An Unbiased Sweet Sixteen Analysis…UNLEASHED!!! [Part Deux]

Pay and I have decided to stick with what works, revisiting last year’s Elite Eight format we enjoyed so much, as we deliver your Unofficial Unbiased Preview to the Sweet Sixteen.

Don’t worry. We aren’t afraid to tick off a few coaches, call out non-professional athletes, or let our gut reactions – not our corporate sponsors or contacts – decide our analysis and perhaps, a prediction or two.

Without further banter, let’s roll!

Thursday’s game get their pub yesterday, with Friday’s slate arriving today.

Midwest Region

Contrary to what some of the "majors" have failed to tell you, guys like Jason Richards (8 assists a click) are teammates of recent all-world baller Stephen Curry for the Davidson Wildcats.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#3. Wisconsin vs. #10. Davidson [Pay]

Here is one of the biggest misnomers in the NCAA Tournament: Davidson is a one-man team. Why? It’s because Jason Richards is one of the best point guards in the country. PERIOD. Additionally, the Wildcats have a host of players who The Rock would love, because they know their damn role. On the other side of the scorer’s table, Wisconsin brings a suffocating brand of defense that many thought during the season was symptomatic of the anemic offenses in the Big Ten. They thought wrong. While the Badgers are capable of scoring points, they prefer to slow it down. Chances are that if they are successful in that pursuit, they will be deemed victorious.

Players to Watch: Hmm, let me check. Oh yeah, Stephen Curry. Not only is he a classic tournament player who was not recruited by the big schools, he is one of the nation’s best ten players … as a sophomore. For an undersized shooting guard, Curry finds ways to get open, score and involve teammates against taller, stronger guards. As always, Jason Richards (8.0 apg) will be a vital role in making certain that Curry gets his looks. Of course, Michael Flowers and Travon Hughes have the grand responsibility of not only gloving both players while staying out of foul trouble, but also forcing action at the other end. Brian Butch, Marcus Landry and Joel Krabbenhoft almost always present matchup problems for opponents and can be a source of frustration for Thomas Sander, Andrew Lovedale and Boris Meno. This battle of the boards can be a game-decider.

Moment of Truth: When the Wildcats are inevitably down by double digits in the second half, what coaching decisions will Bo Ryan to prevent his men from being a self-fulfilling prophecy? If and when Stephen Curry gets hot, what adjustments will the Badgers make if Michael Flowers is unable to control the sophomore stud?

#1. Kansas vs. #12. Villanova [Clement]

Role players interchange as stars and vice-versa for the Jayhawks (i.e. Russell Robinson).
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Is a 12-seed from a power conference truly a Cinderella? Whether or not they reached the Sweet Sixteen or not, Villanova isn’t a true Cinderella story. However, they will be the second after they defeat Kansas. Of course, that isn’t very likely to happen. Despite our problems with their coach being able to win the big games, Kansas’s rosters is LOADED with shooting, athleticism and clutch play. In fact, they probably have pound-for-pound the most talented roster in the entire country. Fortunately for the Wildcats, this game is in Detroit and not Kansas City. At least, that’s working for them.

Players to Watch: Despite losing his size, the injury to Casiem Drummond won’t decide this game. More important to the Villanova attack is the play of their three guards (Reynolds, Cunningham, and Fisher). While their frontcourt has plenty of work to do against the able-bodied Jayhawks, the Wildcats will only go as far as their slashing and shooting guards can carry them. As for Rock Chalk, the Jayhawks have a trio of guards of their own (Chalmers, Collins, and Robinson) who need to take care of the ball, attack the basket at will, and keep up with the intensity of the aforementioned Wildcats. It’d be too much to ask for Scottie Reynolds to put up a Herculean effort to carry his team to the Elite Eight, right? Right?

Moment of Truth: The first eight minutes of the game are always important. Duh. However, Kansas would be well-served to jump out early and put their feet on the throats of the Wildcats. If Villanova can keep it close early – or perhaps take a lead or two – Jay Wright will be able to push the buttons he wants to on offense, rather than try and keep up with the high-scoring Jayhawks.

South Region

AJ Abrams will need to offer more than a helping hand to the Longhorns offensive attack.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#2. Texas vs. #3. Stanford [Pay]

Forget Texas’s perceived home court advantage. If Stanford wants to win it all, they will have to beat everyone. Everywhere. This is the furthest the Cardinal have gone in the NCAA Tournament since 2001 and head coach Trent Johnson isn’t about to make excuses. He only has two NBA-ready 7-footers who deny and/or alter all shots in the half-court set that are 12 feet and in. Not to mention, they can score the ball. For the “home” team, DJ Augustin paces the Longhorns and must lead the way in harassing opposing ball-handlers en route to disrupting the Cardinal’s lethal half-court offense. The question for me is wildly clear: Will someone please induce a full-court press against Stanford and force the Cardinal out of their comfort zone? Perhaps, this is a testament to what Mitch Johnson means to this team in terms of engineering the offense.

Players to Watch: If AJ Abrams gets hot from behind the arc early, then the Cardinal are in serious trouble. Despite having tall defenders in Fred Washington, Lawrence Hill and Taj Finger who can cover on the perimeter, Abrams can shoot over them. Since Texas is decidedly smaller than Stanford, expect the Longhorns to use the physical 6’10” 299-pound Dexter Pittman or wiry big man Alexis Wangmene at the same time as center Connor Atchley during brief spells for Damion James. Meanwhile, the Cardinal perimeter players must hit open shots created by collapses on the Lopez brothers if they want to keep the Texas defense honest.

Moment of Truth: In a one-possession game, Rick Barnes has the luxury of turning to his trusty point guard, DJ Augustin. Though Mitch Johnson has been spectacular at the point for the Cardinal, he has only faced one team with a guard tandem as talented as Texas’s. Rick Barnes and his staff have likely watched the Stanford-Marquette game tape at least five times, and dissected exactly how the Longhorns can exploit the Cardinal.

#1. Memphis vs. #5. Michigan State [Clement]

Coach Izzo's championship-experience and Morgan's stature are two reasons MANY people are lovin' the Spartans to be the first to bounce a 1-seed (Memphis).
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Never in the history of the Final Four have all four 1-seeds made the Final Four. While several analysts (notably Jay Bilas, Clark Kellogg and “America’s Bracket”) warmed up to the idea a few weeks back, popular theory has Memphis being the most vulnerable of the 1-seeds. Whether that’s due to their competition (a stacked bracket remains) or their own deficiencies (free throws and a 3-point obsession, of course) is up to you. If it’s up to me, I see a Spartans team that is easily playing its best basketball all season. That’s lethal when you have a seasoned coach (with a national title), a senior driven to overcome a disappointing year and a Big Ten pedigree that is in stark contrast to Memphis’s style of running and gunning with incredible depth, no less. Is this where the first, and potential only, 1-seed takes its bow before the Final Four? We know where history stands on that possibility.

Players to Watch: Most people think of Memphis and isolate their backcourt: Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose. While they will have their impact for sure, I can’t help but target two Tiger big-men – Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier (combined 16 points and 16 boards a game) – who may have just as much with the Tigers continuing their winning-ways. Their ability to control the boards, block shots and spark transition is key for the Tigers to dictate the pace of the game. As for the Spartans, you know they’re dead-set on forcing the Tigers to play Big Ten basketball. While Raymar Morgan is the team’s leading scorer, it’s the Spartans leading rebounder, Goran Suton, that needs to replicate his performance versus Pitt against the Tiger big men. His 14 points, 9 rebounds, and most importantly, 3 fouls were key in dealing with the plethora of Pitt bigs. He’ll need to take advantage of easy shot opportunities, crash the offensive glass and make smart passes to shooters behind the arc named Neitzel.

Moment of Truth: As soon as the game reaches the penalty, in either half, (which can be quite early in a Spartans game) the Tigers’ greatest weakness will be exposed: free-throw shooting. The worst in the nation and in the NCAA Tournament (remember, 15-32 against Mississippi State in Round 2), free throws may afford Memphis a lead before the half and the ability to put away Izzo’s crew. If they can’t, John Calipari’s consistent care-free attitude towards poor free-throw shooting may again bury the Tiger’s Final Four aspirations.

See you Saturday and Sunday with the treatment for the Elite Eight!

Until next time…

An Unbiased Sweet Sixteen Analysis…UNLEASHED!!!

Pay and I have decided to stick with what works, revisiting last year’s Elite Eight format we enjoyed so much, as we deliver your Unofficial Unbiased Preview to the Sweet Sixteen.

Don’t worry. We aren’t afraid to tick off a few coaches, call out non-professional athletes, or let our gut reactions – not our corporate sponsors or contacts – decide our analysis and perhaps, a prediction or two.

Without further banter, let’s roll!

Thursday’s game get their pub today, with Friday’s slate arriving tomorrow morning.

East Region

Their opening matchups were a little on the easy side, so Terrence Williams and his fellow Cardinals are in for a much tougher affair against the Volunteers.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#1. North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #4. Washington State Cougars [Pay]

Perhaps, the most intriguing matchup of the Round of 16, UNC and WASU has the potential to be the second coming of Kansas and Southern Illinois (Kansas went on to win by the skin of their teeth). It all comes down to tempo and who sets it. If the Tar Heels own the tempo battle, then the score will be in the 70s or perhaps the 80s; however, if the Cougars have any say, the UNC scoreline may be closer to the 56.1 ppg that WASU has allowed this season under the tutelage of Tony Bennett. Over the last three halves of action, the Cougars have undeniably been the East Region’s second-best team after Carolina. They will need to trump their performance against Notre Dame (Luke Harangody wonders how that is possible) and frustrate the heck out of Tyler Hansbrough and obtain production from unexpected sources (e.g. Daven Harmeling, Caleb Forrest and Nikola Koprivica).

Players to Watch: Because he’s still not 100%, all eyes are always on Ty Lawson (who will be shadowed all night by either Derrick Low or Kyle Weaver), whose silky smooth moves split double teams in the backcourt on a regular basis allowing for easy Carolina points. Of course, there’s Wayne Ellington, who has quietly (don’t say that to Clemson) averaged 17 points per contest. Nevertheless, the key player for Carolina in this tournament run is none other than Danny Green (11.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 44 blk, 42 stl), who is the nation’s most influential 6^th-man and can change a game with his energy on both sides of the floor. He will likely be challenged by senior forward Robbie Cowgill who has had an up-and-down season. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels must be concerned with Taylor Rochestie’s ability to get on a hot streak from behind the arc. Though more than a few can light it up from three-point range, none can shoot at Rochestie’s 44% clip. What teams often forget is that Rochestie can make decisions with the best of them (146 assists to 54 turnovers) once defenses begin to overplay his deep shot.

Moment of Truth: If UNC finds itself down late in the first half due to a high turnover amount, what changes will Roy Williams make? On the flipside, if WASU is down by double digits entering the break, do they continue their deliberate style or go small to up the pace and maximize possessions? If the Cougars can punish the Tar Heels for liberal ball-handling, get three players in double figures and avoid foul trouble, then they have a chance. Of course, it’s important to know that the Cougars were 0-5 against UCLA and Stanford, teams who have dominant bigs who can be mentioned in the same breath as Psycho T.

#2. Tennessee Volunteers vs. #3. Louisville Cardinals [Clement]

As the only region to hold seed, one might think the East Region is the toughest out there. Not so fast. While the Tar Heels have been nothing but lights out their first 80 minutes of PT, the 2-seeded Vols have been far from impressive. Struggling against Jeff Jones and American was borderline embarrassing, especially considering how the Eagles were completely dominant on the glass. Transition to Sunday and the Vols nearly coughed up a second-half double-digit lead before narrowly escaping Butler (Mike Green, could you miss so many gimmies like that ever again?) in OT. Fortunately, the region regains its momentum with the phenomenal play of the Cardinals. Keep in mind that Rick Pitino is as savvy a coach remaining in the tournament field. With his team playing EXACTLY how Pitino knew they could, this is a lethal team that presses, passes, and hits deep threes at will.

Players to Watch: Chris Lofton’s injury may or may not end up being a big deal. Whether his “leg injury” limits his time or his range is extremely important for the Vols. There’s no better way to quiet a streaky three-point shooting team (like Louisville) than to knock down early shots and encourage them to force up rushed shots of their own. As for Pitino’s bunch, if you know anything about me – and my feelings towards Louisville – you’d know I have both of my eyes constantly, for better or worse, focused on Edgar Sosa. Whether he can play intelligent or not is pinnacle to his team’s ability to step up from above average to sublime.

Moment of Truth: When either team faces that early 19-11 deficit (and trust me, one of these teams undoubtedly will), will there reaction be panic or steely resolve? In a game likely to be filled with momentum shifts and runs, the team that can adjust in the half court and isolate the best shot opportunity for each possession will walk away the victors.

West Region

Westbrook's flair for the dramatics - on both sides of the ball - must be present for the Bruins to end Cinderella's run.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#3. Xavier Musketeers vs. #7. West Virginia Mountaineers [Clement]

It’s no secret that I’ve been calling out nearly every major media pundit (ESPN, CNNSI, CBSportsline, etc.) for labeling the Musketeers as a potential “Cinderella” story. Obviously, no true upset occurs any earlier than a 6/11 matchup (and when teams like Villanova are a #12 seed, additional requirements must be filled). However, I can’t blame the media for not loving what Xavier brings to the table. Despite choking away the end of their season (two bubble-busting losses to St. Joe’s) in A-10 play, the Musketeers have senior leadership, tremendous guard play and tournament pedigree. It doesn’t take Bob Knight to realize that those are three vital components for a championship contender. Meanwhile, on the PHSports bubble for quite some time, WVU rode a wave of momentum through the Big East Tournament semi-finals (including an impressive W over UCONN) and were seemingly under the radar to an overrated Arizona squad and given far too little a chance against the Dookies [sic]. Meanwhile, despite lacking any sufficient depth, the Mountaineers have a tourney-tested coach (sans his thugs), a dynamic scorer in Joe Alexander and resolve after battling through arguably the nation’s most competitive conference.

Players to Watch: We all should know the big names (Alexander, Burrell, Lavender, Duncan, & Butler) by now. However, each team possesses vital role players – whether starters or reserves – that are key to each reaching the Elite Eight. For the Musketeers, Derrick Brown (11 & 7) might draw the unenviable task of Joe Alexander duty (good luck). Just as important as staying out of foul trouble for Brown is Xavier’s need for him to crash the boards on offense and add some garbage points to their scoring total. As for the Mountaineers, I’m remembering back to Xavier’s classic 2^nd-round matchup versus the Buckeyes. I’m remembering the clutch threes that ultimately blew Xavier’s late lead and buried the A-10 representatives. So, who is most likely to deliver that from Coach Huggins’ country boys? Alex Ruoff is that guy. Around 3 for 7 a game from behind the arc, he has the ability to hit those shots that cut deficits or break the backs of opponents. That’s a lethal combination when the Elite Eight is on the line.

Moment of Truth: My question for the Musketeers, my personal selection to win this game by double-digits, is how they’ll (Xavier) react in the final, not the first, ten minutes of the first half. While WVU has shown lights-out shooting in the second half, I want to see if Lavender (offensively) and Burrell (defensively) can completely suffocate the overachieving WVU guards. Adjusting against an unbalanced Duke is one thing; however, if Duncan stays out of foul trouble, Xavier’s balanced attack on both sides of the ball will be far too much for the Mountaineers to overcome in the second-half.

#1. UCLA Bruins vs. #12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers [Pay]

The Hilltoppers enter Thursday are gunning for their 30^th victory. Enter UCLA. While conventional wisdom suggests that #12 seed Western Kentucky has little chance to advance, their perimeter shooting and ability to cause turnovers provides real hope. Additionally, Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook have struggled mightily in their last three games. As a result, two players – Darren Collison and Kevin Love – scored 40 of their 51 points on Saturday night against Texas A&M. Though much credit goes to Mark Turgeon’s young men, if a repeat offensive performance occurs on Thursday night, UCLA’s exit will dominate water cooler conversations on Friday morning. That’s because the Hilltoppers can score (77.3 ppg and shoot it from behind the arc (six leading scorers shot 38% or better in the regular season).

Players to Watch: We all know to watch for Kevin Love when he winks for the camera going into every other media timeout. In all seriousness, Josh Shipp must regain his beloved mid-range jumper if UCLA wants to cut down nets in San Antonio. Even if Westbrook struggles offensively, he is too much of a defensive stud to let that get to him. For Western Kentucky, Courtney Lee will likely be gloved by Westbrook, so Tyrone Brazelton, who has been the Hilltoppers’ best player in the NCAA Tournament, must continue to be aggressive, but, at the same time, make good decisions.

Moment of Truth: When the ball is tipped, which Western Kentucky will we see? Will we see a team who feels fulfilled by simply making it to Phoenix or a team with a chip on its shoulder that is continuing to seek respect for its institution and conference? Many intangibles, including (dare I say) whistles must not go in UCLA’s favor for WKU to continue dancing. In all honesty, I see this as a three-possession game until the final three minutes.

See you Friday morning with the treatment for the Midwest and South regions!

Until next time…