Fresh off the Bye Week: Week 6 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

After taking a week off, I'm back!
Let's be nice and call it a bye week.
In case you didn't know, it came just at the nick of time. Whew.

Time for the 10 Questions of the Week...

Can the Broncos, fresh off of an impressive win against the Patriots at home, truly ready to step up with the NFL's elite and take down divisional-rival San Diego?
Credit: STFUSports.com

1) Can Dick Jauron save his dignity and upset the Jets?
2) Is there a major trade in the works, which is so unlike a typical NFL trade deadline (outside of the Edwards/Adams deals)?
3) Are people truly realizing the scope the Gaines Adams-deal may have on the Bears defense?
4) Are the Rams going 0-16?
5) If Washington loses to KC, is Zorn out even BEFORE the bye week?
6) The the Bengals truly a 5-1 team?
7) Jay Cutler or Matty Ice: who ya go this Sunday night?
8) Braylon Edwards feeling 2 for 2 with TD catches in his first two games with the Jets?
9) Ray Rice is second in total yards from scrimmage in the NFL. Trend or a telling statistic?
10) Seriously, are the Saints for real?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 4-4 (Not my strongest weekend; however, I took a lot of risks. After a "bye week", I expect a stronger performance. Although there are way too many HUGE numbers out here to target too many games.)
Season Total: 16-10 (I'm putting a target out there. 25-15. It can happen. It can.)
Upset Special: 4-2 (Lost a little momentum. No sweat, 2 picks this week will help!)
Survivor Selection: 4-0 (It's just too easy right now with some of these horrid teams out there.)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins (-6 1/2)
Tricky tricky Vegas. Both teams stink. Skins, somehow, win by a touchdown.

Tennnessee Titans @ New England Patriots (-9)
Number still seems kinda big, even for an 0-5 road Titan team, until you realize two things:
A) New England doesn't lose back-to-back games.
B) Collins isn't long for this starting role, Vince Young or not.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3 1/2)
I thought the Panthers would play better last weekend, although the Skins play everyone (bad and really bad) pretty close. The Panthers win, not big but big enough to cover this somewhat surprisingly tight number.

Upset Special #1
NY Giants @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
I wish I could find this number at -3 1/2, but it doesn't exist. The Giants are worth the risk; especially without putting real money on it.

Upset Special #2
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3 1/2)
I refuse to believe in Seattle, even at home. Maybe I'm giving Arizona WAAAY to much credit. Who cares? I want to. So I will!!!

Upset Special #3
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (- 3 1/2)
This prediction is gonna bite me in the ...

Survivor Selection [Gone: New England, Minnesota, Baltimore, & NY Giants]
Philadelphia is going to WAX the Raiders. Not too much brilliance needed to make this pick o' the survivor week.

Fantasy-Time
I'm taking a new route on fantasy. I'm gonna whipe the confusing scoring system OUT and make things very very VERY easy. Start these 5 guys and sit these 5 guys. They're all 50/50 (often FLEX or last-resort) starts. Enjoy the wealth of knowledge!!!

Start (TE-edition)
1) Leon Washington
2) Greg Olsen
3) Mercedes Lewis
4) Devrey Henderson
5) Benjamin Watson
Extra: Josh Johnson (believe it BABY!)

Sit (WR-edition)
1) Lee Evans
2) Jericho Cotchery
3) Vincent Jackson
4) Washington D
5) Bernard Berrian
Extra: Larry Johnson

I know you missed me. See you next week!!!!

InClement Weather: Frogurt!!!

Buyer beware in any free agent market. With a potentially uncapped 2010 and threats like, "If the players don't have a salary cap, they'll never give it (i.e. accept one) back again", it doesn't take a genius to realize a labor crisis is coming.

Seriously people. We may not have the NFL for an entire season in 2011. It might get that bad. Does Roger Goodell seem like somebody who will "back off" or submit to "peer pressure".

Not so much.

Nevertheless, I want to take an e-e-e-early look at some of the key free agents of the upcoming offseason.

Instead of savvy analysis, I want a hilariously memorable Simpsons clip, a picture of the player, and a simple statement. Okay, truth be told: I want YOU to react. Somebody!?!? Anybody!?!?

Brandon Marshall [WR, Denver]

Any chance the nickname "BM" sticks for #15?
Credit: NFLBlitzNews.com

One Liner: BM is more dangerous than a cup of frogurt, there is far more value and a lot less volatile-for-the-buck out there. (See: Vincent Jackson, Steve Breaston, & Kevin Walter)

InClement Weather: Fantasy Football Speak [Part II of III]

Most of us, who would write for or read this blog, are fantasy football "players". In fact, many of us have been at it for over a decade now (some even longer). On top of that, many of us have multiple leagues we interact with yearly.

With that in mind, I'm going to continue - after a week long (wedding-related) delay - serving up a series of fantasy football-related posts.

1) First up, we looked at the first 3 rounds of our draft HERE.
2) Today, we're checking out 10 "Make or Break" Selections found in our draft, which are likely to impact yours as well.
3) As for later in the week, I'll target 10 guys I was surprised to see drop on our overall draft board. Perhaps you can let us know if you've seen anything similar in your own draft(s).

As for the league parameters...here they is.

Basics
A) 10-teams.
B) 18-round ladder draft. [Ex: 1 to 10, 10 to 1, 1 to 10, 10 to 1, and so on.]
C) Starters include 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K, & 1 DEF. 8 reserve sports.

Draft
D) Max of 1 1/2 mins/pick for the first 5 rounds, max of 1 min/pick for rounds 6 through 11, and max of 45 seconds (that's right!) for rounds 12 through 18.
Note: No keepers or holdovers either. Not in this league, at least.

2-Starting QB Rules
E) If a backup becomes a starter and you have 4 starting QBs, you must drop/trade one w/i 24 hours.
F) If you have 3 starters on your roster, you may NOT pick up a 4th starter with the intention of working a trade. Picking up a starting QB when you already have 3 can only be done if you are dropping one of your 3 current starters.
G) This also works for defenses and kickers. Yes, we once had an owner with 3 kickers, potentially tabbing another. Lowball, but savvy.

Draft Lottery Bonuses
H) Separate pick'em and survivor leagues give each winner an extra ping pong ball (which I literally draw 5 minutes before the draft).

Note: To be fair, I'll stick with rounds 6 through 12 (it was an 18 round draft)

6th Round Selection = Roy Williams [WR, Dallas]

Mighty big shoes - and an ego - to fill.
Credit: NFLTouchdown.com

The new #1 wideout in Big D (Witten remains Romo's #1 target), has a lot of pressure on him this season. I drafted him, partially due to already selecting Romo, on the basis of everything he showed - outside of 2009's campaign with Dallas (19 catches in 10 games), at a great risk/reward.

7th Round Selection = Larry Johnson [RB, Kansas City]

Memo to LJ: Chill with women, don't spit alcohol in their face.
Credit: Chilli-Online.net

Depth at the position was a factor; however, it was a risk for the owner (Patterson) this early who already selected Westbrook, Turner, and McFadden. Depth is key, but being able to trade that depth is even more vital. Question is: can LJ (aka "Alcohol Spitta") be package in a deal if he starts off well? You tell me.

8th Round Selection = Greg Olsen [TE, Chicago]

Olsen owners beware of Desmond Clark stealing redzone targets. Beware!!!
Credit: NYDailyNews.com

The tight end position can often decide close games. Enter a young, emerging tight end who appears to be the early favorite target of his new quarterback. Meanwhile, Desmond Clark is holding on to snaps with a tight clutch and often 0 point performances from the position can lead to a big fat L.

9th Round Selection = Joseph Addai [RB, Indianapolis]

Donald Brown is a popular name on draft board, often even before Addai. Mistake!!!

Credit: StilletoStillSports.com

So much for the top 5, first round, or even the top 5 rounds. Addai is often being passed up for Donald Brown. Nevertheless, the 9th round has a lot of value for a potential 3rd or even 4th running back. Especially one in an offense that seems well-equipped to offer redzone touches.

10th Round Selection = Knowshon Moreno [RB, Denver]

McDaniels (not pictured) may need this one to hit more than any fantasy owner.
Credit: STFUS.com

Simply put, there's (at least) three factors at play:
A) The Denver tradition of RB by Committee
B) The tweaked ankle in the preseason opener
C) Rookie RBs in general

11th Round Selection = Sage Rosenfels [QB, Minnesota]

Who is the Viking backup?
Credit: Scottdo.com

Is he the backup? Is Tavaris? Will either potentially see snaps if Favre struggles BIG TIME? Nightmarish situation to say the least.

12th Round Selection = Michael Crabtree [WR, San Francisco]

The 49ers' season, whether Singletary wants to admit or not, depends heavily on his availability.
Credit: TheRookiesBlog.com

Will he sign? Will he play? Will he be more annoying than Vernon Davis (unlikely!)???

NFL SWOT Analysis: AFC West

Denver Broncos

Strengths – The Broncos once again have an athletic offensive line lacking big names. However, this is an ideal fit for Josh McDaniels’s offense. As a rookie, LT Ryan Clady proved to be one of the best pass blockers in the game. Center Casey Weigman was a pro bowler. At TE, the team has Daniel Graham who was successful in his days in New England in the same offense. Tony Scheffler may not be as athletic as Ben Watson, but isn’t far, and boasts better hands. Look to them to be a strength in the offensive attack. On Defense, if either Robert Ayers or Jarvis Moss step up, the LB crew could bring this defense to the level that can help the team survive in the playoffs.

Weaknesses – Many will disagree, but I think settling on Kyle Orton was a mistake. Sure, he won some games in Chicago, but this is an offense that’s built on padding a QB’s stats. If Orton’s numbers don’t shine, he’s gotta go. Could people be laughing at the Broncos for passing on Jason Campbell in a very easy trade? The defensive line is made up from a bunch of junk from other teams. Ronald Fields may be the best of the bunch, and that’s not saying much. All three starters look like stop-gaps that will be replaced at some point.

Opportunities – Correll Buckhalter, if healthy, can show why Andy Reid kept giving him so many chances after so many season ending injuries. Eddie Royal steps into the WR1 role with Brandon Marshall’s situation in flux. Brandon Stokely must return to form from when he was a 1000 yard receiver. If not, Orton doesn’t have many long options. Alphonso Smith is a mature rookie who will be needed at CB. The starters are either past their prime or getting there quickly.

Threats – The Brandon Marshall situation could have an effect in the locker room and on the field. Players could be torn on whether he should stay or go. One thing remains clear: If he leaves, there will be some huge shoes to fill on offense, as he is an elite receiver on the field. One of the things the team has lacked (and still does) is an offensive leader. The team could use someone like that to keep teammates like Marshall in line.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Dawkins (the older player in this case) taking the Defensive Captain/Leadership role from Champ Bailey. Honestly, while Bailey has heart, he’s never been a defensive captain type. Dawkins brings a lot to the table for this team.

Position Battle – OLB opposite Elvis Dumervil: Five candidates. Mario Haggan is penciled in as the starter for now. However Darrell Reid, Robert Ayers, Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder will all vie for the spot.

Rookie Contributor – CB Alphonso Smith could wind up starting over Andre Goodman, depending on what happens in the preseason. OLB Robert Ayers is in the mix for the starting OLB spot. Both Darcel McBath and David Bruton could see time at SS.



Kansas City Chiefs

Strengths – This is a young team. Give them a season to pull it all together, and they can surprise. The DBs are a very young crew. They did an admirable job last year with their top 3 CBs being rookies (Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Maurice Leggett), and both Ss in their second year (Jarrad Page and Bernard Pollard). This group could end up leading this defense for the next half-decade. The O-Line is a tough group. Larry Johnson has every opportunity to return to All-Pro form. Adding Mike Goff at RG solidified the weakest link on the line and forms a great run-blocking tandem on the right side with Damion McIntosh.

Weaknesses – At this point, the backup D-Line looks better than the starters. Tank Tyler and Tyson Jackson need to step up and claim their starting spots. Glenn Dorsey just needs to show up in some way…any way…to give the team some hope that he might one day pan out. Beyond Dwayne Bowe, the WRs on this team are weak. When the team is counting on Ashley Lelie, Bobby Engram, Amani Toomer and Devard Darling to step up, there is trouble.

Opportunities – The quartet of LBs have two leaders that the team can learn a lot from. Mike Vrabel has lived in the 3-4 defense, and Zach Thomas (whether he can get on the field or not) can teach youngsters about heart. With both of those players placed around him, Derrick Johnson takes on a playmaker role that could have him putting up great numbers. On offense, Brad Cottam must show that he can take the starting TE spot. He has a lot of untapped potential that would ease the loss of Gonzalez, even if it’s only eased a little.

Threats – With Dwayne Bowe given extra bench time, how soon before he formally asks for a trade? Apparently the Jets are interested. The team doesn’t have the receiving corps to make up for that loss. Todd Haley also has to remember that he doesn’t have Fitz, Boldin and Breaston anymore.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Matt Cassel from Larry Johnson as the new big-money under-achiever.

Position Battle – QB: Matt Cassel vs. Brodie Croyle. Apparently Croyle is putting the heat on Cassel. I’ve liked Croyle since he came into the league. Too bad Cassel has the contract.

Rookie Contributor – Tyson Jackson should eventually unseat Alphonso Boone at the left DE spot.



Oakland Raiders

Strengths – Hello!!! Hello-hello-hello. Echo!!1 Echo-echo-echo. Anything? Ok...I’m exaggerating a little, but why is it that every season, I’m saying that this team is in need of a makeover? So…strengths. The trio of RBs (Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush) is the kind you could see on a championship club. They could all be starters, and they could also all fill roles. On defense, Nnamdi Asomugha, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard are the kind of players you can build a defense around.

Weaknesses – Where do I start? Heck…where else do you start? The Front Office (specifically Al Davis). This is one of the biggest jokes in the league. Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato should send oversized gift baskets to these folks every year, just for being able to say, “At least we’re not THAT bad.” A lot can be blamed on the coaching staff too, but the front office chose them too. On the field there are many weaknesses, highlighted by a defensive line that’s not only embarrassing on the field, but on paper as well. Tommy Kelly must step up and prove he deserves his huge contract.

Opportunities – Chaz Schilens steps in as the #1 WR and is ready to show that even though you’ve probably never heard of him, he can put up some numbers. I was high on Jon Alston coming out of Stanford in 2006. he never got a fair shot in St. Louis, but now he’ll have the first crack at the starting strong-side LB role. Samson Satele should have a chip on his shoulder to prove Bill Parcels wrong in his assessment that Satele cannot block the bigger DTs in the NFL.

Threats – What threats? At this point there is nowhere for this franchise to go but up. Or, maybe they’ve hit rock bottom, and have broken out the jackhammers and shovels. This team brings deeper meeting to the word “Suckitude”

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Justin Fargas is penciled in as the starter, however it looks like McFadden is ready to take on the Lion’s Share of the load. Michael Bush is in line to receive more carries as well. Fargas could lose a lot of time. Maybe that’s why the team quietly had him on the trading block. He’s a good RB, and teams like the Bengals could really use him.

Position Battle – QB: JaMarcus Russell vs. Jeff Garcia. It’s the Fat kid with no friends versus the pencil-necked geek. No matter who you pick, you’re probably ending up with a loser.

Rookie Contributor – WR Darrius Heyward-Bey is slated to start. Maybe being thrown to the wolves isn’t such a bad thing. He has all the tools to be great. WR Louis Murphy has the tools to be a #1 WR, but he needs the coaching and maturity to put it all together. He could be a steal in the 2009 draft.



San Diego Chargers

Strengths – The passing game for this team is elite. Phillip Rivers led the NFL in passing TDs last year. Vincent Jackson came into his own along with Malcolm Floyd. Chris Chambers is still good for a big catch here and there. If Antonio Gates can get back on track, this offense will be tough to stop. The left side of the offensive line is built to open holes for the running game. They are just good enough in pass blocking to keep Rivers off his back. Marcus McNeill leads the charge next to Kris Deilman. Over the last two seasons, Quentin Jammer has been fulfilling his draft day potential. With Antonio Cromartie healthy and Antoine Cason rounding out the trio, this team has one of the better sets of CBs in the league.

Weaknesses – The defensive line leaves a little to be desired. Ryon Bingham fills in for Igor Olshansky, who may be a bigger loss to the D-0Line than most would realize. Jamal Williams is up there in years and there isn’t another true NT on the roster that can spell him. Luis Castillo needs to decide if he’s an elite player or an average one. He follows up a great game with one where he disappears. The right side of the offensive line could give defenses an opportunity to attack. Many viewed this area as an area of need going into free agency, and the club didn’t do much to address it outside of the draft. Kynan Forney and Jeromey Clary could end up having a long year.

Opportunities – LaDanian Tomlinson looks to be ready to go, and some experts claim that he isn’t washed up yet. Look for LT to come out of the gates firing and to turn some heads, especially working with a change of pace back like Darren Sproles. At safety, Eric Weddle and Clinton hart started to gel last season and could prove to be a decent no-name tandem.

Threats – Can Norv Turner prove that he is over his inconsistency issues and keep this team at the top of the AFC West? On the field, Shawne Merriman’s knee is a big question mark. There was talk of the issue being a career threat. If Merriman gets back to 2007 form, Shaun Phillips will regain his form on the other side.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Marcus McNeill from Mike Goff as the leader of the offensive line. Goff was the cagy veteran that led this group. It’s now McNiell’s show to run, as he’s the man now.

Position Battle – WR2: Chris Chambers vs. Malcolm Floyd. Floyd made some huge catches last year, and seemed to surpass Chambers. However, Chambers is a solid target, and could fight Floyd off for another year. At ILB: Tim Dobbins vs. Kevin Burnett. Dobbins won’t be giving up the spot, until newly signed Burnett is comfortable with the system.

Rookie Contributor – Barring injuries, there may not be a rookie contributor. Closest thing would be Louis Vasquez at guard, if Fornay falters.

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Today's topic...

In all fairness, HERE is Porter's response.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 5

With a quarter of the season down the chute, we expected trends to start developing and performances to begin normalizing. Did we see that in Week 5? Nope. That said, here’s the Week 5 FourCast …

#1. The Washington Redskins Are For Real (and in October, not March)
Being from the Washington area, I am accustomed to hearing fans celebrating … in the month of March whenever a free agent is signed or whenever the team trades for a high-profile player. For years, I would mock Redskins fans and dub them the “Super Bowl Champions … of March”. In the last couple of seasons, the Redskins organization has discovered this thing called continuity and see that there’s some value. In spite of a new offensive system brought by a new coach, Jason Campbell’s millionth (seventh, actually) since he earned his high school diploma, the organization kept many of its coaches and players in place. They even had draft picks, one of which – Chris Horton – was defensive rookie for the month of September. The only return to business as usual for the Redskins was a trade for perennial Pro Bowl defensive end Jason Taylor; however, many, including myself, would argue that it was necessitated by season-ending injuries to two defensive ends on the same day in training camp and that it was not a move made by Dan Snyder for the sake of catching headlines. Since the nationally televised debacle against the New York Giants, Washington has rattled off four straight victories – two in succession at Dallas and Philadelphia. More importantly, the Redskins #6 offense (351.2 yards per game) has not given away the ball over nearly a third through the season and the defense has forced seven turnovers. Moving forward, the onus will be on head coach Jim Zorn to prepare his team for the next three games, in which the Redskins are expected to be favorites.

#2. Please Relegate the Detroit Lions
I don’t even want to call it football. That’s not what the Lions play. This team (a contradiction in terms, I know) has zero pride. If they had any, they would not fold like a lawn chair every time they stopped onto the field. I have and will continue to call the 11 (and sometimes, 12) people who stand on the field at the same time as their opponents’ offense a “Pop Warner Defense”.

Knowing this, I humbly request that the NFL relegates the Detroit Lions organization to either NFL Europe or the Arena League (or even, the CFL – they are close enough to Canada to become the Windsor Lions). My only requests for the promoted team is (a) that they have a cool name and (b) play as close or closer to the north as the Arizona Cardinals were to the east.

#3. Not Sold on Pittsburgh as a Contender
If you had an opportunity to watch Pittsburgh’s 26-21 victory at Jacksonville, then you are more likely to consider Ben Roethlisberger as one of the game’s best. After throwing a pick six to … you guessed, Rashean Mathis, Roethlisberger was undeterred in his pursuit to win and made plays all throughout the season despite lacking his top three running backs and a cohesive offensive line. Though Big Ben had a gymnast’s dexterity whenever the game hinged on his performance and the defense was impenetrable for much of the game, I am not sold on Pittsburgh’s ability to make a sustained run in the AFC. Despite playing in what many thought was the NFL’s weakest division prior to the season, the Steelers have required heroics to win the last two weeks and are another Big Ben body blow away from missing valuable snaps. Additionally, Pittsburgh is only 20th in rushing yards per game, a far cry from their #3 rank last season.

#4. Awkward Games Are This Season’s Calling Card
Anyone who watched last night’s Minnesota/New Orleans game or watched the highlights know that this was an awkward. It’s not every day that you see a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, a halfback pass for a score and two punt returns taken to the house (Craig Kluwe is so cut and gets the “Durant Brooks Award” for kicking two low line drives to Reggie Bush in succession after one was already returned for a score).

However, awkward games have been this season’s calling card. Less than thirty hours before the Monday Night game, Indianapolis was down three scores to Houston with less than five minutes to go. I’ll spare you the highlights, because all of our readers have already seen the meltdown and know that Indy has been given a lifeline. As a rule of thumb moving forward, any game involving New Orleans, Denver, Reliant Stadium, Minnesota (against real NFL teams only), Ed Hochuli’s crew, the Wildcat formation and the desert have an elevated awkwardness rating. Let’s call it “Code Orange”.

The Code Orange games for Week 6 include the following:
* Oakland @ New Orleans. The Saints will either lose and give up a 1.5 yards per carry against the Raiders or win and give up 400+ yards of total offense.

* Miami @ Houston. This is actually Code Red due to two factors being satisfied. If Hochuli does this game, we have a trifecta.

* Jacksonville @ Denver. The Broncos can easily win despite giving up 8 yards per carry and 80 yards to three Jags backs. Good luck tackling David Garrard.

* Dallas @ Arizona. Bizarre things happen in the desert. The quicker you accept this fundamental verity, the better you can handle the consequences. Last week, no one knew why the Cardinals were 1-point favorites against then-undefeated Buffalo (I picked them only because I had to for my pick ‘em league) despite not having the services of top-flight wide receiver Anquan Boldin and they won by 24.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 4

Three solid weeks of the FourCast to start off the season, and the NFL must have sensed I was coming to bat since it gave me a plethora of things to write/cheer/bitch/celebrate/groan about. Hell, so much happened that I didn't even have room to include an item complaining about the horrid officiating (Hochuli strikes again, and WTF happened in the MIN/TEN game??) or the horrid handling of fines for bitching about officiating (WHERE IS NORV TURNER'S F'ING FINE????). Y'all better behave in Week 8 ... otherwise I'll blast you then. For now, it's Week 4's FourCast...

#1. Enver Broncos (There’s no “D”)

I’m sorry, is it just me or is Paul Westhead coaching the Broncos? Westhead, of course, coached the other defense-less pro team in Denver history, the Nuggets, from 1990-1992. In his first season as coach, Westhead’s Nuggets put up a whopping 120 pts per game, kinda like the Broncos have been putting of 33.25 points per game. Problem? The Nuggets gave up 131 points per game. The Broncos haven’t given up more points than they’ve scored quite yet, giving up 29.25 points per game, but are well on their way to doing so. Denver ’s got a powerful offense that is relying heavily on the passing attack, but it cannot continue to win with a defense that gives up 33 points to Kansas City .

Unfortunately for Denver Fans, the Broncos Defense was listening to Peyton's chant...

#2. HOW BOUT DEM … Redskins?

Yes, I’m opting to use one of my points to be a homer. But how could I not, given that the Redskins outplayed a superstar-filled Dallas team in their last-ever meeting at Texas Stadium? The Skins managed an impressive ground game against DeMarcus Ware and Co., enabling the way to a balanced offensive attack (37 rushes, 31 passes) and over 38 minutes of possession time. After four weeks it seems that the Cowboys will have to tweak their defense quite a bit if they want to fulfill the glorious predictions that so many pundits have given (myself NOT included). As for Washington , given their penchant for consultation between players and coaches on the sidelines during each game, this is a team that is looking to learn, grow and develop after every single down played this season … and as a fan of both the Skins and of the NFL, this is something I really like.

Dat's mah Kotaback! Ima throw him under the bus for only gettin me the ball on 1/3 of the plays!

#3. Tragedy Strikes Collier

Why does it seem that I get tragedies related to NFL players for my Fourcasts? Monday afternoon I learned that Jacksonville ’s O-lineman, Richard Collier will be paralyzed from the waist down and also had his left leg amputated from above the knee. Following in the recent shootings of Sean Taylor and Darrent Williams, it seems that someone has painted a target on NFL players. Per the facts available in all three cases, the athletes were innocent in their actions prior to being shot. Taylor sought to defend his family from would-be burglars, Williams was having fun with friends on New Year’s Eve (though there are rumors of a potential dispute earlier in the evening at a nightclub), and Collier and a teammate were waiting for two women outside their apartment. While it is a miracle that Collier survived the 14 bullet wounds to the back, left groin, left legs and right buttock (per Yahoo! Sports), his promising career has been unfairly stopped at the age of 26.

Of course our prayers go out to Richard Collier and his family.

#4. No Family League

The other tragedy is the death of Matt Bryant’s infant son. Bryant buried his three month old son, Matthew Tryson Bryant, on Saturday, and then proceeded to play, and win the game, for the Bucs on Sunday. To lose a child is one of the most difficult things, and yet Bryant was pretty much forced to play. While, again, our prayers go out to the Bryant family, I also am disgusted and appalled that the NFL does not allow a roster exemption for bereavement and other drastically important family matters.

Given the current layout of rules in the “No Family League,” a team can receive a roster exemption for having a douchebag as a player (see Chris Henry, Pacman Jones, et al.), but cannot receive such an exemption for having a dedicated family man on its team. So whether a player’s wife starts giving birth to his first-born child or a player’s spouse, parent, sibling or child dies, that player is all but forced to play. I’m sure the Bucs gave Bryant the option of missing the game, but, being a consummate professional and realizing that his absence would require the team to cut another member in order to sign a replacement kicker, Bryant kicked his team to victory with a very heavy heart.

Kudos and prayers to you, Matt Bryant.

A double-dose of my middle finger to you, NFL policy makers.

Discussion Topic: The Value of Rudi Johnson in Fantasy Football

Since its inception nearly two years ago, PHSports has been about improving upon past work. Often times, the contributors – Clement, Armin, Sum and myself – have had entertaining and well-informed discussions that have never reached the eyes of our readers. That sparked an idea. Every so often, we will post the discussions that we have to PHSports for our readers to enjoy, absorb and contribute to the marketplace of ideas.

That said, Sum recently had a draft in which he selected Rudi Johnson in the 9th round of a 12-team league. This led to an exchange of comments between Armin, Sum and me. Clement was too busy teaching the next batch of heathens scholars from Richmond, Virginia.

Armin: I really like the Rudi Johnson pick. Whether he gets traded or stays in Cincy (he’s staying in Cincy), he’s going to have a comeback year.

Pay: I don't know about Rudi. I don't think he'll ever be the 1400-yard back again. I liked him a lot out of Auburn, because he was underappreciated despite being a beast. Even in 2006 when he had 1309 yards and 12 TDs, he only averaged 3.8 ypc and 6 fumbles (only 2 lost). What kills me is that his longest run out of 341 tries was only 22 yards.

Armin: He was hurt all last year, and a power-back is going to be right there around 4ypc. LT spent 2 of his 1200-1300 yard seasons under the 4ypc mark...and I'll be damned if you ever made that statement about him.

Rudi: Fell from 1st-round to second half in fantasy drafts

Credit: Cincinnati.com

Pay: One of those was his rookie year. He had 59 and 53 catches in those seasons. He also had longs of 42 and 54, which comparatively are weak in comparison to his portfolio. I'm aware that Rudi was hurt. Before he started hurting, his stats started dipping. Mind you, these stats started dipping despite having a full complement of skill position players in an offense that commonly uses 3 and 4-WR sets. LT did not have such a luxury, though Gates was awesome in 2004.

Also, outside of fantasy, even when LT isn't running well, he's an excellent pass blocker. Rudi is not and often gets replaced on passing downs. Time to get out of preseason form with the weak comparison.

Armin: You're getting into semantics. It's all about the fantasy performance and the numbers you put up, right?

Sum: I got Rudi in round 9 ... for that slot, I think that's a great grab, even if he "only" gets 1200 on 3.8 ypc ... esp since ypc isn't a fantasy stat. Also, comparing Rudi to LT is like comparing Jeff Garcia to Tom Brady. One is a serviceable player who should do just fine as a bye-week filler, the other is a beast.

Pay: You would like to grab Rudi, wouldn't you?

Armin: I'm just saying it's not a weak argument. All I was trying to say was, 3.8 yards for a powerback isn't hateful if he's serving his purpose. Hell, in Clement's league 24 carries for 54 yards is worth more than 2 for 54 (not seeing the point on breaking long ones, especially when you are comparing them with a goal-line back who gets their TDs). And the BEAST, LT has averaged 3.9 yards in one of his "beast" years and he's not exactly a "power back" (though I know he can play that role when needed)...he's more of a middle ground back who does a little of everything and has the ability to break one.

Yes, LT gets his receiving points....but LT is also a top pick. It shouldn't take a genius to figure out those differences (or that I'm not stupid enough to put Rudi and LT on the same EXACT level).

Back to the original point: "I really like the Rudi Johnson pick." (copied from earlier). If Pay doesn't think that's a good 9th round pick...then that speaks volumes of his weak "preseason-ish" analysis.

Pay: It was a low-risk, high-reward pick. I'd have opted for Selvin Young at the RB position in that round. I'll refrain from pulling the childish "how have your fantasy teams done" card, but all four of us know that my preseason fantasy analysis has been rock solid for at least the last 3 years.

Armin: Pull the card. I won 2 and finished in the championship in 3 of the 4 leagues I was in last year. And then there was Maria's team that won her a championship too. I think that speaks volumes again.

POW!!!

Pay: 2 for 3 in playoff championships. Very strong. Why wasn't it 3 for 3? :)

Armin: Bastej [sic] ....my team didn't show up. But that wouldn't have mattered....I lost it by the first set of games because your team showed up.

Pay: Had your team showed up, it wouldn't have mattered. Dr. Acula was a wrecking crew in the playoffs.

Sum: [Selvin] Young was available, but given Shanahan's record, how long will Young actually play? Given my back and forth with Denver RBs the past season, I wasn't going to risk it.
And Pay, your preseason analysis has been rock solid. Just ask Tom Brady.

Armin: R U Serious?! Ok...agree with you (Pay) there. Would have taken Young over Johnson (which is why I asked if he was even there in the 9th). In fact...I took Young over Johnson in our draft (I think...unless Johnson went before him...but would have taken Young regardless just based on his potential in Denver...hell, any RB’s potential). But, anyway...if Johnson is healed....he's good for at least 1000 and ~10 (with a variance...or is it standard deviation....of 2).