Wednesday Night Dribbles

A few quick hitters to sum up the night in college basketball:

• Temple and BYU both lost opportunities to strengthen their cases for a protected seed. Kudos to Chris / Craig on calling the Charlotte upset. Though, I still don't think they are or will be a tournament team.

• Anyone who had William & Mary as an at-large team can gently take them out of the discussion. Tonight, they lost to CAA strugglers James Madison. David Schneider has shot 11-for-45 in their last three games - all losses. Ultimately, their demise comes down to their defense (246th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency). Meanwhile, my preseason pick, George Mason, is 9-1 in conference play.

• If no one in the SEC West separates themselves from the pack, Vanderbilt may turn out to be the SEC's 2nd-best team despite a shaky start to the season. They now have wins over Missouri, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Middle Tennessee St., St. Mary's, and Arizona. Not bad for the end of January. After their Rocky Top high, Tennessee is looking like a team without the services of its best player.

• Oklahoma State is starting to normalize with another win at Texas A&M. The margin for error remains small for Travis Ford. Their next four are @ Missouri, v. Texas, @ Texas Tech, v. Oklahoma. So, that's 2 road games, 1 against a top 5 opponent, and another against your in-state rival who hates your guts and has a mental edge from a prior win. We'll know a lot more about this team's heart (Eaton and Harris were huge losses) very soon.

10 Friday Night Thoughts: Clement-Style

Last night was so much fun…let’s do it again!!!

{Check out Thursday night's reactions HERE}

Perhaps a few of us here at PHSports were a little too rough on the over-seeded Sooners. Perhaps.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) Ladies and Gentlemen…we have our buzzer beater!
It might not be a clip of “the shot”, but it’s hilarious nevertheless. As for “the shot”, you had to see it live to truly enjoy it. (I was teaching Economic Systems to 8^th graders, lucky me!) Either way, we got our buzzer beater and we all but automatically have our Cinderella-story out of the West Region (more below).

2) UCONN’t beat the Toreros.
Call me a hater, but I LOVE when opening nights respectively have Arizona and UCONN losing. Especially when the Huskies – who had lost team-MVP AJ Price to injury – lose as a 4-seed to arguably the WCC’s 3^rd team. Yeah, I’m hatin!

3) Bracketbusting.
You might’ve had Drake or UCONN in the Sweet Sixteen (likely taking on UCLA); however, I doubt many of you had Western Kentucky or San Diego in that spot. Ahhh, the beauty of the tournament. 4 and 5 seeds are often the most vulnerable teams out there. Not to mention, I LOVE when UCONN loses. I LOVE IT! Meanwhile, in the night caps, Vanderbilt trailed throughout (brilliant idea picking them to go to the Sweet 16, Clement) to high-flying Siena and ended up being the second 4-seed of the day to bow out early (far too early in my opinion).

4) 1-Seeds hold serve. No surprise.
Mount St. Mary’s might’ve kept pace with the Heels for the first ten minutes; yet, they clearly proved why they were contestants in the play-in game and why the Heels are the #1 overall seed. Ditto for Memphis and TX-Arlington, a game I didn't watch one second of.

5) Those pesky 8/9 games.
You get Oregon, who is nowhere near a 9-seed, matched up against an erratic 8^th-seeded Mississippi State. Good luck. Next up, you have an overhyped Indiana-team going against an under-the-radar Arkansas-squad. Good luck, again. We know who won. Question is: did you get BOTH games right?

6) Bruce Pearl…isn’t happy. Brad Stevens is ecstatic!
Win a game by 15 points and the majority of the media and nation are thoroughly disgusted with your performance. Bruce Pearl will light up like a firecracker (or a Mentos in Diet Coke) over the next 24-hours enough to make sure the Vols are more focused and more physical, especially since Butler looked THAT good. South Alabama wasn’t bad, it’s just the Bulldogs were again THAT good. Their three-point shooting was phenomenal (specifically Pete Campbell’s torching 8-10 from behind the arc performance) and Butler reminded quite a few of us of their potential. How they earned a 7-seed still baffles me. However, I know I’ll be in front of a TV for this matchup Sunday afternoon.

7) OK-lahoma!
They were obviously an overrated 6-seed, but was it fair to completely disrespect the Sooners? Probably not. Was it also a mistake to completely overrate a St. Joe’s team who got in by beating Xavier twice? Definitely. The Sooners, led by former VCU head coach Jeff Capel (plug!) shot nearly 60% the entire game as they throttled the second-to-last remaining A-10 squad. Boomer Sooner 72-64!

8) Oregon Trail
Oregon didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. They don’t deserve analysis. Thankfully, Mississippi State overcame an early deficit and won. Thank you, Starkville. Bye bye, Quack Attack.

9) Which Indiana team showed up?
CBS was asking it over and over and over…and over. In the end, Indiana will most likely be left asking themselves, “What might’ve happened if Sampson was never dismissed from the team?” Of course, a more fair question might be, “What if Sampson never violated any of the NCAA rules, again”. Nevertheless, Sonny Weems and a somewhat underrated Arkansas squad (their 9-seed was mainly a result of the SEC Final loss to Georgia) took out the Hooisers and pitted themselves against white-hot UNC. Not much of a reward, huh?

10) Late night…FEAST???
To be honest, Memphis/TX-Arlington & Louisville/Boise State seemed like snorers two days before they began. In the end, both games lacked drama. Both cruised to victories in the late night hours. However, there was definite intrigue on viewing the likes of Eric Gordon/DJ White/Patrick Beverly in one matchup and the wide-open 5/12 matchup of Clemson v. Villanova. While the aforementioned Razorback victory wasn’t filled with too much intrigue, there was more than enough reasons to view Villanova’s impressive 18-point comeback against the Clemson Tigers (the only one of four ACC teams to lose in the opening round). With more victories than any other 12-seed in nearly 30 years, Jay Wright’s crew reminded the nation of their talent and their grit. With Vanderbilt’s loss to Siena, we now have two brackets in which a 12 or 13 will advance to the Sweet Sixteen (Siena/Villanova in the Midwest and Western Kentucky/San Diego out West). The real question soon becomes: is Villanova capable of being a legit Cinderella?

I just can’t help myself. Time for numero 11!

11) Saturday…Saturday…Saturday Saturday Saturday
Tons of matchups I want to see tomorrow. TONS! Wisconsin/Kansas State (who dictates the pace early and often), Notre Dame/WASU (arguably Thursday’s top two performers), Marquette/Stanford (speed vs. size), and Pittsburgh/Michigan State (who’s hotter than Pitt or more schizo than MSU?). WOW. Not to mention, A&M has the talent (I said talent) to keep its game with UCLA more than interesting and Xavier remains the wild-card the entire media seems to be rooting for (even a #3-seed) out West.

A&M has tons of talent, like Josh Carter, but are they disciplined enough to maintain focus under a suffocating Bruins defensive attack?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

See you later today!!!

Enjoy the day.

PHSports Staff Picks & Predictions: NCAA Tournament

Here they are (just in time)…the PHSports Staff Picks for March Madness!!!!

Before you start laughing, or hyperventilating if you remembered to actually fill out the $5-million bracket, I have to admit that we here at PHSports have been on a a bit of roll as of late (except for that whole Super Bowl-ordeal) predicting key games. Not to mention, several of us at least ½, if not ¾ of last year's Final Four squads (including a Florida pick or two to repeat in '07).

So sit back and relax…and watch us pick either UNC or UCLA to cut down the nets. JUST like EVERYBODY else!!!!

Do YOU trust this man with your team's Final Four aspirations?
Credit: CollegeInsider.com

Note: If you’re feeling a little down in-between games, feel free to check out:
-Players we LOVE in March Madness
-Upsets we LOVE in March Madness
-Games we LOVE in March Madness
-A Dozen Thoughts on the Bracket and Selection Sunday

Paymon’s Picks:
Final Four: UNC (East), Kansas (Midwest), Texas (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: UCLA (preseason pick)
MOP: Darren Collison

Top Sleeper: Oral Roberts
Under the Radar: Michigan State
Underrated: Davidson
Overrated: Oklahoma

1^st -Round Upset I Love : St. Joseph's over Oklahoma
2^nd -Round Matchup I'm Craving : Tennessee v. Butler/South Alabama
Final Comment : I'm not terribly enthused about this tournament field. I expect upsets to be few and far between in the 1st round, allowing for more upsets to occur in the later rounds. Though history deems it unlikely, this will be a tournament dominated by the elite teams. If that is the case, UCLA - a team with Final Four pedigree - finally has a dominant interior force to balance their fantastic guard play.

Clement’s Picks
Final Four: UNC (East), Wisconsin (Midwest), Texas (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: North Carolina
MOP: Ty Lawson

Top Sleeper: George Mason (duh)
Under the Radar: Kent State
Underrated: Michigan State
Overrated: Clemson

1^st-Round Upset I Love: Boise State over Louisville
2^nd-Round Matchup I’m Craving: Pittsburgh v. Michigan State
Final Comment: This is a boring boring boring bracket. Note to the committee: stop servicing the ratings and big-wigs and STOP pairing mid-majors early in order to eliminate as many as possible before the second weekend.

Note: This is the first year in the nearly a decade I haven't taken my pre-season pick (this year it was Kansas) to cut down the nets in April. Honestly, I can't take a Bill Self-coached team in April (I still don't know how I did it back in October). I just can't!

Armin’s Picks
Final Four: UNC (East), Vanderbilt (Midwest), Memphis (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: UCLA
MOP: Kevin Love

Top Sleeper: St. Joseph’s
Under the Radar: Butler
Underrated: Western Kentucky
Overrated: Georgetown

1st-Round Upset I Love: George Mason over Notre Dame
2nd-Round Matchup I’m Craving: Duke v. Arizona
Final Comment: This tournament is RIPE with potential upsets, but the top seeds will prevail.

Sum’s Picks
Final Four: Tennessee (East), Kansas (Midwest), Texas (South), & UCLA (West)
National Champions: UCLA
MOP: Luc Richard Mbah a Moute

Top Sleeper: St. Joseph’s
Under the Radar: Mississippi State
Underrated: Arkansas
Overrated: Duke

1st-Round Upset I Love: Mason over Notre Dame (What can I say? I'm a homer!)
2nd-Round Matchup I'm Craving: St. Joe's vs. Louisville
Final Comment: With such a top-heavy tourney, if anyone other than a 1 or 2 seed wins it all, that'll be an upset.

The majority of our staff is CAA-biased. Obviously.
However, we're also steadfast in taking Mason over the Harongodys.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Want to chime in your own opinions??? Well GO FOR IT!!!! COMMENT!

Streaming updates will begin minutes after tip-off begins.

Check in all day and ALL WEEKEND LONG!

See you later today for streaming updates!!!

Saturday’s College Basketball Wrap-Up

We’ll start at the top with North Carolina. As expected, they took care of business, but 43-13 is an embarrassing halftime scoreline to swallow for in-state rival North Carolina State. While giving praise to the Tar Heels for their play, ESPN’s Jay Bilas also suggested that the Wolfpack have major chemistry issues. Having viewed as much as I can handle with a full slate of competitive games on the docket, Bilas’s conjecture seems correct. Of course, it’s easy to be down to North Carolina by 30 points at the interval when they are rolling on all cylinders and the opposition settles for long-distance heaves.

Anyone who did not see the finish to the UConn-Georgetown game may be thinking that there’s another Hibbert on the Hoyas roster, because the 7’2” center nailed a three-pointer with less than five seconds in regulation to earn the home team a 72-69 triumph at the Verizon Center. Right now, I am kicking myself for not getting tickets when I could have to see the Hibbert/Thabeet showdown.

Vanderbilt got knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens at Rupp Arena. Welcome to traveling on the road in the SEC.

Texas got scorched by Missouri. While receiving solid production from their big three – DJ Augustin, Damion James and AJ Abrams – the rest of the team contributed a whopping 19 points and 16 rebounds. This will have to change if Texas wants to remain in 2-seed consideration come Selection Sunday.

Another victim of the shock was none other than Michigan State. Who knew that you could beat a legitimate top 10 opponent by shooting 27.5% from the field and miss 13 free throws? Iowa head coach Todd Lickliter must have preached ball security, because committing eight turnovers versus eighteen for the Spartans is what won the game for the Hawkeyes.

At Westwood, UCLA outlasted Washington State. It was a story of two games – the first 38 minutes where WASU failed to make a basket and the second when they knocked down 7 straight three-pointers. Yes, seven.

Outside of the BCS conferences, Drake and Illinois State continue to be the pacesetters in the Missouri Valley. At some point, I expect at least one member of the old guard – Southern Illinois, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Wichita State – to wake up.

In the Colonial, Delaware (you mean that was picked 12th by the foremost expert on the conference?) is 5-0 in conference play and have been a different team since one game after a number of transfers joined the squad. This week, the Blue Hens required overtime in wins against George Mason and Old Dominion.

I could dabble with the goings-on of other conferences, but they will get their fair share of love in the bracket projections that will be available tomorrow.

Saturday’s College Basketball Musings

Exactly like the title indicates, these thoughts are unsystematic …

Kansas is awfully good. I still think they’re still a player thin in the frontcourt, but having Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun as your only bigs is a major positive. Mario Chalmers may be the nation's best defensive player. PERIOD.

Butler is doing everything to legitimize the 4-seed I gave them in the pre-season projections. We all knew the backcourt tandem of Green and Graves (yes, in that order) would be dominant, but freshman Matt Howard has made some forget about the losses of Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oregon has done nothing but disappoint. Mark January 5 as a possible turning point. Though Arizona was without do-everything guard Jerryd Bayless, the Ducks were unstoppable from behind the arc (10 for 22). Consider this a step back for the Wildcats who have shown marked improvement on the defensive end with Kevin O’Neill at the helm.

Despite improving to 10-3, NC State has driven me nuts. Sure, you lost your point guard for the year to a brutal injury. To have Presbyterian (1-18) sniffing at your heels for about 39 minutes is insulting to a program that has NCAA tournament aspirations. This can’t be too encouraging with the ACC schedule right around the corner.

If Vanderbilt continues to play with this level of fervor and resolve all season, you can just give National Coach of the Year honors to Kevin Stallings. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars (17.0 ppg) and Dan Cage (11.2 ppg), they were an afterthought. Someone forgot to send that memo to Stallings and company.

Kentucky sucks. No analysis needed. Youth or not, these results are unacceptable given the talent in place. Imagine if Tubby was 6-7. It would have never gotten that far.

Here’s a scary statistic: the SEC is the 8th-rated conference according to the RPI. Entering today’s play, only five SEC teams are rated in the top 100. Does this mean that the SEC, if this ranking holds, will have no more than three representatives dancing in March? If the ranking holds and justice is served, then that answer will be an emphatic “YES!”

Friday Night Tournament Previews

Last night, the chalk held and I remain disgusted by Tennessee's inability to put away Ohio State. Tonight, we might be in store for the same, which is good for college basketball's elite as well as the ratings for the Elite 8 games.

Clement and I are splitting up the regions. He's got Georgetown/Vanderbilt and Oregon/UNLV and I've got the two #1 seeds versus the upstart #5 seeds.

East Region Game #1
#2. Georgetown vs. #6. Vanderbilt
It's tough to pick directly against your Cinderella, but I expect the Hoyas to dictate every piece of this game on Friday. While Hibbert often seems entrenched in granite, he has looked smooth enough thus far, alongside Jeff Green (who always seems to play well when it matters most). The key may be role players like Sapp, Ewing Jr., and Summers if the Hoyas plan to take the wind out of the sails of the Commodores. Speaking of which, don't underestimate what it took to take down Washington State in double overtime. Often the hardest part of advancing deep into the tournament are those difficult early games. Derrick Byars is an insane talent who demands the ball when it matters (which coaches always love). While Vandy has a lot going against them, the SEC has upset the Big East before in similar surprising fashion (ala Alabama over the Orange in 2004).

Players to Watch: Patrick Ewing Jr. [Georgetown] & Shan Foster [Vanderbilt]
Moment of Truth: If Vandy falls down 6 or 8 within a few minutes, will they attempt to shoot the gym out with poorly-placed threes…or work the ball through the Georgetown defense and take smartly-placed threes? We shall see.

East Region Game #2
#1. North Carolina vs. #5. USC
When analyzing this game, one question immediately comes to mind. Okay, about three. Does USC have enough bodies to compete with North Carolina for the last 10 minutes of the game? Can USC get a repeat performance of Sunday from both Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett? Did Lodrick Stewart really have a root canal on Tuesday or are they just trying to soften up the Heels? One thing Tim Floyd can exploit is the relative weakness of Carolina's swingmen. Nick Young is a stud. Ellington is young and Reyshawn Terry is struggling with potential strep. Gabe Pruitt and Ty Lawson are expected to entertain.

Players to Watch: Daniel Hackett [USC] & Reyshawn Terry [North Carolina]
Moment of Truth: If Carolina is down late, who will be the player to step up alongside Tyler Hansbrough? How will Tim Floyd counteract the depth of Carolina, especially in the frontcourt?

Midwest Region Game #1
#1. Florida vs. #5. Butler
Another contrast in styles in store for this game, but not to the extent of Kansas and Southern Illinois last night. The Gators score 80 per game while the Bulldogs only give up 57, so expect Butler's ball-handlers to slow this game down. If Butler wins this game, it will be because of their ball security courtesy of Graves and Green, their ability to get to the free throw line, and of course, the trifecta. The annoyance factor must come into play as well for Butler. Florida has to be good for 30-35 minutes to be certain of victory and be resolute in their decision making. They must also take advantage of the hefty size disparity between the national champion and the mid-major. If Taurean Green can hold his own and find Humphrey, then Florida should be playing on Sunday against the Oregon/UNLV winner.

Players to Watch: Taurean Green [Florida] and Pete Campbell [Butler]
Moment of Truth: Butler's poise and ability to make open shots will determine whether this one will be decided in the final 5 minutes. If such is the case, chalk may finally not hold.

Midwest Region Game #2
#3. Oregon vs. #7. UNLV
An underrated game to say the least…in fact it's the one I'm dying to see. You might snicker, but the coaches are talented [Kent & Kruger] and the teams are filled with talented player who are fun to watch [i.e. Tajuan Porter & Kevin Kruger]. Both teams have been a little fortunate to face sub-par shooting [especially UNLV], yet both teams capitalize on opponent's mistakes and have performed well when their leads appear to be shrinking to nothing. In fact, it's this back-and-forth style which makes this game so intriguing. It could definitely be worth of an overtime session…or two.

Players to Watch: Wendell White [UNLV] & Bryce Taylor [Oregon]
Moment of Truth: UNLV has been a team of spurts, runs, and often droughts this season. Oregon could be the hottest team in the country right now. So in essence, UNLV needs to start well during the first 4-6 minutes. I'm not saying they need to be up 12, but they better not be down 12.

NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference)

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone, and unless you had Wisconsin or a dark horse going far, your bracket is still in decent shape. The preservation of the top seeds only amplifies the quality of matchups that will take place this upcoming weekend starting with Thursday night.

The only major upset of the weekend was UNLV eliminating Wisconsin in Chicago. I was surprised when Washington State forgot how to play perimeter defense against Vanderbilt in what turned out to be a double overtime defeat.

There is no perfect way to gauge conference performance, but what we can do is look at expected and actual numbers from the multi-bid conferences. For the record, it’s not completely scientific, but it does work with the seeds designated by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

Conference	Actual Record	Expected Record	Actual vs. Expected Difference	Actual Sweet 16 teams	Expected Sweet 16 teams	Sweet 16 Difference
ACC	6-6	9-4	-2.5	1	3	-2
SEC	7-2	5-4	+2.0	3	1	+2
Pac-10	7-3	8-3	-0.5	3	3	0
Big Ten	6-5	5-4	0*	1	2	-1
Big East	5-4	7-4	-1.0	2	2	0
Missouri Valley	2-1	2-1	0	1	1	0
Big XII	5-2	6-1	-1.0	2	3	-1
Mountain West	2-1	2-2	+0.5	1	0	+1
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-1	1-2	+1.0	1	0	+1
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* lower winning percentage for actual record

When staring at these statistics, a few things jump out.

• First, the ACC has done the worst job of “holding” seeds in this tournament. In three games, a member school has lost to a lower seed. In Virginia’s case, many feel that they were generously seeded.

• Second, the SEC (the SEC East, in particular) has been stellar. In my opinion, Tennessee had the good fortune of being in a pod with three overseeded teams. I will never understand an objective argument describing how either Virginia or Long Beach State deserved within one seed line of their given seed. Had Wazzou held onto their double-digit lead against Vanderbilt, we’d be discussing the Pac-10 in this spot.

• Third, … so the Big Ten wasn’t as bad as I thought they were. I stand by my somewhat inflammatory (yet factually based) comments about Illinois. I watched a fair amount during the regular season and preferred to watch the good defensive teams of the Valley instead of the Big Ten save Ohio State and Wisconsin. Like last year, the Big Ten had a lazy Sunday this year.

• Fourth, the end game for the Big East is what we expected after the first weekend – Georgetown and Pittsburgh move on and everyone else going home. What we didn’t expect were all of the close games. While the nation expected VCU to keel over and die after being down 19 in the second half, I was more surprised by the sustained effort of Boston College against Georgetown. The Big East record might have been better had Jerel McNeal and Mike Nardi been healthier, but I don’t believe that a healthy McNeal or Nardi would have altered the number of Big East teams in the Sweet 16.

• Lastly, I, for one, thought a few of the seedings were shrouded in subjectivity. Of course, I can talk for hours about Virginia, who actually played some quality basketball in the tournament - unlike the two weeks leading up to the NCAAs. There’s also UNLV, who we projected as a 4-seed (actual: 7-seed), and then *stunned* Wisconsin. The two that have the committee smiling are Butler and Vanderbilt. Following the method of previous selection committees, many bracketologists placed less value on November victories; however, Butler received a 5-seed, compared to an 8-seed, which was projected by a group of 30 bracketologists. To their defense, they validated the seed and overachieved by defeating a good Old Dominion team (who played a bad game, trust me) and a favored Maryland squad. As for the Commodores, their 5-5 close to the season capped by two non-road defeats to Arkansas had people thinking that they were destined for the doomed 8-seed. As it was, Vanderbilt got a 6-seed, trounced a GW team that was happy to be in the dance and gutted out a thriller against the Cougars.

One thing we do know is that, despite the chatter – mainly by ESPN guys who have more airtime than substantive material to fill it with - there was no George Mason this year. USC (5), Butler (5), Vanderbilt (6), and UNLV (7) are the only non-protected seeds that advanced the round of 16. All in all, this is just one weekend, and much of this story has yet to unfold. That is the beauty of this madness that takes place annually in March and grips us to our sofas for hours on end. By next weekend, 16 will have become 4 and more stories will be etched into our permanent memory. Until the games return in 89 hours, savor the quality of basketball we’ve enjoyed over this past weekend and do your best to resist watching the NIT (that is, unless you have a rooting interest).

NCAA Tournament Preview

We are now just hours and minutes away from the start of the NCAA Tournament. Clement and Paymon look into Final Four picks, what to expect, what not to expect, and the names who'll make this tournament memorable.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Clement

Final Four: [East] UNC, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
-UNC has the most actual talent in college basketball and has a very experienced coaching staff, headed of course by Roy Williams, who has worked his depth quite well this season. They’ll outlast Durant and truth be told, I don’t buy Georgetown’s backcourt enough to get past the Heels in a potential dynamic Elite Eight matchup.
-I’ve been ridin’ Acie Law IV all season long. He’s the most clutch player I’ve seen in college basketball this season and I believe the Aggie can control the tempo of the game easily with teams like Memphis or Nevada. A&M also has just enough outside shooting, especially with the streaky Kavaliauskas, to keep Oden away from the boards enough to upset the Buckeyes. My love for them clearly means they’re out by the first weekend though.
-UCLA is the team to beat out West, never leaving the state of California if they keep winning, until the trip to Atlanta for their second-straight Final Four. While Kansas provides scary matchups, Darren Collison is healthier than he’s been in recent weeks and their depth is sorely underrated.
-Florida is the team to beat. While such monikers have plagued squads like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years…it’s also aided teams like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years. As long as they stay healthy and can get two strong shooting nights from Lee Humphrey out of four, they’ll wind up back in the Final Four.

National Championship : UNC vs. Florida
-Predictable, I know. Yet I also felt that way two years ago when Illinois and UNC seemed the two clear favorites to reach the title game. Yet, I see the Baby Heels falling a bit short this time. Horford and Noah may get a lot more calls against Hansbrough than many UNC fans, or Gator-haters, are willing to accept. I also believe Taurean Green can run with the best of them and would be the tipping point for a narrow 5-point Gator victory. Repeat!

Tournament MOP: Al Horford, Florida Gators
-While Noah is the poster-boy, Horford is the better talent. He’ll dominate against UCLA again and find himself ending up with 16 and 11 against the Heels. This guy will be picked in the draft right before teammate Noah…and this will show EVERYONE why.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
-Alright Winthrop. Put-up or shut up time. Notre Dame is lethal from behind the arc, but more often than not you die by the three before you live by it for two or three straight tournament games. Look for Craig Bradshaw’s name early and often if the Eagles have a real shot of upsetting the Irish. Memo to Mike Bray: wear a tie, please! You look hideous in the sport/coat and solid shirt. Hideous.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: #11. VCU over #6. Duke & #12. Old Dominion over #5. Butler
-Nothing but biased CAA love. ODU bit me two years ago, when Michigan State rolled all the way to the Final Four after defeating Isaiah Hunter and company. Ditto with VCU, who I naively had defeating Wake (they did only lose by 1) only three tournament brackets ago (my worst ever, by the way). Either way, go CAA go.

Sleeper/Cinderella: Vanderbilt Commodores [East Region] & UNLV Runnin’ Rebels [Midwest Region]
-Vandy’s style of play could have them trailing by fifteen merely fifteen minutes in their opening game. Yet, I view Washington State as the weakest 3-seed (much as I did Tennessee as the weakest 2-last year losing to Wichita State in my bracket) and think Vandy can shoot lights out against Georgetown and control the pact of the game. Who knows if they can honestly make the Elite Eight, but why not have some fun? As for UNLV, it’s nothing more than a feeling and their RPI. That’s all I can really say.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Nevada’s guard Marcellus Kemp
-He can drop 25 and all you thought about all game long was Fazekas. It’s imperative to get by Creighton AND to match up well with the athletes of Memphis that the Wolfpack rely on their best pure perimeter player. I just have a hunch the name Kemp may sound like the name Wheeler did several tournaments ago.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Tubby Smith, Kentucky
-Don’t let the AD comment’s fool you, the guy needs a win. Villanova is probably favored and Tubby knows this. He needs the opportunity to stun a #1 as badly as any coach with an underachieving program this year.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Kansas Jayhawks as National Champs
-Losses to Bucknell and Bradley aren’t the worst things in the world, but what has Bill Self done in Kansas except recruit exceptionally well? While their road is relatively easy until the Elite Eight, it’s put-up or shut-up time for a school that has never won the biggest games since the days of Danny Manning.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Texas upsetting North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen
-I don’t even know if Texas will be in this game to be honest. Ditto with UNC if Michigan State is up to old ridiculous tricks. Riding freshman is fun (see Pervis, Melo, and a cast of others)…but it’s still rare that it works out with a Final Four appearance. Augustin might be just as key as Durant is in all of this. Ditto with the outside shooting of Abrams. Yet, Rick Barnes is starting to become one of the better coaches, and not just recruiters, in the nation. If the mask does bother Hansbrough just enough and Reyshawn Terry can’t shoot at all for one night (which is never out of the question), perhaps Texas could survive in a shootout with the Tar Heels. Perhaps.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Paymon

Final Four: [East] Georgetown, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
- Yes, I’m going against my Tar Heels. Could it be the youth? Could it be playing to the level of their opponents? It could also be that should they make it to the Elite 8, they’ll likely have Hoya Paranoia waiting in the wings. I’m not saying that we’ll see the Hoyas faithful clad in Starter jackets, but they’ll be at East Rutherford cheering on their team. Anyways, the better, more experienced team wins.
- In the South, is it that I love Acie Law IV a lot or that I remain unimpressed by the Buckeyes? Mind you, they embarrassed a Butch-less Wisconsin on Sunday. If the Aggies can overcome Memphis in the Sweet 16, I can see Joseph Jones playing the game of his life and Josh Carter hitting the 3s to assist the aforementioned Law IV en route to a Final Four trip.
- A lot of Kansas and Memphis fans have a legit beef with UCLA. For the second time in as many years, UCLA gets the second, but will be playing in their home state as the #2 seed should they advance to the regional semifinals. Home-state advantage or not, the Bruins need to do things: forget about their last two games and get Darren Collison’s sprained ankle to heal.
- I’ll let the real media gush over Florida. They’re good. Nothing I say will be new to you, so I won’t insult your intelligence. If they play Wisconsin in the regional final and Brian Butch is healthy, we may have a game on our hands. Otherwise, they’ll be Gator bait.

National Championship : Georgetown vs. Florida
- Georgetown is the sexy pick to make the finals and take out the Gators. Why? Last year, they came the closest. At this point last season, the Hoyas weren’t quite this dominant. While Georgetown is the hottest team in the country and the team that absolutely no one wants to face, they may be due for the momentary lapse due to their relative inexperience in the backcourt. Last season, the Hoyas let the eventual champions escape - not so this year. Green, Humphrey, and Brewer will give Georgetown fits, but the other Green (Jeff) will be cutting down the nets as he determines whether to go pro.

Tournament MOP: Jeff Green, Georgetown Hoyas
- Green epitomizes the hard working team that JTIII has developed. He has all the tools necessary for the NBA yet he wasn't even in the Top 150 recruits according to rivals.com. Additionally, he has gotten over his weakness, free throw shooting, making him even more of a go-to guy down the stretch for the Hoyas. His calming presence to the inexperienced guards will not be overlooked by admirers.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
- My prediction is that a lot of 3-point shots will be hoisted. We all know about the stellar three-guard lineups of both teams, but it will be the matchups inside that determine the victor. My bet is on the Kiwi – Craig Bradshaw.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: Old Dominion over Butler; Winthrop over Notre Dame; VCU over Duke
- Yes, I’m also guilty of the biased CAA love; however, having watched these teams on multiple teams, I know that both can bring it especially when given favorable draws. In ODU’s case, which ODU team will come out? Valdas Vasylius can really have a whale of a game if he asserts himself inside. Watch out for Gerald Lee, who is a star in the making. As for Winthrop, I’ve been touting this team all year, and with good reason. The worst team they lost to all season was Maryland. I’m sure Notre Dame fans use the transitive property (i.e. we beat Maryland and you lost to them; therefore, we are better than you – AKA “The ODU fan base special”) to assert their pre-dominance. I just like Winthrop, their determination, and I feel bad for Notre Dame if they lose, because they’ve played well the last time to rid of themselves of potential fraud status (see Illinois and Purdue). As for Duke, I haven’t liked them at all this year and not because I hate them intrinsically as a UNC supporter. They’re not deep, their ball-handling is suspect, and VCU forces turnovers. Greg Paulus needs to play one of his best games and Scheyer (not this guy) needs to hit those 3s if Duke wants to plays Pitt or Wright State (or Shight State, as my brother put it).

Sleeper/Cinderella: Winthrop Eagles [Midwest Region]
- I would say Southern Illinois, but the Salukis are pretty well-known for their suffocating defense. With that said, the easy choice is Winthrop out of the Big South Conference. All this team does is win games.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Tony Young, G, Southern Illinois.
- Young is a guy that every coach wants on his team -- a physical defender, a solid long distance shooter, and an overall scrapper. If the Salukis end up making noise for the right reasons, Young will play a formidable role.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Bill Self, Kansas Jayhawks
- How many more seasons can he go without a long tournament run? If memory serves correct, Self’s longest run was with Tulsa in 2000 when they lost in the Elite 8 to #8 seed North Carolina. He needs a run like none other, as it’s unrealistic to expect all of those talented players to stick around for a few more years.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Georgetown Hoyas as National Champs
- In a way, I’m calling myself out. Think about it though. Who has Georgetown beaten this year outside of Pittsburgh twice? People are wooed by the way they play and their quiet confidence – a stark contrast to the sideshow that is the Florida Gators.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Southern Illinois getting to the Sweet Sixteen
-Let’s get one thing straight. The Salukis do not play an attractive style of basketball. However, they play great defense and are tough to beat when Tatum and Falker are on. Strangely enough, many are writing off SIU as they face a stingy Holy Cross capable of the upset and potentially Virginia Tech, who are among the most athletic teams in the field.