NCAA Tournament Preview

We are now just hours and minutes away from the start of the NCAA Tournament. Clement and Paymon look into Final Four picks, what to expect, what not to expect, and the names who'll make this tournament memorable.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Clement

Final Four: [East] UNC, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
-UNC has the most actual talent in college basketball and has a very experienced coaching staff, headed of course by Roy Williams, who has worked his depth quite well this season. They’ll outlast Durant and truth be told, I don’t buy Georgetown’s backcourt enough to get past the Heels in a potential dynamic Elite Eight matchup.
-I’ve been ridin’ Acie Law IV all season long. He’s the most clutch player I’ve seen in college basketball this season and I believe the Aggie can control the tempo of the game easily with teams like Memphis or Nevada. A&M also has just enough outside shooting, especially with the streaky Kavaliauskas, to keep Oden away from the boards enough to upset the Buckeyes. My love for them clearly means they’re out by the first weekend though.
-UCLA is the team to beat out West, never leaving the state of California if they keep winning, until the trip to Atlanta for their second-straight Final Four. While Kansas provides scary matchups, Darren Collison is healthier than he’s been in recent weeks and their depth is sorely underrated.
-Florida is the team to beat. While such monikers have plagued squads like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years…it’s also aided teams like Duke, Kentucky, and UCONN over the past few years. As long as they stay healthy and can get two strong shooting nights from Lee Humphrey out of four, they’ll wind up back in the Final Four.

National Championship : UNC vs. Florida
-Predictable, I know. Yet I also felt that way two years ago when Illinois and UNC seemed the two clear favorites to reach the title game. Yet, I see the Baby Heels falling a bit short this time. Horford and Noah may get a lot more calls against Hansbrough than many UNC fans, or Gator-haters, are willing to accept. I also believe Taurean Green can run with the best of them and would be the tipping point for a narrow 5-point Gator victory. Repeat!

Tournament MOP: Al Horford, Florida Gators
-While Noah is the poster-boy, Horford is the better talent. He’ll dominate against UCLA again and find himself ending up with 16 and 11 against the Heels. This guy will be picked in the draft right before teammate Noah…and this will show EVERYONE why.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
-Alright Winthrop. Put-up or shut up time. Notre Dame is lethal from behind the arc, but more often than not you die by the three before you live by it for two or three straight tournament games. Look for Craig Bradshaw’s name early and often if the Eagles have a real shot of upsetting the Irish. Memo to Mike Bray: wear a tie, please! You look hideous in the sport/coat and solid shirt. Hideous.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: #11. VCU over #6. Duke & #12. Old Dominion over #5. Butler
-Nothing but biased CAA love. ODU bit me two years ago, when Michigan State rolled all the way to the Final Four after defeating Isaiah Hunter and company. Ditto with VCU, who I naively had defeating Wake (they did only lose by 1) only three tournament brackets ago (my worst ever, by the way). Either way, go CAA go.

Sleeper/Cinderella: Vanderbilt Commodores [East Region] & UNLV Runnin’ Rebels [Midwest Region]
-Vandy’s style of play could have them trailing by fifteen merely fifteen minutes in their opening game. Yet, I view Washington State as the weakest 3-seed (much as I did Tennessee as the weakest 2-last year losing to Wichita State in my bracket) and think Vandy can shoot lights out against Georgetown and control the pact of the game. Who knows if they can honestly make the Elite Eight, but why not have some fun? As for UNLV, it’s nothing more than a feeling and their RPI. That’s all I can really say.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Nevada’s guard Marcellus Kemp
-He can drop 25 and all you thought about all game long was Fazekas. It’s imperative to get by Creighton AND to match up well with the athletes of Memphis that the Wolfpack rely on their best pure perimeter player. I just have a hunch the name Kemp may sound like the name Wheeler did several tournaments ago.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Tubby Smith, Kentucky
-Don’t let the AD comment’s fool you, the guy needs a win. Villanova is probably favored and Tubby knows this. He needs the opportunity to stun a #1 as badly as any coach with an underachieving program this year.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Kansas Jayhawks as National Champs
-Losses to Bucknell and Bradley aren’t the worst things in the world, but what has Bill Self done in Kansas except recruit exceptionally well? While their road is relatively easy until the Elite Eight, it’s put-up or shut-up time for a school that has never won the biggest games since the days of Danny Manning.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Texas upsetting North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen
-I don’t even know if Texas will be in this game to be honest. Ditto with UNC if Michigan State is up to old ridiculous tricks. Riding freshman is fun (see Pervis, Melo, and a cast of others)…but it’s still rare that it works out with a Final Four appearance. Augustin might be just as key as Durant is in all of this. Ditto with the outside shooting of Abrams. Yet, Rick Barnes is starting to become one of the better coaches, and not just recruiters, in the nation. If the mask does bother Hansbrough just enough and Reyshawn Terry can’t shoot at all for one night (which is never out of the question), perhaps Texas could survive in a shootout with the Tar Heels. Perhaps.

WHAT TO EXPECT -- Paymon

Final Four: [East] Georgetown, [South] Texas A&M, [West] UCLA, and [Midwest] Florida
- Yes, I’m going against my Tar Heels. Could it be the youth? Could it be playing to the level of their opponents? It could also be that should they make it to the Elite 8, they’ll likely have Hoya Paranoia waiting in the wings. I’m not saying that we’ll see the Hoyas faithful clad in Starter jackets, but they’ll be at East Rutherford cheering on their team. Anyways, the better, more experienced team wins.
- In the South, is it that I love Acie Law IV a lot or that I remain unimpressed by the Buckeyes? Mind you, they embarrassed a Butch-less Wisconsin on Sunday. If the Aggies can overcome Memphis in the Sweet 16, I can see Joseph Jones playing the game of his life and Josh Carter hitting the 3s to assist the aforementioned Law IV en route to a Final Four trip.
- A lot of Kansas and Memphis fans have a legit beef with UCLA. For the second time in as many years, UCLA gets the second, but will be playing in their home state as the #2 seed should they advance to the regional semifinals. Home-state advantage or not, the Bruins need to do things: forget about their last two games and get Darren Collison’s sprained ankle to heal.
- I’ll let the real media gush over Florida. They’re good. Nothing I say will be new to you, so I won’t insult your intelligence. If they play Wisconsin in the regional final and Brian Butch is healthy, we may have a game on our hands. Otherwise, they’ll be Gator bait.

National Championship : Georgetown vs. Florida
- Georgetown is the sexy pick to make the finals and take out the Gators. Why? Last year, they came the closest. At this point last season, the Hoyas weren’t quite this dominant. While Georgetown is the hottest team in the country and the team that absolutely no one wants to face, they may be due for the momentary lapse due to their relative inexperience in the backcourt. Last season, the Hoyas let the eventual champions escape - not so this year. Green, Humphrey, and Brewer will give Georgetown fits, but the other Green (Jeff) will be cutting down the nets as he determines whether to go pro.

Tournament MOP: Jeff Green, Georgetown Hoyas
- Green epitomizes the hard working team that JTIII has developed. He has all the tools necessary for the NBA yet he wasn't even in the Top 150 recruits according to rivals.com. Additionally, he has gotten over his weakness, free throw shooting, making him even more of a go-to guy down the stretch for the Hoyas. His calming presence to the inexperienced guards will not be overlooked by admirers.

Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11. Winthrop [Midwest Region]
- My prediction is that a lot of 3-point shots will be hoisted. We all know about the stellar three-guard lineups of both teams, but it will be the matchups inside that determine the victor. My bet is on the Kiwi – Craig Bradshaw.

Upset(s) of the 1st Round: Old Dominion over Butler; Winthrop over Notre Dame; VCU over Duke
- Yes, I’m also guilty of the biased CAA love; however, having watched these teams on multiple teams, I know that both can bring it especially when given favorable draws. In ODU’s case, which ODU team will come out? Valdas Vasylius can really have a whale of a game if he asserts himself inside. Watch out for Gerald Lee, who is a star in the making. As for Winthrop, I’ve been touting this team all year, and with good reason. The worst team they lost to all season was Maryland. I’m sure Notre Dame fans use the transitive property (i.e. we beat Maryland and you lost to them; therefore, we are better than you – AKA “The ODU fan base special”) to assert their pre-dominance. I just like Winthrop, their determination, and I feel bad for Notre Dame if they lose, because they’ve played well the last time to rid of themselves of potential fraud status (see Illinois and Purdue). As for Duke, I haven’t liked them at all this year and not because I hate them intrinsically as a UNC supporter. They’re not deep, their ball-handling is suspect, and VCU forces turnovers. Greg Paulus needs to play one of his best games and Scheyer (not this guy) needs to hit those 3s if Duke wants to plays Pitt or Wright State (or Shight State, as my brother put it).

Sleeper/Cinderella: Winthrop Eagles [Midwest Region]
- I would say Southern Illinois, but the Salukis are pretty well-known for their suffocating defense. With that said, the easy choice is Winthrop out of the Big South Conference. All this team does is win games.

Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Tony Young, G, Southern Illinois.
- Young is a guy that every coach wants on his team -- a physical defender, a solid long distance shooter, and an overall scrapper. If the Salukis end up making noise for the right reasons, Young will play a formidable role.

Coach with the Most on the Line: Bill Self, Kansas Jayhawks
- How many more seasons can he go without a long tournament run? If memory serves correct, Self’s longest run was with Tulsa in 2000 when they lost in the Elite 8 to #8 seed North Carolina. He needs a run like none other, as it’s unrealistic to expect all of those talented players to stick around for a few more years.

Overrated Pick of the Tournament: Georgetown Hoyas as National Champs
- In a way, I’m calling myself out. Think about it though. Who has Georgetown beaten this year outside of Pittsburgh twice? People are wooed by the way they play and their quiet confidence – a stark contrast to the sideshow that is the Florida Gators.

Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Southern Illinois getting to the Sweet Sixteen
-Let’s get one thing straight. The Salukis do not play an attractive style of basketball. However, they play great defense and are tough to beat when Tatum and Falker are on. Strangely enough, many are writing off SIU as they face a stingy Holy Cross capable of the upset and potentially Virginia Tech, who are among the most athletic teams in the field.

Weekend Observations from the R-I-C

Three days down in Richmond….one to go.

The Aeropostale CAA Men’s Basketball Championship will be decided between the 1-seed Virginia Commonwealth University and the 6-seed, last year’s Cinderella-dejour, George Mason.

This isn’t the first time these two have met in the CAA Title game either. Only four years ago, VCU narrowly defeated George Mason for Jeff Capel’s first-and-only CAA Title on a free-throw from Jesse Pellot-Rosa and a narrow miss on a Jai Lewis fadeaway attempt.

So how’d they get here this year?

Friday Observations
Admittedly absent from the day’s action, there were still plenty of reasons to be in attendance at the Richmond Coliseum for each of the four games. Georgia State took down William & Mary after a nail-biting finish which included a 3-point play by the Tribe with less than 5 ticks to go to take a 1-point lead AND then a fumbling-35 foot prayer by the Panthers’ sophomore star Leonard Mendez to win. Northeastern mercifully ended Delaware’s putrid season rather swiftly following the dramatics. In the night-session, expected winners Towson and George Mason took care of pesky opponents UNC-Wilmington & Just Missed UVA. Fortunately, for everyone in attendance, the UNC-Wilmington Seahawk no longer does a 30-second dance to the chorus of N’Sync’s Bye Bye Bye.

Saturday Observations
50% attendance was a better showing for the big guy. VCU sprinted to an early double-digit lead over Georgia State, withstanding one minor run before cruising to a spot in the semi-finals. Drexel wasted little time, riding CAA Defensive Player of the Year Frank Elegar throughout, in dispatching Northeastern. Old Dominion slipped up early with Towson, but held on late for a rather unconvincing 58-55 victory (farewell Gary Neal). George Mason struck their first major upset of the tournament, taking down 3-seed Hofstra behind solid outside shooting and Hofstra’s gunner Aguido being left all alone in the corner for a potential overtime-forcing trey at the buzzer. Not the end to Lenord Stokes' CAA-career he must have envisioned just a few nights earlier.

Sunday Observations
100% attendance. Every second. Boo ya. VCU, despite two offensive fouls for star point guard Eric Maynor in the first four minutes, took an impressive 10-point halftime lead against the rival Dragons. Despite Bruiser’s complaints for excessive contact, VCU’s press dogged the Dragons and aided in a lead inflating to as many as 18 points with 15 minutes to go. Drexel would cut the lead down to as low as 8 as VCU scored a whopping 2 points over the next 10 minutes. However in the end, VCU made enough key shots and BA Walker sunk several free throws to allow the Rams to become the first entrant into Monday Night’s title game. VCU’s press continues to impress, yet their problem with ball-handling, particularly sans-Manor, led to countless turnovers in a sloppy second-half. Drexel’s student section should be commended for a valiant effort, especially following several of Elegar’s monster jams, but were left with thoughts of the NIT lingering, rather than 100% confidence for an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament. Further proof why I believe that Domonic Mejia is the most overrated player the CAA has seen in several years. George Mason stormed the court early and often against the Lady Monarchs, who seemed lazy and unmotivated for the majority of the game. After a 10-2 opening run, aided in large part by early 3s from Dre Smith and Folarin Campbell, Mason never looked back as they cruised to a double-digit lead only five minutes into the game. At no point could ODU trickle the lead closer than 6 , as the Patriots made just enough free throws (Will Thomas was abysmal at times from the ‘charity strip’) to clinch their second upset victory of the tournament. Coach Larranaga should be praised for an outstanding effort, as well as great ball-handling from the duo of Jordan Carter & Gabe Norwood. Folarin Campbell and Will Thomas put together a pair of 3-point plays to seal any last-gasp run from the seemingly overmatched and outworked Monarchs.

So there we have it. Our Aeropostale CAA Men's Basketball Championship game.
#1 VCU vs. #6 George Mason.

A lot of talk has already begun regarding the at-large chances for Drexel and ODU. Both have strong claims, but admittedly took big blows this weekend (especially ODU for their performances in both games). VCU, who is nowhere near a lock to win the title tomorrow night, staked another win against Drexel (both of their wins over the Dragons this year were away from the Siegel Center) which aided their strengthened at-large claim. Ironically enough, George Mason may yet again sneak into the Big Dance and become a very dangerous out.

Predictions? VCU…will show up. And they’ll win. It might not be pretty, but I seriously wonder if Dre Smith can have a similar outing like he had tonight. What’s the key you ask? It’s got to be two things in my not-so-humble opinion: the ball-handling from George Mason against the VCU press and VCU needing to take an early lead so juniors Michael Anderson and Will Fameni can attempt to keep up with the savvy and tournament-tested Will Thomas. Should be a lot of fun either way. And you know...Clement shall be there.

Dateline: Richmond, Virginia.

The destination…the Aeropostale CAA Championship from March 2^nd to March 5^th.

VCU's Anthony Grant hopes to capture
both regular-season and conference titles
during his first year in Richmond.

Seriously, if you can…be there.
This is one of the most underrated conference tournaments going today.

Just about every year, the first-round provides a stunning game on Friday Night. Just about every year, one of the big dogs gets bit by Cinderella…if only for a night. Just about every year, the crowd is packed (with far too many screaming fans from UNC-W). Just about every year, the championship game brings plenty of drama and a deserving champion.

Here’s hoping this year is no different.
So now it’s time to have a ramblin’ man’s ramblin’ preview. -

Let’s take a look at each of the teams, with a quick one-liner.
#1. VCU [24-6, 16-2]
-Easily the surprise of the year in-conference (picked pre-season to finish 6th). While the Bracketbuster-loss to MVC's Bradley may have them desperate for a title-game appearance for an at-large bid (at best), this is a hungry team that loves to run, shoots the deep-ball as well as anyone in the conference, and can hopefully use the Richmond-area advantage to land their first conference title in three years.

#2. Old Dominion [23-7, 15-3]
-As hot as any team in the country, Blaine Taylor’s crew has gotten real physical and must continue to ride captain Drew Williamson, just as they have throughout their recent 11-game winning streak, if they can punch an automatic ticket to the Big Dance. They come into Richmond as the team to beat, barely.

#3. Hofstra [22-8, 14-4]
-Perhaps a little too under the radar entering Richmond, following one of their best tournament runs in recent memory last year’s (which ended in a CAA Title game defeat to UNC-W), the Pride must ride CAA Player of the Year Loren Stokes (20.8 ppg) to earn their spot in March Madness. The Pride must have the poise and deft shooting touch necessary to control games in the closing minutes for their playmakers to secure close victories.

#4. Drexel [22-7, 13-5]
-A resume that has STACKED road wins [@Cuse,@Vermont,@Villanova] and yet they remain an underdog as a 4-seed. It will be a tough road, but the Dragons are healthy and Mejia is finally starting to sink key shots, after a season I would describe as nothign but hype. Look out for Bruiser’s Dragons though.

#5. Northeastern [12-18,9-9]
-Still getting used to the CAA, a .500-record shows that they played well enough in-conference to be considered trouble in the tournament.

#6. George Mason [15-14, 9-9]
-Never doubt the heart of a champion. 4 Days in Richmond is all it takes. This is not the type of team you want to face if they start making open shots and start feeling confident in themselves.

#7. Towson [14-16, 8-10]
-Gary Neal is the best ticket in town on Friday night. Despite hitting a few too many lumps early this season, Towson has started to make solid strides over the past five seasons in CAA-play.

#8. William and Mary [15-14, 8-10]
-Very young and very hard to read. Should be an entertaining team to check out on Friday night…but nothing more.

#9. Georgia State [10-19, 5-13]
-Wow, quite the drop off as of here. Yet, they almost stunned VCU to close the season (losing 70-72). They may get a re-match with the Rams on Saturday afternoon. Might not go nearly as well for them though.

#10. UNC-Wilmington [7-21, 4-14]
-Took a lot more lumps than many expected in a 'transition year'. Nevertheless, this squad won the CAA title last year and is the toughest 10-seed you’re likely to find in a conference tourney this season.

#11. James Madison [7-22, 4-14]
-There’s not much positive to talk about on the basketball court in Harrisonburg this year (or most years as of late for that matter). Take advantage of Friday night as much as you can against Jorge.

#12. Delaware [5-25, 3-15]
-An absolute embarrassment. Once a legit second-tier team, the Blue Hens were downright abysmal this season and have zero shot to win on Friday night. Zero.

So there we have it. I’ll be there most of the weekend (I attend VCU in case you didn’t already know). Hopefully I'll be enjoying the action much longer than a few others might suppose as a Ram-supporter (in true Clement-fasion, if we lose...I'm out of that Colesium immediately).

Prediction: Old Dominion is a wrecking crew lately. They manhandled Hofstra in Norfolk only a few weeks ago and wore VCU down in a key home-victory over the Rams only a month ago. Nevertheless, their physical style may lead to more than some wear and tear by Monday night. Look for VCU to escape with a narrow victory over Drexel and match up with their big-time rival, OD-Spew, for a classic at 7pm on ESPN for the CAA Title. Who will win? You know its bad luck if you pick your school to…see you Monday night.

Ramblings from a Rambler...

Sure, I'm Mr. NFL to most in the blogsphere...but it isn't that way once March Madness hits.

While my allegiance is almost always with the Orange up in Syracuse...this year has been downright disastrous when it's mattered the most. Tourney hopes are pretty weak at this point. Without an amazing winning streak to end the season (@Providence, Georgetown, and @ Villanova)...there's little to no chance we're in.

And then of course there's my VCU Rams. I'm a current graduate student there, already with an undergrad degree wrapped up, and I have been fiercely loyal to the team, even Derrick Reid, since I've been here. We saw a CAA Title a little over 3 years ago and man did it feel good to be there. Back when guys like BA Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa were freshman. Fast forward to 2007 and the two seniors have been a little flat as of late (especially losing at Hofstra, at ODU, and a pathetic drubbing from Bradley just last night in this year's Bracketbuster).

The conference tournament is merely a week away, of game-action (just under two weeks on the calendar), with a putrid schedule remaining for the league's top teams. Shame on the CAA (yes, SHAME) for this horrific lineup. Hofstra, Mason, ODU, Drexel, and VCU (yes, the big guns of the conference) won't see each other post-Bracketbuster.

Why did this happen? Probably so the "big-guns" would have a week of softies in order to be better prepared for showdowns in the conference tourney. Point is: I don't like it. I don't expect any upsets whatsoever this week...foolish or not.

So where would that leave us? [Assuming everyone wins out with their remaining two in-conference matchups]

#1. VCU [16-2] #2. ODU [15-3] #3. Hofstra [14-4] #4. Drexel [13-5]

That is your elite four of the CAA. Impressive. All worthy of a bid, in my opinion, in the NCAA Tourney. Problem is, they aren't all worthy enough to take away spots from the POWER conference squads who have a quality win or two...yet were as inconsistent as they could've possibly been with their talent (ironic, Syracuse fits that bill quite well).

Don't worry, this isn't a true Clement-tirade. I don't have the patience. I just feel frustrated when a 16-13 team gets in over someone who is 25-5. It happens. Of course, we all realize that BCS-team might be more talented and more built to compete in its major conference. But we don't take into consideration how many chances it got to beat great teams. Mid-majors get one or two major matchups a year. Usually on the road and VERY early on in the season. Good luck with that. Check in with a team like Alabama, Syracuse, Duke, Gonzaga (no longer a real mid-major), South Carolina, Oklahoma, or Michigan...and they got half-a-dozen or more marquee matchups. I get even more upset when I see two mid-level Big Ten schools get a juicy 12pm Saturday tip on ESPN while a mid-major showdown sees ESPN on one Bracketbusting Sunday.

It's just politics with the haves and have-nots. All I will say to each of the four major-contenders to the CAA tournament is this: Show up in Richmond for three days, win the conference tourney, and avoid the agony of being on the bubble.

-VCU lacks a real quality win outside of the CAA and its past 10 might not look to attractive...especially losing at home to a superior Bradley squad (5th in the MVC).
-ODU could be on-fire, but might fall early in the tourney if the refs limit their physicality.
-Hofstra has some BAD losses and may be seen as too live-or-die with their backcourt.
-Drexel seems to have the weakest resume, despite a nice win v. Creighton, in a conference that will only get 2-bids in a best-case scenario.

All of these teams, for ANY sort of hope at an at-large, must lose a nail biter in the conference tournament to have a prayer. It makes for what could be an amazing final two days in Richmond during the CAA Tournament. Hope you have ESPN 8 to be able to see any of them.

Because honestly, even with George Mason of last year (which still doesn't get nearly enough credit for what it did)...neither of the three other teams (or four if Mason makes a similar miracle run) has much of a realistic shot of getting love on Selection Sunday.