Showing posts with label Larry Fitzgerald. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Larry Fitzgerald. Show all posts

Sunday, February 01, 2009

5 NFL Questions: Super Bowl Sunday

Okay, so it's gonna be more like "15 Questions".
What we need from YOU ALL is some answers, before the opening kickoff (if you dare).

***Poll Results***
"Who Will Win the Super Bowl"
Steelers edge the Cardinals 145 votes to 126 (46% to 40%).
For you political junkies, that means there wasn't a plurality.
Why? Because 41 votes came in from people who "Didn't Care".
How many of those were Pay, though?

Next poll is up: Super Bowl MVP.
You have the guys to call it now?
Or before its awarded?

Feel free to check out the following too:
Previews and Pre-Game Analysis
Final Score and MVP Predictions/Projections
Madden Simulation [Super Records SHATTERED!!!]


Checking the "tale of the tape" the average PHSports projection comes out to 27-21 Pittsburgh.
Think you can do better??? Comment and let the record stand!!!

Credit: SportsWarehouse.com


5 "Super" Super Bowl Questions
:
1) What are the respective health and psychological statuses of Cardinal WR Anquan Boldin and Steeler WR Hines Ward?
2) Which QB is more pivotal towards their team winning Super Bowl XLIII (and their second Super Bowl, respectively): Warner or Roethlisberger?
3) I hate to be "that guy"; nevertheless, will we see any of Matt Leinart or Byron Leftwich in this game?
4) Will Edgerrin James or Tim Hightower or even JJ Arrington receive the majority of touches out of the Arizona backfield?
5) Since too many fans (myself included) blame the refs for every loss: which team is getting hosed more often tonight?

5 Arizona Questions:
1) How will Neil Rackers and Ben Graham play in the biggest moments of their respective kicking lives?
2) Can Karlos Dansby put on the top performance - for either team - at the linebacker position?
3) How will Bertrand Berry and Darnell Dockett apply pressure and bring down Big Ben most effectively?
4) Will the tight ends for Arizona be able to do anything of value in the receiving game?
5) Will Kurt Warner protect the ball or become statue-esque?

5 Pittsburgh Questions:
1) Is Ike Taylor a mediocre cornerback or perhaps one of the NFL's most unknown emerging talents?
2) Which of the linebackers - specifically Harrison and Woodley - gives Warner the most anxiety?
3) Will Heath Miller be a redzone target the Cardinals neglect to locate?
4) What's your call for another big play from Santonio Holmes on offense and/or special teams?
5) Will Casey Hampton be able to plug the middle and stiffle the Arizona rush attack from early on?

Man I love this catch. But seriously, who goes from unknown to known in a matter of 60 seconds after today's game? Nate Washington? Jeremy Urban? I know who it won't be...Limas Sweed.
Credit: Google Images

We've seen the previews, the predictions, a Madden simulation, and now 15 questions.
All we have left to do now is enjoy the game.

Check in for quarter-by-quarter analysis and some live streaming.

See you after kickoff!!!

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Super Bowl XLIII Pre-Game Analysis: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona

Pittsburgh Do’s and Don’t’s - Clement:

Do your best to jam Larry Fitzgerald at the line of scrimmage. If Fitzgerald is given too much space, he's going to cause havoc in the worst ways possible. Before you know it, a trick player will be opening up – even with Polamalu's savvy – and Breaston/Boldin will be running deep sideline routes. While Fitzgerald is murder in the redzone, the crossing route allows him plenty of space to rumble. Beware.

Do your best to allow Woodley and Harrison to go 1 on 1 with the Arizona tackles. The Arizona tackles have been the weakest link on the Cardinal line. Harrison, the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, is a sack machine and Woodley may, in fact, be the more talented overall pass rusher. Both are strong and sturdy throughout the game. Arizona will need to mix up protection schemes and their backs – especially the rookie Hightower – better be more than ready to chip. Effective runs to the outside and screens against the blitz are perfect remedies.

Do your best to get Santonio Holmes in open space. If you didn't see his punt return against the Chargers or his YAC-scamper against the Ravens, you missed out. With Ward "dinged" up and Limas Sweed being a PUNK, Holmes may be asked to make 2 or 3 big downfield catches. The best way to free him up isn't with the deep ball though, it's within the 10-15 yard range with space to run. That means Big Ben better be ready to withstand plenty of hits within the pocket.

Don't forget about Anquan Boldin. Larry Fitzgerald may be the best wideout in the NFL; however, Boldin isn't far behind. Sure he's been unhealthy and too much of a primadonna in recent weeks, but Boldin is also a redzone B-E-A-S-T and lethal on the edges. He'll play his heart out and has seen far more bad than good with this franchise. Don't forget just how deadly this duo is.

If the Steelers worry too much about Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin may give them nightmares they won't recover from.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Don't underestimate the talent in the middle of the Cardinal defense. Darnell Dockett, Karlos Dansby, and Adrian Wilson are flat out studs. While there are other playmakers on that side of the ball – see Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie – these three have to seize control of the line of scrimmage, the center of the field, and the deep ball. While Wilson's run stopping abilities aren't too shabby, his ability to lock into a quarterback is highly underrated. Each will need to help their defense for 2-3 Big Ben miscues for the Cardinals to pull off the upset.

Don't forget about "Fast" Willie Parker. The rush game is vital to the Steelers opening up their playbook and putting real pressure on the Cardinals. If Warner struggles early, the Steelers would be wise to pound the Cardinals into submission with the speedy, yet stealthy Parker. Just ask the Seahawks of 2006 how quickly Parker can hit the corner and rush to paydirt. If Parker has 20+ carries, the Steelers should win by two touchdowns.

Don't underestimate the importance of special teams. I don't want to elaborate too much. However, if you can pin the Cardinals inside the 10, you better. Free yardage is the LAST thing you want to give Warner, Fitz, Boldin and company. If Rackers struggles with his kickoffs, burn the Cardinals early and often.


Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s - Sum:

Do
make use of the plethora of bulletin board material out there. You've been underdogs EVERY WEEK of this postseason, and the Super Bowl is no exception with the Steelers as 7 point favorites. Heck, even President Obama wants Pittsburgh to win. That's gotta sting ... now turn that sting into solid play on the field. If Barack won't be bipartisan on Super Sunday, you shouldn't be either.

Do
keep on executing your playoff game plan. I know I've used that one before, but it's working. The shift away from your pass heavy offense (15 more rushes than passes against Carolina; 29 rushes to 28 passes against Philly) gives one playoff veteran (Warner) time to breathe, while another playoff veteran (Edge) gets to prove his worth again. The D has been stout against the run, and it will need to be again this week since Pittsburgh likes to grind it out.

Do
go to Steve Breaston early and often. I expect Pittsburgh's heavy hitters to come out hard early, whacking whoever has the ball. The last thing the Cards need is for Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin to be laid-out by Polamalu and Co. Breaston is a quality receiver, so he can make the catches ... and as evil as this sounds, it's better for him to get upended than Fitz. Plus, with Boldin already hobbling around the field, he'll be an easy target early in the game.

Don’t
expect Kurt Warner to have the same time to throw the ball as he has had in 11 of 12 quarters this postseason (the 3rd quarter of the NFC Championship being the exception). Dick LeBeau has himself a mighty fine defense with an exceptional front seven. They will look to smack Warner around early and often. This is why it will be key to keep running the ball, even if it's with limited success. If you don't, then pack some extra Depends for Kurt.

The Cards had better hope Warner doesn't wear this uniform on Sunday ...

Don't
think that an injury to Roethlisberger will be good for you. Byron Leftwich has proven himself more than capable in his relief appearances this year, particularly in the Monday Night game at Washington. But if Big Ben does go down to an injury, CHANGE YOUR DEFENSIVE SCHEME. Byron is a different quarterback who won't be rattled in the same ways that Ben will be. Still keep the heat on him, but rushing only one extra guy at a time. You WILL need your secondary beefed up if Leftwich comes in the game.

Don’t
buy into this crap comparing Whisenhunt to Jon Gruden of the 2003 Super Bowl. Yes, both took their new teams to face their old teams in the Super Bowl, but there are key differences. First, Oakland promoted Gruden's successor, Bill Callahan, from within and kept Gruden's system intact. Pittsburgh brought a new head coach altogether into the fold and immediately began adapting some of the offense, giving Ben Roethlisberger more responsibilities. Second, Gruden faced his old team the very same year he left them. The Steelers have had 2 seasons to change their Whisenhunt-isms on offense. If the Cards win this game, it will not be due to Pittsburgh using the same signals and playcalls that they used 2 years ago.

Matchups - Armin:

When the Pittsburgh has the Ball:

Hines Ward vs. Roderick Hood & Santonio Holmes vs. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ("DRC")
Hood and DRC have been playing their best football in the playoffs, while Roethlisburger, Ward and Holmes have nothing to prove. The questions remain: Can Hood play that physical game with Ward, and can DRC keep in stride with Holmes. If Ward starts making those tough catches down the stretch, and Holmes gets open for a couple of big plays, Arizona faces a steep uphill battle.

When Arizona has the Ball:

Mike Gandy and Levi Jones vs. James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley
How do you beat Kurt Warner? It's simple. You hit him. Gandy and Jones are up for their toughest task of the season. They must keep NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Harrison, off Kurt Warner. At the same time, they're dealing with Harrison's bookend, Woodley, who is surging during the playoffs. If Gandy and Jones don't step their game up a notch and keep Warner off his back, the Steelers defense will make short work of the Cardinals offense.

Intangibles - Armin:

Super Bowl Experience
Both 2nd year head coaches are in their first Super Bowl in that role. However, Whisenhunt won a Super Bowl as the offensive coordinator for the Steelers and Tomlin won one as the DB coach for the Buccaneers. Which coach will do a better job pulling from his Super Bowl experience? Tomlin also has a bit of an advantage here. He has many players that were on the team during Pittsburgh's triumph in Super Bowl XL. Whisenhunt, on the other hand, has very few who draw upon that experience. Kurt Warner is about all he has. There is no question that Whisenhunt is at an intangible disadvantage. However, the Cards seem to have destiny on their side.

... and the Steelers had better hope Coach Tomlin quits his day job alongside Gregory House

Win It For Pat
Last time around, the Steelers wanted to win it for Jerome. Now, it's the Cards who are the Team of Destiny. Can they muster up enough intestinal fortitude to play like Pat Tillman is standing behind them? Can they win it for Pat? While some don't like cliche's like "Win one for the Gipper", this situation screams for Tillman to be the reason for a franchise he proudly played for to win the Lombardi. Here's hoping that if the Cards are holding that trophy after the game, that they point their fingers to the sky and pay homage to a man who may have been the first in the NFL to say, I WANT to play football for the Arizona Cardinals.

Predictions

Come back tomorrow for final predictions from the PHSports crew...

Sunday, January 18, 2009

InClement Weather: Super Bowl XLIII Approaches...

While I admittedly was in and out of much of the Steelers/Ravens game (it's not like they pay me to do this), I did decide to collect a few thoughts on the two championship games. Luck you, right???

Arizona defeated 32-25 to win the NFC Championship


Darnell Dockett and the Cardinals have to plant Big Ben every time they get the slightest of grips on him. Otherwise, he will make them pay.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) If anyone had Arizona in the Super Bowl at the following points, you are either crazy or a mad genius. Funny how the two intersect so easily.
A) Pre-season
B) After their Thanksgiving meltdown out east in the Linc

C) After the "snow-bowl" BEATDOWN (even with nothing to play for) against the Patsies

D) Before the Atlanta game

E) Before the Carolina game
F) When Philly took the lead 25-24 on that insane TD pass to DeSean Jackson.


2) Kurt Warner proved that even though Peyton Manning won the NFL, there is no more important quarterback to his team than Warner is to his Cardinals. 21-28, 279 yards, and 4 TDs in the franchise's biggest game (and then some) in Arizona. Not to mention the poise on that last drive. Wow.

3) Tim Hightower, a 5th round pick, couldn't handle being "the man" in Arizona down the stretch. Nevertheless, thanks to guys like Edgerrin James (more on him later), he's a rookie making major contributions on a Super Bowl team.

4) Edgerrin James had to leave Peyton Manning and Indianapolis and go out west - to the desert of Arizona - to get his Super Bowl trip. Funny, eh?

5) Larry Fitzgerald is worth the price of admission. I hope Anquan prays he's both healthy and Todd Haley wants him heavily involved in two weeks.

6) Donovan F. McNabb showed a lot of class, poise, and even a smile or two Sunday afternoon. Philly fans still don't deserve him.

7) Andy Reid is 1-4 in NFC Title games. Question is: how many of those "should" his teams have won?

8) DeSean Jackson is electric. I hope he's not a flash-in-the-pan wideout/returner.

9) Assante Samuel wasn't himself Sunday afternoon. Neither was Brian Dawkins.

10) That was a pass interference call the refs missed. You know the play. However, Curtis knows he had to somehow still catch that ball and the Eagles know they left that game on the field. They didn't lose because of the refs.


Pittsburgh defeated Baltimore 24-13 to win the AFC Championship

Joe Flacco didn't lay the biggest turd on the field Sunday. Instead, this guy was the biggest turd. And it wasn't even close. Nice job faking an injury.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Two Super Bowls in five years for Big Ben. Not too shabby.

2) Troy Polamalu doesn't care who anyone considers the best safety in the NFL, he just delivers when it matters most.

3) Hines Ward's health will be a major factor come two weeks.

4) Don't automatically assume Pittsburgh will cakewalk their way to Super Bowl XLIII. They won't.

5) LaMarr Woodley looked a lot more today like the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year.

6) Props to Terrell Suggs on a gritty effort.

7) Ray Lewis deserves better quarterbacks. Plain and simple.

8) Joe Flacco was exposed for what he truly is: a nice kid who is not going to be a very productive NFL quarterback in crunch time.

9) Prayers out to Willis McGahee.

10) Ryan Clark led with his helmet and may have broken a man's neck. Of course, he didn't mean to hurt someone. Nevertheless, that was helmet to helmet and a devastating illegal hit. He's lucky his own neck didn't break. The only realistic, sensible, and fair punishment is a suspension for the Super Bowl. However, the NFL is gutless - especially when dealing with top-tier organizations - and won't lift a finger to even fine Clark. Roger Goodell is a sham and probably a crook for not dealing with situations just like these. It makes his organization cower to the owners and the franchises. Pathetic. Speaking of which, Walt Coleman's crew should be ashamed of themselves for allowing such a hit to go unpenalized. Ashamed.

Congrats to both teams. Except Limas Sweed. Who clearly faked an injury after dropping a crucial potential touchdown pass. I hurt too when I blow easy touchdowns. Everyone in the room (in houses across the nation) knew he was gonna fake an injury too. Even Nantz (an idiot altogether) knew his pride was hurt and nothing more. He will forever be a yellow-bellied coward. And a faker. And butterfingers. Loser.

By the way, please don't be that Steelers fan who thinks his team is 100% class and Sweed was genuinley hurt. Don't be so naieve.



Think I'm angry? Not at all. But seriously, how did this movie make over $30-million on opening weekend? Aren't we in a recession???
Credit: IMDB.com

Thursday, January 15, 2009

NFL Championship Weekend Pre-Game Analysis: Philadelphia at Arizona

Philadelphia Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do knock the stuffing out of Kurt Warner. Yes ... I'm repeating myself ... AGAIN. Neither Atlanta nor Carolina listened to me and see what happened to them. Props go to Mike Florio at PFT who reminded the world of 12/01/2002 ... the day the Eagles showed the world how to stop Kurt Warner.

Do pay close attention to the common mistakes that Atlanta and Carolina made on offense against the Cardinals. Atlanta ran 24 times and threw the ball 40 times. Carolina ran the ball 15 times and went to the air 35 times. That equates to 2 key mistakes made by each of Arizona's postseason opponents thus far: 1) Forfeiting any chance at winning the time of possession battle; 2) Stepping away from what they did best (which was running the football). Don't go all pass happy (HINT ... that message is for Andy Reid), but at the same time, don't give up what you do best. So incorporate those screens to Westbrook and Buckhalter ... but let them run it up the gut too.

Do make use of DeSean Jackson in every aspect of the passing game. That means, let him run quick slants, let him run some out patterns, and definitely let him just sprint downfield a few times. Arizona has some talented DBs (read: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), and moving your most talented WR to different spots throughout the game will enable him to keep the secondary guessing.

Don’t let Larry Fitzgerald get you down. He WILL make some phenomenal catches throughout the game, even if you have 5 guys covering him. So WHEN he makes those catches, pat him on the ass and compliment him ... but only after you've tackled him HARD. The other key is to force all of his catches to be tough grabs ... do NOT leave him wide open (like Carolina did all day long).

Don’t let Donovan McNabb forget the benching. Dude has been playing with a massive chip on his shoulder since the Baltimore game. He should have carried that chip since the T.O. drama unfolded in Philly ... but he didn't. Now that he is carrying it, don't let him forget it ... as long as it's there, McNabb will remember that he has something to prove ... and it can only be proven with a victory on February 1, 2009.

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do keep the motivation up. Nobody expected you to win against Atlanta 2 weeks ago, let alone be hosting the NFC Championship game. You were underdogs at home to Atlanta and were 9.5 point underdogs to the Panthers. After two impressive wins, you are at home again, and AGAIN are underdogs to the Eagles (by 3.5 points). If that's not locker room board material, I don't know what is.

Do keep on executing your playoff game plan. On offense you have mixed it up quite a bit, and actually ran the ball 15 more times than you passed it last week! The shift away from a pass-heavy offense has befuddled opponents thus far. On defense, the incredible showing thus far has everyone drawing comparison's to the transformation that the 2006 Colts defense went through between the regular and post seasons. Stick to the game plan this week ... it's worked so far, why shouldn't it work again?

Do watch the Redskins/Eagles game from December 21. Washington played a very effective scheme against the Eagles. Even if the receivers hadn't dropped a half-dozen of McNabb's passes, the Skins were the only team to effectively contain McNabb and his offense after Week 12.

Don’t expect Larry Fitzgerald to have the same game this week as he did last week, especially if Anquan Boldin isn't back in the lineup. Philly has one of the best (if not the best) secondaries in the NFL. There will not be many (or potentially any) wide gaps for Warner to find Fitz through this week. The only way to create the mismatches is to spread the ball around early.

Don’t ignore either Edge or Tim Hightower. Last week Edge had 3 more carries than Timmy, but finished with 19-yards less. That's OK. The youth/experience 1-2 punch will serve you well in trying to wear down Philadelphia's front seven. If each back runs at least 15 times at the Philly D, those guys will be dead tired in the 4th quarter.

Key Matchups:

When Philadelphia has the ball
Rookie WR DeSean Jackson vs. Rookie CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Both young men were highlighted by Armin in his Rookie Year End Report, although Jackson didn't make the top-10 for his side of the ball. Cromartie, on the other hand, was the #3 defensive rookie, by Armin's standards. These two young stars will definitely go head-to-head at least a few times on Sunday, and the outcome could very well hinge on whether Jackson beats Cromartie for a TD, or whether Dominique out-leaps DeSean for an INT.

When Arizona has the ball
QB Kurt Warner vs. DEs Trent Cole and Darren Howard
This was actually a tough call, because the WR/DB matchups will be solid as well when the Cards have the rock. However, in order for the receivers and the secondary to have a chance to battle it out, Kurt Warner will have to be able to get the ball downfield. Trent Cole and Darren Howard, however, have other plans for the future spokesperson for Depends. The two DEs combined for 19 sacks on the season, and they have a coordinator in Jim Johnson who has a PhD in bringing the pressure on opposing QBs. If Warner can avoid the pressure, it will be a tiring day for the Eagles secondary. If, however, Warner is reminded of that cold Philly day in December 2002 when he was sacked 8 times and picked off twice ... well then I guess the Eagles will be going to Tampa.

The product endorsements will never end ...

Intangibles:

Start Time
So I made a mistake last week. Okay, I made many mistakes last week. However, the one I'm thinking about is when I focused so much attention on Arizona's poor performances on the East Coast. What made it a mistake was that I ignored the fact that all of the Cardinals games out east in the regular season had 1 PM start times, whereas last week's game was in primetime. As one of the Fox commentators noted (sorry, can't remember which one), Kurt Warner has a fairly elaborate and intricate routine on gamedays, which involves studying game film, going over the playbook, time for personal reflection, as well as other components. A 1 PM game on the East Coast translates to a 10 AM game out west, thus compressing the time that Warner has to prepare for kickoff. So, the question for this week becomes: will a 12 Noon kickoff time give Warner enough time to go through his normal routine?

Injuries
Yes, this is a cliché intangible. However, I'm only using it in reference to two players: Anquan Boldin and Brian Westbrook. The extent to which each athlete, and therefore able to perform to the best of his ability, will determine how effective his offense will be. At the same time, both teams have proved themselves capable to win without these star players. But this is no ordinary game, this is the Conference Championship ... and both defensive units will be out for blood. Arizona needs Boldin to play at full strength and Philadelphia needs a solid showing by Westbrook.

Sum Picking Arizona Playoff Games
I have now picked the Cardinals to lose each playoff game, and have been wrong twice. Will the opposite of my prediction occur again? Look down to see what I say ... and you may want to place money on the exact opposite result.

Final Score Prediction:
Philadelphia's defense powers the way to another attempt at the Super Bowl: 27-13.

Thursday, January 08, 2009

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Arizona at Carolina

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do follow Edge's hot hand. He and Kurt Warner have legit playoff experience, and Edge proved that he is still a force to be reckoned with last week. Carolina's run D may be better than Atlanta's, but a committment to the run helps out the aged Warner.

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Yes, this is a repeat from last week, but it worked against Michael "Burner" Turner, and the Panthers have an incredible two-headed beast in the running game. If both DeAngelo and The Daily Show are stymied early, John Fox may panic and become too reliant on Jake Delhomme.

Do pray for Anquan Boldin's health. Yes, Steve Breaston is a capabable WR2 ... but he's no Quan. Plus, Boldin was a bright spot in the regular season matchup against the Panthers, where he caught 9 passes for 63 yards and 2 TDs and had a 30 yard scamper on his sole rushing attempt. And that was just his first game back from his earlier injuries.

Don’t be afraid to use Kurt Warner's arm this week. Warner torched the Carolina secondary for 381 yards in the first game, and probably can get near that total again if Boldin plays. I may dog Warner from time to time, but he does have the playoff wisdom and experience, and it would be smart to rely on him here ... just as he relies on his Depends.

Don’t let Jake Delhomme get comfortable. Remember, this is the guy that only managed 72 passing yards against Oakland and only 102 yards against Detroit. He only threw 3 more TDs than INTs on the season. In other words, his mistakes are your keys to winning ... period.

Carolina
Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do knock the stuffing out of Kurt Warner. Atlanta didn't listen to me and see what happened to them. Put grandpa on his derrier early and often, or at least hurry him before Fitzgerald and Co. have time to break free in the secondary.

Do what you do best ... run the damn ball. Yes, it's a simplistic point, but a key one. Atlanta only ran the ball 24 times (including 4 rushes by Matt Ryan) compared with 40 passing attempts. You will lose 7/10 playoff games if you stick to that math. Even if the run sputters early, stay committed to it. If you can achieve the same 29-rush/28-pass balance that you had in the regular season, you'll be in the NFC Championship Game next weekend.

Do get the crowd involved early. Arizona thrived off its fans cheers last week ... at least that's what Cris Collinsworth kept telling me. So if fan cheers can motivate Arizona's D to play above its potential, logic dictates that negative fan reactions (read: BOOO's) should make them play like the team that gave up 56 points to the Jets.

Don’t forget to feed DE Charles Johnson his Wheaties before the game. The relatively quiet lineman notched 2 sacks and a forced fumble in the Week 8 contest. It will take efforts from all members of the defense to stop the potentially high-powered Cardinals offense, just like it did 11 weeks ago.

Don’t be too afraid to rely on Jake Delhomme. He may not be the same QB who took you to the Super Bowl where you got to see Janet Jackson's boobie, and he may have struggled against teams like the Lions (the LIONS!?!?!?) this season, but he can put on a show when necessary. Just build up his confidence early with a few simple passes, and he'll remember that he's kind of a big deal.

Key Matchups:

When Arizona has the ball
OTs Levi Brown & Mike Gandy vs. DEs Charles Johnson and Julius Peppers
As I noted above, and as I've noted every time I've spoken about Kurt Warner, if he gets time he's a beast to the other team, but if he's rushed/hurried then he's a beast to his own team. Johnson had solid success against Levi Brown in Week 8, but Peppers was limited to just 3 tackles, no sacks and no passes defensed by Gandy. If the OTs can limit these defensive linemen to a max of 1 sack and only a handful of hurries, the Cardinals should do well.

When Carolina has the ball
RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart vs. OLB Karlos Dansby
Maybe I'm slighting the Arizona D-Line a bit (I hereby give you permission to use this as bulletin board material) since that unit did a lot to stop Michael Turner last week. However, Karlos Dansby scored 8 tackles (6 solo), 3 of which were for a loss. Working against Dansby's favor is that the Panthers have two reliable running backs, thereby enabling them to keep their RB fresh while Dansby will grow tired as the game goes on. Working in Dansby's favor is the Week 8 game where he logged 9 tackles (6 solo), a sack and a forced fumble. This should be good.

Intangibles:

Jet Lag
0-5. That's Arizona's record in road games outside the NFC West. This team just does not travel well outside its time zone. I will give Coach Whisenhunt props for trying to be creative this year by opting to stay on the East Coast between his team's games against the Redskins and Jets. Of course, that resulted in giving up 56 points to the Jets and losing Anquan Boldin for a few weeks ... but it was creative. The Cardinals need to get past the mental road block against their East Coast slide, or else this game is already over.

Consistency
Both teams had some impressive wins this season. Carolina can look to its crushing of Denver, the Week 1 squeaker against San Diego, and can even take some pride in its loss in the slobberknocker of a game against the Giants. Arizona takes pride in its demolishing of Buffalo (in the first half of the season when the Bills were still good), its quality early season win against Dallas, and decent performances against the Giants and Panthers. However, each team also had some mind-boggling games as well. Carolina has to deal with the thrashing handed out by Tampa Bay in Week 6, the 17-point loss to Atlanta in Week 12, and the fact that they only beat Detroit by 9-points. Arizona, of course, got "blowed out" by the Jets, the Vikings, and the Patriots. The time for inconsistent play is gone, it's the playoffs.

Final Score Prediction:
Carolina wins, 31-23.

Thursday, January 01, 2009

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Atlanta at Arizona

Atlanta Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do allow Matt Ryan to tee it up deep to Michael Jenkins and Roddy White a few times. Arizona's pass defense was ranked 22nd in the league and can be picked on within reason.

Do give Jerious Norwood his 10 touches. I don't know if the guy can handle the load of a starter, but he is one of the most explosive backups in the league, and he should be able to break either a run or a screen pass for a long gain if given the opportunity.

Do pressure Kurt Warner early and hard. Kurt fell into the "extended slump" portion of his career via getting rushed and hit hard ... remind him of those hits or else he'll make you pay.

Don’t ignore Tim Hightower. He's like the boogey man ... if you shine the lights on him, he can't hurt you.

Don’t be afraid to play with 5 DBs on occasion. Kurt Warner knows how to find open receivers, even if it's the 3rd Down RB or the backup TE.

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do make use of Steve Breaston early. If he becomes a factor in the first half, it'll force Atlanta to divert their attention from Fitzgerald/Boldin or even Hightower onto Breaston, and will open up the field even more.

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Atlanta relies heavily on the rushing attack to open up the passing game and allow rookie QB Matt Ryan to ease into his "ice mode." If Arizona can stymie the run game early and force Matty Ryan to go to the air too early, it's their best chance.

Do get fancy on special teams. Maybe let Larry Fitzgerald return a kickoff or punt, or something. This is playoff time ... roll up your sleeves and be creative.

Don’t rely on Kurt Warner's aged arm early in the game. The running game isn't the Cards bread nor their butter, however if they can establish 3.5 ypc early on, it'll keep the Atlanta D on its toes.

Don’t forget that you're an NFC West team playing an NFC South team. The NFC West was arguably the weakest conference in the league this year, so even though Arizona has home field, it hardly has an advantage in this game ... play like you're the lower seed with a chip on your shoulder.

Key Matchups:

When Atlanta has the ball
RB Michael Turner vs. OLB Karlos Dansby
As I noted above, Atlanta must establish it's running attack to ease the transition to playoff mode for Matt Ryan. But Arizona will undoubtedly have Karlos Dansby breathing down Michael Turner's neck from the getgo. Dansby had 119 tackles on the season, leading the Cardinals. If Turner can escape, this game won't be close.

When Arizona has the ball
QB Kurt Warner vs. The Entire Atlanta Defense
It's no secret: Atlanta's defense is not that good. Ranked 24th overall, 21st against the pass and 25th against the run. For an experienced play maker like Kurt Warner, this should be a lot of fun. Atlanta will have to realize that Warner will make a few plays on them, but if Warner cannot lead his offense to TDs on 2 of the Cardinals first 3 possessions, that'll be a victory for Atlanta's D.

Intangibles:

Time Travel
No, not like Uncle Rico and Napoleon. However, Atlanta is traveling from the Eastern Time Zone to the Pacific. No team got screwed as much by jet lag and travel this year as the Arizona Cardinals. This is, perhaps, where home field might actually be an advantage for the Cards as it protects them from traveling east for the game. Maybe it's payback time...

Motivation
As I mentioned in the FourCast this past week, the Falcons have definitely been through the ringer from the Vick through the Petrino fiascos. Yet this year, the team has been on a mission to shake off the bitter past, and that mission has led them into the playoffs. Arizona, on the other hand, is finally back in the playoffs after years of futility. Which head coach will be able to inspire his team prior to the coin-flip?

Final Score Prediction:
Atlanta wins, 24-20.