Wednesday Night Dribbles

A few quick hitters to sum up the night in college basketball:

• Temple and BYU both lost opportunities to strengthen their cases for a protected seed. Kudos to Chris / Craig on calling the Charlotte upset. Though, I still don't think they are or will be a tournament team.

• Anyone who had William & Mary as an at-large team can gently take them out of the discussion. Tonight, they lost to CAA strugglers James Madison. David Schneider has shot 11-for-45 in their last three games - all losses. Ultimately, their demise comes down to their defense (246th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency). Meanwhile, my preseason pick, George Mason, is 9-1 in conference play.

• If no one in the SEC West separates themselves from the pack, Vanderbilt may turn out to be the SEC's 2nd-best team despite a shaky start to the season. They now have wins over Missouri, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Middle Tennessee St., St. Mary's, and Arizona. Not bad for the end of January. After their Rocky Top high, Tennessee is looking like a team without the services of its best player.

• Oklahoma State is starting to normalize with another win at Texas A&M. The margin for error remains small for Travis Ford. Their next four are @ Missouri, v. Texas, @ Texas Tech, v. Oklahoma. So, that's 2 road games, 1 against a top 5 opponent, and another against your in-state rival who hates your guts and has a mental edge from a prior win. We'll know a lot more about this team's heart (Eaton and Harris were huge losses) very soon.

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - March 15, 2008

With one more night of basketball, it’s business as usual for the elite teams. Excluding Tennessee, all of the top teams played well en route to victories. In the Big XII, we have projected Kansas to gain retribution for a regular season loss in Austin versus Texas. If Texas sweeps Kansas, then the Longhorns immediately become a #1 seed due to what would be four wins against our current top five teams. Meanwhile, Georgetown is playing its best basketball of the season, especially on the offensive side (they are already #1 in defensive FG%), and that makes them more dangerous than originally perceived. Here are some non-bubble talking points …

• Clement and I had a heated discussion on who should be the #12 overall team. We really want Pittsburgh to show us a little more tomorrow night before we put them there. Mind you, this is the same team that had lost 4 of 7 following the return of Levance Fields prior to the Big East Tournament at Pitt’s home away from home (MSG). We also have not forgotten about Pitt’s home loss to Rutgers.
• In the words of Clement, “We are pulling a ‘Jay Mariotti’” and switching our Mountain West allegiance to BYU (prior to the UNLV/Utah game). UNLV’s utter lack of perimeter defense scares us.

The other theme involved potential bid stealers trying to make their mark. However, they largely fell short. Here are some quick bubble talking points …

• In our humble opinion, the field should just end after the loser of the A-14 championship game.
• Among the successful, St. Joe’s handled Xavier for the second time in two weeks. With that victory, the Red Hawks and their annoying mascot punched their ticket. Meanwhile, they will play Temple, who we project to win the A-14 tournament since Xavier is out. If St. Joe’s takes the automatic bid, we still like Temple (Paymon more than Clement) to make the field.
• How could Arizona State (RPI: 81) and Arizona (19-14, 9-11) be in and Oregon (RPI: 56; 18-13, 9-10) be out of the mix? In evaluating these teams, Arizona State has the best set of wins (versus Stanford, USC, Xavier); Arizona is 3-5 against the top four teams in the conference (won twice versus Washington State and had an away split with USC) and has their standard outstanding non-conference schedule; Oregon is 1-7 against the top four teams with its best wins being versus Stanford and at Kansas State. All things considered, the Arizona schools won more games that mattered.
• Virginia Tech earned its first victory over a RPI Top 50 team on Friday (Miami-FL). Though some are ready to crown them due to the ineptitude of fellow bubble teams, we are not. Keep a close eye on their game with UNC. If they keep it close, they will gain credibility if nothing else, and frankly, that may be enough.
• In C-USA Final tomorrow morning, Tulsa will need a Herculean effort to overcome Memphis, who themselves are clinging onto a #1 seed.
• The MAC Final will be a rematch of last week’s showdown between Kent State and Akron. With Al Fisher’s game-winning shot on the mind, Akron may steal a bid, as Kent State possesses the makings of an at-large bid resume.
• Either Minnesota or Illinois will be in the Big Ten Final. If you’re a shrink, you have a market among our Last Four In and Last Out.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), UCLA (PAC-10), Memphis (C-USA)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Georgetown (Big East), Duke
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Stanford, Louisville, Drake (MVC)
4: Pittsburgh, Michigan State, USC, Marquette
5: Xavier, UConn, Vanderbilt, Washington State
6: Butler (Horizon), Purdue, Notre Dame, Indiana
7: Gonzaga, Clemson, BYU (MWC), Arkansas
8: Kansas State, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Oklahoma
9: West Virginia, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL, Davidson (Southern)
10: Texas A&M, Arizona State, St. Mary’s, St. Joseph’s
11: Arizona, Temple (A-10), Baylor, UNLV
12: Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic), San Diego (WCC)

14: Cornell (Ivy), American (Patriot), Cal State Fullerton (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: Belmont (Atlantic Sun), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Winthrop (Big South), Portland State (Big Sky)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), UT-Arlington (Southland), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)

Last Four In: UNLV, Villanova, South Alabama, Illinois State
Last Four Out: Oregon, VCU, Ohio State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Ole Miss, Syracuse, Stephen F. Austin, UMass

IN: St. Joseph’s, South Alabama, UT-Arlington, Cal State Fullerton, Mount St. Mary’s, Mississippi Valley State
OUT: Ohio State, VCU, Stephen F. Austin, UC-Santa Barbara, Sacred Heart, Alabama State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 4/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Sun Belt: 2/12

Thursday Game Previews

We are just an hour and a half from the start of the first games of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Today, we look at five games on our radar that should be on yours as well.

At day's end, the tournament field will have shrunk from 64 to 48 and sixteen dreams will have ended with others looking forward to fulfillment on Saturday. Without further ado, here are today's previews.

#5. Butler vs. #12. Old Dominion [2:40 pm] Midwest Region
- The question for me is, “Which ODU team will come out?” If it’s the team that won 12 in a row leading up to the CAA Tournament, Vasylius, Williamson, and the boys will be too much to handle for Miss November. Butler absolutely needs AJ Graves to get out of the funk he left on Wright State’s home court. The guard matchups up will be key as well as Vasylius’ ability to assert himself on the offensive end.
Deciding Factor: ODU’s ability to cause turnovers and get Dahi back on track.

#6. Duke vs. #11. VCU [7:10 pm] West Region
- Likely to get a ton of deserving national attention, VCU has a golden opportunity to try and really test this underachieve Duke squad. Yet, don’t let the Blue Devils fool you…they’re still loaded with talent. VCU will have to shoot 40% or better from the three-point line and their three bigs (Anderson, Fameni, and Roland) must stay out of serious foul trouble.
Deciding Factor: Duke’s ability, or inability, to handle the VCU press.

#8. Marquette vs. #9. Michigan State [7:20 pm] East Region
- The game to get UNC. Never underestimate Tom Izzo (23-8 record in the NCAA Tournament), despite how youthful this team is this season. Dominic James and Drew Neitzel are a pair of dynamic backcourt players who should be seen by anyone with a television set. Important to note, Michigan State is fourth in the nation in scoring defense and should be able to out rebound the Golden Eagles due in large part to this.
Deciding Factor: The sprained thumb of Marquette guard Jerel McNeal, clearly the team’s top defender, may strip Marquette of too prized of a possession against the pesky Spartans.

#8. BYU vs. #9. Xavier [9:30 pm] South Region
- I have to admit, I’ve seen these teams play a combined four times this season. In that short time, I realize that the 3-ball will be hoisted early and often. Both teams shoot above 37% as a team from behind the arc and run very fluid offenses. The teams are absolutely even when it comes down to the major categories. It will be a battle of wills between Keena Young and Stanley Burrell.
Deciding Factor: Lavender’s ability to exploit the BYU guards on both sides of the ball and bench play.

#7. Indiana vs. #10. Gonzaga [9:40 pm] West Region
- Two things jump out to me. Indiana’s abysmal road/neutral court record (5-10) and their record since the Wisconsin victory against non-bottom three teams in the Big Ten (1-5). I’m not that keen on Gonzaga either. While they’ve regrouped as a team since the suspension of Josh Heytvelt, Kuso has little chance of stopping DJ White. In the end, if Gonzaga has a lead late, the free throw shooting of Derek Raivio and leadership of Jeremy Pargo will be too much for the struggling Hoosiers.
Deciding Factor: Pargo vs. Wilmont.