NFL SWOT Analysis: NFC East

The NFL is heating up. Training camps have either started already or are starting over the next week. Once again we're back with the Team-by-Team SWOT Analyses. We're taking a close look at the upsides and downsides of each team, and what they look like going into training camp. Check back every couple of days as a new division will be posted. As always, looking forward to the comments.


Dallas Cowboys

Strengths – Many teams would love to have a tandem of backs like Marion Barber and Felix Jones. If Jones is 100%, expect an even split on carries, allowing Barber to step back into a role he dominated in when splitting carries with another Jones. The QB’s best friend is a great TE. The Cowboys have arguably the best in the league with Jason Witten. However, don’t sleep on Martellus Bennett. If D-Coordinators think they can put a LB on him, expect some nasty exploitation. Together, they will cause mismatches that will move the chains. The Defensive Front Seven, led by DeMarcus Ware and Jay Ratliff, is one of the best in the league.

Weaknesses – Was losing T.O. addition by subtraction? Roy Williams will have some big shoes to fill. Outside of the TEs, he doesn’t have much help. The secondary will need all the help they can get from the front seven. Mike Jenkins steps in as a full-time starter. Team him up with Terence Newman, and you have two CBs who don’t like to make tackles. Gerald Sensabaugh should not have a hard time making the team forget about the other Roy Williams at safety. But, if he does, it’ll be a long year for the Dallas D.

Opportunities – As a team, the Cowboys need to use last year’s debacle to fuel their fire for this season. They cannot be an embarrassment again. At the nickel corner, Orlando Scandrick has the kind of physical build and game that the team desperately needs. If he can prove himself during training camp and the preseason, we could see the 2008 fifth rounder a lot.

Threats – Can Jerrah Jones stick with Wade Phillips throughout the season if the team hits some bumps? While I’m not a fan of Phillips, replacing him mid-season would be disastrous to this team, regardless of Jason Garrett’s presence. This is also the toughest division in the league (until another division proves otherwise). For the Cowboys to succeed, they must best the Giants and Eagles, who are the class of this division at this point in time.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Anthony Spencer, from Greg Ellis. Spencer has the type of pass rushing skills to make Dallas fans forget about Ellis. Spencer could have Shaun Phillips-like production because of the luxury of who he has as a bookend.

Position Battle – WR: Patrick Crayton, Miles Austin, Isaiah Stanback. At least one of these three has to step up and be as good as Jerrah claims they are. Once that happens, the Cowboys could be tough to stop on offense.

Rookie Contributor – Not likely to be any. I did like Robert Brewster. He might have had the best chance in the preseason, to show that he’s going to be the eventual replacement for Hotel Adams. But, this morning I got news that he's out for the season. I guess most of the rookie contribution will have to come from all four drafted LBs. They need to show that they can spell the starting four. A deep set of LBs is the strength of any 3-4 defense.



New York Giants

Strengths – This team lived and died by Eli Manning’s arm for the last few years. With the receiving corps taking a new shape, the running game becomes an even bigger focus than last year. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will pick up most of the slack left by Derrick Ward. This job is always made easier by one of the best functioning offensive lines in the league.

Weaknesses – It is very easy to point out the receiving corps. Losing Plaxico is huge. A pistol-packing, self-shooting individual off the field, he was heavy artillery on it. On the other side of the ball, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that their defense is a weakness. While there is some talent, Steve Spagnuolo is gone.

Opportunities – This is Eli’s chance to prove how good a QB he is if he can produce with what looks like a mediocre set of WRs (on paper, that is). Kevin Boss should end up with a bigger role in the passing game. He has a lot to prove.

Threats – The D-Line will be tested early this season. They are a smallish group flanked by a linebacking crew that isn’t impressive outside of Antonio Pierce (Boley will miss nearly half of the season due to injury). A power running team could have a field day.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Bill Shridan from Spags. Will Sheridan keep the same defensive philosophy intact, or will he add his own signature? Either way, will he be able to hold this defense together as masterfully as Spags did.

Position Battle – DT: While newcomers Chris Canty and Rocky Bernard are penciled in as the starters, holdovers Fred Robbins and Barry Coefield won’t give up their spots without a fight. This is also the formula for a strong DT rotation.

Rookie Contributor – Potentially a few with such a strong draft. Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden are big receivers that this team lacks without Plaxico around. Clint Sintim could fill in for Michael Boley early.



Philadelphia Eagles

Strengths – McNabb is this team’s MVP. Last year’s benching was a fluke, and Reid knows (whether he likes it or not), this team goes where McNabb takes them. They arguably have the best WRs in the division and arguably the best McNabb has had since joining the team. This is the QB that took his team to several NFC Championships with James Thrash, Todd Pinkston and LJ Smith as his targets. The defensive line and linebackers may be one of the more underrated in the league. The DTs started getting some love last year, but LBs like Stewart Bradley and Chris Gocong could be the next breakout players.

Weaknesses – How do you recover from losing Brian Dawkins and Jim Johnson? These were the on and off field leaders of this defensive team. Team Quintin at safety (Mikell and Demps) leave a lot to be desired. Mikell is one-dimensional, in the form of Roy Williams. His strength is to stop the run, but he leaves something to be desired in pass coverage (which is why Sean Jones is around), and Demps is stepping into some HUGE shoes.

Opportunities – On paper, the Eagles are the talent of the division. However, any football fan should know that it means nothing until you produce on the field. Look for Andy Reid and the coaching staff to tap into that potential and maybe land back in the NFC Championship. Brent Celek has an opportunity to show if he is the TE that caught 12 balls in one game, or if he’s a one game wonder.

Threats – Biggest question of the year: Can Westbrook stay healthy? The offensive line has question marks as well. You have Jason Peters coming off a season where he gave up a rack of sacks. Stacy and Shawn Andrews will flip-flop from the positions they played last year. It also doesn’t help that Jamaal Jackson never lived up to his hype when he signed his deal, and should get a push from Nick Cole. While Peters and the Andrews brothers are great linemen, can the line gel as a whole this season? Could McNabb be running for his life again (much like some of his most frustrating years)?

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Demps from Dawkins. Taking over for a legend, will Demps be Steve Young or Quincy Carter? Can the Eagles fans go easy on him early? I guess the other question is, could Sean Jones swing over as the deep safety and take the spot from Demps?

Position Battle – RB: LeSean McCoy and Lorenzo Booker. Who will have the opportunity to be Brian Westbrook’s #1 caddy?

Rookie Contributors – Jeremy Maclin as a returner and a home run threat. LeSean McCoy as a potential RB2. Clint Ingram, if Celek turns out to be a one game wonder.



Washington Redskins

Strengths – There are not many to speak of on offense other than Chris Cooley. On the other side of the ball, they strengthened their DTs with the addition of the $100 Million Dollar Man, Albert Haynesworth. The linebackers, led by tackling machine, London Fletcher, look good. Rocky McIntosh proved to be a student of the game last season and broke out.

Weaknesses – The WRs are either too short for the offensive scheme, or they are unproven. The offensive line, even with the addition of Derrick Dockery, is in need of an overhaul. However, the biggest issue for this team last season was the instability in the play calling. The team dominated the first half of the season as a power running team. However, they turned into a pass-happy team in the second half and stunk things up.

Opportunities – Jason Campbell’s stage has been set. He’s finally going into his 2nd year in the same offense (a feat unrealized since high school), and he’s got a boulder on his shoulder (forget a chip). Outside of the upgrades, the rest of the starting roster stayed intact. This team has the makings of a surprise waiting to happen.

Threats – This is the downside of the Jason Campbell situation. He could end up folding under the pressure (like a lawn-chair) and the consequences will be heavy. This is also an old team that somehow lacks stability. They will beat a great team one week, and give a winless team their first win the next week. If that roller coaster starts hitting it’s peaks and valleys early, it’s going to be a long season.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Many passers. Few takers. This may be Snyderrato’s last shot at doing anything before the inevitable dismantling and re-building.

Position Battle – WR3: Roydell Williams, Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly. It’s too bad they’re not vying for the WR2 spot, as Antwaan Randle El would probably make a better WR3 than he does a WR2.

Rookie Contributor – Bryan Orakpo will play the hybrid LB/DE role. He will play LB on running downs and DE on obvious passing downs.

So it's come to this...NFC-Style

In case you've been hiding under a collapsed brick wall today...NFL seedings are set.

Let's get a few things straight...

This is the guy - for me, at least - who will have the most to do with who ends up representing the NFC in the Super Bowl this season.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

NFC

..."The Guys You DREAM about Being"...
#1. (12-4) New York Giants
Comment: Despite the Plaxico-incident, Jacobs missing two weeks/being banged up for a month, and the difficult task of defending a championship...the G-Men remain the team to beat in the NFC as the #1-seed.
Guy to Watch: Brandon Jacobs. Eli is the epicenter of this team; however, this season - unlike last year's playoff team - hinged on the ability of their monster back to brutalize defenses in the first half. 3 more dominant efforts and they may very well again hoist the Lombardy Trophy.

#2. (12-4) Carolina Panthers
Comment: 12-4 is a lot easier when you're undefeated (8-0) at home, which is exactly where the Panthers will be in the Divisional Round in two weeks. Plenty of rest for DeAngelo Williams (1515 yards and 20 total TDs) and company.
Guy to Watch: Steve Smith has more ability than any receiver his size. In fact, it's not even close. He's got to have his head straight and his legs ready to burst through secondaries throughout January. He'll need to carry this team - even more than Williams/Stewart - late in close playoff (potential shootout) games.

..The Guys Everyone Else WISHES to Be"...
#3. (10-6) Minnesota Vikings
Comment: Don't forget what Gus Frerrote did for this team; however, Tavaris Jackson did just enough to lock up the NFC North and a home playoff game for the Vikes. The health of Pat Williams and their psyche against a dangerous Philadelphia team loom ominous. By the way, welcome to the NFL Playoffs Adrian Peterson.
Guy to Watch: Tavaris and A-Pete are the easy gets. I'm watching to see if Bernard Berrian can continue his recent torrid month and prove the contract was well worth it. His speed dramatically changes games downfield.

#4. (9-7) Arizona Cardinals
Comment: As ugly a 9-7 team you've ever seen, they still won their division for the first time since Kennedy was in the Whire House AND will host an actual playoff game.
Guy to Watch: Darnell Dockett is the only defender - outside possibly Wilson/Rolle - who defenses gameplan against. Michael Turner can't be allowed to easily pass through the guard and tackle spots or this game will be well over before the first half ends.

#5. (11-5) Atlanta Falcons
Comment: At the beginning of the season (or even the mid-way point), if you had the Falcons at 11-5 and a favorite in their opening playoff game...you need to hit up Cesar's Palace immediately. This team is playing with house money. Enjoy watching 'em.
Guy to Watch: John Abraham has shut it down in previous playoff games, going as far to not even suit up. He'll need to be all over Kurt Warner next weekend...or the Falcons won't leave Arizona victors.

#6. (9-6-1) Philadelphia Eagles
Comment: Somehow, the tie-game didn't come back to bite them. Meanwhile, Andy Reid and Donovan F. McNabb are playoff bound yet again. Don't look now Giant fans, but the Iggles might be coming to town in two weeks. Look out.
Guy to Watch: We all know how Brian Westbrook makes this team go. I got it. Instead, I'm taking two. Correll Buckhalter showed Dallas what a "change of pace" nightmare he can be; especially in the passing game as of late. Meanwhile, A$$ante $amuel needs to earn a few more of those $$$ back A$AP.

"One of a Kind...for better or WORSE"
#7. (9-7) Dallas Cowboys
Comment: The biggest off-season train wreck resides in Dallas (sorry Favre & Jet haters). Not only is there the issue of Wade "The Babe" and Jason Garrett's futures, but you also get to deal with TO, the never-ending Romo-saga, and the same December questions that continue to plague this franchise. 1996 was their last playoff win. Man, that seems so long ago...
Guy to Watch: TO. Of course.

..."The Others"...
#8. (9-7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Comment: John Gruden, Jeff Garcia, and the entire organization should be ashamed for losing at home to the Oakland Raiders. Half this roster is out the door and Monte Kiffin is leading the way. One word: regression.
Guy to Watch: The next QB added to this "rotation". Good luck.

#9. (9-7) Chicago Bears
Comment: Kyle Orton may be the future of this franchise at QB; however, the only "skill players" worth feeling confident are Matt Forte and (probably) Greg Olsen. This team needs to unearth a playmaker or two in the upcoming draft, somehow and someway.
Guy to Watch: Is it me or was Brian Urlacher missing this season?

#10. (8-8) Washington Redskins
Comment: Starting 6-2 becomes null and void when you finish 2-6. The real question becomes: is Jason Campbell the QB of the future? You better find out real soon, Mr. Snyder.
Guy to Watch: How soon can Jason Taylor exit the Redskin roster?

#11. (8-8) New Orleans Saints
Comment: Picking up also-rans (McKenzie, Fujita, Vilma, Shockey) isn't working. Meanwhile, what is going on with the RB position - even without Deuce in the mix after this year - and when will this defense be able to stop a JV offense, no less an NFL-one.
Guy to Watch: Is the Jeremy Shockey-experience over already?

..."The Other Others"...
#12. (7-9) San Francisco 49ers
Comment: Mike Singletary put this team on his back and they went 7-9. Kudos. But I gotta ask: what happens when they no longer "sneak up on people", is Shaun Hill their future QB, can Frank Gore stay healthy, and is Mike Martz still have any "genius" left in him?
Guy to Watch: In case you couldn't tell, I'm wondering where Shaun Hill is on the depth chart before Week 1 next season?

#13. (6-10) Green Bay Packers
Comment: Backward steps to say the least. BIG ONES. Rogers seems fine; however, this team too easily slipped to 6-10. What is to be done for a team that likely overachieved in '07 to reach 3-13, yet drastically underproduced its way to double-digit losses in '08?
Guy to Watch: Was giving all that money to Ryan Grant a big mistake?

..."How the 'Mighty' Have Fallen..."
#14. (4-12) Seattle Seahawks
Comment: The team got injured and old all in the same season. Dangerous duo in all the wrong ways. By the way, how stupid does that Deion Branch-deal continue to look???
Guy to Watch: By the way, how much longer is Matt Hasselbeck going to be able to stand up right for more than 10 games in a season, new head coach Jim Mora Jr? What if he can't any longer?

...And then there's "THEM"...
#15. (2-14) St. Louis Rams
Comment: Players L-O-V-E "player-friendly coaches" like Jim Haslett. Duh. But how much do players love losing their last 10 games in a season and appearing to have little to nothing in the pipeline for the future (sorry, Chris Long)?
Guy to Watch: Is Tory Holt much longer for St. Louis?

..."0-16 says it ALL"...
#16. (0-16) Detroit Lions
Comment: I made a real mistake last season thinking the Falcons (post-Vick) were the ugliest situation in football. Motown is in mourning over their "football" franchise. 0-16 shouldn't be wished upon any players or fans. Not even those surviving the post-Millen "Era of Shame" in Detroit.
Guy to Watch: Whichever future #1 overall pick (likely a QB) gets his career ruined next by this franchise. Beware Sam Bradford and Matthew Stafford.

I thought I'd hand out some hardware, but I'll save that for later.
AFC coming soon...

Tuesday FourCast: Week 14

Not much of an intro to this week's FourCast. But I must point out that I really, really had to fight the urge of my childish mentality (equivalent to that of an 11-year old boy) which wanted me to post the video clip of Visanthe's "Shiancoe." I mean, to post a link to the obvious flub by Fox would be unprofessional and immature. Seriously, we here at PHSports consider ourselves a legitimate media outlet and would never even consider linking to a video clip at the expense of the Minnesota Tight End and his "Viking." Never.

1. Long Schaub Silver's
Matt Schaub was once regarded as a diamond in the rough. NFL scouts and analysts thought he was the second coming of Joe Montana or Johnny Unitas. Hell, Schaub received enough praise to make Beano Cook's love of Ron Powlus look like a schoolgirl crush. Of course, this was before Schaub had ever taken a meaningful regular season snap. Now that Matty has played nearly two seasons (19 games) as the Houston Texans starting QB, he has thrown for only 3 more TDs than INTs (21 to 18), and has a QB rating of somewhere in the viscinity of 89.6. Not terrible numbers ... but nothing that would lead you to believe that he'd win more Heismans than Powlus. That leads us to Sunday's game against the Packers. The Pack's defense is not a group of pushovers, especially not the secondary. Yet Schaub managed to pick that unit apart for 414 yards and 2 TDs, including a 58-yarder to Kevin Walter (chicks dig the long ball). If that's the Schaub that the NFL was clamoring about, then the Texans have a shot at a bright future. But for now, he's just as consistent as Kordell Stewart.

2. "Do women (or the Bills) know about Shrinkage?"
4-10 since 1994. 2-7 all-time in games after December 1. Those are various win-loss records of the Miami Dolphins in Buffalo. Obviously the Fins don't like cold weather. So Sunday's game at Buffalo should've provided the Bills a chance at recovering from their current slump. Even with J.P. Los"er"man starting in place of the injured Trent Edwards, that frigid upstate New York weather was going to paralyze Miami. Problem: the game wasn't in Buffalo. Huh? Ralph "A penny saved is a penny earned" Wilson was so s-m-r-t as to give away the edge the weather gave his team over a warm weather franchise and have the game played indoors?
Evidently, the Wilson's bank account isn't the only place where he needs help. Sure, I get the idea of testing out a new market for your team. Especially one that has a larger population and higher tv-viewership than Buffalo. But why not move the game against New England there? Or the Jets? Why let the "warm fuzzies" known as the Dolphins play in a stadium that's protected from the ball-freezing weather in Buffalo in December? It makes no sense. Sorry Buffalo fans, but this decision by your team's ownership was "wide right."

3. Is That a Concealed Handgun in Plaxico's Pocket? Or Are You Just Happy to See Me?
Back in the pre-season, I declared that the New York Giants didn't need lots of talent at wide receiver. That statement was prompted by the Giants performance during the all-important third week of the pre-season in which Eli Manning completed seven passes to five different receivers, none of whom was named Plaxico or Amani. Last week, against the Redskins, my observation appeared to be accurate. Eli threw for 305 yards, completing 21 passes to six different receivers, all with Plaxico out due to his inability to control his piece. But this past Sunday, against the Eagles, it seemed the Giants receivered not named Burress weren't up to the task. Domenick Hixon (the same guy who caught two TDs in the aforementioned pre-season game) dropped a beautiful lob from Manning that was a surefire TD. The drops were all over the place as the receiving crew did all they could to try and prove me wrong. Unfortunately, I'm stubborn (yes, I'm hard headed) and refuse to admit that I'm wrong quite yet. I still say that Manning doesn't need Burress or an exceptional WR to make plays happen. Last week was the exception ... week 13 against the Redskins was the rule.

4. Which NFC Division Has the Stroke?
A month or so into the season, many were declaring the NFC East as the best division in football. None of the four teams had a losing record, and the only losses for any of the teams had occured within the division. Fourteen weeks into the season and still all four teams are above .500. But the same holds true for the NFC South. After the slobber-knocker between Tampa and Carolina last night, the NFC South has a combined record of 34-18 (.654). The NFC East stands firm at 33-18-1 (.644). Outside of their respective division games, the East is 24-9-1 (.721) and the South is 24-8 (.750). The difference between the two divisions is like splitting hairs. In two weeks the current division leaders will meet as the Giants (11-2) will face the Panthers (10-3) in a game that will determine the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Not to take away from the NFC East's achievements thus far, because the combined win-loss record of those four teams is truly stellar. But, perhaps, self-proclaimed sports-gurus were a bit too quick to "crown their ass."

Tuesday FourCast: Week 6

Paymon called it last week with his code orange games. Things definitely went awry, especially for one division. We saw some mighty teams fall in what should have been easy matchups. And with that, we start the mid-section of the season.


#1. Take That Vegas

At one point last week, the Redskins were 14.5 point favorites over the Rams. Let's not forget, this is the NFL, which means "No Funds League" if you use Vegas odds when betting on games. Coming off big wins against the Cowboys and Eagles on the road, the Redskins lay an egg at home against the hapless Rams. Being a long time fan of the Skins, I can tell you that this is normal. I told people in my office last week that this is a game the Skins always lose and had several of them remind me on Monday about that revelation. A few things I take away from this game. Josh Brown is one of the best free agent acquisitions the Rams have had for a while. The Redskins came down to earth as soon as they had a few turnovers. Vinny Cerrato should publicly apologize for forcing the team to keep Durant Brooks as their punter, since he wasted a draft pick on Brooks. Offensive linemen should bat down passes instead of thinking they are Jerry Rice. And, Richie Incognito should be a professional wrestler and not in the NFL.


#2. Gun-Slinging (Sorta) in the Wild West

How important is special teams play to a football team? Just ask the Cardinals who pulled a minor shocker at home against the Dallas Cowboys. There is no need to look further than the Cardinals' opening play and their closing play of the game. J.J. Arrington started things off with the proverbial punch in the nose, with a 93-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. Later, Sean Morey and Monty Beisel combined to block a punt and claim the ball in the end zone for a TD in overtime to seal the victory. These two plays served as the end-caps for a game overstocked with turnovers and ugly play. Another observation I had refers to what T.O. cried about in a previous press conference. He wanted the damn ball. But, in three of the last four games, he has 8 catches for 120 yards and 1 TD. Marion Barber had 11 for 128 and a TD in this game alone. Note to T.O.: Get open, and you'll get the damn ball...and cozy up to Brad Johnson too.


#3. Is LT Finally Going to Shut Up???

I could see it before the game even started. A pouty LaDainian Tomlinson boo-hooing over a loss to the Patriots, claiming, "They cheated!!! Belichick is a bad bad person!!!" (Queue crying baby sound effect). It was nice seeing them pound the Brady-less Patriots like a team that's missing their All-Pro QB. Ok, that sounded redundant, but I'm sure you all know what I mean. Phillip Rivers got his groove on throwing to his over-sized receivers. The smaller Patriot DBs showed their weakness. Matt Cassel showed us why he's never been a starting QB. I think this is just further proof that since Tom Brady went down, the AFC is anybody's game.


#4. The New York Football...Midgets???

Not quite, but what are we to think? Did the Browns come to life, or did the Giants finally come back to earth? Derek Anderson spent the last few weeks barely holding Brady Quinn off from the starting QB job. Last night, Anderson restated his case as the outright starter in Cleveland. Eli Manning threw three picks (one of them a Pick-Six) to a set of Browns DBs that the average fan couldn't name a single member. Amazingly, sans the "Soulja", the Browns looked a lot like the team that went 10-6 last season. Braylon Edwards shook off some of that dust to give Anderson a hand, and once again looked like he's the next big thing at WR. Furthermore, the Giants lost their first road game since week 1 last season. If I was to point out a trend for this week, it's that three quarters of the NFC East needs to pick themselves up after some shocking losses and once again prove that they are the best division in the league.

Our Thoughts: Does Plax's Suspension Shift the Balance of Power in the NFC East?

Sum: No, it doesn't. As I discussed in my Pre-Season Faux-Cast, Eli can do just fine without "talent" at the wide-receiver position, plus the Giants have lots of depth there. In the second preseason game (Cleveland), Eli completed 4 of 7 pass attempts, and none of the recipients were named Plaxico, Amani or Steve Smith. In fact, in that game, none of those three "starters" even caught a pass, and that was one of the two all-important weeks of the pre-season. So, I think the Giants will be fine for the ONE game they're Plax-less. Sure, Plax and Eli have the "connection" down pat, but Eli is a team leader now, and he can lead his team without Burress. Now, if this were last season prior to Shockey's injury, or anytime before, my answer would be much different. The balance of power in the NFC East still has Cowboys-Eagles-Giants at the top with the Redskins a semi-distant second. At least for now.

Armin: Not so much, in my opinion. Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC (B)East. Washington is going to finish last. The battle will be between the Eagles and Giants. However, before Plaxico was suspended, it was not too hard...not TOO hard...for me to say that Philly was playing like the better team. We also saw Steve Smith step it up a little lately, and he looks like he could be a weapon. Toomer is usually "Old Faithful" on 3rd downs. If Eli can create an even better connection with Kevin Boss, the Giants should be ok. I guess the big question is: Will Plax become a problem?

Clement: Determining the 'Balance of Power' in the NFC East won't occur until a few more weeks. Anything before that is speculation supported with speculation. The real key in the coming weeks is which NFC East team can win a game on the road (memo to Zorn and the Skins). It's fun to call Dallas "October's Team", but everybody for years had the same issues (and made excuses) for Peyton and the Colts. It's Romo's third season and the team's defense is still gelling with new additions all over the field (Thomas, Jones, Jenkins, etc.) In reality, New York suspended Burress for far more than missing a practice during a bye week. He just earned a FAT contract and isn't representing the team well with recent reports of potentially missing several meetings and possible potential domestic disturbance issues. Washington isn't allocated for last place, not yet. Every team still needs to answer several questions before we can analyze who is who. Dallas seems at the top right now; however, the Giants are an incredible road team and that isn't something I'm willing to pass up. Eli will have a lot of work to do without Plax for a week, obviously. What I'm really interested in is how the Giants balance their platoon of 3 backs. It doesn't take a fantasy owner to realize that Brandon Jacobs needs more than 12-15 carries a game to impose his size, strength, and will on an opposing defense.

Paymon: In a word, YES, it most certainly does. At a maximum, only three NFC East will make it to the playoffs. In reality, some weaker team will rise from the scrap-heap to claim the second wild card slot. The season is not decided in September, but Dallas certainly has the look of the best September to December team in the NFL, let alone their conference and division. As noted, Philadelphia and New York were in a dead heat for second billing with most giving the Eagles a slight edge. Washington, who was expected to be the doormat of this division, have reeled off two straight wins, albeit at home, against decent competition and Jason Campbell looks worthy of being an NFL quarterback. You can think of this as a one-game suspension. You can also think of this as a potential chemistry killer. Chemistry - the very reason that the Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions. Though the Giants are off to a 3-0 start, their competition is a combined 2-7, and they had to eek out an overtime home victory against the winless Bengals. Long story short, the margin for error is too little for chemistry issues in addition to the existing set of personnel losses. Plax's ego minus his production is too big a loss, because I do not think he will let it go (even though he is likely at full fault for whatever it is that he did) after he returns to work two weeks from now. Also, his presence allows for players like Toomer to dominate on 3rd down and Smith to roam the field out of the slot.

NFL Picks & Prognostications...Week 4

This is how we do it…

NFL Picks: 6-7 [I really need to start picking some freebies.]
Upset Special: 1-3 [Well damn!]

San Francisco @ New Orleans(-5)
Is the J.T. O’Sullivan Project really worthy of a 3-1 start? Sure! However, I’m taking the desperate Saints to take the W, barely, despite a porous secondary and a complete inability to convert on 3rd and short late in the 4th quarter.

Minnesota @ Tennessee (-3)
Minnesota dug itself out of a hole with Frerrotte at the helms (like I said!) and they are rewarded with the NFL’s “worst” 3-0 team ever (at least according to the “experts”) in Tennessee. I’ll take Jeff Fisher over Brad Childress any day. Especially in Nashville. Beware of a monster day for APete though.

Washington @ Dallas(-11)
Landmark matchup in Week 4. Seriously. With neither of the teams in this STACKED division having lost outside of the division (Dallas & NY 3-0 as well), this game means a TON. Dallas must defend homefield and the Skins must continue spreading the ball out all over the field. Santana Moss loves eating up the Big D secondary. It’s gonna be nail-biter to the very end, but I’ll take the Boys for now.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5 1/2)
Who’d have thunk the Ravens would be 2-0 after three weeks? Nobody. Then again, nobody predicted their Week 2 matchup against Houston would’ve been postponed until Week 10. Funny thing is, they’d probably be 3-0 if they’d gotten to play that game. Nevertheless, the Ravens can go 3-0 in division with a road win here. Despite a banged up Big Ben, I’m taking the Stillers to cruise. Rashard Mendenhall looks awful by the way.

Upset Special
Green Bay @ Tampa Bay (-1)
Battle of the Bays sans-Sapp and Favre now. Oh well. Tampa is again a sneaky team at 2-1 and Green Bay looks to shake off the Sunday night loss to Big D at Lambeau. The Pack travel well as of late (most 13-3 teams do) and I see no reason they can’t contain Griese, Graham, and company Sunday afternoon.

3 Must Starts and Must Sits

START

…Last Week…
Justin Gage didn’t play (thanks!), Ike Bruce thankfully added a TD to his crummy 19 yards, and Darren Sproles wasn’t a factor (maybe the only Charger who wasn't too).

…This Week…
Ike Hillard will further frustrate Galloway owners as the TD-catching Buc, Patrick Crayton has to a catch a TD (seriously), and Kerry Collins will toss two TDs against the Vikes this weekend.

SIT

…Last Week…
Mark Clayton wasn’t a factor at any point, DeSean Jackson had nowhere to go but down, and LJ owners breathed a sigh of relief (at least for one week) with a rock solid second-half performance.

…This Week…
DeSean Jackson needs to be traded now while his value is at its highest, Willis McGahee is too frustrating to even hover around a starting lineup these days, and Brian Griese won’t get half of 400 yards against a brutal Pack secondary.

…yes I realize the irony of choosing a Buc wideout and not its starting QB…

Enjoy your NFL and fantasy weekends.
I know I won’t!

Until next picks and prognostications…

Our Thoughts on Last Night's Game

Armin: Was that a tribute to Joe Gibbs? It was as if they completely abandoned the West Coast Offense in the first half, and ran the Gibbs offense. Not quite the same effect as the Missing Man Formation tribute to Sean Taylor. The Redskins didn't officially start their "Jim Zorn Era" (and foray into the WCO) until the 2nd half of the game. Watching Coach Janky Spanky (a.k.a. Clinton Portis) giving a lesson in coaching to head coach Jim Zorn on the sidelines was embarrassing. The Redskins defense dropped several easy interceptions, which Redskins fans have become accustomed to outside of Sean Taylor over the last five seasons. Jason Campbell's alternate reality has him thinking he has 10+ seconds in the pocket to make his reads. However, as bad as the Redskins played, it was only a nine-point game. Should the Giants be concerned?

Sum: That was the Redskins' 6th preseason game, and it's why I thought they should've risked injury and played their starters the entire game against Jacksonville. We've known that the Skins running game would be kept the same, but that the passing game would go Zorn-style, and what we saw last night was them still working the kinks out of that merger. To disagree with Armin, I think that Zorn listens to his team leaders, like Portis, is amazing. Here, the coach allows his star athlete, who has experienced what's going on out on the field, to report back and to give his suggestions on the adjustments they can make. It's the perfect use of consultation in the middle of a game. The Giants looked great on that first drive, but that they only put up 16 points is quite pathetic. The score in this one should've been 24-7, at least. As for my assessment that the new starters on the D-Line would struggle, well, I stunk that one up real good.

Clement: Let's drop any excuses, could-haves, should-haves, or obsolete vernacular. Instead, let's remember that this is Week 1 in the NFL. The Giants are paper thin on the defense; nevertheless, Justin Tuck will be a Pro Bowler and the rookie safety Phillips showed flashes of brilliance all over the field. Eli should've had 3-4 picks; however, several of those Skins DBs were as ill-prepared for the ball to hit their hands as the Giants wideouts were. The Giants were EXTREMELY wise to pay Plax and wiser to not underutilize Jacobs (even with Ward & Bradshaw being talented). The Giants O-Line may be the most underrated unit in the NFL. The Skins looked sloppy and that had to be expected. Jason Campbell has his 7th offensive system in 8 years and DOESN'T have the moxy/poise (yet) to be an above-average NFL QB. Santana Moss/Randle-El are obsolete options and not effectively using Cooley is a MAJOR mistake (the rookie wideouts SUCK too). The Skins are not a 6-10 team; however, they may struggle mightily if they don't start getting 3-4 game-breaking runs a week from CP. The rest of their offense is nowhere talented enough (anywhere) to put up consistent scoring numbers and get this team through a downright brutal division.

Paymon: After jumping out to a quick 16-0 lead, the Giants' offense went on autopilot. Seemingly a comfortable win the Giants, Tom Coughlin has more than enough game film to rip into his team prior to their trip to the Gateway City in Week 2. Pressure was average, tackling was average, catching was average. Special teams coverage and red zone execution after the first drive ... let's not go from there. That said, DBs and O-Linemen (and the decision to run at Jason Taylor) were solid. For the Skins, they had better get their offense in order, because the Saints and Cards can put up serious points. Jason Campbell was stoic in the pocket and nearly got his receivers' head taken off. While I feel for the discontinuity he's experienced, he is a veteran and gets paid to produce.

Fantasy Analysis: Player Spotlight – Clinton Portis

As the fantasy football season rapidly approaches, more and more people have finally sucked up their pride and dished out $7-8 for a fantasy football magazine (or six!).

In most of them you’ll find the typical garbage each is trying to sell you as “insider information”.

Buyer beware!!!

If you’re lucky, you’ll find a staff of writers (of whom you think you might have heard of one or two of them before) partaking in a mock draft and mentioning a few sleepers or busts.

Savvy analysis galore!!!

While we all dole out the bones for it, where are the individual player perspectives? Forget the lunacy of projecting player statistics over a season or even declaring one back “the next big thing” and another a “complete and utter bust”. That's a crapshoot at best. AT BEST!

How many mags can I get for this puppy?
Credit: Smoking Gun

Why not instead check out PHSports for savvy analysis with a PUNCH (and maybe a humorous clip from YouTube hidden in each post)???

Glad you decided to stick around...

Today’s focus is on a man entering his fifth (yes, fifth) season with the burgundy and gold…Clinton Portis...aka Southeast Jerome, Coach Janky Spanky, Bro Sweets, Choo-Cho, Sheriff Gonnagetcha, and Dolemite Jenkins.

Crazy personas and post-game hijinx aside, let’s take a look at what you might expect from the man who offered up this gem…

In defense of Michael Vick, Portis said, "I don't know if he was fighting dogs or not, but it's his property, it's his dog," Portis told WAVY-TV. "If that's what he wants to do, do it." He then added, "I think people should mind their business." He was then asked if dog-fighting is prevalent in the NFL, and Portis answered, "I mean it's prevalent in life... I'm from Laurel, Mississippi. I know a lot of back roads that got the dog fight if you want to go see it."

Likely slotted in most draft boards in the early-to-mid second round (give or take a half-dozen picks or so), plenty of people - from Skins haters to Portis doubters - may have a hard time selecting him as their team’s #1-back.

While I have been quite skeptical in season’s past of Southeast Jerome, let me cut out the numbers (sorry Stat Boys) and give you some cold hard facts as to why you SHOULD make a run, earlier than expected, at the former Hurricane.

Anyone home to this "jingle" has loved it from Day 1.

5 Reasons to DRAFT Clinton Portis:

1) Jim Zorn’s offense should be a lot more vertical than those of year’s past in DC. If the Skins are wise, they’ll use their incredible depth at the TE position to spread the middle of the field to open more lanes around the tackles for Portis to use his speed to cruise deep downfield.

Kid Bro Sweets will likely love what Zorn's offense brings to his number of touches.

Credit: BP3

2) Despite rushing right under 4.0 yds/carry last season, Portis plunged in for 11 rushing TDs last season (despite not breaking open too many big plays). Any time you have a back who can go for multiple rushing TDs (keep in mind he also caught a career-high 47 passes), you draft him without flinching

.

Choo-Cho is targeting a dozen rush TDs...at least!
Credit: Deadspin

3) Tabbed as the 11^th overall talent on Brandon Funston’s Yahoo! Fantasy Board, Portis had an, “impressive show of production, durability, and consistency (in 2007)”. In leagues dominated by backs, he’d be a potentially sick-nasty #2 RB to pile onto an already talented #1.

Dollah Bill a first-round pick? Believe it!!!

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

4) Free Range. Portis can do no wrong in the eyes of owner Daniel “Wonder Boy” Snyder. He got his way when Coach Gibbs was calling the shots, so how do you expect Jim Zorn to tell Clinton anything he doesn’t want? Portis seems more than willing to take himself in and out of games…when healthy, at least...whenever he sees fit.

I wonder who Dolemite Jenkins is voting for in November?
Credit: Redskins.com

5) Jason Campbell has been the talk of the national press – and to a lesser extent local press – out of Skins camp. Entering his third year as a starter, Campbell’s physical attributes are simply waiting for his playmaking and decision making skills to catch up.

Coach Janky Spanky is gonna do more than take a BITE outta crime!
Credit: Redskins.com

I’m sure I could peg out more than a dozen reasons, or hilarious pictures, describing and depicting why you should wait on drafting Portis too early and hope he slips a round or two below your pre-draft expectations.

However, I’ll leave that to my loyal readers.

All 8 of them.

Until next time…and next fantasy analysis.