Six Thoughts on the Field of 65: Pay & Clement Vent

Here were our final bracket projections
We were proud of our work (63 out of 65), but less than enthused with several unfair major-biased outcomes and several odd-seedings.

Chris Wright might be the most talented player NOT in the field,
but his injuries were not a reason Dayton should have been allowed in the field.
Credit: ViewImages

1) Mid-Majors Get the Rawest of Deals

34 at-large bids. 28 go to “Majors” and 6 go to “Mid-Majors”. How sweet! Sadly, ESPN’s Jay Bilas (picking the four #1 seeds, pansy) openly stated during ESPN's watered-down Bracketology 101 that mid-majors get a break on their schedules (please, who will schedule 95% of them?) while CBS’s brilliant duo of Nantz/Packer (hah!) believe the mid-majors are going to continue to lose steam as conferences continue to expand. I'm asking this to all parties involved: explain to me how Illinois State isn’t getting half the pub of half-runs like Dayton, UMASS, Virginia Tech, and even UAB (since when was Conference USA reputable in the least bit?) as being snubbed? Point is: ESPN needs to cancel Bracketbusters. They don’t matter. It just excites those of us who support the little guys and boosts established mid-majors in that particular season (i.e. Kent State, Gonzaga, Drake, and Butler.) VCU’s win at Akron (or winning the CAA by 3-games) was useless and the MVC (8-2 in Bracketbusters) couldn’t land a second team in the field while the Sun Belt got 2 and the WCC 3 (Illinois State again, anyone?)

2) Sheet of Integrity: Who Cares!

I’m not going to hide my emotions. I’m far from excited about this bracket. It’s going to be #1-team heavy in most Final Four predictions, experts and novices (not me though!). UNC, Kansas, and UCLA will be in at least 75% of most bracketeer’s Final Fours. Is Memphis, as a #1 seed, truly a wild-card? At least Bob Knight picked Pittsburgh to win the while thing. With so few mid-majors present (go Mason!), Oregon a 9-seed, several rather ludicrous seedings (Kansas State all the way down to #11, Kent State a 9-seed, and USC only a 6-spot?) and plenty of undeserving teams (nearly every seed 10 through 12)…how can I be excited??? Nice try tournament committee matching up UNC/Indiana potentially and offering up Beasley/Mayo in the opening round. Pay and I instantly realized that both were simply TV-based matchups. Those typically don’t work out, either. I have to fairly admit though, a small portion of my skepticism is rooted in the fact that my childhood team is the Orange and I am an alum of VCU.

3) Last Two Out?

I’m ecstatic Ohio State (2-10 vs. the RPI Top 50) and Virginia Tech (1-7 against the RPI Top 50) didn’t ride overrated final weeks to get in. As inspiring as Seth Greenberg (who I love) tried to be following Tech’s 2-point last-second loss to the Heels, Greenberg yelled and screamed because his team didn’t have the credentials to lay out for anyone. You don't get into the tournament for "almost-beating" anyone either. No matter how close it seems or where the game is played. As for the Buckeyes, two home wins against Big Ten squads just ain’t enough. My frustration with Oregon’s #9 seed is only quenched minimally with the exclusion of the Buckeyes and Hokies.

4) Switching Around a Few Things…

Interesting, to say the least, to see Georgetown acquiesced so much (first for not being able to play in DC and for Texas not being able to be grouped in the same region as Texas). In fact, they might’ve moved down two full rankings and allowed Kansas a much easier pass to the Final Four (remember who coaches them though) and an easier path for them to the Elite Eight against Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk. Tennessee was arguably the 5^th or 6^th overall seed and is now in the same bracket as overall #1 UNC. Is this fair? Probably not.

5) An Arizona Argument Not Involving John McCain

Arizona proved how mighty a fantastic (#2 overall) SOS is. While the RPI had to matter behind closed doors, it’s clear conferences and conference marks didn’t (according to the tourney chairman, at least). That’s the only reason I can conceive ASU (who swept Arizona and owns a win versus Stanford which Zona doesn’t) was the first Pac-10 team out and Arizona was the last Pac-10 team in (again, don’t get me STARTED on Oregon). Arizona State had a putrid out-of-conference schedule. Then again, it is their fault LSU and Illinois stunk up the joint? ASU also won against #3-seed Xavier by 22 points! I knew Arizona would be in, but I don’t like it at the expense of ASU, no matter how many RPI Top 100 opponents they had. (I also HATE Arizona. Yeah, I said it.)

6) Predictions and Projections

For the last eight years, I have taken my pre-season champion pick immediately after I first see the field of 64/65. At least when it’s humanely possible. At the beginning of the season, here was my Final Four: North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas, and Michigan State (whoops). I won’t reveal who I picked as my pre-season champs; however, it’s fair to say they will be a popular pick to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Oh yeah, MJ didn’t play there. There’s one clue.

Note: The four-letter network has angered me a lot over the past few weeks. However, their special 'Black Magic' (Documentary about athletes who attended black colleges and universities, specifically during the Civil Rights Movement) is powerful and moving. It should be mandatory viewing in ALL classrooms (and will be in my own).

…Pay will be up shortly to rant and rave much more effectively…

Clement has cited many of the bones that I was to pick, so to avoid being redundant, I will mention some other things on my mind following the Tournament Selection Show.

1) Bracket Results

As Clement stated, we successfully picked 63 of 65 teams in correct fashion. Here are the unofficial bracket metrics:

Correct Teams: 63/65

Exact Seeds: 32/65

Within One Seed: 52/65

In sum, I am not too happy with the results given the amazing work that both Clement and I put in. Did I mention humility was among my strongest attributes? While I am not surprised by the inclusion of either South Alabama or Oregon (they were our last two out), their seedings remain curious. This leads us to ...

2) What On Earth Were You Thinking?

As a fan, I love that George Mason (my alma mater) is in a pod with Notre Dame (i.e. the team that every mid-major wants to play) and Washington State. As someone who projects brackets, I was shocked. Up until Arkansas choked, WASU was our top #7 seed and was immediately ousted from the conversation for a #4 seed. Why? Try 0-5 against the conference brass. If you don't buy that one because UCLA and Stanford are really superb, why don't you consider their 4-7 mark against the RPI Top 50? Were the road wins versus Boise State, Baylor and Gonzaga in non-conference play more important than a 10-8 finish?

3) Do Vanderbilt's Wins at Memorial Gymnasium Count As Neutral Court Victories?

That's the only way they deserve a #4 seed. Yes, I understand that they defeated mighty Tennessee. So did the team that forgot how to play basketball, Arkansas - not to mention, they did it on an actual neutral court. Oh wait. They also defeated the Commodores twice. I laud Kevin Stallings for his amazing coaching job the last two seasons and his ability to craft a schedule that largely avoids facing off against the lower-third of Division I college basketball. With that said, the bulk of Vandy's results were within the friendly confines of Memorial Gymnasium (a very underrated home court advantage). They sustained 3 losses of 16 points or more away from home, two of which were against non-tournament teams. I apologize if I sound hostile. I just provide the facts, rather than some distorted, politically correct hogwash.

4) While I Love Blake Griffin, I Am Not In Love With Oklahoma's #6 Seed

Since January 27, you have had floor seats to my somewhat unhealthy man crush on Blake Griffin. Though the Sooners sustained injury after injury (by the way, their medical team deserves an award) this season, they had 11 losses, went 6-8 against the RPI Top 50 and were a meager 8-8 on road and neutral settings. Oklahoma had zero signature victories and had its best victory (by the seedings) in Charleston against West Virginia. Meanwhile, Phil Martelli has to be licking his chops with this favorable matchup and a veteran team led by Pat Calathes. If the team that beat Xavier twice comes out, then this may be decided by the third media timeout.

5) Let's Not Fake The Funk

Over the course of a few months in which you become familiar with team resumes, it's comical to think that conference affiliation is not brought up. It's irrelevant. Why? Because if you actually know the resumes of teams, then you know their credentials. If you still have a few brain cells remaining, you can extrapolate the conference in which the team plays. Since everyone knows exactly who is being discussed, let's talk about conference affiliation. Let's bring up the records of double-digit seeds from major conferences in years past. Let's just be honest and lay it all out there. Then, we can all have our ice cream celebrating your informed decisions.

6) Penalize Conferences That Play Their Tournaments on Home Courts Of Non #1 seeds

I'm talking to you, Mountain West and West Coast Conferences. UNLV earned a #8 seed with two home wins against BYU (only wins against the RPI Top 50), the second leading to an automatic bid. Mind you, the Runnin' Rebels required late-game heroics against basketball giants Texas Christian and benefited immensely from the home crowd against a determined yet considerably weak Utah squad. In the West Coast Conference, we all know about San Diego. If you watched the tournament, you could not have scripted better choke jobs from St. Mary's (15-2 run to end regulation forcing overtime) and Gonzaga (they fell two seed lines for not showing up entirely). As a result, the tournament selection committee made an unprecedented decision to include three teams from the 14th-rated conference in what was a perfect storm scenario - both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are legit. In addition to punishing conferences that play tournaments on the home court of a team that did not win the regular season, let us punish teams that lose their conference tournament on their home floor (South Alabama), especially when it's not to the team that wins the automatic bid.

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Thursday FourCast: Bracket & Bubble Banter

by Chris Clement

Since I enjoyed adding “talking points” so much to Pay’s work last night, let’s do it again!

Here’s the Thursday edition. Oh yeah, here’s yesterday’s bracket projections.

1) A-10 Quarterfinals: Dayton/Xavier & Big East Quarterfinals: Villanova/Georgetown
-So maybe both don’t deserve to share the top spot; however, they both face tall mountains to climb against their conference’s regular season champions. While the Wildcats seem a much safer bubble-in squad (a 19-point brutalization over the ‘Cuse) than the Flyers, both might seal their ticket with wins early-Saturday afternoon. This could also mean relax, relief, or pure terror from the likes of Temple, UMass and St. Joe’s.

2) PAC-10 Quarterfinals: Arizona State vs. USC
-Though we have Arizona State in the field, they are not a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday. This is not an ideal that is shared by all bracketologists. In fact, as often one of the last four in/last four out wins games they are not expected to win, the room for error for the PAC-10's #5 seed may be thinning by the day. Enter O.J. Mayo and the streaking Trojans who have the juice to drive a buzzsaw through the PAC-10 Tournament. While a loss to the Trojans might not throw them on the wrong side of the bubble, might a terrible one combined with Arizona and Oregon booking trips to the semis?

3) PAC-10 Quarterfinals, Take 2: Oregon vs. Washington State
-Could the Ducks become the first PAC-10 squad with a losing record to enter March Madness? With a recent sweep of ASU/Arizona, the Quack Attack (admit it, you like it) might seem as close to a bubble-lock as possible with a win over the Cougars. Lose the game and suddenly bubble-bound Arizona surpasses you for good and potentially 60%, rather than 70%, of the conference is tourney-bound.

4) Bubbly Bubblitis: UNLV/TCU & Miami(FL)/NC State & Florida/Alabama & Georgia/Ole Miss
-Okay, I could go on for hours. Perhaps, I could talk about the entire A-10 tournament. Instead, I selected these four games to break down the situations (or plights) of four types of bubble squads.
UNLV: Take the lead from San Diego and defend home court all the way into March Madness. Without a conference tournament title, you and New Mexico may bump each other into the last four out column.
Miami (FL): You appear more than safe after finishing 5th in the ACC and owning a win over Duke: An embarrassing loss to last year’s ACC Tournament runner-up NC State.
Florida: You now know reaching the SEC Tournament Finals may be the worst you can do. With such a young squad, does Billy “the Kid” have any magic left for the two-time defending champions to cling to?
Ole Miss: You’ve been called out by Pay as a potential sleeper. Who is my team to watch come conference tournament time? Anybody say…Nebraska??? ME!

See you Friday morning…hopefully with a little clarity.

2008 NCAA Projections - March 12, 2008

Last night, the committee arrived in Indianapolis. Tomorrow, they will submit their list of “lock teams”. As of the end of play on Tuesday night, we estimate that the teams listed in seed lines #1-7 are considered to be “locks” for the NCAA Tournament. While I love what Kentucky has done, they are truly one injury away from being on the outside looking in despite an impressive 12-4 record in the SEC and having crushed the subjective eye test since the Vanderbilt debacle.

That leaves 18 bids for the taking. What does that mean? In brief, the next four days of basketball will go a long way in determining who is in and out (Sunday is not a big moving day for tournament seedings, unless your name is Joe Lunardi and the clock has just struck 5:50pm ET). In other words, no team beyond Mississippi State excluding automatic bids are safe.

Here are Paymon’s early thoughts …

• If teams are considered by team and not WCC #3, it will be hard to unseat St. Mary’s.
• Davidson deserves a massive jump in the seedings because they took care of business. Because some bubble teams will win unexpectedly, they will likely become a #10 seed.
• The fate of VCU and South Alabama from here on out may be determined by their opponents who have games yet to play. The decider is multifactorial. First, VCU won its conference by 3 games. Second, they won three neutral/away games in non-conference play.
• I’m having a difficult time understanding why Arizona State is out of Joe Lunardi’s bracket. They earned the #5 seed in the nation’s best conference; a conference which uses a round-robin scheduling mechanism. In doing so, they defeated the conference’s #2, #4, #6 and #7 (sweep) teams in addition to the A-14’s #1 team. In a field with such a dearth of good wins, the Sun Devils don’t have enough bad losses to counteract their good wins.
• If Florida and Ole Miss BOTH make the SEC semifinals, it will be a play-in/elimination game.
• While results are important, scorelines on the neutral court play a role as well. If a team such as Ohio State loses badly against Michigan State, then their recent home resume-padders are diluted. This may result in an invitation to the Not Important Tournament.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, which is highlighted by over ten hours of opening round coverage of the Big East Tournament, Clement tackles four games that are on his mind. To no one’s surprise who reads this blog religiously, we start with …

1) Big East Tournament: Syracuse vs. Villanova
-Far from fans of South Alabama and Gonzaga after Monday Night, the Orange and the Wildcats both sit at 9-9 in the Big East. Both own a win on the other’s homecourt, both have underachieved quite a bit this season and both are in just about every media pundits “last four out”. This game obviously appears to be an elimination game. The loser stands little to no chance of securing anything but a 2-seed in the NIT. In fact, the winner may simply be the Big East team first left out. A win over Georgetown would be vital for either to stake a truly legitimate claim. The problem is: if all these at-large bids keep closing up, is a semi-final appearance truly enough for either Big East .500 squad?

2) Big East Tournament Opening Round: West Virginia vs. Providence
-A home win against Pitt this past week almost assuredly locked the Mountaineers into the last “safe bid” in the Big East. Right? Not so fast, especially when you consider how strong the media has been pushing them onto the bubble and their somewhat hidden #5 seed in the Big East Tournament. Not to mention that 10+-win in the Big East is nice, but not as nice considering they now play an 18 game schedule (thank you, Doug Gottlieb). Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. If WVU loses, and perhaps Syracuse, Villanova or a surprise team makes a Big East run, could WVU be entrenched in bubble fever come 6pm on Sunday night? My inside sources tell me yes (thank you, Peter Vecsey).

3) Pac-10 Tournament Opening Round: Arizona vs. Oregon State
-Typically, there wouldn’t be any consideration given to a team as terrible as the Beavers this season. However, with their loss to Oregon this past Saturday night, #2 SOS Wildcats (come on, that’s their motto these days), opened the door for potentially two Pac-10 teams with losing conference records getting in (it’s never happened to one Pac-10 team before). The one thing Arizona can do to help itself most is crush OSU and take out the “are-they-struggling” Cardinal. The worst: lose to Oregon State and any SOS may have to go straight out the window.

4) A-10 Tournament Opening Round: Charlotte vs. Rhode Island
-In A-10 play, Xavier is easily a sure-fire tournament team. However, the rest of the conference appears much murkier than it did only six weeks ago. In fact, this matchup of #6 Charlotte vs. #11 Rhode Island may lead to an interesting quarterfinal matchup against #3 UMass. The Minutemen appear the safest bet to acquire an at-large bid, for now. In truth, eyes will be focused intently on potential upsets that could prevent a tricky A-10 final four: Xavier/St. Joe’s & UMass/Temple could. A nightmarish scenario unfolds if Dayton upsets top-seed Xavier in the quarterfinals. Don’t even get me started on that…

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon)
6: Washington State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Marquette
7: Clemson, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, BYU, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL
9: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Davidson (Southern), Arkansas
10: Baylor, Arizona, UNLV (MWC), St. Mary’s
11: Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia, Illinois State
12: Ohio State, Temple, VCU, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), San Diego (WCC), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Illinois State, Ohio State, Temple, VCU
Last Four Out: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, UMass
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Ole Miss
On The Radar: Maryland, New Mexico, Florida

IN: Western Kentucky, San Diego, VCU
OUT: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 5/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Colonial: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.