NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference) - From 16 to 4

**Before I get into the meat of this post, I found this glorious clip on YouTube. All Madden ’92 lovers will have nostalgia tingling down their spine. Check it out.**

In the first weekend, the chalk held for the most part. In the second weekend, the chalk held almost entirely. The only exceptions were not even upsets with UCLA defeating Kansas (in California, mind you) and Georgetown upending North Carolina in overtime. With regard to UCLA’s win in California, I think they would’ve won on any court on Saturday night, save Phog Allen. The stronger in-game tacticians won in both of those games.

Conference (in order by RPI rank)	Actual Record	Exp. Record	Actual vs. Exp. Diff.	Sweet 16 teams	Elite 8 Teams	Final Four Teams
ACC	7-7	11-6	-2.5	1	1	0
SEC	9-4	7-4	+1.0	3	1	1
Pac-10	10-5	9-6	+1.0	3	2	1
Big Ten	8-5	8-5	0.0	1	1	1
Big East	7-5	8-6	0.0*	2	1	1
Missouri Valley	2-2	2-2	0	1	0	0
Big XII	6-4	8-3	-1.5	2	1	0
Mountain West	2-2	2-2	0.0	1	0	0
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-2	1-2	+0.5	1	0	0
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* higher winning percentage for actual record

The chart above demonstrates the poor performance by the ACC relative to their regular season accolades. To send the most teams (7) and only send one to the Sweet 16 is weak. This marks the second straight year in which the ACC had a 1-seed that failed to make it to the Final Four.

For the second straight year, the SEC outperforms its expectations, but not quite like last year. Had Vanderbilt and Tennessee won games that they should have, that would’ve meant that half of the SEC East was in the Elite 8. That’s crazy good. Does it beg the question of including Georgia over Arkansas? Not at all. Georgia wasn’t the same team after losing one of its leading scorers.

The story though should be the Pac-10, who was the only to send two teams to the Elite 8. Given the season previews from real media outlets that have access to first-hand information, I expected 3-4 bids this season. They’re also the perennial doormat during the NCAA tournament and a constant focus of criticism whenever a representative (usually Stanford) falls as a 1-seed during the first weekend. In a 10-team league, five teams were no-doubters and only one came into question (Stanford) when it came to Selection Sunday. UCLA and Oregon took care of business while USC was 1-2 contributors away from fending off Carolina in the round of 16.

As for the Final 4, I had Texas A&M instead of Ohio State, so I’d like to thank Memphis for playing its best game in two years in the Sweet 16 matchup. I’m obligated to picking Georgetown versus Florida, because that’s what I had in my bracket.

Given the circumstances, I can see UCLA defeat Florida, because the Gators have needed excellent long distance shooting to get where they are right now. Florida has had a lot of unforced errors on offense. If the Bruins stick to their guns and play stellar perimeter defense, annoy the big men, and score points, then I like their chances of playing on Monday.

With little margin for error, the Ohio State/Georgetown game is a pick’em. I’ve characterized the Buckeyes as lucky all tournament long, but they’re obviously talented, well-coached and don’t give up when they’re down. They also just played their most complete offensive game of the season. Let’s just say that it won’t be a repeat performance. Who will stop Jeff Green? Is Cook, Hunter, or Lighty up to the challenge? At this point, Jeff Green may be the most lethal player in the tournament because of his ability to affect games in so many different ways, even when he’s not scoring points.

NCAA Tournament Performance (by conference)

The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament has come and gone, and unless you had Wisconsin or a dark horse going far, your bracket is still in decent shape. The preservation of the top seeds only amplifies the quality of matchups that will take place this upcoming weekend starting with Thursday night.

The only major upset of the weekend was UNLV eliminating Wisconsin in Chicago. I was surprised when Washington State forgot how to play perimeter defense against Vanderbilt in what turned out to be a double overtime defeat.

There is no perfect way to gauge conference performance, but what we can do is look at expected and actual numbers from the multi-bid conferences. For the record, it’s not completely scientific, but it does work with the seeds designated by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

Conference	Actual Record	Expected Record	Actual vs. Expected Difference	Actual Sweet 16 teams	Expected Sweet 16 teams	Sweet 16 Difference
ACC	6-6	9-4	-2.5	1	3	-2
SEC	7-2	5-4	+2.0	3	1	+2
Pac-10	7-3	8-3	-0.5	3	3	0
Big Ten	6-5	5-4	0*	1	2	-1
Big East	5-4	7-4	-1.0	2	2	0
Missouri Valley	2-1	2-1	0	1	1	0
Big XII	5-2	6-1	-1.0	2	3	-1
Mountain West	2-1	2-2	+0.5	1	0	+1
Western Athletic	1-2	1-2	0	0	0	0
Atlantic-10	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0
Horizon	2-1	1-2	+1.0	1	0	+1
Colonial	1-2	0-2	+0.5	0	0	0

* lower winning percentage for actual record

When staring at these statistics, a few things jump out.

• First, the ACC has done the worst job of “holding” seeds in this tournament. In three games, a member school has lost to a lower seed. In Virginia’s case, many feel that they were generously seeded.

• Second, the SEC (the SEC East, in particular) has been stellar. In my opinion, Tennessee had the good fortune of being in a pod with three overseeded teams. I will never understand an objective argument describing how either Virginia or Long Beach State deserved within one seed line of their given seed. Had Wazzou held onto their double-digit lead against Vanderbilt, we’d be discussing the Pac-10 in this spot.

• Third, … so the Big Ten wasn’t as bad as I thought they were. I stand by my somewhat inflammatory (yet factually based) comments about Illinois. I watched a fair amount during the regular season and preferred to watch the good defensive teams of the Valley instead of the Big Ten save Ohio State and Wisconsin. Like last year, the Big Ten had a lazy Sunday this year.

• Fourth, the end game for the Big East is what we expected after the first weekend – Georgetown and Pittsburgh move on and everyone else going home. What we didn’t expect were all of the close games. While the nation expected VCU to keel over and die after being down 19 in the second half, I was more surprised by the sustained effort of Boston College against Georgetown. The Big East record might have been better had Jerel McNeal and Mike Nardi been healthier, but I don’t believe that a healthy McNeal or Nardi would have altered the number of Big East teams in the Sweet 16.

• Lastly, I, for one, thought a few of the seedings were shrouded in subjectivity. Of course, I can talk for hours about Virginia, who actually played some quality basketball in the tournament - unlike the two weeks leading up to the NCAAs. There’s also UNLV, who we projected as a 4-seed (actual: 7-seed), and then *stunned* Wisconsin. The two that have the committee smiling are Butler and Vanderbilt. Following the method of previous selection committees, many bracketologists placed less value on November victories; however, Butler received a 5-seed, compared to an 8-seed, which was projected by a group of 30 bracketologists. To their defense, they validated the seed and overachieved by defeating a good Old Dominion team (who played a bad game, trust me) and a favored Maryland squad. As for the Commodores, their 5-5 close to the season capped by two non-road defeats to Arkansas had people thinking that they were destined for the doomed 8-seed. As it was, Vanderbilt got a 6-seed, trounced a GW team that was happy to be in the dance and gutted out a thriller against the Cougars.

One thing we do know is that, despite the chatter – mainly by ESPN guys who have more airtime than substantive material to fill it with - there was no George Mason this year. USC (5), Butler (5), Vanderbilt (6), and UNLV (7) are the only non-protected seeds that advanced the round of 16. All in all, this is just one weekend, and much of this story has yet to unfold. That is the beauty of this madness that takes place annually in March and grips us to our sofas for hours on end. By next weekend, 16 will have become 4 and more stories will be etched into our permanent memory. Until the games return in 89 hours, savor the quality of basketball we’ve enjoyed over this past weekend and do your best to resist watching the NIT (that is, unless you have a rooting interest).

UNC - Kansas Breakdown

A few Kansas supporters have disputed North Carolina being given a 1 seed over Kansas in the most recent installment of the tournament projections. Here are the factors I’ve been looking at throughout this process. As far as I know, neither team has a serious injury.

Data indicators courtesy of www.kenpom.com.

	North Carolina	Kansas
Record	25-6	27-4
RPI/Pomeroy rating avg	2	8.5
SOS	5	65
Record v. RPI Top 50	11-4	3-2
Record v. RPI 51-100	4-1	9-2
Losses v. RPI 100+	1	0
Non-Conf. SOS	8	110
Last 10 Record	6-4	9-1
Road/Neutral Record	9-5	11-2
Best Overall Win	v. Ohio State (w/o Oden)	Florida (N)
Best Road/Neutral Win	@ Duke	Florida (N)

Lately, Kansas has been peaking and Carolina has been shaky on the road. For that reason, many bracketologists have been giving the Jayhawks the nod over the Tar Heels. However, are those same bracketologists becoming what they hate most (pollsters)? In many respects, I tend to think so, and it slants public opinion.

Looking at the numbers, Kansas is buoyed by 2 less losses, no losses to teams with a RPI over 100, a much better record over their last 10 games, a stronger road/neutral court record, and their signature win against Florida in Las Vegas. As for Carolina, their RPI is stronger, their non-conference and overall schedule flattens Kansas. They have 8 (count ‘em, 8) more RPI top 50 victories and a stronger winning percentage against them to boot. While their best overall win is not as strong as Kansas winning one game versus Florida in Las Vegas, wins at Duke, at Arizona (28 points), versus Tennessee in New York level the strength of quality wins and even tilt the category in Carolina’s favor.

All of this comes back to schedule strength. North Carolina is likely to lose more games down the stretch to teams in their conference because the teams in their conference are considerably stronger than that of the Big XII. Furthermore, Kansas did not play the 2^nd and 3^rd best teams in their conference (Texas, Texas A&M) on the road. North Carolina played at the six next best teams (according to RPI) in their conference. Given the current body of work, at this time, North Carolina must be considered above Kansas.