10 Infamous NBA Draft Busts of the past 10 Years

Be sure to check in here at PHSports and the Twitter site (Tweet Tweet) for plenty of post-NBA draft analysis.


Now that the NBA Draft is o-v-a, let’s critique the past before we venture into the future.

What a much better title to a (classic?) movie trilogy!!!
Venture to the Future!!!
Okay, not so much.

There are EASY busts to find, as you’ll see below, but I want to change things up a little bit. It’s just my style…

Here are the “guidelines”:
A) I’ll display the EASY pick (or picks) after my own selection.
B) Only one sentence of justification (I hope).
C) I’ll share a BUST I predicted correctly and a BOOM I didn’t see coming.
D) I’ll try and eliminate bias. Key word: try.

2008 – #6. Danilo Gallinari (New York via Italy)
I may chew on these words in the coming years (hope I do!), yet I wonder far too often if passing up on Brook Lopez, Eric Gordon, or even Jerryd Bayless may haunt Donnie Walsh from his first season as Knicks GM.

Easy Pick: #8 Joe Alexander (Milwaukee via West Virginia)
BUST: Tougher thank you think to isolate…
BOOM: #22 Courtney Lee (Orlando via Western Kentucky)

2007 – #1. Greg Oden [Portland via Ohio State]
Nobody hopes I’m wrong more than me; HOWEVER, as of now (AS OF NOW), he’s a BUST. As of now…

Easy Pick: #7 Corey Brewer (Minnesota via Florida)
BUST: #20 Jason Smith (Philadelphia via Colorado State)
BOOM: #26 Aaron Brooks (Houston via Oregon)

2006 – #3. Adam Morrison [Charlotte via Gonzaga]
As sloppy an early 1st round (save teammates Brandon Roy & LaMarcus Aldridge thus far) you’re likely to see in recent memory, this first round was a mess altogether; made no better by another somewhat baffling selection by the GM known as MJ.

Easy Pick: #10 Mouhammed Sene (Seattle via Belgium)
BUST: #9 Patrick O’Bryant (Golden State via Bradley)
BOOM: #21 Rajon Rondo (Boston via Kentucky)

2005 – #6. Martell Webster [Portland via Seattle Prep School]
While many of the names after him didn’t far any better, Webster was a high schooler who was chosen specifically because of how he shot the deep ball, which still makes no sense to me at all.

Easy Pick: #11 Fran Vazquez (Orlando via Spain)
BUST: #12 Yaroslav Korolev [LA Clippers via Russia]
BOOM: #30 David Lee [New York via Florida]

2004 – #10. Luke Jackson [Cleveland via Oregon]
A personal favorite of mine, the former Duck was a sensational college scorer who fell flat on his face in a far-too-athletic NBA.

Easy Pick: #8 Rafael Araujo (Toronto via BYU)
BUST: #13 Sebastian Telfair (Boston via Mean Streets of Brooklyn)
BOOM: #26 Kevin Martin (Sacremento via Western Carolina)

2003 – #2. Darko Milicic [Detroit via Serbia]
Perhaps the “too easy pick”, Milicic went to a STACKED Detroit roster after a guy named LeBron and before guys named Carmelo, Bosh, and Wade.

Easy Pick: #9 Michael Sweetney [New York via Georgetown]
BUST: #10 Jarvis Hayes [Washington via Georgia]
BOOM: #18 David West [New Orleans via Xavier]

2002 – #2. Jay Williams [Chicago via DOOK]
A motorcycle crash, nearly fatal, in 2003 rocked the career of the former collegiate standout; nevertheless, questions had remained concerning Williams’ size and decision making abilities.

Easy Picks: #5 Nikoloz Tskitishvili [Denver via Italy] & #6 Dejuan Wagner [Cleveland via Memphis]
BUST: #12 Melvin Ely (LA Clippers via Fresno State)
BOOM: #34 Carlos Boozer (Cleveland via DOOK)

2001 – #9. Rodney White [Detroit via Charlotte]
Whenever you mention 2001, you think Kwame Brown; however, White – the National Freshman of the Year – left the NBA in 2005 with little to nothing to show for his career.

Easy Pick: #11 Kedrick Brown (Boston via Okaloosa-Walton Community College)
Too Easy Pick: #1 Kwame Brown (Washington via Michael Jordan’s machinations)
BUST: #17 Michael Bradley (Toronto via Villanova)
BOOM: #10 Joe Johnson (Boston via Arkansas Southern)

2000 – #6. DeMarr Johnson [Atlanta via Cincinnati]
58 selections and only 3 All-Stars (Kenyon Martin, Jamaal Magloire, & Michael Redd) emerged, none more telling a sign than the journeyman Johnson, who may have rode the coattails of fellow first-round pick Kenyon Martin to far too high of a selection.

Easy Pick: #4 Marcus Fizer [Chicago Bulls via Iowa State]
BUSTED: #7 Chris Mihm [Cleveland via Texas]
BOOM: #37 Eddie House [Miami via Arizona State]

Note: This draft was an absolute blood bath. God bless Michael Redd for making something of this train wreck of "talent".

1999 – #15. Frederic Weis [New York Knicks via France]
Perhaps best known as the ultimate “poster” for Vince Carter, Weis was taken over Queens’ own Ron Artest and never signed with the Knicks to play a single game in the NBA.

Easy Pick: #5 Jonathan Bender [Indiana Pacers via Picuyane High School]
BUSTED: #11 Trajan Langdon [Cleveland via DOOK]
BOOM: #9 Shawn Marion [Phoenix via UNLV]

Now it’s YOUR turn to bring out your disappointments and surprises.
Well come on!!!

Check out the new poll (top right) and don't let the NBA Draft leave you just left. Instant analysis is what you crave and that's what you get. Especially HERE.

InClement Weather: Midnight Musings

Here are twenty-or-so random thoughts running throw my head, sitting in front of my computer screen at 12:36am.

I'll try my best to make them relevant, my friends.

Memo to Greg Oden:
1) Everyone owns a digital camera.
2) Anyone can upload to YouTube
3) Don't ever trust girls wearing outfits like THAT.
4) Seriously bro. Watch the knees!!!
Credit: Deadspin

1) I'm glad the election frenzy is nearly a month behind us. As excited as I was (especially being an 8th grade Civics teacher), it's nice to focus on what "really matters".
2) LeBron James (5) already has more 50 point games than Larry Bird (4). Did you know that Iverson (11) and Kobe (23!) lead the way with active players with 50+-point outings?
3) Ramon Sessions is gonna be a very good point-guard in the NBA for a long time. Gee, I wonder which two writers on this staff predicted that?
4) The Wizards should be embarrassed losing to a 7-man Knicks squad tonight. Especially since they gave up 7 treys to the Q. Pathetic.
5) When's Lost coming back? Seriously? WHEN!?!?

6) Dan Patrick still remains the best thing on radio...but not on television.
7) Pete Prisco of CBSSportsline.com HATES my Jets. GOOD! He can dine with Peter "Always a Fatty" King. Yeah, that nickname is perfect.
8) I hate how much impact November games have on the selection status come mid-March for the NCAA tournament. I think dates of these early pre-conference games should come into effect when you count wins and losses.
9) There might not be a better ending than Friday afternoon's hoopla between Xavier (Santos!) and Virginia Tech.
10) Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. Therefore, they deserve a higher BCS ranking than the Sooners.

11) Casino Royale was supposed to be the "return" of the Bond franchise. After Quantum of Solace...the franchise has slipped big time again (thanks Mr. Director!).
12) Brazilian film City of God is the best movie none of you have ever seen. Rent it!
13) Major League Baseball needs to hand out its awards during the postseason. Even if Pujols has to receive his MVP on vacation in San Juan or on his recliner in the Lew.
14) Props to Mike Mussina. Going out without a ring but with a 20-win season. Props.
15) Psycho T will be Psycho T soon enough. Be patient UNC fans.

16) Alabama vs. Florida can't be half the stinker Texas Tech/Oklahoma was, right? PLEASE!!!
17) The Heisman trophy grows more irrelevant with every passing year.
18) Elton Brand had to enjoy that game-winning bucket against the Clippers more than he showed. Right?
19) Stay healthy Greg Oden. Please. Please. Please.
20) I really am pulling for Oregon State to win the Civil War. Just like I pulled for the Union army.

See ya next time...

Oden Headlines Potential Ohio State and Nevada Exodus

Later today, Greg Oden is expected to formally announce that he will declare himself eligible for this year's NBA Draft. He will hire an agent, who is rumored to be Mike Conley Sr. Additionally, freshmen teammates Mike Conley Jr. and Daequan Cook will also declare for the draft, but will not reportedly hire an agent.

As we know, Oden is the odds-on #1 pick overall. Conley Jr.'s display in the NCAA tournament catapulted him into the mid-to-late lottery. At most draft projection sites, the elite point guard is expected to go to the Atlanta Hawks (via trade with Indiana) with what is now the 12th pick overall. His talent posits that can go higher, but he may slip due to teams needing bigger players. The third wheel, Daequan Cook, flourished within the open court system that the Buckeyes employed prior to Greg Oden's arrival. Cook's explosiveness in and around the hoop, shooting range and general upside make him a potential mid-to-late 1st round pick should he excel in pre-draft workouts.

One Way to Guarantee Conley Jr. Staying in the Draft
By now, we know for sure that if given the chance, Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr. would love to play on the same team in the NBA. However, it's just not likely. By not likely, it's about 11.9% likely. Currently, the Phoenix Suns hold the 4th pick overall, which they received from the Atlanta Hawks via the trade for Joe Johnson. That pick has a top 3 protection, meaning that the pick will belong to Atlanta if they somehow get drawn into the top 3. If the Hawks get the luck of the draw and somehow land the #1 pick overall, they will have a chance at drafting the dynamic duo.

Nevada Guards Testing Waters
Nevada junior guards Marcelus Kemp and Ramon Sessions are also entering the draft, but will not be hiring an agent. Though Wolfpack head coach Mark Fox has praised the duo, he has recommended that both return to school for their senior seasons if they are not guaranteed first-round draft picks. This is not new territory for Fox or for the guards, because last year, teammate Nick Fazekas explored his draft possibilities, but ultimately returned to Reno for his senior year. At present, both Kemp and Sessions have potential 2nd-round stock.

Given that many NBA teams attempt to hit home runs in the 2nd round by drafting project-type players from overseas, the guards may slip out of the draft entirely.

Draft Stock Summary

Greg Oden -- 1st pick overall
Mike Conley Jr. -- Could be taken as high as 5, if Seattle decides to go with a point guard. Sacramento and Philadelphia at 10 and 11, respectively, may go with Conley should Mike Bibby and Andre Miller not be in the long term picture for their teams. If not, he'll go to Atlanta, who should have the ammunition to move up in the draft.
Daequan Cook -- Late first round to undrafted. Boatloads of upside yet to be realized (AKA "The NBA Dream"). Unlike his playing time that dwindled during the season, Cook will have a say in his ability to be drafted in the 1st round.
Marcelus Kemp -- A likely second round pick, if drafted at all. Is considered behind shooting guards such as Nicholas Batum (France), Nick Young, Arron Afflalo, Marco Belinelli (Italy), Derrick Byars, Rudy Fernandez (Spain), Marcus Williams, Morris Almond, and Rodney Stuckey.
Ramon Sessions -- Unlikely to be drafted. Sessions may benefit as a result of a relatively weak point guard class. The point guard has plenty of ground to make up including a list not limited to the aforementioned Conley Jr., Acie Law IV, Aaron Brooks, Taurean Green, Bobby Brown, Dominic James (if he declares), and a number of international prospects.

College Basketball Confusion: A Weekend in Review

As we inch closer to the NBA Draft, fans are supposed to view issues through a clearer lens. If that's the case, then you can consider this weekend to be an anomaly of sorts.

On Friday, Georgetown juniors Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert declared for the NBA Draft; however, neither has yet to sign with an agent. Essentially, next season goes from being a potential season to compete for the national title to a rebuilding year with lower expectations. At this point, both players are considered to be lottery picks (1-14) in this year's draft, and if that holds true, it would be a shock to see either return for their senior season.

In a story published by the Indianapolis Star on Saturday, Greg Oden Sr. said that his son will enter the draft. He also said that Mike Conley Jr. would represent the odds-on 1st pick overall. On that same day, reports surfaced on ESPN television stating that Mike Conley Jr. and Daequan Cook were also entering their names for the draft. On Saturday night, Mike Conley Sr. refuted the earlier statements and said that Greg Oden had yet to make a decision and that if decides to go to the pros, only then will he decide his representation. Since the elder Conley's statement, ESPNEWS has not reported (and re-reported with its nauseating yet informative 15-minute loops) anything about Conley Jr. and Cook; therefore, as of this moment, we must consider that the initial report was unsubstantiated.

In coaching news, Wichita State got themselves a dandy of a head coach in the form of former Winthrop head coach Gregg Marshall. He replaces Mark Turgeon, who left for Texas A&M earlier this week. As for Marshall, he tentatively agreed to a 7-year contract that will pay him approximately $750,000 per year, including performance incentives.

Winthrop moved quickly to fill its vacancy by tabbing assistant coach Randy Peele to be its head coach. Terms were undisclosed.

March Madness & the National Title Game: Closing Thoughts

Well, it should come as no surprise to any serious college basketball fans that the Florida Gators took home the 2007 National Championship. A lot of office pools will be checking tie-breakers as the chalk, meaning the Gators of course, stood firm.

By now, you should know the majority of their accolades: first repeat champions since Duke in 91-92, first ever starting 5 to repeat, and the first SEC team to repeat since Kentucky back at the half-century mark in the 1900s.

What you will soon know, being that I watched every second of the game so I could sound like I know what I was talking about, were some of my other tournament and NCAA-related observations. I’ll call them my 2007 NCAA Tournament Top Ten. Clichéd…yet simplistic enough to work.

#1. RE-PEAT
-Picked by the majority of pundits, myself included, this Gator squad was the most talented team from start to finish this season. Sure they encountered their typical SEC-hiccups, yet the Gators always played their best game against their best opponents. While some felt the tournament selection committee rewarded them too highly, perhaps solely on the merits of being the defending champs, with the easiest region and the overall #1-seed…the Gators took out two of the best teams the nation had to offer once they left the South Regional [UCLA & Ohio State].

#2. Fab Five
-The new “Fab Five” took out the “Thad Five”, never allowing their lead to dip any closer than 6 points in the final 30+ minutes of the game. While the Buckeyes never let things get out of control, Florida never seemed to sweat or shift into any sort of panic mode. Al Horford was a master in the blocks, Corey Brewer had an electric first-half on both sides of the ball, Taurean Green hit two daggers to restore double-digit leads as he paced the Gators throughout the second-half with steady & heady play, and Lee Humphrey excelled from behind the arc (as he always seems to do). Even the guy’s ridiculous air ball lead to a pivotal three-point play (typical, isn’t it?) As for Mr. Noah, I’ll handle him a little later. And it won’t be very kind.

#3. #1 Pick
-Anyone who doesn’t want to draft Greg Oden at #1…is a moron. I love Kevin Durant as much as anyone, but you NEVER pass up the opportunity to draft a backend center…no less one WHO WANTS TO PLAY CENTER. Tonight’s loss by the Buckeyes has ZERO to do with Greg Oden. I won’t hear any arguments about him lingering back on top-of-the-key screens either, as Buckeyes guards never fought through them enough and Thad Matta obviously had that idea planned (which is surprising with the three-point shooting prowess of the Gators). You want numbers from a freshman? 25 points [10-15 fgs], 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He had several ferocious dunks and several monster blocks (the block on Brewer would’ve given Gus Johnson a hernia and a heart attack). Unfortunately, while it wasn’t his intent, a lot of the blocks ended up back in Gator hands and led to eventual crippling buckets. Let’s not forget the 38+ minutes he logged either. Try that at 7-foot and nearly 270 lbs. Greg Oden will leave Columbus with nothing to be ashamed of. I will however be calling out his teammates…next.

#4. The “Others”
-No, this isn’t Lost. Instead, it’s me calling out a few choice-Buckeyes. While I understand this team is young, several key Buckeye players were completely absent from the world’s greatest stage. Yes, the limelight often gets the best of a lot of people. Especially since your first time is typically your only time. Ask Francisco Garcia, Jeff Green, Joey Graham, and a few others what the Final Four can do to you. Jamar Butler just plain stunk up the Georgia Dome tonight. He shot 1-7 from the field, with only a late prayer going in, and was nowhere near the inside of the net on any of his deep shot attempts. His defense was consistently lagging (that’s being friendly too) and I felt Matta made a key mistake not inserting Lighty or Cook, even for a brief stint, earlier in the game. Ron Lewis penetrated well and made some nice transition dunks, but was absent the entire Final Four. He never worked off of a screen and seemed unable to square up to the hoop. I was thoroughly disappointed in the 5^th-year senior’s performance these past two games. Othella Hunter could use some tip drills…but he’s young and a little soft still. While Mike Conley Jr. dodged early foul trouble, he definitely got a peak into what a point guard should be for his team from Taurean Green (as I noted in my preview, ahem). Conley Jr., whether he stays or goes, will be an incredible talent…but was clearly the second best PG on the court tonight.

#5. Backing Down
-There are ways to effectively post-up and then back down your opponent. Want to see how to do it? Watch Larry Johnson at UNLV in the early 90s. Watch Sean May at UNC (especially that title-game performance vs. Illinois). Watch Will Thomas, last season, at George Mason. You bring your body into your defender, absorb the pressure, wait for them to take a step back, and then lean into their body and balance your way into a 3-4 foot tip-in or jump-hook shot. Al Horford doesn’t do this. He backs you down, and I admire the physicality, and drops a shoulder deep into you. Chris Richard lowers the boom. Noah is afraid to do it when you realize you can stop him by holding your ground. Of course the refs didn’t decide this game, but after seeing plenty of highlights (and talking to Pay), the Butler game definitely showed why Horford will have to develop a new back-down method in the NBA. You can’t even do that against a bench-big in the pros.

#6. Coaching
-We don’t talk much about coaches at PHSports and I’m sticking to that…mostly. Except that Thad Matta has done a masterful job recruiting at Ohio State and has the program a year or two away from being that consistent top-1o performer they were this year and most of last. As for Billy Donovan…stay at Florida. Kentucky is enticing, but it isn’t worth leaving what you have in Florida. Big men are easy to pluck in the Sunshine State and you have job security for life. For life. While Kentucky’s numbers and legacy are daunting, Donovan isn’t likely to depart from Gator-nation anytime soon.

#7. Joakim Noah
-#1 pick last year? A fool for not going? No. He’ll make his money and he has two national titles. Forget all the degree talk though. Please. As for Noah’s skills, I’m not sure what the hoopla was all about. He has zero offensive game, outside of tip-ins and screaming transition dunks. He rebounds pretty well, but not any better than a Paul Millsap (2006 2^nd-rounder) or Dominic McGuire (2007 late-1^st rounder, in my opinion). Sure, he’s got a lot of heart and loves to win…but he won’t be an NBA talent. He won’t develop an outside shot, as Horford has begun to do quite well, and lacks any physicality (there’s that word again). He cowered away from Oden and won’t bang with the big boys. It was a lot of fun blocking shots from George Mason and a softer UCLA team (don’t act like they were intensely physical last year). Ironically enough (especially with Julian Wright still sticking as a Jayhawk…for now) it seems that Noah could be drafted anywhere from #3 to #7. What can I say to that? I don’t like. A quick peak back into draft talk…my roommate calls Hansbrough the next Mark Madsen (a little ridiculous, although he has called so many people its unreal, including…pre-draft for all of them–Monta Ellis, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Manu Ginobili, and Nenad Kristic– says he’s “like a Varejao, minus the hustle and lot more growl.”). I’ll say 8 and 5 for a shorter than 6-year career. Hate? SURE!

#8. One Shinning Moment
-Overall grade for the tournament: D. Hate? Nope. Name the great moments? Maynor over Duke. Lewis over Xavier. Jeff Green over Vandy. Florida’s repeat. Georgetown’s comeback. Maybe for half of those. No true buzzer-beat, no true Cinderella, inconsistent refing, sloppy CBS coverage in-studio and behind the mic, and a real lack of superstar play. The Final Four was a relative bore with a so-so title game. They can’t all be great…but the last few years haven’t been much fun. We all love March Madness…yet it hasn’t been so maddening as of late.

#9. Top 5
-Memphis selects Greg Oden. Boston picks Kevin Durant. Milwaukee selects Joakim Noah. Charlotte takes Brendan Wright. Phoenix, via Atlanta, steals Al Horford. There’s your top 5, as I see it, right now. Julian Wright can muck this up quickly.

#10. Final Thoughts
-No, I won’t be lame enough to make a 2008 prediction. I did take Florida over OSU in the pre-season…but what does that mean anyways? {I had UCLA and UNC rounding out my useless pre-season Final Four). I had Florida as my national champ on my sheet of integrity (beating UCLA and UNC, who would’ve beaten A&M). In the end, it’s been a solid 2007 for college basketball. Conference tournaments were pretty solid, the VCU-upset was amazing for me, and Selection Sunday (despite no Cuse somehow) was a lot of drama to build up to. A lot of props needs to go to Pay for his amazing work prepping brackets, running play-by-play, and bringing home rock solid analysis. It takes a lot of hard work to make up for my ranting and rambling.

This closes out my college basketball talk for the next few months.

Nevertheless, plenty of good stuff looms: NFL Draft, NBA Playoffs, MLB kicking off, and the NBA Draft. Not to mention a certain Tradition Unlike Any Other..

Until next time…

The Ultimate National Championship Preview: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
by Chris Clement

To be honest, I’m not very excited about tonight’s national title game. Sure the “fan” in me wants to be pumped (reminding myself that this is far from a shoe-in victory for the defending champion Gators). Ironically enough, such a point was vastly proven by the same two schools, just different squads, a little over three months ago (when the Gators football team decimated the seemingly outgunned, outhustled and overrated Buckeyes). Unfortunately, that game was a stinker after the first two possessions and this one may follow a similar suit.

So below, I’m going to mark down a couple thoughts, a little analysis, a prediction or two, and perhaps, something that doesn’t resemble soft whimpering and gentle crying…all for you.

We’ll call it my five keys for a good game…or an eventual blow-out.

Oden’s Fouls

It’s too bad we can’t give Greg Oden ten fouls. Perhaps, Al Horford could be called for an offensive foul once or twice as he backs down people like a lumberjack tackling a redwood. Ditto for Noah and his phantom pivot feet and the lack of any traveling calls against them. One could say the same for Conley Jr., often neglected for being punished for constantly palming the ball (then again, who doesn’t these days?) or Jamar Butler’s often wild and erratic reaches on defense. Either way, Greg Oden can’t get into foul trouble on Monday Night. He might be able to pick up that second foul in the first half, but it had better be in the closing minutes when he needs to rest. With Noah/Horford/Richard out there, Thad Matta can’t survive long with guys like Hunter and Terwilliger trying to man-up against the Gator big men.

Can Oden stay out of foul trouble and be effective against the Gators' frontline?
Courtesy: Celebopedia

Guard Play

Taurean Green is the heart and soul of this Gator championship squad. If you disagree, then I doubt your validity as a college expert. While the big men and Corey Brewer get all the accolades and Lee Humphrey is destroying nets around the country, when Green is on, the Gators are great. Whether its dishing out assists in traffic, hitting key threes as teams attempt rallies against his Gators, or stifling defense in the half-court trap, Green makes these Gators go. Mike Conley Jr. will be a much better pro, but he will see everything a point guard should mean to his team on Monday Night. Talk to William Avery about what Khalid El-Amin showed him back in '99. No, it wasn’t paternity suits, but calculated and team-oriented guard play. As for the other Buckeyes, Jamar Butler must continue consistent inside/outside play and be prepared to run himself ragged on Monday night. Lee Humphrey isn’t very athletic, so there is a chance to keep an eye on him. But even a brief hesitation, and the ball is suddenly through the net. Be physical with him and get him thinking about a few early misses…and he becomes a different player. He won’t put the ball on the floor nearly as often as he should. While Green struggled despite a Gator victory, the same was true – much more surprisingly – for Buckeye 5^th-year senior Ron Lewis. Let me make no beefs about it: Ron Lewis cannot struggle on Monday night. No chance.

Green: Must re-establish form that got Gators to Atlanta
Courtesy: Rivals.com

Coaching

I try not to publicize them about too much, but Donovan was as savvy a coach as the Final Four had to offer (3-0 in national semifinal). He has his team in the perfect mindset. They know they are the best team on the floor and their task is to remind you of that each and every time. These guys know how important repeating sounds. What’s more important is winning the championship this year. As for the Buckeyes, Matta has gotten every last inch out of a young, talented team. While he can’t teach Oden in less than 48 hours how to avoid foul trouble, we will see how effectively he can work the refs by balancing calls made – or not made – on the bigs of both teams. That alone may decide his team’s fate more than their play.

Is a repeat in the cards? Is Billy D off to Lexington?
Courtesy: CBS4, Viacom

December 23^rd, 2006

It doesn’t matter. Sure, Florida decimated the youthful Buckeyes 86-60 in Gainesville. But neither team will turn to that tape anytime soon. Horford played – when every media report said he was out (typical) – and Oden has barely walked on the court by that point. The Buckeyes are much more confident and a more grounded team. The scariest thing though is this - Florida is better. Much better. The Gators don’t go deep, but they’re deeper now than they were then. Either way, even if Florida spanks the Buckeyes on Monday night, it won’t be because of December 23^rd, 2006.

Conley Jr.: Has gotten just a bit better since December 23
Courtesy: Indianapolis Star

X-Factors

Something unexpected usually needs to go right for a team – or wrong for their opponent – when a national title is delivered. As a 'Cuse fan, Kueth Duany’s early double-digits were an unwelcomed sign that aided us to an early 18-point lead. The same could be said for the play of Anderson Hunt, 29 points in the ’90 title win, that led to his Final Four MOP award for the Runnin’ Rebs of UNLV. Ditto for Mike Dunleavy’s 21 points in their 2001 title-victory over Arizona and so on and so forth. All of these guys were talented – some more than others, of course – yet all of them made unexpected impacts. Who could these new people be tonight? I’m not going to try and guess. Except for mentioning one name, David Lighty of Ohio State.

Alright, that’s all I got. I’m hoping for a good game…but not crossing my fingers. I’ll say Florida by a dozen-or-so right now, while rooting heavily for the Buckeyes to return the upset to the Gators side.

If Florida does win, that’d be both collegiate championships that really matter to most – basketball and football – and the first back-to-back titles since Duke (which would be a blessing in itself to push aside).

Either way, I'm hopeful that it’ll be more fun than it appears it’ll be.

I’ll throw out some reactions on Tuesday one way or another…so until then.

Saturday Night Live...Tournament Talk

...South Region...
#2. Memphis vs. #1. Ohio State [aka And 1 Mix-Tape Team vs. More than just Greg Oden's Team]

A track meet to say the very least, Coach Calipari's Tigers gave Matta's Buckeyes just about everything they could handle for 34 minutes. During the final six minutes of action, the Buckeyes all but ran the Tigers out of the gym defeating second-seed Memphis 92-76. All four number one seeds still have the potential to match up in Atlanta.

Despite early foul trouble for 7-footer freshman phenom Greg Oden (nothing new in this tournament thus far), Mike Conley Jr./Ron Lewis/DaQuean Cook kept the Ohio State University within punching distance of the athletic, speedy Tigers. Despite lights-out first-half three point shooting (7-10 for the Tigers), foul trouble plagued them down the stretch. Between Andre Allen's (who played quite poorly) and injured (or so we were told) Chris Douglas-Roberts' 5 fouls apiece, the Tigers lacked the slashing and kick-out ability to find consistent shooting down the stretch. 4th-year senior Jeremy Hunt was impressive from the field, 26 points, but lacked enough scoring counterparts to take down the sharp-shooting Buckeyes.

When Oden was in, he was downright dominant. 17 points, 9 rebounds, and a key 3-point play were just the highlights of another impressive performance from the oft-heralded freshman. Returning with four fouls mid-way through the second-half, Oden help spark a key 20-8 run that allowed the Buckeyes to assume a commanding double-digit lead.

Hitting their final sixteen free throws was only icing on the cake for the Buckeyes, reaching their first Final Four since the Michael Redd-led 1999 team. Ironically enough, that team's appearance has been erased from the records due to violations. With this Buckeye team locked into one of the spot's in Atlanta, we will be able to see one of the best freshman trios in recent memory with Oden/Conley Jr./Cook. Only question that remains is who will they be matched up against???

...West Region...
#2. UCLA vs. #1. Kansas [aka Afflalo/Shipp are TWINS vs. Runnin and Gunnin Jayhawks]

One of the more interesting defensive-minded matchups of the entire tournament thus far (nearly a combined 30 steals), the Bruins and Jayhawks battled to the very end for the second spot in the 2007 Final Four. Despite a torrid start, Kansas rarely had a string a successive offensive possessions. Fortunately for Bill Self's squad, their defense was up to the challenge of the UCLA motion offense. At least during the first-half...

UCLA, often labeled as lacking offensive firepower, hit countless key shots late extremely late in the shot clock. Whether it was Afflalo or Collison, the Bruins seemed to have little trouble hitting daggers from beyond the three-point line despite being covered heavily by Jayhawk defenders. Extending their lead from 4 (half) to 11 early in the second half, the Jayhawks could never pull any closer than 5 for the rest of the game.

The 68-55 UCLA victory over Kansas was led throughout unsurprisingly by their savvy backcourt duo of Pac-10 Player of the Year Arron Affalo (24 points) and this year's best surprise out West Darren Collison (14 points and four clutch late free throws). Shooting 53% from the field was a nice surprise, yet in the end it comes as no surprise that UCLA was anchored by Howland's typical suffocating perimeter defense. It's no surprise many experts, including yours truly, believe that Coach Ben Howland has his Bruins playing better than last year's National-Runner Up Squad. Perhaps a re-match with Florida is only a week away (the Gators match up with 3-seed Oregon tomorrow afternoon).

The typical 18 points from Brandon Rush paced Kansas; however, Julian Wright (only 8 points) was a shred of his usual self. Kansas was limited inside the paint throughout the game, lacked consistent outside shooting, and often began pushing the ball in-and-out during their possessions until the final 10-12 seconds of the shot clock. Despite avoiding the first-round upset that plagued them in the previous two years (remember Bucknell and Bradley?), the Jayhawks have to be disappointed in not reaching the Final Four with perhaps the nation's deepest and most talented lineup.

Nevertheless, the Bruins march on and have impressively moved on from the loss of All-American guard Jordan Farmar to make a return trip to the Final Four in 2007.

UNC/Georgetown & Florida/Oregon tomorrow. Let's see if the chalk prevails...

Thursday Night Tournament Previews...

...Pay is tackling the West [Chalk Region] and I'll be handling the South Region...

West Region Game #1:

Kansas (1) vs. Southern Illinois (4)

Southern Illinois have shed the mid-major like Gonzaga has. After six straight trips to the big dance, two of which have led to Sweet 16 visits, the Salukis are a major college basketball program. Kansas aren't expecting some lucky slouches to be across the court. In the last two tournaments, the Jayhawks have been snakebitten by mid-majors. They know fully well that Southern Illinois is the 3rd-best defensive scoring team (56.1 ppg) in Division I, while SIU is cognizant of Kansas' terrific offensive team buoyed by great depth - both hitting its stride in March. It will be a battle of the guards; however, the potential absence of Salukis forward Matt Shaw (sprained ankle sustained Friday night vs. Holy Cross) may allow Kansas to work the ball inside to Wright, Jackson, and Arthur. If the Salukis are to pull this one out, they will have to take an early lead and consistently make shots from beyond the arc with Falker getting his share on the blocks, as the Jayhawks are always due for a quick scoring run regardless of the opposition.

Players to Watch: Tony Young [Southern Illinois] and Sherron Collins [Kansas]

Moment of Truth: How will the team who falls behind by double digits react to the intensity and momentum of the opposition? If SIU gets up by 15, don't expect a swift comeback by Kansas as they did twice against a young Texas squad. If Kansas gets up by 15, it will have meant that the Salukis gave up more than 60 points.

West Region Game #2:

#2. UCLA vs. #3. Pittsburgh

For all intents and purposes, I doubt this one will be pretty to watch. Plain and simple, UCLA's lack of that one extra big men has been exploited this month. The question remains: can Aaron Gray exploit that deficiency? Given his inconsistency since the ankle injury and the proverbial eggs he's laid in big games, Pittsburgh will need lots of help from Mike Cook and the versatile Levon Kendall. Expect Darren Collison to be stifled by Pittsburgh's stingy defense, but do the Panthers have an answer for Arron Afflalo. We see him and the effort of Mbah a Moute getting UCLA into the regional final. (Note: I did not mention the coaches or Howland's daughter)

Players to Watch: Josh Shipp [UCLA] and Levon Kendall [Pittsburgh]

Moment of Truth: When the teams return to the court after halftime, who will hit the big shots before the 16-minute media timeout? My bets are on Afflalo and Shipp. Ramon, Fields, and Graves need to shoot well from the perimeter in order to pave the way for Gray, Cook, and Kendall inside.

South Region Game #1:
#2. Memphis vs. #3. Texas A&M
-This is going to be a knock-down, drag-out boxing match. It’s going 15 rounds and both teams are going to be left battered, bruised, and beaten. Question is: who survives in the end to advance to the Elite Eight? Sure, I picked A&M…but I also grossly underestimated the outside shooting of the Tigers. Calipari seems due for a Final Four one of these years at Memphis, but I wonder if this team has the poise to match clutch shots and key decisions from the likes of Acie Law IV? Perhaps the best clutch player in the tournament, Law exhibits the self-control and fluidity to dominate games in the closing minutes.

Players to Watch: Antonio Anderson [Memphis] & Dominique Kirk [A&M]
Moment of Truth: How Douglas-Roberts’ ankle reacts to the first break in the game. Will he be able to tape it tight enough to last? I honestly have zero idea. What I do know is that without their star backcourt go-to-guy, it’ll be awfully tough for Memphis to survive this all-out battle.

South Region Game #2:
#1. Ohio State vs. #5. Tennessee
-Most of us remember their past encounter on January 18th (68-66 Buckeye victory in Columbus)…especially Oden’s dominant double-double. Yet, Bruce Pearl’s squad is much more under the radar this year than last (when they seemed to be an easily identifiable overrated #2-seed); yet always seem mortal with their customary slow starts to most games. Chris Lofton, as talented as any player in the country, has to be on…and I mean really on. It’ll take over 50% shooting and at least 20-25 points for the Vols star for his squad to grind it out against the Buckeyes. Memo to the Vols: Don’t let Oden stay in the paint the entire game. It’s imperative he be forced to move around and reach a few times for errant balls, perhaps committing that deadly 4th foul before the 8 to 10 minute mark. As for the Buckeyes, they have to guard the perimeter much tougher than they did against Xavier and must allow Oden to get through the typical early cobwebs and then sit back and ride their star 7-footer into the Elite Eight.

Players to Watch: Ron Lewis [Ohio State] & Dane Bradshaw
[Tennessee]
Moment of Truth: Tennessee needs its role players to step up just as they did against the Cavs down the stretch. Bradshaw, a little too quiet thus far in the tournament, may be exposed on defense by the quicker, athletic Buckeyes. Or so Ohio State thinks. It’ll be interesting to see how Tennessee matches up on D and tries to avoid off-the-dribble screens and slashes.

Can another freshman lead his team to the Final Four?
Step 3 of 4 begins around 10pm tonight for Greg Oden.

Play-by-play is a 50/50 tonight. But either way, enjoy the night's matchups...

Running Commentary for Saturday's Games

Note: Clement stepping in for Pay...just for today.

2:00 pm Late start after a late lunch for me. Ohio State leading 29 to 25 at the half. Ugly shooting to open the game with both teams under 25% in the opening ten minutes. Oden out of foul trouble at the moment; however, he's clearly rushing shots and appears frustrated on offense.

2:45 pm Xavier on a furious run of incredible shot-making. They are leading 55-44 and the first #1-seed is officially on the ropes. Oden with 4 fouls and now it's time for Conley Jr./Lewis/Cook and co. to start making smart shots or the #1 team in the country is TKO'd.

3:14 pm Ron Lewis just capped an incredible comback by the Buckeyes with a 3-pointer with 2 seconds to go to tie the game at 62. Should they have fouled him before he released the near 27-footer? Overtime is upon us...

3:30 pm Following an early Musketeer basket, Conley Jr. drains an open three for the first of his 11 overtime points, 7 of which were unanswered, to give the Buckeyes the lead and the eventual win. The Buckeyes escape Lexington and are the first official entrant to advance to the Sweet 16, despite a valiant effort from the kids at Xavier.

5:00 pm – Things may be getting chippy between the Terps and Bulldogs in the second half. Both teams flopping quite a bit. Meanwhile, A&M and Louisville tied at 28-28 at the half in a quiet game.

5:23 pm – Horrid charging call on DJ Strawberry with 39 seconds to go, preventing the Terps a golden opportunity for a tie. Maryland decided not to foul, Graves with a beautiful pass but a missed three. However, Butler grabs the loose ball and is fouled with less than 4 seconds left. 1 of 2 free throws are made. Crone tips an in-bound and then a second in-bound, with less than .7 left, results in a loose ball that Jones can’t corral. Butler advances to the Sweet Sixteen in one of the better second-round games of the past few tournaments. Time to turn out attention to the Cardinals & Aggies

5:50 pm – A&M leads 50-46 with Law (19) and Kirk (14) battling Sosa (22) as we enter under 12-minutes. Georgetown just tipped with BC and ditto Vandy/Wash. St.

6:00 pm – VCU tips off with Pitt finally. Early baskets for Aaron Gray and BA Walker.

6:20 pm – They’ve called it “snowy” Buffalo a sickening amount of times. Kevin Harlan terrible on the mic as usual. Not having the package from DirecTV is brutal. A&M trails Louisville with 1 minute to go 69-68. Far too many whistles all game long, consistent or not. BC has taken the lead for the first time on G-Town 24-21 under 6 minutes. VCU trails 24-17 as their lack of size and strength is apparent today.

6:25 pm – Deep three missed from Sosa and a Pompay loose ball rebound ends up in Law’s hands with 1.7 seconds left. Not the best three attempt from Sosa that hits the front of the rim. Law IV sinks the first free throw. 71-69. Second one coming. No timeout left for Louisville. A few subs enter. Second free throw is good [26 points for Law now]. Sosa’s heave from half-court is no-good as it hits the top of the backboard. A&M advances to the Sweet Sixteen to face the winner of Nevada/Memphis on Sunday.

6:30 pm – Pitt looks real strong against VCU, who after a 5-8 start is 2 of their last 15 from the field. Pitt takes a 29-19 lead with a little over 5 minutes to go. Poor subs by Grant and a lack of execution on offense seems apparent. Shuler’s deep three cuts it to 7. BC leads Georgetown 30-26 at the half [Dudley with 10 and Rice with 12 while Hibbert and Green have 2 fouls each] AND Washington State, behind Low's 10 points, with a 33-25 halftime lead.

6:48 pm - VCU completely outsized and outmatched by Pitt, who leads 41-26. Rebounding is decidedly with the Panthers who are shooting well over 50%. Grant can't find a quick-fix and hot-headed Maynor had an early technical. He won't allow bigger name schools to push him around, even though the refs always do to mid-majors not named Gonzaga. Meanwhile, VCU is stangnant with the ball shooting 31% (including 2-9 from 3-point territory). Aaron Gray has been solid and Pitt has been very physical inside the paint. Fameni is clearly affected with the broken nose and mask. VCU will need a miracle second-half run to have any chance of not losing by double-digits at this rate.

7:33 pm – Status check: Georgetown holding on against BC 54 to 52 with 3 minutes to go. Vanderbilt trails Washington State 59 to 57 with 2 and change. Pitt had the lead at 19 and it is now 13 after Graves picks up his fourth foul at the 10:10 mark. VCU needs key plays and shots from its backcourt and to continue its successful press. Huge miss by BA Walker after a steal. Kendall playing extremely well.

7:40 pm – Byars with a contested layup miss and Washington State has the ball in a 60-60 game with 24.1 left. Washington State hasn’t scored a field goal in over 7 minutes. VCU trails 10 at the under-8 timeout with Maynor shooting 2 free throws. Georgetown has pulled away from BC with 14 seconds left.

7:41 pm – Georgetown victorious 62-55 and advances to the Sweet Sixteen. Weaver stone-cold bricks a top-corner three with 3 seconds to go for WASU. Byars calls a timeout and the officials are searching to find how much time is on the clock. Vandy should get a second for a final prayer before overtime.

...things get a little crazy here with both games...

7:43 pm - Maynor strokes two free throws and its 58-50 with 6:45 left. Pitt returns with 4 straight to push it back to 12. Time is running OUT for the Rams. 0.5 seconds left for Vandy and the pass sails out of bounds after brief contact with a Cougar. OVERTIME.

7:50 pm – 5 minutes to go and an 11-point Pitt lead. Pellot-Rosa deep three takes it down to 8. 5 seconds again called against Pitt. They aren’t saved by a 'timeout-call' this time. 4:46 left. BA for 3 and its 63-58. Harlan finally acknowledges VCU talent outside of Maynor (who is struggling mightily).

7:58 pm – Tie game in Sacramento. Vanderbilt and Washington State tied at 60. 8.7 seconds to go and its Commodore basketball. My sleeper pick is oh so close to a big upset tonight. Turnover to the Cougars on the in-bound and an amazing block by Byars on a layup attempt the other way! Oh my! 1.2 seconds left for Vandy at mid-court. Could we be at double-overtime? Shades of Gonzaga/Arizona from 2003 are dancing through my head. Timeout Vandy.

7:59 pm – Pellot-Rosa with a crazy reverse layup. Might’ve turned an ankle. Pitt up only 3. Meanwhile, Vandy almost turns the ball over. GREAT no-call. How much time is left? 0.01? Sloppy work. Byars almost worked a foul call. But again, a great no-call by the refs (no Al Thornton-esque moments needed). VCU on a 30-14 run when it was once 51-32.

8:00 pm - BA Walker pulls up with an amazing deep three from the top of the key. If it was Pitt, Harlan would’ve said, “Right between the eyes!” TIE-GAME! TIE-GAME! 67-67 at 1:40 off of another turnover. Oh My Oh My! Anthony Grant is HYPED to say the very least.

8:03 pm – Double overtime for Vandy and Washington State. Instant Classic in the works…

8:04 pm –Chants of “VCU” finally emanating from the crowd. Maynor brings the ball up…

8:05 pm – Pellot-Rosa with a man’s rebound and a stronger put-back. RAM LEAD by 2. Sam Young pretty breakaway layup to tie it, the press got bit. Just like against Duke with Nelson. Shucks. 47 seconds left. Ram ball. Panthers pick up loose ball with 19 off a Pellot-Rosa 3-point miss. Sloppy and rushed shot. Dang. 10 seconds. Foul call with 2 seconds left. Minor contact after the shot. Odd call. Check that: bad call. 2 shots. Anderson blocked it before the foul. Tough tough call with 2 ticks left against Pellot-Rosa who got a little hand after the ball was released and the shooter was comin' down. VCU would’ve had a breakaway, potentially 3 on 1. Imagine. Just imagine if the call went against a Duke, UNC, Syracuse, or UCLA. Imagine the ATTENTION it might get…

8:06 pm – First shot is no good. Second shot…no good as well! Pitt offensive rebound. Jump ball call, it seems as the clock expires. Overtime…apparently. Apparently. Pitt wants 0.2 seconds or so on the clock. Refs checking the clock. Overtime it is.

8:11 pm – Vanderbilt upsets Washington State 78 to 74. A 3-seed is down. Could another be on the way? Probably not, but we’ll watch, hope, and pray anyways…

8:12 pm - Pitt up 4. Fields with the craziest of threes. You knew it would go in with the clock down to 3 and a wild shot being ready to be flung from behind the arc. Pro Pitt-commentators ecstatic for him. Dixon looks so unnerved on the sidelines still.

8:15 pm – Fameni tanks a 18-footer. Horrid execution. Things are getting scary near the 2-minute mark for VCU. Will Pitt score on every OT possession? Ramon 3. Pitt is unstoppable in OT thus far. Up 7 at78-71. Figures. Figures…

8:20 pm – MSU tips off with UNC. Beware of the evil that is Izzo.

8:21 pm –VCU is desperate to say the least. Layup by Pellot-Rosa with 1:15 left to cut it to 5. Pitt breaks the press as we go under a minute.

8:23 pm – Shot clock ticking down. Maynor rebound and down to Shuler. Down 3 at 80-77 off of a Shuler layup off of his own miss. Commercial time. “This is our country” Chevy commercials plagued the NFL Playoffs and continue now. I’d do a lot of harm to the advertising team who created this slogan. I honestly would.

8:25 pm –Pellot-Rosa was scoreless in the 1^st half. He has 17 in the second half. Anderson foul on Young. He bricks the first. Can VCU back out? Possession arrow to VCU. Second free throw…missed. Maynor with a pretty layup after driving to the hoop with relative ease. 1-point game with 22.6 left. I wonder if a kickout-3 might've been more effective, despite all the time. Very close to a steal with 4 guys surrounding Cook. Correct foul call. Pitt up 1 at 80-79. Foul after a good press attempt, Cook drains the first. Kendall can’t look…he’s on the bench b/c he fouled out. Chicken. Second free throw…is good. 3-point game. 19.1 left. Now they make them...

8:26 pm – Brick from Walker at the top of the key. Anderson tips it out near half-court, somehow to a Pitt player and over two Rams it appeared. Foul on Walker. It’s over. Walker’s shot just wasn’t right. I wish Pellot-Rosa had a look, as Walker off of the screen isn’t as strong as Walker straight-up or Jesse creating his own shot.

8:29 pm – Young back at the line. Makes the first and second. 5-point game. Somebody call LJ. And whoever fouled him. Miss by Walker. Pitt in the Sweet Sixteen. VCU better be a top 5 story of the tournament. Check that, top 3.

8:30 pm - One day mid-majors will get the benefit with better non-calls. That foul call at the end of regulation should’ve led to a block and a fast break for VCU. I will never forget that 30/70, not 50/50 call, going against us. I may be the only one. And if you think I’m bitter…I’ll monitor you closely for every close call you pine for after a game. Whoever you are.

8:48 pm - Great 3-point play by Hansbrough. He's going to get eaten for lunch with his post moves and shoulder leans in the NBA. Especially from Dwight Howard. Nevertheless, it's definitely working at UNC. 36-31 with both teams shooting well. Spartans 5-9 from 3-point land. UNC still seems a lock tonight with this pace. The Texas/USC winner has a ton of conditioning to do with Lawson upcoming. UCLA is about to get underway, I believe. Late tip to say the VERY least. See you at halftime...

9:04 pm - UCLA tips off with Indiana as they trade baskets. Meanwhile, UNC 41-33 at the half. Hansbrough with an IMPRESSIVE 19 points. Wow.

9:58 pm - UNC and Michigan State going back and forth. Lawson is lightning quick and the Spartans have a ton of guys in foul trouble. Meanwhile, Neitzel with a crazy drive to the hoop to get a 1-point lead. This feels a lot like Arizona/Gonzaga, especially with Dick Enberg calling the game, in 2003. I reference that twice today. State leads 59-58.

10:30 pm - Just too much NC late as they power past the pesky Spartans 81-67. Strong games for Hansbrough and Lawson. Just about everyone, outside of UNC & USC fans are hoping for Durant and co. to get past USC. I think...

11:00 pm - Despite a near miraculous comeback, Indiana falls short to UCLA mostly due to their own doing. Several missed free throws, a terrible turnover down 2 with 30 ticks left, and poor three-point shots took the Hoosiers down. UCLA 54 to 49 over Indiana. Night ova!