Sweet Sixteen: Questions without Answers...yet (Part I)

Upcoming will be two days and four posts.

You might hear more from me - or Pay - otherwise; however, I'm going to ride my tournament momentum and address a few issues on the upcoming weekend of regional semi-finals and finals.

Midwest = Mid-day Monday (aka BELOW)
West = Late Monday

East = Early Tuesday
South = Mid-to-late Tuesday

Midwest Region:
#9 Northern Iowa vs. #5 Michigan State

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Northern Iowa QUESTION: Michigan State is battle tested. While Kalin Lucas' health is far from stable, that can't matter to the Panthers. Question is: how do the Panthers avoid a slow start, in both halves, and get this game closer to being in the 70s than the 50s?


Northern Iowa X-FACTOR: This team is ridiculously well-coached. They value possessions, aren't intimidated by the number of All-Americans on another roster, and have the STONES necessary to make clutch shots. They won't underestimate the Spartans. Count on it.

Panther I'm Watching: Ali Farokhmanesh. Aka STONES. As if there was any doubt, right? If you want to become the next Stephen Curry, a letdown can't occur here. Early shots may go in or out, but it's play down the stretch that will determine if his name becomes one of second-weekend folklore or another first-rounder who only gets 15 minutes of fame.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Michigan State QUESTION: With Kalin Lucas likely OUT and Chris Allen relegated to going 4 minutes due to injury against Maryland; question is, does Michigan State have enough scoring power for 40 minutes of basketball?

Michigan State X-FACTOR: I know it seems repetitive, but one of the reasons I picked Michigan State to BEAT Kansas (and will Northern Iowa, I think) is Tom Izzo. Players have to execute, and Izzo may be the best pure coach left in the field. In 15 years at East Lansing, Izzo has a national championship (200) and is one away from a half-dozen Final Four appearances. He will have his team prepared and pumped, regardless of who is on the roster. Michigan State converted on a late possession due to the talent of their players and the preparation done by their coach. Key word, as always, for Izzo: focus.

Spartan I'm Watching: While plenty of eyes will (justifably) be on PG Korie Lucious, I'm going to watch and see how Raymar Morgan, a frontcourt senior, handles a lot of big bodies and attention in the paint. If he can attack the glass, while staying out of foul trouble, Sparty has a much better chance to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

#6 Tennessee vs. #2 Ohio State

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Tennessee QUESTION: A lot of people easily dismissed the Vols several times this season. Myself included. After the dismissal of star Tyler Smith, it was way too easy not to do so. Even if they beat Kansas and Kentucky (both at home), they also suffered losses to Georgia and USC. Nevertheless, Bruce Pearl has the Vols in the Sweet Sixteen for the third time in four years. Question is: can the Vols finally break through to the Elite Eight after previous letdowns?

Tennessee X-FACTOR: Statistically speaking, the box scores from the Vols' first 2 games don't leave much to be desired. They didn't shoot lights out, take care of the ball particularly well, hit a ton of 3s, or dominate the boards. Nevertheless, they go 10, and sometimes 11, deep. Can the Vols use their depth to pluck a primary scorer or defender to give the Buckeyes fits?

Volunteer I'm Watching: I've been talking about Wayne Chism for years, so I won't stop now. If Tennessee can establish a presence inside, that won't force Hopson or Prince to go basket-for-basket with Evan Turner (who can light up a stat sheet). Chism must avoid chippy fouls and convert inside 8-feet. Easier said then done for the inconsistent senior.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Ohio State QUESTION: Evan Turner is the heart and soul of this team. Duh. Even when he's not at his best making shots, he can pick apart opponents by drawing double teams (or more) and rebounding the ball extremely well at his position. Question is: how good can Ohio State be in this tournament when Turner puts everything together?

Ohio State X-FACTOR: Thad Matta is a proven postseason entity. Bruce Pearl is as well...but to a lesser extent. Pearl has done the best job of his career (thanks for the insight, Pay) this season. The same might be said for Matta. While he's reached a National Championship before, he's balanced riding a star player (Turner), who was injured for 2 loooong weeks, and helped develop considerable talent alongside him. If you had Ohio State contending for a national championship back in late 2009, you're smarter than I am.

Buckeye I'm Watching: Jon Diebler shoots 3s. A lot of them. He also shoots 3s a LOT better at home than he does on the road or at neutral locations. Against UCSB he was lights out (7-12), despite being under the weather. Against Georgia Tech he was an admirable 4-10. If he can find a similar touch - that is, over 40% - and is able to hit 5+ shots from behind the arc, it will open up massive lanes for Evan Turner and David Leighty, causing havoc on the Tennessee interrior defense.

See you all later tonight for the West regional...

March Madness & the National Title Game: Closing Thoughts

Well, it should come as no surprise to any serious college basketball fans that the Florida Gators took home the 2007 National Championship. A lot of office pools will be checking tie-breakers as the chalk, meaning the Gators of course, stood firm.

By now, you should know the majority of their accolades: first repeat champions since Duke in 91-92, first ever starting 5 to repeat, and the first SEC team to repeat since Kentucky back at the half-century mark in the 1900s.

What you will soon know, being that I watched every second of the game so I could sound like I know what I was talking about, were some of my other tournament and NCAA-related observations. I’ll call them my 2007 NCAA Tournament Top Ten. Clichéd…yet simplistic enough to work.

#1. RE-PEAT
-Picked by the majority of pundits, myself included, this Gator squad was the most talented team from start to finish this season. Sure they encountered their typical SEC-hiccups, yet the Gators always played their best game against their best opponents. While some felt the tournament selection committee rewarded them too highly, perhaps solely on the merits of being the defending champs, with the easiest region and the overall #1-seed…the Gators took out two of the best teams the nation had to offer once they left the South Regional [UCLA & Ohio State].

#2. Fab Five
-The new “Fab Five” took out the “Thad Five”, never allowing their lead to dip any closer than 6 points in the final 30+ minutes of the game. While the Buckeyes never let things get out of control, Florida never seemed to sweat or shift into any sort of panic mode. Al Horford was a master in the blocks, Corey Brewer had an electric first-half on both sides of the ball, Taurean Green hit two daggers to restore double-digit leads as he paced the Gators throughout the second-half with steady & heady play, and Lee Humphrey excelled from behind the arc (as he always seems to do). Even the guy’s ridiculous air ball lead to a pivotal three-point play (typical, isn’t it?) As for Mr. Noah, I’ll handle him a little later. And it won’t be very kind.

#3. #1 Pick
-Anyone who doesn’t want to draft Greg Oden at #1…is a moron. I love Kevin Durant as much as anyone, but you NEVER pass up the opportunity to draft a backend center…no less one WHO WANTS TO PLAY CENTER. Tonight’s loss by the Buckeyes has ZERO to do with Greg Oden. I won’t hear any arguments about him lingering back on top-of-the-key screens either, as Buckeyes guards never fought through them enough and Thad Matta obviously had that idea planned (which is surprising with the three-point shooting prowess of the Gators). You want numbers from a freshman? 25 points [10-15 fgs], 12 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He had several ferocious dunks and several monster blocks (the block on Brewer would’ve given Gus Johnson a hernia and a heart attack). Unfortunately, while it wasn’t his intent, a lot of the blocks ended up back in Gator hands and led to eventual crippling buckets. Let’s not forget the 38+ minutes he logged either. Try that at 7-foot and nearly 270 lbs. Greg Oden will leave Columbus with nothing to be ashamed of. I will however be calling out his teammates…next.

#4. The “Others”
-No, this isn’t Lost. Instead, it’s me calling out a few choice-Buckeyes. While I understand this team is young, several key Buckeye players were completely absent from the world’s greatest stage. Yes, the limelight often gets the best of a lot of people. Especially since your first time is typically your only time. Ask Francisco Garcia, Jeff Green, Joey Graham, and a few others what the Final Four can do to you. Jamar Butler just plain stunk up the Georgia Dome tonight. He shot 1-7 from the field, with only a late prayer going in, and was nowhere near the inside of the net on any of his deep shot attempts. His defense was consistently lagging (that’s being friendly too) and I felt Matta made a key mistake not inserting Lighty or Cook, even for a brief stint, earlier in the game. Ron Lewis penetrated well and made some nice transition dunks, but was absent the entire Final Four. He never worked off of a screen and seemed unable to square up to the hoop. I was thoroughly disappointed in the 5^th-year senior’s performance these past two games. Othella Hunter could use some tip drills…but he’s young and a little soft still. While Mike Conley Jr. dodged early foul trouble, he definitely got a peak into what a point guard should be for his team from Taurean Green (as I noted in my preview, ahem). Conley Jr., whether he stays or goes, will be an incredible talent…but was clearly the second best PG on the court tonight.

#5. Backing Down
-There are ways to effectively post-up and then back down your opponent. Want to see how to do it? Watch Larry Johnson at UNLV in the early 90s. Watch Sean May at UNC (especially that title-game performance vs. Illinois). Watch Will Thomas, last season, at George Mason. You bring your body into your defender, absorb the pressure, wait for them to take a step back, and then lean into their body and balance your way into a 3-4 foot tip-in or jump-hook shot. Al Horford doesn’t do this. He backs you down, and I admire the physicality, and drops a shoulder deep into you. Chris Richard lowers the boom. Noah is afraid to do it when you realize you can stop him by holding your ground. Of course the refs didn’t decide this game, but after seeing plenty of highlights (and talking to Pay), the Butler game definitely showed why Horford will have to develop a new back-down method in the NBA. You can’t even do that against a bench-big in the pros.

#6. Coaching
-We don’t talk much about coaches at PHSports and I’m sticking to that…mostly. Except that Thad Matta has done a masterful job recruiting at Ohio State and has the program a year or two away from being that consistent top-1o performer they were this year and most of last. As for Billy Donovan…stay at Florida. Kentucky is enticing, but it isn’t worth leaving what you have in Florida. Big men are easy to pluck in the Sunshine State and you have job security for life. For life. While Kentucky’s numbers and legacy are daunting, Donovan isn’t likely to depart from Gator-nation anytime soon.

#7. Joakim Noah
-#1 pick last year? A fool for not going? No. He’ll make his money and he has two national titles. Forget all the degree talk though. Please. As for Noah’s skills, I’m not sure what the hoopla was all about. He has zero offensive game, outside of tip-ins and screaming transition dunks. He rebounds pretty well, but not any better than a Paul Millsap (2006 2^nd-rounder) or Dominic McGuire (2007 late-1^st rounder, in my opinion). Sure, he’s got a lot of heart and loves to win…but he won’t be an NBA talent. He won’t develop an outside shot, as Horford has begun to do quite well, and lacks any physicality (there’s that word again). He cowered away from Oden and won’t bang with the big boys. It was a lot of fun blocking shots from George Mason and a softer UCLA team (don’t act like they were intensely physical last year). Ironically enough (especially with Julian Wright still sticking as a Jayhawk…for now) it seems that Noah could be drafted anywhere from #3 to #7. What can I say to that? I don’t like. A quick peak back into draft talk…my roommate calls Hansbrough the next Mark Madsen (a little ridiculous, although he has called so many people its unreal, including…pre-draft for all of them–Monta Ellis, Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, Manu Ginobili, and Nenad Kristic– says he’s “like a Varejao, minus the hustle and lot more growl.”). I’ll say 8 and 5 for a shorter than 6-year career. Hate? SURE!

#8. One Shinning Moment
-Overall grade for the tournament: D. Hate? Nope. Name the great moments? Maynor over Duke. Lewis over Xavier. Jeff Green over Vandy. Florida’s repeat. Georgetown’s comeback. Maybe for half of those. No true buzzer-beat, no true Cinderella, inconsistent refing, sloppy CBS coverage in-studio and behind the mic, and a real lack of superstar play. The Final Four was a relative bore with a so-so title game. They can’t all be great…but the last few years haven’t been much fun. We all love March Madness…yet it hasn’t been so maddening as of late.

#9. Top 5
-Memphis selects Greg Oden. Boston picks Kevin Durant. Milwaukee selects Joakim Noah. Charlotte takes Brendan Wright. Phoenix, via Atlanta, steals Al Horford. There’s your top 5, as I see it, right now. Julian Wright can muck this up quickly.

#10. Final Thoughts
-No, I won’t be lame enough to make a 2008 prediction. I did take Florida over OSU in the pre-season…but what does that mean anyways? {I had UCLA and UNC rounding out my useless pre-season Final Four). I had Florida as my national champ on my sheet of integrity (beating UCLA and UNC, who would’ve beaten A&M). In the end, it’s been a solid 2007 for college basketball. Conference tournaments were pretty solid, the VCU-upset was amazing for me, and Selection Sunday (despite no Cuse somehow) was a lot of drama to build up to. A lot of props needs to go to Pay for his amazing work prepping brackets, running play-by-play, and bringing home rock solid analysis. It takes a lot of hard work to make up for my ranting and rambling.

This closes out my college basketball talk for the next few months.

Nevertheless, plenty of good stuff looms: NFL Draft, NBA Playoffs, MLB kicking off, and the NBA Draft. Not to mention a certain Tradition Unlike Any Other..

Until next time…

The Ultimate National Championship Preview: Florida Gators vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
by Chris Clement

To be honest, I’m not very excited about tonight’s national title game. Sure the “fan” in me wants to be pumped (reminding myself that this is far from a shoe-in victory for the defending champion Gators). Ironically enough, such a point was vastly proven by the same two schools, just different squads, a little over three months ago (when the Gators football team decimated the seemingly outgunned, outhustled and overrated Buckeyes). Unfortunately, that game was a stinker after the first two possessions and this one may follow a similar suit.

So below, I’m going to mark down a couple thoughts, a little analysis, a prediction or two, and perhaps, something that doesn’t resemble soft whimpering and gentle crying…all for you.

We’ll call it my five keys for a good game…or an eventual blow-out.

Oden’s Fouls

It’s too bad we can’t give Greg Oden ten fouls. Perhaps, Al Horford could be called for an offensive foul once or twice as he backs down people like a lumberjack tackling a redwood. Ditto for Noah and his phantom pivot feet and the lack of any traveling calls against them. One could say the same for Conley Jr., often neglected for being punished for constantly palming the ball (then again, who doesn’t these days?) or Jamar Butler’s often wild and erratic reaches on defense. Either way, Greg Oden can’t get into foul trouble on Monday Night. He might be able to pick up that second foul in the first half, but it had better be in the closing minutes when he needs to rest. With Noah/Horford/Richard out there, Thad Matta can’t survive long with guys like Hunter and Terwilliger trying to man-up against the Gator big men.

Can Oden stay out of foul trouble and be effective against the Gators' frontline?
Courtesy: Celebopedia

Guard Play

Taurean Green is the heart and soul of this Gator championship squad. If you disagree, then I doubt your validity as a college expert. While the big men and Corey Brewer get all the accolades and Lee Humphrey is destroying nets around the country, when Green is on, the Gators are great. Whether its dishing out assists in traffic, hitting key threes as teams attempt rallies against his Gators, or stifling defense in the half-court trap, Green makes these Gators go. Mike Conley Jr. will be a much better pro, but he will see everything a point guard should mean to his team on Monday Night. Talk to William Avery about what Khalid El-Amin showed him back in '99. No, it wasn’t paternity suits, but calculated and team-oriented guard play. As for the other Buckeyes, Jamar Butler must continue consistent inside/outside play and be prepared to run himself ragged on Monday night. Lee Humphrey isn’t very athletic, so there is a chance to keep an eye on him. But even a brief hesitation, and the ball is suddenly through the net. Be physical with him and get him thinking about a few early misses…and he becomes a different player. He won’t put the ball on the floor nearly as often as he should. While Green struggled despite a Gator victory, the same was true – much more surprisingly – for Buckeye 5^th-year senior Ron Lewis. Let me make no beefs about it: Ron Lewis cannot struggle on Monday night. No chance.

Green: Must re-establish form that got Gators to Atlanta
Courtesy: Rivals.com

Coaching

I try not to publicize them about too much, but Donovan was as savvy a coach as the Final Four had to offer (3-0 in national semifinal). He has his team in the perfect mindset. They know they are the best team on the floor and their task is to remind you of that each and every time. These guys know how important repeating sounds. What’s more important is winning the championship this year. As for the Buckeyes, Matta has gotten every last inch out of a young, talented team. While he can’t teach Oden in less than 48 hours how to avoid foul trouble, we will see how effectively he can work the refs by balancing calls made – or not made – on the bigs of both teams. That alone may decide his team’s fate more than their play.

Is a repeat in the cards? Is Billy D off to Lexington?
Courtesy: CBS4, Viacom

December 23^rd, 2006

It doesn’t matter. Sure, Florida decimated the youthful Buckeyes 86-60 in Gainesville. But neither team will turn to that tape anytime soon. Horford played – when every media report said he was out (typical) – and Oden has barely walked on the court by that point. The Buckeyes are much more confident and a more grounded team. The scariest thing though is this - Florida is better. Much better. The Gators don’t go deep, but they’re deeper now than they were then. Either way, even if Florida spanks the Buckeyes on Monday night, it won’t be because of December 23^rd, 2006.

Conley Jr.: Has gotten just a bit better since December 23
Courtesy: Indianapolis Star

X-Factors

Something unexpected usually needs to go right for a team – or wrong for their opponent – when a national title is delivered. As a 'Cuse fan, Kueth Duany’s early double-digits were an unwelcomed sign that aided us to an early 18-point lead. The same could be said for the play of Anderson Hunt, 29 points in the ’90 title win, that led to his Final Four MOP award for the Runnin’ Rebs of UNLV. Ditto for Mike Dunleavy’s 21 points in their 2001 title-victory over Arizona and so on and so forth. All of these guys were talented – some more than others, of course – yet all of them made unexpected impacts. Who could these new people be tonight? I’m not going to try and guess. Except for mentioning one name, David Lighty of Ohio State.

Alright, that’s all I got. I’m hoping for a good game…but not crossing my fingers. I’ll say Florida by a dozen-or-so right now, while rooting heavily for the Buckeyes to return the upset to the Gators side.

If Florida does win, that’d be both collegiate championships that really matter to most – basketball and football – and the first back-to-back titles since Duke (which would be a blessing in itself to push aside).

Either way, I'm hopeful that it’ll be more fun than it appears it’ll be.

I’ll throw out some reactions on Tuesday one way or another…so until then.