10 Friday Night Thoughts: Clement-Style

Last night was so much fun…let’s do it again!!!

{Check out Thursday night's reactions HERE}

Perhaps a few of us here at PHSports were a little too rough on the over-seeded Sooners. Perhaps.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Ladies and Gentlemen…we have our buzzer beater!
It might not be a clip of “the shot”, but it’s hilarious nevertheless. As for “the shot”, you had to see it live to truly enjoy it. (I was teaching Economic Systems to 8^th graders, lucky me!) Either way, we got our buzzer beater and we all but automatically have our Cinderella-story out of the West Region (more below).

2) UCONN’t beat the Toreros.
Call me a hater, but I LOVE when opening nights respectively have Arizona and UCONN losing. Especially when the Huskies – who had lost team-MVP AJ Price to injury – lose as a 4-seed to arguably the WCC’s 3^rd team. Yeah, I’m hatin!

3) Bracketbusting.
You might’ve had Drake or UCONN in the Sweet Sixteen (likely taking on UCLA); however, I doubt many of you had Western Kentucky or San Diego in that spot. Ahhh, the beauty of the tournament. 4 and 5 seeds are often the most vulnerable teams out there. Not to mention, I LOVE when UCONN loses. I LOVE IT! Meanwhile, in the night caps, Vanderbilt trailed throughout (brilliant idea picking them to go to the Sweet 16, Clement) to high-flying Siena and ended up being the second 4-seed of the day to bow out early (far too early in my opinion).

4) 1-Seeds hold serve. No surprise.
Mount St. Mary’s might’ve kept pace with the Heels for the first ten minutes; yet, they clearly proved why they were contestants in the play-in game and why the Heels are the #1 overall seed. Ditto for Memphis and TX-Arlington, a game I didn't watch one second of.

5) Those pesky 8/9 games.
You get Oregon, who is nowhere near a 9-seed, matched up against an erratic 8^th-seeded Mississippi State. Good luck. Next up, you have an overhyped Indiana-team going against an under-the-radar Arkansas-squad. Good luck, again. We know who won. Question is: did you get BOTH games right?

6) Bruce Pearl…isn’t happy. Brad Stevens is ecstatic!
Win a game by 15 points and the majority of the media and nation are thoroughly disgusted with your performance. Bruce Pearl will light up like a firecracker (or a Mentos in Diet Coke) over the next 24-hours enough to make sure the Vols are more focused and more physical, especially since Butler looked THAT good. South Alabama wasn’t bad, it’s just the Bulldogs were again THAT good. Their three-point shooting was phenomenal (specifically Pete Campbell’s torching 8-10 from behind the arc performance) and Butler reminded quite a few of us of their potential. How they earned a 7-seed still baffles me. However, I know I’ll be in front of a TV for this matchup Sunday afternoon.

7) OK-lahoma!
They were obviously an overrated 6-seed, but was it fair to completely disrespect the Sooners? Probably not. Was it also a mistake to completely overrate a St. Joe’s team who got in by beating Xavier twice? Definitely. The Sooners, led by former VCU head coach Jeff Capel (plug!) shot nearly 60% the entire game as they throttled the second-to-last remaining A-10 squad. Boomer Sooner 72-64!

8) Oregon Trail
Oregon didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. They don’t deserve analysis. Thankfully, Mississippi State overcame an early deficit and won. Thank you, Starkville. Bye bye, Quack Attack.

9) Which Indiana team showed up?
CBS was asking it over and over and over…and over. In the end, Indiana will most likely be left asking themselves, “What might’ve happened if Sampson was never dismissed from the team?” Of course, a more fair question might be, “What if Sampson never violated any of the NCAA rules, again”. Nevertheless, Sonny Weems and a somewhat underrated Arkansas squad (their 9-seed was mainly a result of the SEC Final loss to Georgia) took out the Hooisers and pitted themselves against white-hot UNC. Not much of a reward, huh?

10) Late night…FEAST???
To be honest, Memphis/TX-Arlington & Louisville/Boise State seemed like snorers two days before they began. In the end, both games lacked drama. Both cruised to victories in the late night hours. However, there was definite intrigue on viewing the likes of Eric Gordon/DJ White/Patrick Beverly in one matchup and the wide-open 5/12 matchup of Clemson v. Villanova. While the aforementioned Razorback victory wasn’t filled with too much intrigue, there was more than enough reasons to view Villanova’s impressive 18-point comeback against the Clemson Tigers (the only one of four ACC teams to lose in the opening round). With more victories than any other 12-seed in nearly 30 years, Jay Wright’s crew reminded the nation of their talent and their grit. With Vanderbilt’s loss to Siena, we now have two brackets in which a 12 or 13 will advance to the Sweet Sixteen (Siena/Villanova in the Midwest and Western Kentucky/San Diego out West). The real question soon becomes: is Villanova capable of being a legit Cinderella?

I just can’t help myself. Time for numero 11!

11) Saturday…Saturday…Saturday Saturday Saturday
Tons of matchups I want to see tomorrow. TONS! Wisconsin/Kansas State (who dictates the pace early and often), Notre Dame/WASU (arguably Thursday’s top two performers), Marquette/Stanford (speed vs. size), and Pittsburgh/Michigan State (who’s hotter than Pitt or more schizo than MSU?). WOW. Not to mention, A&M has the talent (I said talent) to keep its game with UCLA more than interesting and Xavier remains the wild-card the entire media seems to be rooting for (even a #3-seed) out West.

A&M has tons of talent, like Josh Carter, but are they disciplined enough to maintain focus under a suffocating Bruins defensive attack?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

See you later today!!!

Enjoy the day.

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Friday FourCast: Bubble Talk Continues...

The FourCast, barely two days old in its college basketball format, is already undergoing several radical changes.

First off, we’re going to target the eight best matchups of the day (because 4 +4 is 8!). Fortunately for your eyes, we’re only giving each game ONE sentence.

We’re also projecting four thoughts from the past day (in this case, Thursday). Finally, I’m asking our “Bracket expert” Paymon (who I assure you won’t change his picks at 5:52pm Sunday evening) four questions that are clawing me deep into my bone marrow.

Yes, I said bone marrow.

Some of us "experts" need to take quantum physics to explain how VCU and the "Dagger" will return to the tourney in 2008.
Credit: NY Times.com

FourCast Four Thoughts:

1) West Virginia not only pushed itself into “lock” status, but might start climbing up the big board with its impressive victory over (my pick to cut down the nets in MSG) the UCONN Huskies. Joe Alexander poured in 34 and the Mountaineers might have exposed UCONN’s questionable perimeter defense.

2) Houston said bye-bye to a desperately-needed Conference USA tourney run with a rather embarrassing loss to UTEP. Does this affect a certain Richmond-based team who needs Houston to look as good (but not too good)?

3) Apparently, UCLA doesn’t need all the calls. Often, teams like this can be discounted or even swept under the radar. What appears clear is that UCLA should earn the West’s #1 seed and even if they do not, they may be just as dangerous as they were last as the #2 seed out of their preferred region.

4) Teams who are livin’ on a bubble prayer (hello VCU!) better hope that teams like New Mexico, UNLV and Texas A&M are bit by the upset bug. Of course, that’s highly unlikely. HIGHLY.

FourCast Four Questions:
1) How damaging was Baylor’s 2-overtime loss to (12-19) Colorado?

It’s damaging enough to place them firmly onto the bubble, rather than near “lock” status. I think their early season neutral court wins will get them over the hump. I’ll take 9 wins in a top 3 conference and a neutral court victory over ‘Gody over most of the bubble boys any day.

2) Is Villanova truly “in” with their victory over Syracuse? Or was their drubbing from Georgetown (combined with a 3-6 record against the RPI Top 50 and several BAD losses – DePaul & Rutgers notably) enough to put them as one of the last four teams out?

Anyone familiar with Villanova knows exactly how aggravating it is to follow the team. Because of the criteria set before you, Villanova will be among the teams that Clement and I will be discussing at length on Sunday afternoon.

3) Arizona State’s standing has been far more pessimistic in brackets outside of yours. How damaging was their 4-point loss to OJ Mayo and the Trojans?

According to the Bracket Matrix, 41 of 53 bracket projectionists have Arizona State in the field of 65, but the average seed is 11. On their loss, I didn’t see it as damaging at all, except for it meaning that Arizona State has a losing conference record and an ugly RPI. They played tough defense against a stout USC team and fell short of forcing overtime, no thanks to PAC-10 officials.

4) Why is everyone so in love as of late with New Mexico?

I’ve been absent from this love party for New Mexico. There’s this bizarre belief that the Mountain West will be a two-bid conference, even if BYU wins the conference tournament. The 24 wins are impressive, but they are due in large part to fattening up on weak teams and at home. Of their 31 games, the Lobos played 18 on their home court. Their best win outside of Albuquerque was at San Diego State.

8 Games to Watch on Friday (or as WJFK’s Don & Mike say…Fri-dee!):

Michigan vs. Wisconsin
-Alright UM fans, this is your shot to make a 9-21 season end on as high a note as possible for a 9-21 team.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State
-A #1 seed for Texas is still far from out of the question.

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech
-Hokie fans were crying to me how much they wanted to avoid the ‘Canes. Tough break.

Xavier vs. St. Joseph’s
-The Red Hawks need this win if they want to keep their legit tourney hopes alive.

Georgetown vs. West Virginia

A) Who underrated Georgetown a month ago (ME!)

B) Who underrated WVU’s 11-win conference performance (Pay!)

Temple vs. UMass Charlotte
-With UMASS coughing up an 18-point lead, will Pay’s brilliance of sticking with Temple be rewarded with an A-10 Championship Game birth?

USC vs. UCLA
-This should clinch a #1 seed, in my opinion, for UCLA…if they win, of course.

Washington State vs. Stanford
-Forget this matchup, what about the Thursday night losers and their bubble fates (Arizona does seem safer than Oregon, right?)?

Hope you enjoyed the new format! It’s gonna be around for another 12 hours or so…

Thursday FourCast: Bracket & Bubble Banter

by Chris Clement

Since I enjoyed adding “talking points” so much to Pay’s work last night, let’s do it again!

Here’s the Thursday edition. Oh yeah, here’s yesterday’s bracket projections.

1) A-10 Quarterfinals: Dayton/Xavier & Big East Quarterfinals: Villanova/Georgetown
-So maybe both don’t deserve to share the top spot; however, they both face tall mountains to climb against their conference’s regular season champions. While the Wildcats seem a much safer bubble-in squad (a 19-point brutalization over the ‘Cuse) than the Flyers, both might seal their ticket with wins early-Saturday afternoon. This could also mean relax, relief, or pure terror from the likes of Temple, UMass and St. Joe’s.

2) PAC-10 Quarterfinals: Arizona State vs. USC
-Though we have Arizona State in the field, they are not a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday. This is not an ideal that is shared by all bracketologists. In fact, as often one of the last four in/last four out wins games they are not expected to win, the room for error for the PAC-10's #5 seed may be thinning by the day. Enter O.J. Mayo and the streaking Trojans who have the juice to drive a buzzsaw through the PAC-10 Tournament. While a loss to the Trojans might not throw them on the wrong side of the bubble, might a terrible one combined with Arizona and Oregon booking trips to the semis?

3) PAC-10 Quarterfinals, Take 2: Oregon vs. Washington State
-Could the Ducks become the first PAC-10 squad with a losing record to enter March Madness? With a recent sweep of ASU/Arizona, the Quack Attack (admit it, you like it) might seem as close to a bubble-lock as possible with a win over the Cougars. Lose the game and suddenly bubble-bound Arizona surpasses you for good and potentially 60%, rather than 70%, of the conference is tourney-bound.

4) Bubbly Bubblitis: UNLV/TCU & Miami(FL)/NC State & Florida/Alabama & Georgia/Ole Miss
-Okay, I could go on for hours. Perhaps, I could talk about the entire A-10 tournament. Instead, I selected these four games to break down the situations (or plights) of four types of bubble squads.
UNLV: Take the lead from San Diego and defend home court all the way into March Madness. Without a conference tournament title, you and New Mexico may bump each other into the last four out column.
Miami (FL): You appear more than safe after finishing 5th in the ACC and owning a win over Duke: An embarrassing loss to last year’s ACC Tournament runner-up NC State.
Florida: You now know reaching the SEC Tournament Finals may be the worst you can do. With such a young squad, does Billy “the Kid” have any magic left for the two-time defending champions to cling to?
Ole Miss: You’ve been called out by Pay as a potential sleeper. Who is my team to watch come conference tournament time? Anybody say…Nebraska??? ME!

See you Friday morning…hopefully with a little clarity.

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest

Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11

West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

Saturday’s College Basketball Musings

Exactly like the title indicates, these thoughts are unsystematic …

Kansas is awfully good. I still think they’re still a player thin in the frontcourt, but having Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun as your only bigs is a major positive. Mario Chalmers may be the nation's best defensive player. PERIOD.

Butler is doing everything to legitimize the 4-seed I gave them in the pre-season projections. We all knew the backcourt tandem of Green and Graves (yes, in that order) would be dominant, but freshman Matt Howard has made some forget about the losses of Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oregon has done nothing but disappoint. Mark January 5 as a possible turning point. Though Arizona was without do-everything guard Jerryd Bayless, the Ducks were unstoppable from behind the arc (10 for 22). Consider this a step back for the Wildcats who have shown marked improvement on the defensive end with Kevin O’Neill at the helm.

Despite improving to 10-3, NC State has driven me nuts. Sure, you lost your point guard for the year to a brutal injury. To have Presbyterian (1-18) sniffing at your heels for about 39 minutes is insulting to a program that has NCAA tournament aspirations. This can’t be too encouraging with the ACC schedule right around the corner.

If Vanderbilt continues to play with this level of fervor and resolve all season, you can just give National Coach of the Year honors to Kevin Stallings. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars (17.0 ppg) and Dan Cage (11.2 ppg), they were an afterthought. Someone forgot to send that memo to Stallings and company.

Kentucky sucks. No analysis needed. Youth or not, these results are unacceptable given the talent in place. Imagine if Tubby was 6-7. It would have never gotten that far.

Here’s a scary statistic: the SEC is the 8th-rated conference according to the RPI. Entering today’s play, only five SEC teams are rated in the top 100. Does this mean that the SEC, if this ranking holds, will have no more than three representatives dancing in March? If the ranking holds and justice is served, then that answer will be an emphatic “YES!”

Sunday's Finest: Elite 8 Coverage

... Midwest Region ...

#1. Florida vs. #3. Oregon [aka The National Champs vs. Team Track Meet]
Florida wins it 85-77 in a game played in the single digits. Florida asserted itself on both sides of the boards. More importantly, they hit three-pointers at a very high clip, which makes them unstoppable. When Taurean Green gets into an offensive groove, the whole team gets elevated to a different level. When Lee Humphrey is on, you'll have bad dreams that go into next season. Just trust me on that one.

Len Elmore has made too much out of the "struggles" of Tajuan Porter early on, but it was validated in the 2nd half when Porter's shooting slump translated into poor decisions. To expect a repeat performance of Friday night is preposterous. Porter still penetrated effectively. After letting Porter take the accolades for a night, Aaron Brooks re-emerged today as the Ducks' go-to guy. One major trend stood out - whenever Oregon cut the lead to two scores, either the Ducks could not execute or Florida prevented them from doing so. That's the mark of a champion.

The Florida Intangible
The ultimate intangible for Florida is targeting key members of the opposition and getting them into foul trouble. After that, they are able to attack the reserves as well as starters who are trying to avoid prohibitive foul situations. This is exactly how they exploited Butler on Friday night and how they intend on cutting the nets in Atlanta. Today was no different.

An Honest Question
Will Al Horford ever get called for a player control foul when backing down on the opposition? (Note: I would say Horford/Noah, but Noah is so out of control at times that even the worst referee would blow the whistle.)
As Walter Sopchek says in the Big Lebowski, "This isn't [Viet]'nam. There are rules."

... East Region ...
#1. North Carolina vs. #2. Georgetown [aka 12 Deep vs. Hoya Paranoia]

After the Hoyas were down literally all game, they fought tooth and nail to tie up the Tar Heels in the final minute. When the overtime began, the game was over. The Hoyas rolled to a 96-84 overtime victory and their trip to the Final Four in more than twenty years.

Despite 94 combined points in the first half, Georgetown dictated the pace of the game in the second half. Both teams had their cold streaks in the second stanza and Carolina had a 5-11 point lead for the majority of the half. For the first 32 minutes, North Carolina owned the offensive glass (namely, Deon Thompson) and were demonstrating a relative repeat performance of the USC game given the talent of the opposing frontcourt personnel.

Following the under-eight minute timeout, the game turned on a dime. Shortly thereafter, Brandan Wright picked up his fourth foul, and Carolina hit a brief spell. Meanwhile, the Hoyas seemed to score on every trip. In the waning minutes, Carolina took no less than three ill-advised early in the shot clock. All resulted in empty trips. The lack of continuity and the lack of defensive intensity - both being by-products from youth - stifled the Tar Heels' ability to finish off Georgetown.

With less than a minute remaining, Jonathan Wallace hit the shot that others may have seemed afraid to take. As a result, Georgetown tied the game. In my biased, mean world syndrome-affected mind (note: I'm a UNC fan, and have seen many near-giveaways against much weaker teams than Georgetown this season, who I picked to win it all in my single sheet of integrity), Georgetown had won the game because I had little to no faith in Roy Williams' ability to either select the right personnel or choose the right play to break Georgetown's mettle.

When the coach called the timeout for the final play, I expected a well-scripted play. What we got was a generic curl scripted for the wrong player shooting the ball without a single move to Hansbrough. Although Wayne Ellington will live to be a terrific player, he is for all intents and purposes, a young streak shooter. And when your young streak shooter is 2-for-8 (and a freshman), why not script the [horrific] play for the more seasoned pressure shooter, Reyshawn Terry? I would have preferred the boring feed inside to Hansbrough against Roy "I played masterfully with 4 fouls" Hibbert and having Terry on the perimeter waiting for the collapse on the ball, but what do I know? I'm not a coach, never will be, and would be humbled by the opportunity to come within two sniffs of press row.

The end game is that the better team with the better in-game tactician won. Carolina should be very strong next year unless both Wright and Hansbrough declare for the NBA Draft. Georgetown faces a slightly different Ohio State team compared to the one they defeated last year in the NCAA tournament. Just slightly.

Key Stats
North Carolina had a free throw attempts and makes edge of 34-18 and 29-12, respectively. The difference is more stratified when considering that Georgetown made many if not most of its trips during the extra session. To make up for that, JTIII's men shot 8-for-14 from 3-point range, with the underrated Jonathan Wallace hitting 3 of 4 including the one to tie it up.

Fun Facts
- Brad Slepetz, architect of the Hashemi-Slepetz Percentage Index (an evolving alternate to the RPI), has his second school going to the Final Four in as many years. Last year, Slepetz lived the dream at George Mason University. Over the summer, Slepetz, like many before him, bolted for the greener pastures of Georgetown.
- I muted Billy Packer with 9:59 left in the first half after further suggesting that America is blind (insisting Jeff Green did not travel on Friday night). I went back to full volume shortly after the start of the second half.
- Jeff Green had about the quietest 20-point performance he's had all year.

Friday Night Tournament Previews

Last night, the chalk held and I remain disgusted by Tennessee's inability to put away Ohio State. Tonight, we might be in store for the same, which is good for college basketball's elite as well as the ratings for the Elite 8 games.

Clement and I are splitting up the regions. He's got Georgetown/Vanderbilt and Oregon/UNLV and I've got the two #1 seeds versus the upstart #5 seeds.

East Region Game #1
#2. Georgetown vs. #6. Vanderbilt
It's tough to pick directly against your Cinderella, but I expect the Hoyas to dictate every piece of this game on Friday. While Hibbert often seems entrenched in granite, he has looked smooth enough thus far, alongside Jeff Green (who always seems to play well when it matters most). The key may be role players like Sapp, Ewing Jr., and Summers if the Hoyas plan to take the wind out of the sails of the Commodores. Speaking of which, don't underestimate what it took to take down Washington State in double overtime. Often the hardest part of advancing deep into the tournament are those difficult early games. Derrick Byars is an insane talent who demands the ball when it matters (which coaches always love). While Vandy has a lot going against them, the SEC has upset the Big East before in similar surprising fashion (ala Alabama over the Orange in 2004).

Players to Watch: Patrick Ewing Jr. [Georgetown] & Shan Foster [Vanderbilt]
Moment of Truth: If Vandy falls down 6 or 8 within a few minutes, will they attempt to shoot the gym out with poorly-placed threes…or work the ball through the Georgetown defense and take smartly-placed threes? We shall see.

East Region Game #2
#1. North Carolina vs. #5. USC
When analyzing this game, one question immediately comes to mind. Okay, about three. Does USC have enough bodies to compete with North Carolina for the last 10 minutes of the game? Can USC get a repeat performance of Sunday from both Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett? Did Lodrick Stewart really have a root canal on Tuesday or are they just trying to soften up the Heels? One thing Tim Floyd can exploit is the relative weakness of Carolina's swingmen. Nick Young is a stud. Ellington is young and Reyshawn Terry is struggling with potential strep. Gabe Pruitt and Ty Lawson are expected to entertain.

Players to Watch: Daniel Hackett [USC] & Reyshawn Terry [North Carolina]
Moment of Truth: If Carolina is down late, who will be the player to step up alongside Tyler Hansbrough? How will Tim Floyd counteract the depth of Carolina, especially in the frontcourt?

Midwest Region Game #1
#1. Florida vs. #5. Butler
Another contrast in styles in store for this game, but not to the extent of Kansas and Southern Illinois last night. The Gators score 80 per game while the Bulldogs only give up 57, so expect Butler's ball-handlers to slow this game down. If Butler wins this game, it will be because of their ball security courtesy of Graves and Green, their ability to get to the free throw line, and of course, the trifecta. The annoyance factor must come into play as well for Butler. Florida has to be good for 30-35 minutes to be certain of victory and be resolute in their decision making. They must also take advantage of the hefty size disparity between the national champion and the mid-major. If Taurean Green can hold his own and find Humphrey, then Florida should be playing on Sunday against the Oregon/UNLV winner.

Players to Watch: Taurean Green [Florida] and Pete Campbell [Butler]
Moment of Truth: Butler's poise and ability to make open shots will determine whether this one will be decided in the final 5 minutes. If such is the case, chalk may finally not hold.

Midwest Region Game #2
#3. Oregon vs. #7. UNLV
An underrated game to say the least…in fact it's the one I'm dying to see. You might snicker, but the coaches are talented [Kent & Kruger] and the teams are filled with talented player who are fun to watch [i.e. Tajuan Porter & Kevin Kruger]. Both teams have been a little fortunate to face sub-par shooting [especially UNLV], yet both teams capitalize on opponent's mistakes and have performed well when their leads appear to be shrinking to nothing. In fact, it's this back-and-forth style which makes this game so intriguing. It could definitely be worth of an overtime session…or two.

Players to Watch: Wendell White [UNLV] & Bryce Taylor [Oregon]
Moment of Truth: UNLV has been a team of spurts, runs, and often droughts this season. Oregon could be the hottest team in the country right now. So in essence, UNLV needs to start well during the first 4-6 minutes. I'm not saying they need to be up 12, but they better not be down 12.

The Misses

Usually, the shtick for established columnists and up-and-coming bloggers in the sports realm is to highlight their good predictions and ignore the bad misses. Today, I'm going to focus on the misses this season. Let's focus on three misses.

The most obvious miss was Texas A&M. Don't get me wrong, I expected them to make the tournament with a relatively weaker Big XII compared to previous years and a multitude of returning players. I even thought that they had a chance at a 'protected seed' (4 or better). I just wasn't convinced on December 10 when I criticized the embellishing of A&M by one Gary Parrish of CBS Sportsline lore. At the time, I didn't expect Acie Law IV to have 25 great games in a 30+ game season.

Another miss was the Pac-10 conference. At season's start, I viewed it as a 3-4 bid conference with UCLA, Arizona, and Washington being the locks. USC was my 4th team. No Oregon. No Washington State. I knew of Aaron Brooks, but what about Tajuan Porter and Maarty Leunen? Not so much. As for Wazzou, I had no clue. (Yes, I rhymed).

Another Texas A&M-associated miss was the non-inclusion of Acie Law IV in my top three preseason All-America teams. Instead, I included the likes of Ronald Steele, Dominic James, Richard Roby (who?), Sean Singletary, and Brandon Heath at the guard positions ahead of Law. What on earth was I thinking?

While there are other misses that can be harped on (namely, Butler during the NCAA Tournament), those are the ones of the highest magnitude. With that said, some of these misses pale in comparison to those of the real media and higher-profile bloggers.

Tomorrow, we'll have our predictions for the Sweet 16 games as well as other observations pertinent to the NCAA tournament and beyond.

Hopes Dashed and Revived - Clemson and Oregon

On Thursday night, two fading squads who badly needed victories on their home court against Power 16 teams had a dissimilar fate. By the end of the night, hopes were shot in Clemson while they were revitalized in Eugene.

Clemson continued their sharp ACC descent as they lost at home to Duke. While the Tigers and their fans may lament three missed Duke travel calls, one mistaken travel call against them, and a mistaken basket interference call; however, how do you get down by 23 to a team that does not know how to score consistently? Credit the fans at Littlejohn Coliseum for never giving up in the pursuit of a comeback. Also, credit Duke for buckling down on defense whenever the lead got to within two baskets.

Just minutes from halftime, Oregon trailed Washington State by double digits. When losing 6 of 8 games in a cut-throat conference, character is needed to overcome such deficits against quality opponents. Not giving in, the Ducks rallied behind Tajuan Porter to defeat the surging Cougars. Putting things in perspective, Oregon avoided being 8-8 in conference and should be in the tournament given their resume.

Additionally, following up on the Wednesday post, the 3rd best resume belonged to West Virginia, who averages a 9-seed according to a collection of bracket projections at the Comparing the Seeds page (link on the right). The first was Old Dominion and the second was Illinois. Something to think about as we move closer to the final stretch of the regular season.