NFL SWOT Analysis: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Strengths – The Ravens have an offensive line that coaches dream of. They are versatile. They are mostly young, having yet to scratch the surface of their potential. With the addition of Matt Birk, they get a savvy veteran leader who will make all the line calls. In the next 2-3 years, Jared Gaither and Michael Oher could be the top tackle tandem in the NFL (they’ll get an early start with Adam Terry going down for the year). Ben Grubbs and Marshel Yanda have been in the trenches since they were rookies. The RBs could be very strong this year, if McGahee and Rice return in full health. Le’Ron McClain moves to more of a non-traditional FB role after leading the team in rushing last season. On defense, they still have monster talent in Haloti Ngata, Trevor Pryce, Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed.

Weaknesses – The CBs are in a transition. While Fabian Washington was a breath of fresh air last year, teaming him up with Dominique Foxworth doesn’t make up the most desirable CB tandem. Samari Rolle, knee deep into his decline, will be the nickel back. At TE, Todd Heap took several steps back last season, as did new arrival L.J. Smith when he was in Philly. Will the two TEs together be enough to make up for last year’s void?

Opportunities – McClain’s move to the hybrid RB/FB role could make him one of the most valuable assets on offense as both as a blocker and runner. Tavares Gooden has an opportunity to prove that he is every bit as good as Bart Scott at freeing up Ray Lewis to wreak havoc on opposing defenders.

Threats – In my opinion, Joe Flacco has a stronger chance, than most would like to admit, at having a sophomore slump. Making a trade for Brandon Marshall would make a lot of sense (except for the fact that he’s a bit of a head case). Kelly Gregg and Trevor Pryce are up there in years. While Pryce has a decent backup, Gregg does not. Haloti Ngata may be able to slide inside. This should have been addressed in the draft.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – This could be the year that Terrell Suggs finally takes over for Ray Lewis as the Defensive Stud of the team. On the offensive side, Mark Clayton should be ready to take on the #1 WR role previously held by Derrick Mason.

Position Battle – WR3: Demetrius Williams vs. Yamon Figurs vs/ Kelley Washington all have their strengths and weaknesses. One must emerge as the playmaker in 3-WR sets. Williams has the early lead, and the team would love that to be Figurs, with his blazing speed. However, a rejuvenated Kelley Washington is the dark horse.

Rookie Contributor – Michael Oher was in line for a camp battle, but with Adam Terry going down to a season-long injury, Oher has an open shot. Oniel Cousins seems too much of a project to push Oher. A vet could be signed as well. RB Cedric Peerman could get some playing time IF there are injuries at RB much like last year. He’s not a bad prospect, he just slipped a little low in the draft.



Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths – The passing offense could be the one of the few bright spots for this team. Carson Palmer feels like he did before his injury. Ocho Cinco has a lot to prove. Last year was a dismal year for him, and with Houshmandzadeh gone, Chad will have every opportunity to resurrect his stature as one of the top WRs in the league. Laveranues Coles usually does great in his first year with a new club. Chris Henry might have actually matured this time around. The defense is young with veterans where leadership where it needs it most. The defense may be forced to carry this team if the passing game falters.

Weaknesses – The top two RBs on this team are under-achievers. Cedric Benson and Brian Leonard could give this team fits at the RB position all season. But, both have potential. The offensive line looks like it will be shaky this season. The one player returning the the same position as a starter is RG Bobbie Williams. The Andrew Whitworth LT project could be disastrous. Andre Smith needs to prove that he can eventually play on the left side.

Opportunities – Keith Rivers looked like a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate before his jaw got busted. He has every opportunity to be the leader of this defense. Chris Henry seems to have learned from his past mistakes. If he can avoid distractions off the field, he has the talent to be a top-flight WR on it.

Threats – This one is very simple. As long as this front office and coaching staff is in place, the norm is that the inmates will run the asylum.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – IF Henry matures and Chad doesn’t, Henry will become Palmer’s favorite target. Forget Coles.

Position Battle – SS: Roy Williams vs. Chinedum Ndukwe. Ndukwe is more rangy and has some effectiveness in pass coverage. Roy Williams can step up and help against the run better than most safeties in the league.

Rookie Contributor – RT Andre Smith will start this season, and should eventually (over the next couple of years) slide over to LT and settle there for the long-term. TE Chase Coffman may be in line for a bunch of snaps, now that Reggie Kelly went down for the year.



Cleveland Browns

Strengths – This team is very lucky to have the offensive line that it has. They would be a much worse team without them. From Joe Thomas to Eric Steinbach to Alex Mack, this line is deep and has a nice mix of young and old players. The defensive line, led by Andre The Giant clone, Shaun Rogers is flanked by a deep set of LBs, that must come together and try to lead this defense. If Mangini can tap into some of the potential in the front seven, they could be effective.

Weaknesses – Who are they kidding with Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald as their starting CBs? Those are nickel backs on most teams. Who do they think they are? The Patriots? The RB corps is weak. Jamal Lewis is 29, old by RB standards, especially when you consider his running style. James Harrison didn’t scare any defenses when filling in. Nobody else is worth mentioning. Losing Kellen Winslow will be a pretty big blow to this team. While it’s nice not to hear his lip, the team will miss his playmaking abilities.

Opportunities – Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson still have a somewhat healthy competition. However, last year cannot happen again, with both of them underachieving. For Kamerion Wimbley, it is “Put up or Shut up” time. He’s on the verge of being a bust, however is being counted on as a defensive playmaker. Alex Hall will get opportunities on passing downs. He could be the pass rusher that Wimbley was supposed to be.

Threats – The Braylon Edwards situation could become a distraction. Edwards is the most talented skill-position player on offense. However, at this pace, he could continue his regression that started last season. Couple Edwards’s situation with the fact that Joshua Cribbs is in his own contract dispute with the team, and there is a recipe for disaster.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – If Cribbs is in camp and Edwards is not, expect Cribbs to take the offensive playmaker torch and run with it. He’s a home-run threat. Now if he can just get his contract situation figured out.

Position Battle – There are many. However, all eyes will be on the QB battle. The race is neck and neck at this point.

Rookie Contributor – Alex Mack if he can beat out Hank Fraley. If Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi end up getting a lot of work during the season, it’s possible the team isn’t doing so well.



Pittsburgh Steelers

Strengths – Where don’t the Super Bowl Champs have strengths? The offensive skill position starters (Roethlisburger, Ward, Holmes, Parker and Miller) have started together for many years and work very well together. With playmakers like James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley playing outside of James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons, the Steelers could have the best set of 3-4 LBs in the league. The DBs are an underrated crew led by a beast, Troy Polamalu. Ryan Clark is no stranger to enhancing a beast safety (Sean Taylor). He is a great complimentary player.

Weaknesses – The offensive line gave up a lot of sacks during the season. The team didn’t do a good job of addressing that in the draft and free agency. The only good thing is that the line came together and did well in the playoffs.

Opportunities – Limas Sweed gets a nice shot at taking the #3 WR spot. Sweed might have been regarded as the top WR in the 2008 draft had it not been for the wrist injury. Rashard Mendenhall is coming off a major injury last season, but will have every opportunity to beat out Mewelde Moore for the back up RB spot.

Threats – This is the default for any Defending Super Bowl Champ. Teams will bring their best against the Steelers this season. It’s rare that a defending champ does better during their title defense.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Santonio Holmes (gradually) from Hines Ward, as the #1 WR on the team. Holmes’s spectacular playmaking ability is much greater than Ward’s.

Position Battle – WR3: Limas Sweed vs. Shaun McDonald. The 3rd WR for the Steelers is always known for making big plays in clutch situations. Nate Washington was a perfect example. Sweed may be the favorite, but Shaun McDonald may be ready to do better now that he’s had a breath of fresh air outside of Detroit.

Rookie Contributor – Ziggy Hood should battle Brett Keisel for the starting DE spot opposite Aaron Smith. There are reports that Hood may already be penciled in as the starter.

Roger Goodell Has No Spine

There are a few truths that we hold to be self-evident.

• The Detroit Lions is the worst franchise in the NFL
• Unless handed a no-brainer pick, the Sonics/Thunder will draft a project power forward/center
• The Cubs will always disappoint
• Tom Brady is one good looking dude
• The voice of DJ Khaled should be added to the Geneva Conventions' interpretation of what consistutes torture

Here's another one: NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell has no spine.

Yeah, I went there. Many feel strongly that Adam "Pacman" Jones should not have been reinstated for his repeated indiscretions and would not have been reinstated unless he played for the NFL's most marketable franchise, the Dallas Cowboys. Meanwhile, not only has Jones been reinstated since becoming a member of the Dallas Cowboys, he is back in the news this week for getting into a fight with the team-issued bodyguard. Not surprisingly, Mr. Win At All Costs himself, Jerry Jones, has come out already and stated that the other Jones will not be suspended by the team. Ironically enough, or not so much at all, #1 cornerback Terrence Newman had surgery to repair a tear in his groin muscle and will be out for approximately a month. To date, there has been no suspension from the Commissioner's office for a player who was granted reinstatement on the assumption that no funny business would be tolerated. I wonder what Odell Thurman thinks about that.

While I understand that the Commissioner's office has to do its due diligence in any investigation of wrongdoing, it has acted swiftly in other matters that involved franchises of lesser stature (see the Cincinnati Bengals). Need I mention Spygate and which franchise was involved? Some have argued that the stripping of New England's first-round pick was an enormous penalty and that Goodell could not have taken away the 7th pick New England held which they acquired via trade from San Francisco for the rights to Joe Staley. My response ... he's the Commissioner and he can take away whatever he wishes. If he wishes.

At the end of the day, it's easy to come down hard on franchises that have more arrests than wins. It's a low risk, high reward situation for Goodell. When he came down hard on recidivists like Odell Thurman or Chris Henry, he was applauded by many for rooting out the bad behavior that his predecessor addressed with less purported ferocity.

In the case of the Commissioner addressing indiscretions coming from "America's Team" or the only team to win three Super Bowls this decade, it has to be considered high risk and medium (at best) reward. By coming down hard on the league's most valuable franchises, Goodell would be biting the proverbial hand that feeds him. Unfortunately, in the case of Roger Goodell, biting the hand that feeds him precedes doing what is right and what is consistent with his mission of improving player conduct in the NFL.

For those reasons, Roger Goodell is spineless and fits in pretty well with his political equivalents in Washington. What Goodell needs to do is to shape up and make decisions based on what is right for the league rather than making inconsistent judgments based on the ideals of self preservation.

Tangled Up Bungles

As a DCPO (Disgruntled Carson Palmer Owner) and for no other reason, I am curious to know why the Cincinnati Bengals’ offense has stumbled out of the blocks in 2008.

It's put up or shut up time for the Bengals

Credit: Third and Long

Key Statistics from Week 2

First Down Differential: -5
Yards Per Carry: 3.1
Net Opp. Rushing Yards: 177
Turnover Differential: -1
Time of Possession: 27:26
QB rating: 41.3

Key Statistics from Week 1

First Down Differential: -13
Yards Per Carry: 2.8
Net Opp. Rushing Yards: 229
Turnover Differential: 0
Time of Possession: 23:45
QB rating: 35.3

As a result of their ineptitude, the Bungles rank dead last (NFL averages) in first downs, time of possession and passing yards and 30th in rushing yards allowed. Through two games, Cincinnati is averaging less than half of their first downs last season (20.0 per game) and are vastly underperforming from their 2007 season ranks in the passing department (7th), total offense (10th) and points scored (11th).

Though I’ve heard the phrase “Carson Palmer is done” more than a few times in the past couple weeks, I simply remind those people of Drew Brees who was comparatively atrocious and played poorly for four straight games prior to waking up from his quarter season-long coma.

Could it be cutting Rudi Johnson? Or, perhaps the sending off of tackle Willie Anderson in favor of the less experienced Stacy Andrews? Did Chad Johnson’s antics piss off more people than you or I thought it would? Are the wide receivers unable to get open for a QB who’s moving at Jason Campbell speed through his progressions? Has Marvin Lewis lost the locker room? Have “the same five plays”, as Clement puts it, made defenses ready for what’s coming and made Bob Bratkowski’s once-thriving offense (http://www.bengals.com/team/coach.asp?coach_id=5) obsolete? Does the defense lay out a welcome mat for even the most obscure opposing backs to run all over for games on end?

Bengal WRs: Nowhere to be found

Credit: CNN/SI

In a single word, … YES. It’s all of these things and a few more, like welcoming back criminal recidivist Chris Henry. While it’s too early to declare this season over and order a massive overhaul after two poor showings, the Bungles had better make things right internally before their Week 3 tilt with the defending Super Bowl Champion, the New York Giants.

Discussion Topic: The Value of Rudi Johnson in Fantasy Football

Since its inception nearly two years ago, PHSports has been about improving upon past work. Often times, the contributors – Clement, Armin, Sum and myself – have had entertaining and well-informed discussions that have never reached the eyes of our readers. That sparked an idea. Every so often, we will post the discussions that we have to PHSports for our readers to enjoy, absorb and contribute to the marketplace of ideas.

That said, Sum recently had a draft in which he selected Rudi Johnson in the 9th round of a 12-team league. This led to an exchange of comments between Armin, Sum and me. Clement was too busy teaching the next batch of heathens scholars from Richmond, Virginia.

Armin: I really like the Rudi Johnson pick. Whether he gets traded or stays in Cincy (he’s staying in Cincy), he’s going to have a comeback year.

Pay: I don't know about Rudi. I don't think he'll ever be the 1400-yard back again. I liked him a lot out of Auburn, because he was underappreciated despite being a beast. Even in 2006 when he had 1309 yards and 12 TDs, he only averaged 3.8 ypc and 6 fumbles (only 2 lost). What kills me is that his longest run out of 341 tries was only 22 yards.

Armin: He was hurt all last year, and a power-back is going to be right there around 4ypc. LT spent 2 of his 1200-1300 yard seasons under the 4ypc mark...and I'll be damned if you ever made that statement about him.

Rudi: Fell from 1st-round to second half in fantasy drafts

Credit: Cincinnati.com

Pay: One of those was his rookie year. He had 59 and 53 catches in those seasons. He also had longs of 42 and 54, which comparatively are weak in comparison to his portfolio. I'm aware that Rudi was hurt. Before he started hurting, his stats started dipping. Mind you, these stats started dipping despite having a full complement of skill position players in an offense that commonly uses 3 and 4-WR sets. LT did not have such a luxury, though Gates was awesome in 2004.

Also, outside of fantasy, even when LT isn't running well, he's an excellent pass blocker. Rudi is not and often gets replaced on passing downs. Time to get out of preseason form with the weak comparison.

Armin: You're getting into semantics. It's all about the fantasy performance and the numbers you put up, right?

Sum: I got Rudi in round 9 ... for that slot, I think that's a great grab, even if he "only" gets 1200 on 3.8 ypc ... esp since ypc isn't a fantasy stat. Also, comparing Rudi to LT is like comparing Jeff Garcia to Tom Brady. One is a serviceable player who should do just fine as a bye-week filler, the other is a beast.

Pay: You would like to grab Rudi, wouldn't you?

Armin: I'm just saying it's not a weak argument. All I was trying to say was, 3.8 yards for a powerback isn't hateful if he's serving his purpose. Hell, in Clement's league 24 carries for 54 yards is worth more than 2 for 54 (not seeing the point on breaking long ones, especially when you are comparing them with a goal-line back who gets their TDs). And the BEAST, LT has averaged 3.9 yards in one of his "beast" years and he's not exactly a "power back" (though I know he can play that role when needed)...he's more of a middle ground back who does a little of everything and has the ability to break one.

Yes, LT gets his receiving points....but LT is also a top pick. It shouldn't take a genius to figure out those differences (or that I'm not stupid enough to put Rudi and LT on the same EXACT level).

Back to the original point: "I really like the Rudi Johnson pick." (copied from earlier). If Pay doesn't think that's a good 9th round pick...then that speaks volumes of his weak "preseason-ish" analysis.

Pay: It was a low-risk, high-reward pick. I'd have opted for Selvin Young at the RB position in that round. I'll refrain from pulling the childish "how have your fantasy teams done" card, but all four of us know that my preseason fantasy analysis has been rock solid for at least the last 3 years.

Armin: Pull the card. I won 2 and finished in the championship in 3 of the 4 leagues I was in last year. And then there was Maria's team that won her a championship too. I think that speaks volumes again.

POW!!!

Pay: 2 for 3 in playoff championships. Very strong. Why wasn't it 3 for 3? :)

Armin: Bastej [sic] ....my team didn't show up. But that wouldn't have mattered....I lost it by the first set of games because your team showed up.

Pay: Had your team showed up, it wouldn't have mattered. Dr. Acula was a wrecking crew in the playoffs.

Sum: [Selvin] Young was available, but given Shanahan's record, how long will Young actually play? Given my back and forth with Denver RBs the past season, I wasn't going to risk it.
And Pay, your preseason analysis has been rock solid. Just ask Tom Brady.

Armin: R U Serious?! Ok...agree with you (Pay) there. Would have taken Young over Johnson (which is why I asked if he was even there in the 9th). In fact...I took Young over Johnson in our draft (I think...unless Johnson went before him...but would have taken Young regardless just based on his potential in Denver...hell, any RB’s potential). But, anyway...if Johnson is healed....he's good for at least 1000 and ~10 (with a variance...or is it standard deviation....of 2).