Wednesday, March 11, 2009

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 11, 2009

After the thumping heard ‘round the world, the scuttlebutt across the net has been where the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee might place St. Mary’s. Right now, they are in our LAST 2 IN. This puts St. Mary’s in a tenuous position leading up to their home game against Eastern Washington on Friday night. Patrick Mills will need to perform, as the Committee will be following that game with a keen eye. Or so, we hope.

Sticking with the mid-majors, Butler fell a seed line after losing a tight home decision to Cleveland State, who effectively stole a bid. Under the current scenario, Auburn is on the outside looking in as a result of the thievery. If Florida defeats Arkansas and Auburn defeats Florida, then Auburn has an even stronger argument as to why they should be included.

As you will notice, there was a difference in the placement of Big Ten bubble teams since the last bracket. To better understand the problem, I determined the records of the Big Ten teams under heavy consideration (sorry, Northwestern, you’re not there yet) against the top 9 teams in the conference. I used the records and key wins to differentiate the teams and determine seeding. As a result, Ohio State seems to be on shaky ground, as their wins continue to lose value.

Penn State: 7-7 (@ Michigan State; Illinois (2); v. Purdue)
Michigan:7-8 (v. Duke; UCLA –N; v. Purdue)
Wisconsin: 7-7 (v. Illinois)
Minnesota: 6-9 (Louisville – N; v. Illinois)
Ohio State: 6-8 (v. Butler; win v. Purdue w/o Hummel)

Here are some impact games taking place tomorrow:
DePaul v. Providence: If Providence loses, they are eliminated from consideration. A win by the Friars has the nutritional equivalent of lettuce.

Iowa State v. Oklahoma State: If Oklahoma State loses, it opens the door for a number of teams to sneak in. The Cowboys lack quality wins away from Stillwater and a good showing is key to an at-large bid.

Notre Dame v. West Virginia: By my count, West Virginia is in, but a loss here could damage their seeding. Notre Dame needs to win this if they have any hope of making the tournament. If they can demonstrate that Harangody is not the entire team against a legitimate opponent, then that helps their cause that much more.

Texas Tech v. Texas A&M: Tech played A&M to two single-digit contests in the regular season and they proved against Kansas that they could catch fire. After their win against Missouri, A&M will be in if they avoid defeat here.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Minnesota

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Western Kentucky

If you have questions, comments, uninhibited hatred, or think I really need some sleep, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, GONZAGA (WCC)
6: Marquette, California, Texas, Arizona State
7: Butler, Tennessee (SEC), Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Penn State, Michigan
10: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), Oklahoma State, UNLV (MWC), Wisconsin
11: Creighton, Arizona, St. Mary’s, WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt)
12: Minnesota, Ohio State, Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA)
13: CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON), NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), Portland State (Big Sky)
15: Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Cleveland State, Portland State, Chattanooga
OUT: Auburn, Weber State, Charleston

Last Four In: Creighton, Minnesota, St. Mary’s, Ohio State
Last Four Out: Auburn, Kansas State, New Mexico, Providence
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
Horizon: 2/10
MVC: 2/10
SEC: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

2 comments:

jeff r said...

Aggies fan through and through ...

Be honest. How bad was tonight's loss?

Paymon said...

It was really bad. To lose a 21-point lead against a bad team is worse.

In my immediate analysis, I see them as my 5th to last team in, but I will not fully assess full resumes until later tonight.