NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.1

(Editor’s Note: In the final bracket, I’ll have 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 (overall seed). These projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

At the moment, we have to keep UCLA as a #1 seed. This is not necessarily a projection site. This means that since Florida, North Carolina, Kansas, and Wisconsin have yet to step on the floor for their conference tournament games, they have yet to produce a result; therefore, UCLA is where they are. They’ll likely be on the 1-line but either 3^rd or 4^th overall and playing out west. I’m not in love with how they’re playing.

Thursday was a crazy day. West Virginia and Alabama have a 3-letter future, while Air Force did all in its power to have a similar fate. After a stellar week defeating two of the ACC’s top four on its home floor, Georgia Tech lost a wild one in double overtime to Wake Forest. In fact, Harvey Hale is still hitting 3s as we speak. What kills Georgia Tech and may doom them come Selection Sunday is their 3-10 road/neutral record. Their 8 wins against the RPI top 50 (8-8; tied for 4^th in D-1 for wins) keeps them in for now.

I really hated Maryland’s defeat to Miami and hated it even more that I can only drop them one line seed for now, because everyone else near them also lost games they were not supposed to lose.

Another question that arises as I was seeding the bubble teams: Is the committee aware that Missouri State would have defeated St. Louis, if not for a blown official’s call as time expired? My guess is yes, and that puts over the hump. There’s still a ton of basketball, and it’s my guess that at least one non-tournament team will steal a bid before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box or e-mail me at phashemi@gmail.com.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (1)	West (2)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Southern Illinois	Memphis
4	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt	Maryland
5	Tennessee	Nevada	Marquette	UNLV
6	Kentucky	Louisville	Virginia	Texas
7	Arizona	BYU	Villanova	Duke
8	Notre Dame	Texas Tech	Creighton	Indiana
9	Michigan St.	Boston College	USC	Xavier
10	Georgia Tech	Winthrop	Old Dominion	Virginia Commonwealth
11	Missouri St.	Gonzaga	Davidson	Butler
12	Akron	Syracuse	Florida St.	Arkansas
13	Drexel	Stanford	Wright St.	Holy Cross
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Niagara	Belmont	Delaware St.
16	Eastern Kentucky	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Weber St.

In: Florida St., Wright St., Niagara
Out: Air Force, Purdue, Siena

Seedings
1s: Ohio St., UCLA, Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas A&M
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Oregon
4s: Washington St., Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Maryland
5s: Marquette Tennessee, UNLV, Nevada
6s: Texas, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville
7s: BYU, Arizona, Duke, Villanova
8s: Notre Dame, Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech
9s: Michigan St., Xavier, USC, Boston College
10s: Winthrop, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Virginia Commonwealth
11s: Syracuse, Butler, Gonzaga, Davidson (Due to a seeding conflict, Syracuse and Missouri St. will swap seeds on the bracket)
12s: Missouri St., Florida St., Akron, Arkansas
13s: Drexel, Stanford, Holy Cross, Wright St.
14s: Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach St.
15s: Texas A&M-CC, Belmont, Niagara, Delaware St.
16s: Eastern Kentucky, North Texas, Weber St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Florida St., Arkansas, Drexel, Stanford
Last Four Out: Air Force, Purdue, Georgia, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Kansas St., Mississippi St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 4
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Colonial: 3
Mountain West: 2
Horizon: 2

BracketBusters Fallout

Outside of Selection Sunday, the ESPN BracketBusters weekend is the most important for mid-major programs in terms of exposure to a national audience. Although the competition has become diluted by including a whopping 102 teams, it demonstrated yet again through the 13 televised games that the mid-majors can produce high quality basketball.

Performance by Conference
Big West (3-5): Double digit losses for Long Beach St. and Cal St. Fullerton can't help seeding.
Colonial (5-7): A bit deceiving. 3-1 for the top four teams in the conference. The caboose continues to let down the conference.
Horizon (7-2): Wright St. continues to gain credibility as the potential team who may win the league tournament. Butler's home loss to Southern Illinois may have been more meaningful than all seven wins.
Metro Atlantic (6-4): Nothing of import. Marist, Siena, and Loyola (MD) all win.
Mid-American (6-6): Akron trounces an outmatched Austin Peay team while Toledo falls at home to Old Dominion. If Kent State can learn to value the ball, they could win the league tournament.
Missouri Valley (5-5): So-so performance from the Valley. I expected more from the conference with the RPI of 7. SIU and Bradley took care of business while Creighton and Wichita St. disappointed. Northern Iowa and Missouri St. (to a lesser degree) lost to better teams in Nevada and Winthrop, respectively.
Ohio Valley (3-8): Ugly on all accounts.
Western Athletic (7-2): Another case of being undermatched, but the league took care of business. Utah St. and Hawaii with big road wins while Nevada continues to roll. New Mexico State gets its biggest non-conference win, although it's not enough to make a case for an at-large bid. Overall, their performance begs the question about a second bid allotment.

Big Winners1. Southern Illinois: The Salukis defeated Butler on the Bulldogs' home court, making an even stronger case for a #3 seed.

2. Winthrop: When your RPI suffers as a result of your conference affiliation, the Golden Eagles have to capitalize on every opportunity and capitalize they did.
T-3: Drexel & Bradley: Both teams were not supposed to win, especially if you watched the first 10 minutes of each game. Rebounding at both ends of the floor and never giving up earned these two teams victories crucial to their at-large bid resumes.
5. The WAC: The top seven teams in the conference won their games while the two that didn't carried 7 wins into Saturday ... combined. Expect heavy consideration for a second bid even if Nevada steamrolls through the conference tournament.

Honorable Mention: Appalachian St. defeated a hungry Wichita St. team who is just starting to come around after a disastrous January. DJ Thompson hit 'the shocker' to stun the crowd at Koch. Add that to neutral court victories against Vanderbilt and Virginia, as well as a road victory at VCU.

The Losers
1. VCU: They needed a win against a RPI top-50 opponent. They failed. No excuses.
2. Creighton: The home loss to Drexel appears worse than it actually is because Drexel has played less than stellar basketball in the last two months, falling earlier this week to William & Mary. Bluejays fans will now have nightmares about Frank Elegar for days on end.
T-3. Wichita St. & Missouri St.: Had Wichita pulled this off, I wonder if the media would've hailed this a quality win. Same case with Missouri State. Teams like Winthrop and Appalachian St. often get disrespected by pundits because of ignorance. When the day is done, the conference RPI of 7 is called into question following losses like these.
5. Butler: A win against a quality opponent would have refreshed the minds of fans who saw them win the Preseason NIT. Graves' bout with the flu made matters worse.