NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.1

(Editor’s Note: In the final bracket, I’ll have 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 (overall seed). These projections are based on results ending on Thursday night.)

At the moment, we have to keep UCLA as a #1 seed. This is not necessarily a projection site. This means that since Florida, North Carolina, Kansas, and Wisconsin have yet to step on the floor for their conference tournament games, they have yet to produce a result; therefore, UCLA is where they are. They’ll likely be on the 1-line but either 3^rd or 4^th overall and playing out west. I’m not in love with how they’re playing.

Thursday was a crazy day. West Virginia and Alabama have a 3-letter future, while Air Force did all in its power to have a similar fate. After a stellar week defeating two of the ACC’s top four on its home floor, Georgia Tech lost a wild one in double overtime to Wake Forest. In fact, Harvey Hale is still hitting 3s as we speak. What kills Georgia Tech and may doom them come Selection Sunday is their 3-10 road/neutral record. Their 8 wins against the RPI top 50 (8-8; tied for 4^th in D-1 for wins) keeps them in for now.

I really hated Maryland’s defeat to Miami and hated it even more that I can only drop them one line seed for now, because everyone else near them also lost games they were not supposed to lose.

Another question that arises as I was seeding the bubble teams: Is the committee aware that Missouri State would have defeated St. Louis, if not for a blown official’s call as time expired? My guess is yes, and that puts over the hump. There’s still a ton of basketball, and it’s my guess that at least one non-tournament team will steal a bid before Selection Sunday.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box or e-mail me at phashemi@gmail.com.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (1)	West (2)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Southern Illinois	Memphis
4	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt	Maryland
5	Tennessee	Nevada	Marquette	UNLV
6	Kentucky	Louisville	Virginia	Texas
7	Arizona	BYU	Villanova	Duke
8	Notre Dame	Texas Tech	Creighton	Indiana
9	Michigan St.	Boston College	USC	Xavier
10	Georgia Tech	Winthrop	Old Dominion	Virginia Commonwealth
11	Missouri St.	Gonzaga	Davidson	Butler
12	Akron	Syracuse	Florida St.	Arkansas
13	Drexel	Stanford	Wright St.	Holy Cross
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Niagara	Belmont	Delaware St.
16	Eastern Kentucky	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Weber St.

In: Florida St., Wright St., Niagara
Out: Air Force, Purdue, Siena

Seedings
1s: Ohio St., UCLA, Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Georgetown, Texas A&M
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Oregon
4s: Washington St., Virginia Tech, Vanderbilt, Maryland
5s: Marquette Tennessee, UNLV, Nevada
6s: Texas, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisville
7s: BYU, Arizona, Duke, Villanova
8s: Notre Dame, Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech
9s: Michigan St., Xavier, USC, Boston College
10s: Winthrop, Old Dominion, Georgia Tech, Virginia Commonwealth
11s: Syracuse, Butler, Gonzaga, Davidson (Due to a seeding conflict, Syracuse and Missouri St. will swap seeds on the bracket)
12s: Missouri St., Florida St., Akron, Arkansas
13s: Drexel, Stanford, Holy Cross, Wright St.
14s: Vermont, Oral Roberts, Penn, Long Beach St.
15s: Texas A&M-CC, Belmont, Niagara, Delaware St.
16s: Eastern Kentucky, North Texas, Weber St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Florida St., Arkansas, Drexel, Stanford
Last Four Out: Air Force, Purdue, Georgia, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Kansas St., Mississippi St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 8
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 5
Big Ten: 4
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Colonial: 3
Mountain West: 2
Horizon: 2