Sweet Sixteen: Questions without Answers...yet (Part I)

Upcoming will be two days and four posts.

You might hear more from me - or Pay - otherwise; however, I'm going to ride my tournament momentum and address a few issues on the upcoming weekend of regional semi-finals and finals.

Midwest = Mid-day Monday (aka BELOW)
West = Late Monday

East = Early Tuesday
South = Mid-to-late Tuesday

Midwest Region:
#9 Northern Iowa vs. #5 Michigan State

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Northern Iowa QUESTION: Michigan State is battle tested. While Kalin Lucas' health is far from stable, that can't matter to the Panthers. Question is: how do the Panthers avoid a slow start, in both halves, and get this game closer to being in the 70s than the 50s?


Northern Iowa X-FACTOR: This team is ridiculously well-coached. They value possessions, aren't intimidated by the number of All-Americans on another roster, and have the STONES necessary to make clutch shots. They won't underestimate the Spartans. Count on it.

Panther I'm Watching: Ali Farokhmanesh. Aka STONES. As if there was any doubt, right? If you want to become the next Stephen Curry, a letdown can't occur here. Early shots may go in or out, but it's play down the stretch that will determine if his name becomes one of second-weekend folklore or another first-rounder who only gets 15 minutes of fame.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Michigan State QUESTION: With Kalin Lucas likely OUT and Chris Allen relegated to going 4 minutes due to injury against Maryland; question is, does Michigan State have enough scoring power for 40 minutes of basketball?

Michigan State X-FACTOR: I know it seems repetitive, but one of the reasons I picked Michigan State to BEAT Kansas (and will Northern Iowa, I think) is Tom Izzo. Players have to execute, and Izzo may be the best pure coach left in the field. In 15 years at East Lansing, Izzo has a national championship (200) and is one away from a half-dozen Final Four appearances. He will have his team prepared and pumped, regardless of who is on the roster. Michigan State converted on a late possession due to the talent of their players and the preparation done by their coach. Key word, as always, for Izzo: focus.

Spartan I'm Watching: While plenty of eyes will (justifably) be on PG Korie Lucious, I'm going to watch and see how Raymar Morgan, a frontcourt senior, handles a lot of big bodies and attention in the paint. If he can attack the glass, while staying out of foul trouble, Sparty has a much better chance to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

#6 Tennessee vs. #2 Ohio State

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Tennessee QUESTION: A lot of people easily dismissed the Vols several times this season. Myself included. After the dismissal of star Tyler Smith, it was way too easy not to do so. Even if they beat Kansas and Kentucky (both at home), they also suffered losses to Georgia and USC. Nevertheless, Bruce Pearl has the Vols in the Sweet Sixteen for the third time in four years. Question is: can the Vols finally break through to the Elite Eight after previous letdowns?

Tennessee X-FACTOR: Statistically speaking, the box scores from the Vols' first 2 games don't leave much to be desired. They didn't shoot lights out, take care of the ball particularly well, hit a ton of 3s, or dominate the boards. Nevertheless, they go 10, and sometimes 11, deep. Can the Vols use their depth to pluck a primary scorer or defender to give the Buckeyes fits?

Volunteer I'm Watching: I've been talking about Wayne Chism for years, so I won't stop now. If Tennessee can establish a presence inside, that won't force Hopson or Prince to go basket-for-basket with Evan Turner (who can light up a stat sheet). Chism must avoid chippy fouls and convert inside 8-feet. Easier said then done for the inconsistent senior.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Ohio State QUESTION: Evan Turner is the heart and soul of this team. Duh. Even when he's not at his best making shots, he can pick apart opponents by drawing double teams (or more) and rebounding the ball extremely well at his position. Question is: how good can Ohio State be in this tournament when Turner puts everything together?

Ohio State X-FACTOR: Thad Matta is a proven postseason entity. Bruce Pearl is as well...but to a lesser extent. Pearl has done the best job of his career (thanks for the insight, Pay) this season. The same might be said for Matta. While he's reached a National Championship before, he's balanced riding a star player (Turner), who was injured for 2 loooong weeks, and helped develop considerable talent alongside him. If you had Ohio State contending for a national championship back in late 2009, you're smarter than I am.

Buckeye I'm Watching: Jon Diebler shoots 3s. A lot of them. He also shoots 3s a LOT better at home than he does on the road or at neutral locations. Against UCSB he was lights out (7-12), despite being under the weather. Against Georgia Tech he was an admirable 4-10. If he can find a similar touch - that is, over 40% - and is able to hit 5+ shots from behind the arc, it will open up massive lanes for Evan Turner and David Leighty, causing havoc on the Tennessee interrior defense.

See you all later tonight for the West regional...

InClement Weather: Opening Round Reactions [Part I of II]

I don't like text limits. That being said, I'm using them today. All day. Seriously. No, seriously.

Saturday afternoon update: Villanova leads UCLA 44-31 at the half. Role reversal for both teams. Nova trailed 10 on Thursday night to American and UCLA led VCU (tear) by 10. Sometimes I wonder if Villanova is better off with Scottie Reynolds on the bench. I also wonder if everyone is better off without Jay Bilas commentating.

Meet the new "stockbroker" America.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Midwest Region

Louisville defeats Morehead State 74-54. The Cardinals allowed the pesky play-in-game winners to stick around in the 1st half; however, too much talent and too much athleticism won out.

Siena took down Ohio State 74-72 in double overtime. The debate continues: should you or should you not foul a team down 3 with under 10 seconds to go?

Arizona "upsets" Utah 84-71. If you're ever looking for a first-round upset, always target the most talented 12-seed from a major conference (see: Villanova last season).

Cleveland State throttled Wake Forest 84-69. Perhaps the best team out of the Horizon (seriously), this is the same team that won in the Carrier Dome earlier this year. Wake Forest hasn't been right for 2+ months, this shouldn't have been a major shock.

Dayton took out West Virginia 68-60. I'm now allowing any injury-excuses for the Mountaineers, Bob Huggins and this group straight-up underachieved in this region. Props to the Flyers.

Kansas beat North Dakota State. Ben Woodside was a lot of fun to watch. Kansas is NOT a lock to easily take out Dayton; yet, with every win they get more and more dangerous.

USC stormed past Boston College 72-55. Maybe a lot of the "experts" picked USC a year too early. Yet again, the (middle of the) ACC has no established tempo and has the game dictated by their opponent.

Michigan State hardly breezes past Robert Morris. The motivation of playing in Ford Field may not be enough; however, this Spartan team might just need to win by any means possible (despite how ugly it looks).

West Region

No offense to Charles Abouo, but it won't be so easy for A&M to suffocate Thabeet and Adrien on Saturday.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

UCONN dismantled Chattanooga 103-47. Jim Calhoun is a brilliant coach, but why has he missed 3 tournament games over his career?

Texas A&M defeated BYU (again) 79-66. 1) Why did this have to be a repeat matchup? 2) How often do teams lose when they make their first 10 shots?

Purdue held on against Northern Iowa 61-56. The Boilermakers are a popular sleeper pick, but will need a far better second half on Saturday to survive and advance.

Washington defeated Mississippi State 71-58. I think a few too many people overestimated the Bulldogs and underestimated the Huskies. Mistake!

Marquette outlasted Utah State 58-57. Their second win without James, the Golden Eagles aren't going to be able to keep up with the Tigers without a spectacular individual effort from Jerel McNeal.

Missouri outpaced Cornell 78-59. If the Tigers can start their games a little hotter from the field, this is the darkhorse of the region far too few are talking about.

Maryland beat California 84-71. Anyone who depended on a Mike Montgomery-coached team...sit down. Vasquez talks just as much as Devendorf, and I love it!

Memphis fought back to defeat CSU Northridge. Tyreke Evans is an uber-talented kid, but can he realistically lead a team to the Final Four?

A Preview Ahead...

UCONN matches up against Texas A&M. The Aggies may need to make their first 10 shots again to keep up with the Huskies. Calhoun should be back in action and the gameplan has to focus around limiting open shots for Josh Carter. If the Aggies want to pull the upset, attack Thabeet and hope for foul calls. Meanwhile, the Huskies need Jeff Adrien to establish himself early and wear down the A&M frontline.

Purdue and Washington could likely put up one of the most competitive matchups of the second round. Purdue started rock solid and then ended with a thud against Northern Iowa. That won't be acceptable today. Washington can win this game if they develop an inside-outside attack. The key to that is the play of PG Isaiah Thomas, who can't shoot 3-13 from the field again.

Maryland draws a wounded Memphis team who can't be underestimated, despite a very poor effort in the opening round. Tyreke Evans must limit fouls - on both sides of the ball - and involve his teammates early. For the Terps, Vasquez will have the be Superman - perhaps to the tune of a near triple-double - and play within his emotions. The Terps will need their role players to control weak side rebounds and hit open shots. Maryland needs an A+ effort to advance to the Sweet Sixteen; especially if Memphis doesn't return with their D game.

Tomorrow, Marquette and Missouri meet up. This was a highly entertaining OT game in 2003, the last time these two teams met up in the NCAA Tournament. Marquette has four guys who can carry the scoring load; however, they still aren't the same team without their senior PG James. Meanwhile, Missouri must value possessions by blending good shots and offensive rebounding. It's hard to outwork a team like Marquette. With such tremendous balance on offense for both teams, a star may need to rise above everyone else for either team to advance.

Enjoy today's action. We'll be back later with Part II.