InClement Weather: Opening Round Reactions [Part II of II]

Mid-day update.
We spoke earlier. You enjoyed it. Admit it.
Check the poll to the right of the page, too.

Villanova stormed past UCLA and never looked back. This being a home court game didn't hurt, but it didn't decide a thing either. Nevertheless, it's ridiculous the Wildcats played their opening round games on a court they hosted 4 teams at this season.

Memphis led from the start against an overmatched Maryland squad. Tyreke Evans had 13 points early and the entire Memphis roster got involved from start to beginning. Most impressive line? Antonio Anderson took 2 shots and dished out 11 assists. Perhaps this is a Final Four-caliber squad.

Three 5:00ish tipoffs underway.

LSU needs to work harder than UNC on both sides of the ball. Unlikely. Seeing Ty Lawson's face on the bench early was not a good sign for Tar Heel fans. Even if they would have 4 days off after a victory, Lawson will need to be 100% before the Final Four. The last 5 minutes of the first half may have decided things early on. LSU is simply not good enough to execute play-in and play-out against Roy's boys. Carolina closes the half on a 17-7 run after trailing (briefly) 20-19. I'll be interested to see a team who can get into the penalty as quickly as the Heels do. Nova perhaps?

Purdue started off red hot; however, Washington has righted the ship and got the deficit under double-digits. You blink and what you just said isn't so succinct. Purdue leads 39-28 at the half.

Oklahoma and Michigan are in a bit of a stalemate. No surprise with a Big Ten team involved. Somewhat surprisingly, Michigan leads 28-25. Could another Player of the Year be going out in the first weekend? Not so fast.

As for the 1st (aka "Opening") Round...

East Region

I'll take Travis Ford over Bruce Pearl any day. As for Eric Andrews. Well...
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Pittsburgh survived a scare from East Tennessee State 72-62. Honestly, you can realistically point to ETSU blowing this game with their wretched performance from the foul line (12-24). Meanwhile, if DeJuan Blair thinks he's gonna get away with being that physical in the second weekend...it ain't happening.

Oklahoma State, coached by Travis Ford, narrowly defeated Tennessee 77-75 in potentially the opening weekend's most nailbiting game. The Vols took a late lead on a clutch 3-point play from Tyler Smith, only to lose it (and the game) to Byron Eaton's heroics on his own 3-point play with less than 10 seconds to go. Seriously, hasn't Eaton been at OSU for a decade? On another note, Bruce Pearl is becoming a bit of underachiever considering the talent he recruits.

Wisconsin upset Florida State 61-59. "James" Toney Douglas and the Noles had the lead far too often down the stretch, even by 3 in the final minute, to lose this game. Give all credit to Bo Ryan and the Badgers. Hughes is a clutch performer, plain and simple.

Xavier took out Portland State, mainly in the second half, 77-59. It's highly understated how much Xavier lost last season and how talented they remain. Remember that Greg Oden all-out shove may have cost this team a Final Four last season.

UCLA snuck past VCU 65-64 in the closing seconds. VCU play uninspired basketball for 35 minutes and in the end, Maynor seemed more worried about drawing a foul than making the winning shot. I was there and it was painful. Meanwhile, UCLA can thank way too many clutch free throws for their victory.

Villanova withstood American to win 80-67. American was up 14 in the second half and then got stuck on 55. Garrison Carr channeled Stephen Curry quite well for 15 minutes. Jeff Jones keeping Carr out far too long - 4 fouls or not - and the foul situation itself doomed the Eagles. How Villanova was in the double bonus at the 14-minute mark is unforgivable. Meanwhile, they might as well have played this game at the Villanova dorms to make it any more un-neutral. A disgrace by the tournament committee. Disgrace!!!

Texas coasted past Minnesota 76-62. With all the talent on the Longhorns roster, they will not surprise anyone to give Duke one hell of a game.

Duke stormed past Kornheiser's Bighamton squad. No comments necessary.

South Region

It's not just Blake (front and center) who needs to be a manchild in the coming games. Brother Taylor - who Pay and I often disagree a lot about - better be more than a body double who cleans up misses after his brother is triple-teamed.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

North Carolina played sans-Lawson and did what you expect great teams to do: destroy 16 seeds 101-58.

LSU had the athletes and the game plan to take out Butler 75-71. So they did.

Western Kentucky "upset" Illinois (how undeserving a 5-seed were they?) 76-72. Bruce Weber got the most out of this team; however, they were clearly not going very far this year in the tournament.

Gonzaga pulled away from a pesky Akron squad to earn a 77-64 victory. The key for the Zags is not showing up in a potential Sweet Sixteen showdown with the Tar Heels. Instead, it's making the Sweet Sixteen and then worrying about their performance against the South region's top-seed.

Arizona State took an early lead and Dionte Christmas the Temple Owls never caught up, losing 66-57. James Harden was ice cold - only 9 points - but the Sun Devils got a dynamic first-half from Derek Glasser and stellar performance from post-man Jeff Pendergraph.

Syracuse was up 20-4 early and cruised to as easy a first-round victory as Coach Boeheim could've asked for 59-45. SDSU shot 0-15 from behind the arc to start the game. Impressive. Johnny Flynn is still searching for his legs, but at least the Orange have their first tournament win since 2004.

Michigan held on to defeat Clemson 62-59. With two NBA-caliber players on the floor (specifically Manny Harris), the Wolverines were bumpy at best in the second-half, yet held on for their first W in the NCAA Tournament in nearly 11 years. No kudos for Clemson's Terrence Oglesby, whose costly ejection was, well, costly.

Oklahoma waxed Morgan State. Sadly, what ended up being most memorable for this game was the "flipping" of Blake Griffin. What a way for the team to represent themselves in the tournament for the first time ever.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend slate. See you Monday!
But before I go...here's a classic Bruce Pearl/Eric Andrews moment.

Saturday Afternoon Running Blog

Check out Pay's latest brackets.
Jim Calhoun haters, rejoice!!!

7:00 pm

The afternoon becomes the evening...

The health of Robbie Hummel is much more important than Purdue winning tomorrow afternoon.
It wouldn't hurt the Boilermakers though.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

* #1 UNC goes down to Florida State in a great game. Derwin Kitchen sinks two clutch free throws and Ellington/Green misfire on late three-point attempts. Two games to remember for Kitchen in back-to-back-days (see: game winning layup against Georgia Tech in the closing seconds). Toney Douglas ia an amazing talent; however, he's very fortunate to be surrounded by a rock solid sidekick. Fear not Tar Heel fans, you're going to get a #1 seed. Your team more than earned it. In fact, you'll still be in Greensboro. Start snapping up tickets soon.

* Meanwhile, the Seminoles will meet the Blue Devils of DOOK tomorrow afternoon. I just might post a few questions tonight to Pay concerning the ACC Tournament Championship. Although I gotta wonder out loud: how many Seminole fans thought they'd win the ACC Championship...in basketball. By the way, the Dookies won't get a #1-seed, even if they wack the 'Noles AND the Orange defeat the Cardinals in MSG. Why? Duke needed to beat UNC to get the 1-seed, despite an uber-impressive resume. Disagree?

* Michigan State lost out on their only chance at a 1-seed, further dare-I-say-guaranteeing Louisville a chance to secure a #1-seed tonight at MSG. Pitino's boys are HEAVILY favored. For good reason, too. Ohio State just moved up a line or two as well, far away from the bubble.

* Is LSU trying to get the SEC a third bid by losing to Mississippi State? No. Is LSU as likely a top seed as there is to be upset VERY early next weekend? Yes. No wait. YES! The Bulldogs will match up with the Vols, who may have ended the season for the Tigers of Auburn. Somewhere, Chris Porter isn't happy. I remain unfazed altogether about SEC basketball.

* Temple leads Duquesne 42-37 at the half. Both teams aren't "stealing" bids. Why? Because every team on the bubble has dug their own grave. Two times over.

* Purdue defeated Illinois, avoiding their third straight loss. That's as sexy as a one-liner you'll get from a Big Ten result.

* Missouri leads Baylor by 4 points at the half. It's fun watching the Bears pull upset after upset, unlike Georgia last season. That team was very very bad, while I believe Baylor is a good team.

* Arizona State leads USC by 15 at the break. While USC worked their way closer to the bubble, an ugly loss here proves that the Trojans aren't going to be "in".

* San Diego State is one of the roughest bubble teams to gauge I've seen in the last 3-4 years. They can avoid any conflict and a sleepless night if they upset the Utes of Utah tonight. Will they? No. Why? To make the life of the Selection Committee more difficult. Seriously? No. But it sounds better, doesn't it?

* Also out west, in the WAC, Utah State could become the first 27-win team to NOT make the tournament. How? They might lose the automatic bid to mainstay Nevada. What changed the Wolfpack's season? Please don't mention the ,"Coach's ejection that led to a Friday night Bracketbuster weekend against VCU and my boy Eric Maynor who was too tired to carry his entire team who stood around and watched him play and wouldn't step up and make even one shot on the road, although I'm glad they did; especially Larry Sanders in the CAA Championship Game." Call it a hunch, but I'm predicting a Wolfpack upset. Why? To be a pain in every bracketologist's butt. Sorry Pay.

* There's also that aforementioned primetime game involving the "Overtime Orange" and the talented Cardinals of Louisville. Terrance Williams is licking his chops; meanwhile, Johnny Flynn and Eric "K-Fed" Devendorf better be ready for another 40-minute dogfight. Or will it be 40-minutes plus? You decide.

Back later. Maybe Pay can interject more sensible bracket banter.

3:30 pm

Coach Cal and Memphis cut down their yearly nets at the Conference USA Tournament.
Might as well be called the "Memphis Tigers Challenge".
By the way, could Memphis inch closer to a 1-seed if Louisville was upset by the (insert: tired) Orange?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

* Mississippi State joined Baylor (Big XII) & USC (Pac-10) as "Georgia's of 2009", aka teams trying to "steal bids with spots in their respective championship games". Although let it be know that Georgia was horrific last year and their coach was going to be fired any second. The Bulldogs and Trojans largely underachieved this season, thus far.

Note: Nobody should feel bad for any of the bubble teams. Nobody - even the most bleeding heart Maryland fans (who remember, lost to UVA on Sunday) - will be robbed of a birth this year.

* Pay proves to me yet again why he's the "bracket master", proving to me why many experts - including himself - has Arizona (with 3 wins against Conference Champions - Washington, Kansas, & Gonzaga) outside the bubble.

* Tony Kornheiser can rejoice as Binghamton is in the big dance, via the American East automatic bid. I'm always happy when Vermont is absent.

* Memphis keeps on winning. By a lot. There should be no debate about them being a 1 or 2 seed. If they are tired of the disrespect Conference USA is getting, leave the conference or share the wealth of your recruiting classes.

* Ohio State is ending the argument for Michigan State to earn a #1-seed, leading the Spartans 69-58 during the under-4 timeout at Conseco Field House. The Buckeyes will also lock down a spot in the Big Dance, recently a 10-seed with a few lingering questions in today's bracket from Pay.

* Florida State and UNC are enjoying the game of the afternoon. Psycho T with a rare "frustration foul" to earn his 4th. He won't earn a 5th. Mark it down. Seminole fans have been asking for the calls to even out; however, the refs have been steady. Toney Douglas is a baller, folks. This kid could carry this underrated team DEEP into the tournament. Welcome Wayne Ellington to playing well in a big time game. Yes, the Heels are still sans-Lawson.

* Auburn and Tennessee are prepared to tip off. If the Tigers want to go dancing, they need to pull off the upset.

March Madness: Examining the Top of the Class

While it’s unrealistic to pretend there are only 4 finite teams who will contend for the national championship, it’s round enough a number to work with.

Below are (my) the 4 teams, highlighting one key performer - you might not automatically assume - whom might just be cutting down a pair of nets come March Madness.

Yes, that’s 1 for going to the Final Four and 1 after the National Championship game. Duh.

While these are FAR from role players, they are also not the “it” guys…yet.

And no, I'm still not looking for the next Josh Pace. Or am I???


UCONN Huskies

Senior leadership, in the frontcourt, is highly underrated.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Jerome Dyson’s injury is HUGE news for the #1 team in the country. Obviously, Clement. However, the recent play of Hasheem Thabeet (minus against a guy named Blair) and depth in the backcourt (Austrie, Price, & Walker) doesn’t mean UCONN is up the creek without a paddle. In fact, it might be the performance of leading scorer and 34 minute/per game power forward Jeff Adrien that propels UCONN to a third national championship.

Why? Adrien is often forgotten on the front line due largely to Thabeet; however, he’s a senior with a ton of experience, an affinity to bang, and offers up plenty of mismatches in the post. He would also draw assignments including Hansbrough, Griffin, Henderson, and Clark in the post.


North Carolina Tar Heels

If Ellington can draw extra defenders, UNC may be unguardable.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Hansbrough is the stud, Green is the glue, and Lawson is the dynamic playmaker. So why am I calling on Wayne Ellington? The former Mr. Basketball in Texas has been way too up-and-down this season. In fact, I consider him an outright top 10-recruit B-U-S-T. However, if he can go Ben Gordon on the field during the NCAA Tournament, he becomes a matchup nightmare and makes me settle up to dine on some crow.

Why? While UNC is far from a 3-point shooting team (which is a GOOD thing in Williams’ system), Ellington can put up 4 or 5 treys in less than 10 minutes and really deflate teams attempting to score with the Heels. He also afford the Heels a chance to break out of the funks many half-court defenses have attempted to put them in.


Oklahoma Sooners

Pay brought up to me the Terminator's brother; however, I took a different route.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Blake Griffin, as evident yet again after a 40 point, 23 rebound performance against Texas Tech, is going to be the most talented performer come tournament time. The concussion won’t linger either. Don’t worry about the Terminator. However, that didn’t exactly work out for the likes of fellow Big XII studs Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley (combined 1-2) in recent tournaments. Fortunately for Griffin, he has a talented roster surrounding him and a coach (while very young) who is pushing the right buttons; especially in Big XII play. Enter into the equation a pair of guards, Willie Warren and Tony Crocker, who w ill likely each need a pair of games for Oklahoma – while ranked #2 in the country – to appear to be the real thing. They couldn’t carry the Sooners sans-Griffin against Texas & Kansas, but with the big man back…they can be vital parts, even if they aren’t legitimate #1-scoring options.

Why? If neither can become a legitimate 18-20 point scorer come tourney time opposite Griffin, Oklahoma appears one of the “easier” 1-seeds to draw. Yeah, I said it.


Pittsburgh Panthers

Pitt's "Big 3" (Fields, Young, & Blair) can't do it alone. They'll need a Jermaine Dixon-type role player to help put them over the edge to cut down a pair of nets.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

DeJuan Blair and the Panthers can’t afford to make the same mistake they always seem to (yet nobody every mentions); specifically, putting too much stock in the Big East Tournament and coming out flat in the second weekend of the real March Madness. Perhaps if all there games could be in Madison Square Garden, the Panthers would have made at least one Final Four – or an Elite Eight no less - over the past decade. Perhaps with enough talent now – especially with NBA-ready Sam Young and 7-assist-a-game Levance Fields – Jamie Dixon finally has his ticket to reach a Final Four. I still am skeptical because of their reliance on the aforementioned conference tournament, as well as lacking a sharpshooter from beyond the 3-point line, and Blair’s ability to pile up fouls and “unclog” the post (while on the bench). Enter into the equation three names: Brad Wanamaker, Jermaine Dixon, and Tyrell Biggs. All three need to be that “extra” option – whether starting or off the bench – who can provide more than energy & foul relief (which Pitt will need with non-Big East refs). The real key is hitting open shots (particularly 3s) and allowing the Panthers to accumulate early leads, thus putting less pressure on Blair to stay in the game.

Why? Without them, Pitt is vulnerable as a bruising team who might run into a Curry, Harden, Delaney, McClinton, Calathes, or even a (homer pick) Maynor before the end of the second weekend. One shooter can put the Panthers into an offensive battle, which isn’t their forte necessarily.


Just for fun, here’s a list of some other “names” to consider…

"The Colonel" will need his senior guard to defer far more than take over.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Louisville’s up-and-down-to-the-extreme Edgar Sosa. Especially in the closing minutes of tight games.

Memphis’s Shawn Taggart seems to have all the pieces; yet, I remain as skeptical as ever. As long as he lives in the paint – and away from the longball – he offers up plenty-of-athleticism-and-difficult-to-matchup-with-size to bring on one key word: mismatch.

Duke’s is-he-starting-or-more-effective-off-the-bench Greg Paulus. Especially if Duke isn’t hitting its threes early on and its opponent is. In fact, nobody can save Duke if THAT happens. And it will…

(Mistake) Wake Forest’s phenomenal-freshman–who-does-more-without-the-ball-in-his-hands-on-offense-than-with-it Al Farouq-Amin. Especially if Jeff Teague isn’t decisive down the stretch with the basketball. This team is WAY too average the past four weeks.

Michigan State’s I-turn-over-the-ball-far-more-often-than-I-reward-teammates-in-the-post sophomore guard Durrell Summers. Especially since the dynamic sixth man might see more minutes than most starters for Izzo’s Spartans. Lucas better get healthy, too.

…sorry, I’ll try and find a West Coast school…

UCLA’s sensational-freshmen-who-needs-to-boost-his-draft-stock-ASAP Jrue Holliday, who appears unwilling to take big shots – especially inside the 3-point line – in the closing minutes of game. Especially when Collison needs to kick it out to a perimeter option.

Sorry Marquette, Clemson, Villanova, Missouri, Xavier, LSU, Butler, Kansas, Arizona State, and Gonzaga…you just don’t make the cut…yet.

Pay's brackets definitely got a shakeup (or two) after last night's hiccups.
Just like Jimmy Rollings, if you wanna be a champion, you gotta want it!

Carolina Is Better Without Hansbrough

When you read this headline, you probably asked the following questions:

“Is this guy on crack?”

“He knows we’re talking about Tyler and not Ben Hansbrough, right?”

“Really, … Is this guy on crack or other elicit drugs that severely impair judgment?”

Due to a stress reaction, Hansbrough is out with an indefinite timetable and the unanimous preseason #1 team in college basketball is without two of its starters (defensive ace Marcus Ginyard is out until December). It would be preposterous to even suggest that Carolina is better off without Psycho T, his 22.6 points and 10.2 rebounds per game and his utterly Caucasian style of celebration. However, they are.

After a catastrophic national semifinal loss against eventual champion Kansas, the Tar Heels faithful were anticipating of its three best players – Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, and Ty Lawson. Following a chain of events that saw Hansbrough indicate that he is coming back for his senior season, Ellington performing miserably in preparation for the draft and Lawson driving under the influence (also suffered an injury during workouts), the only losses for the Heels were reserves Quentin Thomas (graduation) and Alex Stepheson (transfer). Meanwhile, this did not stop Roy Williams and his staff from recruiting, as they anticipated losses and reloaded with the likes of PF Ed Davis (top 15 recruit), PF/C Tyler Zeller (top 25 recruit), PG Larry Drew and SG Justin Watts.

With a team that can go 12 deep, it would have been - even for a master psychologist like Roy Williams - to satisfy all players with the necessary playing time. This playing time will allow, especially in non-conference play will allow for Davis and Zeller to grow at an accelerated pace. That said, if Hansbrough is out for the next month, he will miss games against Kentucky, Michigan State, either Alabama or Oregon as well as a matchup versus either Notre Dame or Texas. In short, that’s a lot of growing up to, but it’s better to grow up in November and December rather than being thrown into the fire when conference play begins and everyone throws their best effort at the unquestioned pre-season #1 team in all of the land. Additionally, time without Hansbrough will allow for Lawson, Ellington and Danny Green (and even Bobby Frasor) to demonstrate their leadership abilities.

In the immediate, the injuries all but force Green from his preferred sixth man role which saw a giant leap in his production. This situation also forces the hand of a more welcomed yet significant problem. Unlike last year, the Tar Heels will have three able-bodied point guards in Lawson, Frasor and Drew. If the Heels play their cards right, they can pace Lawson, who was only “quick” as opposed to “blazing” towards the end of the season as he recuperated from an injury. Assuming Hansbrough’s stress reaction does not get aggravated and rehabilitates effectively, the Tar Heels will take a team with two to three additional key contributors over the loss of their best player during non-conference play.

An Unbiased Elite Eight PREVIEW [Saturday Edition]

Pay and I have decided to stick with what works, revisiting last year’s Elite Eight format we enjoyed so much, as we deliver your Unofficial Unbiased Preview to the Elite Eight.

The Sweet Sixteen got their pub the past two mornings. [I & II]

Don’t worry. We aren’t afraid to tick off a few coaches, call out non-professional athletes, or let our gut reactions – not our corporate sponsors or contacts – decide our analysis and perhaps, a prediction or two.

Without further banter, let’s roll!

…games are in order of tip-off (6:40pm and 9:05pm respectively)…

West Regional Final: #1. UCLA vs. #3. Xavier

Beware of the impact, and chest hair, of UCLA's role players.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Key Players
UCLA – When Darren Collison fouled out with over 5 minutes remaining in their Sweet Sixteen matchup against the Hilltoppers, the Bruins appeared to not break a sweat. It should’ve came as no surprise when the tandem of Westbrook/Shipp brought up the ball, thanks in large part to the brilliance of freshman Kevin Love. His passing has always been flaunted, his defense has arrived on the national scene, and now Love may be the one man whose team needs him more than any other. Josh Duncan is in for a nightmarish matchup.

Xavier – As important as Lavender’s poise, Burrell’s discipline and Raymond’s clutch-shooting has been to the Musketeers, anyone who has watched Xavier this tournament must realize the impact of PF Josh Duncan. Steadying them during a late WVU run, fouling out in the closing minutes was just as impactful for Alexander to WVU as Duncan was the Musketeers. In fact, if Duncan can play 30 minutes – battling with Love without fouling out first – then, he might be the West Regional MVP you never expected. Kevin Love is in for a nightmarish matchup.

Moment of Truth
It’s too hard for me to believe this game won’t be foul happy. The Bruins have shown in back-to-back games that they can overcome double-digit deficits (A&M) and nearly blow one of their own (WKU). The same can be said about the Musketeers actually (Georgia and WVU respectively). The real question I have is: who will be the first impact starter to foul out? Collison, Burrell, Lavender, Love or Duncan? In fact, it’s much more likely a few of these guys might be gone before the final buzzer, whether that’s after 40 minutes or not.

Key Stats
Without going too crazy, here’s two critical tourney statistics worth mentioning:
UCLA – Without going overboard, Kevin Love’s numbers have been astronomical throughout the season. However, his regular season numbers (17.6, 10.7, & 1.5) were pedestrian compared to his tournament averages (22.6, 11.3, & 5). While A&M offered up some beef, no opponent has had the talent that Josh Duncan has the attacking perimeter players the Musketeers offer a bounty of. Keep it up, Kev.

Xavier – Their opponents have shot respectively 6-13 (Georgia), 8-21 (Purdue), & West Virginia (1-11) for a total of 33.3%. While far from problematic as a whole, Xavier will rely heavily on limiting open shot opportunities from behind the arc from the Bruins and affording them a hot start early.

Interesting Facts
-UCLA is trying to be the first team to make 3 straight Final Fours. Who was the last to do it? Michigan State and Tom Izzo (sandwiching a Final Four-appearance in there). Of course, the Bruins did it with relative ease back in the 70s (aka The Wooden Years).

-Trying to remember the last time Xavier was in the Final Four? Good luck. Truth is: Xavier reached the Elite Eight in 2004 (Santos!) and was dispatched by top-seeded Duke. That’s as close as they’ve gotten to the final Saturday of the college basketball season. However, if you’re looking for a Cincinnati-based Final Four squad, check out the 91-92 Bearcats with a young Nick Van Exel at the point.

Pay’s Prediction: UCLA wins, 75-68
Clement’s Prediction: UCLA wins, 78-73

East Regional Final: #1. North Carolina vs. #3. Louisville

If Lawson is knocking down his shots early...good luck Cardinals.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Key Players
UNC – Early in the first half of their Sweet 16 battle versus Washington State, it was Danny Green who led the Tar Heels to an insurmountable 14-point halftime bulge. His aggressiveness and ability to finish is invaluable against Louisville’s pressure defense. That said, Ty Lawson and Quentin Thomas will have to continue making excellent decisions in breaking down the Cardinals. Of course, Tyler Hansbrough cannot have a first half like he did against the Cougars if he wants his legacy at Carolina to end in a national championship. Also, Wayne Ellington will need to continue hitting mid-range jumpers in transition.

Louisville – If the Cardinals are to extinguish the Tar Heels, it will come down to senior center David Padgett. He anchors the zone, is perhaps the nation’s best floor communicators and helped hold Tennessee to 34% field goal shooting. Do-everything forward Terrence Williams has struggled at times, but can take over a game at both ends of the floor and is never to take a big shot (and make it). However, Earl Clark and Andre McGee have elevated this team to the Elite Eight, and others (Jerry Smith, Juan Palacios, Derrick Character) are fully capable of contributing double-figure points.

Moment of Truth
Much like the first Elite Eight matchup, there will be fouls. Whomever can get the other into foul trouble first has a decided advantage and may force the opposition to veer away from their preferred style of play. Also, both outrebounded their opponents in the last round by more than ten. The squad that is most capable of securing the basketball will win this game and book their ticket to San Antonio.

Key Stats
-The Tar Heels have shot 57.7% including 42.6% from 3-point range in the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore point guard Ty Lawson carries a nearly 2.5 to 1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-Meanwhile, the Cardinals surrender only 38.4% from the field and only 30.7% from behind the arc. Something has to give in that department. Also, the Cardinals must improve upon their 64.9% clip from the charity stripe should they wish to upend the favored Tar Heels.

Interesting Fact
- Roy Williams and Rick Pitino are second (behind Coach K) in Final Four appearances (5) with 5 different teams combined.

Pay’s Prediction: North Carolina wins, 76-72
Clement’s Prediction: North Carolina wins, 83-71

See you tomorrow with the OTHER half of the Elite Eight...

An Unbiased Sweet Sixteen Analysis…UNLEASHED!!!

Pay and I have decided to stick with what works, revisiting last year’s Elite Eight format we enjoyed so much, as we deliver your Unofficial Unbiased Preview to the Sweet Sixteen.

Don’t worry. We aren’t afraid to tick off a few coaches, call out non-professional athletes, or let our gut reactions – not our corporate sponsors or contacts – decide our analysis and perhaps, a prediction or two.

Without further banter, let’s roll!

Thursday’s game get their pub today, with Friday’s slate arriving tomorrow morning.

East Region

Their opening matchups were a little on the easy side, so Terrence Williams and his fellow Cardinals are in for a much tougher affair against the Volunteers.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#1. North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #4. Washington State Cougars [Pay]

Perhaps, the most intriguing matchup of the Round of 16, UNC and WASU has the potential to be the second coming of Kansas and Southern Illinois (Kansas went on to win by the skin of their teeth). It all comes down to tempo and who sets it. If the Tar Heels own the tempo battle, then the score will be in the 70s or perhaps the 80s; however, if the Cougars have any say, the UNC scoreline may be closer to the 56.1 ppg that WASU has allowed this season under the tutelage of Tony Bennett. Over the last three halves of action, the Cougars have undeniably been the East Region’s second-best team after Carolina. They will need to trump their performance against Notre Dame (Luke Harangody wonders how that is possible) and frustrate the heck out of Tyler Hansbrough and obtain production from unexpected sources (e.g. Daven Harmeling, Caleb Forrest and Nikola Koprivica).

Players to Watch: Because he’s still not 100%, all eyes are always on Ty Lawson (who will be shadowed all night by either Derrick Low or Kyle Weaver), whose silky smooth moves split double teams in the backcourt on a regular basis allowing for easy Carolina points. Of course, there’s Wayne Ellington, who has quietly (don’t say that to Clemson) averaged 17 points per contest. Nevertheless, the key player for Carolina in this tournament run is none other than Danny Green (11.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 44 blk, 42 stl), who is the nation’s most influential 6^th-man and can change a game with his energy on both sides of the floor. He will likely be challenged by senior forward Robbie Cowgill who has had an up-and-down season. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels must be concerned with Taylor Rochestie’s ability to get on a hot streak from behind the arc. Though more than a few can light it up from three-point range, none can shoot at Rochestie’s 44% clip. What teams often forget is that Rochestie can make decisions with the best of them (146 assists to 54 turnovers) once defenses begin to overplay his deep shot.

Moment of Truth: If UNC finds itself down late in the first half due to a high turnover amount, what changes will Roy Williams make? On the flipside, if WASU is down by double digits entering the break, do they continue their deliberate style or go small to up the pace and maximize possessions? If the Cougars can punish the Tar Heels for liberal ball-handling, get three players in double figures and avoid foul trouble, then they have a chance. Of course, it’s important to know that the Cougars were 0-5 against UCLA and Stanford, teams who have dominant bigs who can be mentioned in the same breath as Psycho T.

#2. Tennessee Volunteers vs. #3. Louisville Cardinals [Clement]

As the only region to hold seed, one might think the East Region is the toughest out there. Not so fast. While the Tar Heels have been nothing but lights out their first 80 minutes of PT, the 2-seeded Vols have been far from impressive. Struggling against Jeff Jones and American was borderline embarrassing, especially considering how the Eagles were completely dominant on the glass. Transition to Sunday and the Vols nearly coughed up a second-half double-digit lead before narrowly escaping Butler (Mike Green, could you miss so many gimmies like that ever again?) in OT. Fortunately, the region regains its momentum with the phenomenal play of the Cardinals. Keep in mind that Rick Pitino is as savvy a coach remaining in the tournament field. With his team playing EXACTLY how Pitino knew they could, this is a lethal team that presses, passes, and hits deep threes at will.

Players to Watch: Chris Lofton’s injury may or may not end up being a big deal. Whether his “leg injury” limits his time or his range is extremely important for the Vols. There’s no better way to quiet a streaky three-point shooting team (like Louisville) than to knock down early shots and encourage them to force up rushed shots of their own. As for Pitino’s bunch, if you know anything about me – and my feelings towards Louisville – you’d know I have both of my eyes constantly, for better or worse, focused on Edgar Sosa. Whether he can play intelligent or not is pinnacle to his team’s ability to step up from above average to sublime.

Moment of Truth: When either team faces that early 19-11 deficit (and trust me, one of these teams undoubtedly will), will there reaction be panic or steely resolve? In a game likely to be filled with momentum shifts and runs, the team that can adjust in the half court and isolate the best shot opportunity for each possession will walk away the victors.

West Region

Westbrook's flair for the dramatics - on both sides of the ball - must be present for the Bruins to end Cinderella's run.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#3. Xavier Musketeers vs. #7. West Virginia Mountaineers [Clement]

It’s no secret that I’ve been calling out nearly every major media pundit (ESPN, CNNSI, CBSportsline, etc.) for labeling the Musketeers as a potential “Cinderella” story. Obviously, no true upset occurs any earlier than a 6/11 matchup (and when teams like Villanova are a #12 seed, additional requirements must be filled). However, I can’t blame the media for not loving what Xavier brings to the table. Despite choking away the end of their season (two bubble-busting losses to St. Joe’s) in A-10 play, the Musketeers have senior leadership, tremendous guard play and tournament pedigree. It doesn’t take Bob Knight to realize that those are three vital components for a championship contender. Meanwhile, on the PHSports bubble for quite some time, WVU rode a wave of momentum through the Big East Tournament semi-finals (including an impressive W over UCONN) and were seemingly under the radar to an overrated Arizona squad and given far too little a chance against the Dookies [sic]. Meanwhile, despite lacking any sufficient depth, the Mountaineers have a tourney-tested coach (sans his thugs), a dynamic scorer in Joe Alexander and resolve after battling through arguably the nation’s most competitive conference.

Players to Watch: We all should know the big names (Alexander, Burrell, Lavender, Duncan, & Butler) by now. However, each team possesses vital role players – whether starters or reserves – that are key to each reaching the Elite Eight. For the Musketeers, Derrick Brown (11 & 7) might draw the unenviable task of Joe Alexander duty (good luck). Just as important as staying out of foul trouble for Brown is Xavier’s need for him to crash the boards on offense and add some garbage points to their scoring total. As for the Mountaineers, I’m remembering back to Xavier’s classic 2^nd-round matchup versus the Buckeyes. I’m remembering the clutch threes that ultimately blew Xavier’s late lead and buried the A-10 representatives. So, who is most likely to deliver that from Coach Huggins’ country boys? Alex Ruoff is that guy. Around 3 for 7 a game from behind the arc, he has the ability to hit those shots that cut deficits or break the backs of opponents. That’s a lethal combination when the Elite Eight is on the line.

Moment of Truth: My question for the Musketeers, my personal selection to win this game by double-digits, is how they’ll (Xavier) react in the final, not the first, ten minutes of the first half. While WVU has shown lights-out shooting in the second half, I want to see if Lavender (offensively) and Burrell (defensively) can completely suffocate the overachieving WVU guards. Adjusting against an unbalanced Duke is one thing; however, if Duncan stays out of foul trouble, Xavier’s balanced attack on both sides of the ball will be far too much for the Mountaineers to overcome in the second-half.

#1. UCLA Bruins vs. #12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers [Pay]

The Hilltoppers enter Thursday are gunning for their 30^th victory. Enter UCLA. While conventional wisdom suggests that #12 seed Western Kentucky has little chance to advance, their perimeter shooting and ability to cause turnovers provides real hope. Additionally, Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook have struggled mightily in their last three games. As a result, two players – Darren Collison and Kevin Love – scored 40 of their 51 points on Saturday night against Texas A&M. Though much credit goes to Mark Turgeon’s young men, if a repeat offensive performance occurs on Thursday night, UCLA’s exit will dominate water cooler conversations on Friday morning. That’s because the Hilltoppers can score (77.3 ppg and shoot it from behind the arc (six leading scorers shot 38% or better in the regular season).

Players to Watch: We all know to watch for Kevin Love when he winks for the camera going into every other media timeout. In all seriousness, Josh Shipp must regain his beloved mid-range jumper if UCLA wants to cut down nets in San Antonio. Even if Westbrook struggles offensively, he is too much of a defensive stud to let that get to him. For Western Kentucky, Courtney Lee will likely be gloved by Westbrook, so Tyrone Brazelton, who has been the Hilltoppers’ best player in the NCAA Tournament, must continue to be aggressive, but, at the same time, make good decisions.

Moment of Truth: When the ball is tipped, which Western Kentucky will we see? Will we see a team who feels fulfilled by simply making it to Phoenix or a team with a chip on its shoulder that is continuing to seek respect for its institution and conference? Many intangibles, including (dare I say) whistles must not go in UCLA’s favor for WKU to continue dancing. In all honesty, I see this as a three-possession game until the final three minutes.

See you Friday morning with the treatment for the Midwest and South regions!

Until next time…

Sweet Sixteen…Thoughts

While analysis can continue, now that the Sweet Sixteen is set, from tonight until Thursday afternoon…I figured it’d only be fair to speak out, even if it was just a thought or two or SIXTEEN.

Be sure to check out a few pictures of some "regional x-factors" below.

East Region

Tennessee's Chism may be playing defense much further away from the paint than he's accustomed to.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

North Carolina – Scoring around 110 points in each of their two opening games, will the Heels struggle at all against the suffocating defensive attack of the Cougars? Or will their torrid fast-breaking pace be too much for the sudden Pac-10 threat?

Washington State – How on Earth does Tony Bennett plan on game-planning for the ridiculously high-octane Heels offense? HOW!?!?

Louisville – Will Rick Pitino’s boys stick to what has worked (3/4 press on defense and outside shooting on offense) the majority of the season or will a new gameplan be required to take out the East Region’s 2-seeded Vols?

Tennessee - Will Tennessee be able to use their blended style of agility and interior strength against the suffocating pressure, terrific passing, and outside shooting prowess of the Cardinals?

Midwest Region

Hughes must have a substantial impact on both sides of the ball, regardless of his age, for Wisconsin to survive a tough Midwest Bracket.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Kansas – Will a Bill Self-coached team not overlook a dangerous 12^th-seeded team from the nation’s most competitive conference?

Villanova – Are the Wildcats playing with company money at this point OR are they legitimately viewing themselves as Final Four material?

Wisconsin – Will the Badgers be able to dictate tempo, specifically out of the halftime gates when Stephen Curry becomes superhuman?

Davidson – Will the Wildcats be able to eliminate the tremendous boost the three-ball has given the Badgers in their opening two matchups?

South Region

Kemp's impact off the bench is vital towards the Tigers have a consistent, balanced attack.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Memphis – Does the Tigers history of missing free throws really matter until the Final Four?

Michigan State – Can the Spartans maintain their incredible first weekend momentum and continue to play 40 minutes of basketball a game?

Stanford – Will the Lopez twins be able to keep up with the pace of DJ Augustin and the run’n’gun Longhorn attack?

Texas – Can Texas stay out of foul trouble against the Lopez twins in the blocks?

West Region

Both Lee and Brazelton may need the games of their lives to take out the heavily-favored, yet vulnerable, Bruins.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

UCLA – Can UCLA give Kevin Love 20-30 touches in the paint and finally run their offense consistently through their incredibly talent post-player?

Western Kentucky – Can they shoot the 3-ball well enough to turn their game against UCLA into a shootout?

Xavier – Does Xavier have the depth to handle the incredible mismatches on the perimeter and in the paint West Virginia has caused its early opponents?

West Virginia – Can the Mountaineers, and their coach, continue to make all the right moves and all the big shots?

Interesting questions, indeed.

But the real question is: can YOU answer any of them???

Until next time…