NFL SWOT Analysis: AFC West

Denver Broncos

Strengths – The Broncos once again have an athletic offensive line lacking big names. However, this is an ideal fit for Josh McDaniels’s offense. As a rookie, LT Ryan Clady proved to be one of the best pass blockers in the game. Center Casey Weigman was a pro bowler. At TE, the team has Daniel Graham who was successful in his days in New England in the same offense. Tony Scheffler may not be as athletic as Ben Watson, but isn’t far, and boasts better hands. Look to them to be a strength in the offensive attack. On Defense, if either Robert Ayers or Jarvis Moss step up, the LB crew could bring this defense to the level that can help the team survive in the playoffs.

Weaknesses – Many will disagree, but I think settling on Kyle Orton was a mistake. Sure, he won some games in Chicago, but this is an offense that’s built on padding a QB’s stats. If Orton’s numbers don’t shine, he’s gotta go. Could people be laughing at the Broncos for passing on Jason Campbell in a very easy trade? The defensive line is made up from a bunch of junk from other teams. Ronald Fields may be the best of the bunch, and that’s not saying much. All three starters look like stop-gaps that will be replaced at some point.

Opportunities – Correll Buckhalter, if healthy, can show why Andy Reid kept giving him so many chances after so many season ending injuries. Eddie Royal steps into the WR1 role with Brandon Marshall’s situation in flux. Brandon Stokely must return to form from when he was a 1000 yard receiver. If not, Orton doesn’t have many long options. Alphonso Smith is a mature rookie who will be needed at CB. The starters are either past their prime or getting there quickly.

Threats – The Brandon Marshall situation could have an effect in the locker room and on the field. Players could be torn on whether he should stay or go. One thing remains clear: If he leaves, there will be some huge shoes to fill on offense, as he is an elite receiver on the field. One of the things the team has lacked (and still does) is an offensive leader. The team could use someone like that to keep teammates like Marshall in line.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Dawkins (the older player in this case) taking the Defensive Captain/Leadership role from Champ Bailey. Honestly, while Bailey has heart, he’s never been a defensive captain type. Dawkins brings a lot to the table for this team.

Position Battle – OLB opposite Elvis Dumervil: Five candidates. Mario Haggan is penciled in as the starter for now. However Darrell Reid, Robert Ayers, Jarvis Moss and Tim Crowder will all vie for the spot.

Rookie Contributor – CB Alphonso Smith could wind up starting over Andre Goodman, depending on what happens in the preseason. OLB Robert Ayers is in the mix for the starting OLB spot. Both Darcel McBath and David Bruton could see time at SS.



Kansas City Chiefs

Strengths – This is a young team. Give them a season to pull it all together, and they can surprise. The DBs are a very young crew. They did an admirable job last year with their top 3 CBs being rookies (Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr, Maurice Leggett), and both Ss in their second year (Jarrad Page and Bernard Pollard). This group could end up leading this defense for the next half-decade. The O-Line is a tough group. Larry Johnson has every opportunity to return to All-Pro form. Adding Mike Goff at RG solidified the weakest link on the line and forms a great run-blocking tandem on the right side with Damion McIntosh.

Weaknesses – At this point, the backup D-Line looks better than the starters. Tank Tyler and Tyson Jackson need to step up and claim their starting spots. Glenn Dorsey just needs to show up in some way…any way…to give the team some hope that he might one day pan out. Beyond Dwayne Bowe, the WRs on this team are weak. When the team is counting on Ashley Lelie, Bobby Engram, Amani Toomer and Devard Darling to step up, there is trouble.

Opportunities – The quartet of LBs have two leaders that the team can learn a lot from. Mike Vrabel has lived in the 3-4 defense, and Zach Thomas (whether he can get on the field or not) can teach youngsters about heart. With both of those players placed around him, Derrick Johnson takes on a playmaker role that could have him putting up great numbers. On offense, Brad Cottam must show that he can take the starting TE spot. He has a lot of untapped potential that would ease the loss of Gonzalez, even if it’s only eased a little.

Threats – With Dwayne Bowe given extra bench time, how soon before he formally asks for a trade? Apparently the Jets are interested. The team doesn’t have the receiving corps to make up for that loss. Todd Haley also has to remember that he doesn’t have Fitz, Boldin and Breaston anymore.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Matt Cassel from Larry Johnson as the new big-money under-achiever.

Position Battle – QB: Matt Cassel vs. Brodie Croyle. Apparently Croyle is putting the heat on Cassel. I’ve liked Croyle since he came into the league. Too bad Cassel has the contract.

Rookie Contributor – Tyson Jackson should eventually unseat Alphonso Boone at the left DE spot.



Oakland Raiders

Strengths – Hello!!! Hello-hello-hello. Echo!!1 Echo-echo-echo. Anything? Ok...I’m exaggerating a little, but why is it that every season, I’m saying that this team is in need of a makeover? So…strengths. The trio of RBs (Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden and Michael Bush) is the kind you could see on a championship club. They could all be starters, and they could also all fill roles. On defense, Nnamdi Asomugha, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard are the kind of players you can build a defense around.

Weaknesses – Where do I start? Heck…where else do you start? The Front Office (specifically Al Davis). This is one of the biggest jokes in the league. Daniel Snyder and Vinny Cerrato should send oversized gift baskets to these folks every year, just for being able to say, “At least we’re not THAT bad.” A lot can be blamed on the coaching staff too, but the front office chose them too. On the field there are many weaknesses, highlighted by a defensive line that’s not only embarrassing on the field, but on paper as well. Tommy Kelly must step up and prove he deserves his huge contract.

Opportunities – Chaz Schilens steps in as the #1 WR and is ready to show that even though you’ve probably never heard of him, he can put up some numbers. I was high on Jon Alston coming out of Stanford in 2006. he never got a fair shot in St. Louis, but now he’ll have the first crack at the starting strong-side LB role. Samson Satele should have a chip on his shoulder to prove Bill Parcels wrong in his assessment that Satele cannot block the bigger DTs in the NFL.

Threats – What threats? At this point there is nowhere for this franchise to go but up. Or, maybe they’ve hit rock bottom, and have broken out the jackhammers and shovels. This team brings deeper meeting to the word “Suckitude”

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Justin Fargas is penciled in as the starter, however it looks like McFadden is ready to take on the Lion’s Share of the load. Michael Bush is in line to receive more carries as well. Fargas could lose a lot of time. Maybe that’s why the team quietly had him on the trading block. He’s a good RB, and teams like the Bengals could really use him.

Position Battle – QB: JaMarcus Russell vs. Jeff Garcia. It’s the Fat kid with no friends versus the pencil-necked geek. No matter who you pick, you’re probably ending up with a loser.

Rookie Contributor – WR Darrius Heyward-Bey is slated to start. Maybe being thrown to the wolves isn’t such a bad thing. He has all the tools to be great. WR Louis Murphy has the tools to be a #1 WR, but he needs the coaching and maturity to put it all together. He could be a steal in the 2009 draft.



San Diego Chargers

Strengths – The passing game for this team is elite. Phillip Rivers led the NFL in passing TDs last year. Vincent Jackson came into his own along with Malcolm Floyd. Chris Chambers is still good for a big catch here and there. If Antonio Gates can get back on track, this offense will be tough to stop. The left side of the offensive line is built to open holes for the running game. They are just good enough in pass blocking to keep Rivers off his back. Marcus McNeill leads the charge next to Kris Deilman. Over the last two seasons, Quentin Jammer has been fulfilling his draft day potential. With Antonio Cromartie healthy and Antoine Cason rounding out the trio, this team has one of the better sets of CBs in the league.

Weaknesses – The defensive line leaves a little to be desired. Ryon Bingham fills in for Igor Olshansky, who may be a bigger loss to the D-0Line than most would realize. Jamal Williams is up there in years and there isn’t another true NT on the roster that can spell him. Luis Castillo needs to decide if he’s an elite player or an average one. He follows up a great game with one where he disappears. The right side of the offensive line could give defenses an opportunity to attack. Many viewed this area as an area of need going into free agency, and the club didn’t do much to address it outside of the draft. Kynan Forney and Jeromey Clary could end up having a long year.

Opportunities – LaDanian Tomlinson looks to be ready to go, and some experts claim that he isn’t washed up yet. Look for LT to come out of the gates firing and to turn some heads, especially working with a change of pace back like Darren Sproles. At safety, Eric Weddle and Clinton hart started to gel last season and could prove to be a decent no-name tandem.

Threats – Can Norv Turner prove that he is over his inconsistency issues and keep this team at the top of the AFC West? On the field, Shawne Merriman’s knee is a big question mark. There was talk of the issue being a career threat. If Merriman gets back to 2007 form, Shaun Phillips will regain his form on the other side.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Marcus McNeill from Mike Goff as the leader of the offensive line. Goff was the cagy veteran that led this group. It’s now McNiell’s show to run, as he’s the man now.

Position Battle – WR2: Chris Chambers vs. Malcolm Floyd. Floyd made some huge catches last year, and seemed to surpass Chambers. However, Chambers is a solid target, and could fight Floyd off for another year. At ILB: Tim Dobbins vs. Kevin Burnett. Dobbins won’t be giving up the spot, until newly signed Burnett is comfortable with the system.

Rookie Contributor – Barring injuries, there may not be a rookie contributor. Closest thing would be Louis Vasquez at guard, if Fornay falters.

5 NFL Questions - Week 5

1. Will the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers be able to play and be effective?
2. With both starting tackles out for Carolina, can Kansas City actually get to the quarterback?
3. Can Indianapolis hold Houston's backs to under 125 yards?
4. Which unconventional formation (if any) will we see from the Miami Dolphins?
5. Is Adrian Peterson due for a 200-yard game?

2007 NFL Predictions: Review/Analysis

Last summer, I made my preseason predictions for every NFL team’s final record, the playoff teams and the Super Bowl. Y’all stuck with me as I made three sets of picks: before the draft, after the draft (and once free agency cooled down) and finally just before the start of the regular season. This year, there are just going to be two posts. This post, in which I’ll berate and applaud my 2007 picks (where appropriate), and a post devoted to my 2008 picks, due sometime before September 4.

Just as a reminder, I made these picks by printing out the 2007 NFL regular season schedule and selecting the winner of each of the 256 games. Tiebreakers for playoff spots and seedings were determined based on those selections per the NFL guidelines. No HGH or steroids were taken in making these picks.

NFC
NFC East *Philadelphia 11-5 **Dallas 10-6 Washington 8-8 NY Giants 4-12 Considering that all teams finished 8-8 or higher in this division, I didn’t do so bad … with the exception of the G-Men. Yeah, sorry, screwed the pooch on that one! Who knew that Eli would grow a pair and score the biggest upset in Super Bowl history? I still think I get some minor props for only being 1-game off on the ‘Skins record when peeps mocked me for it.	NFC North *Chicago 13-3 Green Bay 9-7 Detroit 5-11 Minnesota 2-14 Here’s where I should’ve told y’all off and stuck to my 11-5 record for the Pack (from my 1st set of picks). Instead I paid some attention to the bashing by some “anonymous” poster who bashed the number of wins I had for them. And why the hell did I drink the Chicago kool-aid? Did I really trust Grossman/Benson? And, yes Vikes fans … my bad.
NFC South *New Orleans 11-5 Carolina 9-7 Tampa Bay 5-11 Atlanta 4-12 I got the Falcons record dead-on (pat on back). Everything else was pretty crappy. I thought the loss of Simeon Rice would have affected the Bucs negatively … guess I was wrong. Though, I still wonder if the Saints could’ve finished 11-5 if Deuce hadn’t gone down after week 3…	NFC West *Seattle 10-6 **San Francisco 10-6 St. Louis 8-8 Arizona 7-9 Initially I had the Rams at 6-10 … and even that was too good for them! I totally overshot the ‘49ers (d’oh … so much for Alex Smith), but got the Seahawks dead on both in record and place in the division. The Cardinals did just about how I expected in terms of their record … but who knew that they would’ve finished 2nd?
AFC
AFC East *New England 12-4 NY Jets 8-8 Buffalo 5-11 Miami 3-13 Well … I got the top and bottom of this division right, just messed up the placing of the Bills and Jets. In terms of records, I was actually more accurate with the Fins and Bills (2 games off) than the Jets and Pats (4 games off). Though, I would like to point out that Mr. Anonymous (from the GB discussion above) also bashed my New England pick here, claiming the Pats wouldn’t even win a playoff game. Good job, buddy.	AFC North *Baltimore 13-3 **Cincinnati 11-5 Pittsburgh 10-6 Cleveland 4-12 Aside from getting the Steelers record exactly right, I fudged the bucket everywhere else in the AFC North. I had this division pegged as the strongest in the AFC, but was dead wrong … and Brian Billick paid the price (sorry Bri Bri). I finished a whopping 18 games off the pace overall in the AFC North. You may now commence your berating.
AFC South *Indianapolis 12-4 Tennessee 9-7 Jacksonville 6-10 Houston 5-11 I got the easy picks right in the South … Indy first and Houston last. But I underestimated the entire division (primarily thanks to my overestimation of the North … friggin Ravens). Not much else to say here, other than I blew it by blaming the Jaguars for sticking with Garrard. And while I did think that Tennessee would be in the playoff hunt, I didn’t give them enough credit to make the post-season. Shamed again.	AFC West *San Diego 13-3 **Denver 12-4 Kansas City 4-12 Oakland 3-13 The only division that I picked correctly from top to bottom. However, the main thing I’d like to point out is that the Kansas City Chiefs actually finished 4-12. Why is this important? Oh … I’ll tell you why. In my initial picks, I had KC at 4-12, yet “Chris” from “Arrowhead Pride,” opted to be a homer and a dick combined. I think I might just quote him: “the Chiefs will win more than 4 games. I will take a bet on this.” Well Chris, all I can say is … Pay up, biatch! I will gladly take a win here.

Exact Records predictions: Four (Atlanta, Seattle, Pittsburgh and Kansas City (in bold just for Chris)).

Records picks within 2 games: Fourteen (Washington, Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina, Seattle, Arizona, Buffalo, Miami, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Tennessee, San Diego, Kansas City and Oakland).

Exact Division Rank Predicted: Twelve

Playoff Teams Predicted Correctly: Five

Wildcard Playoffs

San Francisco over Seattle – San Fran didn’t make it and Seattle beat Washington decisively in round one.

Dallas over Philadelphia – Philly didn’t make it and Dallas had a first round bye.

New England over Cincinnati – Cincy stayed home and the Pats had a bye.

Indianapolis over Denver – Denver stayed home and Indy had a bye.

Divisional Playoffs

Dallas over Chicago – Chicago … losers. Dallas also earned that title in the Divisional round by losing to the Giants.

San Francisco over New Orleans – umm … yeah …

New England over Baltimore – New England DID win here, but they took out the Jaguars instead (so much for “Anonymous” saying that neither of my Super Bowl teams would win a playoff game … biatch #2).

San Diego over Indianapolis – So I wrote it … so it happened.

Conference Finals

San Francisco over Dallas – Yeah … “Anonymous” can gloat over this one … San Fran was a wasted pick by yours truly, but I did have the balls to take a chance.

New England over San Diego – Again … so I wrote it … so it happened.

Super Bowl

New England over San Francisco – friggin’ Eli.

Once more ... Just for Chris :-)

2008 NFL Draft: Final Review

The 2008 NFL Draft is over. There were some highs and lows, as with any draft. However, the theme that I would give this draft is the "Draft for Need" strategy. There weren't as many Best Player Available (BPA) picks as with past drafts. The "Draft for Need" strategy is exactly why we saw a run on offensive linemen in the first round as teams began to panic. Overall, while most teams helped themselves, we saw some add as many as 4 potential starters to their teams.

Everyone had Glenn Dorsey as the obvious steal of the top 5, but who else might be a regular name that was all but stolen in this year's selection show?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Top 5 Drafts

1) Kansas City Chiefs: They went 6 deep with players that could offer the team help immediately. Glenn Dorsey fell in their laps, and instead of kicking back and basking in the sunlight of their fortune, they Chiefs went to work. Trading up for Branden Albert was huge, after he dropped further than his hype would have led some to believe. Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr have potential to get some significant playing time on this team as backup corners. Jamaal Charles will replace another Texas back (Holmes) as Larry Johnson's backup. Brad Cottam is a sleeper who could end up turning some heads, and he will learn behind one of the greatest TEs of all time in Gonzo.

2) Dallas Cowboys: Jerrah Jones puts some nice drafts together. He didn't let down this year. Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins will fill big roles with that team and could eventually be stars. However, my favorite picks for them were Martellus Bennett and Orlando Scandrick. Bennett, in my opinion was the best talent at TE in the draft, just based on his upside and similar ability to Antonio Gates. Scandrick was a 3rd round projection for me, but was stolen in the 5th round. Tashard Choice was an interesting pick with Felix Jones already onboard. However, Choice could be a nice steal in a couple of years too.

3) Washington Redskins: No, this is not a homer pick (Editor's Note: This is such a homer pick. Who passes on a defensive lineman with three picks in the top 51). The Redskins actually had a draft this year. Furthermore, they trade they made with the Falcons while still landing the top ranked WR on my list. Devin Thomas, Fred Davis and Malcolm Kelly could all help the team this season. The Danny stocked the shelves for his new head coach and his West Coast Offense. Chad Rinehardt was one of my sleeper picks who has vast potential at guard, while he could back up four positions for this team once he works on some mechanics. Justin Tryon and Kareem Moore could help out more than expected on a secondary that is short on bodies. Tryon may be small, but has the athletic ability and attitude to make a difference. Moore is a playmaker. They also added the top punter in the draft.

4) Carolina Panthers: Regardless of the first rounder that they miss out on next year, drafting Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah in the first round helps the teams at two positions where they needed the most help. They got what I felt were two Day One players on Day Two in Charles Godfrey and Dan Connor. All four players could earn significant playing time as rookies. Tight end Gary Barnidge could be a sleeper.

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Though lacking many pressing needs, the Buccaneers addressed them with value. First, they selected oft-criticized CB Aqib Talib, who can be plugged into the starting lineup to fill the void left by Brian Kelly who jettisoned for Detroit. Knowing that at least eight games per year are played in sweltering heat, the Bucs latched onto the speedy Dexter Jackson out of App State. Before you know it, OG Jeremy Zuttah and DT Dre Moore may be starters on the respective lines, while Josh Johnson has plenty of upside at QB.

If you were the GM/Owner of the Cowboys, might you have tabbed Mendenhall over Jones?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Worst 5 Drafts

1) Tennessee Titans: Ouch. For the third straight year, the Titans selected a running back in the first two rounds of the draft. Not to mention, Chris Johnson was on no one's radar as a 1st-round draft pick before the combine. If that's not a red flag, then I would like to know what is. Defensive end Jason Jones and WR Lavelle Hawkins may very well be the keys to any value being reaped out of this draft for Tennessee.

2) New York Jets: Sorry, Clement. Despite the Gholston pick not being as debilitating (yet) as some pundits have put it, the Jets did not have an effective draft. Simply stated, trading up to select Dustin Keller (hello, 2nd-round grade AT BEST) is appalling. At the 30th pick, the Jets could have addressed a need at WR. Meanwhile, they waited until the pick #171 to do that.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars: If Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves do not produce in the next two years, there will be an overhaul in management. It's that obvious. While I laud the Jags aggressive player target approach, they gave up too many draft picks and did not address other needs. Rumors are abound that they are trying to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. If they do, it will be with 2009 draft picks.

4) Cincinnati Bengals: Who doesn't take a 1st-round pick and a conditional 3rd-round pick for Chad Johnson? Apparently, the Bengals don't. After the no-brainer Keith Rivers pick at #9, the Bengals went with WRs in the next two rounds. Though Anthony Collins and Pat Sims could start at some point, I look at these selections and ask myself, "Did this team get tougher?" The short answer is no.

5) Atlanta Falcons: This was a top choice, because I thought some of the late-round selections merited praise. Nevertheless, the Falcons passed up a stud defensive tackle in Glenn Dorsey, and for that, they will suffer. Later in the first round, the Falcons did a rare thing and made Vinny Cerrato look good, jumping up 13 spots to reach for Sam Baker. Though Curtis Lofton and Harry Douglas could push for starting positions immediately, the Falcons remain thin and weak on the D-Line.

Is it just Clement, or would Gholston be considered the "prize" of the draft Jerod Mayo suddenly became if the all-too-brilliant-and-perfect Patriots drafted him?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports (and a bitter Jets fan tired of the post-draft HATE)

Steals

1) Glenn Dorsey and Branden Albert, Kansas City Chiefs: Are you kidding me? The only thing I see that can hurt Dorsey's value is the effect that lengthy contract negotiations will have on his psyche. I added Albert because many had him going in the top 10.

2) Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh Steelers: Todd McShay rated him with a first-round grade. If he is able to stay healthy, Sweed immediately becomes a deep threat for the Steelers and could work his way into becoming a long-term replacement for Hines Ward.

3) Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs: According to the game tape, Flowers has amazing technique, physicality and ball skills. Strike the 40-time and his smaller build, and you have a top 11 pick.

4) Dan Connor, Carolina Panthers: Expected to be selected by the middle of the second round, Connor fell to the 74th pick overall. With Connor, the Panthers acquire tough, intelligent and grounded linebacker who can contribute immediately.

5) Quentin Demps, Philadelphia Eagles: Taken in the 4th round, Demps is a ball-hawking safety who had 17 interceptions as a three-year starter at UTEP. Demps needs to get stronger, but can compete with Sean Considine and Quentin Mikell for the starting safety spot opposite Brian Dawkins.

Reaches

1) Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans: 24th pick? I'm just not convinced that Johnson is a three-down back. Unless he's the second coming of Thurman Thomas or Barry Sanders, which he is neither, he's a late second-round pick at best.

2) Dustin Keller, New York Jets: No chance. No way. No how. Keller will need to put up Gonzo's career numbers to validate trading up and selecting a tight end in the first round in this draft.

3) Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: Is it just me or were the Panthers begging for the next Stephen Davis with this pick?

4) Duane Brown, Houston Texans: Brown (Richmond-native) could be great. We just don't know yet. He's a project lineman with minimal experience. Translation: The Texans should've traded down again.

5) Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams: Addictions are dangerous. An addiction to speedy receivers may be kryptonite for a team that has been a perennial Charmin Award nominee.

There's one primetime star who wasn't dealt on draft day.
We have to ask. Who has a more inflated ego: Jason Taylor or the Tuna?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

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