My Carolina Nightmare

Mike Patrick commentating + a 20-point Carolina deficit at the Dean Dome = My Carolina Nightmare

Keys to the Game for Carolina (from this point onward):

1. Play physical in the paint at both ends of the floor
   
2. Force Tech to shoot from the perimeter
3. Mute Mike Patrick (really, he's that awful)
   

Quote of the Night on UNC's turnovers

"UNC has treated the ball like a grenade with the pin pulled out" - Jay Bilas

According to kenpom.com, the Tar Heels are a pedestrian 176th in turnover percentage. That will negate superior offensive rebounding any day against a competent opponent.

10 Questions to the Editor - Bracket Style [Take 2]

Last week's column was such a success (both the questions and the answers), that Pay and I decided this will be a weekly installment until Selection Sunday.

Let's get into it, with a half-dozen questions (plus-one, fittingly) for our resident bracket expert.

Judging by their recent loss to the Citadel, more than just ESPN is hoping Stephen Curry laces up his sneakers and plays Butler on Saturday. It's a 12-noon tipoff, by the way.

Credit: NBCSports.com

Question #1: "The Other Tyler in Chapel Hill"
What does Tyler Zeller's return mean to North Carolina's rotation? Will he become a major factor or perhaps hinder the minutes of contributors off the bench? Is 5 regular season games and the ACC Tournament enough time for him to be prepared for major minutes come March Madness?

Question #2: "Cinderella Arrives at MSG"
Which Big East "letdown" do you see more capable of making a legitimate run at MSG: Georgetown or Notre Dame?

Question #3: "Judgment Day"
Oklahoma may be the #1 team in the country next week. What else should we know about them, for better or worse, besides "The Terminator" Blake Griffin?

Question #4: "Hokie Hotline"
Is there anyone in college basketball who has a more murderous road ahead than "bubbly" Virginia Tech (home and away w/ Florida State, Duke, UNC, and @Clemson)?

Question #5: "Bracketbusters Galore"
Should Stephen Curry play in the bracketbuster game? Is it worth it to risk further injury due to Saturday's matchup being such an important matchup against Butler?

Question #6: "Revenge of 2008???"
Which team is a more dangerous matchup come March Madness: Memphis or Kansas?

***Bonus Question***
Let's be geeks for a moment. If you could have any starting 5 (plus a 6th man) in the country - without the following 5 - who would it be? You might consider matching up against this squad.
C - Hasheem Thabeet [C, Connecticut]
PF - Tyler Hansbrough [F, North Carolina]
SF - Blake Griffin [F, Oklahoma] (we know it's a stretch, but Blake will excel at any position on the frontline)
SG - Stephen Curry [G, Davidson] (yes, he'd be 100% healthy)
PG - Ty Lawson [PG, North Carolina]
6th Man: James Harden [G, Arizona State]

See ya soon, boss.

Will either of Pitt's top performers - Fields & Blair (Young not pictured) - crack Pay's squad?
Only time will tell...
Credit: MSNBC.com

Your Consensus Preseason #1 Come October

... will be the North Carolina Tar Heels. According to ESPN, North Carolina sophomores Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington and junior Danny Green have withdrawn from the NBA Draft. While Green was a near no-brainer and Ellington did not show his best in workouts, Lawson was considered by many to be a first-round pick. Specifically, a number of rumors from reputable sources reported that the Denver Nuggets had extended a promise to the Carolina floor general. However, Lawson dispelled those reports last week (mixed with a DUI and an injury), which led to what was unfathomable a month ago - Carolina returning its four best players.

Others returning to school include:
AJ Abrams, Texas
Robert Dozier, Memphis
Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga
Ronald Steele, Alabama
Robert Vaden, UAB

Saturday’s College Basketball Wrap-Up

We’ll start at the top with North Carolina. As expected, they took care of business, but 43-13 is an embarrassing halftime scoreline to swallow for in-state rival North Carolina State. While giving praise to the Tar Heels for their play, ESPN’s Jay Bilas also suggested that the Wolfpack have major chemistry issues. Having viewed as much as I can handle with a full slate of competitive games on the docket, Bilas’s conjecture seems correct. Of course, it’s easy to be down to North Carolina by 30 points at the interval when they are rolling on all cylinders and the opposition settles for long-distance heaves.

Anyone who did not see the finish to the UConn-Georgetown game may be thinking that there’s another Hibbert on the Hoyas roster, because the 7’2” center nailed a three-pointer with less than five seconds in regulation to earn the home team a 72-69 triumph at the Verizon Center. Right now, I am kicking myself for not getting tickets when I could have to see the Hibbert/Thabeet showdown.

Vanderbilt got knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens at Rupp Arena. Welcome to traveling on the road in the SEC.

Texas got scorched by Missouri. While receiving solid production from their big three – DJ Augustin, Damion James and AJ Abrams – the rest of the team contributed a whopping 19 points and 16 rebounds. This will have to change if Texas wants to remain in 2-seed consideration come Selection Sunday.

Another victim of the shock was none other than Michigan State. Who knew that you could beat a legitimate top 10 opponent by shooting 27.5% from the field and miss 13 free throws? Iowa head coach Todd Lickliter must have preached ball security, because committing eight turnovers versus eighteen for the Spartans is what won the game for the Hawkeyes.

At Westwood, UCLA outlasted Washington State. It was a story of two games – the first 38 minutes where WASU failed to make a basket and the second when they knocked down 7 straight three-pointers. Yes, seven.

Outside of the BCS conferences, Drake and Illinois State continue to be the pacesetters in the Missouri Valley. At some point, I expect at least one member of the old guard – Southern Illinois, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Wichita State – to wake up.

In the Colonial, Delaware (you mean that was picked 12th by the foremost expert on the conference?) is 5-0 in conference play and have been a different team since one game after a number of transfers joined the squad. This week, the Blue Hens required overtime in wins against George Mason and Old Dominion.

I could dabble with the goings-on of other conferences, but they will get their fair share of love in the bracket projections that will be available tomorrow.

Sunday's Finest: Elite 8 Coverage

... Midwest Region ...

#1. Florida vs. #3. Oregon [aka The National Champs vs. Team Track Meet]
Florida wins it 85-77 in a game played in the single digits. Florida asserted itself on both sides of the boards. More importantly, they hit three-pointers at a very high clip, which makes them unstoppable. When Taurean Green gets into an offensive groove, the whole team gets elevated to a different level. When Lee Humphrey is on, you'll have bad dreams that go into next season. Just trust me on that one.

Len Elmore has made too much out of the "struggles" of Tajuan Porter early on, but it was validated in the 2nd half when Porter's shooting slump translated into poor decisions. To expect a repeat performance of Friday night is preposterous. Porter still penetrated effectively. After letting Porter take the accolades for a night, Aaron Brooks re-emerged today as the Ducks' go-to guy. One major trend stood out - whenever Oregon cut the lead to two scores, either the Ducks could not execute or Florida prevented them from doing so. That's the mark of a champion.

The Florida Intangible
The ultimate intangible for Florida is targeting key members of the opposition and getting them into foul trouble. After that, they are able to attack the reserves as well as starters who are trying to avoid prohibitive foul situations. This is exactly how they exploited Butler on Friday night and how they intend on cutting the nets in Atlanta. Today was no different.

An Honest Question
Will Al Horford ever get called for a player control foul when backing down on the opposition? (Note: I would say Horford/Noah, but Noah is so out of control at times that even the worst referee would blow the whistle.)
As Walter Sopchek says in the Big Lebowski, "This isn't [Viet]'nam. There are rules."

... East Region ...
#1. North Carolina vs. #2. Georgetown [aka 12 Deep vs. Hoya Paranoia]

After the Hoyas were down literally all game, they fought tooth and nail to tie up the Tar Heels in the final minute. When the overtime began, the game was over. The Hoyas rolled to a 96-84 overtime victory and their trip to the Final Four in more than twenty years.

Despite 94 combined points in the first half, Georgetown dictated the pace of the game in the second half. Both teams had their cold streaks in the second stanza and Carolina had a 5-11 point lead for the majority of the half. For the first 32 minutes, North Carolina owned the offensive glass (namely, Deon Thompson) and were demonstrating a relative repeat performance of the USC game given the talent of the opposing frontcourt personnel.

Following the under-eight minute timeout, the game turned on a dime. Shortly thereafter, Brandan Wright picked up his fourth foul, and Carolina hit a brief spell. Meanwhile, the Hoyas seemed to score on every trip. In the waning minutes, Carolina took no less than three ill-advised early in the shot clock. All resulted in empty trips. The lack of continuity and the lack of defensive intensity - both being by-products from youth - stifled the Tar Heels' ability to finish off Georgetown.

With less than a minute remaining, Jonathan Wallace hit the shot that others may have seemed afraid to take. As a result, Georgetown tied the game. In my biased, mean world syndrome-affected mind (note: I'm a UNC fan, and have seen many near-giveaways against much weaker teams than Georgetown this season, who I picked to win it all in my single sheet of integrity), Georgetown had won the game because I had little to no faith in Roy Williams' ability to either select the right personnel or choose the right play to break Georgetown's mettle.

When the coach called the timeout for the final play, I expected a well-scripted play. What we got was a generic curl scripted for the wrong player shooting the ball without a single move to Hansbrough. Although Wayne Ellington will live to be a terrific player, he is for all intents and purposes, a young streak shooter. And when your young streak shooter is 2-for-8 (and a freshman), why not script the [horrific] play for the more seasoned pressure shooter, Reyshawn Terry? I would have preferred the boring feed inside to Hansbrough against Roy "I played masterfully with 4 fouls" Hibbert and having Terry on the perimeter waiting for the collapse on the ball, but what do I know? I'm not a coach, never will be, and would be humbled by the opportunity to come within two sniffs of press row.

The end game is that the better team with the better in-game tactician won. Carolina should be very strong next year unless both Wright and Hansbrough declare for the NBA Draft. Georgetown faces a slightly different Ohio State team compared to the one they defeated last year in the NCAA tournament. Just slightly.

Key Stats
North Carolina had a free throw attempts and makes edge of 34-18 and 29-12, respectively. The difference is more stratified when considering that Georgetown made many if not most of its trips during the extra session. To make up for that, JTIII's men shot 8-for-14 from 3-point range, with the underrated Jonathan Wallace hitting 3 of 4 including the one to tie it up.

Fun Facts
- Brad Slepetz, architect of the Hashemi-Slepetz Percentage Index (an evolving alternate to the RPI), has his second school going to the Final Four in as many years. Last year, Slepetz lived the dream at George Mason University. Over the summer, Slepetz, like many before him, bolted for the greener pastures of Georgetown.
- I muted Billy Packer with 9:59 left in the first half after further suggesting that America is blind (insisting Jeff Green did not travel on Friday night). I went back to full volume shortly after the start of the second half.
- Jeff Green had about the quietest 20-point performance he's had all year.

A Six-Pack of Conference Tournament Banter

The final weekend of the regular season means one thing: post-season tournaments. Huh? You heard it right the first time. The big-daddy conferences are settling the score after a year of mostly memorable battles. While several key conferences have been decided (Colonial, MVC, Horizon, Big South, West Coast, etc.), we have plenty still to go. While the A-10 and Conference USA offer up snorers for the most part, here are the Big-6 BCS-laden tournaments and some insights to each to take a peak at before the viewing begins today on Wednesday.

Here’s the briefest of looks from a ramblin’ man’s perspective.

...in alphabetical order...

1) Atlantic Coast Conference [ACC]
Favorite: North Carolina
Hottest: Maryland
StrugaLING: Duke
Hot/Cold: Virginia & Virginia Tech
Overrated: Boston College
Bubble: Clemson & Florida State
Look Out For: Georgia Tech
Player to Watch: Sean Singletary [UVA's 1st of two superstars the other being JR Reynolds, has to make key shots for UVA to avoid a costly slip-up for seeding.]

2) Big East Conference [Big East]
Favorite: Georgetown
Hottest: Louisville
StrugaLING: Connecticut
Hot/Cold: Marquette
Overrated: Notre Dame
Bubble: Syracuse, West Virginia, & DePaul
Look Out For: Villanova
Player to Watch: Roy Hibbert [Georgetown's big-man needs to impose himself more with physical matchups awaiting him with Villanova/ND/Syracuse looming.]

3) Big Ten Conference [Big 10]
Favorite: Wisconsin
Hottest: Ohio State
StrugaLING: Everyone outside Ohio State & Wisconsin honestly
Hot/Cold: Michigan State
Overrated: Indiana
Bubble: Purdue, Illinois, Iowa, & Michigan
Look Out For: Michigan State
Player to Watch: Mike Conley Jr. [Ohio State point guard may be their key player in their attempt to lock up a #1 seed and continue the momentum off of their win at home against Wisconsin.]

4) Big Twelve Conference [Big 12]
Favorite: Kansas
Hottest: Kansas
StrugaLING: Oklahoma State
Hot/Cold: Texas Tech
Overrated: Kansas State
Bubble: Kansas State
Look Out For: Texas & Texas A&M
Player to Watch: Acie Law [Texas A&M’s big-time performer is as clutch as college basketball has seen in recent memory.]

5) Pacific Ten Conference [Pac-10]
Favorite: UCLA
Hottest: Washington
StrugaLING: Arizona
Hot/Cold: Oregon
Overrated: USC
Bubble: Stanford
Look Out For: Oregon/Arizona winner
Player to Watch: Darren Collison [UCLA’s point guard has rebounded from minor injuries for the most part, leading the team whom many consider to be the team-to-beat heading into March Madness.]

6) Southeastern Conference [SEC]
Favorite: Florida
Hottest: Vanderbilt
StrugaLING: SEC West
Hot/Cold: Tennessee
Overrated: Kentucky
Look Out For: Arkansas
Player to Watch: Ronald Steele [Alabama’s best all-around talent is currently injured and many wonder if he will miss out on the postseason altogether this season.]

One way or another, we’re primed for some amazing games. Especially since Saturday Night in Madison Square is always one of my favorite games of the year. Remember these? 1996: Allen Iverson v. Ray Allen, GMac’s run in 2006, Pitt/UCONN 1 (2002), 2 (2003...ok, not so great), and 3 (2004), and plenty more amazing memories have spoiled viewers of the Big East Tournament finale on Saturday nights on ESPN.

Fortunately, there’s enough to go around for everyone.
Even us VCU fans...

UNC - Kansas Breakdown

A few Kansas supporters have disputed North Carolina being given a 1 seed over Kansas in the most recent installment of the tournament projections. Here are the factors I’ve been looking at throughout this process. As far as I know, neither team has a serious injury.

Data indicators courtesy of www.kenpom.com.

	North Carolina	Kansas
Record	25-6	27-4
RPI/Pomeroy rating avg	2	8.5
SOS	5	65
Record v. RPI Top 50	11-4	3-2
Record v. RPI 51-100	4-1	9-2
Losses v. RPI 100+	1	0
Non-Conf. SOS	8	110
Last 10 Record	6-4	9-1
Road/Neutral Record	9-5	11-2
Best Overall Win	v. Ohio State (w/o Oden)	Florida (N)
Best Road/Neutral Win	@ Duke	Florida (N)

Lately, Kansas has been peaking and Carolina has been shaky on the road. For that reason, many bracketologists have been giving the Jayhawks the nod over the Tar Heels. However, are those same bracketologists becoming what they hate most (pollsters)? In many respects, I tend to think so, and it slants public opinion.

Looking at the numbers, Kansas is buoyed by 2 less losses, no losses to teams with a RPI over 100, a much better record over their last 10 games, a stronger road/neutral court record, and their signature win against Florida in Las Vegas. As for Carolina, their RPI is stronger, their non-conference and overall schedule flattens Kansas. They have 8 (count ‘em, 8) more RPI top 50 victories and a stronger winning percentage against them to boot. While their best overall win is not as strong as Kansas winning one game versus Florida in Las Vegas, wins at Duke, at Arizona (28 points), versus Tennessee in New York level the strength of quality wins and even tilt the category in Carolina’s favor.

All of this comes back to schedule strength. North Carolina is likely to lose more games down the stretch to teams in their conference because the teams in their conference are considerably stronger than that of the Big XII. Furthermore, Kansas did not play the 2^nd and 3^rd best teams in their conference (Texas, Texas A&M) on the road. North Carolina played at the six next best teams (according to RPI) in their conference. Given the current body of work, at this time, North Carolina must be considered above Kansas.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3