Peaking Ahead to Thursday's College Basketball Slate

Check out Pay's latest bracket projections.
Also check out the schedule for conference tournaments.
Last night's reactions are up too.

Tomorrow has quite a lineup. Here are some things to take note of (thanks Pay for the help):

Tubby Smith and Minnesota, Pay's third to last team in, are in action tomorrow against Northwestern, a team a little further down the bubble chart.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Games in RED have major bubble implications.

ACC First Round
Game 1: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Miami, noon
Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, ESPN2, 7 p.m.

Big East Quarterfinals
Game 1: No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 8 Providence, ESPN, noon
Game 2: No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 5 Marquette, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Pittsburgh vs. No. 7 West Virginia, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Connecticut vs. No. 6 Syracuse, ESPN, 9 p.m.

Big Ten First Round
Game 1: No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, noon
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, ESPN2, 5 p.m.

Big XII Quarterfinals
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Texas, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, 7 p.m.

PAC-10 Quarterfinals
Game 3: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 3 p.m.
Game 5: No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 9 p.m.

SEC Opening Round
Game 1: E4 Kentucky vs. W5 Ole Miss, 1 p.m.
Game 4: E3 Florida vs. W6 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.

Mid-major alert! Big West, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Southland, SWAC, and WAC (is that mid-major really?) games tomorrow as well. Enjoy!!!

Tournament Schedules for the Power Conferences

With the tournament matchups set for all of the power conferences, I have included the matchups and schedules below. Those games with clear bubble implications are in red font.

ACC (Georgia Dome -- Atlanta)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Miami, noon
Game 2: No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Boston College vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 5: No. 1 North Carolina vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, noon
Game 6: No. 4 Florida State vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Wake Forest vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Duke vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 1:30 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 4 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 1 p.m.

BIG EAST (MSG - New York City)

FIRST ROUND
Tuesday, March 10
Game 1: No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No. 16 DePaul, noon
Game 2: No. 12 Georgetown vs. No. 13 St. John's, 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 15 Rutgers, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 11 Seton Hall vs. No. 14 South Florida, 9 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 5: No. 8 Providence vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 6: No. 5 Marquette vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 7: No. 7 West Virginia vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 6 Syracuse vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 9: No. 1 Louisville vs. Game 5 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 10: No. 4 Villanova vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 11: No. 2 Pittsburgh vs. Game 7 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 12: No. 3 Connecticut vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 15: Game 13 winner vs. Game 14 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.

BIG TEN (Conseco Fieldhouse -- Indianapolis)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, noon
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, ESPN2, 5 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 4: No. 1 Michigan State vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 5: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Ohio State, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 Illinois vs. Game 2 winner, 6:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Purdue vs. Game 3 winner, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 1:40 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 4:05 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 10: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 3:30 p.m.

BIG 12 (Ford Center -- Oklahoma City)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Baylor, 12:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Colorado, 3 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Iowa State, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 5: No. 1 Kansas vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, 12:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Game 2 winner, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Missouri vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 9:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 6 p.m.

PAC-10 (Staples Center -- Los Angeles)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Oregon State vs. No. 9 Stanford, 9 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Oregon, 11:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 3: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 3 p.m.
Game 4: No. 1 Washington vs. Game 1 winner, 5:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 9 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 UCLA vs. Game 2 winner, 11:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 11:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 6 p.m.

SEC (St. Pete Times Forum -- Tampa)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: E4 Kentucky vs. W5 Ole Miss, 1 p.m.
Game 2: W3 Mississippi State vs. E6 Georgia, 3:15 p.m.
Game 3: W4 Alabama vs. E5 Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: E3 Florida vs. W6 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Friday, March 13
Game 5: W1 LSU vs. Game 1 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 6: E2 South Carolina vs. Game 2 winner, 3:15 p.m.
Game 7: E1 Tennessee vs. Game 3 winner, 7:30 p.m.
Game 8: W2 Auburn vs. Game 4 winner, 9:45 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN2, 1 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN2, 3:15 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 1 p.m.

10 Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style

Yesterday, Clement had a chance to collect questions relevant to the NCAA Tournament from numerous PHSports stakeholders. Today, I answer those questions. Simple enough.

ACC Country
Q: With FSU enjoying plenty of recent success, who has a tougher road to an at-large berth in the crowded ACC: Virginia Tech or Boston College?
A: In short, Virginia Tech has the tougher road to an at-large berth because BC's signature win (@ UNC) grows stronger by the day. The Hokies also have a tougher schedule with 5 of their last 6 against teams with a .600 winning percentage in % or better. That said, there is never a day off in the ACC and both teams are capable of defeating top teams or playing to the level of lesser competition.

UPDATE: This question was answered for us.

Q: Is Maryland only a miracle run in the ACC Tourney away from returning to the Big Dance?
A: Since a home loss against BC, Maryland has been playing its best string of games this year. To garner consideration, they need to win a game or two that they are not expected to (@ Clemson, v. Duke, v. UNC, v. Wake) and take care of weaker teams away from the Comcast Center. Mind you, this is the same team that trounced Michigan State early in the season. If the Selection Committee sees anything like that result, then watch out. To answer your question, it depends on seeding. Likely, Maryland will need two wins in the ACC Tournament and a collapse by one of the teams ahead of them.

Big East Talk
Q: Cincinnati appears to be on the upswing while Georgetown remains stuck in the abyss after a tough loss at the Carrier Dome. Meanwhile, Notre Dame shakes off 7-straight losses - many of them ugly ones - to destroy Louisville. Last night, West Virginia pounds Villanova and reminds us about their dangerous talent. Assuming UCONN, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville, Villanova, and (maybe) even the Cuse are locks for March Madness...what happens to the "rest of the field", including the aformentioneds (Georgetown, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, West Virginia) as well as Providence.
A: First, let's take WVU out of this discussion. They have a stronger resume, have a real chance at 10 wins in conference and have Pitt and Louisville scheduled twice each. After them, I'd put the Bearcats into the field of 65, who are not the prettiest team to watch, but grind it out for 40 minutes. They also have two extremely winnable games in addition to three chances to pad the resume against Louisville, WVU and the Cuse. On the outside looking in, I'd put Notre Dame and Georgetown. The Irish earned their first signature win of the year, but can they keep it going? Realistically speaking, can they play strong defense again? As for the Hoyas, they have the best wins among this group and can return to the fold with a 8-10 conference record plus two wins in the Big East Tournament, including 1-2 games against teams that they are not expected to beat given their current form.

CAA Speak
Q: Do you think a darkhorse can emerge come CAA Tournament time, or do you believe VCU/Mason are the odds on favorites - even with a talented Northeastern team tied atop the standings - to cut down the nets in Richmond?
A: Absolutely. Any of the top seven teams (VCU, Mason, Nor'Easter, Drexel, Hofstra, Old Dominion, James Madison) in this conference have a 'good' chance to make the finals. I still think VCU is the favorite because all they need is Maynor plus two for three games. Rams fans know that's easier said than done this season, but that's asking less than what other teams demand.

Big Ten Bias
Q: Will Penn State right the ship, or are they looking more and more like an early bloomer who will fade well before Selection Sunday?
A: The Nittany Lions stole a must-win game from Minnesota with dominating play in the final four minutes (thanks to a guy named Battle), which killed the assertion that they fade in the face of urgency. Unless they win 10 games in conference, they will need to advance to the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament.

Missouri Valley Time
Q: With an impressive showing Bracketbuster weekend (more below), can Northern Iowa and Creighton secure bids, assuming one of them wins the conference championship over the other?
A: No. Creighton had plenty of missed opportunities in non-conference play. Northern Iowa has no chance to secure a berth other than winning the automatic bid.

Pac-10 Pontification
Q: I can't figure out this conference one bit. Can we get a sentence or two on the postseason "likelihoods" for Arizona, USC, and Cal?
A: USC has the weakest resume of the three but has the best adjusted defensive efficiency, which is conducive to winning. Arizona has the strongest win and the hottest, but Cal has the strongest non-conference resume. It's a web confusion and trend data is useless in the PAC 10.

WCC
Q: What's the best case (realistic) scenario for St. Mary's - sans Patty Mills - right now? If he can return before tournament time, how much can the Selection Committee take into account his injury and their play before it? Is that fair to do so?
A: There is more conditional speak here than in a legal document. Mills is scheduled to return right before the WCC Tournament; therefore, the Selection Committee will pay special attention to the Gaels form and Mills's effectiveness. Nothing short of a trip to the finals (and losing to Gonzaga) will garner consideration for an at-large bid. Also the Gaels would need plenty of help from bubble teams who would play the role of choke artist.

Prognosis: Negative

Free-for-All
Q: Who is this year's San Diego (winning their conference tournament unexpectedly and then making noise opening weekend of the tournament)? Maybe Portland/Nevada/Niagara/Belmont? Okay, probably not Belmont.
A: If Butler does not win the Horizon League Tournament, then Wisconsin-Green Bay and Cleveland State have a real chance to advance to the second round of the NCAA Tournament should they face a low-grade protected seed (#11-16 overall).

Bracketbusting
Q: What are your favorite Bracketbuster matchups? Who has the most to gain from the weekend's matchups? Who has the most to lose? Individual team or conferences may apply.
A: Butler/Davidson and Utah State/St. Mary's are diluted by injuries to Stephen Curry and Patty Mills. Davidson and Utah State have the most to gain if their star players do not play and they either impress or win. Consequently, Butler and Utah State have the most to lose if they do not take care of business. By process of elimination and admitting my CAA/George Mason bias, I have three matchups.

VCU @ Nevada -- Can the Nevada guards rattle Eric Maynor? Who will cover Luke Babbitt? Will Larry Sanders be good to go?

George Mason @ Creighton -- Bias aside, this is going to be a beautiful battle of quality guards.

Buffalo @ Vermont -- Oh, those pesky Catamounts! I really want to see how good Buffalo is. Is Turner Gill also coaching the basketball team?

All of this said, none of the mid-majors involved in the BracketBusters are bona fide two-bid conferences (assuming the top teams from these one-bids win their conference tournaments). A TV sweep for the Horizon and MVC *may* garner consideration for a second bid, but I would not bet the bank account.

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Thursday FourCast: Bracket & Bubble Banter

by Chris Clement

Since I enjoyed adding “talking points” so much to Pay’s work last night, let’s do it again!

Here’s the Thursday edition. Oh yeah, here’s yesterday’s bracket projections.

1) A-10 Quarterfinals: Dayton/Xavier & Big East Quarterfinals: Villanova/Georgetown
-So maybe both don’t deserve to share the top spot; however, they both face tall mountains to climb against their conference’s regular season champions. While the Wildcats seem a much safer bubble-in squad (a 19-point brutalization over the ‘Cuse) than the Flyers, both might seal their ticket with wins early-Saturday afternoon. This could also mean relax, relief, or pure terror from the likes of Temple, UMass and St. Joe’s.

2) PAC-10 Quarterfinals: Arizona State vs. USC
-Though we have Arizona State in the field, they are not a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday. This is not an ideal that is shared by all bracketologists. In fact, as often one of the last four in/last four out wins games they are not expected to win, the room for error for the PAC-10's #5 seed may be thinning by the day. Enter O.J. Mayo and the streaking Trojans who have the juice to drive a buzzsaw through the PAC-10 Tournament. While a loss to the Trojans might not throw them on the wrong side of the bubble, might a terrible one combined with Arizona and Oregon booking trips to the semis?

3) PAC-10 Quarterfinals, Take 2: Oregon vs. Washington State
-Could the Ducks become the first PAC-10 squad with a losing record to enter March Madness? With a recent sweep of ASU/Arizona, the Quack Attack (admit it, you like it) might seem as close to a bubble-lock as possible with a win over the Cougars. Lose the game and suddenly bubble-bound Arizona surpasses you for good and potentially 60%, rather than 70%, of the conference is tourney-bound.

4) Bubbly Bubblitis: UNLV/TCU & Miami(FL)/NC State & Florida/Alabama & Georgia/Ole Miss
-Okay, I could go on for hours. Perhaps, I could talk about the entire A-10 tournament. Instead, I selected these four games to break down the situations (or plights) of four types of bubble squads.
UNLV: Take the lead from San Diego and defend home court all the way into March Madness. Without a conference tournament title, you and New Mexico may bump each other into the last four out column.
Miami (FL): You appear more than safe after finishing 5th in the ACC and owning a win over Duke: An embarrassing loss to last year’s ACC Tournament runner-up NC State.
Florida: You now know reaching the SEC Tournament Finals may be the worst you can do. With such a young squad, does Billy “the Kid” have any magic left for the two-time defending champions to cling to?
Ole Miss: You’ve been called out by Pay as a potential sleeper. Who is my team to watch come conference tournament time? Anybody say…Nebraska??? ME!

See you Friday morning…hopefully with a little clarity.

Thursday Night Streaming Updates...

We don't have many of these regular season Thursday left (to be honest, it's our last) and there are plenty o' matchups we have our eyes on.

Shocker, it's not all about the college basketball bubble...yet.

So who do you have tonight on the "bubble" for the Oceanic 6 on Lost?
Credit: Newsday.com

Checking in right before 9:00pm.

• #13 UCONN trails at Providence 64-59. Providence is savoring this matchup and the potential to play spoiler to white-hot UCONN. Jerome Dyson just scored his first basket. I suddenly have memories of his 10-point run during their double-digit comeback against Cincinnati. Thabeet re-enters with 4 fouls...interesting to see how he handles this in the paint.
  
• UCLA v. Stanford still tips off at 11pm eastern time. I understand my obvious East Coast-bias; however, there is no reason a game this rock solid (talkin' #3 vs. #7 and potential Pac-10 regular season supremacy) should be on so late for such a large portion fo the country.
• Georgia Tech leads Clemson by 2 with a little over six minutes left to play. Will any conference be as up and down as the ACC should be the next couple days? Something tells me free throws and deep-threes will decide the victor of this late-season ACC matcup.
  
• Northeastern Conference (Robert Morris, Sacred Heart, Wagner, etc.) has started up tonight, no real upsets of note yet.
• Keep an eye on Xavier vs. St. Joe's at 9pm tonight. The Hawks are playing for their lives on the bubble, while the Musketeers have recently been called out on several blogs (including this one) for being rated a little too highly.

My girlfriend has taken over HD to watch the Project Runway finale. Sad times around 9:30pm.

• Of course, Clemson loses to (5-9 in conference) Georgia Tech 80-75. It's shocking to say, but Virginia Tech could play their way into the 3-seed in the ACC Tournament and still be on the outside of the "bubble" looking in. Clemson, Miami, and Virginia Tech may enter March Madness - wherever they are seeded - as some of the worst teams to be their respectively. Yeah, I said it.
• Providence hangs on late and impressively knocks off UCONN. Does this derail Husky momentum or are they saving it for MSG? The Friars may have locked up the 12-seed in the Big East tournament (only next year can all 16 years go to MSG).
• St. Joe's up early 20-17 on Xavier. This could be interesting to follow...
• Illinois also up on Michigan State 25-17 mid-way through the 1st-half. The Spartans may be the most frustrating team in the country - outside of College Park - this entire season. They are gonna be brutal to judge once brackets are released.
• No real eye-openers on the mid-major schedule right now. Maybe I need to look harder.
• UCLA v. Stanford is still at 11. I'm protesting by going to bed before then.
  
• Here are two fuzzy, yet hilarious random YouTube clips: Family Guy & Holiday Hawk. Enjoy!
  

Pay checking in at 9:50

• I have my eye on Oregon (7-9) versus Arizona State (8-8). Oregon is up 7 with 12 and change in regulation. If they hold on, their game against Arizona (who's handling winless Oregon State) may very well be an NCAA elimination game if both teams lose in the quarters of the PAC-10 tournament. On a side note, does anyone else think that Dick Enberg should write an essay for every tournament game that he covers and not just the finale?
• St. Joe's is up 7 at halftime against A-14 behemoth Xavier. I'll be shocked if they win and are not included in Joe Lunardi's next edition of ESPN Cracketology.
• Clement and I just spoke not too long ago and we're both missing out on the Stanford/UCLA. I'm really interested in seeing how the Cardinal guards will handle Collison and Westbrook. Though they are not the team that lost to Louisville by the first media timeout in the NCAA Tournament last season, I cannot say that I am sold on Stanford's ability to break guard pressure. While the Bruins won't press like a Louisville or a UAB of yesteryear under the tutelage of Mike Anderson, I envision them creating situations whereby the Cardinal will have to work to get the ball past the timeline.

Nearing 11pm

• Oregon (8-9) defeats Arizona State (8-9) setting up a clash between Arizona (8-9) and Oregon. If Oregon and Oregon State (who plays Arizona State) and you can only pick six PAC 10-teams, then who gets the boot [assuming all three lose in the Pac-10 quarters]?
• Xavier down 9 late. Make that 7 with 1:40 to go. I really hate the Hawk.
• Looking forward to the craziness of Arch Madness tomorrow with SIU and Illinois State in must-win situations.
• If Utah State hangs on at Boise State, the Aggies will be 11-4 and the Broncos will be 12-4. New Mexico State is up to 11-4. If Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico State will, then there will be an irrelevant four-way tie because New Mexico State has homecourt advantage regardless of their seed.
• Just to follow up, it's looking like St. Joe's is winning this one, setting up a huge showdown on Saturday at Dayton.
  

Until next update...

Clement’s Weekly Picks and Prognostications…Week 8

At this point last year, I was staring up from the basement in terms of predictions and fantasy. I surged late in fantasy football, but my predictions only got worse by the week.

Ironically, I own a more than solid fantasy squad and my predictions, for at least seven weeks, couldn’t be much better. Is there anywhere to go but down? Tell that to the Patriots. Please. As for the people crying for respect for the Colts, shut it. They finally got their rings and no longer need to play the “we don’t get respect” card. Do you seriously think Bob Sanders cares where the Colts situate in a .com Power Rankings poll? I highly doubt it. Then again, do you see the Colts marching into Foxboro in late January and stealing a victory?

Me neither.

As for the picks and the prognostication…

NFL Picks: [12-7-1]
Washington @ New England [-16.5]









Credit: Yahoo! Sports


There isn’t a double digit spread the Patriots can’t cover. Despite gaping holes on the offensive line, Washington boasts one of the league’s better defenses midway through the season. As long as Sean Taylor stays at home and the offense can avoid the pick-six, the Skins will lose yet cover this gigantic number.

Green Bay @ Denver [-3]











Credit: Yahoo! Sports


With the -3, you have to scream PUSH as Elam has connected on three late field goals to give Denver their only wins this season. Green Bay was off last week, yet Denver gets to host its second-straight primetime game. Fortunately, the Madden Cruiser doesn’t dock for this one. Fortunately for Rockies fans (Boston in 5 in the Series), Denver is back on track and should make enough plays to at least push this number with a cover.

Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay [-4]

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

It’s not often that David Garrard’s health impacts a spread, but this would be your case. The real keys will be Bucs running back Earnest Graham and Jags DE Paul Spicer. Both have been fantastic lately. Gray is the starter, so take the Bucs with the points.

NCAA Picks: [7-3]
Note: The only way to parlay picks is to take Pac-10 ridiculous-sized spreads. No other conference favors home favorites more. How else could Stanford be a legit 40-point dog to USC?

#9. USC vs. #5. Oregon [-2.5]

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

When was the last time USC was a dog, road or home? You might have to go back five or six years to find that out. While Oregon has one rock solid, dynamic QB in Dennis Dixon, USC is far from separated from the BCS Title Game picture. Oregon dropped a close one to Cal at home early in the season. They’ll drop this mid-season showdown in Eugene as well.

#18. California vs. #7. Arizona State [-3]











Credit: Yahoo! Sports


Arizona State finally got bit by the injury bug. Fortunately though, it wasn’t QB Rudy Carpenter. Completely forgetting his 2006 campaign, Carpenter has the Sun Devils as high as #4 in the latest BCS rankings. That’s as high as he gets. Nate Longshore and the Golden Bears will get just enough for their defense to pull of the weekend’s second road upset.

3 Must Starts and Must Sits
START
…Last Week…
Cedric Benson: Nothing spectacular. Nothing new for Cedric.
Tennessee Defense: Only a TD away from a spectacular effort, fantasy-wise. That 4^th quarter killed their total points though.
Marc Bulger: I seem to have one idiotic pick every week. Geez.

…This Week…
Lee Evans: He’s starting to rev it back up. Next up: Jets D. Or should I say, “D”.
Amani Toomer: The Fins “secondary” is going to be shredded more and more each week.
Reggie Brown: I just have a feeling this week. Not sure why, but I do.

SIT
…Last Week…
Lee Evans: Yep, he’s creeping back. But it wasn’t anything you’d cry over missing.
Fred Taylor: Nothing spectacular at all. Jones-Drew stole the cheap TD.
Brandon Jacobs: The injury didn’t affect this weekend’s impressive performance. As for next week…

…This Week…
Chris Chambers: I don’t expect a spectacular debut. Try and rely on a more solid #2 or #3 option, even with the byes.
Benjamin Watson: Something tells me Brady could steal 5 or 6 TDs at tight end this season.
Devin Hester: Don’t start him, even with his TD prowess. It’s too much of a shot in the dark.

Until next time…

The Misses

Usually, the shtick for established columnists and up-and-coming bloggers in the sports realm is to highlight their good predictions and ignore the bad misses. Today, I'm going to focus on the misses this season. Let's focus on three misses.

The most obvious miss was Texas A&M. Don't get me wrong, I expected them to make the tournament with a relatively weaker Big XII compared to previous years and a multitude of returning players. I even thought that they had a chance at a 'protected seed' (4 or better). I just wasn't convinced on December 10 when I criticized the embellishing of A&M by one Gary Parrish of CBS Sportsline lore. At the time, I didn't expect Acie Law IV to have 25 great games in a 30+ game season.

Another miss was the Pac-10 conference. At season's start, I viewed it as a 3-4 bid conference with UCLA, Arizona, and Washington being the locks. USC was my 4th team. No Oregon. No Washington State. I knew of Aaron Brooks, but what about Tajuan Porter and Maarty Leunen? Not so much. As for Wazzou, I had no clue. (Yes, I rhymed).

Another Texas A&M-associated miss was the non-inclusion of Acie Law IV in my top three preseason All-America teams. Instead, I included the likes of Ronald Steele, Dominic James, Richard Roby (who?), Sean Singletary, and Brandon Heath at the guard positions ahead of Law. What on earth was I thinking?

While there are other misses that can be harped on (namely, Butler during the NCAA Tournament), those are the ones of the highest magnitude. With that said, some of these misses pale in comparison to those of the real media and higher-profile bloggers.

Tomorrow, we'll have our predictions for the Sweet 16 games as well as other observations pertinent to the NCAA tournament and beyond.