How Will USC React to Postseason Ban?

I cannot believe I am saying this in January 2010, but the USC Trojans are a tournament-caliber team … in basketball. Just months after the program seemingly hit rock bottom and had a landmark home defeat to Loyola Marymount, who had won a whopping 3 games the previous season.

After starting 2-4 out of the gates, USC have won their last 8 games, which includes four over RPI Top 50 and six in the nation’s top third of teams. The difference is Mike Gerrity, the senior transfer who has buoyed the team to six straight wins.

Earlier this week, USC announced self-imposed sanctions for its basketball program because of NCAA rules violations related to OJ Mayo. (READ THIS FOR MORE DETAILS)

Honestly, I could care less what happens to USC. Their two major sports are in for a storm of epic proportions. I agree with the chorus of hatred coming from those who think the wrongdoers should suffer rather than the current crop of players.

At this point, I am more interested in how this team, picked to finish dead last in the Pac 10 by pretty much everyone, will play knowing that there will be no postseason.

Entering play on Wednesday, the Trojans only allow 80.7 points scored per 100 possessions (adjusted efficiency numbers – credit: kenpom.com). That is good enough for 1^st nationally. On offense, it’s another story. USC is in the bottom-third nationally, and has trouble with ball security and long-distance shooting (both in the 300s).

With the Pac 10 seemingly wide open, will Kevin O’Neill be effective towards galvanizing the troops and re-adjusting the team to a new goal – winning a regular season conference title? A lot remains to be determined, but whether the Trojans battle with the same tenacity and grit on defense and continue to play with more resolve on offense will decide the direction of the program moving forward.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

Four Games We Love

Four Games I Love - Clement Edition

Pay is going to take over the reigns with his own four matchups in an evening post.

Xavier is on tons of media "hot-lists" as a Final Four sleeper.
Question is: are the healthy enough???
Credit: MP3.com

Here we go…

East Region
#7. Butler vs. #10. South Alabama
-It’s only fair to let Pay have Mason vs. Notre Dame. Fortunately, I have tons of interest in this mid-major battle between the WCC’s Zags and the Sun Belt’s Jags. Both teams have strong depth, playmakers at multiple positions and a TON to prove. Even more interesting is that South Alabama wound up in a pod being played in Birmingham (yes, Alabama).

Midwest Region
#6. USC vs. #11. Kansas State
-Mayo v. Beasley. Need I say more? Honestly, I don’t.

South Region
#5. Michigan State vs. #12. Temple
-Nicknamed Team Schizophrenia by several media outlets, Michigan State may be the most difficult team to read in this entire bracket. In years past, they’ve proved doubters wrong, and rode momentum and great coaching to the Final Four (2005 rings a bell). Other years, they’ve folded out early to seemingly lesser competition (2006 rang a bell, at first). Enter the A-10 Tourney champs and this might be the 5/12 matchup that several people are eyeing intently.

West Region
#3. Xavier vs. #14. Georgia
-Everyone is jocking the Musketeers as their "sleeper" team. Yeah, as if a #3 seed is a real sleeper. Nevertheless, if Drew Lavender is healthy, I like Xavier to make a real run in this tournament. The problem is: he isn’t. Suddenly, you enter in that pod the remarkable SEC Tourney Champion Georgia Bulldogs (rest!), the last announced team (Baylor) and another schizophrenic Big Ten team (Purdue). Call me crazy, but Xavier is just as likely to make a legit Elite Eight run as they are to not survive the opening weekend.

Pay will check in shortly with his four...

Four Games I Love - Paymon Edition

East Region
#5 Notre Dame vs. #12 George Mason
- Thanks for letting me tackle the alma mater's battle versus "Da-da-da-da-da ol' Notre Dame". That was for Sum. Since Notre Dame has been consistent this season (great on offense, average on defense), this matchup will come down to how Mason plays defense. Why? That's because Mason will have to stick with what worked in Richmond, and cover the perimeter (ND averages 8.5 made threes per game and shoots 41% from behind the arc). These teams are very similar statistically despite the Irish holding a distinct height advantage, though the Irish are a better perimeter shooting squad. The battle between Will Thomas and Luke Harangody will be intriguing. All of this said, guard play wins this one.

Midwest Region
#8 UNLV vs. #9 Kent State
- The real media will provide you every detail possible on Gonzaga and Davidson (did you know the game was in Raleigh and that Gonzaga may be jet-lagged???). It's like that team has never traveled before. Moving onto this game, if UNLV wins, it will be because of ball security (+4.3 turnover margin and averaging only 10 TOs per contest). Keeping the ball won't be easy, as the Golden Flashes force in excess of 16 turnovers per game. On the opposite of the ball, Haminn Quaintance's long frame presents matchup problems and disrupt the free-flowing Runnin' Rebels. Once again, all eyes are on the guards -- more specifically, Wink Adams versus Al Fisher.

South Region
#6 Marquette vs. #11 Kentucky
- Without a doubt, this is my least favorite region. I hope Billy Gillispie and his assistants have surrounded Rupp Arena with the newspaper and web clippings clamoring over Kentucky's inclusion in the tournament field. For those just joining us, this tournament is about guard play and the last time I checked, Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford were awfully good seniors. Of course, they must be on their 'A' game if they want to progress past the backcourt trio of Jerel McNeal (73 steals), Dominic James (60 steals) and Wesley Matthews, all of whom average double figures in scoring.

West Region
#5 Drake vs. #12 Western Kentucky
- You gotta love it when the tournament selection committee pits one mid-major against another. I don't. According to some experts, Drake is considered the best shooting team in the field. Led by Missouri Valley Conference POY Adam Emmenecker, Drake has four double-digit average scorers (of which Emmenecker is not one) who made at least 40 three-pointers. The latent facts are that "The Drake" has underrated athleticism and has a penchant for playing stiff defense (opponents averaging less than 61 ppg). As for the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, Courtney Lee (20.4 ppg in 29.4 mpg!) is the man; however, WKU has ten players who average more than ten minutes of action per game. In its two losses to South Alabama, the Hilltoppers were held to 28.6 and 22.7 percent three-point shooting. Drake knows what it needs to accomplish.

Thursday FourCast: Bracket & Bubble Banter

by Chris Clement

Since I enjoyed adding “talking points” so much to Pay’s work last night, let’s do it again!

Here’s the Thursday edition. Oh yeah, here’s yesterday’s bracket projections.

1) A-10 Quarterfinals: Dayton/Xavier & Big East Quarterfinals: Villanova/Georgetown
-So maybe both don’t deserve to share the top spot; however, they both face tall mountains to climb against their conference’s regular season champions. While the Wildcats seem a much safer bubble-in squad (a 19-point brutalization over the ‘Cuse) than the Flyers, both might seal their ticket with wins early-Saturday afternoon. This could also mean relax, relief, or pure terror from the likes of Temple, UMass and St. Joe’s.

2) PAC-10 Quarterfinals: Arizona State vs. USC
-Though we have Arizona State in the field, they are not a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday. This is not an ideal that is shared by all bracketologists. In fact, as often one of the last four in/last four out wins games they are not expected to win, the room for error for the PAC-10's #5 seed may be thinning by the day. Enter O.J. Mayo and the streaking Trojans who have the juice to drive a buzzsaw through the PAC-10 Tournament. While a loss to the Trojans might not throw them on the wrong side of the bubble, might a terrible one combined with Arizona and Oregon booking trips to the semis?

3) PAC-10 Quarterfinals, Take 2: Oregon vs. Washington State
-Could the Ducks become the first PAC-10 squad with a losing record to enter March Madness? With a recent sweep of ASU/Arizona, the Quack Attack (admit it, you like it) might seem as close to a bubble-lock as possible with a win over the Cougars. Lose the game and suddenly bubble-bound Arizona surpasses you for good and potentially 60%, rather than 70%, of the conference is tourney-bound.

4) Bubbly Bubblitis: UNLV/TCU & Miami(FL)/NC State & Florida/Alabama & Georgia/Ole Miss
-Okay, I could go on for hours. Perhaps, I could talk about the entire A-10 tournament. Instead, I selected these four games to break down the situations (or plights) of four types of bubble squads.
UNLV: Take the lead from San Diego and defend home court all the way into March Madness. Without a conference tournament title, you and New Mexico may bump each other into the last four out column.
Miami (FL): You appear more than safe after finishing 5th in the ACC and owning a win over Duke: An embarrassing loss to last year’s ACC Tournament runner-up NC State.
Florida: You now know reaching the SEC Tournament Finals may be the worst you can do. With such a young squad, does Billy “the Kid” have any magic left for the two-time defending champions to cling to?
Ole Miss: You’ve been called out by Pay as a potential sleeper. Who is my team to watch come conference tournament time? Anybody say…Nebraska??? ME!

See you Friday morning…hopefully with a little clarity.

Top College Basketball Recruiting Classes for 2007

Tonight marks the culmination of events that began in mid-October when teams began practicing with one goal in mind: win the national championship. For Florida or Ohio State, it will become a reality. For everyone else, they can look forward to next year and the fruits of their seemingly ceaseless recruiting pitches.

Data from Rivals.com

1. Kansas St.
***** Michael Beasley, PF, 6-9 235 (1)
***** Bill Walker, SF, 6-6 220 (7)
*** Dominique Sutton, SF, 6-4 195 (97)
*** Fred Brown, SG, 6-3 185
*** Jacob Pullen, PG, 6-1 175

Next year, Kansas State will not be in the discussion as a bubble team, because they’ll have top recruit Michael Beasley playing the 4 for them. Bill Walker should be able to return from injury and the Wildcats should return most of its players. Not to mention, Bill Huggins will have another year to mold his players to his likening.

2. Syracuse Orange
***** Donte Green, SF, 6-9 217 (10)
***** Johnny Flynn, PG, 5-11 170 (22)
**** Antonio Jardine, SG, 6-1 180 (57)
**** Rick Jackson, PF, 6-8 235 (95)
*** Sean Williams, C, 6-11 220

The Orange reloads at every position, with Flynn and Green leading the recruiting class. Syracuse will need leadership at the guard and forward, as they lose crucial starters in both areas. The maturation process of Paul Harris may play a big role in determining how far these Orange may go next season.

3. USC Trojans
***** OJ Mayo, PG, 6-5 215 (6)
***** Davon Jefferson, SF, 6-7 190 (15 – class of 2006)
*** Leonard Washington, SF, 6-6 225 (108)
*** Venoy Overton, PG, 6-0 165
*** Marcus Simmons, SF, 6-4 175

USC was 10 minutes and a couple of fresh bodies away from upending #1 seed North Carolina in the East region. Next year, that excuse won’t apply, as the Trojans have reloaded with speed and skill. Note to Tim Floyd: Keep OJ Mayo on the court and out of trouble.

4. Arizona Wildcats
***** Jerryd Bayless, SG, 6-3 193 (9)
***** Jamelle Horne, SF, 6-7 205 (19)
*** Laval Lucas-Perry, PG, 6-1 191 (128)
*** Zane Johnson, SF, 6-6 200 (132)
*** Alex Jacobson, C, 7-1 223

Lute Olsen is just dying for leadership. He didn’t get it with Mustapha Shakur and he’s hoping that Bayless is more than a one-and-done player. Horne will immediately step into the Marcus Williams role, who’s more than likely NBA-bound. With that said, will Jacobson fill the shoes of Ivan Radenovic, who was by far, the most consistent player on last year’s underachieving roster.

5. Florida Gators
***** Nick Calathes, PG, 6-5 185 (13)
**** Chandler Parsons, SF, 6-8 190 (21)
**** Alex Tyus, PF, 6-8 210 (47)
**** Adam Allen, SF, 6-6 185 (68)

With this recruiting class, you can expect a mass exodus from the Florida player ranks. If Billy Donovan jettisons for Lexington, you can expect at least a couple of de-commits to occur. Meanwhile, the Gators are still chasing 5-star big man Patrick Patterson. Should the Gators land Patterson, they’ll have to be considered a top 3 recruiting class.

ON THE PERIPHERY

Ohio State: It should be no shock to anyone that Thad Matta can recruit. Knowing Greg Oden is very likely to ascend to the NBA ranks this summer, Matta signed Kosta Koufos, a 7-footer with skill who is a 5-star recruit. Matta signed four other young men, all of whom can fight for minutes upon arrival in Columbus.

Purdue: Knowing that his squad lacks size, Matt Painter signed four versatile 4-star recruits, three of which are 6’8” and taller.

Duke: Coach K must’ve known that his team would have scoring problems this season, because he’s snapped up Kyle Singler, who’s considered the most complete recruit entering college basketball next season. After a year’s hiatus, Duke gets a commit from the nation’s top white player. Taylor King can light it up from deep and Nolan Smith provides some badly-needed ball-handling skills.

Indiana: No matter how he got him (google "Gregg Doyel" + "Kelvin Sampson" + "Gordon" and you're golden), Kelvin Sampson landed Eric Gordon, the nation’s #2 recruit according to Rivals. Gordon should make sure that Indiana scores more than 13 points in a half versus UCLA. Sampson also signed imposing center Eli Holman, Jordan Crawford (PG), Jamarcus Ellis (JUCO-SG), and Brandon McGee. Can the talent get Sampson back into the Sweet 16 for the first time in what seems like forever?

Friday Night Tournament Previews

Last night, the chalk held and I remain disgusted by Tennessee's inability to put away Ohio State. Tonight, we might be in store for the same, which is good for college basketball's elite as well as the ratings for the Elite 8 games.

Clement and I are splitting up the regions. He's got Georgetown/Vanderbilt and Oregon/UNLV and I've got the two #1 seeds versus the upstart #5 seeds.

East Region Game #1
#2. Georgetown vs. #6. Vanderbilt
It's tough to pick directly against your Cinderella, but I expect the Hoyas to dictate every piece of this game on Friday. While Hibbert often seems entrenched in granite, he has looked smooth enough thus far, alongside Jeff Green (who always seems to play well when it matters most). The key may be role players like Sapp, Ewing Jr., and Summers if the Hoyas plan to take the wind out of the sails of the Commodores. Speaking of which, don't underestimate what it took to take down Washington State in double overtime. Often the hardest part of advancing deep into the tournament are those difficult early games. Derrick Byars is an insane talent who demands the ball when it matters (which coaches always love). While Vandy has a lot going against them, the SEC has upset the Big East before in similar surprising fashion (ala Alabama over the Orange in 2004).

Players to Watch: Patrick Ewing Jr. [Georgetown] & Shan Foster [Vanderbilt]
Moment of Truth: If Vandy falls down 6 or 8 within a few minutes, will they attempt to shoot the gym out with poorly-placed threes…or work the ball through the Georgetown defense and take smartly-placed threes? We shall see.

East Region Game #2
#1. North Carolina vs. #5. USC
When analyzing this game, one question immediately comes to mind. Okay, about three. Does USC have enough bodies to compete with North Carolina for the last 10 minutes of the game? Can USC get a repeat performance of Sunday from both Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett? Did Lodrick Stewart really have a root canal on Tuesday or are they just trying to soften up the Heels? One thing Tim Floyd can exploit is the relative weakness of Carolina's swingmen. Nick Young is a stud. Ellington is young and Reyshawn Terry is struggling with potential strep. Gabe Pruitt and Ty Lawson are expected to entertain.

Players to Watch: Daniel Hackett [USC] & Reyshawn Terry [North Carolina]
Moment of Truth: If Carolina is down late, who will be the player to step up alongside Tyler Hansbrough? How will Tim Floyd counteract the depth of Carolina, especially in the frontcourt?

Midwest Region Game #1
#1. Florida vs. #5. Butler
Another contrast in styles in store for this game, but not to the extent of Kansas and Southern Illinois last night. The Gators score 80 per game while the Bulldogs only give up 57, so expect Butler's ball-handlers to slow this game down. If Butler wins this game, it will be because of their ball security courtesy of Graves and Green, their ability to get to the free throw line, and of course, the trifecta. The annoyance factor must come into play as well for Butler. Florida has to be good for 30-35 minutes to be certain of victory and be resolute in their decision making. They must also take advantage of the hefty size disparity between the national champion and the mid-major. If Taurean Green can hold his own and find Humphrey, then Florida should be playing on Sunday against the Oregon/UNLV winner.

Players to Watch: Taurean Green [Florida] and Pete Campbell [Butler]
Moment of Truth: Butler's poise and ability to make open shots will determine whether this one will be decided in the final 5 minutes. If such is the case, chalk may finally not hold.

Midwest Region Game #2
#3. Oregon vs. #7. UNLV
An underrated game to say the least…in fact it's the one I'm dying to see. You might snicker, but the coaches are talented [Kent & Kruger] and the teams are filled with talented player who are fun to watch [i.e. Tajuan Porter & Kevin Kruger]. Both teams have been a little fortunate to face sub-par shooting [especially UNLV], yet both teams capitalize on opponent's mistakes and have performed well when their leads appear to be shrinking to nothing. In fact, it's this back-and-forth style which makes this game so intriguing. It could definitely be worth of an overtime session…or two.

Players to Watch: Wendell White [UNLV] & Bryce Taylor [Oregon]
Moment of Truth: UNLV has been a team of spurts, runs, and often droughts this season. Oregon could be the hottest team in the country right now. So in essence, UNLV needs to start well during the first 4-6 minutes. I'm not saying they need to be up 12, but they better not be down 12.