Showing posts with label Jake Delhomme. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jake Delhomme. Show all posts

Thursday, January 08, 2009

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Arizona at Carolina

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do follow Edge's hot hand. He and Kurt Warner have legit playoff experience, and Edge proved that he is still a force to be reckoned with last week. Carolina's run D may be better than Atlanta's, but a committment to the run helps out the aged Warner.

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Yes, this is a repeat from last week, but it worked against Michael "Burner" Turner, and the Panthers have an incredible two-headed beast in the running game. If both DeAngelo and The Daily Show are stymied early, John Fox may panic and become too reliant on Jake Delhomme.

Do pray for Anquan Boldin's health. Yes, Steve Breaston is a capabable WR2 ... but he's no Quan. Plus, Boldin was a bright spot in the regular season matchup against the Panthers, where he caught 9 passes for 63 yards and 2 TDs and had a 30 yard scamper on his sole rushing attempt. And that was just his first game back from his earlier injuries.

Don’t be afraid to use Kurt Warner's arm this week. Warner torched the Carolina secondary for 381 yards in the first game, and probably can get near that total again if Boldin plays. I may dog Warner from time to time, but he does have the playoff wisdom and experience, and it would be smart to rely on him here ... just as he relies on his Depends.

Don’t let Jake Delhomme get comfortable. Remember, this is the guy that only managed 72 passing yards against Oakland and only 102 yards against Detroit. He only threw 3 more TDs than INTs on the season. In other words, his mistakes are your keys to winning ... period.

Carolina
Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do knock the stuffing out of Kurt Warner. Atlanta didn't listen to me and see what happened to them. Put grandpa on his derrier early and often, or at least hurry him before Fitzgerald and Co. have time to break free in the secondary.

Do what you do best ... run the damn ball. Yes, it's a simplistic point, but a key one. Atlanta only ran the ball 24 times (including 4 rushes by Matt Ryan) compared with 40 passing attempts. You will lose 7/10 playoff games if you stick to that math. Even if the run sputters early, stay committed to it. If you can achieve the same 29-rush/28-pass balance that you had in the regular season, you'll be in the NFC Championship Game next weekend.

Do get the crowd involved early. Arizona thrived off its fans cheers last week ... at least that's what Cris Collinsworth kept telling me. So if fan cheers can motivate Arizona's D to play above its potential, logic dictates that negative fan reactions (read: BOOO's) should make them play like the team that gave up 56 points to the Jets.

Don’t forget to feed DE Charles Johnson his Wheaties before the game. The relatively quiet lineman notched 2 sacks and a forced fumble in the Week 8 contest. It will take efforts from all members of the defense to stop the potentially high-powered Cardinals offense, just like it did 11 weeks ago.

Don’t be too afraid to rely on Jake Delhomme. He may not be the same QB who took you to the Super Bowl where you got to see Janet Jackson's boobie, and he may have struggled against teams like the Lions (the LIONS!?!?!?) this season, but he can put on a show when necessary. Just build up his confidence early with a few simple passes, and he'll remember that he's kind of a big deal.

Key Matchups:

When Arizona has the ball
OTs Levi Brown & Mike Gandy vs. DEs Charles Johnson and Julius Peppers
As I noted above, and as I've noted every time I've spoken about Kurt Warner, if he gets time he's a beast to the other team, but if he's rushed/hurried then he's a beast to his own team. Johnson had solid success against Levi Brown in Week 8, but Peppers was limited to just 3 tackles, no sacks and no passes defensed by Gandy. If the OTs can limit these defensive linemen to a max of 1 sack and only a handful of hurries, the Cardinals should do well.

When Carolina has the ball
RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart vs. OLB Karlos Dansby
Maybe I'm slighting the Arizona D-Line a bit (I hereby give you permission to use this as bulletin board material) since that unit did a lot to stop Michael Turner last week. However, Karlos Dansby scored 8 tackles (6 solo), 3 of which were for a loss. Working against Dansby's favor is that the Panthers have two reliable running backs, thereby enabling them to keep their RB fresh while Dansby will grow tired as the game goes on. Working in Dansby's favor is the Week 8 game where he logged 9 tackles (6 solo), a sack and a forced fumble. This should be good.

Intangibles:

Jet Lag
0-5. That's Arizona's record in road games outside the NFC West. This team just does not travel well outside its time zone. I will give Coach Whisenhunt props for trying to be creative this year by opting to stay on the East Coast between his team's games against the Redskins and Jets. Of course, that resulted in giving up 56 points to the Jets and losing Anquan Boldin for a few weeks ... but it was creative. The Cardinals need to get past the mental road block against their East Coast slide, or else this game is already over.

Consistency
Both teams had some impressive wins this season. Carolina can look to its crushing of Denver, the Week 1 squeaker against San Diego, and can even take some pride in its loss in the slobberknocker of a game against the Giants. Arizona takes pride in its demolishing of Buffalo (in the first half of the season when the Bills were still good), its quality early season win against Dallas, and decent performances against the Giants and Panthers. However, each team also had some mind-boggling games as well. Carolina has to deal with the thrashing handed out by Tampa Bay in Week 6, the 17-point loss to Atlanta in Week 12, and the fact that they only beat Detroit by 9-points. Arizona, of course, got "blowed out" by the Jets, the Vikings, and the Patriots. The time for inconsistent play is gone, it's the playoffs.

Final Score Prediction:
Carolina wins, 31-23.

Tuesday, September 02, 2008

2008 Season NFL Predictions

Last year I began what I hoped would become an annual tradition. Making my NFL regular season and playoff predictions by going through and picking a winner in each of the 256 games played during the regular season. Following that, I determine which teams make the playoffs by handling all tie-breakers according to NFL rules. And unlike many other "professional" sports writers, I held myself accountable before the next season, taking myself to task when I f'd up, and patting myself on the back for the few correct things (like picking the Chiefs to go 4-12).

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2008-2009 NFL Season, berate them as you must:

NFC

NFC East

*Dallas 13-3

**Philadelphia 10-6

NY Giants 8-8

Washington 6-10

Dallas is clearly the class of this division. The high powered offense plus the mean defense means another dominant season for Jerry Jones’ squad. Meanwhile, the Iggles should be back behind D-McNabb and Westbrook. The Giants defense is too banged up to be able to drag the offense into the playoffs again. And the Redskins will have growing pains under first year coach Jim Zorn.

NFC North

*Minnesota 12-4

Green Bay 8-8

Chicago 5-11

Detroit 4-12

Minnesota should do very well this season, despite having Tarvaris Jackson at the helm. But if he plays the “Trent Dilfer” role, then the Vikes will be atop the Norris division again. Green Bay will perform decently as Aaron Rodgers gets used to leading the team, but they’ll be better next year. Chicago is slightly less abysmal with Orton at QB. Detroit … well, Matt Millen will somehow avoid being fired.

NFC South

*Carolina 11-5

**New Orleans 10-6

Tampa Bay 7-9

Atlanta 4-12

Carolina will work out some early season kinks and Delhomme will find his touch just in time to guide the Panthers well. The Saints will also be back in the mix of things with their high-powered offense and average defense. Tampa will try a few different QBs and stumble their way through a sub-par season. Atlanta may finish with the same record as last year, but they’ll be a stronger team as Matt Ryan gets his NFL education.

NFC West

*Seattle 12-4

San Francisco 6-10

Arizona 6-10

St. Louis 5-11

A piss poor division to say the least. Seattle is a solid team surrounded by mediocrity. The Hawks will follow their defense and a running back by committee routine to the top of the division. San Fran will have a steady hand in J.T. O’Sullivan, but will have enough troubles to avoid achieving success. The Cardinals are still mired in their QB controversy, and I don’t see it going away. The Rams … well, they need an overhaul at WR and QB.

Tie breaker note: MIN gets the 2-seed due to a better in-conference record than SEA; NO gets the 5-seed by virtue of a better won-lost-tied percentage than PHI in common games.

AFC

AFC East

*New England 13-3

NY Jets 9-7

Buffalo 5-11

Miami 5-11

The Pats will not finish undefeated again, an aging defense will stop that from happening. However, they’re still atop the AFC and will dominate the East. The Jets will bounce back from the garbage they fed their fans last year, but the vanilla offense led by Favre will be figured out by teams as the season goes on. Buffalo and Miami are both better than their records suggest, but each still has some bugs to work out before they can crack an 8-8 season.

AFC North

*Pittsburgh 10-6

Cleveland 8-8

Cincinnati 5-11

Baltimore 4-12

Pittsburgh wins this division, almost by default. Even with a diminished offensive line, they should win out here. Cleveland isn’t as bad as their 8-8 finish, but they won’t be in contention for the playoffs this year. Anderson’s magical ride will start to turn sour and we’ll see the rise of Brady Quinn. Cincy may or may not have Chad Ocho Cinco, depending on his torn labrum, but even with him, the defense is too weak to have much success in the AFC. The Ravens are too green on the offense and too old on the defense.

AFC South

*Indianapolis 12-4

**Jacksonville 11-5

Tennessee 9-7

Houston 7-9

The Colts have a nice strangle-hold on the South … even though they’re in the Midwest. Peyton has plenty of targets, and he’ll make use of all of them. The Jaguars like what they have on the offense, and Matt Jones may finally emerge as a solid receiver. The Titans need Vince Young to learn to throw the ball before they become a truly serious threat. Houston will need to solve its running back quartet before they can truly expect to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.

AFC West

*San Diego 13-3

**Denver 11-5

Oakland 4-12

Kansas City 3-13

Norv Turner may just have a heart attack. Poor guy isn’t used to this success thing, but when L.T. leads your team, it’s hard not to find it. I expect Denver to have a solid season with Jay Cutler having his diabetes under control and finding rhythm with both Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Oakland’s record is tied to the health of Darren McFadden and the use of outlet receivers by JaMarcus Russell. Kansas City is just bad. Barring a return to glory by L.J., they’ll be worse than last year.

Tie breaker note: NE gets the 1 seed by virtue of a head-to-head win over SD. JAC gets the 5-seed due to a head-to-head win over DEN.

Wildcard Playoffs (winner in Italics)

Philadelphia at Seattle – Seattle has had an awesome home advantage in the playoffs in recent history. That continues against the more talented Philly team.

New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina let the Saints win the regular season finale since that really wouldn’t affect their playoff stance. However, the real Carolina team shows up this time.

Denver at Indianapolis – Cutler performs remarkably throughout the season, and gives Peyton a run for his money in this match-up. Ultimately, however, the Colts are a far more complete team than the Broncos.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – Garrard and MoJoDro lead the way as the Steelers don’t even put up a real fight.

Divisional Playoffs

Carolina at Dallas – Another year, another playoff disappointment for Tony Romo. Marion Barber, III plays his heart out, but in the end it’ll be the two-headed rushing attack of Carolina that’ll leave T.O. in tears again.

Seattle at Minnesota – Seattle’s defensive line will put way too much pressure on Tarvaris Jackson to allow the mediocre QB to do anything other than hand the ball off. The lack of a passing game will be enough to allow Seattle to squeak by the Vikes.

Jacksonville at New England – Wow. This AFC Divisional round looks kinda similar, no? The result of this portion will look similar as well, with Tom Brady looking picture perfect in a nail-biter against the talented Jags.

Indianapolis at San Diego – This half of the AFC Divisional round, however, won’t be a repeat. Indy romps the Bolts in San Diego, setting up football’s equivalent of Nadal vs. Federer in the AFC Championship game.

Conference Finals

Seattle at Carolina – The Panthers return to the Super Bowl, this time following the lead of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Delhomme likes having more than one option at WR, and guides his team past a stingy Seattle defense.

Indianapolis at New England – Tom Brady has one thing on his mind … another Super Bowl ring. Joe Cool, Jr. is up to the task and directs his less talented team to a nice victory in the frigid Massachusetts weather.

Super Bowl

Carolina vs. New England – I don’t like predicting repeats of recent Super Bowls (especially if there’s no chance of a repeated wardrobe malfunction), but I guess I’m really high on the Panthers this season. On paper, the Panthers should win this one with their strong offense against the aging Pats defense. But that won’t happen. New England makes up for it’s crappy play in the last Super Bowl and wins this one 24-20.