InClement Weather: Weekend Bracket Banter

Been a while since we spoke, in fact it was Pay's 4-0 Thursday performance that left you wanting more.

Let's dive in head-first...

Get used to this smiling face. He may impact the Final Four as much as any player next season.
Credit: Streetball.com

Midwest Region

Louisville waxed Arizona 103-64. It didn't come as much of a surprise honestly. Right?
Arizona in 2009: No idea who the coach is. Likely it won't be Russ Pennell. In fact, despite the Sweet 16 appearance it appears Pennell may not be on the Wildcats bench at all. What do we know about the Wildcat roster? Jordan Hill is going to be a top 5 pick. He's gone. Chase Buddinger gave the Wildcat faithful an extra year and he's flirting with the lottery. He's gone. As for Nick Wise...he's a talented junior who should be back for a senior season. At least there's that for Wildcat fans.
Offseason Question: "Will Jamie Dixon be the next head coach of Arizona?"
Recruit to Watch: None. The coaching situation can't help. Interestingly, the only recruit signed (according to Rivals.com) was Tremayne Johnson. Why do I find it (somewhat) interesting? He was recruited by Reggie Geary.

Michigan State outlasted Kansas 67-62. While it seemed Collins was going to take control of the game down the stretch, a few lapses in judgment ultimately took out the defending national champions.
Kansas in 2009: This is a very young team. At the epicenter are Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins. The likelihood of Collins staying seems pretty high. As for Aldrich, I wouldn't be surprised if he made an immediate decision. If that's the case, he may be in those pre-draft rookie camps trying to climb up a few boards. If both stay, Bill Self has Final Four talent yet again.
Offseason Question: "Alright, Cole. What's it gonna be? Staying or going?"
Recruit to Watch: After bringing in 7 quality recruits in 2008, Bill Self tabbed two more. I'm most interested in 6'8 Thomas Robinson, who may see a lot more court time if Mr. Aldrich bolts early.

West Regional

UCONN controlled Purdue from start to finish, defeating the upstart Boilermakers 72-60. Jim Calhoun continues his march to a potential 3rd title in 10 years. Impressive to say the least.
Purdue in 2009: Matt Painter was frequently quoted as saying his team was working "ahead of schedule". You can't blame him one bit when you look at the roster he has. The team is likely to again be at the top of the Big Ten and, if Hummel stays healthy, can use this year's tournament run to their advantage this season. Look out for the Boilermakers in 2009.
Offseason Question: "How do they keep Hummel healthy an entire season and work their way up to a high seed?"
Recruit to Watch: Looking for depth is a recruiting advantage. Building for the future has to be considered when you bring back your entire starting 5. D.J. Byrd said no to Notre Dame, Indiana, Butler, and Xavier. That grabs my attention for Matt Painter and company.

Missouri somewhat stunned the Memphis Tigers 102-91. To put this in perspective: John Calipari's teams have never given up 100 points in a game. Ever. Until tonight.
Memphis in 2009: At the beginning of the season, I would've told you that Tyreke Evans was the #1 choice to be 1-and-done. Not so much anymore. In fact, can Evans be talked back into staying? Probably not. Nevertheless, it's not just Evans that is leaving potentially. Seniors Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier will be sorely missed. Shawn Taggart and Doneal Mack may feel kinda lonely next season. Then again, judging by their highly ranked recruiting class, Memphis will be just fine in Conference USA and come tourney time. More than fine, in fact.
Offseason Question: "Is there a legitimate scenario which Calipari takes to bolt to another program?"
Recruit to Watch: Xavier Henry is signed. No surprise that he's a top-5 overall recruit. DeMarcus Cousins has verbally committed and may be the top recruit in the country. If (my) #1-ranked John Wall ends up joining the Tigers (is he waiting for Evans to make a decision?), I might put Memphis as the preseason favorites to cut down the nets. Scary good potential trio of freshman phenoms.

East Regional

Pitt fended over Xavier, in large put due to (trash) an incredible shot from senior leader Levance Fields. Xavier falls just short yet again. I continue to feel for them.
Xavier in 2009: After losing so much in 2008, I wondered if the Musketeers had enough to be a top program in 2009. I won't misunderestimate this team again. Having only one senior on the roster is a good thing. Although being that it's BJ Raymond makes it sting a little extra.
Offseason Question: "If the dominoes start to fall, will Sean Miller be leaving for (of all places) Pitt?"
Recruit to Watch: I'm not picking a name. Chances are I won't value the right kid and he'll end up being a 3-4 year stud for the Musketeers. Yeah, it's like that.

Villanova fizzled early; fortunately, DOOK stunk up the joint for the entire 40 minutes suffering their worst tournament loss in nearly 30 years.
Duke in 2009: I hate to be a hater, but getting Greg Paulus off of this roster will only be a good thing. As for losing Gerald Henderson, that will hurt quite a bit. His athleticism and attitude will be sorely missed by Coach K. However, a few All-American blue chippers will enter this season (as always) and there is still a foundation with Singler, Scheyer, Smith, Williams, and Thomas in place.
Offseason Question: "What's the first step towards Duke regaining its status as a yearly Final Four contender?"
Recruit to Watch: Ryan Kelly appears to be the typical 5-star Duke recruit. Here's my typical-issue with a Duke recruit: he's 6'9 and 205 lbs. I bet he has an affinity for the flop and the three-point shot too, right?

South Regional

North Carolina coasted past Gonzaga 98-77. By the way, Ty Lawson looks more than ready to lead this team to a national championship.
Gonzaga in 2009: Not many teams are losing as many names at the Zags. Who you ask? Jeremy Pargo, Micah Downs, and Josh Heytvelt have been staples the past couple of seasons in Spokane. Don't cry for Mark Few just yet though. He'd an incredible savvy recruiter and his team always loads up his schedule before WCC-play to prepare them for tourney play.
Offseason Question: "Is this a team capable of taking the next step and reaching its first ever Final Four or are they (and Xavier) a perennial "almost there" team?
Recruit to Watch: Mangisto Arop. What can I say? I love the name.

Oklahoma started with a confident swagger early and never looked back against Syracuse, winning by more than the 13-point margin on the scoreboard as time expired.
Syracuse in 2009: No excuses about Flynn's back are necessary. The team shot 0-10 from behind the arc in the 1st half and were downright sluggish and lazy for the game's opening 25 minutes. While returning to the Big Dance after a two year absent was nice, the Orange better be hungry for more next season. Onuaku, Jackson, and Harris will finally have some depth behind them with Iowa State transfer Wesley Jonathan joining the Orange in '09. Kris Joseph can only improve and a few recruits, or even a healthy Jones/Jardine duo may steal a few backcourt minutes. Problem is: without Jonny Flynn, this team is in serious trouble. Potential redshirt point guard Mookie Jones isn't ready to run the point yet. If Flynn stays, he also has backcourt mates Devendorf and Rautins back. I hate to sound biased, but if he does stay, this team has serious national championship-potential.
Offseason Question: "Plain and simple: Is Johnny Flynn staying to fuel national title hopes in 2009?"
Recruit to Watch: 6'11 DaShonte Riley committed to Georgetown and then selected Syracuse over Marquette after some "second or third" thoughts. He'll have plenty of time to develop behind Onuaku and Jackson. Nevertheless, can he make a leap from year one to year two? Or will he redshirt and make what I just said even more irrelevant?


See you in a few to talk Elite Eight...

PHSports Sweet 16 Preview

Last weekend, we saw very few upsets in the 1st round and none in the 2nd round. This weekend, we see the most “chalk” matchups in recent tournament history.

West Region
#1 UConn v. #5 Purdue

From laptops, to suspensions, to torn ACLs, to MOP of the West Region? Could happen.
Credit: TampaBay.com

A day after the news of an alleged recruiting violation hits the airwaves, UConn must step onto the court for a crucial showdown against Purdue, who is no pushover now that they are finally healthy. The Boilers will need to make up for their size and rebounding gap (UConn has a +8.3 rpg margin while Purdue has a -0.3 margin) with good decision making and shooting.

Keys to Victory for UConn
1. Outphysical (not a word) Purdue and pound them on the boards
2. Alter shots and force the Boilers to settle on the perimeter
3. Get JaJuan Johnson and Nemanja Calasan into early foul trouble

Keys to Victory for Purdue
1. Hit mid- and long-range jump shots early to pull Thabeet away from the basket (a la Notre Dame)
2. Protect the ball (+3.5 turnover margin per game)
3. Have Chris Kramer glove AJ Price

Prediction: UConn, 67-62

#2 Memphis v. #3 Missouri
To date, Memphis has not met a team who likes to play the Tigers at their own game. That changes tonight. In Missouri, you have a team that averages 18.5 assists per contest and has two ball handlers who have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.5 or better. In Memphis, you have a team that defends among the best in recent college basketball memory (opponents shoot 36% and 29% from three-point range).

Keys to Victory for Memphis
1. Put their stamp on the game via defensive will
2. Collect offensive rebounds en route to 2nd-chance points
3. Defend the perimeter

Keys to Victory for Missouri
1. Put pressure on Tyreke Evans
2. Hit 3-point shots early and set the press
3. Attack Memphis’s bigs

Prediction: Missouri, 67-61


East Region
#1 Pittsburgh v. #4 Xavier
This matchup pits two of the best rebounding teams in the nation. Pitt and Xavier have rebounding margins of +9.8 and +8.4 per game, respectively. While Xavier does not want a street fight, they are not afraid of one like most of Pitt’s competition. One final key stat to think about: Pitt’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.5 while Xavier’s is 0.9.

Keys to Victory for Pittsburgh
1. 2nd-chance points
2. Domination at the point → easy opportunities in the low post
3. Keep DeJuan Blair and Sam Young out of foul trouble

Keys to Victory for Xavier
1. Use slashing cuts
2. Hit (39.9% as a team) & defend (33.2% against) the trifecta
3. Get DeJuan Blair into foul trouble

Prediction: Pittsburgh, 74-65

#2 Duke v. #3 Villanova

Assuming Dante Cunningham is the constant, which of the countless Villanova role players will take their turn and step up for Jay Wright's Cats?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

This is another strength versus strength matchup in the East Region. Both teams have multiple good ball handlers and both teams average 8 or more steals per game.

Keys to Victory for Duke
1. Covet the ball
2. Provide help-side defense on dribble drives
3. Singler/Henderson must stay out of foul trouble

Keys to Victory for Villanova
1. Get to the charity stripe early & often
2. Get the Coreys going
3. Force Duke to settle for deep shots

Prediction: 71-67, Villanova

Why Expanding the NFL Season = Fuzzy Math

We all remember that moment in the 2000 Presidential Debates. George W. Bush slammed Al Gore's economic proposals as using "fuzzy math" and "fuzzy numbers." That may have been one of the first times we saw that patented Dubya smirk (y'know ... the one where he looks like he's just said the most clever thing in the course of human history).

Well, now I'm taking on the Dubya role, and am calling out Roger Goodell for using fuzzy math in his proposal to expand the NFL Regular season. Yes, as a fan of professional football, I would LOVE an extra week or two of meaningful football. But I am also a fan of quality football, not games where the star players are missing due to injuries. Unfortunately, Goodell's proposal would drastically increase the chance of injury for the players who consistently grind it out on the gridiron.

"Raj ... Re-Run and I think you're usin some fuzzy numbers"

The Commish wants to expand the regular season to either 17 or 18 games, while dropping the pre-season to 2-3 games, thereby keeping the total number of games at 20. The problem comes to play when we look at actual playing time of starters. Starters generally play anywhere from 0-5 quarters of football during the preaseason, and never more than two quarters per game. And starters, of course, play every down of a regular season game. So, by replacing even just one preseason game with one meaningful contest, the starters will be playing more downs in 20 games. And let's not forget that the players will also be playing harder in that one game than in the two quarters which it's replacing.

I may be in the minority, but if you want to increase the regular season by a game or two, you can't keep the total number of weeks at 20. Not if you want quality football to continue throughout all 17-18 regular season games. 18 + 2 does not equal 16 + 4. That's just fuzzy math.

UConn Reportedly Violated NCAA Rules, PHSports Not Surprised

In a report from Yahoo! Sports (and later followed up by ESPN) that is expected to make waves on a day involves no NCAA tournament games, there are allegations that UConn violated NCAA recruiting rules in pursuit of former guard Nate Miles. The allegations are as follows:

• One of UConn's assistants knew about the relationship between Nate Miles and Josh Nochimson, a former student manager turned sports agent, as early as fall 2006.
• Phone records show UConn coaches may have exceeded limits on phone calls and text messages to Miles and others close to him. In December 2006, for example, former UConn assistant coach Tom Moore made 27 calls to Miles's guardian and a person Miles referred to as an uncle, as well as three calls to Miles. The limit is one.

While UConn gears up for its Sweet 16 tilt against Big Ten tournament champion, let's take a very short trip down memory lane. Their star point guard, AJ Price, was one of two players on the team who attempted to sell stolen laptop computers. The purported ringleader was, of course, Marcus "Laptop" Williams. The message is clear. UConn puts winning above accountability. Sure, Williams was kicked off the team for a period, but he was welcomed back. Why? Jim Calhoun values results over any measure of accountability or representing your institution with any sense of dignity, and he has proven that he is willing to cut corners to obtain the desired outcome.

We are not saying that UConn is guilty in the recruitment of Nate Miles. We're just not surprised. Not one bit.

Also, I would not be surprised to see Tom Moore outed as the fall guy. Valued former assistant Dave Leitao is out of a job since getting the heave-ho from UVa and he could fit that bill.

Fantasy Baseball: Tear Apart Sum's Roster

Are you all bracketed out? Tired of the NCAA tourney? Can't stand watching all that great college basketball? No, I'm not tired of it either, and doubt I ever will be. But, we must show some love to America's former favorite pastime (since we all know football has taken over the #1 spot on both the AP and Coaches polls) of baseball. Unfortunately, I'm even less knowledgeable about baseball than I am about college basketball. I drink my Red Sox kool-aid every morning from opening day through the fall classic, and that's about it. Surprisingly, however, I'm in a fantasy baseball league, and we just had our draft last weekend. So I thought I'd come to you, the loyal PHSports readers, with my lineup so you can berate my picks while laughing and pointing at me (just remember, when you point at me, three fingers are pointing back at you).

The dude even wears red ... ohhh yeah

A quick primer about my league. It's a rotisserie format, with the following stat categories: Runs, Home Runs, RBIs, Stolen Bases, Batting Avg., Wins, Saves, Ks, ERA and WHIP. It's an 11-team league, with a wrap around draft. I had the 9th pick in all odd number rounds and 3rd pick in even number rounds, and there were 23 rounds in total. I have my picks, in order, below, along with the players taken directly before and after my selections (my picks in bold). Let me know what you think and who I should get rid of ASAP.

Round 1: (Josh Hamilton) Ian Kinsler - 2B, Tex (Ryan Braun)
Round 2: (Ryan Howard) Tim Lincecum - P, SF (Evan Longoria)
Round 3: (Russell Martin) Jason Bay - OF, Bos (Carlos Quentin)
Round 4: (Brandon Phillips) Brandon Webb - P, Ari (Ray Halladay)

After 4 rounds, I had the top 2 pitchers in the NL last year (Credit: The Arizona Republic)

Round 5: (Nick Markakis) Joe Mauer - C, Min (Alex Rios)
Round 6: (Shane Victorino) Adrian Gonzalez - 1B, SD (Rafael Furcal)
Round 7: (Chipper Jones) Ryan Doumit - C, Pit (Hunter Pence)
Round 8: (Garrett Atkins) Josh Beckett - P, Bos (Brad Lidge)
Round 9: (Cliff Lee) Adrian Beltre - 3B, Sea (Mariano Rivera)
Round 10: (Ryan Ludwick) Ervin Santana - P, LAA (Jon Lester)
Round 11: (Mike Aviles) Raul Ibanez - OF, Phi (Derek Jeter)
Round 12: (Robinson Cano) Joakim Soria - P, KC (A.J. Burnett)
Round 13: (Jorge Posada) Denard Span - OF, Min (Jose Valverde)

Who the hell is this guy? And why did I draft him ahead of Jhonny Peralta? (Credit: boston.com)

Round 14: (BJ Ryan) Khalil Greene - SS, StL (Carlos Delgado)
Round 15: (Brad Hawpe) Randy Johnson - P, SF (Francisco Cordero)
Round 16: (Zack Greinke) Xavier Nady - OF, NYY (Brett Myers)
Round 17: (Max Scherzer) Jason Motte - P, StL (Brandon Morrow)
Round 18: (Mike Gonzalez) Hank Blalock - 1B, 3B, IF, Tex (Rick Ankiel)
Round 19: (Willy Taveras) J.D. Drew - OF, Bos (Jered Weaver)
Round 20: (Matt Lindstrom) Jim Thome - Util, CWS (Nick Swisher)
Round 21: (Mike Pelfrey) Chris Volstad - P, Fla (John Smoltz)
Round 22: (Jeff Clement) Wandy Rodriguez - P, Hou (Fernando Rodney)
Round 23: (Troy Percival) Clay Buchholz - P, Bos (Jesus Flores)

So, I went a little Red Sox heavy, with 4 players. But you can't blame me for taking Clay in the last round ... can you?
(Credit: yoursportsmemorabilia.com)

Early on, as the best batters were flying off the board, I decided to try and concentrate on the pitching categories, in particular the starting pitchers. Needless to say, I'm quite happy with a rotation that includes Lincecum, Webb, Beckett, and Ervin Santana. Randy Johnson is a question mark, but I figured he was worth the risk in round 15. Of course, the flip side of having a great pitching staff is my fairly weak batting order. None of my guys had over 36 HRs last year, and only three had over 100 RBIs. I think I'm fairly solid with regard to catchers, and that is a weak spot on other teams, but my outfield leaves much to be desired ... as does my infield.

My hope is that come mid-August, I'll be so far ahead in the pitching categories and close enough in the batting categories, that I can trade away one or two of my starting pitchers to get some solid upgrades at the plate. But give me some feedback. Who did I reach on? Did I get any steals? Best pick? Worst pick? Lay it on me...

InClement Weather: Sweet Sixteen Thoughts

Opening Round Reactions can be found HERE and HERE.

Oh yeah, in case you didn't know, people HATE Eric Devendorf.
See! See! See! [All three posted next to the Syracuse result for today. COOL RIGHT!?!?]
Guess who loves it? Eric Devendorf.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Midwest Region

Louisville put the load on Terrence Williams and he responded with a stellar performance down the stretch against Siena. Their reward? An NBA-loaded squad from Arizona who is playing with house money. Execution in the opening 5 minutes and closing 5 minutes of each half will dictate who advances to the Elite Eight in this game.

Arizona proved a lot of experts correct. 1) They didn't deserve to be in the tournament field based on their regular season resume. 2) Once they got in, Arizona had a favorable draw and was very likely to make their way to the Sweet Sixteen due to their incredibly talented roster. Funny how things work out, right?

Kansas escaped a slow start against Dayton, mainly due to Dayton's even slower start. Cole Aldrich further impressed NBA scouts with a triple-double (13 pts, 20 rebs, 10 blocks!). The defending champs aren't afraid to grind out tough victories. Enter their next opponent...

Michigan State executed down the stretch, USC couldn't. The lack of urgency from the Trojan players during the final possession had to be unsettling for Tim Floyd (or was it?). The Spartans had 7 players log over 17 minutes and seem as balanced a squad remaining. Question is: do they have the offensive firepower necessary to win games in which they can't slow down the tempo to a crawl?

West Region

UCONN dispatched Texas A&M (as expected) with relative ease on Saturday afternoon. I was out watching I Love You, Man. I bet you wish you had too.

Purdue withstood all Washington could deliver in the 2nd half to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Obvious memo out to the Boilermakers: you'll need two stellar halves to have a chance against UCONN. The real question remains: who can put Thabeet and Adrien on their butts on the Purdue front line? Any takers?

Missouri's ending against Marquette was one of the oddest endings you're likely to see in an NCAA Tournament game, without a buzzer beater being involved. J.T. Tiller made a fantastic Eaton-esque move to the hoop, with the game tied at 79 with 5.5 seconds to go, and drew a foul. After an awkward fall, "pinch-shooter" Kim English - yes, to add drama he is a freshman - nailed two free throws. Any Marquette fan was ballistic. Unfortunately, things only got worse when Lazar Hayward turned the ball over by stepping over the baseline before inbounding the ball. I don't want to hear about Acker's half-court heave/no foul call either, please. The final result was Missouri outlasting a gutsy Marquette squad. I thought if McNeal went for 30 and James played it'd be enough; however, Mike Anderson's incredible reclamation project at Missouri continues to improve.

Memphis dispatched Maryland early on. Tyreke Evans now has a gritty Missouri roster to deal with. Good luck to both sides on that front.

East Region

Pittsburgh trailed Oklahoma State with less than 3 minutes to go and then promptly answered the bell with its big 3 (Young, Blair, & Fields) making plays down the stretch. Can they dodge a third potential bullet against Xavier? Probably not. Will they storm out early and finally establish themselves as a legit #1-seed? Probably. By the way, Jamie Dixon has quickly become a Coach K-esque whiner on the sideline. He is livid after every call and has not lived up to the moniker of a tough coach on a tough team. He's a whiner. Plain and simple. Odd since DeJuan Blair walks a thin line between outworking and outright bullying opponents in the blocks.

Xavier withstood a brutal Wisconsin defensive effort in the first-half and executed down the stretch in the second half. I keep finding myself baffled at how much Xavier lost from last season's roster and has rebounded to make the Sweet Sixteen. They'll need nothing short of a stellar effort to make a second consecutive Elite Eight; however, if they can click on offense early and establish their tempo against Pitt, it's more than possible.

Villanova took out UCLA outside of the school's business building. Ridiculous.

Duke may have defeated Texas. They also may have gotten one too many fortunate calls down the stretch. Not that it should come as a surprise. Sure, I can hate all I want. Problem is: Duke may be Final Four bound if John Scheyer is going to be this heady a player. Uh oh.

South Region

UNC got an incredibly gutsy performance from Ty Lawson to overcome a scrappy LSU team down the stretch. It was nothing short of gutsy, but not heroic. Calm down, beat writers. Marcus Thornton tried his best; yet, the Heels were simply too much thanks in large part due to their talented point guard. They'll need this for four more games from Lawson. If healthy, this team would be a lock to cut down any and all nets. Problem is: he won't be 100%. That makes things slightly more dicey.

Gonzaga offered us as close a buzzer beater as possible. WKU had a legit gripe after not getting the timeout call. I can't imagine being in their shoes. Nevertheless, the tough reality is that Gonzaga still made the shot and still won. I'm pumped for UNC/Gonzaga. Which means the Tar Heels are gonna rout the Bulldogs and win by 30. Why? Because they can be that good.

Syracuse stiffled Arizona State for much of the game, responding to any adversity with calm outside shooting and a suffocating zone. The fourth Sweet Sixteen for Boeheim since '98, the Cuse should already be drawing up plans to hope to "contain" Blake Griffin. Good luck. Meanwhile, I am not pleased with the AP headline of Cuse "edging" ASU. When the Sun Devils cut the game long double-digit lead to 5, two straight 3s put it back to 11. The culprit was the most hated man in the tournament himself, Eric "K-Fed" Devendorf. James Harden is lucky NBA defenses aren't able to use a true zone defense. If so, the past two games might've knocked him out of the top 10. Cuse advanced and I sleep easy for a few more night.

Oklahoma defeated Michigan after the Wolverines excited their fanbase a little too much early on. Griffin took control, had a sensational posterizing-dunk, and the Sooners are quietly shaping back into form. Jeff Capel has a huge task ahead of him. One star player, no matter how incredibly talented, won't be enough without a solid gameplan that attacks the zone and isolates the Cuse big men to produce down the stretch.

Enjoy a few days of rest. If you have a team alive, keep on livin' the dream.
If not, don't resort to watching the NIT. Please.

InClement Weather: Opening Round Reactions [Part II of II]

Mid-day update.
We spoke earlier. You enjoyed it. Admit it.
Check the poll to the right of the page, too.

Villanova stormed past UCLA and never looked back. This being a home court game didn't hurt, but it didn't decide a thing either. Nevertheless, it's ridiculous the Wildcats played their opening round games on a court they hosted 4 teams at this season.

Memphis led from the start against an overmatched Maryland squad. Tyreke Evans had 13 points early and the entire Memphis roster got involved from start to beginning. Most impressive line? Antonio Anderson took 2 shots and dished out 11 assists. Perhaps this is a Final Four-caliber squad.

Three 5:00ish tipoffs underway.

LSU needs to work harder than UNC on both sides of the ball. Unlikely. Seeing Ty Lawson's face on the bench early was not a good sign for Tar Heel fans. Even if they would have 4 days off after a victory, Lawson will need to be 100% before the Final Four. The last 5 minutes of the first half may have decided things early on. LSU is simply not good enough to execute play-in and play-out against Roy's boys. Carolina closes the half on a 17-7 run after trailing (briefly) 20-19. I'll be interested to see a team who can get into the penalty as quickly as the Heels do. Nova perhaps?

Purdue started off red hot; however, Washington has righted the ship and got the deficit under double-digits. You blink and what you just said isn't so succinct. Purdue leads 39-28 at the half.

Oklahoma and Michigan are in a bit of a stalemate. No surprise with a Big Ten team involved. Somewhat surprisingly, Michigan leads 28-25. Could another Player of the Year be going out in the first weekend? Not so fast.

As for the 1st (aka "Opening") Round...

East Region

I'll take Travis Ford over Bruce Pearl any day. As for Eric Andrews. Well...
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Pittsburgh survived a scare from East Tennessee State 72-62. Honestly, you can realistically point to ETSU blowing this game with their wretched performance from the foul line (12-24). Meanwhile, if DeJuan Blair thinks he's gonna get away with being that physical in the second weekend...it ain't happening.

Oklahoma State, coached by Travis Ford, narrowly defeated Tennessee 77-75 in potentially the opening weekend's most nailbiting game. The Vols took a late lead on a clutch 3-point play from Tyler Smith, only to lose it (and the game) to Byron Eaton's heroics on his own 3-point play with less than 10 seconds to go. Seriously, hasn't Eaton been at OSU for a decade? On another note, Bruce Pearl is becoming a bit of underachiever considering the talent he recruits.

Wisconsin upset Florida State 61-59. "James" Toney Douglas and the Noles had the lead far too often down the stretch, even by 3 in the final minute, to lose this game. Give all credit to Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Hughes is a clutch performer, plain and simple.

Xavier took out Portland State, mainly in the second half, 77-59. It's highly understated how much Xavier lost last season and how talented they remain. Remember that Greg Oden all-out shove may have cost this team a Final Four last season.

UCLA snuck past VCU 65-64 in the closing seconds. VCU play uninspired basketball for 35 minutes and in the end, Maynor seemed more worried about drawing a foul than making the winning shot. I was there and it was painful. Meanwhile, UCLA can thank way too many clutch free throws for their victory.

Villanova withstood American to win 80-67. American was up 14 in the second half and then got stuck on 55. Garrison Carr channeled Stephen Curry quite well for 15 minutes. Jeff Jones keeping Carr out far too long - 4 fouls or not - and the foul situation itself doomed the Eagles. How Villanova was in the double bonus at the 14-minute mark is unforgivable. Meanwhile, they might as well have played this game at the Villanova dorms to make it any more un-neutral. A disgrace by the tournament committee. Disgrace!!!

Texas coasted past Minnesota 76-62. With all the talent on the Longhorns roster, they will not surprise anyone to give Duke one hell of a game.

Duke stormed past Kornheiser's Bighamton squad. No comments necessary.

South Region

It's not just Blake (front and center) who needs to be a manchild in the coming games. Brother Taylor - who Pay and I often disagree a lot about - better be more than a body double who cleans up misses after his brother is triple-teamed.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

North Carolina played sans-Lawson and did what you expect great teams to do: destroy 16 seeds 101-58.

LSU had the athletes and the game plan to take out Butler 75-71. So they did.

Western Kentucky "upset" Illinois (how undeserving a 5-seed were they?) 76-72. Bruce Weber got the most out of this team; however, they were clearly not going very far this year in the tournament.

Gonzaga pulled away from a pesky Akron squad to earn a 77-64 victory. The key for the Zags is not showing up in a potential Sweet Sixteen showdown with the Tar Heels. Instead, it's making the Sweet Sixteen and then worrying about their performance against the South region's top-seed.

Arizona State took an early lead and Dionte Christmas the Temple Owls never caught up, losing 66-57. James Harden was ice cold - only 9 points - but the Sun Devils got a dynamic first-half from Derek Glasser and stellar performance from post-man Jeff Pendergraph.

Syracuse was up 20-4 early and cruised to as easy a first-round victory as Coach Boeheim could've asked for 59-45. SDSU shot 0-15 from behind the arc to start the game. Impressive. Johnny Flynn is still searching for his legs, but at least the Orange have their first tournament win since 2004.

Michigan held on to defeat Clemson 62-59. With two NBA-caliber players on the floor (specifically Manny Harris), the Wolverines were bumpy at best in the second-half, yet held on for their first W in the NCAA Tournament in nearly 11 years. No kudos for Clemson's Terrence Oglesby, whose costly ejection was, well, costly.

Oklahoma waxed Morgan State. Sadly, what ended up being most memorable for this game was the "flipping" of Blake Griffin. What a way for the team to represent themselves in the tournament for the first time ever.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend slate. See you Monday!
But before I go...here's a classic Bruce Pearl/Eric Andrews moment.

InClement Weather: Opening Round Reactions [Part I of II]

I don't like text limits. That being said, I'm using them today. All day. Seriously. No, seriously.

Saturday afternoon update: Villanova leads UCLA 44-31 at the half. Role reversal for both teams. Nova trailed 10 on Thursday night to American and UCLA led VCU (tear) by 10. Sometimes I wonder if Villanova is better off with Scottie Reynolds on the bench. I also wonder if everyone is better off without Jay Bilas commentating.

Meet the new "stockbroker" America.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Midwest Region

Louisville defeats Morehead State 74-54. The Cardinals allowed the pesky play-in-game winners to stick around in the 1st half; however, too much talent and too much athleticism won out.

Siena took down Ohio State 74-72 in double overtime. The debate continues: should you or should you not foul a team down 3 with under 10 seconds to go?

Arizona "upsets" Utah 84-71. If you're ever looking for a first-round upset, always target the most talented 12-seed from a major conference (see: Villanova last season).

Cleveland State throttled Wake Forest 84-69. Perhaps the best team out of the Horizon (seriously), this is the same team that won in the Carrier Dome earlier this year. Wake Forest hasn't been right for 2+ months, this shouldn't have been a major shock.

Dayton took out West Virginia 68-60. I'm now allowing any injury-excuses for the Mountaineers, Bob Huggins and this group straight-up underachieved in this region. Props to the Flyers.

Kansas beat North Dakota State. Ben Woodside was a lot of fun to watch. Kansas is NOT a lock to easily take out Dayton; yet, with every win they get more and more dangerous.

USC stormed past Boston College 72-55. Maybe a lot of the "experts" picked USC a year too early. Yet again, the (middle of the) ACC has no established tempo and has the game dictated by their opponent.

Michigan State hardly breezes past Robert Morris. The motivation of playing in Ford Field may not be enough; however, this Spartan team might just need to win by any means possible (despite how ugly it looks).

West Region

No offense to Charles Abouo, but it won't be so easy for A&M to suffocate Thabeet and Adrien on Saturday.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

UCONN dismantled Chattanooga 103-47. Jim Calhoun is a brilliant coach, but why has he missed 3 tournament games over his career?

Texas A&M defeated BYU (again) 79-66. 1) Why did this have to be a repeat matchup? 2) How often do teams lose when they make their first 10 shots?

Purdue held on against Northern Iowa 61-56. The Boilermakers are a popular sleeper pick, but will need a far better second half on Saturday to survive and advance.

Washington defeated Mississippi State 71-58. I think a few too many people overestimated the Bulldogs and underestimated the Huskies. Mistake!

Marquette outlasted Utah State 58-57. Their second win without James, the Golden Eagles aren't going to be able to keep up with the Tigers without a spectacular individual effort from Jerel McNeal.

Missouri outpaced Cornell 78-59. If the Tigers can start their games a little hotter from the field, this is the darkhorse of the region far too few are talking about.

Maryland beat California 84-71. Anyone who depended on a Mike Montgomery-coached team...sit down. Vasquez talks just as much as Devendorf, and I love it!

Memphis fought back to defeat CSU Northridge. Tyreke Evans is an uber-talented kid, but can he realistically lead a team to the Final Four?

A Preview Ahead...

UCONN matches up against Texas A&M. The Aggies may need to make their first 10 shots again to keep up with the Huskies. Calhoun should be back in action and the gameplan has to focus around limiting open shots for Josh Carter. If the Aggies want to pull the upset, attack Thabeet and hope for foul calls. Meanwhile, the Huskies need Jeff Adrien to establish himself early and wear down the A&M frontline.

Purdue and Washington could likely put up one of the most competitive matchups of the second round. Purdue started rock solid and then ended with a thud against Northern Iowa. That won't be acceptable today. Washington can win this game if they develop an inside-outside attack. The key to that is the play of PG Isaiah Thomas, who can't shoot 3-13 from the field again.

Maryland draws a wounded Memphis team who can't be underestimated, despite a very poor effort in the opening round. Tyreke Evans must limit fouls - on both sides of the ball - and involve his teammates early. For the Terps, Vasquez will have the be Superman - perhaps to the tune of a near triple-double - and play within his emotions. The Terps will need their role players to control weak side rebounds and hit open shots. Maryland needs an A+ effort to advance to the Sweet Sixteen; especially if Memphis doesn't return with their D game.

Tomorrow, Marquette and Missouri meet up. This was a highly entertaining OT game in 2003, the last time these two teams met up in the NCAA Tournament. Marquette has four guys who can carry the scoring load; however, they still aren't the same team without their senior PG James. Meanwhile, Missouri must value possessions by blending good shots and offensive rebounding. It's hard to outwork a team like Marquette. With such tremendous balance on offense for both teams, a star may need to rise above everyone else for either team to advance.

Enjoy today's action. We'll be back later with Part II.

PHSports Staff Picks & Predictions: 2009 NCAA Tournament

Sure, none of us correctly predicted Kansas would win it all last year ... but two out of four PHSports writers did have the Jayhawks in the Final Four. So maybe, just maybe, two of us have this year's winner somewhere in our listings as well. Unfortunately, none of us have my "Lawlma Mater" of American getting to the national semifinals ... but hey I can still dream, right?

So kick back, call Papa John's, and start reading how two of us pick UNC and two of us don't, all before tipoff at 12:20 pm EDT.

"I just don't see why we can't have a 640 team tournament instead ..." (Photo by Dennis Nett/The Post Standard)

Paymon
Final Four: Villanova, North Carolina, Louisville, UConn
National Champions: North Carolina over UConn
MOP: AJ Price, UConn

Top Sleeper: Arizona State
Under the Radar: Clemson
Underrated: UCLA
Overrated: Illinois, Oklahoma ... and Memphis

1st -Round Upset I Love: Western Kentucky over Illinois (esp. if Chester Frazier does not play)
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: Syracuse v. Arizona State
Final Comment: I anticipate a paucity of first-round upsets, which will set up a series of marquee games between evenly-matched teams on the tail end of the opening weekend. Ultimately, this tournament, like every other NCAA Tournament, will come down to steady guard play. If Ty Lawson is able to overcome his toe injury and Danny Green gets out of his shooting slump, then I expect the Tar Heels to cut down the nets in Detroit.

Clement
Final Four: Louisville (Midwest), Memphis (West), Villanova (East), North Carolina (South)
National Champions: Louisville Cardinals
MOP: Terrence Williams, Louisville

Top Sleeper: Stephen F. Austin (mid-major), Purdue (major)
Under the Radar: Butler (mid-major), West Virginia (major)
Underrated: Cleveland State (mid-major), Texas (major)
Overrated: VCU (mid-major...ouch), Kansas (major)

1st -Round Upset I Love: Stephen F. Austin (I don't love it. Believe me. Syracuse is 0-2 in opening round games after reaching or winning the Big East Tournament finals. They lost to #13-seed Vermont and #12-seed Texas A&M. I suspect they will start cold and lose a heartbreaker. However, they'll be a Final Four team next year...if Johnny Flynn remains with the Orange.)
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: Eric Maynor and the upstart Rams of VCU barely get by UCLA, setting them up for a match-up - in Philly - against the Villanova Wildcats. Why? I'd be there. I'd also LOVE to see any scenario with a 16-seed winning. Any of them.
Final Comment: This field is much more open than you think. I'm too Big East heavy; however, I also have Pitt out before the Sweet Sixteen (shocker!) and UCONN out before the Elite Eight (surprise!). Louisville will prove me wrong - yet again - and cut the nets down for Pitino.

Armin
Final Four: G'head...hate me...all the #1s make it this year. I'll be the smart-alec that says it.
National Champions: UNC (Sheesh...What's wrong with me?)
MOP: Someone named Tyler (ok...I officially hate myself)

Top Sleeper: Arizona (gotta pick my "alma mater")
Under the Radar: Utah State (that thug they got playing center is a BEAST)
Underrated: Tie...Northern Iowa & Western Kentucky
Overrated: Florida State

1st -Round Upset I Love: Arizona over Utah, of course
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: American vs. VCU....go Virginia!!!!
Final Comment: I'm filling out my sheet with teams that have the best looking cheerleaders. No other strategy has ever helped me do well in my tourney pools...figure I should implement this strategerie. ;)

Sum
Final Four: Louisville (Midwest), Missouri (West), Pitt (East), North Carolina (South)
National Champions: Pitt (over Louisville)
MOP: DeJuan Blair, Pitt

Top Sleeper: West Virginia (major), Western Kentucky (mid-major)
Under the Radar: Clemson (major, Butler (mid-major)
Underrated: Purdue (major), American (mid-major)
Overrated: Oklahoma (major), VCU (mid-major)

1st -Round Upset I Love: Western Kentucky over Illinois. Like Paymon mentioned, Frazier is not at 100% even if he does play, and that will hurt the Illini, especially against a strong 12-seed in Western Kentucky. And yes ... I do think they can repeat their Sweet 16 appearance of last year.
2nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving: UNC vs Butler, especially if Ty Lawson isn't back. Butler is an extremely solid squad that got jobbed (in my opinion) with the 9-seed. I think Butler's defense will give Hansbrough and Co. lots of trouble before finally giving way to the 'Heels in the last 5 minutes of the game.
Final Comment: The tourney is the Big East's to lose. Aside from 2-3 upsets (I don't count 9's beating 8's as an upset), I think the first round will hold true to form. Unfortunately, a lot of deserving mid-majors were excluded from this tournament (read: Creighton and St. Mary's) and saw their rightful spots go to undeserving majors (read: Arizona and Wisconsin). Good to know that Fudgy Packer still has his unannounced seat on the Selection Committee.

Yeah ... you know can't wait to see him at this job instead either. (Credit Tiricosuave.com)

Thanks for listening to us ... now make sure you DON'T bet your savings on our picks (though it's safer than investing in Citi...). Got an opinion? Want to tell us how wrong we are? Chime in below!

InClement Weather: Sweet Sixteen (Thoughts)

No doubt by now you've filled out a bracket (or 12) and begun to overanalyze what lies ahead for us all in the coming weeks.

Take a deep breath and calm down. In fact, enjoy sixteen (or so) thoughts about the bracket.

No, I'm not here to talk bubble either.

Midwest Region
1) Utah is already the most overrated team according to the entire country. Not me. But you say to me: "name on player on their team." That doesn't say anything negative about them; instead, it speaks to the lunacy in picking Arizona to march to the Sweet Sixteen automatically. Despite a load of talent, the Wildcats are undisciplined and unfocused (especially come March Madness in recent years). I would favor Cleveland State over Arizona. And that's not even because of the "hate".

2) Ohio State and Siena is a game you order the Direct Ticket package for, even if you don't know much about either team. It's going to be entertaining as two contrasting styles go to war. Both of these teams can scare Louisville. Big time.

3) USC ran through the Pac-10 Tournament all the way to their automatic bid, but they'll struggle with BC. If Rice hits his shots early, this game will be over very very early.

4) West Virginia is an up-and-coming team at the perfect time. If Ebanks can control himself against Kansas' bigs in the second round, the Mountaineers can shoot lights out from the beyond the arc and grab an early lead. Then Bob Huggins can switch up his defenses and frustrate you into bad shots. Just ask Pitt.

West Region
5) Nobody deserves BYU/Texas A&M again. Nobody.

6) Purdue and Washington are two teams that I fully expect to battle for a spot in the Elite Eight. Read that again and understand what I'm really saying.

7) Memphis might've gotten the break they needed by receiving the 2-seed. They get to play with a chip on their shoulder and one of the easier halves of their region's bracket. I don't buy Missouri just yet as an Elite Eight team. Despite having a fantastic coach, it won't happen this season for the Tigers.

8) Marquette is now done with that muderous Big East schedule - five-straight ranked opponents - and has (I think) finally adjusted to life with James. Nevertheless, they have a tricky first-round matchup against an underrated Utah State team. Can they win one game without James in the tournament? Of course. 2? Not so fast.

East Region

9) Two very contrasting styles when Wisconsin and Florida State meet up. Leonard Hamilton needs to be prepared for Toney Douglas to see two defenders at all times. If Kitchen attacks the hoop efficiently and the Noles use their size on both sides of the ball early on, the Noles will roll.

10) Texas and Tennessee both appeared to be top 10 squads at different points this season. During others, I wondered seriously if they were worthy of a tournament bid. One of them is bound to pull a major upset. But who? Paging Mr. Abrams and Mr. Chism.

11) Villanova playing in Philadelphia is better than 1-seed. This team is NOT afraid of meeting up with Pitt in the Elite Eight. Not one bit. They also shouldn't discount a scrappy trio of teams (American, VCU, and UCLA) in their way of a potential showdown with Duke. Yes, I actually just called UCLA "scrappy". Compared to the last three years, that's a compliment for this team.

12) Don't fall too in love with Eric Maynor and the VCU Rams pulling the "automatic upset" just yet. Even you Seth Davis. Darren Collison is the better PG on the floor, college-wise, if 100% healthy. Meanwhile, Larry Sanders will have to bang without picking up cheap fouls. While I like the Rams to win - especially if they shoot the 3 well and guard the 3 even better - the Bruins have several key players remaining (especially Collison and Shipp) from a squad that has made 3 straight Final Fours. Beware of Maynor though. Just ask the Patriots of George Mason. If the Rams start well, they don't lose very often.

South Region
13) Butler and LSU won't be able to keep up with UNC for even a half. Nevertheless, I'm interested to see how UNC manages Lawson - whom I expect to be 100% healthy - in their second round matchup. With the look of the draw, they'll need him healthy by the Sweet 16, especially if Gonzaga rolls in the opening weekend (which is far from automatic).

14) Syracuse vs. Oklahoma is a matchup many are already salivating over in the Sweet 16. Something tells me it won't happen, which would be a shame; especially for bleeding heart Orange fans like myself.

15) Look out for Temple, especially if Dionte Christmas can shoot over the Arizona State zone. The Sun Devils gave up big leads in their past two games, losing against USC in the Pac-10 final. While James Harden is the best player on the court, if he's cold early on, I like the Owls to gring this game out and potentially knock out the 6-seed.

16) If you have any ideas for gauging Clemson and Illinois: let me know, please?

Final NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection Stats

Here is PHSports’s final numbers (unofficial) for this year’s bracket:

Teams correct: 63/65
Exact seeds: 29/65
Seeds within one of seed line: 58/65
Score: 305

Though the final statistics are underwhelming and while I will agree to disagree that Arizona and Wisconsin did not deserve to be at-large teams, I was happy with the overall job that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee did and I was happy with my overall bracket projections. Below, you will see the scores by seeding quadrants. The take-home message: the Committee and I saw eye-to-eye on ranking the protected seeds, but not so much with the last 17 teams (who I admittedly pay less attention to).

Scores by Quadrant

Seed #s 1-4
Teams correct: 16
Exact seeds: 13
Seeds within one of seed line: 16
Score: 90

Seed #s 5-8
Teams correct: 16
Exact seeds: 6
Seeds within one of seed line: 14
Score: 74

Seed #s 9-12
Teams correct: 14
Exact seeds: 5
Seeds within one of seed line: 12
Score: 64

Seed #s 13-16
Teams correct: 17
Exact seeds: 5
Seeds within one of seed line: 16
Score: 77

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 (FINAL)

Following the exhaustive breakdown late last night, our focus in today’s post is brevity. That said, here is PHSports’s Final 65.

A few noteworthy points before we delve into the seeds and pairings ...
* San Diego State was knocked out as a result of Mississippi State winning the SEC Tournament. As a side note, was that not the worst officiating in a single minute of basketball since 1972?

* St. Mary’s is an 11 seed due to seeding conflicts for Texas A&M and Penn State. Speaking of A&M, if less than four of the five Big XII teams ahead of them find themselves on the bottom part of the bracket (i.e. seeds 2,3,6,7,10,11,14,15), they can earn a #10 seed.

* Despite exclusion from PHSports, I would not be shocked one bit to see Wisconsin in the field. I just do not understand the love. Their best non-conference win was at NIT-team Virginia Tech and their best win was versus Illinois (their only win in five tries against the 3 Big Ten teams who were clearly in the NCAA Tournament prior to the conference tournament). Against those teams, Penn State, who had the same conference record as Wisconsin and is on the outside looking in due to an excessive focus on the OOC SOS, won 4 games in 7 attempts – two of which were away from Happy Valley. Wisconsin’s best non-home win was against Michigan on Jan 1.

* Memphis does not deserve a 1 seed. If they get it over UConn, then the Selection Committee did not compare the resumes and drastically overvalued the loss of Jerome Dyson.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: DUKE (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Kansas
3: Syracuse, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: PURDUE (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, UCLA, UTAH (MWC), Illinois
7: Tennessee, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC), VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), AMERICAN (Patriot), STEPHEN F. AUSTIN (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), Akron (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

Last Four In: Minnesota, Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s
Last Four Out: San Diego State, Arizona, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Auburn, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
SEC: 3/12
Mountain West: 2/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10


The PHSports Bracket

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

Saturday Afternoon Running Blog

Check out Pay's latest brackets.
Jim Calhoun haters, rejoice!!!

7:00 pm

The afternoon becomes the evening...

The health of Robbie Hummel is much more important than Purdue winning tomorrow afternoon.
It wouldn't hurt the Boilermakers though.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

* #1 UNC goes down to Florida State in a great game. Derwin Kitchen sinks two clutch free throws and Ellington/Green misfire on late three-point attempts. Two games to remember for Kitchen in back-to-back-days (see: game winning layup against Georgia Tech in the closing seconds). Toney Douglas ia an amazing talent; however, he's very fortunate to be surrounded by a rock solid sidekick. Fear not Tar Heel fans, you're going to get a #1 seed. Your team more than earned it. In fact, you'll still be in Greensboro. Start snapping up tickets soon.

* Meanwhile, the Seminoles will meet the Blue Devils of DOOK tomorrow afternoon. I just might post a few questions tonight to Pay concerning the ACC Tournament Championship. Although I gotta wonder out loud: how many Seminole fans thought they'd win the ACC Championship...in basketball. By the way, the Dookies won't get a #1-seed, even if they wack the 'Noles AND the Orange defeat the Cardinals in MSG. Why? Duke needed to beat UNC to get the 1-seed, despite an uber-impressive resume. Disagree?

* Michigan State lost out on their only chance at a 1-seed, further dare-I-say-guaranteeing Louisville a chance to secure a #1-seed tonight at MSG. Pitino's boys are HEAVILY favored. For good reason, too. Ohio State just moved up a line or two as well, far away from the bubble.

* Is LSU trying to get the SEC a third bid by losing to Mississippi State? No. Is LSU as likely a top seed as there is to be upset VERY early next weekend? Yes. No wait. YES! The Bulldogs will match up with the Vols, who may have ended the season for the Tigers of Auburn. Somewhere, Chris Porter isn't happy. I remain unfazed altogether about SEC basketball.

* Temple leads Duquesne 42-37 at the half. Both teams aren't "stealing" bids. Why? Because every team on the bubble has dug their own grave. Two times over.

* Purdue defeated Illinois, avoiding their third straight loss. That's as sexy as a one-liner you'll get from a Big Ten result.

* Missouri leads Baylor by 4 points at the half. It's fun watching the Bears pull upset after upset, unlike Georgia last season. That team was very very bad, while I believe Baylor is a good team.

* Arizona State leads USC by 15 at the break. While USC worked their way closer to the bubble, an ugly loss here proves that the Trojans aren't going to be "in".

* San Diego State is one of the roughest bubble teams to gauge I've seen in the last 3-4 years. They can avoid any conflict and a sleepless night if they upset the Utes of Utah tonight. Will they? No. Why? To make the life of the Selection Committee more difficult. Seriously? No. But it sounds better, doesn't it?

* Also out west, in the WAC, Utah State could become the first 27-win team to NOT make the tournament. How? They might lose the automatic bid to mainstay Nevada. What changed the Wolfpack's season? Please don't mention the ,"Coach's ejection that led to a Friday night Bracketbuster weekend against VCU and my boy Eric Maynor who was too tired to carry his entire team who stood around and watched him play and wouldn't step up and make even one shot on the road, although I'm glad they did; especially Larry Sanders in the CAA Championship Game." Call it a hunch, but I'm predicting a Wolfpack upset. Why? To be a pain in every bracketologist's butt. Sorry Pay.

* There's also that aforementioned primetime game involving the "Overtime Orange" and the talented Cardinals of Louisville. Terrance Williams is licking his chops; meanwhile, Johnny Flynn and Eric "K-Fed" Devendorf better be ready for another 40-minute dogfight. Or will it be 40-minutes plus? You decide.

Back later. Maybe Pay can interject more sensible bracket banter.

3:30 pm

Coach Cal and Memphis cut down their yearly nets at the Conference USA Tournament.
Might as well be called the "Memphis Tigers Challenge".
By the way, could Memphis inch closer to a 1-seed if Louisville was upset by the (insert: tired) Orange?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

* Mississippi State joined Baylor (Big XII) & USC (Pac-10) as "Georgia's of 2009", aka teams trying to "steal bids with spots in their respective championship games". Although let it be know that Georgia was horrific last year and their coach was going to be fired any second. The Bulldogs and Trojans largely underachieved this season, thus far.

Note: Nobody should feel bad for any of the bubble teams. Nobody - even the most bleeding heart Maryland fans (who remember, lost to UVA on Sunday) - will be robbed of a birth this year.

* Pay proves to me yet again why he's the "bracket master", proving to me why many experts - including himself - has Arizona (with 3 wins against Conference Champions - Washington, Kansas, & Gonzaga) outside the bubble.

* Tony Kornheiser can rejoice as Binghamton is in the big dance, via the American East automatic bid. I'm always happy when Vermont is absent.

* Memphis keeps on winning. By a lot. There should be no debate about them being a 1 or 2 seed. If they are tired of the disrespect Conference USA is getting, leave the conference or share the wealth of your recruiting classes.

* Ohio State is ending the argument for Michigan State to earn a #1-seed, leading the Spartans 69-58 during the under-4 timeout at Conseco Field House. The Buckeyes will also lock down a spot in the Big Dance, recently a 10-seed with a few lingering questions in today's bracket from Pay.

* Florida State and UNC are enjoying the game of the afternoon. Psycho T with a rare "frustration foul" to earn his 4th. He won't earn a 5th. Mark it down. Seminole fans have been asking for the calls to even out; however, the refs have been steady. Toney Douglas is a baller, folks. This kid could carry this underrated team DEEP into the tournament. Welcome Wayne Ellington to playing well in a big time game. Yes, the Heels are still sans-Lawson.

* Auburn and Tennessee are prepared to tip off. If the Tigers want to go dancing, they need to pull off the upset.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 14, 2009

Following last night's second half comeback against Villanova, Louisville hopped over Pittsburgh to claim our overall #2 seed. Sticking with the #1 seeds, Michigan State slipped to the 2 line by virtue of how they played and an insight that is not being highlighted enough by the networks. A key point is that Michigan State is earning inflated credit for the number of RPI Top 50 wins (13). However, 9 of those 13 are against teams rated between 31 and 50. As a result, UConn - a tenant of the first seed line for nearly the entire season - reclaims its spot, but they may be shipped out west. Meanwhile, Memphis (i.e. ESPN's sentimental favorite for the #1 seed) is not even sniffing the 1 line, though they are in firm footing for a #2 seed if they defeat Tulsa.

Moving to the at-large bids, none of the teams placed after Maryland are secure. Also, the distance separating at-large bid # 25 (Penn State) and the First Three Out is paper thin. If Illinois (Penn State swept them) defeats Purdue, then Penn State will make a giant leap forward towards achieving status.

Since the Last Four In is as secure as the White House during an episode of 24 and there are many opportunities for bids to be stolen, there could be plenty of shuffling. Because of the possible scenarios, Auburn may need to defeat Tennessee in order to stay in the field.

Finally, choosing the 34th at-large bid was a chore. Ultimately, I felt that there will be a maximum of 7 bids from the Big Ten and that Wisconsin has the weakest of the resumes (SOS: 14; 1-4 v. top three Big 10 teams - v. Illinois) among the five bubble teams under consideration.

St. Mary's earned the nod over Creighton (for now) and Arizona for two reasons. First, it's the obvious Patty Mills factor. He is not 100%, but he is making a difference. Second, St. Mary's inclusion came down to road/neutral record and OOC SOS. St. Mary's is 13-5 in road/neutral games, while Creighton is 11-5 and Arizona is 2-9. Despite what is being said by the talking heads, Arizona (62) and St. Mary's (65) have a comparable OOC SOS. Creighton is a distant 222.

Protected Seeds (by Pod Host):
Boise -- Missouri, Florida State
Dayton -- Louisville, Michigan State
Greensboro -- North Carolina, Duke
Kansas City -- Oklahoma, Kansas
Miami -- Wake Forest, Villanova
Minneapolis -- Memphis, Syracuse
Philadelphia -- Pittsburgh, UConn
Portland -- Gonzaga, Washington

New Locks
Maryland

No Longer Under Consideration
Kansas State, Florida, UAB, Kentucky

Have comments or questions? Comment on the board or send your comment or question to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings (NOTE: These are unaltered seedings due to time constraints)
1: North Carolina (ACC), Louisville (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Duke, Memphis (C-USA), Oklahoma
3: Villanova, Wake Forest, Kansas, Syracuse
4: GONZAGA (WCC), Washington, Missouri (Big XII), Florida State
5: Illinois, Arizona State (PAC 10), Xavier, West Virginia
6: Clemson, Marquette, Purdue, UCLA
7: Utah (MWC), Tennessee (SEC), Butler, LSU
8: California, Texas, Boston College, BYU
9: Oklahoma State, SIENA (Metro Atlantic), Maryland, Penn State
10: Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio State, WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt)
11: San Diego State, Dayton, Auburn, Texas A&M
12: Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA), Temple (A-10), CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), St. Mary’s, AMERICAN (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), Pacific (Big West), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Maryland, San Diego State, Temple, Pacific
OUT: Wisconsin, Creighton, Arizona, Long Beach State

Last Four In: Dayton, Auburn, Texas A&M, St. Mary’s
Last Four Out: Wisconsin, Creighton, Arizona, USC
Next Four Out: Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Providence, South Carolina
Next Four Out: New Mexico, Baylor, Florida, Kansas State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
Pac-10: 4/10
SEC: 3/12
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10

Friday Night Running Bracket Blog

With the night unfolding the way it is, I thought it may be useful to have a running blog rather than respond to a flurry of communication.

1030pm

• By my count, there are 10 at-large bids available.
• If Duquesne (up 13) defeats Dayton, then Dayton is in real trouble. Some of Dayton's wins lost value this week.
• Florida/Auburn IS NOT a play-in game right this moment.
  
• An injury to Byron Eaton should not affect whether Oklahoma State is in, but it will affect their seeding. Ultimately, it depends on the severity of the injury. He is the biggest reason why Oklahoma State turned their season around. If they win tonight, that puts the conversation to rest.
• Bad double digit losses by Penn State and Michigan do not help at all.
• I love the people who have put and kept BC on the bubble for as long as they have. So what if they have a bad RPI? It's a single indicator. 9-7 in the top-rated conference, a win at UNC and wins versus Duke and FSU. Al Skinner's job is easy when you have a team that is so disrespected. They are up 7 at the half against Duke.
• Washington may drop as much as 1.5 seed lines if they lose (down 13). If they lose and Syracuse wins, they may swap seeds.
• St. Mary's is edging Eastern Washington in the first half. Without a strong showing, they may be on the wrong side of the bracket tomorrow.
• If San Diego State can finally beat BYU, they should be onto the correct side of the bubble.

1115pm

• San Diego State enters the fray and likely puts St. Mary's on the wrong side of the fence (for now). They defeated BYU on a neutral court and have earned a lot of respect of late.
  
• Washington loses to Arizona State and the question is: Which PAC-10 team(s) earn a protected seed? As of right now, Washington is on the 4 line, but not by much.
• Dayton is officially in panic mode. They have good wins versus Auburn, George Mason, Miami-Ohio, Temple and Xavier and at Marquette and Akron. On the flipside, they are 5-5 in their last 10 with losses to Charlotte, St. Louis and Duquesne.
• Duke has taken over the tilt against BC, but it's too close to call.
  
• Somehow, someway ... Byron Eaton is back in the game, but Mizzou is up.

200am

• There will be at least one surprise in tomorrow's bracket (HINT: The Big Ten only has 7 bids).
• Auburn's win over Florida keeps them in the Field of 65 and makes a case in others' brackets. They have 1 loss since February 4 and are defeating the best teams in their midst.
  
• USC defeats UCLA. Despite two neutral court victories against tournament teams in consecutive days, USC still needs to win tomorrow to earn a bid. One may think they're 11-9 in conference with balanced scheduling, but one must also think they have a Providence-like OOC resume.
• St. Mary's makes its presence felt with a 85-65 win over lowly E. Washington. Patty Mills scores 19 and hits 4 threes. The San Diego State win over BYU on a neutral court buoys St. Mary's resume (won @ SD State).
• Looking forward to tomorrow and Sunday, the potential bid stealers are: Temple/Duquesne (definite bid stealer - one will be in our field this morning), Tulsa (@ Memphis), Baylor (v. Missouri), USC (v. Arizona State) and Mississippi State (v. LSU).
• Lastly, do not buy the Memphis #1 talk. All I ask is ... WHO HAVE THEY BEATEN? Tennessee when they were struggling? Gonzaga. Tulsa and UAB twice each.
  

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 13, 2009

Win & Lock Up A Bid
Minnesota (v. Michigan State)
Virginia Tech (v. North Carolina)
Wisconsin (v. Ohio State)
Michigan (v. Illinois)
Maryland (v. Wake Forest)

New Locks
Boston College, Oklahoma State, Penn State

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Marquette, Michigan

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Texas, Siena

If you have questions, comments, uninhibited hatred, or think I really need some sleep, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Pittsburgh, Louisville (Big East), Michigan State (Big Ten)
2: UConn, Wake Forest, Duke, Memphis (C-USA)
3: Villanova, Oklahoma, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Syracuse, Florida State, Xavier (A-10), Missouri (Big XII)
5: GONZAGA (WCC), UCLA, Illinois, Texas
6: Clemson, Marquette, Arizona State, Butler
7: Tennessee (SEC), West Virginia, California, Purdue
8: Utah, BYU (MWC), Boston College, LSU
9: Oklahoma State, Penn State, Dayton, SIENA (Metro Atlantic)
10: WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
11: Creighton, St. Mary’s, Ohio State, Texas A&M
12: Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA), Auburn, CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
13: Arizona, NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky)
15: Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Auburn
OUT: UNLV

Last Four In: St. Mary’s, Ohio State, Auburn, Arizona
Last Four Out: South Carolina, San Diego State, Kansas State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Maryland, Temple, New Mexico, Providence
Next Four Out: Florida, Tulsa, USC, Baylor


No Longer Under Consideration: New Mexico, Providence, Notre Dame, Miami-FL, Davidson, Rhode Island, Northwestern

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 4/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 3/12
Mountain West: 2/9
West Coast: 2/9
Horizon: 2/10
MVC: 2/10
A-10: 2/14

Syracuse 127, UCONN 117 [6 OT]: Best Game EVER???

Best ever? It's not hyperbole. It's legitimately up for debate. In my short viewing experience - my first memories are of the 1989 title game between Michigan & Seton Hall - it takes the cake.

You've seen the stats. You know I am a Syracuse fan.
Nevertheless, here's 12 things you gotta know about perhaps the best college basketball game e-v-e-r.

All pictures credit to Yahoo! Sports and ESPN.com

1) Johnny Flynn played 67 of the 70 minutes. He also played 35 minutes of the 40 last night. Math majors, that's 102 minutes since 9:30 pm last night until 1:30 am this morning.

2) Syracuse committed only 16 turnovers in 70 minutes. Even UCONN's 27 don't seem unforgiveable considering the circumstances. UCONN had a rebounding edge of 76 to 62. How many teams overcome -14 rebound deficit to win? Not many.


3) Flynn deserves the gameball; however, don't discount AJ Price. He might've gotten all of his last-second misses out of his system tonight. Price went for 33 points and 7 assists. Yet, the late game misses will hurt...until UCONN throttles their first round opponent next week. He and Jeff Adrien both left a lot of shots on the floor tonight in the closing minutes. Kemba Walker deserves a lot of credit, especiall as a freshman, for the effort. He's obviously no Jerome Dyson though. Not many are.

4) 4 straight Big East Tournament losses for UCONN. Surprising or shocking? Although here's a number in their favor, 6 times they've won 15 games or more in regular season-Big East play. The rest of the field? No more than once each.

5) Paul Harris missed more "gimmes" and "puppies" than anyone could imagine. Nevertheless, the "Niagara Falls Boys" (Flynn & Harris) made 29 of 30 free throws.

Quote of the Day:
Radio Caller: Why doesn't Paul Harris shoot more jumpers? He has a sweet-looking shot.
Jim Boeheim: Two people in the world love Paul's jump shot. You and Paul Harris.

6) Speaking of free throws. What was more shocking: Onuaku making 2 consecutive free throws near the end of regulation OR Cuse as a team making 40-51 (78%) overall and 23 of 26 (88%)? If you know anything about the Cuse in the Boeheim-era, you know this ain't exactly normal.

Credit: HuffingtonPost.com

7) Remember that the UCONN kids and their coach had to interview after this loss. Imagine losing in 6 OTs - never actually trailing in the first 5 OTs - and having to talk about it snotty reporters and blog writers. Now is the time Calhoun - who I admitedly despise - can legitimately tell people to shutup, if he so chooses.

8) Look at the box score lines. Just look. These are unofficial.
A) Paul Harris - 29 points, 22 rebounds, (13-14 free throws), and yet it was a few layups and a missed dunk that almost cost the team. Blake Griffin has a lot of these nights in 30-25 mintues. Not in MSG against UCONN though.
B) Johnny Flynn - 33 points, 10 assists, (16-16 free throws), and only 2 personal fouls.
C) Andy Rautins - 20 points, (6-12 3 point field goals), and the backbreaking 3-pointer a mere 13 seconds in the 6th OT. Yes, the 6th OT.
D) Stanley Robinson - 29 points, 14 rebounds, 7 offensive rebounds, (11-19 FGs), and a potential return to form that will greatly enhance this Huskie team.
E) Hasheem Thabeet - 19 points, 15 rebouds, 6 blocks, and a 5th foul that left his team a shred of what is is with him. Blair, Griffin, and Hansbrough won't get 50+ minutes to draw a 5th foul on the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Oh yeah, the guy logged 50+ too.
F) Justin Thomas (walk-on) - 19 minutes all season, grabs his first rebound in the 5th OT.
G) Scottie Harrelson - 5 points and two baskets that normally win games and make Bucky Dent's out of 11th men.

9) I bitched a lot about the refs (who doesn't in the Big East against Calhoun???), but they let the kids play down the stretch. My only legitimate gripe: Jeff Adrien committed 12+ fouls. However, he was also out there to miss two potential game-winning shots. And yes, I admit the Devendorf shot was after the buzzer. I still wanted it to count...

10) Devendorf's shot was after the buzzer. Yeah, I said it again. Maybe by 0.0000001 seconds. Honestly, it was THAT close. Imagine that's the difference between a win in regulation and a historic shot AND a 6 OT game unlike any other. In the end, I honestly don't know which moment I wanted more. Doctors across upstate New York just made a fortune with elevated heart rates (credit to Pay for that gem).

Only Shane Falco has more heart than Johnny Flynn. Maybe.
Credit: MovieForum.com

11) Johnny Flynn taking that body blow trying to screen an unaware Thabeet on Devendorf's eventual miss. That is HEART. Shane Falcon-esque heart. Yeah, I said it.

12) Name a better game. Seriously. Name it. Even without a true buzzer beater for the win. Name a better game. Maybe this one?

Bracket Banter: Thursday Running Blog

3:00 pm: A few highlights from early afternoon action

* #1-seed Kansas was upset by Baylor in the quarterfinals of the Big XII tournament. I was more than a little suspect of the recent media-driven fascination with Kansas "deserving" a shot at a 1-seed. Nevertheless, Kansas will be an odd draw wherever they end up. How do you gauge this team? Unfortunately for the Bears, this doesn't get them in the tournament. However, I do want to invoke one team from last season to remind people how dangerous upsets like this are: Georgia.

Sorry Kansas. But in the words of JoJo, your hopes for a 1 or 2 seed are just "Too Little, Too Late".
By the way, what's up with the robot by the window?
Credit: Clipov.com

* Virginia Tech took out Miami in a very boring 8/9 matchup. Next up: North Carolina. The real question remains the status of Ty Lawson. Judgment call: he plays 15-20 minutes. Question to Pay: If Ty Lawson doesn't play, could that damage the value of a Hokie win? Enough at least to keep them outside of the bubble still?

* #1-seed Louisville jumped up on Providence early and never sweated during a double-digit victory. Will Providence be the "last" Big East team? Not likely. It looks like the conference will get 7 bids this season, not 10 as some predicted earlier this season.

* Villanova is up 34-22 in the first half against Marquette. Clearly the Golden Warriors are going to suffer as much as 2 or 3-seed lines due to loss of Dominic James. It's a shame considering how entertaining the first two matchups were, with a healthy James, between these two teams. Looking at the recent schedule and subsequent performance, you can't really blame the tournament committee if they make that decision. Villanova has a legitimate chance to cut down the nets in MSG. Seriously.

* Arizona and Arizona State are tipping at 12 noon on the "Left Coast". I'll be interested to see whom that affects more. Arizona can't afford a blowout here. Although the skeptic in me believes they'll make the tournament regardless. Any chance the Sun Devils want to make a statement after their bubble was bursted last season???

* Xavier avoided a letdown in the A10 opener. Sorry, but this conference lost my attention after the Musketeer's run to the Elite Eight last season ended.

Plenty to enjoy the rest of the day.
Oh yeah, Donte Green continues to be a bad memory for Cuse fans.

9:45 pm: Checking back in...

In the words of Trik Turner, "You know I'm down even when them odds are against us. It doesn't even matter, nothing else matters." Of course I'll watch the Cuse, win or lose.

Credit: MTV.com

* Georgia Tech upset Clemson. No surprise as the Tigers start 16-0 and finish 7-8. They did sneak up on a few people last season come bracket time though. Not this season, in my opinion.

* BYU got rid of pesky Air Force in the 2nd half.

* Washington continues to roll. They may be the hottest team west of the Mississippi.

* In case you haven't heard, West Virginia toppled #2-seed Pitt in the first real upset of the quarterfinals, 74-60. This proves Bob Huggins has his team playing rock solid basketball AND that Pitt is a legit Final Four contender. Not expending themselves completely this weekend is a good thing. Of course, this does mean no Pitt/UCONN #3.

* Over/under for Thabeet's blocks tonight is 7. He may have a triple double against the hobbled Onuaku and erratic Jackson/Ongenaet.

* James Anderson hit two free throws with 2.3 seconds to go and the Cowboys took out the Sooners 71-70. Blake Griffin and company are a shaky skaky bet in the coming weeks. I just don't trust this team and this coach to make the Final Four, Terminator and all.

* Missouri, in the "driver's seat" for the Big XII championship, draws Texas Tech and Mike Singletary (aka Mr. 29-points-in-a-row) tonight. Could the Big XII potentially have another "Georgia of 2008" on their hands?

Time to pull my hair out to the tune of Jeff Adrien collecting another W against the Orange.
Stanley Robinson is an annoying ass.

Peaking Ahead to Thursday's College Basketball Slate

Check out Pay's latest bracket projections.
Also check out the schedule for conference tournaments.
Last night's reactions are up too.

Tomorrow has quite a lineup. Here are some things to take note of (thanks Pay for the help):

Tubby Smith and Minnesota, Pay's third to last team in, are in action tomorrow against Northwestern, a team a little further down the bubble chart.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Games in RED have major bubble implications.

ACC First Round
Game 1: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Miami, noon
Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, ESPN2, 7 p.m.

Big East Quarterfinals
Game 1: No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 8 Providence, ESPN, noon
Game 2: No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 5 Marquette, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Pittsburgh vs. No. 7 West Virginia, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Connecticut vs. No. 6 Syracuse, ESPN, 9 p.m.

Big Ten First Round
Game 1: No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, noon
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, ESPN2, 5 p.m.

Big XII Quarterfinals
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Texas, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, 7 p.m.

PAC-10 Quarterfinals
Game 3: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 3 p.m.
Game 5: No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 9 p.m.

SEC Opening Round
Game 1: E4 Kentucky vs. W5 Ole Miss, 1 p.m.
Game 4: E3 Florida vs. W6 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.

Mid-major alert! Big West, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Southland, SWAC, and WAC (is that mid-major really?) games tomorrow as well. Enjoy!!!

InClement Weather: Midnight Musings

Check out Pay's latest bracket projections.
Also check out the schedule for conference tournaments.

A few highlights from the night of college basketball...

Close to a brawl at MSG. No dice though. Shocker. K-Fed was involved.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Dexter Pittman led Texas past Colorado. No surprise. The Buffs have lost 22 games this season. One word. OUCH!

Robert Morris received a lucky bounce down the stretch and defeated Mount St. Mary's 48-46 to secure their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1984 as Northeast Conference Champions. In case you didn't know, "The Mount" took out Robert Morris the past two seasons in the Championship game, on their own homecourt no less. Did any of that interest you?

Portland State and Montana State are tied up at 50 at the under-16 timeout in the Big Sky Championship. I'm not watching. Sorry, folks.

I can't feign an interest in the A10 Tournament yet. Sorry yet again. Ditto for the opening rounds of the SWAC, Mountain West, Conference USA, MEAC (quarterfinals), and the Pac-10 opener (Stanford over Oregon State and Oregon vs. Washington State). Oh yeah, Oregon has 22 losses too. Symmetry is cool.

...as for the rating draw of the night...

The Big East left ESPN360 and hit the "real networks" to broadcast the (real) opening round of the Big East Tournament.

As expected, teams 1-8 survived.

DePaul flirted with Providence, but ran out of gas down the stretch to a better team. Pay was right, this win meant nothing for Providence (who is squarely on the bubble). As Pay's second team out, the Friars may not get their at-large bid with just a valiant effort against #1-seed Louisville. In this writer's opinion, the Friars need the outright W for the outright bid. Don't worry symmetry opponents, DePaul has 24 losses.

Marquette broke a 4-game winning streak, leading by as much as 38-10 at the half. Don't get too excited. They were playing St. John's.

West Virginia took an early lead on Notre Dame and never looked back. In case you didn't know, I l-o-v-e watching Notre Dame lose. Here is a memo to Mike Brey:
1) Wear a tie.
2) Luke Harangody is the WORST defensive player I have ever seen.
3) Kyle McAlarney is a liability as he can't score inside 23-feet (and not efficiently enough outside of it).
4) Seriously dude, wear a tie.

Syracuse fought off a scrappy Seton Hall team, who actually led the Orange 37-36 in the second half. Turning point (outside of Cuse having superrior talent) was a scuffle between Arinze Onuaku and John Garcia (who?). AO taunted with a sissy-clap, earning a technical after Garcia shoved him, and a play later a flagrant foul (which should have led to an immediate ejection) led to Cuse opening up a 20-point lead in the next 8 minutes. Eric Devendorf going white-trash on the crowd was just a perk, I suppose. Jay Bilas then gave a 10-minute lecture. Not so good.

Luke didn't look faxed after getting posterized. Why? It happens a lot.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 11, 2009

After the thumping heard ‘round the world, the scuttlebutt across the net has been where the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee might place St. Mary’s. Right now, they are in our LAST 2 IN. This puts St. Mary’s in a tenuous position leading up to their home game against Eastern Washington on Friday night. Patrick Mills will need to perform, as the Committee will be following that game with a keen eye. Or so, we hope.

Sticking with the mid-majors, Butler fell a seed line after losing a tight home decision to Cleveland State, who effectively stole a bid. Under the current scenario, Auburn is on the outside looking in as a result of the thievery. If Florida defeats Arkansas and Auburn defeats Florida, then Auburn has an even stronger argument as to why they should be included.

As you will notice, there was a difference in the placement of Big Ten bubble teams since the last bracket. To better understand the problem, I determined the records of the Big Ten teams under heavy consideration (sorry, Northwestern, you’re not there yet) against the top 9 teams in the conference. I used the records and key wins to differentiate the teams and determine seeding. As a result, Ohio State seems to be on shaky ground, as their wins continue to lose value.

Penn State: 7-7 (@ Michigan State; Illinois (2); v. Purdue)
Michigan:7-8 (v. Duke; UCLA –N; v. Purdue)
Wisconsin: 7-7 (v. Illinois)
Minnesota: 6-9 (Louisville – N; v. Illinois)
Ohio State: 6-8 (v. Butler; win v. Purdue w/o Hummel)

Here are some impact games taking place tomorrow:
DePaul v. Providence: If Providence loses, they are eliminated from consideration. A win by the Friars has the nutritional equivalent of lettuce.

Iowa State v. Oklahoma State: If Oklahoma State loses, it opens the door for a number of teams to sneak in. The Cowboys lack quality wins away from Stillwater and a good showing is key to an at-large bid.

Notre Dame v. West Virginia: By my count, West Virginia is in, but a loss here could damage their seeding. Notre Dame needs to win this if they have any hope of making the tournament. If they can demonstrate that Harangody is not the entire team against a legitimate opponent, then that helps their cause that much more.

Texas Tech v. Texas A&M: Tech played A&M to two single-digit contests in the regular season and they proved against Kansas that they could catch fire. After their win against Missouri, A&M will be in if they avoid defeat here.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Minnesota

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Western Kentucky

If you have questions, comments, uninhibited hatred, or think I really need some sleep, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, GONZAGA (WCC)
6: Marquette, California, Texas, Arizona State
7: Butler, Tennessee (SEC), Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Penn State, Michigan
10: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), Oklahoma State, UNLV (MWC), Wisconsin
11: Creighton, Arizona, St. Mary’s, WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt)
12: Minnesota, Ohio State, Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA)
13: CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON), NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), Portland State (Big Sky)
15: Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Cleveland State, Portland State, Chattanooga
OUT: Auburn, Weber State, Charleston

Last Four In: Creighton, Minnesota, St. Mary’s, Ohio State
Last Four Out: Auburn, Kansas State, New Mexico, Providence
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
Horizon: 2/10
MVC: 2/10
SEC: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

Did You Know ... The RPI Edition

How many Big Ten teams are in the RPI Top 19?
1 -- Michigan State (6)

How many ACC teams are in the RPI Top 19?
5 -- Duke (2), UNC (3), Wake Forest (10), Florida State (16), Clemson (19)

How many Big East teams are in the RPI Top 19?
5 -- Pittsburgh (1), UConn (4), Louisville (9), Villanova (14), Syracuse (17)

Which teams have 7 RPI Top 50 wins or more?
Michigan State (12), Pittsburgh (9), Oklahoma (9), Kansas (9), Louisville (8), UConn (8), Illinois (8), Duke (7), Tennessee (7)

Which RPI Top 80 teams in at-large bid contention are 3 or more games under .500 against the RPI Top 50?
Oklahoma State (3-9)
West Virginia (3-7)
Ohio State (5-8)
Wisconsin (4-9)
Temple (1-5)
Florida (2-6)
South Carolina (1-5)
Miami-FL (2-7)
USC (2-8)
Tulsa (2-6)
Virginia Tech (2-8)
Auburn (2-5)
Maryland (3-8)
Northwestern (6-9)
Notre Dame (3-11)

Does Utah's gaudy #11 RPI factor in all of their results?
NO! The Utah RPI does not factor in a home defeat Division II Southwest Baptist, which would likely drop the Utes' rating to at least the 20s.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 9, 2009

Let’s call this the best 34 at-large team edition. After agonizing over including an unprecedented 8th team from the Big Ten, I wilted and included Ohio State over Kansas State, who may earn an at-large bid without winning in the Big XII Tournament (likely versus Texas). Do I think that the Big Ten will carry 8 bids on Selection Sunday? Not really. However, for this last week, I am going to let the basketball do the talking. The week that just ended has been like reading tea leaves through a thick London fog.

Among the top seeds, Louisville replaced Duke on the 1 line. Why? Louisville won the Big East outright and finished 2-1 against the teams who have double byes in the Big East Tournament. It’s all about who you have beaten, and where and when you beat them. When you put that together, Louisville is a top 4 team. If one of the top 3 Big East teams do not make the semifinals and Michigan State or Wake Forest win their conference tournaments, then they may steal the final #1 seed.

Beyond determining the final at-large bids, Championship Week will have an immense say in seed lines 4 through 8, which is as settling as a bad hairpiece. At this juncture, I am projecting that 22 at-large bids have been locked up, leaving 12 bids for the taking. Among our last 12 in are 5 (count ‘em, 5) Big Ten teams! If Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State lose in succession coupled with a Notre Dame or a Georgetown making the Big East semis, then we may see as few as 5 teams in from the Big Ten. Stranger things have happened.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due To Seeding Conflicts?
Marquette

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Butler

If you have questions, comments, or uninhibited hatred, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, Butler (Horizon)
6: Marquette, California, Gonzaga, Texas
7: Tennessee (SEC), Arizona State, Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, St. Mary’s (WCC), Penn State
10: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Wisconsin
11: Michigan, UNLV (MWC), Creighton, Ohio State
12: Utah St. (WAC), Arizona, Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), VCU (CAA), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Weber State (Big Sky), Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit)
15: Charleston (Southern), Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy)
16: RADFORD(Big South), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Texas A&M, Michigan, Arizona, Northern Iowa, Binghamton, Charleston, Radford, Morehead State
OUT: Kansas State, Providence, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Vermont, VMI, Tennessee-Martin

Last Four In: Creighton, Ohio State, Auburn, Arizona
Last Four Out: Kansas State, Providence, New Mexico, South Carolina
Next Four Out: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
West Coast: 2/9
MVC: 2/10
A-10: 2/14

Tournament Schedules for the Power Conferences

With the tournament matchups set for all of the power conferences, I have included the matchups and schedules below. Those games with clear bubble implications are in red font.

ACC (Georgia Dome -- Atlanta)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Miami, noon
Game 2: No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Boston College vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 5: No. 1 North Carolina vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, noon
Game 6: No. 4 Florida State vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Wake Forest vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Duke vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 1:30 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 4 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 1 p.m.

BIG EAST (MSG - New York City)

FIRST ROUND
Tuesday, March 10
Game 1: No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No. 16 DePaul, noon
Game 2: No. 12 Georgetown vs. No. 13 St. John's, 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 15 Rutgers, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 11 Seton Hall vs. No. 14 South Florida, 9 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 5: No. 8 Providence vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 6: No. 5 Marquette vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 7: No. 7 West Virginia vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 6 Syracuse vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 9: No. 1 Louisville vs. Game 5 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 10: No. 4 Villanova vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 11: No. 2 Pittsburgh vs. Game 7 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 12: No. 3 Connecticut vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 15: Game 13 winner vs. Game 14 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.

BIG TEN (Conseco Fieldhouse -- Indianapolis)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, noon
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, ESPN2, 5 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 4: No. 1 Michigan State vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 5: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Ohio State, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 Illinois vs. Game 2 winner, 6:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Purdue vs. Game 3 winner, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 1:40 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 4:05 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 10: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 3:30 p.m.

BIG 12 (Ford Center -- Oklahoma City)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Baylor, 12:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Colorado, 3 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Iowa State, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 5: No. 1 Kansas vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, 12:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Game 2 winner, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Missouri vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 9:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 6 p.m.

PAC-10 (Staples Center -- Los Angeles)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Oregon State vs. No. 9 Stanford, 9 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Oregon, 11:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 3: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 3 p.m.
Game 4: No. 1 Washington vs. Game 1 winner, 5:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 9 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 UCLA vs. Game 2 winner, 11:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 11:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 6 p.m.

SEC (St. Pete Times Forum -- Tampa)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: E4 Kentucky vs. W5 Ole Miss, 1 p.m.
Game 2: W3 Mississippi State vs. E6 Georgia, 3:15 p.m.
Game 3: W4 Alabama vs. E5 Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: E3 Florida vs. W6 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Friday, March 13
Game 5: W1 LSU vs. Game 1 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 6: E2 South Carolina vs. Game 2 winner, 3:15 p.m.
Game 7: E1 Tennessee vs. Game 3 winner, 7:30 p.m.
Game 8: W2 Auburn vs. Game 4 winner, 9:45 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN2, 1 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN2, 3:15 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 1 p.m.

Sunday's Running Bracket Blog

There are plenty of meaningful games starting with Purdue @ Michigan State. I will have a close eye on some other matchups taking place later today:

• Virginia Tech @ Florida State, 2pm
• Illinois State v. Northern Iowa (MVC Tournament Final), 205pm
• Old Dominion v. VCU (CAA Tournament Semifinal), 300pm -- These two schools hate each other with a passion unlike any other except for maybe ...
  
• Duke @ North Carolina, 400pm
• Northwestern @ Ohio State, 500pm
• Towson v. George Mason (CAA Tournament Semifinal), 530pm
• Clemson @ Wake Forest, 600pm
• Charleston v. Davidson (Southern Conference Tournament Semifinal), 600pm
• Portland v. St. Mary's (WCC Tournament Semifinal), 1130pm -- I will not watch this one, but a loss by St. Mary's may delay the posting of Monday's bracket projections.

* Michigan State put the chokehold on Purdue in the 2nd half and demonstrated why they have a legitimate chance at a #1 seed. Meanwhile, the Boilers have played themselves into a 7/8 seed. Though they lost two games without Robbie Hummel, this is who they are.

* #1 seed American squeaks by Army in the Patriot League, 61-60.

* While Tennessee is certainly in the NCAA Tournament, the unanticipated home loss to Alabama will have bearing on their seeding. Chances are that we will not see a SEC team on the top 6 seed lines.

* Right as Virginia Tech storms back into the game, Delaney and Allen get their 4th fouls.

* In a minute of watching the MVC Tournament Final, the lead has changed twice. Osiris Eldridge is scorching hot!

* VCU is struggling. Down 24-16 to their rival Old Dominion, Eric Maynor (3) and Gerald Lee (2) have combined for a total of five points.

* Congratulations to Northern Iowa, who survived an onslaught of deep shots from Illinois State to start the overtime session. They won 60-57 in the Lou.

* VT has lost, signifying that they must win two in Atlanta to be in (assuming the second will be against the ACC's top 3 teams). A tall order.

* Just received a text from Clement, who is at the CAA Tournament in Richmond. Joey Rodriguez has "countless" turnovers. In visiting the CAA website, I can now report that "countless" equals 2. You can also visit CAA Courtside for ... courtside chatter from the CAA Tournament. After a 30-point explosion yesterday, Gerald Lee has 2 points. VCU up 32-30 right before the under 16 in the second half.

* VCU defeats ODU. George Mason fans can watch the game and participate in a live blog here.

* Coach K is complaining, but what's new? UNC up 6 at the under 12 in the second half.

* UNC wins against Duke despite a lackluster defensive performance. Mason defeats Towson for the 15th straight time. Yes, 15 straight wins.

* For the second time in two days, a bid may be stolen from another conference. Charleston defeats Davidson for the second time. Congratulations to Bobby Cremins! That said, it makes the brackets that much tougher.

Saturday's Running Bracket Blog

* Preseason Automatic Bid Picks: 1 of 4
* Pre-Conference Tournament Automatic Bid Picks: 1 of 4

* Cornell was the first team to win an automatic bid. Radford outlasted VMI to take home the Big South crown. East Tennessee State triumphs in the A-Sun Final. It's a sad day when an OVC Tournament Final does not include Murray State. Nevertheless, we congratulate Morehead State, who are going back to the NCAA Tournament after a 25-year hiatus.

* Pitt's sweep of UConn will put the Panthers among the top two overall seeds. UConn will stay on the 1 line, likely in the #3 overall seed, if UNC beats Duke tomorrow. Staying at the top of the heap, Louisville, Kansas and Washington claim their conferences outright.

* Michigan just revived its season and Minnesota is back on the bubble. There will be a maximum of seven teams from the Big Ten. The Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis will determine the NCAA Tournament fate of as many as five teams, who are within half a game of .500 in conference play.

* Boston College, behind their 9-7 ACC record coupled with two wins over teams on my top seed line, is in the tournament for certain.

* C'est la vie, Cincinnati and Vermont. It was nice knowing you. Kentucky continued digging itself six feet deep. Maryland did not help themselves out after blowing a 13-point lead at rival UVa.

* Kansas State and South Carolina win games they absolutely could not lose. New Mexico continues to win, this time on the road against Wyoming. Rhode Island does not. I am anticipating that they will need to at least make the finals of the A-10 Tournament in order to earn at-large consideration.

* Syracuse starts strong (OOC wins against Kansas on a semi-away floor and at Memphis) and ends strong (wins last four in Big East to finish 11-7 in conference). Kinda like an Oreo with the orange creme that no one likes. Could Marquette fall to the 6 line?

* Texas A&M scores one of the biggest wins of the day against Missouri and they hop Kansas State and will hop Oklahoma State unless they score the master stroke against Oklahoma in the bedlam game. Though lower in magnitude, Auburn scores a comfortable win against LSU. That's 8 of their last 9, so of which are against clear tournament-caliber competition.

* Penn State lost a double overtime decision at Iowa, but they should be in the tournament. It will definitely hurt their seeding and at least push them into the 8/9 game (or worse).

* Creighton has been thumped by Illinois State, who will face Northern Iowa for the automatic bid. This was Creighton's first loss since January 17. They are likely to remain in the field of 65, but their bid may be stolen next week.

UPDATE: Creighton has suddenly become huge fans of Butler (a winner tonight against Wright State), Gonzaga, and the winner of Portland/Pepperdine (faces St. Mary's).

* Who's watching the WBC? Neither am I.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 7, 2009

If you were a bubble team and you had a game this week, there’s a good chance you fell out as a result of losing a game that you should have won. Among those ranks were Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame and Arizona – all of whom lost games that they either should have won or absolutely needed to. Replacing them are Oklahoma State and St. Mary’s (welcome back, Patty Mills), and two teams seemingly chosen from out of thin air – Providence and Auburn. The argument in favor of Auburn is their surge to 2nd place in the SEC West gives them momentum leading into their game against LSU as well as the SEC Tournament. (Among the automatic bids, I was forced to discard Belmont after their loss to East Tennessee State.)

On the cusp of the tournament are Texas A&M, Rhode Island and South Carolina. The Aggies are on a roll, having won their last 5, but how many of them were they not supposed to win? A win versus Missouri assuredly makes the win streak legitimate and puts them in the field (for now). The same can be said about Rhode Island, though they lack a marquee win (best win: @ Penn State). As for South Carolina, 10-6 would have been good enough had they defeated Tennessee at home on Thursday. Without that win, the ‘Cocks are a big 0-fer against the RPI Top 50.

When you think of the first 12 teams out of my field and who can benefit the most, look no further than the Cougars of Washington State. If they somehow defeat their rivals (Washington) on the road, they will have claimed road victories against the 1st, 2nd and 4th place teams in the conference – all of whom are unquestioned tournament teams. Despite their 13 losses, no other team on the bubble can stake that claim. Meanwhile, Michigan (@ Minnesota) and Northwestern (@ Ohio State) may knock Ohio State from the 7th spot with road victories.

Who Slid One Seed Line?
Kansas State, St. Mary’s


Who Benefited by One Seed Line?
Providence, Virginia Tech

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)
2: Louisville, Michigan State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big XII), Wake Forest
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Xavier (A-10), Clemson, Marquette, Missouri
5: Florida State, Illinois, California, Butler (Horizon)
6: Tennessee (SEC), Syracuse, Gonzaga, UCLA
7: Penn State, Purdue, Boston College, Texas
8: West Virginia, LSU, Arizona State, Utah
9: Wisconsin, Creighton (MVC), BYU, Minnesota
10: Ohio State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), UNLV (MWC), Dayton
11: Providence, Maryland, Davidson (Southern), Virginia Tech
12: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Utah St. (WAC), St. Mary’s (WCC)
13: Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Vermont (America East), VCU (CAA)
14: North Dakota State (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), American (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: CORNELL (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), VMI (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast),
16: E. Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC)


IN: Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, Providence, Auburn, E. Tennessee State
OUT: Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame, Arizona, Belmont

Last Four In: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Providence, Auburn
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Arizona
Next Four Out: Michigan, Georgetown, Northwestern, Miami-FL
Next Four Out: Washington State, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Tulsa

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12
Big Ten: 7/11
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 4/10
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
A-10: 2/14
West Coast: 2/9

Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Late last night/early this morning, Clement posed a series of questions. Tonight, I provide answers to those questions that surround the NCAA Tournament.

"Quin Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher.

Q: With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?
A: For starters, I projected Oklahoma was the #6 overall team in the Big XII despite projecting them to win their conference tournament. Why is this the case? They lack the quality wins that the top 3 Big East and top 2 ACC teams have. Not to mention, Oklahoma has often played to the level of their competition, needing to pull away late in games against inferior competition. While "style points" get scrutinized more often in college football, it will be difficult to argue that OU has a stronger resume than the aforementioned teams, as well as Michigan State and Wake Forest.

"Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own).
Q: Is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?
A: Yes. It was already going to be tough sledding for Marquette with James. Without James, Jerel McNeal is a shell of himself. In two road games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, he has shot 11-for-43 from the field.

"Really an Upset?"
Q: Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?
A: Because of their horrible strength of schedule, I have not drank the LSU Kool-Aid yet. Don't get me wrong, they have some quality guard play and Trent Johnson is an excellent Xs and Os coach. That said, the Purdue's loss was more surprising, because I thought they were turning the corner. I thought wrong. That Kevin Coble is some player!

"Rambling Wreck!"
Q: Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?
A: Absolutely. Miami lost a must-win game against an ill-disciplined yet talented Georgia Tech team. It was a must-win game because the value of their best OOC win is decreasing by the minute. It's not quite over for Miami because bubble teams continue to lose and they can make up plenty of ground during Championship Week.

"It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Q: Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?
A: First off, thank you, Boyz II Men. Second, the Florida/Kentucky tussle this weekend is an at-large bid elimination game. Third, I think it is possible for the winner to have a chance an at-large bid if they make the SEC Tournament Final.

"Mired in the Muck"
Q: Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Siena, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or, was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?
A: It's too early to say. These smaller tournaments must first happen, but Creighton and Siena are definitely benefitting while St. Mary's and Davidson are not far behind. Other potential winners are Rhode Island and Washington State. Both are peaking at the right time and have resumes that look better with every passing loss by every bubble team.

***Bonus Question***
"Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan.
Q: What are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.
A: Here are my thoughts ...
Penn State: IN
Wisconsin: IN
Ohio State: IN
Minnesota: IN
Michigan: OUT
Northwestern: OUT

Further Proof Describing How Little We Know

If last night taught us something, teams on the right side of the bubble were losers and teams on the wrong side were winners.

There were some crushing losses ...

• Kentucky loses AT HOME to Georgia ... get that resume ready, Billy Gillispie!
• Miami loses to Georgia Tech. 6-9 is not good enough and neither is 7-9 with the away win at Kentucky diminishing value by the nanosecond
• Florida loses to Mississippi State ... a second straight NIT trip. Clement can tell you all about how that feels. At least, the Gators have football. Forever.
• UAB loses by double digits to UTEP
  

Some lost opportunities ...

• Va Tech loses to UNC
• Houston fights hard, but comes up short against Memphis

Even off of the bubble, some teams lost a seed line with unexpected losses ...

• Northwestern upsets Purdue on the road, making it two away wins against the Big Ten elite (is that an oxymoron?).
• LSU loses a home decision against Vanderbilt, who shot 52% from the field.
• Kansas gets thrashed on senior night against the Ragin' Voskuhls!
  
• Boston College loses a close one at NC State.

And others seizing the moment or just plain taking care of business ...

• Mizzou and Pitt scoring big victories adding to their resumes ... is Duke now the 4th best team as some dude noted on Monday which was met by criticism.
  
• UNLV, BYU, A&M, WVU, Tulsa and San Diego State all won games they were supposed to win.
• Minnesota all but confirmed their ticket to the Big Dance with a 10-0 run to end the game against Wisconsin.
  

This is March Madness. Two weeks early. Savor it.

10 Questions to the Editor - Bracket-Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Pay reads my thoughts sometimes. Probably not vice versa though.

After 3 successful weeks - and just about 10 days until Selection Sunday - I decided to disturb Pay's week and throw out a pick-six of questions (of course, you know that means SEVEN) after three nights of pre-March Madness.

Don't worry, we'll be back this weekend too.

Yep, we know TO got released. But we're here to talk brackets. Not about his quarterback. In fact, we knew it when it was reported at midnight by Michael Smith on Sportscenter. Yeah, what!?!?!
Credit: Millions of Hilarious Google Image Searches

1) "Quinn Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher. With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?

2) "Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own). Question is: is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?

3) "Really an Upset?"
Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?

4) "Rambling Wreck!"
Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?

5) "It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?

6) "Mired in the Muck"
Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Sienna, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?

***Bonus Question***
7) "Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan. Problem is, what are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.

Quote of the night: Shawn Taggart of Memphis.
“I feel like a lot of people out there disrespect our conference,” Taggart said. “A lot of people act like it’s the worst conference in the country. To keep winning like this is a big deal. I’m sure if you put North Carolina in this conference, they wouldn’t go undefeated. It’s very tough.”

Oh yeah, here's a clip to make you smile (especially YOU Pay).
Credit to Dan B via YouTube on this gem.

March Madness: Examining the Top of the Class

While it’s unrealistic to pretend there are only 4 finite teams who will contend for the national championship, it’s round enough a number to work with.

Below are (my) the 4 teams, highlighting one key performer - you might not automatically assume - whom might just be cutting down a pair of nets come March Madness.

Yes, that’s 1 for going to the Final Four and 1 after the National Championship game. Duh.

While these are FAR from role players, they are also not the “it” guys…yet.

And no, I'm still not looking for the next Josh Pace. Or am I???


UCONN Huskies

Senior leadership, in the frontcourt, is highly underrated.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Jerome Dyson’s injury is HUGE news for the #1 team in the country. Obviously, Clement. However, the recent play of Hasheem Thabeet (minus against a guy named Blair) and depth in the backcourt (Austrie, Price, & Walker) doesn’t mean UCONN is up the creek without a paddle. In fact, it might be the performance of leading scorer and 34 minute/per game power forward Jeff Adrien that propels UCONN to a third national championship.

Why? Adrien is often forgotten on the front line due largely to Thabeet; however, he’s a senior with a ton of experience, an affinity to bang, and offers up plenty of mismatches in the post. He would also draw assignments including Hansbrough, Griffin, Henderson, and Clark in the post.


North Carolina Tar Heels

If Ellington can draw extra defenders, UNC may be unguardable.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Hansbrough is the stud, Green is the glue, and Lawson is the dynamic playmaker. So why am I calling on Wayne Ellington? The former Mr. Basketball in Texas has been way too up-and-down this season. In fact, I consider him an outright top 10-recruit B-U-S-T. However, if he can go Ben Gordon on the field during the NCAA Tournament, he becomes a matchup nightmare and makes me settle up to dine on some crow.

Why? While UNC is far from a 3-point shooting team (which is a GOOD thing in Williams’ system), Ellington can put up 4 or 5 treys in less than 10 minutes and really deflate teams attempting to score with the Heels. He also afford the Heels a chance to break out of the funks many half-court defenses have attempted to put them in.


Oklahoma Sooners

Pay brought up to me the Terminator's brother; however, I took a different route.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Blake Griffin, as evident yet again after a 40 point, 23 rebound performance against Texas Tech, is going to be the most talented performer come tournament time. The concussion won’t linger either. Don’t worry about the Terminator. However, that didn’t exactly work out for the likes of fellow Big XII studs Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley (combined 1-2) in recent tournaments. Fortunately for Griffin, he has a talented roster surrounding him and a coach (while very young) who is pushing the right buttons; especially in Big XII play. Enter into the equation a pair of guards, Willie Warren and Tony Crocker, who w ill likely each need a pair of games for Oklahoma – while ranked #2 in the country – to appear to be the real thing. They couldn’t carry the Sooners sans-Griffin against Texas & Kansas, but with the big man back…they can be vital parts, even if they aren’t legitimate #1-scoring options.

Why? If neither can become a legitimate 18-20 point scorer come tourney time opposite Griffin, Oklahoma appears one of the “easier” 1-seeds to draw. Yeah, I said it.


Pittsburgh Panthers

Pitt's "Big 3" (Fields, Young, & Blair) can't do it alone. They'll need a Jermaine Dixon-type role player to help put them over the edge to cut down a pair of nets.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

DeJuan Blair and the Panthers can’t afford to make the same mistake they always seem to (yet nobody every mentions); specifically, putting too much stock in the Big East Tournament and coming out flat in the second weekend of the real March Madness. Perhaps if all there games could be in Madison Square Garden, the Panthers would have made at least one Final Four – or an Elite Eight no less - over the past decade. Perhaps with enough talent now – especially with NBA-ready Sam Young and 7-assist-a-game Levance Fields – Jamie Dixon finally has his ticket to reach a Final Four. I still am skeptical because of their reliance on the aforementioned conference tournament, as well as lacking a sharpshooter from beyond the 3-point line, and Blair’s ability to pile up fouls and “unclog” the post (while on the bench). Enter into the equation three names: Brad Wanamaker, Jermaine Dixon, and Tyrell Biggs. All three need to be that “extra” option – whether starting or off the bench – who can provide more than energy & foul relief (which Pitt will need with non-Big East refs). The real key is hitting open shots (particularly 3s) and allowing the Panthers to accumulate early leads, thus putting less pressure on Blair to stay in the game.

Why? Without them, Pitt is vulnerable as a bruising team who might run into a Curry, Harden, Delaney, McClinton, Calathes, or even a (homer pick) Maynor before the end of the second weekend. One shooter can put the Panthers into an offensive battle, which isn’t their forte necessarily.


Just for fun, here’s a list of some other “names” to consider…

"The Colonel" will need his senior guard to defer far more than take over.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Louisville’s up-and-down-to-the-extreme Edgar Sosa. Especially in the closing minutes of tight games.

Memphis’s Shawn Taggart seems to have all the pieces; yet, I remain as skeptical as ever. As long as he lives in the paint – and away from the longball – he offers up plenty-of-athleticism-and-difficult-to-matchup-with-size to bring on one key word: mismatch.

Duke’s is-he-starting-or-more-effective-off-the-bench Greg Paulus. Especially if Duke isn’t hitting its threes early on and its opponent is. In fact, nobody can save Duke if THAT happens. And it will…

(Mistake) Wake Forest’s phenomenal-freshman–who-does-more-without-the-ball-in-his-hands-on-offense-than-with-it Al Farouq-Amin. Especially if Jeff Teague isn’t decisive down the stretch with the basketball. This team is WAY too average the past four weeks.

Michigan State’s I-turn-over-the-ball-far-more-often-than-I-reward-teammates-in-the-post sophomore guard Durrell Summers. Especially since the dynamic sixth man might see more minutes than most starters for Izzo’s Spartans. Lucas better get healthy, too.

…sorry, I’ll try and find a West Coast school…

UCLA’s sensational-freshmen-who-needs-to-boost-his-draft-stock-ASAP Jrue Holliday, who appears unwilling to take big shots – especially inside the 3-point line – in the closing minutes of game. Especially when Collison needs to kick it out to a perimeter option.

Sorry Marquette, Clemson, Villanova, Missouri, Xavier, LSU, Butler, Kansas, Arizona State, and Gonzaga…you just don’t make the cut…yet.

Pay's brackets definitely got a shakeup (or two) after last night's hiccups.
Just like Jimmy Rollings, if you wanna be a champion, you gotta want it!

Desperation is a Stinky Cologne

Georgetown and Cincinnati confirmed that notion this evening.

After holding a firm 15-point lead in the Garden, Georgetown blew it. Plain and simple. Though they were hard done by a timeout that should not have been granted and a foul that was not in the last 15 seconds of regulation, it never should have even been a game at that juncture. Three letters summarize my thoughts. N-I-T. JT3 should pay back his salary a la Bob Knight. His players looked clueless and underprepared in the closing minutes.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State won a must-win game against fellow bubble team Kansas State behind the leadership of senior guard Byron Eaton. 15 for 15 from the charity stripe. 'Nuff said.

At Cameron Indoor, Duke was behind for much of the night but they seem to be in firm position with under a minute left behind some hot shooting by Kyle Singler. In an amazing development, Leonard Hamilton is still wearing his tie.

Also, Maryland, Ohio State, Utah and Syracuse are knotted up in close games, all with severe at-large bid implications.

Our Time Is Now: ACC Breakdown and pre-Tournament Forecasting

A few nights ago, I broke down the Big East and predicted what each non-lock Big East team still vying for an at-large bid needed to do in order to dance in two weeks. Today, it’s the ACC’s turn.

To date, I posit that no less than five ACC teams have punched their ticket for The Big Dance and no more than three teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at the ACC Tournament in Atlanta. That leaves four teams vying for at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am once again using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.

IN: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson
OUT: NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
NOT YET IN: Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami-FL

Boston College 20-9 (8-6)
Key Wins: @ UNC, v. Duke, UAB (N), v. Florida State, @ Maryland, v. Providence
Remaining Games: @ NC State (L), v. Georgia Tech (W)
Projected Record: 21-10 (9-7)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-3

Maryland 18-10 (7-7)
Key Wins: v. UNC, Michigan State (N), Miami-FL (S), v. Virginia Tech, v. Michigan, v. Vermont
Remaining Games: v. Wake Forest (L), @ Virginia (W)
Projected Record: 19-11 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 1-6

Virginia Tech 17-11 (7-7)
Key Wins: @ Wake Forest, Clemson (AS), @ Miami-FL, Boston College (S)
Remaining Games: v. UNC (L), @ Florida State (L)
Projected Record: 17-13 (7-9)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-5

Miami 17-10 (6-8)
Key Wins: v. Wake Forest, Florida State (S), Boston College (2), Maryland (S)
Remaining Games: @ Georgia Tech (W), v. NC State (W)
Projected Record: 19-10 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 4-5

As a result of this exercise, Boston College finishes 9-7, which ties them with Clemson; however, Clemson wins the head-to-head tie-breaker. That said, BC earns the 6th seed. Maryland takes the tie-breaker for 7th place over Miami by virtue of their win over North Carolina. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech would finish 7-9 (even though I think they will split their last two) and would face Miami in the 8/9 clash.

********

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

Boston College: Nothing (so long as they have 9 conference wins given their high number of quality wins)

Maryland: Win at least 1 game (likely versus NC State) and compete admirably against the #2 seed (likely Duke)

Miami: Win at least 1 game (likely versus Virginia Tech) and play like they belong in the NCAA Tournament against UNC

Virginia Tech: Win 1 game (likely versus Miami) and hope that no bids are stolen in the Horizon League, Conference USA, the Mountain West, the A-10 and the West Coast Conference. Also, Tech would definitely be in the NCAA Tournament with 2 wins (likely versus Miami and UNC).

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 2, 2009

If you did not realize yesterday, we have entered March and are less than two weeks (and counting) from Selection Sunday. Out of the many years I have done this exercise, this has been the toughest. Why? There is a higher number of teams among the Last Four In and the Last Eight Out who have signature wins. Simply look at some of the teams that our top 4 overall seeds have lost to (v. Georgetown, @ Maryland, @ Providence, @ Michigan) and you will begin to understand that the Tournament Selection Committee already has with 13 days of basketball yet to played.

At the top, I decided to elevate Duke based on two crucial road wins against teams that we have in the field. Though the officials made as many as three errors in the final four minutes (all favoring Duke) against Virginia Tech, this is an improved team with Elliott Williams as a starter. Louisville, who continues to rack up quality wins, inches closer to the #1 line, while Oklahoma is hurting badly in the style points department.

In the next two weeks, there will be heavy movement between the 4th and 9th seed lines, as many of these teams will face each other in the middle and latter stages of their conference tournaments. Meanwhile, nothing is shored up on the bubble. In a week that expected to see shrinkage in the number of teams vying for spots, we saw more teams join the fray. Though not in the field, Michigan, Providence, Oklahoma State and Washington State earned a closer look with some unexpected wins taking shape.

Normally, we look at the Last Four In. This time, let’s look at the Last Seven In, because that is when the headache of choosing these evenly matched teams begun.

* My 28th at-large bid, Virginia Tech, won a shocker at Littlejohn, and nearly overcame a horrible first 10 minutes against Duke to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. While only 7-7 and with bad losses against Seton Hall and Georgia, Tech has the look and feel of a tournament team, with road wins against Wake Forest and Clemson.

* My 29th at-large bid, Georgetown, added another quality win on a floor other than their own by defeating Villanova. This gave them a real chance at finishing 8-10 in the Big East, which would likely gain them the #11 seed in the Big East Tournament. Two wins, which is very possible, and they are in with no questions asked.

* My 30th at-large bid, Maryland, willed themselves to victory against NC State in a game they badly needed and that is the profile of a tournament team. Additionally, the Terrapins have elevated their play and now hold signature victories over two teams among my top 7 overall seeds. One point of information: Maryland’s inclusion meant that Miami would not be in the field as the ACC will not include a 9th team.

* My 31st at-large bid, Florida, is in a world of hurt. They have a weak SOS and their best win was against Washington on a neutral court in November. Two wins this week (see assumptions) and they have a puncher’s chance at the NCAA Tournament.

* My 32nd at-large bid, Notre Dame, is playing better despite not achieving results. If they defeat Villanova, then that gives them wins v. Louisville, Villanova, Texas (N), Georgetown, and @ Providence. All things considered, Mike Brey should consider investing in a tie. Seriously.

* My 33rd at-large bid, Arizona, disappointing this weekend in the Pacific Northwest. In a game that would have been an ornament on their resume, Arizona blew a double-digit second-half lead at Washington. That said, Arizona can keep its streak of tournament bids going, but they must first sweep Cal and Stanford. Good luck.

* My final at-large bid is Kansas State. Kansas State? If they can defeat Oklahoma State in Stillwater and do not slip up versus Colorado, they are certainly in, as that would give them a 10-6 clip with a split against Missouri and road wins against the #2-4 teams in the Big XII South.

As I said, this was the toughest Last Four Out decision that I have to make so far this season. As a result of unanticipated losses on Saturday and concern about how they will play in their remaining games, I omitted Kentucky and South Carolina, who both had little margin for error. As mentioned, not much separates those Last 7 In and the Last 9 Out (the 9th is Washington State).

Who Slid One Seed Line?
West Virginia, Penn State, Ohio State, Maryland

Who Benefited by One Seed Line?
Texas, Creighton, BYU, Florida

Key Assumptions This Week
* UConn wins at Pitt
* UNC defeats Duke
* Minnesota wins versus Michigan
* Virginia Tech splits against UNC (home) and Florida State (away)
* Georgetown sweeps St. John’s (away) and DePaul (home – does it matter?)
* Florida takes out Mississippi State in Starkville and Kentucky at home
* Notre Dame versus Villanova and St. John’s
* Arizona pulls out a Bay Area team sweep in Tucson
* Kansas State wins at least one of two at Oklahoma State and versus Colorado
* Maryland achieves a split versus Wake Forest and at Virginia

Next Update: Friday, March 6 (results ending Thursday, March 5)

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)
2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest
3: Kansas, Villanova, Clemson, Memphis (C-USA)
4: Marquette, Washington (PAC 10), Xavier (A-10), Illinois
5: Florida State, Missouri, Purdue, Arizona State
6: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, UCLA, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: California, Boston College, LSU (SEC), Texas
8: Wisconsin, Utah, West Virginia, Tennessee
9: Dayton, Minnesota, Creighton (MVC), BYU
10: Virginia Tech, Penn State, Davidson (Southern), Ohio State
11: Georgetown, Florida, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Notre Dame
12: UNLV (MWC), Maryland, Arizona, Kansas State
13: Utah State (WAC), Vermont (America East), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), VCU (CAA)
14: North Dakota State (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), American (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: Cornell (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), VMI (Big South), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Robert Morris (Northeast), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Kansas State
OUT: Kentucky, Miami-FL, South Carolina

Last Four In: Florida, Notre Dame, Arizona, Kansas State
Last Four Out: Miami, Kentucky, South Carolina, Michigan
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Providence, Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12
Big Ten: 7/11
Big East: 9/16
Pac-10: 5/10
Big XII: 5/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
A-10: 2/14

Hello, March!

A couple of months ago, I made a promise to do regular (daily) posts dedicated to college basketball. Unfortunately, the requirements for the day job over the last two months necessitated that I work beyond my reach and made my promise as earnest as Kenny Hasbrouck's 2-for-20 performance from the field on Friday night. I thank Clement for being the real thought leader behind this tiny operation over the last few months to keep us afloat.

That said, this project ended on Thursday night, I used Friday to recuperate and now I am back. Not to mention, it's March and I would have reached deep into the reserves regardless. Spanning the globe, I found this piece by Brian at The Bracket Project which uses a scoring rubric that seems vaguely familiar. This just in, I am average. Exactly zero standard deviations from the mean. Eat your heart out, Curtis from the Orlando Sentinel (-0.1 average variance)! Seriously, I am looking to enter the upper echelon of bracketologists; however, I stand by the fact that the teams I did not include in the field (Oregon and South Alabama) had no right being in the NCAA Tournament.

The real reason I am writing to you today is talk about the marriage between college basketball and television. If you ever doubted this, just take a gander at my local CBS TV affiliate's schedule.

12pm Marquette @ Louisville
2pm Missouri @ Kansas
4pm Michigan State @ Illinois

How will Marquette handle the Louisville full-court pressure without their floor general? After a phenomenal February, will Missouri complete the season sweep of Kansas on the 1st of March? Which defense will reign supreme when two of the top 12 (adjusted defensive efficiency) face off in Champaign? All teams are ranked. All are on CBS. I rest my case.

Enjoy the bball!