Observations from UConn @ Georgetown 1/8/10

Being a resident of the Washington DC metropolitan area, I had an opportunity to attend yesterday's UConn-Georgetown clash. We all know Austin Freeman was all-world and had a career-high 33 points. Below are some quick hit observations:

• Greg Monroe is poorly utilized in the Princeton style offense as engineered by Georgetown head coach John Thompson III (JT3). It seemed that he was 17 feet away from the basket on nearly every other possession. If I have a 6'11", 250-pound stud on my team (who's the most talented player on the team, bar none) who's not afraid to take some punishment down low, I'm re-designing the offense to suit his strengths.
  

• UConn has some freakishly talented athletes. I've watched Stanley Robinson many times on television. He was on another level in person.

• The Huskies were especially effective in the fast break. When Georgetown was not able to set their defense, UConn was able to utilize their athleticism to exploit 1-on-1 matchups.

• UConn's halfcourt set seemed to miss something when Gavin Edwards was not in the game.

• JT3 should have pulled Chris Wright after he rushed a 20-foot two-pointer with more than 25 seconds left on the shot clock. While Wright's moxie is likable at times, Georgetown's offense is predicated on patience. JT3 needs to sit Wright down and have him watch film of former point guard Jonathan Wallace.
  

• Georgetown's weak-side defensive rebounding is awful. And it's been awful for about two years. To make a real run in the Big East and in March, the Hoyas will need to shore this up.

• This game reduced Jim Calhoun's life expectancy by a minimum of 3 years. There's a lot of opportunity for learning, but yesterday's game was a heartbreaker. It further demonstrated that the Huskies need some guard depth. Kemba Walker and Jerome Dyson are very good, but they lost a step in the 2nd half, and it was noticeable at both ends of the floor (Walker, especially on the mental side).

• Georgetown needs one more "zone buster" on the team, or in their rotation. Last season, Nikita Mescheriakov showed glimpses of being that guy, but he proved to be a defensive liability, and eventually transferred. Freeman's performance was an anomaly, and his shots really opened up opportunities down low, and vice versa.
  

Desperation is a Stinky Cologne

Georgetown and Cincinnati confirmed that notion this evening.

After holding a firm 15-point lead in the Garden, Georgetown blew it. Plain and simple. Though they were hard done by a timeout that should not have been granted and a foul that was not in the last 15 seconds of regulation, it never should have even been a game at that juncture. Three letters summarize my thoughts. N-I-T. JT3 should pay back his salary a la Bob Knight. His players looked clueless and underprepared in the closing minutes.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State won a must-win game against fellow bubble team Kansas State behind the leadership of senior guard Byron Eaton. 15 for 15 from the charity stripe. 'Nuff said.

At Cameron Indoor, Duke was behind for much of the night but they seem to be in firm position with under a minute left behind some hot shooting by Kyle Singler. In an amazing development, Leonard Hamilton is still wearing his tie.

Also, Maryland, Ohio State, Utah and Syracuse are knotted up in close games, all with severe at-large bid implications.

The Future’s For Discovering: Big East Bubble Breakdown and Pre-MSG Forecasting

To date, a conservative estimate posits that no less than five Big East teams have punched their ticket for March Madness and no more than five teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at Madison Square Garden. That leaves a whopping six teams vying for additional at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions. For that reason, I underlined two projected upsets that may be controversial.

IN: UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova
OUT: Seton Hall, St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul
NOT YET IN: Providence, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
Key Wins: v. Pittsburgh, v. Syracuse, Cincinnati (2x), Rhode Island
Remaining Games: @ Rutgers (W), @ Villanova (L)
Projected Record: 18-12 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-4

Syracuse 20-8 (8-7)
Key Wins: Florida (N), Kansas (SA), @ Memphis, v. Notre Dame, v. West Virginia, Georgetown (S)
Remaining Games: v. Cincinnati (W), v. Rutgers (W), @ Marquette (L)
Projected Record: 22-9 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

West Virginia 19-9 (8-7)
Key Wins: v. Villanova, @ Ohio State, @ Georgetown, v. Providence, v. Notre Dame
Remaining Games: @ South Florida (W), v. DePaul (W), v. Louisville (W)
Projected Record: 22-9 (11-7)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Cincinnati 18-10 (8-7)
Key Wins: Georgetown (2x), v. West Virginia, v. Notre Dame, @UNLV, v. UAB
Remaining Games: @ Syracuse (L), @ South Florida (W), v. Seton Hall (W)
Projected Record: 20-11 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

Notre Dame 16-12 (7-9)
Key Wins: Texas (N), Louisville (S), Georgetown, @ Providence
Remaining Games: v. Villanova (W), v. St. John’s (W)
Projected Record: 18-12 (9-9)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Georgetown 15-12 (6-10)
Key Wins: @ UConn, v. Memphis, @ Villanova, Syracuse (S), v. Providence, Maryland (N)
Remaining Games: @ St. John’s (W), v. DePaul (W)
Projected Record: 17-12 (8-10)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 2-4

As a result of this exercise, West Virginia finishes alone in 6^th place. Three teams tie for a 10-8 regular season mark. If the tie-breaker of choice is each team’s record against the other three, here is how it would break down.

Providence: 3-0 (7^th seed)
Syracuse: 1-1 (8^th seed)
Cincinnati: 0-3 (9^th seed)
Notre Dame earns the 10^th seed and Georgetown takes the 11^th.

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

West Virginia: Absolutely nothing (if they defeat Louisville in the season finale)
Providence: Win at least 1 game (win would have to be against Notre Dame) and advance to quarterfinals
Syracuse: Nothing (barring no costly injuries)
Cincinnati: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Syracuse) and advance to quarterfinals
Notre Dame: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Providence) and advance to quarterfinals
Georgetown: Win 1 game; 2nd win (would be versus West Virginia) would lock up a certain bid with road/neutral wins against UConn, Villanova, West Virginia and Maryland.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - February 9, 2009

For the third straight set of projections, UConn tops the charts. This pick was solidified by exemplary defense as well as two subtractions from the UNC roster (Marcus Ginyard ruled out by injury and Will Graves suspended for reasons that Roy Williams decided not to elaborate).

Though they have only one loss (to Arkansas), Oklahoma remains on the 2-line. Due to a matchup conflict, I placed them in the 6^th overall spot, though we project them to be higher than Louisville, who greeted February with a setback on Monday and an uninspiring performance on Sunday.

In terms of whose stock rose, look no further than the Tigers of Memphis and Missouri.

* I expected Memphis to be competitive against Gonzaga, but I did not expect to punish and demoralize the Bulldogs. John Calipari's management of Tyreke Evans - who came in with a selfish tag and is suddenly one of the best floor generals in the country since his move to the point – is worthy of Hall of Fame consideration on its face.

* As for Missouri, they are living up to their gaudy eye test metrics (top 25 national rating in offensive and defensive efficiency). Because they are now the 3^rd team in the Big XII, they will be the hunted and will not catch teams off guard.

Meanwhile, stock is plummeting in Austin, Lafayette, Las Vegas and State College.

* On the heels of three consecutive conference losses to teams not named Oklahoma or Kansas, Texas is in the midst of an identity crisis and it is due in part to being banged up and not having an NBA-caliber point guard in the backcourt. However, this is why Rick Barnes gets paid the big bucks. He will have this team turned around, though it may not be immediate.

* While I do not think Robbie Hummel is the best player for the Boilermakers, his absence has been felt in two losses this week. If he remains out, expect more of the same. The beneficiaries of this loss will no doubt be Ohio State, Illinois and Minnesota, who are all battling for a 'protected' seed (i.e. 4 seed or better).

* UNLV is playing awful. When you lose close games, the finger will undoubtedly be in the direction of either the best player or the point guard. In this case, it's the same player. Yeah, I'm calling you out Wink Adams. Another week like this and my stretch of a Mountain West championship becomes no more. Utah is starting to normalize.

* As highlighted by other folks, in a week that Penn State needed a split, the Nittany Lions came out empty-handed and they have three halves of utter futility to thank for it. After winning unexpectedly in East Lansing, Penn State tanked against fellow bubble teams with back-to-back double-digit losses. That's toxic for a resume and I cannot emphasize that enough.

Moving down to the last four in, I went in with the notion that I am choosing the best 34 at-large teams. Miami-FL may finish 7-9 in the ACC and may garner serious at-large consideration, especially if Kentucky (who they defeated at Rupp Arena) rights the ship and Ohio State (who they would have beaten had Jack McClinton not been wrongfully ejected) continues to play well. In the end, it came down to Arizona and Kansas State. While I think that it is slightly irresponsible to have six from the PAC 10, Arizona has a better resume than Kansas State.

On a final note, Georgetown, who was a protected seed, is out of the field. The tipping point was an overtime loss against Cincinnati, which I happened to attend. If the Hoyas can go 8-10 in the Big East given their tougher than average schedule with a semifinal run at Madison Square Garden, they carry a strong argument for an at-large bid. At this point, however, it is unrealistic to see Georgetown win four of their last seven and win at least two at MSG.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)

2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest

3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Clemson, UCLA

4: Marquette, Xavier (A-10), Kansas, Ohio State

5: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, Illinois, Purdue

6: Minnesota, Washington, Gonzaga (WCC), Missouri

7: Arizona State, Florida State, West Virginia, Texas

8: Tennessee (SEC), Davidson (Southern), California, Florida

9: Boston College, Dayton, Virginia Tech, UNLV (MWC)

10: Utah State (WAC), LSU, USC, Utah

11: Cincinnati, South Carolina, Wisconsin, Miami-FL

12: Siena (Metro Atlantic), BYU, Kentucky, Arizona

13: Creighton (MVC), VCU (CAA), Buffalo (MAC), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

14: Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit), Vermont (America East), Cornell (Ivy)

15: VMI (Big South), American (Patriot), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Weber State (Big Sky), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), Robert Morris (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Wisconsin, BYU, Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Creighton, Tennessee-Martin

OUT: Penn State, Georgetown, Northern Iowa, St. Mary's, Providence, Austin Peay

Last Four In: Miami-FL, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Arizona

Last Four Out: Kansas State, Mississippi State, San Diego State, Michigan

Next Four Out: Penn State, Georgetown, St. Mary's, Nebraska

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12

Pac-10: 6/10

Big East: 8/16

Big Ten: 6/11

SEC: 5/12

Big XII: 4/12

Mountain West: 3/9

A-10: 2/14

Bye Bye, Billy - Six Reasons I Won't Miss You

“This was a decision CBS and I made over a year ago.” The statement made by Billy Packer disputes claims that he was let go by CBS.

No matter how I look at it, it’s a beautiful day for college basketball fans, because Billy Packer not calling games anymore will allow for many of us to unmute our televisions. It’s also perhaps one of the few days during the calendar year when even UNC and Duke can smile for the same reason.

Grey Blackwell of the News and Observer (AKA The News and Disturber) correctly summarizes Packer’s career had he entered other career avenues.



That said, here are 6 reasons I won’t miss Billy.

6) In 2000, Packer reportedly made sexist comments to two Duke University students before a men’s basketball game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. When asked to show his press pass, he responded, “Since when do we let women control who gets into a men’s basketball game? Why don’t you go find a women’s game to let people into?” Packer later apologized. I’m certain the two women found his apology sincere.

5) “Simon says … championship”. Those are three words that haunt Clement.

4) During an on-air broadcast of a game between Georgetown and Villanova, Packer described Hoyas guard Allen Iverson as a “tough monkey”. Neither Iverson nor then-head coach John Thompson were offended by the remark, and Thompson said Packer doesn’t “have to explain to anybody about Billy being a racist because he’s not.” He is living a few centuries behind us though.

3) “I’ve never really been a sports fan.” One sentence never made so much sense to me.

2) “That’s a poor decision by [insert name of fallible player, coach or referee].” Packer’s constant negativity has made games that market themselves tough to watch. Only Dick Vitale and Mike Patrick make games tougher to watch. Sadly, all three cover ACC games and I live in the Mid-Atlantic region.

1) Packer’s blatant ignorance towards mid-major schools gaining at-large bids in the NCAA and weak-minded half truths have entered the brains of those who have not yet muted their televisions. During the NCAA Tournament Selection Show, Packer criticized the selection committee’s decision to include Bradley, Northern Iowa and George Mason. He noted that teams from the Missouri Valley Conference and Colonial Athletic Association had won only one game during the last three NCAA tournaments, while teams from the ACC had won 25 games. As a result, three of the four teams made it to the Sweet 16 and one made the Final Four.
If only Packer would have shared with the audience how many of those wins were by mediocre ACC teams with lower than a #10 seed. He didn’t. Why? Facts aren’t important to those with agendas or those with uncontrollable egos that makes oneself think they’re bigger than the game. Check. Check.

Bye bye, Billy.

Note: In the making of this post, Billy Packer would have pointed out that a traveling violation was not whistled exactly 6209 times.

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

2008 NCAA Projections - March 10, 2008

Christmas: Easily one of Philly's finest

Credit: Fans Only

(Editor's Note: This bracket does not reflect the result of the St. Mary's - San Diego game)

Last week, we held off on putting UNC as the #1 overall seed because they lacked that signature win. On Saturday, they got that win at Cameron Indoor Stadium, spoiling senior night for Duke, and for DaMarcus Nelson in particular. As for UCLA, they remained a #1 seed despite having two games which they probably should have lost. As a result, the gap between overall #4 and #5 teams on the big board has tightened.

In the Big East, Georgetown overcame Louisville to win the Big East regular season championship. Though Clement has a feeling that UConn may take the spoils at MSG, we project that the Hoya faithful will tell us exactly who they are when the clock shows three zeroes.

Moving to the fourth seed line, though we include MVC champ Drake, we really see them as a #5 seed; however, everyone else lost a game that they really should not have. On the seventh seed line, Marquette is a squad that can jump leaps and bounds with a superb showing at MSG, but we just don’t see it happening.

Meanwhile, let’s take a detour to the bubble.

- We have Ohio State as a #10 seed. Are they in? Not quite yet. Why are they so high? Perhaps, it’s because the Selection Committee loves to overrate quality March victories. This seeding may be one that we may need to review after their game against Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament.

- In deciding upon either Baylor or West Virginia for the final #10 seed, Baylor’s ability to the Big East #3 on a neutral court was more valuable than any single win that the Mountaineers had.

- In the PAC 10, we like seven teams as of right now. If Oregon loses by double digits against Washington State, then they will likely be out of the equation. Though Arizona finished 8-10 in conference, their #2 SOS nationally and a season sweep of the Cougars makes them more than viable.

- In the conference otherwise known as the A-14, we see Temple having the best opportunity to be the team that faces (and loses to) Xavier in the final. With their huge win against Xavier, St. Joseph’s claims the 34th at-large bid, outlasting VCU who lost a shocker to William & Mary. Of course, a sweep over UMass and a blowout win over Villanova never hurt. Despite winning both games this week, Dayton is now #8 seed, meaning that if they defeat St. Louis in the 1st round, they will face Xavier in the quarterfinals. Neither Clement nor myself felt brave enough to make that prediction regardless of whether Chris Wright plays.

- As stated for weeks, we expect UNLV to win the Mountain West Tournament on their home court. In doing that, we see them defeating both BYU and New Mexico, which shall help their resume.

- In the ACC, an expected loss for Virginia Tech and an unexpected one for Maryland (although Clement would have never put money on that game) meant doom and 4 seeds for now.

- Lastly, who is the best candidate to be this year’s Arkansas? That would be Ole Miss, who won its last three conference games to finish 7-9. Meanwhile, they are 5-3 against the RPI Top 50, which is a rarity. Additionally, they can avoid Tennessee until the finals.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Indiana, Gonzaga (WCC), Butler (Horizon), Pittsburgh
7: Marquette, Clemson, Kansas State, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, St. Mary’s, BYU, Kent State (MAC)
9: Miami-FL, Arizona State, South Alabama (Sun Belt), Oklahoma
10: Arkansas, Ohio State, Baylor, West Virginia
11: Arizona, Davidson (Southern), UNLV (MWC), Illinois State
12: Texas A&M, Villanova, Temple, Oregon
13: St. Joseph’s, George Mason (CAA), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s
Last Four Out: VCU, UMass, Syracuse, UAB
Next Four Out: Dayton, Maryland, Florida, Ole Miss

IN: Ohio State, Villanova, Temple, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, George Mason, UC Santa Barbara, Winthrop, Sacred Heart
OUT: VCU, Maryland, UMass, Southern Illinois, Dayton, Florida, Cal State Northridge, UNC-Asheville, Robert Morris

Seeding Summary(Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Pac-10: 7/10
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
Big East: 7/16
ACC: 4/12
Big Ten: 5/11

West Coast: 2/8
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
A-10: 3/14

Final Four Previews
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

National Semifinal #1
The Ultimate Preview: #1. Ohio State vs. #2. Georgetown

The first national semifinal of the night has Thad Matta’s youthful and extremely athletic Buckeyes matched up against John Thompson III’s disciplined and chiseled Hoyas. It’s the type of matchup that any college basketball fan should be truly excited about. Why? Let’s take a deeper look into the Four Factors that make this a game that a can’t-miss matchup.

Stories
Georgetown is just 25 years removed from Fred Brown’s errant pass to James Worthy in the closing seconds of the ’82 title game. The Buckeyes, despite an appearance in ’99, haven’t been in a National Title game since 1968. Add to that who is coaching, John Thompson’s son, and that a Ewing, Patrick Ewing Jr., is on the court for Georgetown. The last-second shot against Vandy, with more than a little controversy attached to it, was perhaps the talk of last weekend’s games. That was the case until their 10-point comeback in the final seven minutes against the East’s top-seed, the North Carolina Tar Heels. The return to dominance, in only three short years under Thompson III, is a thing to behold out of Georgetown this season. As for the Buckeyes, they brought in the most hyped freshman in years [Greg Oden], and for the most part, delivered time and time again as a team. Their amazing comeback against Xavier, thanks in large part to the clutch shooting of Ron Lewis, was followed up by exciting games against Tennessee (included both a 20-point comeback and a last-second Oden block) and a nailbiter, of sorts, against a brash, hungry Memphis squad. Both teams earned their tickets to Atlanta and both teams, at least in the back of their minds, have to be thinking about cutting down another net before they leave.

Superstars
Every game needs high-profile names, like it or not. Georgetown might have a Thompson on the bench and a Ewing on the court, but it’s all about Roy Hibbert and Big East Player of the Year Jeff Green. At 7-2, Hibbert is the latest Hoya big-man to talk about. His footwork has improved mightily over his college career and he often poses an indomitable force on the inside block, both offensively and defensively. Watching him play inside, with four fouls, against the Heels frontline last week was a thing of beauty. As for Green, his inside-outside game is among the best in the entire country. Walking violation or not, his play to beat Vandy in the closing seconds was one of pure strength and skill. He can beat you from the outside or put the ball on the court and create his own high percentage shot. Don’t underestimate what that takes on the college level. As for the Buckeyes, Greg Oden is a man among men, even at 19 years old. The 1^st-team All American has avoided stints of foul trouble to make big plays on both sides of the court. Ironically, he may pose an even bigger threat when he’s off the court, as teams often panic to find the best possible offensive scheme to take advantage of the shot-blocker’s absence. Alongside him are plenty of talented players, but none more than high-school teammate and freshman point guard Mike Conley Jr. Not the best shooter on the team, Conley Jr. is one of the nation’s most balanced, quickest, and poised backcourt penetraters. His vision is spectacular and he always seems to rise to the occasion, often as a calming influence, when his team needs him the most.

Winning Streaks
The Big Ten conference and post-season champion Ohio State Buckeyes haven’t lost since a January 9^th visit to Wisconsin, 21-in-a-row win in fact, which included two wins over Wisconsin, two wins over Tennessee, beating Memphis, and slew of other tough conference opponents. Idle number or not, 21-wins is an impressive feat for the overall #1 team in the country. They’ve avoided several near disasters and are only stronger because of it. As for Georgetown, the Big East conference and post-season champions, have won 19 of 20 [only stumble being a 14 point loss at Syracuse, which sure does look good right now for the Orange, thank you] which included that comeback win against North Carolina (in which Thompson III never panicked), two wins against Pitt, and several other notable victories. Both of these teams are playing the best basketball of their seasons just at the right time. Neither of these coaches need to remind these guys the importance of sticking to their game plan and playing within themselves. Teams who win this much already have that luxury.

X-Factors
You might be surprised to hear this, but Ohio State can win without Greg Oden dominating. Georgetown has also survived with Hibbert being in foul trouble throughout big games. Not surprisingly, both big men could spend heavy minutes nursing foul trouble this game. So it’s no surprise Georgetown would look to their top player, Jeff Green, to anchor them. And he most likely will. Ditto with Ohio State, turning to their primary ballhandler Mike Conley Jr., for aid and leadership. And he most likely will deliver. Yet, it is the true role players who will decide this game. For the Buckeyes, that means that Ron Lewis needs to stroke more than a couple idle threes from behind the arc. This task is gonna be a mighty challenge when you consider Georgetown has held Vandy/UNC to 14 of 48 from behind the 3-point line in their last two contests. Jamar Butler, on a scoring rampage as of late, is going to have to hit open shots and get to the line early and often. That’ll be tough mainly due to the suffocating Georgetown defense, experts at keeping such players outside of the lane. Daequan Cook will have to often pass up deep shots that aren’t high percentage; instead, kicking it out and looking to find teammates for better opportunities. It’ll be interesting to see if it’s just too tempting to pass up rare outside opportunities, even from 23+-feet, for the hybrid-shooter. Things aren’t much easier for the Hoya role players easier. Jonathan Wallace and DaJuan Summers have enjoyed mostly-stellar shooting this tournament, but have shown a tendency at times to go cold during the season. Jessie Sapp will certainly have a size advantage over the Buckeye PGs, but will his lack of true speed come to hurt him in late stretches? Patrick Ewing Jr. has improved his play steadily throughout the year, but is he ready to do all the little things – which may include hardly ever taking a shot – on the stage his father once dominated three times in a stellar career? A lot to think about for coaches Matta and Thompson III this weekend.

In the end, I’m ecstatic for tip-off to begin. I would enjoy seeing both teams win and just want one heck of a game. Predictions can wait until Monday night. Tonight’s just about having fun. But I do have one thing to look for…

Ohio State will win if…it shoots better than 35% behind the 3-point line.

Georgetown will win if…Roy Hibbert posts a double-double in 30+-minutes of play.

Now onto the night’s second national semi-final.

National Semifinal #2
The Ultimate Preview: #1. Florida vs. #2. UCLA

In the second national semifinal, we'll have a rematch of last year's championship game. A year later, Ben Howland has officially brought UCLA back to the powerhouse ranks and Billy Donovan has three Final Four appearances and a National Championship before the age of 42. A year removed from the national title, Billy Donovan is fighting off rumors about returning to Kentucky as a head coach, where he was an assistant for Rick Pitino during their glory years in the mid-1990s. Either way, he's cashing in come next week guaranteed.

Stories
Last season, Florida's shocking championship run culminated a full-scale beatdown of storied program UCLA, 73-57. In that game, Joakim Noah and Al Horford posterized Ryan Hollins and whomever else the Bruins decided to put down all night in the blocks. Corey Brewer never let Arron Afflalo out of his sight and Jordan Farmar was deemed useless. When UCLA shot the ball, they were one-and-done.

This year, UCLA is a stronger offensive, but questions remain about their ability to score points regularly. Josh Shipp has taken up a portion of the scoring load while Darren Collison continues to be a very efficient scorer. However, his 7 turnover/1 assist game last Saturday should be something to forget about moving forward. Unlike last year's run to the Final Four, Florida has had the target on their chest all season, but this has not gotten in the way of their courage and resolve.

Superstars
For Florida, one immediately thinks of the three guys who would have been drafted as lottery picks last year - Noah, Horford, and Brewer. Nevertheless, the catalyst for the Gators is none other than Taurean Green, who has been Florida's leading scorer in the NCAA Tournament. He's also rescued the Gators out of some binds, as they trailed in the second half against both Purdue and Butler. The point guard was crucial to both comebacks and eventual slayings of the Hoosier-state upstarts. Don't get me wrong, he'll do his best to include Noah and Horford early and often in order to exploit an obvious mismatch in the paint.

The Bruins feature AP All-America first team selection Arron Afflalo, who finally had *that* game against Kansas. Afflalo scored 24 points on 10-for-15 shooting from the field, including three from behind the arc. Also, the Bruins have the aforementioned Collison, who is undersized, but one of the best perimeter defenders in the nation. He will drive, penetrate, and look to dish to the big men, but he's not afraid to get fouled. More importantly, Collison won't be afraid to take the big shots from 3-point range (46.3%). His dagger heave from behind the arc proved costly in the win over Kansas, and Bill Self will have nightmares for years on end.

X-Factors
Can UCLA force turnovers and turn them into points?
UCLA has proven throughout the season and during the tournament that when they can force turnovers, they will turn them into points. Kansas was made a national example last Saturday. Let's not forget the flipside of this argument. UCLA committed 24 turnovers last Saturday. If that's the case, then Florida will be game-planning for Monday with a half left to play. As for Florida, they kept Oregon in the game on Sunday by committing a bevy of careless turnovers. UCLA needs to turn Florida over early and often.

Florida
v. Purdue 15 turnovers
v. Butler 11 turnovers
v. Oregon 18 turnovers

Three pointers?
Florida from behind the arc
v. Purdue 5-18
v. Butler 8-19
v. Oregon 11-24

If Taurean Green begins to hit threes like he did in the Butler and Oregon games, UCLA has very little room for error. Meanwhile, Lee Humphrey is back to his old self, hitting 7 threes against in the regional final. For UCLA, they'll need Shipp and Roll to hit open shots in order to take pressure off of Collison and Afflalo, who will have their hands full. It should be noted though that Florida's increasing reliance on the deep ball may be their Achilles' Heel because UCLA is a better rebounding team than their size indicates.

UCLA production on the frontline
The real media is hyping Noah and Horford, and you can't really blame them. I watched last year's championship game and they seemed to dunk on every other possession. This year, they're not as dominant, but both are very good, especially Horford down the stretch. I would argue though that UCLA's frontline is stronger defensively than last year; moreover, they know their role. 4 guys (Mata, Mbah a Moute, Aboya, Keefe) with 20 fouls - provide help-side defense, rebound, box out, and be in position to attack the rim off of dribble penetration. There is no equivocation whatsoever.

Point Guard Leadership
If Florida wins the national championship on Monday night, look no further than the point guard. Brewer's been off, Humphrey was off until the regional final, Noah's been ordinary, and the bench has been non-existent. Green has hit the streak three-pointers and settled down the Gators whenever the opposition has gone on runs.

UCLA will win if... they cause 20 turnovers and hit open shots in the second half

Florida will win if... they stick to their guns and limit UCLA to one shot on every possession

NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference) - From 16 to 4

**Before I get into the meat of this post, I found this glorious clip on YouTube. All Madden ’92 lovers will have nostalgia tingling down their spine. Check it out.**

In the first weekend, the chalk held for the most part. In the second weekend, the chalk held almost entirely. The only exceptions were not even upsets with UCLA defeating Kansas (in California, mind you) and Georgetown upending North Carolina in overtime. With regard to UCLA’s win in California, I think they would’ve won on any court on Saturday night, save Phog Allen. The stronger in-game tacticians won in both of those games.

Conference (in order by RPI rank)	Actual Record	Exp. Record	Actual vs. Exp. Diff.	Sweet 16 teams	Elite 8 Teams	Final Four Teams
ACC	7-7	11-6	-2.5	1	1	0
SEC	9-4	7-4	+1.0	3	1	1
Pac-10	10-5	9-6	+1.0	3	2	1
Big Ten	8-5	8-5	0.0	1	1	1
Big East	7-5	8-6	0.0*	2	1	1
Missouri Valley	2-2	2-2	0	1	0	0
Big XII	6-4	8-3	-1.5	2	1	0
Mountain West	2-2	2-2	0.0	1	0	0
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-2	1-2	+0.5	1	0	0
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* higher winning percentage for actual record

The chart above demonstrates the poor performance by the ACC relative to their regular season accolades. To send the most teams (7) and only send one to the Sweet 16 is weak. This marks the second straight year in which the ACC had a 1-seed that failed to make it to the Final Four.

For the second straight year, the SEC outperforms its expectations, but not quite like last year. Had Vanderbilt and Tennessee won games that they should have, that would’ve meant that half of the SEC East was in the Elite 8. That’s crazy good. Does it beg the question of including Georgia over Arkansas? Not at all. Georgia wasn’t the same team after losing one of its leading scorers.

The story though should be the Pac-10, who was the only to send two teams to the Elite 8. Given the season previews from real media outlets that have access to first-hand information, I expected 3-4 bids this season. They’re also the perennial doormat during the NCAA tournament and a constant focus of criticism whenever a representative (usually Stanford) falls as a 1-seed during the first weekend. In a 10-team league, five teams were no-doubters and only one came into question (Stanford) when it came to Selection Sunday. UCLA and Oregon took care of business while USC was 1-2 contributors away from fending off Carolina in the round of 16.

As for the Final 4, I had Texas A&M instead of Ohio State, so I’d like to thank Memphis for playing its best game in two years in the Sweet 16 matchup. I’m obligated to picking Georgetown versus Florida, because that’s what I had in my bracket.

Given the circumstances, I can see UCLA defeat Florida, because the Gators have needed excellent long distance shooting to get where they are right now. Florida has had a lot of unforced errors on offense. If the Bruins stick to their guns and play stellar perimeter defense, annoy the big men, and score points, then I like their chances of playing on Monday.

With little margin for error, the Ohio State/Georgetown game is a pick’em. I’ve characterized the Buckeyes as lucky all tournament long, but they’re obviously talented, well-coached and don’t give up when they’re down. They also just played their most complete offensive game of the season. Let’s just say that it won’t be a repeat performance. Who will stop Jeff Green? Is Cook, Hunter, or Lighty up to the challenge? At this point, Jeff Green may be the most lethal player in the tournament because of his ability to affect games in so many different ways, even when he’s not scoring points.

Sunday's Finest: Elite 8 Coverage

... Midwest Region ...

#1. Florida vs. #3. Oregon [aka The National Champs vs. Team Track Meet]
Florida wins it 85-77 in a game played in the single digits. Florida asserted itself on both sides of the boards. More importantly, they hit three-pointers at a very high clip, which makes them unstoppable. When Taurean Green gets into an offensive groove, the whole team gets elevated to a different level. When Lee Humphrey is on, you'll have bad dreams that go into next season. Just trust me on that one.

Len Elmore has made too much out of the "struggles" of Tajuan Porter early on, but it was validated in the 2nd half when Porter's shooting slump translated into poor decisions. To expect a repeat performance of Friday night is preposterous. Porter still penetrated effectively. After letting Porter take the accolades for a night, Aaron Brooks re-emerged today as the Ducks' go-to guy. One major trend stood out - whenever Oregon cut the lead to two scores, either the Ducks could not execute or Florida prevented them from doing so. That's the mark of a champion.

The Florida Intangible
The ultimate intangible for Florida is targeting key members of the opposition and getting them into foul trouble. After that, they are able to attack the reserves as well as starters who are trying to avoid prohibitive foul situations. This is exactly how they exploited Butler on Friday night and how they intend on cutting the nets in Atlanta. Today was no different.

An Honest Question
Will Al Horford ever get called for a player control foul when backing down on the opposition? (Note: I would say Horford/Noah, but Noah is so out of control at times that even the worst referee would blow the whistle.)
As Walter Sopchek says in the Big Lebowski, "This isn't [Viet]'nam. There are rules."

... East Region ...
#1. North Carolina vs. #2. Georgetown [aka 12 Deep vs. Hoya Paranoia]

After the Hoyas were down literally all game, they fought tooth and nail to tie up the Tar Heels in the final minute. When the overtime began, the game was over. The Hoyas rolled to a 96-84 overtime victory and their trip to the Final Four in more than twenty years.

Despite 94 combined points in the first half, Georgetown dictated the pace of the game in the second half. Both teams had their cold streaks in the second stanza and Carolina had a 5-11 point lead for the majority of the half. For the first 32 minutes, North Carolina owned the offensive glass (namely, Deon Thompson) and were demonstrating a relative repeat performance of the USC game given the talent of the opposing frontcourt personnel.

Following the under-eight minute timeout, the game turned on a dime. Shortly thereafter, Brandan Wright picked up his fourth foul, and Carolina hit a brief spell. Meanwhile, the Hoyas seemed to score on every trip. In the waning minutes, Carolina took no less than three ill-advised early in the shot clock. All resulted in empty trips. The lack of continuity and the lack of defensive intensity - both being by-products from youth - stifled the Tar Heels' ability to finish off Georgetown.

With less than a minute remaining, Jonathan Wallace hit the shot that others may have seemed afraid to take. As a result, Georgetown tied the game. In my biased, mean world syndrome-affected mind (note: I'm a UNC fan, and have seen many near-giveaways against much weaker teams than Georgetown this season, who I picked to win it all in my single sheet of integrity), Georgetown had won the game because I had little to no faith in Roy Williams' ability to either select the right personnel or choose the right play to break Georgetown's mettle.

When the coach called the timeout for the final play, I expected a well-scripted play. What we got was a generic curl scripted for the wrong player shooting the ball without a single move to Hansbrough. Although Wayne Ellington will live to be a terrific player, he is for all intents and purposes, a young streak shooter. And when your young streak shooter is 2-for-8 (and a freshman), why not script the [horrific] play for the more seasoned pressure shooter, Reyshawn Terry? I would have preferred the boring feed inside to Hansbrough against Roy "I played masterfully with 4 fouls" Hibbert and having Terry on the perimeter waiting for the collapse on the ball, but what do I know? I'm not a coach, never will be, and would be humbled by the opportunity to come within two sniffs of press row.

The end game is that the better team with the better in-game tactician won. Carolina should be very strong next year unless both Wright and Hansbrough declare for the NBA Draft. Georgetown faces a slightly different Ohio State team compared to the one they defeated last year in the NCAA tournament. Just slightly.

Key Stats
North Carolina had a free throw attempts and makes edge of 34-18 and 29-12, respectively. The difference is more stratified when considering that Georgetown made many if not most of its trips during the extra session. To make up for that, JTIII's men shot 8-for-14 from 3-point range, with the underrated Jonathan Wallace hitting 3 of 4 including the one to tie it up.

Fun Facts
- Brad Slepetz, architect of the Hashemi-Slepetz Percentage Index (an evolving alternate to the RPI), has his second school going to the Final Four in as many years. Last year, Slepetz lived the dream at George Mason University. Over the summer, Slepetz, like many before him, bolted for the greener pastures of Georgetown.
- I muted Billy Packer with 9:59 left in the first half after further suggesting that America is blind (insisting Jeff Green did not travel on Friday night). I went back to full volume shortly after the start of the second half.
- Jeff Green had about the quietest 20-point performance he's had all year.

Friday Night Tournament Previews

Last night, the chalk held and I remain disgusted by Tennessee's inability to put away Ohio State. Tonight, we might be in store for the same, which is good for college basketball's elite as well as the ratings for the Elite 8 games.

Clement and I are splitting up the regions. He's got Georgetown/Vanderbilt and Oregon/UNLV and I've got the two #1 seeds versus the upstart #5 seeds.

East Region Game #1
#2. Georgetown vs. #6. Vanderbilt
It's tough to pick directly against your Cinderella, but I expect the Hoyas to dictate every piece of this game on Friday. While Hibbert often seems entrenched in granite, he has looked smooth enough thus far, alongside Jeff Green (who always seems to play well when it matters most). The key may be role players like Sapp, Ewing Jr., and Summers if the Hoyas plan to take the wind out of the sails of the Commodores. Speaking of which, don't underestimate what it took to take down Washington State in double overtime. Often the hardest part of advancing deep into the tournament are those difficult early games. Derrick Byars is an insane talent who demands the ball when it matters (which coaches always love). While Vandy has a lot going against them, the SEC has upset the Big East before in similar surprising fashion (ala Alabama over the Orange in 2004).

Players to Watch: Patrick Ewing Jr. [Georgetown] & Shan Foster [Vanderbilt]
Moment of Truth: If Vandy falls down 6 or 8 within a few minutes, will they attempt to shoot the gym out with poorly-placed threes…or work the ball through the Georgetown defense and take smartly-placed threes? We shall see.

East Region Game #2
#1. North Carolina vs. #5. USC
When analyzing this game, one question immediately comes to mind. Okay, about three. Does USC have enough bodies to compete with North Carolina for the last 10 minutes of the game? Can USC get a repeat performance of Sunday from both Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett? Did Lodrick Stewart really have a root canal on Tuesday or are they just trying to soften up the Heels? One thing Tim Floyd can exploit is the relative weakness of Carolina's swingmen. Nick Young is a stud. Ellington is young and Reyshawn Terry is struggling with potential strep. Gabe Pruitt and Ty Lawson are expected to entertain.

Players to Watch: Daniel Hackett [USC] & Reyshawn Terry [North Carolina]
Moment of Truth: If Carolina is down late, who will be the player to step up alongside Tyler Hansbrough? How will Tim Floyd counteract the depth of Carolina, especially in the frontcourt?

Midwest Region Game #1
#1. Florida vs. #5. Butler
Another contrast in styles in store for this game, but not to the extent of Kansas and Southern Illinois last night. The Gators score 80 per game while the Bulldogs only give up 57, so expect Butler's ball-handlers to slow this game down. If Butler wins this game, it will be because of their ball security courtesy of Graves and Green, their ability to get to the free throw line, and of course, the trifecta. The annoyance factor must come into play as well for Butler. Florida has to be good for 30-35 minutes to be certain of victory and be resolute in their decision making. They must also take advantage of the hefty size disparity between the national champion and the mid-major. If Taurean Green can hold his own and find Humphrey, then Florida should be playing on Sunday against the Oregon/UNLV winner.

Players to Watch: Taurean Green [Florida] and Pete Campbell [Butler]
Moment of Truth: Butler's poise and ability to make open shots will determine whether this one will be decided in the final 5 minutes. If such is the case, chalk may finally not hold.

Midwest Region Game #2
#3. Oregon vs. #7. UNLV
An underrated game to say the least…in fact it's the one I'm dying to see. You might snicker, but the coaches are talented [Kent & Kruger] and the teams are filled with talented player who are fun to watch [i.e. Tajuan Porter & Kevin Kruger]. Both teams have been a little fortunate to face sub-par shooting [especially UNLV], yet both teams capitalize on opponent's mistakes and have performed well when their leads appear to be shrinking to nothing. In fact, it's this back-and-forth style which makes this game so intriguing. It could definitely be worth of an overtime session…or two.

Players to Watch: Wendell White [UNLV] & Bryce Taylor [Oregon]
Moment of Truth: UNLV has been a team of spurts, runs, and often droughts this season. Oregon could be the hottest team in the country right now. So in essence, UNLV needs to start well during the first 4-6 minutes. I'm not saying they need to be up 12, but they better not be down 12.

NCAA Tournament Preview

We are now just hours and minutes away from the start of the NCAA Tournament. Clement and Paymon look into Final Four picks, what to expect, what not to expect, and the names who'll make this tournament memorable.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Clement

Final Four: [East] UNC, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
-UNC has the most actual talent in college basketball and has a very experienced coaching staff, headed of course by Roy Williams, who has worked his depth quite well this season. They’ll outlast Durant and truth be told, I don’t buy Georgetown’s backcourt enough to get past the Heels in a potential dynamic Elite Eight matchup.
-I’ve been ridin’ Acie Law IV all season long. He’s the most clutch player I’ve seen in college basketball this season and I believe the Aggie can control the tempo of the game easily with teams like Memphis or Nevada. A&M also has just enough outside shooting, especially with the streaky Kavaliauskas, to keep Oden away from the boards enough to upset the Buckeyes. My love for them clearly means they’re out by the first weekend though.
-UCLA is the team to beat out West, never leaving the state of California if they keep winning, until the trip to Atlanta for their second-straight Final Four. While Kansas provides scary matchups, Darren Collison is healthier than he’s been in recent weeks and their depth is sorely underrated.
-Florida is the team to beat. While such monikers have plagued squads like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years…it’s also aided teams like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years. As long as they stay healthy and can get two strong shooting nights from Lee Humphrey out of four, they’ll wind up back in the Final Four.

National Championship : UNC vs. Florida
-Predictable, I know. Yet I also felt that way two years ago when Illinois and UNC seemed the two clear favorites to reach the title game. Yet, I see the Baby Heels falling a bit short this time. Horford and Noah may get a lot more calls against Hansbrough than many UNC fans, or Gator-haters, are willing to accept. I also believe Taurean Green can run with the best of them and would be the tipping point for a narrow 5-point Gator victory. Repeat!

Tournament MOP: Al Horford, Florida Gators
-While Noah is the poster-boy, Horford is the better talent. He’ll dominate against UCLA again and find himself ending up with 16 and 11 against the Heels. This guy will be picked in the draft right before teammate Noah…and this will show EVERYONE why.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
-Alright Winthrop. Put-up or shut up time. Notre Dame is lethal from behind the arc, but more often than not you die by the three before you live by it for two or three straight tournament games. Look for Craig Bradshaw’s name early and often if the Eagles have a real shot of upsetting the Irish. Memo to Mike Bray: wear a tie, please! You look hideous in the sport/coat and solid shirt. Hideous.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: #11. VCU over #6. Duke & #12. Old Dominion over #5. Butler
-Nothing but biased CAA love. ODU bit me two years ago, when Michigan State rolled all the way to the Final Four after defeating Isaiah Hunter and company. Ditto with VCU, who I naively had defeating Wake (they did only lose by 1) only three tournament brackets ago (my worst ever, by the way). Either way, go CAA go.

Sleeper/Cinderella: Vanderbilt Commodores [East Region] & UNLV Runnin’ Rebels [Midwest Region]
-Vandy’s style of play could have them trailing by fifteen merely fifteen minutes in their opening game. Yet, I view Washington State as the weakest 3-seed (much as I did Tennessee as the weakest 2-last year losing to Wichita State in my bracket) and think Vandy can shoot lights out against Georgetown and control the pact of the game. Who knows if they can honestly make the Elite Eight, but why not have some fun? As for UNLV, it’s nothing more than a feeling and their RPI. That’s all I can really say.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Nevada’s guard Marcellus Kemp
-He can drop 25 and all you thought about all game long was Fazekas. It’s imperative to get by Creighton AND to match up well with the athletes of Memphis that the Wolfpack rely on their best pure perimeter player. I just have a hunch the name Kemp may sound like the name Wheeler did several tournaments ago.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Tubby Smith, Kentucky
-Don’t let the AD comment’s fool you, the guy needs a win. Villanova is probably favored and Tubby knows this. He needs the opportunity to stun a #1 as badly as any coach with an underachieving program this year.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Kansas Jayhawks as National Champs
-Losses to Bucknell and Bradley aren’t the worst things in the world, but what has Bill Self done in Kansas except recruit exceptionally well? While their road is relatively easy until the Elite Eight, it’s put-up or shut-up time for a school that has never won the biggest games since the days of Danny Manning.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Texas upsetting North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen
-I don’t even know if Texas will be in this game to be honest. Ditto with UNC if Michigan State is up to old ridiculous tricks. Riding freshman is fun (see Pervis, Melo, and a cast of others)…but it’s still rare that it works out with a Final Four appearance. Augustin might be just as key as Durant is in all of this. Ditto with the outside shooting of Abrams. Yet, Rick Barnes is starting to become one of the better coaches, and not just recruiters, in the nation. If the mask does bother Hansbrough just enough and Reyshawn Terry can’t shoot at all for one night (which is never out of the question), perhaps Texas could survive in a shootout with the Tar Heels. Perhaps.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Paymon

Final Four: [East] Georgetown, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
- Yes, I’m going against my Tar Heels. Could it be the youth? Could it be playing to the level of their opponents? It could also be that should they make it to the Elite 8, they’ll likely have Hoya Paranoia waiting in the wings. I’m not saying that we’ll see the Hoyas faithful clad in Starter jackets, but they’ll be at East Rutherford cheering on their team. Anyways, the better, more experienced team wins.
- In the South, is it that I love Acie Law IV a lot or that I remain unimpressed by the Buckeyes? Mind you, they embarrassed a Butch-less Wisconsin on Sunday. If the Aggies can overcome Memphis in the Sweet 16, I can see Joseph Jones playing the game of his life and Josh Carter hitting the 3s to assist the aforementioned Law IV en route to a Final Four trip.
- A lot of Kansas and Memphis fans have a legit beef with UCLA. For the second time in as many years, UCLA gets the second, but will be playing in their home state as the #2 seed should they advance to the regional semifinals. Home-state advantage or not, the Bruins need to do things: forget about their last two games and get Darren Collison’s sprained ankle to heal.
- I’ll let the real media gush over Florida. They’re good. Nothing I say will be new to you, so I won’t insult your intelligence. If they play Wisconsin in the regional final and Brian Butch is healthy, we may have a game on our hands. Otherwise, they’ll be Gator bait.

National Championship : Georgetown vs. Florida
- Georgetown is the sexy pick to make the finals and take out the Gators. Why? Last year, they came the closest. At this point last season, the Hoyas weren’t quite this dominant. While Georgetown is the hottest team in the country and the team that absolutely no one wants to face, they may be due for the momentary lapse due to their relative inexperience in the backcourt. Last season, the Hoyas let the eventual champions escape - not so this year. Green, Humphrey, and Brewer will give Georgetown fits, but the other Green (Jeff) will be cutting down the nets as he determines whether to go pro.

Tournament MOP: Jeff Green, Georgetown Hoyas
- Green epitomizes the hard working team that JTIII has developed. He has all the tools necessary for the NBA yet he wasn't even in the Top 150 recruits according to rivals.com. Additionally, he has gotten over his weakness, free throw shooting, making him even more of a go-to guy down the stretch for the Hoyas. His calming presence to the inexperienced guards will not be overlooked by admirers.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
- My prediction is that a lot of 3-point shots will be hoisted. We all know about the stellar three-guard lineups of both teams, but it will be the matchups inside that determine the victor. My bet is on the Kiwi – Craig Bradshaw.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: Old Dominion over Butler; Winthrop over Notre Dame; VCU over Duke
- Yes, I’m also guilty of the biased CAA love; however, having watched these teams on multiple teams, I know that both can bring it especially when given favorable draws. In ODU’s case, which ODU team will come out? Valdas Vasylius can really have a whale of a game if he asserts himself inside. Watch out for Gerald Lee, who is a star in the making. As for Winthrop, I’ve been touting this team all year, and with good reason. The worst team they lost to all season was Maryland. I’m sure Notre Dame fans use the transitive property (i.e. we beat Maryland and you lost to them; therefore, we are better than you – AKA “The ODU fan base special”) to assert their pre-dominance. I just like Winthrop, their determination, and I feel bad for Notre Dame if they lose, because they’ve played well the last time to rid of themselves of potential fraud status (see Illinois and Purdue). As for Duke, I haven’t liked them at all this year and not because I hate them intrinsically as a UNC supporter. They’re not deep, their ball-handling is suspect, and VCU forces turnovers. Greg Paulus needs to play one of his best games and Scheyer (not this guy) needs to hit those 3s if Duke wants to plays Pitt or Wright State (or Shight State, as my brother put it).

Sleeper/Cinderella: Winthrop Eagles [Midwest Region]
- I would say Southern Illinois, but the Salukis are pretty well-known for their suffocating defense. With that said, the easy choice is Winthrop out of the Big South Conference. All this team does is win games.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Tony Young, G, Southern Illinois.
- Young is a guy that every coach wants on his team -- a physical defender, a solid long distance shooter, and an overall scrapper. If the Salukis end up making noise for the right reasons, Young will play a formidable role.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Bill Self, Kansas Jayhawks
- How many more seasons can he go without a long tournament run? If memory serves correct, Self’s longest run was with Tulsa in 2000 when they lost in the Elite 8 to #8 seed North Carolina. He needs a run like none other, as it’s unrealistic to expect all of those talented players to stick around for a few more years.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Georgetown Hoyas as National Champs
- In a way, I’m calling myself out. Think about it though. Who has Georgetown beaten this year outside of Pittsburgh twice? People are wooed by the way they play and their quiet confidence – a stark contrast to the sideshow that is the Florida Gators.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Southern Illinois getting to the Sweet Sixteen
-Let’s get one thing straight. The Salukis do not play an attractive style of basketball. However, they play great defense and are tough to beat when Tatum and Falker are on. Strangely enough, many are writing off SIU as they face a stingy Holy Cross capable of the upset and potentially Virginia Tech, who are among the most athletic teams in the field.