Afterthoughts: MMQB

Straight from the horse's mouth. Of course, that horse is really a jackass. Except today, for some reason.

More "escaped inmates" on Revis Island this weekend.
Credit: Profootball.scout.com

A cornerback can’t play much better than Darrelle Revis did Sunday.
“We’ve got a ton of respect for Revis,” Philip Rivers told me Friday at the Chargers’ training facility, “but we’re not going to avoid him. We’ll take some shots at him.”

Oh really? Rivers went back to pass 45 times (40 passes, two sacks, three runs after being chased from the pocket), and I charted Revis’ coverage pattern on every one of Rivers’ pass-drops. By my count, Rivers threw four passes into the zone where Revis had primary coverage, or to the man Revis was playing man-to-man. One was complete, to LaDainian Tomlinson, for a loss of four yards. One, to Legadu Naanee, was batted down by a diving Revis on a cross route. One, to Vincent Jackson, a deep pass up the left seam, was overthrown, with Revis and Jackson running stride for stride. And the fourth, to Jackson, was up for grabs between the two, with Revis coming down with a juggled ball for an interception in a spectacular play.

Four times Rivers went at Revis in 45 pass calls. One completion, for minus-four. One interception. You cannot play the position better than Revis played it Sunday. I don’t care if you’re Deion Sanders or Night Train Lane. Revis put on a clinic, a masterful display of clinging coverage and bump-and-run when the situation called for it.
“We were playing a lot of man coverage on his side regardless who the receiver was,”Rex Ryan said, “and on the other side we were running some loaded zones and mixes and things like that. He had the tough guy most of the time.”

I told Revis the numbers in the tunnel after the game, just before he boarded the team buses for the airport. “I guess they gave me a lot of respect. It’s my job, to cover guys, and I hope I do it pretty well.”

More than pretty well.

5 NFL Questions - Divisional Round Sunday

After yesterday's subpar effort, you still get 5 Questions for EACH game. Lucky you, right?

Philadelphia Eagles @ NY Giants [1pm, FOX]

When will Asante Samuel get his pick-six?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Who will do a better job with ball security today: Donovan McNabb or Eli Manning?
2) Who will have the greater deep-ball/special teams impact: DeSean Jackson or Domenik Hixon?
3) Which platoon-back will have more touches: Correll Buckhalter or Derrick Ward?
4) Which kicker may be asked to nail a game-winning in blistery winds in the final moments of the game: David Akers or John Carney?
5) Will the Eagles suffer with a lack of a redzone rush offense?

San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers [4:45 pm, CBS]

Last week it was AP MVP Peyton Manning. How about AP Defensive Player of the Year next?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Is Darren Sproles officially ready for playoff immortality?
2) What type of magic does Troy Polamalu have up his "playoff" sleeve?
3) Is Antonio Gates back to elite TE (aka "you better double cover me every play") status.
4) Which team will lose BOTH the turnover and the penalty battle?
5) What affect will the weather have on the West Coast Bolts?

Enjoy the games...

InClement Weather: Saturday Night Live

No, I'm not talking about the "remember when it was funny" sketch comedy show.

Instead, it's time to rant...late-night style.

Arizona defeats Atlanta 30-24

If Edgerrin James can perform as well next week as he did against the Falcons, the Cardinals - whether at Carolina/New York, will be a tough opponent.
Credit: Yahoo Sports!

1) Kurt Warner may have lost the MVP the last two months of the season; however, he delivered a (home) playoff win to Arizona. No other quarterback has ever done that.
2) Karlos Dansby was highlighted by Sum brilliantly. A+++ analysis, my friend.
3) Matty "Ice" wasn't amazing in his first playoff game, but he showed plenty to prove it won't be his last.
4) Roddy White is an absolute beast.
5) Keith Brooking is going to have nightmares about giving up that 3rd down. Nightmares.

San Diego defeats Indianapolis 23-17 (OT)

Right where he belongs. Yes, he's a Hall of Famer. One of the top RBs ever. But he's also - more than ever - an absolute B-A-B-Y.
Credit: BigMattress.com

1) Sorry hockey fans, but I love me some playoff OT football the best. Oh yeah, hockey sucks.
2) Darren Sproles has earned himself a few extra million in free agency, even if he stays put.
3) The Indianapolis defense yet again let the organization down. Bob Sanders isn't Polamalu, Ed Reed, or Brian Dawkins.
4) I'll still take a healthy Tom Brady any day over Peyton Manning. While Peyton deserved the MVP, his playoff performance year in and year out doesn't amaze me. His only TD-toss tonight was a gimmick. Brady has more poise, patience, and stability. Remember, I HATE THE PATRIOTS. Manning is a stud QB and one of the all-time greats, but there's a reason that he doesn't have 3 Super Bowls like Tom Brady. And it isn't just Belichick.
5) Tony Dungy is a class-act, but he might be done in Indianapolis. Another great season ends in playoff dissapointment. I'm glad he EARNED his ring, but Dungy and Manning won't get another together, especially if the aforementioned Brady returns 100%.

...NFL Rule-Changes...
A) The play clock needs to be shortened. With 2 minutes to go in the game, you shouldn't be able to down the ball three times and run out the clock. Shorten the clock to 30 seconds if need be.
B) I understand why if a player doesn't go down, they blow the whistle. It's to protect the player. However, if you refuse to go down, I say let the play go until you go down. Maybe that's too NFL Blitz-like, but I am tired of "judgment down-by-contact plays" when someone is still fighting for yardage.
C) Intentional grounding is a joke. Rivers flung the ball at Jacob Hester's back foot while being engulfed by Mathis. This rule is far too subjective. If the receiver "in the vicinity" isn't looking for the ball whatsoever, it's intentional grounding.

Hope you enjoyed Sunday. Two home "dogs" took home important Ws for their franchise. So much for the "experts". 8-8 and 9-7 don't look pretty on paper; yet, both of these teams are dangerous. Very very dangerous.

Enjoy tomorrow!!!!

...one final LT-rant...
LT is an absolute baby. If he isn't 100%, he sits out. Or even worse, he tries and then takes himself out. Why? Because he's a baby. It's no surprise though, not anymore at least. I firmly 100% believe he plans out thinking he'll play until it hurts too much. That way he doesn't get chewed out because "he tried". He needs to change into street clothes or take the pads off if he won't return. It's not like an injury will force him back in either. Why else is Michael Bennett given carries in the playoffs for the first time all season???

Now I don't need anyone to explain what was hurting the last two playoff games. I get they were injuries. But I refuse to buy that he didn't demand to be on the field the past two seasons. In fact, he demanded to do just enough to not be active. If you can warm-up and take snaps, play through not being able to make "those cuts" and leave your blood and guts out on the field.

Plenty of other players have played through far more pain. Chad Pennington beat your Chargers (Jets plug!) with a torn rotator cuff. Think that hurt?

People can mock a guy like Emmitt Smith all day long (and they should for some of the ridiculously-idiotic stuff he says on TV), but he played through pain. And I'm not just talking about the seperated shoulder in the Meadowlands. Walter Payton always played through it too. You think an injury would've shut him down in 1985? Nope nope nope. Just like so many of the greats did.

LT, take it from your QB and play through the pain in order to win a championship. Otherwise, the baby stroller stays.

NFL WildCard Weekend: Saturday's 5 Questions

..5 Questions for EACH Game...

Atlanta @ Arizona [4:30 pm]
1) Can the Cardinals win without any legitimacy to their rush offense?
2) Will Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals be able to overcome an abysmal December and win their first playoff game at home since the Bronze Age?
3) How do the Falcons plan to prepare for the talented three wideouts - Fitzgerald, Boldin, & Breaston - wearing Cardinal uniforms?
4) Will Matt Ryan officially show the world who "Matty Ice" is?
5) How many yards do you have for runner-up for the MVP Michael Turner against a suspect Cardinals rush D?

Colts @ Chargers [8 pm]
1) How much will a healthy combo of Freeney/Mathis impact the Charger offense?
2) What impact will new defensive coordinator Ron Rivera have against Peyton Manning and the Colt offense?
3) What are the prospective injury-statuses of Colt Bob Sanders as well as Chargers superstars LaDanian Tomlinson & Antonio Gates
4) Are the Chargers lethal because they're at home, yet still "playing with house money"?
5) Is Phillip Rivers the most unappreciated guy in recent memory to lead (tied with Brees) the NFL in TD passes?

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Baltimore at Miami

Miami Do’s and Don’t’s:

It's not Clayton/Duper, but Bess and Ginn have as much speed as any duo in the NFL. Good thing when the Ravens secondary is in town.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do your best to stack the box on obvious running downs. Force the rookie QB – starting his first playoff game on the road, no less – to beat you downfield. It puts a TON of pressure on your relatively young secondary; nevertheless, you have to like your odds more in that scenario.

Do take advantage of a quarterback with legit playoff experience. Pennington has been the gross underdog – home or away – and guided past (Jet) teams to playoff victories against "superior teams and QBs". Don’t be so casual to forget that he’s made the big throws – for better or worse – in scenarios much rougher than at home in Miami this weekend.

Don’t allow Derrick Mason to roam free in the middle of the field. He’s the sneakiest player at that position in the NFL. Far too often he becomes discarded or totally forgotten about, especially in the slot. He’ll take a crushing hit or too as well, whether for 15 yards or 1 ½ on the reception.

Don’t allow the pick-six to burn you. It’s not impossible to plan against this. Open up the playbook – just a bit – but don’t allow their talented secondary to bite on routes. Not to mention, their LBs (as Terrell Suggs proved in Week 7) will gobble up errand balls. Anything out of the zone is property of Ed Reed. Ball security from the QB must be a QB's #1 priority when you see the Ravens on the opposing sideline.

Don’t completely abandon the benefits of the Wildcat Formation. This Ravens team is not a prolific offense (obviously). If it struggles to gain first downs early, try your best to step on their throats. Put the vice on Joe Flacco with Joey Porter barking in his ear every time he hits the corner to sack the CAA-product.


Baltimore Do’s and Don’t’s:

Averaging less than 3 catches for 25 yards a game (with only 3 TDs), the former Pro Bowler remains lost in the shuffle of an improving offense, with a rookie QB at the helm. Will that change come playoff time?

Credit: CNNSI.com

Do your best to platoon McClain and McGahee from start to finish. Why not ride both horses down the stretch, regardless of the score differential. Joe Flacco is still a rookie and there remains a significant lack of chemistry between him and his talented TE Todd Heap.

Do slip in a trick play or two for the uber-talented Mark Clayton. He’s fast and an ever-emerging athlete in the Raven offense. The Miami defenders just faced a QB (last week) with a bum shoulder who underthrew everything. Now it’s time to air out a ball or two downfield early; especially if 1-on-1 coverage is isolated on corner/stop-and-go routes.

Don’t think it's automatic that your team can win without scoring above 20 points. It’s easy to ride your defense while grinding the ball playing field position. While the Dolphin offense and special teams won’t break the bank too often; they do force turnovers. Keep that in mind when you have a rookie QB taking snaps in the 4th quarter of a game much closer than your confident defense might've expected.

Don’t expect the Dolphins to be the least bit intimidated, especially at home. This should go without saying; however, playing with house money – even at home – allows teams to act like snakes lurking in the grass. Bad symbolism, but it still rings true. The Wildcat isn't going anywhere this weekend.

Don’t forget Cam Cameron was the head coach at Miami last season, for better or worse. It’s an X-factor that might go under the rug, yet might play more of a factor than expected. Not to mention, Miami did beat a very different Baltimore (offense) last season when they were winless sans-Pennington. I’m just sayin’…

Key Matchups:

When Miami has the ball…
RB Ronnie Brown vs. LB Ray Lewis

Whether or not the Wildcat formation can work against such a disciplined defense – who has seen it before mind you – is irrelevant. Seriously. What matters is how much confidence the Dolphin coaching staff has in attempting (throughout the game) to see if Ronnie Brown is or isn’t able to take the direct snap and make a play…even if it’s a simple pitch to a dive play for Ricky. Whether it be an end-around to Ginn, a fleaflicker back to Pennington, or potentially a throw from Brown in the redzone, finding holes against this one-of-a-king speedy yet savvy defense may give the Dolphins the big play or two they need to win.

When Baltimore has the ball…
FB Le’Ron McClain vs. LB Channing Crowder

I was one of those who questioned Channing Crowder’s ability to play linebacker – especially inside the 3-4 alignment – in the NFL. While he’s far from a Pro Bowler, his athleticism and tenacity (just ask Matt Light) is ever-improving. McClain, who you’ll see just as often as the primary RB, will have a size/strength vs. speed/agility matchup most FBs either dread or salivate over.

Intangibles

Poise and Patience
You’d think the QB advantage would immediately go to Chad Pennington; yet, I’m not so sure. Flacco seems to play with a (quiet) chip on his shoulder and has arguably the more talented set of wideouts and skilled offensive players. It’ll be interesting to see how Pennington performs in the playoffs, especially in the 1st half when previous (Jet) experiences have been far more positive than his second halves. Pennington won't be nervous at all, yet arm strength may become a factor against a blitzing onslaught from the Ravens D and their coordinator Rex Ryan.

Special Teams
Matt Stover was arguably the “offensive” MVP of the 2000 Super Bowl season for the Ravens. On the other hand, Miami has an unknown kicker (Carpenter) fresh off an impressive weekend in the Meadowlands; however they also have a return unit - in all major categories - ranked in the bottom 5 in the entire NFL. Protecting your half of the field is vital to both teams, who don’t exactly gameplan on lighting the scoreboard up.

The Coaches
Just when you thought I wouldn’t mention “him”…I will. Tony Sporano (gotcha!) is a first-year coach who has seen his fair share of recent playoff disappointments in Dallas. Nevertheless, he also has to realize the tremendous opportunity he has in front of him. Good coaches don’t take these games lightly. We might call it, "playing with house money", but good coaches know it just takes one win to survive and move on. Meanwhile, John Harbaugh has two savvy coordinators in his back pocket and (defensive) players who often play like they don’t need coaching. It’s almost poetic that both these two teams – both buried in last place last season – would be so fortunate to be lifted up by two talented first-year coaches.

Final Score Prediction
Baltimore wins 27-10

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Indianapolis at San Diego

Indianapolis Do's & Don't's:

Do ride Peyton Manning's hot hand. Manning should be the NFL's MVP, and the way he played over the last four games of the season should carry over. If Manning gets going with a pitch 'n' catch game, it could get ugly.

Do rest assured that the Indy defense is a whole different beast with Bob Sanders in the lineup. The defending defensive player of the year missed a lot of time this year, but even a hurt Bob Sanders brings a lot to that defense, psychologically.

Do use this game to strike fear in the hearts of other teams in the playoffs by making a statement.

Don't let that win over the Chargers on November 23rd fool you. It was a close game, but it was also a team that was 4-6 going into the game. The Chargers have confidence, and football is a sport where mind, at times, can outdo matter.

Don't let the defense sit back and do anything but attack. Regardless of Sanders's presence, the defense cannot match up size-wise against the Chargers. This is one of the speediest front seven's in the league and in the NFL, speed translates to turnovers. Freeney, Brock and Dawson must pitch a tent in San Diego's backfield.

San Diego Do's & Don't's:

Do let Rivers get started early in the passing game. His 11 to 1 TD/INT ratio over the last four games must continue if the Chargers are to have a chance in this game.

Do believe that Tomlinson has something left in the tank. While he had a down season, and showed signs of aging, Tomlinson didn't have to carry the load during the four game win streak. He might have had the rest he needed to come into this game ready to hit the ground running.

Do get the ball in the hands of Darren Sproles. He is the home run threat on this team. With a well-timed 25+ yard run/catch, he could serve as a momentum changer as well.

Don't let this game rest on the defense. It's time to run up the score and expect a shoot out. The Colts are licking their chops ready to take on this defense that did so poorly against the pass all season.

Don't allow Norv to Out-Clever himself. Draw plays on 3rd and long are far from cute when the season is on the line. The Chargers have size on the offense. They have the potential to beat up the smaller Colts defense. A heavy dose of Tomlinson, Tolbert, Jackson, Gates and Chambers should open the door for the aforementioined big play by Sproles.

Key Matchups:

When Either Team has the ball
QBs & WR/TEs vs. DBs
This classic shootout will come down to how much of a dent the DBs for either team can put in the receiving game for either team. The numbers show that this could be a hellacious shootout, but if this turns into a low-scoring game, the DBs deserve tremendous credit.

Intangibles:

Momentum
Both teams are coming off of winning streaks. San Diego won their last four, while Indy won their last nine. One would lean towards Indy in this case, but when does a team become complacent in their winning? Not trying to say Indy thinks they can put it in cruise control, but could San Diego, being on a fresher winning streak, be hitting their stride?

Defense
Not in the sense of which defense can step up and shut the other team down, but moreso which defense will make the big play that puts the ball back in their offense's hands? Don't be surprised if a single defensive play determines the outcome of the game.

Final Score Prediction:
Colts win: 43-31

AFC Championship Game Preview - San Diego at New England

San Diego Do's & Don't’s – Armin Mohajeri

Do go with what's been working and Don't make it complicated. The team is on an 8 game winning streak, and they're coming off a win against arguably the second best team in the league. The formula: Let the defense own the game giving the offense enough opportunities to make the big plays that devastate the opposing defense. As much talent as the team has on offense, the defense is what has kept this team on track to make it to the AFC Championship.

Do send the linebackers after Brady. The Bolts already faced one of the best offensive lines in football. The scheme the Colts run is designed to keep Peyton off his back. The fact that the Bolts front seven was able to break that line down, especially at crucial moments, gives them some hope. The Pats deploy a similar line scheme (I call it Quality over Quantity of Time and Space) built for a QB that can make quick reads. For Merriman, Philips and Co. to get to Brady, they will have to rely on their amazing athletic ability to get that first step that will force Brady out of his game.

Do drop to the ground after making a game clinching interception. No repeats of the Marlon McCree interception, then fumble that put the Patriots back in the game in last year's match up. All humor aside, the Chargers defense is a young athletic defense, and if they can translate their athletic ability into a couple of turnovers, the Bolts could be sitting pretty at the end of this contest.

Don't let the injuries get you down. Rivers and Tomlinson could be out (or playing a limited amount). The Bolts should remain confident in Billy Volek and Michael Turner. Volek proved when he was with Tennessee, that he can throw the rock effectively if it comes to a passing game. The question is moreso in regards to his timing with the first team receivers. Michael Turner is one of the top 2 or 3 backup RBs in the league. He's capable of carrying the load for the Bolts.

Don't hold back on offense. Attack the Patriots defense. Facing an offense like New England's, where they practically score at will, you must look to hit the Pats at their weakest spot. Though it is strange to use the term "weak" when referring to the Pats defense, it is the weakest point on a dominant team. Regardless of if Rivers is back at the helm, or if Volek is running the show, the Bolts need to get the ball in the air. The team must go in for the kill.

Don't beat yourselves. It's no secret that the 2007 Patriots are one of the all time great teams. It's going to take a stroke of luck and magic to pull off the victory here. The mistakes must be limited, or else we're going to get another LT tirade about how the Patriots are cheaters.

New England Do’s and Don’t’s – Sum Mehrnama

Do trust every single player you have on offense. From Randy Moss to Kevin Faulk to Heath Evans and even to that Brady-guy who slings the football, this is a line-up that has gelled like no other. The play-action pass against Jacksonville, when Brady had his back to the defense for a good second, says it all. Every offensive player knows where each of his teammates are at all times.

Do dig up L.T.’s whining from last year’s playoffs for the bulletin board. No team rises to the defense of its coach like the Patriots do, and I don’t mean via the airwaves. The Pats defend Belichick’s honor on the field of play. If it wasn’t for “spygate” then this team would’ve had a loss or two on its record. So dig up L.T. calling your coach “classless.” Or just wait for Philip Rivers to open his big mouth.

Do play physical on both sides of the ball. The Chargers got the snot knocked out of them all game last week (granted, they did some snot-knocking of their own too). While they are a solid physical team, there’s only so much punishment a body can take. Hard tackles when you’re on defense will tire them out that much quicker than normal.

Don’t expect their defense to under perform, like the Jags did. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Philips will come after Brady with an intense passion, and should get a solid number of knockdowns and sacks. In the secondary, Antonio Cromartie has proven his studliness twice against the Colts and it’s no fluke, the boy can play, play fast, and play hard. Bring your A+ game on offense, or go home.

Don’t rely on your defense. At times, the unit looked pathetic against the Jags offensive unit, particularly when David Garrard threw the ball. If the good Philip Rivers shows up, this will be a problem again. Your linebackers are old, Rodney Harrison will get at least one or two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties called against him, and your cornerbacks leave much to be desired. Bottom line: score at least 30 points.

Don’t believe your own hype. For 17 games, you’ve held the proper cliché mantras of “one game at a time” and “we win as a team.” This is not the time to lose that focus and attitude, but I fear it may have started happening. Tom Brady, ever the politician in post-game interviews, might have slipped when he jokingly requested an Academy Award for his brilliant acting job on the aforementioned play-action TD pass to Wes Welker. Sure, it was a tiny comment, and sure it was in jest … but he’s rarely, if ever, publicly praised himself for anything this season. Why start now?

Key Matchups – Chris Clement

When San Diego has the Ball

TE Antonio Gates vs. SS Rodney Harrison

Hobbled with a bum ankle, Gates still amassed over 75 receptions, nearly 1,000 yards, and 9 TDs during another Pro Bowl season. Despite being whisper quiet in Indy, Gates will be relied upon as heavily as his fractured toe will allow. Enter ball-hawking and cheap-shoting safety Rodney Harrison. Self-proclaimed “victim” while on the field to countless penalties, Harrison is as dirty – and effective – a safety in the NFL. When it counts, it’s likely he’ll have his hands on or around the football. Catching a TD late in the blowout back in Week 2, Antonio will need a Winslow Sr.-esque performance if the Bolts wish to keep this game close. Word to the wise, Antonio: don’t get caught in the bottom of the pile with your ankle exposed around good ol’ Rodney.

When New England has the Ball

RB Kevin Faulk vs. Chargers LBs

Often forgotten by the media, teams don’t game-plan to avoid Kevin Faulk. Instead, the reality is that Faulk is as slippery and sneaky a back in the NFL. Never one to pound it 20-plus times, Faulk has excelled as a do-everything back in the Patriot system. Whether catching screens, slants/hitches past a blitz, or taking handoffs around the corner…Faulk is lethal on any down, whether second and short or third and long. While many people believe Shawn Merriman, Stephen Cooper, and Shaun Phillips must establish constant and consistent pressure on Tom Brady (good luck) or watch for Ben Watson (a time-slot hit at TE), it may be more important to monitor what Faulk does, even if he sees less than 50% of the snaps. As solid as second-year back Laurence Maroney has been as of late, Faulk is the Patriot runner the Bolts should fear the most.

Intangibles – Chris Clement

Streaks

By now we all know that the Pats have won 17 out of 17 games this season (take THAT Mercury Morris!). What we may not know is that the Chargers are winners of 8 in a row and 12 out of their last 16. Mighty impressive, but it pales in comparison to perfection. In fact, due in large part to a down year in the AFC West, many people (including myself) questioned exactly who San Diego had beaten. However, a pair of victories over the Titans and a road win in Indy (which San Diego has an affinity towards doing) changed any previous perceptions. Meanwhile, we can venture back to Week 2 (Pats dominated following SpyGate 38-14) as perhaps the week that the road to unbridled dominance began. It seems light years ago, back during the days of Marty-Ball, when the Bolts decimated the Pats in Foxboro. A sort of informal coming out party took place that day. That also may have been the last time Tom Brady didn't have a completion percentage in the high 80s. One way or another, Sunday afternoon will witness the death and the birth of a new set of streaks. Highlighted by either the Pats being the first to see 18-0…or the Chargers, behind Norv Turner of all coaches (3-1 in the playoffs, mind you), allowing the Dolphins to sip their bitter champagne as they remain the sole undefeated Super Bowl champions.

Gravity

What goes up must eventually come down. Thanks Isaac Newton, but we've all heard it before when it comes to sports. Even the Bulls lost two games in the NBA Finals during their 72-win season. Yet, New England has been impervious to any scientific theories or rational laws this season. In fact, even when the score is tied or the Pats face a 12-point deficit late in the 3rd quarter, all appears fine and dandy on the sideline. It's not important the Chargers start well (ala Baltimore, New York, and Jacksonville), it's imperative they start and finish well. Going up 7-0 doesn't faze New England. Especially when they tie it up 7-7 on their next drive. You want to scare the Pats? Stop them on their first drive and then YOU score. Then stop them again. Good luck on that accord. The same mistakes made by Peyton last weekend, at home no less, cannot be expected from Brady. Interestingly enough, has Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding ever made a kick with anything or value on the line? Methinks not. While what goes up must eventually come down, it doesn't appear likely that will happen this season to the all-mighty Patriots.

Final Predictions

Armin: New England wins, 31 – 20

Clement: New England wins, 42 – 23

Summy: New England wins, 38 – 24

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: San Diego at Indianapolis

Indianapolis Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do lean on the passing game. When the teams met earlier this year, the Colts were without Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark. According to John Clayton, Harrison has been looking great. A Marvin Harrison with some spring back in his step is just what the doctor ordered for the Colts to succeed.

Do stack the line while on defense. The Colts DBs outmatch the Bolts receivers on paper. This allows the 8 men in the box to key in on LT and take the Bolts out where they usually succeed, in the run game. This will force the Bolts into a passing game, where the defense can take advantage of a mistake prone Rivers.

Don’t let the Chargers special teams beat you again. Darren Sproles returned a kick off and a punt for TDs last time, crippling the offensive gameplan. As much as the team should lean on the pass, they should also get Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith some carries. If Manning throws 50+ times again, it’s probably because Indy is playing catch-up again.

Don’t get scared if it comes down to a Vinetieri kick to win the game. He will not miss again.

Don’t play that stupid simulated crowd noise. Let the fans show up, if they truly are fans.


San Diego Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do feed a steady diet of LT to the Colts front seven. They’re a little light in the bread-basket. Norv Turner couldn’t have a more simple plan for this game. LT is the key to winning (as in most games). If the Bolts get behind, their receivers don’t match up favorably with the Colts and NFL Defensive MVP, Bob Sanders will make it a long day for Rivers.

Do find a way to get Antonio Gates involved, which will take Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea somewhat out of their game. If the Colts even think of putting a linebacker on Gates, Rivers will have a field day.

Don’t break away from the defensive plan if it doesn’t work early. The Merriman and Phillips need to be cut loose and go after Manning. The Colts have a system on offense that has been solidified over many years. Not many teams are successful at rushing Manning, but teams that do succeed have had positive results with the final score.

Don’t expect Peyton to throw 6 picks again.


Key Matchups:

When Indianapolis has the ball

RB Peyton Manning vs. CBs Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie
Several variables stand out here. Manning will most likely not have another 6 INT game. Quentin Jammer was out last time these teams faced each other. Peyton didn’t have two of his favorite targets available (Harrison & Clark).

When San Diego has the ball

OT Marcus McNeil vs. DE Robert Mathis
Last time these teams faced, Mathis had a sack against McNeil. McNeil has to keep Mathis out of the backfield. If the Bolts are forced to play catch-up, Mathis can make short work of the offense as Rivers will be forced to find an open receiver, giving Mathis more time to get to him.


Intangibles:

Can Norv Turner beat a solid team in the playoffs?
I hate to make this about Norv Turner, but the theme works for me. Last week, the question was: “Can Norv Turner win a playoff game?” Now that coached his team to a victory against a Titans team that was a little banged up on offense, they face a tougher challenge. If the Bolts can knock out the defending Super Bowl champs, they may pose the biggest threat to the Patriots this season. But, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.

Special Teams
Going back to their regular season match up, the special teams are what dictated the game early on. Two return TDs and a field goal put the Bolts ahead 16-0, forcing Manning to throw the ball the rest of the game. The return game will be key again, on a fast field in Indianapolis. Whomever wins the field position game will win the game (barring that more important stat of turnovers).


Final Score Prediction:

Indianapolis wins, 29-22

Clement’s Weekly Picks and Prognostications…Wild-Card Weekend

Playoff weekend. Or is it payoff weekend? Spreads are shrinking rapidly outside of San Diego, and plenty of moolah is to be made over the weekend. Or is it?

While some teams are red hot (Washington), others have rested for nearly a month (Tampa Bay). While some teams stumbled into the playoffs (Pittsburgh), others have everyone shaking in their boots (Jacksonville).

We have a media darling (the Jags), a sentimental favorite (the Skins), a classic overachiever (the Titans), road warriors (the Giants), and experienced homers (the Seahawks).

In the end, we have what should amount to a competitive, yet firework-free, NFL wild-card weekend.

Tennessee lacks star power and Vince Young isn’t even healthy!
San Diego has as vanilla a coach and as lackluster a home playoff record as anyone.
Washington still has Todd Collins, 3-0 or not, under center.
Tampa doesn’t have three skill players most fans can name off the top of their head.
The Giants can play the Patriots tightly until the closing seconds or lose 35-3 any given week.
Jacksonville is beloved, but was doodoo in the playoffs two years ago.
Pittsburgh lost Fast Willie, Aaron Smith and their swagger a month ago.
Seattle’s former MVP runs a 9.5-40 yard dash these days.

So while you may have rooting interests, don’t expect ratings to be through the roof.

…Waiting in the Wings…
NFC’s #1 seed Dallas Cowboys and #2 seed Green Bay Packers.
AFC’s #1 seed New England Patriots and #2 seed Indianapolis Colts.

Without further banter, let’s get the predictions started!
Since the other staff writers here did such a fantastic job, I’m talking spreads only!

...spreads will be updated Saturday & Sunday morning...

Washington @ Seattle [-3.5]














Guess who gets to try and bottle up red-hot Santana Moss this weekend?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

While the Skins are as hot as any current team not playing in Foxboro, Seattle at home is something I’m not willing to bet against this postseason.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh [+2.5]












What will be the state of the "field" Saturday night?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Disrespecting the Steelers and overrating the Jags could be costly. Not for me.

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay [-3]














All he does is make the playoffs...in the NFC.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Despite being 7-1 on the road, it’s hard to trust the Giants. I’ll take a rested Tampa team with a suffocating zone attack for the push.

Tennessee @ San Diego [-10]














Several Titans' health may decide more than the spread in this game.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Who have the Chargers beaten outside of Tennessee (due to a very questionable non-call) during their recent 6-game winning streak? Win or lose, this spread is too large for my wallet.

By the way, there will be zero mention of NFL Playoff Fantasy Football. Blasphemy.

Until next weekend...