Falling, Falling, Falling, Falling: Week 3 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

No running commentary today. A new column pops up tomorrow, a Monday-edition - each and every week - of InClement Weather. See you then for NFL reactions and a Monday Night predictions (or two)...

Much like the opening two titles to this weekly column (Lightning in a Bottle, I’d Like To Touch Jennifer’s Body), we’re sticking with the nonsensical title route.

You know you like it…or you soon will.

No need to explain. It’s time for 10 Questions of the Week…

Seriously, do I even need to formally address my interest around this topic?
Credit: SportsJonez.com

1) Is everyone a little too hysterical over the early success of both Rex Ryan’s defense and Mark Sanchez?
2) Is Joe Flacco really this effective in the Raven offense?
3) How legit are these Mike Singletary-inspired San Francisco 49ers?
4) Is Frank Gore a legitimate threat to rush for more yards than Adrian Peterson this season?
5) Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, or John Carlson: which young tight end has the brightest future?
6) Which rookie head coach gets a W first: Raheem Morris or Todd Haley?
7) How many catches, no less TDs, do you have TO dropping this week?
8) Will the Skins struggle with the Lions…or lay a beatdown upon the Motor City’s “finest”?
9) Which backup QB might see non-injury or blowout-related snaps first: Derek Anderson or the field?
10) Is Michael Crabtree doing serious damage to his playing career by sitting out his entire rookie campaign?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-1 (That’s right. I love me some road dogs. Only Carolina…barely…cost me perfection.)
Season Total: 7-4 (We’re going to make a serious push next week to establish a solid winning mark. As if you care…)
Upset Special: 2-0 (I found 2 I LOVED and this is where the money was to be made last weekend.)
Survivor Selection: 2-0 (Ask me why I idiotically didn’t make the same selection in my actual survivor league. Ask me!)

Green Bay Packers @ St. Louis Rams (+6.5)
I took the Rams last week against the Skins and cashed big. As for this week, the Packer offense is going to wake up and win by at least a TD. Sometimes your picks don’t make much sense…

Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Hasselbeck’s injury is serious. Seattle’s homefield advantage isn’t any longer. Look for Matt Forte to be the difference in this game as the Bears move to 2-1.

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots (-4.5)
Vegas knows something. I’m just sayin’. Take the Pats and avoid watching this game if you have money on it. Otherwise…enjoy!!!

Carolina Panthers @ Dallas Cowboys (-8.5)
This number was even bigger at the beginning of the week. Seriously. Dallas is 1-1 and not this many points better – even at home – than the 0-2 Panthers. While I’m taking Dallas for the W, this is waaaay too many points to leave hanging out there in the wind.

Upset Special #1
Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers (-5.5)
If only this game were at 1pm and in Miami…I’d take the Phins in a heartbeat. I don’t know what the Chargers are, but I do know they’re not Super Bowl contenders. I’m taking the Phins to keep it close and potentially even get the outright W. They started 0-2 last year and beat the Patriots on their way to 11-5. I’m not calling 11 wins, but I am calling an avoidance of 0-3.

Upset Special #2
Indianapolis Colts @ Arizona Cardinals (-3)
It’s not as easy as it looks, as Arizona manned up a lot last week. However, it was at Jacksonville and a Jack Del Rio-coached team. While I expect fireworks from both offense, the numbers against Indy’s Pass D are pretty surprising (only 6 passing TDs allowed all of last season). While Warner and Fitz can rock that trend, I’m taking Manning to be magical again in primetime.

…Survivor Selection… [Gone: New England & Minnesota]
Baltimore is going to WAX Cleveland at home this weekend. If you need an explanation as to why, you don't watch enough football.

Fantasy Studs and Duds

Am I big on Manningham this weekend? Not so much...
Credit: SBNation.com

…Last Week… [5 out of 8 correct…11 out of 19 this season correct]

Correct = Donald Driver (stud…and I sat him), Darren Sproles (stud…and I started him), Louis Murphy (dud), Josh Morgan (dud), and Patrick Crayton (dud).
Incorrect = Leon Washington (stud), Greg Olsen (stud…so close), and Braylon Edwards (dud).

STUDS
1) Santana Moss owners won’t get their 100-yard game; however, there TD-catch is on the way this weekend in MoTown.
2) Jeremy Shockey is being targeted early and often by Drew Brees. Expect plenty of Saint points in Buffalo and Shockey to continue his rather surprising fantasy start to the season.
3) Brett Favre is going to air it out against the Niners secondary. They’ll stack the box against AD and force the 39-year old QB to beat them. And he will.
4) Bernard Berrian is catching a 60+-yard TD this week…if he suits up healthy.

DUDS
1) Matt Cassell may be without Dwayne Bowe and the Eagles D is not going to allow back-to-back eruptions. Sit him NOW.
2) Mario Manningham was a popular pickup this week. Don’t start him though as the Giants will run run run the ball against the Tampa D.
3) Chris Johnson is going to dominate the touches for the Titans, for better or worse. LenDale White isn’t bound to do much of anything this weekend.
4) 2 for 1 SPECIAL!!! It’s a little too wet for me to be excited about Benjamin Watson at QB or Laurence Maroney in any sort of flex start. Oh yeah, Maroney sucks too!

Parting Thought of the Week

Credit: Jessica Simpson

Romo can't leave the fans this upset in primetime again.
Step it up!!!

InClement Weather: Fantasy Football Speak [Part III of III]

Preseason musings can be found HERE.
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Most of us, who write for or read this blog, are fantasy football "players". In fact, many of us have been at it for over a decade now (some even longer). On top of that, many of us have multiple leagues we interact with yearly.

With that in mind, I'm going to continue - after a week long (wedding-related) delay - serving up my final post, in series of 3 fantasy football-related posts.

1) First up, we looked at the first 3 rounds of our draft HERE.
2) Previously HERE, we checked out 10 "Make or Break" Selections found in our draft, which include players VERY likely to impact yours as well.
3) NOW, I'm targeting 10 guys I was surprised to see drop on our overall draft board. Perhaps you can let us know if you've seen anything similar in your own draft(s).

As for the league parameters, in case you still don't know...here they is.

Basics
A) 10-teams.
B) 18-round ladder draft. [Ex: 1 to 10, 10 to 1, 1 to 10, 10 to 1, and so on.]
C) Starters include 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 DEF. 8 reserve sports.

Draft
D) Max of 1 1/2 mins/pick for the first 5 rounds, max of 1 min/pick for rounds 6 through 11, and max of 45 seconds (that's right!) for rounds 12 through 18.
Note: No keepers or holdovers either. Not in this league, at least. 2-Starting QB Rules
E) If a backup becomes a starter and you have 4 starting QBs, you must drop/trade one w/i 24 hours.
F) If you have 3 starters on your roster, you may NOT pick up a 4th starter with the intention of working a trade. Picking up a starting QB when you already have 3 can only be done if you are dropping one of your 3 current starters.
G) This also works for defenses and kickers. Yes, we once had an owner with 3 kickers, potentially tabbing another. Lowball, but savvy.

Draft Lottery Bonuses
H) Separate pick'em and survivor leagues give each winner an extra ping pong ball (which I literally draw 5 minutes before the draft).

Note: Remember there are NO keepers in this league.

Andre Johnson at #29

Nearly a consensus #2 wideout, the position dropped and AJ lasted almost into the 4th round. [Wide Receivers taken prior: Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, & Greg Jennings]
Credit: StylePL.us

Pierre Thomas at #45

The Kool-Aid on Thomas wasn't be sipped by this league. In fact, the autodraft helped Thomas potentially avoid the 50s or lower.
Credit: BallStJournal.com

Braylon Edwards at #56

The guy netted early 2nd round talk last year; however, this season was a completely different story. In fact, Edwards was passed up by nearly 20 other wideouts.
Credit: SMH.com

Willie Parker at #72

He slipped last season and ended up missing 5 games. As for this season, Parker wasn't valued as a starter for most teams in need of a reliable #2 RB.
Credit: 5GoldenRings.com

Ryan Grant at #90

Perhaps the biggest fall. I wanted no part of him personally, although netting a top 35 prospect isn't bad for the end of the 9th round.
Credit: IGN.com

Julius Jones at #108

With Maurice Morris out in Detroit now (good luck Mo), Jones seems the only option outside of the 20s. TJ Duckett has never appeared to be an every down back. Should this guy improve with a healthier Hasselbeck and rejuvinated Seahawk team? Well???
Credit: OregonLove.com

Owen Daniels at #140

Potential top 5 talent and now a backup tight end (already drafted Witten) is pretty surprising for this up-and-comer.
Credit: IndyStar.com

Jamal Lewis at #150

How the once-mighty have continued to fall.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Willis McGahee at #169

Even more shocking might be:
A) Ray Rice going #54 overall, in the 9th round.
B) Le'Ron MClain going undrafted. Wow.
Credit: Inquisitr.com

Michael Vick at #170

It had to happen eventually. This was mere days after him signing with the Iggles. This was the last pick in the 2nd to last round (17th).
Question is: how many owners planned on making him their final pick? I know of at least 3 others (of the other 9).
Credit: BleedingGreenNation.com

You'll see it in your draft too. Question is: which 10 might surprise or shock you the most? So help ME out and react and share!!!!
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