UNC - Kansas Breakdown

A few Kansas supporters have disputed North Carolina being given a 1 seed over Kansas in the most recent installment of the tournament projections. Here are the factors I’ve been looking at throughout this process. As far as I know, neither team has a serious injury.

Data indicators courtesy of www.kenpom.com.

	North Carolina	Kansas
Record	25-6	27-4
RPI/Pomeroy rating avg	2	8.5
SOS	5	65
Record v. RPI Top 50	11-4	3-2
Record v. RPI 51-100	4-1	9-2
Losses v. RPI 100+	1	0
Non-Conf. SOS	8	110
Last 10 Record	6-4	9-1
Road/Neutral Record	9-5	11-2
Best Overall Win	v. Ohio State (w/o Oden)	Florida (N)
Best Road/Neutral Win	@ Duke	Florida (N)

Lately, Kansas has been peaking and Carolina has been shaky on the road. For that reason, many bracketologists have been giving the Jayhawks the nod over the Tar Heels. However, are those same bracketologists becoming what they hate most (pollsters)? In many respects, I tend to think so, and it slants public opinion.

Looking at the numbers, Kansas is buoyed by 2 less losses, no losses to teams with a RPI over 100, a much better record over their last 10 games, a stronger road/neutral court record, and their signature win against Florida in Las Vegas. As for Carolina, their RPI is stronger, their non-conference and overall schedule flattens Kansas. They have 8 (count ‘em, 8) more RPI top 50 victories and a stronger winning percentage against them to boot. While their best overall win is not as strong as Kansas winning one game versus Florida in Las Vegas, wins at Duke, at Arizona (28 points), versus Tennessee in New York level the strength of quality wins and even tilt the category in Carolina’s favor.

All of this comes back to schedule strength. North Carolina is likely to lose more games down the stretch to teams in their conference because the teams in their conference are considerably stronger than that of the Big XII. Furthermore, Kansas did not play the 2^nd and 3^rd best teams in their conference (Texas, Texas A&M) on the road. North Carolina played at the six next best teams (according to RPI) in their conference. Given the current body of work, at this time, North Carolina must be considered above Kansas.