News flash! Picking #3 seed Xavier to go to the Elite Eight is NOT an upset or Cinderella story. Neither is picking a 10 over a 7. I’m not even sure the majority of the 6s are that much better than 11s (St. Joe’s is favored on the Vegas line over Oklahoma, for example).
Fear not though…sanctity for your last-second bracket analysis can be found here. We aren’t linking trivial national brackets, aren’t servicing the teams we love (trust me, I’m not!), or promoting picks we’ve had all season. We’re even willing to tackle some of the hardest teams to analyze: Michigan State, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Oregon and Arizona.
Pay and I are offering up a sleeper in each region. We may or may not be picking them outright. However, we’ve locked in on their potential to make deep runs (ala, the second weekend) into March Madness. In the very least, they may pull a 2007 VCU-esque run (shameless plug, I know).
Clement’s Sleepers
East Region
#7 seed Butler
-Wait, didn’t we have them rated as a #5 seed, thus no sleeper? While the committee obviously couldn’t find the wins to place the Bulldogs where we might have speculated, they’re a lethal #7 seed. Sweet Sixteen visitors last season, they return with the same five starters, and now, a chip on their shoulder. Unfortunately, USA (i.e. South Alabama) is a brutal #10 seed (in Birmingham, no less); however, if they can survive the lethal 7-10 matchup, Butler has enough athleticism and outside shooting to keep up with #2 seed Tennessee. Past that, the Bulldogs will be playing with company money and the passion to be the next Gonzaga/Kent State into the Elite Eight.
Midwest Region
#10 seed Davidson
-I could rant and rave about how they almost beat North Carolina early in the season, but then I’d be the national media. Instead, I’ll plug what really matters: Davidson finished 23-0 in the Southern Conference, played UNC/UCLA/Duke to closer-than-expected outcomes, and are home to the son of Virginia Tech’s most renowned basketball alum, Dell Curry: Stephen Curry. Gonzaga, meanwhile, will be traveling all the way from Spokane, Washington to a gym that is a stone’s throw from Davidson’s campus (well, maybe two throws). Look out in the Midwest, Davidson is also loving the NC locations.
South Region
#8 seed Mississippi State
-The majority of America has either the #1 seeds all in the Elite Eight or all in the Final Four (note: the latter has NEVER happened). If you’re looking for a legit #8/#9 upset of a #1, Memphis is your best bet. They’re nightmarish from the free-throw line, fall in love way too quickly with the three and have been shown in tournament’s past that they can run with anyone. But, can they bang and grind it out with anyone? Enter the Bulldogs, classic underachievers in the SEC Tournament (who wasn’t outside of Georgia though?), who possess everything needed to knock off the Tigers: a star player with a chip on his shoulder (Jamont Gordon), solid interior rebounding, and a coach in Rick Stansbury that is on the rise. While Memphis could run them out of the gym before the under-8 timeout in the first half, the Bulldogs might bust open a few brackets…except yours.
West Region
#12 seed Western Kentucky
-Could I honestly have a column about upsets WITHOUT mentioning a #12 seed? The answer is: no. While I personally see big things potentially for “The Drake”, the Hilltoppers (the automatic qualifier out of the Sun Belt) and NBA-ready star Courtney Lee have a tournament pedigree in their past and the ability to win the big game. Their #5 seed opponent, Drake, has a TON to prove and their #4 seed and likely opponent in Round 2 (should they progress), UConn, is extremely unpredictable in my opinion. Need something else to sway you? They’ve won 17 of 18, including that aforementioned Sun Belt Tournament. Sign me up…maybe.
Pay’s taking over later in the day…
Pay's Sleepers
East Region
None
- Because Indiana cannot truly hold "sleeper" status since they were ranked all season and were regularly in the public eye, I am going with no sleepers. No Mason? No Winthrop? Nope. Both are established mid-majors and absolutely no one is sleeping on them. South Alabama? Considering they play in Birmingham for their first games (where's Jim Calhoun to raise a stink?) and three SEC teams in close games, no one is sleeping on the Jaguars either. St. Joe's? Nope.
Midwest Region
# 8 seed UNLV
- Though I am picking Kent State to defeat UNLV, the Runnin' Rebels have drawn ire for receiving an undeserved #8 seed (best win: BYU twice at home) and that's just enough for UNLV, who were expected to have a rebuilding year, but have a Final Four coach in Lon Kruger and outstanding ball handlers in Curtis Terry and Wink Adams. Run-on sentences aside, teams that can handle the ball effectively have a puncher's chance against the Jayhawks.
South Region
#7 seed Miami-FL
- Considered Clement's team most likely not to make it out of the first round, the 'Canes ended the season on a sour note. Picked to go 12th in the ACC, Miami is paced by guards Jack McClinton and James Dews, yet have the bench to go 10-deep. With the sheer number of bodies who can contribute, Miami, depending on which team comes to the game, has the juice to defeat elite teams (defeated Duke in February). Once again, the factor of being largely overlooked by the national media and other coaches weighs heavily in Miami's favor. That said, St. Mary's is one tough customer with a balanced attack.
West Region
#6 seed Purdue
- Last season, Purdue surprised many by not only being competitive, but earning an at-large bid and making the Round of 32 prior to bowing out against eventual champions, Florida. This season, Purdue have exceeded expectations with a talented, young core of players that have alternated between brilliance and mediocrity. With athleticism, leadership and depth, the Boilermakers have the tools to overcome Baylor, Xavier and even Duke. If they do this, then people other than Brent Musburger will never forget who Robbie Hummel is.
Showing posts with label Butler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Butler. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Monday, March 17, 2008
Four Games We Love
Four Games I Love - Clement Edition
Pay is going to take over the reigns with his own four matchups in an evening post.
Xavier is on tons of media "hot-lists" as a Final Four sleeper.
Question is: are the healthy enough???
Credit: MP3.com
Here we go…
East Region
#7. Butler vs. #10. South Alabama
-It’s only fair to let Pay have Mason vs. Notre Dame. Fortunately, I have tons of interest in this mid-major battle between the WCC’s Zags and the Sun Belt’s Jags. Both teams have strong depth, playmakers at multiple positions and a TON to prove. Even more interesting is that South Alabama wound up in a pod being played in Birmingham (yes, Alabama).
Midwest Region
#6. USC vs. #11. Kansas State
-Mayo v. Beasley. Need I say more? Honestly, I don’t.
South Region
#5. Michigan State vs. #12. Temple
-Nicknamed Team Schizophrenia by several media outlets, Michigan State may be the most difficult team to read in this entire bracket. In years past, they’ve proved doubters wrong, and rode momentum and great coaching to the Final Four (2005 rings a bell). Other years, they’ve folded out early to seemingly lesser competition (2006 rang a bell, at first). Enter the A-10 Tourney champs and this might be the 5/12 matchup that several people are eyeing intently.
West Region
#3. Xavier vs. #14. Georgia
-Everyone is jocking the Musketeers as their "sleeper" team. Yeah, as if a #3 seed is a real sleeper. Nevertheless, if Drew Lavender is healthy, I like Xavier to make a real run in this tournament. The problem is: he isn’t. Suddenly, you enter in that pod the remarkable SEC Tourney Champion Georgia Bulldogs (rest!), the last announced team (Baylor) and another schizophrenic Big Ten team (Purdue). Call me crazy, but Xavier is just as likely to make a legit Elite Eight run as they are to not survive the opening weekend.
Pay will check in shortly with his four...
Four Games I Love - Paymon Edition
East Region
#5 Notre Dame vs. #12 George Mason
- Thanks for letting me tackle the alma mater's battle versus "Da-da-da-da-da ol' Notre Dame". That was for Sum. Since Notre Dame has been consistent this season (great on offense, average on defense), this matchup will come down to how Mason plays defense. Why? That's because Mason will have to stick with what worked in Richmond, and cover the perimeter (ND averages 8.5 made threes per game and shoots 41% from behind the arc). These teams are very similar statistically despite the Irish holding a distinct height advantage, though the Irish are a better perimeter shooting squad. The battle between Will Thomas and Luke Harangody will be intriguing. All of this said, guard play wins this one.
Midwest Region
#8 UNLV vs. #9 Kent State
- The real media will provide you every detail possible on Gonzaga and Davidson (did you know the game was in Raleigh and that Gonzaga may be jet-lagged???). It's like that team has never traveled before. Moving onto this game, if UNLV wins, it will be because of ball security (+4.3 turnover margin and averaging only 10 TOs per contest). Keeping the ball won't be easy, as the Golden Flashes force in excess of 16 turnovers per game. On the opposite of the ball, Haminn Quaintance's long frame presents matchup problems and disrupt the free-flowing Runnin' Rebels. Once again, all eyes are on the guards -- more specifically, Wink Adams versus Al Fisher.
South Region
#6 Marquette vs. #11 Kentucky
- Without a doubt, this is my least favorite region. I hope Billy Gillispie and his assistants have surrounded Rupp Arena with the newspaper and web clippings clamoring over Kentucky's inclusion in the tournament field. For those just joining us, this tournament is about guard play and the last time I checked, Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford were awfully good seniors. Of course, they must be on their 'A' game if they want to progress past the backcourt trio of Jerel McNeal (73 steals), Dominic James (60 steals) and Wesley Matthews, all of whom average double figures in scoring.
West Region
#5 Drake vs. #12 Western Kentucky
- You gotta love it when the tournament selection committee pits one mid-major against another. I don't. According to some experts, Drake is considered the best shooting team in the field. Led by Missouri Valley Conference POY Adam Emmenecker, Drake has four double-digit average scorers (of which Emmenecker is not one) who made at least 40 three-pointers. The latent facts are that "The Drake" has underrated athleticism and has a penchant for playing stiff defense (opponents averaging less than 61 ppg). As for the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, Courtney Lee (20.4 ppg in 29.4 mpg!) is the man; however, WKU has ten players who average more than ten minutes of action per game. In its two losses to South Alabama, the Hilltoppers were held to 28.6 and 22.7 percent three-point shooting. Drake knows what it needs to accomplish.
Pay is going to take over the reigns with his own four matchups in an evening post.
Xavier is on tons of media "hot-lists" as a Final Four sleeper.Question is: are the healthy enough???
Credit: MP3.com
Here we go…
East Region
#7. Butler vs. #10. South Alabama
-It’s only fair to let Pay have Mason vs. Notre Dame. Fortunately, I have tons of interest in this mid-major battle between the WCC’s Zags and the Sun Belt’s Jags. Both teams have strong depth, playmakers at multiple positions and a TON to prove. Even more interesting is that South Alabama wound up in a pod being played in Birmingham (yes, Alabama).
Midwest Region
#6. USC vs. #11. Kansas State
-Mayo v. Beasley. Need I say more? Honestly, I don’t.
South Region
#5. Michigan State vs. #12. Temple
-Nicknamed Team Schizophrenia by several media outlets, Michigan State may be the most difficult team to read in this entire bracket. In years past, they’ve proved doubters wrong, and rode momentum and great coaching to the Final Four (2005 rings a bell). Other years, they’ve folded out early to seemingly lesser competition (2006 rang a bell, at first). Enter the A-10 Tourney champs and this might be the 5/12 matchup that several people are eyeing intently.
West Region
#3. Xavier vs. #14. Georgia
-Everyone is jocking the Musketeers as their "sleeper" team. Yeah, as if a #3 seed is a real sleeper. Nevertheless, if Drew Lavender is healthy, I like Xavier to make a real run in this tournament. The problem is: he isn’t. Suddenly, you enter in that pod the remarkable SEC Tourney Champion Georgia Bulldogs (rest!), the last announced team (Baylor) and another schizophrenic Big Ten team (Purdue). Call me crazy, but Xavier is just as likely to make a legit Elite Eight run as they are to not survive the opening weekend.
Pay will check in shortly with his four...
Four Games I Love - Paymon Edition
East Region
#5 Notre Dame vs. #12 George Mason
- Thanks for letting me tackle the alma mater's battle versus "Da-da-da-da-da ol' Notre Dame". That was for Sum. Since Notre Dame has been consistent this season (great on offense, average on defense), this matchup will come down to how Mason plays defense. Why? That's because Mason will have to stick with what worked in Richmond, and cover the perimeter (ND averages 8.5 made threes per game and shoots 41% from behind the arc). These teams are very similar statistically despite the Irish holding a distinct height advantage, though the Irish are a better perimeter shooting squad. The battle between Will Thomas and Luke Harangody will be intriguing. All of this said, guard play wins this one.
Midwest Region
#8 UNLV vs. #9 Kent State
- The real media will provide you every detail possible on Gonzaga and Davidson (did you know the game was in Raleigh and that Gonzaga may be jet-lagged???). It's like that team has never traveled before. Moving onto this game, if UNLV wins, it will be because of ball security (+4.3 turnover margin and averaging only 10 TOs per contest). Keeping the ball won't be easy, as the Golden Flashes force in excess of 16 turnovers per game. On the opposite of the ball, Haminn Quaintance's long frame presents matchup problems and disrupt the free-flowing Runnin' Rebels. Once again, all eyes are on the guards -- more specifically, Wink Adams versus Al Fisher.
South Region
#6 Marquette vs. #11 Kentucky
- Without a doubt, this is my least favorite region. I hope Billy Gillispie and his assistants have surrounded Rupp Arena with the newspaper and web clippings clamoring over Kentucky's inclusion in the tournament field. For those just joining us, this tournament is about guard play and the last time I checked, Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford were awfully good seniors. Of course, they must be on their 'A' game if they want to progress past the backcourt trio of Jerel McNeal (73 steals), Dominic James (60 steals) and Wesley Matthews, all of whom average double figures in scoring.
West Region
#5 Drake vs. #12 Western Kentucky
- You gotta love it when the tournament selection committee pits one mid-major against another. I don't. According to some experts, Drake is considered the best shooting team in the field. Led by Missouri Valley Conference POY Adam Emmenecker, Drake has four double-digit average scorers (of which Emmenecker is not one) who made at least 40 three-pointers. The latent facts are that "The Drake" has underrated athleticism and has a penchant for playing stiff defense (opponents averaging less than 61 ppg). As for the Hilltoppers of Western Kentucky, Courtney Lee (20.4 ppg in 29.4 mpg!) is the man; however, WKU has ten players who average more than ten minutes of action per game. In its two losses to South Alabama, the Hilltoppers were held to 28.6 and 22.7 percent three-point shooting. Drake knows what it needs to accomplish.
Saturday, January 05, 2008
Saturday’s College Basketball Musings
Exactly like the title indicates, these thoughts are unsystematic …
Kansas is awfully good. I still think they’re still a player thin in the frontcourt, but having Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun as your only bigs is a major positive. Mario Chalmers may be the nation's best defensive player. PERIOD.
Butler is doing everything to legitimize the 4-seed I gave them in the pre-season projections. We all knew the backcourt tandem of Green and Graves (yes, in that order) would be dominant, but freshman Matt Howard has made some forget about the losses of Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oregon has done nothing but disappoint. Mark January 5 as a possible turning point. Though Arizona was without do-everything guard Jerryd Bayless, the Ducks were unstoppable from behind the arc (10 for 22). Consider this a step back for the Wildcats who have shown marked improvement on the defensive end with Kevin O’Neill at the helm.
Despite improving to 10-3, NC State has driven me nuts. Sure, you lost your point guard for the year to a brutal injury. To have Presbyterian (1-18) sniffing at your heels for about 39 minutes is insulting to a program that has NCAA tournament aspirations. This can’t be too encouraging with the ACC schedule right around the corner.
If Vanderbilt continues to play with this level of fervor and resolve all season, you can just give National Coach of the Year honors to Kevin Stallings. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars (17.0 ppg) and Dan Cage (11.2 ppg), they were an afterthought. Someone forgot to send that memo to Stallings and company.
Kentucky sucks. No analysis needed. Youth or not, these results are unacceptable given the talent in place. Imagine if Tubby was 6-7. It would have never gotten that far.
Here’s a scary statistic: the SEC is the 8th-rated conference according to the RPI. Entering today’s play, only five SEC teams are rated in the top 100. Does this mean that the SEC, if this ranking holds, will have no more than three representatives dancing in March? If the ranking holds and justice is served, then that answer will be an emphatic “YES!”
Kansas is awfully good. I still think they’re still a player thin in the frontcourt, but having Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun as your only bigs is a major positive. Mario Chalmers may be the nation's best defensive player. PERIOD.
Butler is doing everything to legitimize the 4-seed I gave them in the pre-season projections. We all knew the backcourt tandem of Green and Graves (yes, in that order) would be dominant, but freshman Matt Howard has made some forget about the losses of Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oregon has done nothing but disappoint. Mark January 5 as a possible turning point. Though Arizona was without do-everything guard Jerryd Bayless, the Ducks were unstoppable from behind the arc (10 for 22). Consider this a step back for the Wildcats who have shown marked improvement on the defensive end with Kevin O’Neill at the helm.
Despite improving to 10-3, NC State has driven me nuts. Sure, you lost your point guard for the year to a brutal injury. To have Presbyterian (1-18) sniffing at your heels for about 39 minutes is insulting to a program that has NCAA tournament aspirations. This can’t be too encouraging with the ACC schedule right around the corner.
If Vanderbilt continues to play with this level of fervor and resolve all season, you can just give National Coach of the Year honors to Kevin Stallings. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars (17.0 ppg) and Dan Cage (11.2 ppg), they were an afterthought. Someone forgot to send that memo to Stallings and company.
Kentucky sucks. No analysis needed. Youth or not, these results are unacceptable given the talent in place. Imagine if Tubby was 6-7. It would have never gotten that far.
Here’s a scary statistic: the SEC is the 8th-rated conference according to the RPI. Entering today’s play, only five SEC teams are rated in the top 100. Does this mean that the SEC, if this ranking holds, will have no more than three representatives dancing in March? If the ranking holds and justice is served, then that answer will be an emphatic “YES!”
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Thursday's Headlines - Spot On
* Late last night, Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart received permission from the University of Florida to speak with Billy Donovan about their coaching vacancy. Donovan is scheduled to meet with Florida AD Jeremy Foley today and then plans to vacation in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPN's Andy Katz. ESPN and CBS Sportsline (no, they aren't the only two sports websites I visit) are now reporting that Billy Donovan is staying put and that he will be in talks for an extension at Florida. Now, was I right or was I right? How many hours will it be until we hear about Rick Barnes or Billy Gillispie being asked if they're interested?
This Donovan decision should have little to no bearing on the decisions to be made by Horford, Noah, Brewer, and Green.
* West Virginia is hot on the heels of Kansas State head coach Bob Huggins, who calls the state home and played for the Mountaineers during the mid-1970s. In the eyes of many, Huggins accepting the job is contingent upon whether he will be able to take top recruit Michael Beasley with him.
* Butler has its new coach. Brad Stevens, 30, served as an assistant at Butler for six years under Todd Lickliter and Thad Matta. The Bulldogs return three of its top scorers (AJ Graves, Mike Green, and Pete Campbell) from the squad that made the Sweet 16 and gave eventual national champion Florida its stiffest test.
* Louis Orr is back in the head coaching ranks at Bowling Green. This is the guy who took a worthless Seton Hall team last season to the tournament, albeit in controversial fashion with a very low RPI and 40+ point losses, and proceeded to get whooped by Wichita State. As a reward for his efforts, he got canned.
On the PHSports Docket
* NFL Mock Draft
* NCAA basketball coaching carousel
* NBA Draft early entries
* Late last night, Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart received permission from the University of Florida to speak with Billy Donovan about their coaching vacancy. Donovan is scheduled to meet with Florida AD Jeremy Foley today and then plans to vacation in the Dominican Republic, according to ESPN's Andy Katz. ESPN and CBS Sportsline (no, they aren't the only two sports websites I visit) are now reporting that Billy Donovan is staying put and that he will be in talks for an extension at Florida. Now, was I right or was I right? How many hours will it be until we hear about Rick Barnes or Billy Gillispie being asked if they're interested?
This Donovan decision should have little to no bearing on the decisions to be made by Horford, Noah, Brewer, and Green.
* West Virginia is hot on the heels of Kansas State head coach Bob Huggins, who calls the state home and played for the Mountaineers during the mid-1970s. In the eyes of many, Huggins accepting the job is contingent upon whether he will be able to take top recruit Michael Beasley with him.
* Butler has its new coach. Brad Stevens, 30, served as an assistant at Butler for six years under Todd Lickliter and Thad Matta. The Bulldogs return three of its top scorers (AJ Graves, Mike Green, and Pete Campbell) from the squad that made the Sweet 16 and gave eventual national champion Florida its stiffest test.
* Louis Orr is back in the head coaching ranks at Bowling Green. This is the guy who took a worthless Seton Hall team last season to the tournament, albeit in controversial fashion with a very low RPI and 40+ point losses, and proceeded to get whooped by Wichita State. As a reward for his efforts, he got canned.
On the PHSports Docket
* NFL Mock Draft
* NCAA basketball coaching carousel
* NBA Draft early entries
Friday, March 23, 2007
Friday Night Tournament Previews
Last night, the chalk held and I remain disgusted by Tennessee's inability to put away Ohio State. Tonight, we might be in store for the same, which is good for college basketball's elite as well as the ratings for the Elite 8 games.
Clement and I are splitting up the regions. He's got Georgetown/Vanderbilt and Oregon/UNLV and I've got the two #1 seeds versus the upstart #5 seeds.
East Region Game #1
#2. Georgetown vs. #6. Vanderbilt
It's tough to pick directly against your Cinderella, but I expect the Hoyas to dictate every piece of this game on Friday. While Hibbert often seems entrenched in granite, he has looked smooth enough thus far, alongside Jeff Green (who always seems to play well when it matters most). The key may be role players like Sapp, Ewing Jr., and Summers if the Hoyas plan to take the wind out of the sails of the Commodores. Speaking of which, don't underestimate what it took to take down Washington State in double overtime. Often the hardest part of advancing deep into the tournament are those difficult early games. Derrick Byars is an insane talent who demands the ball when it matters (which coaches always love). While Vandy has a lot going against them, the SEC has upset the Big East before in similar surprising fashion (ala Alabama over the Orange in 2004).
Players to Watch: Patrick Ewing Jr. [Georgetown] & Shan Foster [Vanderbilt]
Moment of Truth: If Vandy falls down 6 or 8 within a few minutes, will they attempt to shoot the gym out with poorly-placed threes…or work the ball through the Georgetown defense and take smartly-placed threes? We shall see.
East Region Game #2
#1. North Carolina vs. #5. USC
When analyzing this game, one question immediately comes to mind. Okay, about three. Does USC have enough bodies to compete with North Carolina for the last 10 minutes of the game? Can USC get a repeat performance of Sunday from both Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett? Did Lodrick Stewart really have a root canal on Tuesday or are they just trying to soften up the Heels? One thing Tim Floyd can exploit is the relative weakness of Carolina's swingmen. Nick Young is a stud. Ellington is young and Reyshawn Terry is struggling with potential strep. Gabe Pruitt and Ty Lawson are expected to entertain.
Players to Watch: Daniel Hackett [USC] & Reyshawn Terry [North Carolina]
Moment of Truth: If Carolina is down late, who will be the player to step up alongside Tyler Hansbrough? How will Tim Floyd counteract the depth of Carolina, especially in the frontcourt?
Midwest Region Game #1
#1. Florida vs. #5. Butler
Another contrast in styles in store for this game, but not to the extent of Kansas and Southern Illinois last night. The Gators score 80 per game while the Bulldogs only give up 57, so expect Butler's ball-handlers to slow this game down. If Butler wins this game, it will be because of their ball security courtesy of Graves and Green, their ability to get to the free throw line, and of course, the trifecta. The annoyance factor must come into play as well for Butler. Florida has to be good for 30-35 minutes to be certain of victory and be resolute in their decision making. They must also take advantage of the hefty size disparity between the national champion and the mid-major. If Taurean Green can hold his own and find Humphrey, then Florida should be playing on Sunday against the Oregon/UNLV winner.
Players to Watch: Taurean Green [Florida] and Pete Campbell [Butler]
Moment of Truth: Butler's poise and ability to make open shots will determine whether this one will be decided in the final 5 minutes. If such is the case, chalk may finally not hold.
Midwest Region Game #2
#3. Oregon vs. #7. UNLV
An underrated game to say the least…in fact it's the one I'm dying to see. You might snicker, but the coaches are talented [Kent & Kruger] and the teams are filled with talented player who are fun to watch [i.e. Tajuan Porter & Kevin Kruger]. Both teams have been a little fortunate to face sub-par shooting [especially UNLV], yet both teams capitalize on opponent's mistakes and have performed well when their leads appear to be shrinking to nothing. In fact, it's this back-and-forth style which makes this game so intriguing. It could definitely be worth of an overtime session…or two.
Players to Watch: Wendell White [UNLV] & Bryce Taylor [Oregon]
Moment of Truth: UNLV has been a team of spurts, runs, and often droughts this season. Oregon could be the hottest team in the country right now. So in essence, UNLV needs to start well during the first 4-6 minutes. I'm not saying they need to be up 12, but they better not be down 12.
Clement and I are splitting up the regions. He's got Georgetown/Vanderbilt and Oregon/UNLV and I've got the two #1 seeds versus the upstart #5 seeds.
East Region Game #1
#2. Georgetown vs. #6. Vanderbilt
It's tough to pick directly against your Cinderella, but I expect the Hoyas to dictate every piece of this game on Friday. While Hibbert often seems entrenched in granite, he has looked smooth enough thus far, alongside Jeff Green (who always seems to play well when it matters most). The key may be role players like Sapp, Ewing Jr., and Summers if the Hoyas plan to take the wind out of the sails of the Commodores. Speaking of which, don't underestimate what it took to take down Washington State in double overtime. Often the hardest part of advancing deep into the tournament are those difficult early games. Derrick Byars is an insane talent who demands the ball when it matters (which coaches always love). While Vandy has a lot going against them, the SEC has upset the Big East before in similar surprising fashion (ala Alabama over the Orange in 2004).
Players to Watch: Patrick Ewing Jr. [Georgetown] & Shan Foster [Vanderbilt]
Moment of Truth: If Vandy falls down 6 or 8 within a few minutes, will they attempt to shoot the gym out with poorly-placed threes…or work the ball through the Georgetown defense and take smartly-placed threes? We shall see.
East Region Game #2
#1. North Carolina vs. #5. USC
When analyzing this game, one question immediately comes to mind. Okay, about three. Does USC have enough bodies to compete with North Carolina for the last 10 minutes of the game? Can USC get a repeat performance of Sunday from both Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett? Did Lodrick Stewart really have a root canal on Tuesday or are they just trying to soften up the Heels? One thing Tim Floyd can exploit is the relative weakness of Carolina's swingmen. Nick Young is a stud. Ellington is young and Reyshawn Terry is struggling with potential strep. Gabe Pruitt and Ty Lawson are expected to entertain.
Players to Watch: Daniel Hackett [USC] & Reyshawn Terry [North Carolina]
Moment of Truth: If Carolina is down late, who will be the player to step up alongside Tyler Hansbrough? How will Tim Floyd counteract the depth of Carolina, especially in the frontcourt?
Midwest Region Game #1
#1. Florida vs. #5. Butler
Another contrast in styles in store for this game, but not to the extent of Kansas and Southern Illinois last night. The Gators score 80 per game while the Bulldogs only give up 57, so expect Butler's ball-handlers to slow this game down. If Butler wins this game, it will be because of their ball security courtesy of Graves and Green, their ability to get to the free throw line, and of course, the trifecta. The annoyance factor must come into play as well for Butler. Florida has to be good for 30-35 minutes to be certain of victory and be resolute in their decision making. They must also take advantage of the hefty size disparity between the national champion and the mid-major. If Taurean Green can hold his own and find Humphrey, then Florida should be playing on Sunday against the Oregon/UNLV winner.
Players to Watch: Taurean Green [Florida] and Pete Campbell [Butler]
Moment of Truth: Butler's poise and ability to make open shots will determine whether this one will be decided in the final 5 minutes. If such is the case, chalk may finally not hold.
Midwest Region Game #2
#3. Oregon vs. #7. UNLV
An underrated game to say the least…in fact it's the one I'm dying to see. You might snicker, but the coaches are talented [Kent & Kruger] and the teams are filled with talented player who are fun to watch [i.e. Tajuan Porter & Kevin Kruger]. Both teams have been a little fortunate to face sub-par shooting [especially UNLV], yet both teams capitalize on opponent's mistakes and have performed well when their leads appear to be shrinking to nothing. In fact, it's this back-and-forth style which makes this game so intriguing. It could definitely be worth of an overtime session…or two.
Players to Watch: Wendell White [UNLV] & Bryce Taylor [Oregon]
Moment of Truth: UNLV has been a team of spurts, runs, and often droughts this season. Oregon could be the hottest team in the country right now. So in essence, UNLV needs to start well during the first 4-6 minutes. I'm not saying they need to be up 12, but they better not be down 12.
Monday, March 19, 2007
The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone, and unless you had
The only major upset of the weekend was UNLV eliminating
There is no perfect way to gauge conference performance, but what we can do is look at expected and actual numbers from the multi-bid conferences. For the record, it’s not completely scientific, but it does work with the seeds designated by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
| Conference | Actual Record | Expected Record | Actual vs. Expected Difference | Actual Sweet 16 teams | Expected Sweet 16 teams | Sweet 16 Difference |
| ACC | 6-6 | 9-4 | -2.5 | 1 | 3 | -2 |
| SEC | 7-2 | 5-4 | +2.0 | 3 | 1 | +2 |
| Pac-10 | 7-3 | 8-3 | -0.5 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Big Ten | 6-5 | 5-4 | 0* | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Big East | 5-4 | 7-4 | -1.0 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| | 2-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Big XII | 5-2 | 6-1 | -1.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| Mountain West | 2-1 | 2-2 | +0.5 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Western Athletic | 1-2 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Atlantic-10 | 1-2 | 0-2 | +0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Horizon | 2-1 | 1-2 | +1.0 | 1 | 0 | +1 |
| Colonial | 1-2 | 0-2 | +0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
* lower winning percentage for actual record
When staring at these statistics, a few things jump out.
- First, the ACC has done the worst job of “holding” seeds in this tournament. In three games, a member school has lost to a lower seed. In
- Second, the SEC (the SEC East, in particular) has been stellar. In my opinion,
- Third, … so the Big Ten wasn’t as bad as I thought they were. I stand by my somewhat inflammatory (yet factually based) comments about
- Fourth, the end game for the Big East is what we expected after the first weekend –
- Lastly, I, for one, thought a few of the seedings were shrouded in subjectivity. Of course, I can talk for hours about Virginia, who actually played some quality basketball in the tournament - unlike the two weeks leading up to the NCAAs. There’s also UNLV, who we projected as a 4-seed (actual: 7-seed), and then *stunned*
One thing we do know is that, despite the chatter – mainly by ESPN guys who have more airtime than substantive material to fill it with - there was no George Mason this year. USC (5),
Thursday, March 15, 2007
Thursday Game Previews
We are just an hour and a half from the start of the first games of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Today, we look at five games on our radar that should be on yours as well.
At day's end, the tournament field will have shrunk from 64 to 48 and sixteen dreams will have ended with others looking forward to fulfillment on Saturday. Without further ado, here are today's previews.
We are just an hour and a half from the start of the first games of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Today, we look at five games on our radar that should be on yours as well.
At day's end, the tournament field will have shrunk from 64 to 48 and sixteen dreams will have ended with others looking forward to fulfillment on Saturday. Without further ado, here are today's previews.
#5.
- The question for me is, “Which ODU team will come out?” If it’s the team that won 12 in a row leading up to the CAA Tournament, Vasylius, Williamson, and the boys will be too much to handle for Miss November.
Deciding Factor: ODU’s ability to cause turnovers and get Dahi back on track.
#6. Duke vs. #11. VCU [7:10 pm] West Region
- Likely to get a ton of deserving national attention, VCU has a golden opportunity to try and really test this underachieve Duke squad. Yet, don’t let the Blue Devils fool you…they’re still loaded with talent. VCU will have to shoot 40% or better from the three-point line and their three bigs (Anderson, Fameni, and Roland) must stay out of serious foul trouble.
Deciding Factor: Duke’s ability, or inability, to handle the VCU press.
#8.
- The game to get UNC. Never underestimate Tom Izzo (23-8 record in the NCAA Tournament), despite how youthful this team is this season. Dominic James and Drew Neitzel are a pair of dynamic backcourt players who should be seen by anyone with a television set. Important to note,
Deciding Factor: The sprained thumb of
#8. BYU vs. #9. Xavier [9:30 pm] South Region
- I have to admit, I’ve seen these teams play a combined four times this season. In that short time, I realize that the 3-ball will be hoisted early and often. Both teams shoot above 37% as a team from behind the arc and run very fluid offenses. The teams are absolutely even when it comes down to the major categories. It will be a battle of wills between Keena Young and Stanley Burrell.
Deciding Factor: Lavender’s ability to exploit the BYU guards on both sides of the ball and bench play.
#7.
- Two things jump out to me.
Deciding Factor: Pargo vs. Wilmont.
Sunday, March 11, 2007
Responses to Selection Sunday
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi
Bracket Projection Results
TEAMS SELECTED: 63/65 (32/34 at-large)
PREDICTED WITHIN ONE LINE: 49/65
EXACT SEEDS PREDICTED: 27/65
At this time last year, I was not a member of the blogosphere, but I did predict 62 of 65 teams correctly. After last year’s committee focused on conference allocation, I still went with my better judgment rather than unconventional idiocy. I’ll take solace in picking Syracuse and Drexel over the two Big Ten strugglers, Purdue and Illinois.
****
Big Ten love?
When the committee says that it doesn’t look at last year’s results, it’s true when it comes to the Big Ten. If you recall, the Big Ten didn’t even make it out of the first weekend last year. It would be ignorant to suggest that a conference representative won’t make it out of the first weekend, but frankly, the Big Ten was not that good this season.
Sure,
****
Egregious Seeding Errors
To be honest, this is where the tournament committee really messed up with this bracket. Neither of us work for CBS, ESPN, or any of the networks who might feel they need to show some allegiance towards the selectors. Instead, we're calling them out, specifically the vague Gary Walters (who interviewed terribly on ESPN), for a variety of reasons. Point number of my complaints with this bracket: egregious seeds. We realize they have to protect certain regions and certain potential matchups, but some of the seedings had no excuse. We’ve already pointed out
1)
This is a talented team, especially the backcourt duo, that clearly got boosted up 2 or 3 seeds. Sure, they took out Virginia Tech and won a share of the regular-season ACC title. But look at these losses down the stretch (@Miami, @Wake Forest
2)
Obviously, this seed was a reward for the Preseason NIT, which was almost 6 months ago. They shared the Horizon regular-season title with Wright State Butler
3) UNLV as a 7-seed
Yes, the Mountain West Conference has struggled in the Big Dance since its formation (5-21). However, the Runnin’ Rebels had an impressive RPI (10th) and won 11 of their last 13 (with losses against San Diego St.
4) Purdue as a 9-seed
What a surprise! Another Big Ten team getting far too much pub for “good losses”. Their RPI (45) is far from attractive as a 9-seed. If you want to talk about good wins out of conference (Virginia and who else?), then you better discuss the bad ones in-and-out (@Indiana State , @Minnesota, @Michigan
****
An Overall Poor Job By The Committee
Why did
Why did Old Dominion deserve to be in and Drexel be out from the CAA? Why was the CAA given less respect than the A-10 and Horizon League?
Why was
Why were only 6 at-large births given to mid-majors after only 8 last year?
Why doesn’t the tournament committee watch the Sunday games in detail?
Was
How much will the tournament miss guys like Al Thornton, Cartier Martin, Demetrius Nichols, Frank Elegar, and Mario Boggans (didn’t deserve to be, but an amazing talent)?
****
Clement’s Overall Thoughts
I’m not gonna lie, I’m heartbroken that
The real travesty (wow, I’m agreeing with Dick Vitale) had to be Drexel who had strong wins (wins @Syracuse, @Villanova, and @Creighton in a BracketBusters game) that outweighed the bad losses (@Penn, @Rider, @William & Mary). Yet, they were criticized for conference play – a double standard when thinking of
Staying with the talking heads, Jay Bilas made a major mistake during Bracketology tonight. Losses to VCU and ODU (even a sweep) are not bad losses for Drexel, since both teams are in and deserved to be in the tournament. An ever bigger error was from Doug Gottlieb, who is ten times better on radio than on TV. He claimed Air Force was snubbed. All they had to do was win one of their last four games and they folded.
In the end, I’ll ride my VCU Rams as long as they can go and enjoy the tournament as much as I can. Even with the obvious insight that ‘Cuse & Drexel would’ve struggled in tough first-round matchups, I still hate the fact I’ll spend the majority of this tournament rooting against people rather than rooting for them.
Message to Coach Boeheim: Please schedule tougher matchups out of conference earlier outside of
Message to Bruiser Flint: You did everything you could and still got screwed. Screwed.
Sunday, February 18, 2007
BracketBusters Fallout
Outside of Selection Sunday, the ESPN BracketBusters weekend is the most important for mid-major programs in terms of exposure to a national audience. Although the competition has become diluted by including a whopping 102 teams, it demonstrated yet again through the 13 televised games that the mid-majors can produce high quality basketball.
Performance by Conference
Big West (3-5): Double digit losses for Long Beach St. and Cal St. Fullerton can't help seeding.
Colonial (5-7): A bit deceiving. 3-1 for the top four teams in the conference. The caboose continues to let down the conference.
Horizon (7-2): Wright St. continues to gain credibility as the potential team who may win the league tournament. Butler's home loss to Southern Illinois may have been more meaningful than all seven wins.
Metro Atlantic (6-4): Nothing of import. Marist, Siena, and Loyola (MD) all win.
Mid-American (6-6): Akron trounces an outmatched Austin Peay team while Toledo falls at home to Old Dominion. If Kent State can learn to value the ball, they could win the league tournament.
Missouri Valley (5-5): So-so performance from the Valley. I expected more from the conference with the RPI of 7. SIU and Bradley took care of business while Creighton and Wichita St. disappointed. Northern Iowa and Missouri St. (to a lesser degree) lost to better teams in Nevada and Winthrop, respectively.
Ohio Valley (3-8): Ugly on all accounts.
Western Athletic (7-2): Another case of being undermatched, but the league took care of business. Utah St. and Hawaii with big road wins while Nevada continues to roll. New Mexico State gets its biggest non-conference win, although it's not enough to make a case for an at-large bid. Overall, their performance begs the question about a second bid allotment.
T-3: Drexel & Bradley: Both teams were not supposed to win, especially if you watched the first 10 minutes of each game. Rebounding at both ends of the floor and never giving up earned these two teams victories crucial to their at-large bid resumes.
5. The WAC: The top seven teams in the conference won their games while the two that didn't carried 7 wins into Saturday ... combined. Expect heavy consideration for a second bid even if Nevada steamrolls through the conference tournament.
Honorable Mention: Appalachian St. defeated a hungry Wichita St. team who is just starting to come around after a disastrous January. DJ Thompson hit 'the shocker' to stun the crowd at Koch. Add that to neutral court victories against Vanderbilt and Virginia, as well as a road victory at VCU.
The Losers
1. VCU: They needed a win against a RPI top-50 opponent. They failed. No excuses.
2. Creighton: The home loss to Drexel appears worse than it actually is because Drexel has played less than stellar basketball in the last two months, falling earlier this week to William & Mary. Bluejays fans will now have nightmares about Frank Elegar for days on end.
T-3. Wichita St. & Missouri St.: Had Wichita pulled this off, I wonder if the media would've hailed this a quality win. Same case with Missouri State. Teams like Winthrop and Appalachian St. often get disrespected by pundits because of ignorance. When the day is done, the conference RPI of 7 is called into question following losses like these.
5. Butler: A win against a quality opponent would have refreshed the minds of fans who saw them win the Preseason NIT. Graves' bout with the flu made matters worse.
Outside of Selection Sunday, the ESPN BracketBusters weekend is the most important for mid-major programs in terms of exposure to a national audience. Although the competition has become diluted by including a whopping 102 teams, it demonstrated yet again through the 13 televised games that the mid-majors can produce high quality basketball.
Performance by Conference
Big West (3-5): Double digit losses for Long Beach St. and Cal St. Fullerton can't help seeding.
Colonial (5-7): A bit deceiving. 3-1 for the top four teams in the conference. The caboose continues to let down the conference.
Horizon (7-2): Wright St. continues to gain credibility as the potential team who may win the league tournament. Butler's home loss to Southern Illinois may have been more meaningful than all seven wins.
Metro Atlantic (6-4): Nothing of import. Marist, Siena, and Loyola (MD) all win.
Mid-American (6-6): Akron trounces an outmatched Austin Peay team while Toledo falls at home to Old Dominion. If Kent State can learn to value the ball, they could win the league tournament.
Missouri Valley (5-5): So-so performance from the Valley. I expected more from the conference with the RPI of 7. SIU and Bradley took care of business while Creighton and Wichita St. disappointed. Northern Iowa and Missouri St. (to a lesser degree) lost to better teams in Nevada and Winthrop, respectively.
Ohio Valley (3-8): Ugly on all accounts.
Western Athletic (7-2): Another case of being undermatched, but the league took care of business. Utah St. and Hawaii with big road wins while Nevada continues to roll. New Mexico State gets its biggest non-conference win, although it's not enough to make a case for an at-large bid. Overall, their performance begs the question about a second bid allotment.
Big Winners
1. Southern Illinois: The Salukis defeated Butler on the Bulldogs' home court, making an even stronger case for a #3 seed.
2. Winthrop: When your RPI suffers as a result of your conference affiliation, the Golden Eagles have to capitalize on every opportunity and capitalize they did.
1. Southern Illinois: The Salukis defeated Butler on the Bulldogs' home court, making an even stronger case for a #3 seed.T-3: Drexel & Bradley: Both teams were not supposed to win, especially if you watched the first 10 minutes of each game. Rebounding at both ends of the floor and never giving up earned these two teams victories crucial to their at-large bid resumes.
5. The WAC: The top seven teams in the conference won their games while the two that didn't carried 7 wins into Saturday ... combined. Expect heavy consideration for a second bid even if Nevada steamrolls through the conference tournament.
Honorable Mention: Appalachian St. defeated a hungry Wichita St. team who is just starting to come around after a disastrous January. DJ Thompson hit 'the shocker' to stun the crowd at Koch. Add that to neutral court victories against Vanderbilt and Virginia, as well as a road victory at VCU.
The Losers
1. VCU: They needed a win against a RPI top-50 opponent. They failed. No excuses.
2. Creighton: The home loss to Drexel appears worse than it actually is because Drexel has played less than stellar basketball in the last two months, falling earlier this week to William & Mary. Bluejays fans will now have nightmares about Frank Elegar for days on end.
T-3. Wichita St. & Missouri St.: Had Wichita pulled this off, I wonder if the media would've hailed this a quality win. Same case with Missouri State. Teams like Winthrop and Appalachian St. often get disrespected by pundits because of ignorance. When the day is done, the conference RPI of 7 is called into question following losses like these.
5. Butler: A win against a quality opponent would have refreshed the minds of fans who saw them win the Preseason NIT. Graves' bout with the flu made matters worse.
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Two for Tuesday
This edition of the two-fer focuses on the two jewels of the Midwest, Marquette point guard Dominic James and the nationally-ranked Butler Bulldogs of the Horizon League.
Before I go on, let me say that Matt "Fuego" Carroll has ranted and raved about this guy since he donned a Marquette jersey at the beginning of last season. It was only last week when James smoked perennial powerhouse Duke for 25 points and 7 dimes. Last night, James once again demonstrated his ability to take over games in a 65-62 thriller against Valparaiso. James scored the team's final 18 points, including a three-pointer with 3 seconds left that decided the contest. He might just outdo Ronald Steele after all this year.
The second is the Butler Bulldogs (7-0, 19th in AP; 18th in ESPN/USA Today). In a very unlikely preseason NIT final, Butler won the Bulldog derby over Gonzaga. They are led by sharpshooter A.J. Graves, who leads the team in points with 19.7 per contest. The mystery to the success is not in the record, but in how Butler is winning all of its games when being outshot (41.4% to 40.8%) and outrebounded (33 to 31). Thus far, Butler has compensated for its poor shooting by averaging 10 turnovers per game and shooting over 80 percent from the free throw stripe.
This edition of the two-fer focuses on the two jewels of the Midwest, Marquette point guard Dominic James and the nationally-ranked Butler Bulldogs of the Horizon League.
Before I go on, let me say that Matt "Fuego" Carroll has ranted and raved about this guy since he donned a Marquette jersey at the beginning of last season. It was only last week when James smoked perennial powerhouse Duke for 25 points and 7 dimes. Last night, James once again demonstrated his ability to take over games in a 65-62 thriller against Valparaiso. James scored the team's final 18 points, including a three-pointer with 3 seconds left that decided the contest. He might just outdo Ronald Steele after all this year.
The second is the Butler Bulldogs (7-0, 19th in AP; 18th in ESPN/USA Today). In a very unlikely preseason NIT final, Butler won the Bulldog derby over Gonzaga. They are led by sharpshooter A.J. Graves, who leads the team in points with 19.7 per contest. The mystery to the success is not in the record, but in how Butler is winning all of its games when being outshot (41.4% to 40.8%) and outrebounded (33 to 31). Thus far, Butler has compensated for its poor shooting by averaging 10 turnovers per game and shooting over 80 percent from the free throw stripe.
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