Livin’ on a Prayer

Saturday gave us plenty to talk about.
Bubble teams saw too much go wrong and very little go right.

Memphis marched closer towards a 2-seed by dispatching Houston. Vermont choked away a golden opportunity vs. Albany (horrid coaching). UNC whipped up BC. (Did Dudley intentionally hit Hansbrough?) Oden and OSU took care of Purdue, as expected. Kansas held on vs. pesky Kansas State. Va Tech slipped up AGAIN, this time vs. NC State. The state of Mississippi took a step back off of the bubble with Ole Miss losing to Florida handily and Arkansas outgunning and outrunning Miss State. Oklahoma State’s season ended vs. Kevin Durant and Texas. Illinois became the penultimate big-name bubble team with a bad loss to Wisconsin. GW stamped a ticket from the A-10. Miami (OH) got the luckiest shot of the day to advance to the dance. UNLV had just enough against BYU and is hot entering March Madness. Hang Time alum Reggie Theus led New Mexico St. to the dance out of the WCC. Georgetown pummeled Pitt and an overwhelmed Aaron Gray to capture the Big East title. Florida A&M provided memorable late-second drama, Jackson State is back dancing again, and Long Beach State took home a late-night ticket. Most surprising to me though had to be Oregon annihilating USC from start to finish.

Deep breaths. Quite a day!

Sweating it out most heavily has to be the likes of: Drexel (CAA), ODU (CAA), Stanford (Pac-10), West Virginia (Big East), Air Force (MWC), Alabama (SEC), Appalachian State (SoCon), Kansas State (Big 12), Purdue (Big 10), Oklahoma State (Big 12), Missouri State (MVC) Texas Tech (Big 12), Illinois (Big Ten), Xavier (A-10), and Florida State (ACC). [I know I forgot a team or two…]

Perhaps Arkansas (supported by some and forgotten by others) is the only true bubble-team still playing tomorrow. Sorry Michigan fans…you’ve been TKO’d ever since Friday afternoon. Although you had to know that.

Problem is: Sunday may have even more in store for the true bubble teams. [Arkansas, Stanford, Air Force, Illinois, Drexel, ODU, Purdue, Missouri State, Florida State, and Xavier…in my humble opinion)

Here’s the lineup…

SEC Championship Game: 1:00 pm in Atlanta, Georgia
Florida Gators vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Pick: Gators by double-digits.

ACC Championship Game: 1:00 pm in Tampa, Florida
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Pick: Tar Heels pull away late.

Big Twelve Championship Game: 3:00 pm in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas Longhorns
Pick: Durant and co. fall short at the buzzer vs. Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk.

Big Ten Championship Game: 3:30 pm in Chicago, Illinois
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Pick: Oden and Conley Jr. pace the Buckeyes past Tucker in another ugly matchup.

There’s also one minor bid up for grabs, from the 1-bid conference known as the Southland Conference, in which Texas A&M C.C. faces one of last year’s tourney darlings Northwestern State.

So while the committee remains hard at work, much of the country will be tuned into a spectacular quartet of games. Question is, will they be watching them or just hearing updated scores here or there?

Quick Thoughts
-Arkansas isn’t an at-large yet, but you have to believe even a close showing here might be just enough to sneak them in due to “how well they’re playing RIGHT now”.
-Florida is playing for a 1-seed in the South in my opinion. This is no time to waste this opportunity.
-North Carolina could win and still not earn a 1-seed. However, I see them winning AND acquiring one of the four 1-seeds.
-NC State isn’t in…but they’ve beaten Carolina before this season (albeit in Raleigh). Anything can happen with a jacket like Sidney (not Suge Knight) Lowe's in the St. Pete Time's Forum.
-Kansas may be the hottest team in the country, yet still seems incredibly venerable at times to me. It’ll be interesting to see if Durant can stay 100% the entire game.
-Texas will be one of the sexier picks to make a deep run, perhaps even as champs, within numerous brackets. If they win this game, most media pundits will put them in their Final Four.
-Ohio State will secure the overall #1-seed, and continue a massive winning-streak, if they can pull a win here.
-Wisconsin needs a win to become a #1, potentially replacing Ohio State (especially if the committee wants to keep UCLA as the #1 out West and push Wisconsin past the Buckeyes in the Midwest or South). Kammron Taylor must be related to Chris Rock, right?

Drama galore. It should be great.
Obviously EVERYONE on the bubble is rooting for the Tar Heels to dismantle the Wolfpack EARLY and for Arkansas to be toppled by the Gators in easy fashion. Of course, it never seems to happen that way.

Final Thought: If the CAA ends up being a one-bid conference…the entire committee should be fired instantaneously. Bias or not…it’s true to me.

See you at 6pm…

Questions To Ponder

Thursday is the busiest day of the spectacle that is Championship Week. The day is all about answering questions in the major conferences. If teams are unable to do so today, then they are often the ones sweating it out on Selection Sunday and usually on the short end of the stick. With that said, here are some questions I've thought of that may or may not be answered today. Feel free to add to them.

* How will Mike Nardi's injury that prevents him from his normal contributions affect the Villanova resume?
* How much can Florida St. blame their 1-4 slump on Toney Douglas being out of the lineup?
* Did Air Force do enough in the first three months of the season to overcome the last month and a half? And what if they lose later today to Wyoming?
* Where are you, Ronald Steele? One answer. The NIT, if you're lucky.
* If Texas Tech loses to Colorado, do they return to the other side of the bubble despite 3 signature wins? What about Michigan State?
* Which team, if any, will emerge from the SEC bubble?

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 8.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

This week, North Carolina is back in the top 4, knocking out Wisconsin, who needed a late three-pointer by Kammron Taylor to overcome Michigan State at home. The Heels hopped Kansas, who had a big win versus Texas, but only started their comeback following a brief injury to phenom Kevin Durant.

The big shock (to me) is Virginia Tech as a 4 seed. In my opinion, they have nowhere to go but down following their defeat at home to Clemson. They’re riding on their 6-2 record against the top 6 teams (not including them) in the ACC. If they do not impress in Tampa next weekend, they can easily fall to a 7 or 8 seed. In fact, the quality margin between 16 and 28 overall is razor-thin.

In the Valley, Creighton overcame two regular season losses to Southern Illinois by defeating them to take the automatic bid. In the CAA, craziness set forth as George Mason has beaten Hofstra and at-large candidate Old Dominion. Tonight, they seek to complete an improbable sweep of the conference’s top three teams after being 0-5 against these teams in the regular season. The theme of retribution resurfaces as they face off against rival Virginia Commonwealth in Richmond.

One of the most shocking yet little-spoken upsets of the weekend was Arkansas’ victory at Vanderbilt. It catapulted the Razorbacks to the final spot in the field. Clemson and Florida St. also had good weeks, which puts them within reach of an at-large bid. Meanwhile, Drexel remains in the field due to their strong road/neutral court record as well as their quality wins. Losing to VCU in Richmond is no small crime, but Drexel will likely become victim to teams on the outside who surge their way into the tournament.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. The teams who are officially in the tournament are in bold italics. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (4)	South (3)	Midwest (2)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Kansas	Wisconsin	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Washington St.	Maryland	Memphis	Southern Illinois
4	Pittsburgh	Oregon	Tennessee	Virginia Tech
5	Arizona	Marquette	Duke	Vanderbilt
6	UNLV	Nevada	Virginia	Texas
7	Georgia Tech	Louisville	BYU	Kentucky
8	Indiana	Texas Tech	Creighton	Villanova
9	Butler	Xavier	Notre Dame	Michigan St.
10	Winthrop	Air Force	USC	Boston College
11	Syracuse	Missouri St.	Old Dominion	Stanford
12	Virginia Commonwealth	Davidson	Akron	Gonzaga
13	Arkansas	Purdue	Holy Cross	Drexel
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Texas A&M - CC	Siena	Belmont	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Eastern Kentucky	Delaware St.

In: Virginia Commonwealth, Purdue, Arkansas, Texas A&M-CC, Siena, Belmont (in), Eastern Kentucky (in)
Out: Illinois, Georgia, Appalachian St., Sam Houston St., Marist, E. Tennesee St., Austin Peay

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Ohio St., Florida, North Carolina
2s: Kansas, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Maryland, Washington St.
4s: Pittsburgh, Oregon, Tennessee, Virginia Tech
5s: Duke, Arizona, Marquette, Vanderbilt
6s: UNLV, Nevada, Texas, Virginia
7s: Kentucky, BYU, Louisville, Georgia Tech
8s: Indiana, Creighton, Texas Tech, Villanova
9s: Notre Dame, Michigan St., Xavier, Butler
10s: USC, Winthrop, Air Force, Boston College
11s: Syracuse, Stanford, Missouri St., Old Dominion
12s: Virginia Commonwealth, Gonzaga, Davidson, Akron
13s: Purdue, Drexel, Holy Cross, Arkansas
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Siena, Texas A&M –CC, Belmont
16s: Eastern Kentucky, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

Last Four In: Old Dominion, Purdue, Drexel, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Florida St., UMass, Clemson, Illinois
Next Four Out: Bradley, Georgia, Kansas St., West Virginia

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
SEC: 5
Big 12: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 3