Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Bracket Chatter - All About the Bubble
If your team is or was on the bubble, you’re likely taking a mental health day or you feel an ulcer coming on. Either way, my lack of internet connectivity from last night pales in comparison to what you are experiencing.
Here is one question to consider:
What’s more valuable: Winning a conference by three games (Conference RPI: 13) and defeating Houston/Akron/Maryland on a floor other than your home floor or winning your conference on a tie-breaker (Conference RPI: 15) and having your key wins versus Mississippi State and Western Kentucky (twice)? For those just joining us, I’m talking about VCU and South Alabama.
In terms of bad losses, VCU lost @ JMU when they were a RPI top 100 squad, lost to ODU at home on a blown no-call (though I argue they deserve to lose for letting it come to that), and William & Mary in the conference tournament on a neutral court. A common misnomer is that VCU plays at the Richmond Coliseum, site of the CAA tournament. In reality, they play at the Siegel Center. That's an enormous difference considering how well some teams travel, namely UNC-W and now George Mason. The Hampton loss is not forgivable but the loss was in November.
As for South Alabama, they lost at North Texas and dropped two of three against Middle Tennessee State.
Oddly enough, the fates of VCU and South Alabama may be decided by the likes of Houston, Maryland, Akron, Ole Miss, Miami-Ohio, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.
Other talking points
- On George Mason, I was among the final bracket projectionists to switch from Mason to VCU. Even when I begrudgingly ceded the automatic bid to VCU, I knew that if Mason ever decided to play defense, they would win the CAA Tournament. Despite not shooting well from behind the arc for much of their time in Richmond, the Patriots challenged nearly every shot. For the anonymous hater on CAA: LAMM, who, for lack of better words, hated on my lamenting about Mason's love affair with the trifecta, inability to box out or cover the perimeter during the regular season ... thank you. Not only was I dead on, but my alma mater rectified those shortcomings when it mattered most.
- I hate conferences that hold tournaments on the home floor of a team who is not the #1 seed. In essence, it begs teams who would otherwise not make the tournament to do so and party like rock stars on their home floors after winning it all. Yes, I’m talking about you, West Coast Conference. For the record, I am not married to three coming out of that conference, so beware St. Mary’s. The Gaels have a strong resume (RPI: 38) with a solid SOS incorporated into that rating and wins at home versus Drake, Oregon, Seton Hall, San Diego and Gonzaga. Neutral-court triumphs over San Diego State and Ohio may push them over the top if both perform well in their conference tournaments. If you couple losing three of your final five games with the lack of precedence in having three teams from the 14th-best conference (let alone two), then St. Mary’s may be on the outside looking in.
- Who is the Valley #2? Convenience suggests that it’s Illinois State, who won 15 conference games counting the tournament in the nation’s #8 conference. Of course, that is before you factor in their 0-5 record against the Top 50, three losses of which are against Drake. On the flipside, they are 5-0 against squads rated between 51 and 100. Long-forgotten SIU, who let many down, has four wins against the Top 50, but are 17-14 overall, had four less conference victories in the MVC which has balanced scheduling. There’s also Creighton, who boasts a meager 0-6 clip against the Top 50, also losing thrice to Drake.
- Though I very much dislike the transitive property (i.e. Digger's MO), I see it playing a larger role than either Clement or myself would have liked.
Friday, March 23, 2007
Kansas 61 Southern Illinois 58
Dear Big Ten Conference: When you argue that your teams play a grinding style due to great defense, both of these teams probably think that you're using the term "great" too liberally. Kansas didn't exactly take care of business and this biased guy thinks they benefited from some zebra love. In the first half, a no-call on a shot clock violation led to two points for the Jayhawks. In the second half, defensive goaltending was not called on a play where Jamal Tatum was fouled. There was also a shot clock violation called against the Salukis in which you can see (in slow motion) the change in trajectory after Mullins' three-pointer shaved the rim. Of course, Matt Shaw missed a gimmie layup in the last three minutes and Kansas shot 60% for the game. Credit must go to Russell Robinson who did a stellar defensive job all night. The Jayhawks go on to face the UCLA Bruins on Saturday.
UCLA 64 Pittsburgh 55
This game was as boring as the scoreline looks. The game was a three-possession battle for the majority of the game and whenever Pittsburgh, UCLA had an answer and vice versa. Classic Panther non-execution in big games and Aaron Gray was inconsistent as we hinted in our preview. Levon Kendall was underutilized and struggled when he was. Afflalo is still struggling, but he's nailing everything at the line. Pitt still lacks that go-to guard who they can rely on late in games. On Saturday, UCLA absolutely needs Josh Shipp and Michael Roll to nail jump shots.
Memphis 65 Texas A&M 64
Last Saturday, Texas A&M defeated Louisville in what was considered a road game by many in the know. Last night, Memphis got a win in similar unfriendly circumstances and credit must go to Calipari for motivating his players, because the media - real and fake - have lampooned the Tigers for chalking up easy wins in Conference USA. Douglas-Roberts did not show any signs of being injured and the Tigers at all times knew that they belonged in this game and in the Elite 8. When a 64% free throw shooter knocks two down cold with 3.1 seconds remaining to take a one-point lead, you know this team has a higher calling. On a side note, Acie Law IV was amazing this year and is the only guy who is capable of winning the Naismith Award not named Durant.
Ohio State 85 Tennessee 84
If you're a Vols fan, you're probably on the top of a building right now. Ohio State has almost as many lives as Jack Bauer. Okay, maybe not that many. A 20-point lead is relative. If Tennessee is up 20 on you, you have a chance to come back if you are a very good team. If Southern Illinois is up 20 on you, you're done like Nextel. The Vols' 49-point first half explosion was catalyzed by spectacular outside shooting and getting Oden and Conley Jr. into foul trouble. Nevertheless, Ohio State's team defense, which limited Tennessee to four two-point baskets, got them back into the game almost immediately in the second half. When the day is over, you can't forget about the efforts of OSU's Ron Lewis and Tennessee's Chris Lofton, who seemed to trade three-pointers late in the game. Missed free throws (8-for-17) and potential complacency may be on Bruce Pearl's mind for the next few taxing months.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
...Pay is tackling the West [Chalk Region] and I'll be handling the South Region...
Players to Watch: Tony Young [Southern Illinois] and Sherron Collins [Kansas]
West Region Game #2:
South Region Game #1:
#2. Memphis vs. #3. Texas A&M
-This is going to be a knock-down, drag-out boxing match. It’s going 15 rounds and both teams are going to be left battered, bruised, and beaten. Question is: who survives in the end to advance to the Elite Eight? Sure, I picked A&M…but I also grossly underestimated the outside shooting of the Tigers. Calipari seems due for a Final Four one of these years at Memphis, but I wonder if this team has the poise to match clutch shots and key decisions from the likes of Acie Law IV? Perhaps the best clutch player in the tournament, Law exhibits the self-control and fluidity to dominate games in the closing minutes.
Players to Watch: Antonio Anderson [Memphis] & Dominique Kirk [A&M]
Moment of Truth: How Douglas-Roberts’ ankle reacts to the first break in the game. Will he be able to tape it tight enough to last? I honestly have zero idea. What I do know is that without their star backcourt go-to-guy, it’ll be awfully tough for Memphis to survive this all-out battle.
South Region Game #2:
#1. Ohio State vs. #5. Tennessee
-Most of us remember their past encounter on January 18th (68-66 Buckeye victory in Columbus)…especially Oden’s dominant double-double. Yet, Bruce Pearl’s squad is much more under the radar this year than last (when they seemed to be an easily identifiable overrated #2-seed); yet always seem mortal with their customary slow starts to most games. Chris Lofton, as talented as any player in the country, has to be on…and I mean really on. It’ll take over 50% shooting and at least 20-25 points for the Vols star for his squad to grind it out against the Buckeyes. Memo to the Vols: Don’t let Oden stay in the paint the entire game. It’s imperative he be forced to move around and reach a few times for errant balls, perhaps committing that deadly 4th foul before the 8 to 10 minute mark. As for the Buckeyes, they have to guard the perimeter much tougher than they did against Xavier and must allow Oden to get through the typical early cobwebs and then sit back and ride their star 7-footer into the Elite Eight.
Players to Watch: Ron Lewis [Ohio State] & Dane Bradshaw
[Tennessee]
Moment of Truth: Tennessee needs its role players to step up just as they did against the Cavs down the stretch. Bradshaw, a little too quiet thus far in the tournament, may be exposed on defense by the quicker, athletic Buckeyes. Or so Ohio State thinks. It’ll be interesting to see how Tennessee matches up on D and tries to avoid off-the-dribble screens and slashes.

Can another freshman lead his team to the Final Four?
Step 3 of 4 begins around 10pm tonight for Greg Oden.
Play-by-play is a 50/50 tonight. But either way, enjoy the night's matchups...
Thursday, March 15, 2007
We are now just hours and minutes away from the start of the NCAA Tournament. Clement and Paymon look into Final Four picks, what to expect, what not to expect, and the names who'll make this tournament memorable.
WHAT TO EXPECT -- Clement
Final Four: [East] UNC, [South]
-UNC has the most actual talent in college basketball and has a very experienced coaching staff, headed of course by Roy Williams, who has worked his depth quite well this season. They’ll outlast Durant and truth be told, I don’t buy
-I’ve been ridin’ Acie Law IV all season long. He’s the most clutch player I’ve seen in college basketball this season and I believe the Aggie can control the tempo of the game easily with teams like
-UCLA is the team to beat out West, never leaving the state of
-
National Championship : UNC vs.
-Predictable, I know. Yet I also felt that way two years ago when
Tournament MOP: Al
-While Noah is the poster-boy, Horford is the better talent. He’ll dominate against UCLA again and find himself ending up with 16 and 11 against the Heels. This guy will be picked in the draft right before teammate Noah…and this will show EVERYONE why.
Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11.
-Alright
Upset(s) of the 1st Round: #11. VCU over #6. Duke & #12. Old Dominion over #5. Butler
-Nothing but biased CAA love. ODU bit me two years ago, when
Sleeper/Cinderella: Vanderbilt Commodores [East Region] & UNLV Runnin’ Rebels [
-Vandy’s style of play could have them trailing by fifteen merely fifteen minutes in their opening game. Yet, I view
Impact Player You've Never Heard Of:
-He can drop 25 and all you thought about all game long was Fazekas. It’s imperative to get by Creighton AND to match up well with the athletes of
Coach with the Most on the Line: Tubby Smith,
-Don’t let the AD comment’s fool you, the guy needs a win. Villanova is probably favored and Tubby knows this. He needs the opportunity to stun a #1 as badly as any coach with an underachieving program this year.
Overrated Pick of the Tournament:
-Losses to Bucknell and Bradley aren’t the worst things in the world, but what has Bill Self done in
Underrated Pick of the Tournament: Texas upsetting North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen
-I don’t even know if
WHAT TO EXPECT -- Paymon
Final Four: [East]
- Yes, I’m going against my Tar Heels. Could it be the youth? Could it be playing to the level of their opponents? It could also be that should they make it to the Elite 8, they’ll likely have Hoya Paranoia waiting in the wings. I’m not saying that we’ll see the Hoyas faithful clad in Starter jackets, but they’ll be at
- In the South, is it that I love Acie Law IV a lot or that I remain unimpressed by the Buckeyes? Mind you, they embarrassed a Butch-less
- A lot of
- I’ll let the real media gush over
National Championship :
-
Tournament MOP: Jeff Green,
- Green epitomizes the hard working team that JTIII has developed. He has all the tools necessary for the NBA yet he wasn't even in the Top 150 recruits according to rivals.com. Additionally, he has gotten over his weakness, free throw shooting, making him even more of a go-to guy down the stretch for the Hoyas. His calming presence to the inexperienced guards will not be overlooked by admirers.
Top 1st Round Matchup: #6. Notre Dame vs. #11.
- My prediction is that a lot of 3-point shots will be hoisted. We all know about the stellar three-guard lineups of both teams, but it will be the matchups inside that determine the victor. My bet is on the Kiwi – Craig Bradshaw.
Upset(s) of the 1st Round: Old Dominion over
- Yes, I’m also guilty of the biased CAA love; however, having watched these teams on multiple teams, I know that both can bring it especially when given favorable draws. In ODU’s case, which ODU team will come out? Valdas Vasylius can really have a whale of a game if he asserts himself inside. Watch out for Gerald Lee, who is a star in the making. As for
Sleeper/Cinderella:
- I would say
Impact Player You've Never Heard Of: Tony Young, G,
- Young is a guy that every coach wants on his team -- a physical defender, a solid long distance shooter, and an overall scrapper. If the Salukis end up making noise for the right reasons, Young will play a formidable role.
Coach with the Most on the Line: Bill Self,
- How many more seasons can he go without a long tournament run? If memory serves correct, Self’s longest run was with
Overrated Pick of the Tournament:
- In a way, I’m calling myself out. Think about it though. Who has
Underrated Pick of the Tournament:
-Let’s get one thing straight. The Salukis do not play an attractive style of basketball. However, they play great defense and are tough to beat when Tatum and Falker are on. Strangely enough, many are writing off SIU as they face a stingy Holy Cross capable of the upset and potentially Virginia Tech, who are among the most athletic teams in the field.
Sunday, February 18, 2007
Outside of Selection Sunday, the ESPN BracketBusters weekend is the most important for mid-major programs in terms of exposure to a national audience. Although the competition has become diluted by including a whopping 102 teams, it demonstrated yet again through the 13 televised games that the mid-majors can produce high quality basketball.
Performance by Conference
Big West (3-5): Double digit losses for Long Beach St. and Cal St. Fullerton can't help seeding.
Colonial (5-7): A bit deceiving. 3-1 for the top four teams in the conference. The caboose continues to let down the conference.
Horizon (7-2): Wright St. continues to gain credibility as the potential team who may win the league tournament. Butler's home loss to Southern Illinois may have been more meaningful than all seven wins.
Metro Atlantic (6-4): Nothing of import. Marist, Siena, and Loyola (MD) all win.
Mid-American (6-6): Akron trounces an outmatched Austin Peay team while Toledo falls at home to Old Dominion. If Kent State can learn to value the ball, they could win the league tournament.
Missouri Valley (5-5): So-so performance from the Valley. I expected more from the conference with the RPI of 7. SIU and Bradley took care of business while Creighton and Wichita St. disappointed. Northern Iowa and Missouri St. (to a lesser degree) lost to better teams in Nevada and Winthrop, respectively.
Ohio Valley (3-8): Ugly on all accounts.
Western Athletic (7-2): Another case of being undermatched, but the league took care of business. Utah St. and Hawaii with big road wins while Nevada continues to roll. New Mexico State gets its biggest non-conference win, although it's not enough to make a case for an at-large bid. Overall, their performance begs the question about a second bid allotment.
T-3: Drexel & Bradley: Both teams were not supposed to win, especially if you watched the first 10 minutes of each game. Rebounding at both ends of the floor and never giving up earned these two teams victories crucial to their at-large bid resumes.
5. The WAC: The top seven teams in the conference won their games while the two that didn't carried 7 wins into Saturday ... combined. Expect heavy consideration for a second bid even if Nevada steamrolls through the conference tournament.
Honorable Mention: Appalachian St. defeated a hungry Wichita St. team who is just starting to come around after a disastrous January. DJ Thompson hit 'the shocker' to stun the crowd at Koch. Add that to neutral court victories against Vanderbilt and Virginia, as well as a road victory at VCU.
The Losers
1. VCU: They needed a win against a RPI top-50 opponent. They failed. No excuses.
2. Creighton: The home loss to Drexel appears worse than it actually is because Drexel has played less than stellar basketball in the last two months, falling earlier this week to William & Mary. Bluejays fans will now have nightmares about Frank Elegar for days on end.
T-3. Wichita St. & Missouri St.: Had Wichita pulled this off, I wonder if the media would've hailed this a quality win. Same case with Missouri State. Teams like Winthrop and Appalachian St. often get disrespected by pundits because of ignorance. When the day is done, the conference RPI of 7 is called into question following losses like these.
5. Butler: A win against a quality opponent would have refreshed the minds of fans who saw them win the Preseason NIT. Graves' bout with the flu made matters worse.