Sweet Sixteen: Questions without Answers...yet (Part I)

Upcoming will be two days and four posts.

You might hear more from me - or Pay - otherwise; however, I'm going to ride my tournament momentum and address a few issues on the upcoming weekend of regional semi-finals and finals.

Midwest = Mid-day Monday (aka BELOW)
West = Late Monday

East = Early Tuesday
South = Mid-to-late Tuesday

Midwest Region:
#9 Northern Iowa vs. #5 Michigan State

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Northern Iowa QUESTION: Michigan State is battle tested. While Kalin Lucas' health is far from stable, that can't matter to the Panthers. Question is: how do the Panthers avoid a slow start, in both halves, and get this game closer to being in the 70s than the 50s?


Northern Iowa X-FACTOR: This team is ridiculously well-coached. They value possessions, aren't intimidated by the number of All-Americans on another roster, and have the STONES necessary to make clutch shots. They won't underestimate the Spartans. Count on it.

Panther I'm Watching: Ali Farokhmanesh. Aka STONES. As if there was any doubt, right? If you want to become the next Stephen Curry, a letdown can't occur here. Early shots may go in or out, but it's play down the stretch that will determine if his name becomes one of second-weekend folklore or another first-rounder who only gets 15 minutes of fame.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Michigan State QUESTION: With Kalin Lucas likely OUT and Chris Allen relegated to going 4 minutes due to injury against Maryland; question is, does Michigan State have enough scoring power for 40 minutes of basketball?

Michigan State X-FACTOR: I know it seems repetitive, but one of the reasons I picked Michigan State to BEAT Kansas (and will Northern Iowa, I think) is Tom Izzo. Players have to execute, and Izzo may be the best pure coach left in the field. In 15 years at East Lansing, Izzo has a national championship (200) and is one away from a half-dozen Final Four appearances. He will have his team prepared and pumped, regardless of who is on the roster. Michigan State converted on a late possession due to the talent of their players and the preparation done by their coach. Key word, as always, for Izzo: focus.

Spartan I'm Watching: While plenty of eyes will (justifably) be on PG Korie Lucious, I'm going to watch and see how Raymar Morgan, a frontcourt senior, handles a lot of big bodies and attention in the paint. If he can attack the glass, while staying out of foul trouble, Sparty has a much better chance to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.

#6 Tennessee vs. #2 Ohio State

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Tennessee QUESTION: A lot of people easily dismissed the Vols several times this season. Myself included. After the dismissal of star Tyler Smith, it was way too easy not to do so. Even if they beat Kansas and Kentucky (both at home), they also suffered losses to Georgia and USC. Nevertheless, Bruce Pearl has the Vols in the Sweet Sixteen for the third time in four years. Question is: can the Vols finally break through to the Elite Eight after previous letdowns?

Tennessee X-FACTOR: Statistically speaking, the box scores from the Vols' first 2 games don't leave much to be desired. They didn't shoot lights out, take care of the ball particularly well, hit a ton of 3s, or dominate the boards. Nevertheless, they go 10, and sometimes 11, deep. Can the Vols use their depth to pluck a primary scorer or defender to give the Buckeyes fits?

Volunteer I'm Watching: I've been talking about Wayne Chism for years, so I won't stop now. If Tennessee can establish a presence inside, that won't force Hopson or Prince to go basket-for-basket with Evan Turner (who can light up a stat sheet). Chism must avoid chippy fouls and convert inside 8-feet. Easier said then done for the inconsistent senior.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Ohio State QUESTION: Evan Turner is the heart and soul of this team. Duh. Even when he's not at his best making shots, he can pick apart opponents by drawing double teams (or more) and rebounding the ball extremely well at his position. Question is: how good can Ohio State be in this tournament when Turner puts everything together?

Ohio State X-FACTOR: Thad Matta is a proven postseason entity. Bruce Pearl is as well...but to a lesser extent. Pearl has done the best job of his career (thanks for the insight, Pay) this season. The same might be said for Matta. While he's reached a National Championship before, he's balanced riding a star player (Turner), who was injured for 2 loooong weeks, and helped develop considerable talent alongside him. If you had Ohio State contending for a national championship back in late 2009, you're smarter than I am.

Buckeye I'm Watching: Jon Diebler shoots 3s. A lot of them. He also shoots 3s a LOT better at home than he does on the road or at neutral locations. Against UCSB he was lights out (7-12), despite being under the weather. Against Georgia Tech he was an admirable 4-10. If he can find a similar touch - that is, over 40% - and is able to hit 5+ shots from behind the arc, it will open up massive lanes for Evan Turner and David Leighty, causing havoc on the Tennessee interrior defense.

See you all later tonight for the West regional...

Underrated's Last 10 Seasons

Am I short changing the Spartans too easily? Perhaps.
Not like it hurt me with UNC's last outing though.
Nevertheless, let's take a peak at the past ten national championship games and see how similar trains of thought would've fared.

And yes, I am calling some #1-seeds pretty heavy favorites over other #1-seeds (see: 2007). Why? Because I'll back it up.
We're not talking about many, or any, coin flips here.

All odds courtesy of Statsheet.com. (NA=Not available)
The covers, well they don't need a source unless you're brain dead.
God bless the Internet.

2008 - Kansas vs. Memphis (-1.5)

Commentary: The first time four-#1 seeds had ever reached the Final Four, the earliest lines fluctuated from a pick'em to Memphis by as many as 2. This may, in fact, be as close to an actual pick'em as we've seen in the past 10 (or 1, if you wanna be a smartass) championship matchups. It should come as no surprise that the game was competitive, that it went to overtime, and that nobody would've been legitimately surprised with either team winning. Although it must be noted that Memphis seemed to have the game locked up. Key word: seemed. Perhaps this doesn't help or hurt the theory. Which probably makes it more negative than positive. Moving along...

2007 - Florida vs. Ohio State (NA)

Commentary: Despite being a #1-seed, having the future #1-overall pick (Greg Oden), and a fellow top-5 pick in Mike Conley Jr., the Buckeyes were big time underdogs to the defending national champion Gators. While Oden had plenty of dunks down low, Florida controlled nearly from start to finish. The Gators entered the tournament heavy favorites and the overall #1-seed. What resulted was a 84-75 victory that was never truly in question. Score one for the overwhelming favorites.

2006 - Florida (-1.5) vs. UCLA

Commentary: Avoiding a few early scares - namely against Georgetown - Florida breezed past Cinderella-story-of-the-century George Mason into the national championship game. Ditto for UCLA, who spanked LSU to give us one of the most borish Saturday nights in recent memory. While the Bruins had tradition, Ben Howland's defensive genius, and a talented backcourt (led by a guy named Farmar), Florida's starting 5 dominated from start to finish, defeating the Bruins with ease 73-57. A few West Coast-homers wondered if Howland had turned UCLA back into a national champion years earlier than expected. They're still waiting. Another W for the favorites...and the Gators.

Note: By the way, I still contend Vegas pushed this line so close to a pick'em in order to cash in HEAVILY with UCLA-homers. Which they did, by the way.

2005 - North Carolina (-2) vs. Illinois

Commentary: Clearly the best two teams in the country all season long, the Tar Heels were looking to help head coach Roy Williams secure his first national championship. While Illinois had plenty of talent - particularly in its backcourt (Williams & Brown) - the Tar Heels were stacked with lottery talent of their own (3, to be exact), including a guy taken over CP3 and Deron Williams (that's Marvin!). Despite a late surge from the Illini, the Heels cut down the nets for the 4th time in school history. Notice a trend? The upsets just aren't coming. No matter how close they came.

2004 - UConn vs. Georgia Tech (NA)

Commentary: Despite the heroics of Will Bynum throughout the tournament, there is NO realistic bet I would've taken, no odds friendly enough, for me to believe UConn was losing this game. Maybe if Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor tripped over each other on the way out of the tunnel and each tore their ACL...then we might've talked. In a game that had everything to do with a dominating double-digit lead, UConn ended up winning by 9 - by the way, this was as large of a 9-point victory as I can remember - 82-73. The Jackets had zero chance, folks. The overwhelming favorites never sweated for a moment.

2003 - Syracuse vs. Kansas (-5)

Commentary: Admittedly, I'm more than a little biased. Admittedly, I didn't pick Syracuse to advance past their national semi-final of the Final Four (I had them losing to my national champ, Texas). Admittedly, the media shortchanged this roster filled with one senior and a ton of underclassmen. Admittedly, Carmelo Anthony was far-and-away the most talented player on the court (sorry Collison and Heinrich). Admittedly, Jim Boeheim had lost twice before in the Superdome; having his heart broken, by a guy with the last name of Smart, in 1987. Admittedly, Kansas was favored, by 5 points. Admittedly, Syracuse was picked to lose by a similar margin to two other Big XII teams in the Elite Eight (Oklahoma) and National Semi-Final (Texas). Admittedly, this is the most satisfying single victory of my "fandom" career. Admittedly, this result doesn't help my theory much. Admittedly, this result doesn't hurt my theory much either.

2002 - Maryland (-7.5) vs. Indiana

Commentary: Indiana nearly tripped up against a guy named Blizzard and the Seahawks of UNC-Wilimgton in the second round; however, it was the near collapse against Duke that garnered all the headlines. It's also fun to note that they had to beat 10-seeded Kent State - with Antonio Gates on the frontline - to make the Final Four. Mike Davis led the upstart Hooisers as far as he could, losing to a talented, poised, and savvy Terrapins squad that seemed predestined to avenge the mistakes and heartbreaks of 2001. And so they did. Indiana hung around as best they could, but like he always did, Juan Dixon (leading the charge with a 22-8 to run to close out the game) was simply just too good. The Terps took home their first ever national championship, defeating the storied Hoosier program - sans Bobby Knight, of course - 64-52. This Terps team may be the most underrated national champions of the (young) century. Yep, the favorites won again, with relative ease too!

2001 - Duke (-3.5) vs. Arizona

Commentary: I didn't give this Arizona team nearly enough respect as it entered the tournament (shocker!). They only defeated #1-seeded Illinois in their regional final and then the defending national champs, Michigan State, to advance to Monday night's finale. Meanwhile, the Dookies were absolutely STACKED. Names like Battier, Williams, and Dunleavy should ring a few horrific memories. They even overcame a 39-17 deficit to defeat their ACC rivals, Maryland, in their national semi-final. Lauren Woods was in his 11th year with the Wildcats; however, it wasn't enough. Despite making an impressive run mid-way through the second-half, the lottery-stacked Dookies prevailed 82-72. Typically when Dook enters a title game as a favorite, they win. Typically. The trend is all but FACT over the past ten championships, isn't it? Oh yeah, my friend John Brady, cried at the end of this game. I don't blame him one bit, especially as a devoted Terps fan.

2000 - Michigan State (-4) vs. Florida

Commentary: The Flynt-stones weren't as hobbled as the announce team wanted you to believe (even Mr. Cleaves) and the Gators, an upstart 5-seed, weren't an adequate enough match for the nation's finest team. The Spartans had everything working for them. Funny thing is, Zach Randolph still wasn't on this team. Many of these players were a part of three-straight Final Fours andall 12 on the roster have rings after an 89-76. When a Tom Izzo-coached team scores 89, they're going to win. When a team is favored in the National Championship Game, they're likely to win too!

1999 - UCONN vs. Duke (-9)

Commentary: Now here we go. Let's not discount the talent on UConn. This was a team more than a great head coach (insert: Calhoun) and a star-in-the-making (insert: Rip Hamilton, tourney MOP might I add). In fact, they were #1-ranked an extra week (10 to 9) over the Dookies. They had the memorable moment (which often seems necessary to memorable title runs) too; with Hamilton breaking the hearts of UDub fans with his fading-fade away against the Huskies. I'll admit that I didn't give the Huskies much of a chance. Duke had a sensational roster - led by Elton Brand - and a coach with two titles in his back pocket. What resulted - in a Final Four played in Tampa of all places - was one of the few upsets in recent memory, with UConn winning 77-74. Not nearly as shocking as a 15 over a 2, but most people still penciled in the Dookies for their 3rd National Championship. This proves it's a trend/theory and not fact. But could it just be the outlier we need to remove? Could it???

In the end, I'm still picking the Tar Heels by a LOT. But maybe there is proof in this pudding.
JELLO PUDDING!!!

11 National Championship Game Questions

10 would be too cliche and 12 would be too much. So what do we do? 11!!!

If the Spartans want a realistic chance, exit Thabeet and insert Hansbrough in this picture.
Easier said than done, Clement.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) The oddsmakers have UNC as 7 1/2-point favorites. Which side are you on?

2) Which Tar Heel will walk out MOP with a win: Lawson, Hansbrough, Ellington, or Green?

3) Which Spartan will walk out MOP with a win: Lucas, Morgan, Sutton, or Lucious?

4) Which coach is most likely to earn a third, not just second, national championship?

5) Is this UNC team (Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, Green) better than 2005's (May, Felton, McCants, M. Williams) national championship team?

6) What is the largest halftime deficit the Spartans could realistically overcome? Is their a deficit too large for the Heels?

Izzo better have a Calhoun-type lock on the refs if his team can avoid Lawson drawing double-digit fouls on the entire depth chart of Michigan State.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

7) I hate to say it, but could an injury to Lawson's toe (which seems as close to 100% as possible) be the best shot for the Spartans?

8) How large of an upset would the Spartans pull if they can go Giants over Patriots in a championship game "rematch"? In the span of ten years, is this potential storied upset most comparable to 1999's UConn over Duke (Dookies favored by 7, in case you forgot)? Do you have a better one?

9) Whose 3-point shooting is more important to their team winning? Is there a method to forcing Ellington into early misses in Izzo's playbook?

10) Will this game need an extra session like last year's title game (Kansas vs. Memphis)?

11) Mario Chalmers moment-time. Down 3, and you have the ball, with less than 10 seconds to go. Is Lawson or Lucas passing or taking the shot themselves? (Better question: is either coach calling for the foul?)

I hope all these answers are, in fact, answered. However, I remain Dr. Skeptismo.
We'll hopefully get more from Pay tomorrow - and perhaps myself - as tipoff approaches.
As for my score prediction...let's just say I have one team by 25+. I see shades of Duke/UNLV in '90, not '91.

That should say plenty. And yes, I'm saying the all-time largest margin of victory may be in danger.

Beware Tark. That record may be in trouble. Seriously.
Admittedly, this cover is MUCH better.
Credit: CNNSI.com

InClement Weather: Final Four Harsh Realities

In case you didn't know, none of us have to suck up to anyone when we post.
Often we post with our hearts over our heads (okay, this is the "royal we" as in me, or I), but we also don't pull punches in order to keep people reading.

Those who still do read us (thank you!) know this by now.

With that in mind, the Final Four tips off in a little over 2 hours and I have 10 things you need to know about EACH game.

#1. UConn @ #2. Michigan State [6:07 p.m.]

I don't expect Walker and the Huskies to be down very often today. Not at all.
Credit: LATimes.com

1) Yes, I declared this a road game for the Huskies. It won't matter though. It'll be the equivalent of them playing in MSG @ St. John's. They won't be fazed one bit.
2) Playing these, or any, tournament games in gigantic football stadiums is lame beyond belief. The court looks ridiculous, I keep waiting for a terrible injury on a hustle play out of bounds on the sideline, and the idea of charging over $100 a ticket to sit a mile away is a joke.
3) Jim Calhoun is not a moral coach. However, he's a winner. Guess which one of those most fans and alumni want? Me included.
4) Tom Izzo is so short it's bordering on evil.
5) I don't know if I see a star pro on Michigan State. I do, however, on UConn with Thabeet, Walker, and (maybe) A.J. Price.
6) If Michigan State wants to win, they have to use up every foul possible in order to foul out Thabeet. It only took the Orange nearly 5 OTs to do it. Good luck, Spartans.
7) A.J. Price is a fantastic player. However, I don't think he can lead this team to two more victories and ultimately a national championship. Not without Jerome Dyson by his side.
8) Stanley Robinson is UConn's "Danny Green". As for the Spartans, they'll need at least 2 or 3 "Danny Green's" of their own to pull off the upset.
9) If Sutton can shoot a ridiculous number, perhaps 5 of 8 from behind the arc, than the Spartans can score - for a while, at least - with the Huskies.
10) UConn will do this evening what they've done EVERY game this tournament. They'll start red hot, clamp down early on the glass, and their opponent will only tease us with a few futile comebacks. I know Missouri had a brief lead, but the key word was brief. UConn is winning this game because of an edge in talent and a (very slim) edge in coaching. This won't be an entertaining game.

UCONN wins, 72-63.

Note: Pay is a long-time loyal Tar Heel fan. I know I sound a little "Jim Rome-esque" saying Tar Heel fan, but I am not calling out Pay. He's too smart of a fan not to realize what's at stake and how amazingly good his team's chances are.

#1. North Carolina vs. #3. Villanova

Yes, I'll be discussing the one known as Psycho T. Let the emotions fly!!!
Credit: MSV.com

1) What do these rankings mean anymore honestly? You tell me.
2) North Carolina is an overwhelming favorite in my mind. I mean by a HUGE margin, too.
3) I picked Villanova to emerge out of the East because of how they matched up against Pitt. I still would've given the Panthers a much better shot to take down the Tar Heels. Much much better.
4) Despite the previous two sentences, I don't hate Villanova. Not even close. They are, in fact, be one of the few non-Orange Big East teams I can stand rooting for. I just don't like this matchup for them at all.
5) If Wayne Ellington makes 2 of his first 3 shots, Jay Wright and his team are in serious trouble.
6) I previously wondered out loud - on more than one occassion - if Scottie Reynolds hurt this team more than he helped it. Clearly, I was wrong. And no, it didn't take a breathtaking 3/4 court drive for the game-winner to prove me wrong. That just helped.
7) Dante Cunnigham is in a bit of a mess today. Why? He loves that 16-18 foot jump shot; however, it doesn't take an analyst like John Thompson (whose said it all tournament long) to tell you that Cunnigham must dominate inside, rather than outside, if the Wildcats have the slightest chance tonight. Even if the jumpers start to fall early.
8) Pay brought up an excellent point via text. North Carolina has had a week to deal with "Villanova and the baseline". I typically give Roy Williams the benefit of the doubt with extra time. Especially if it's 5 days over 1.
9) Ty Lawson has become the face of North Carolina. That makes them much more likeable for people like me, who kinda cringe with Hansbrough. It's not because he hustles, he's white, or because he's a Tar Heel. It's because it just doesn't feel right. Much like the famed-celebration against the Hokies in last year's ACC tournament quarterfinals (after an amazing shot), the guy just irks most of us more than a little bit. True Tar Heel fans don't need to cry for him to be respected. The hate, or distaste, has everything to do with the realization of how hard he works, how talented he is, and how much our teams need a guy just like that. So take a deep breath Tar Heel fans, you - or your star player - don't have to be liked, admired, and respected by every one. Nobody should want that.
10) You come up with a scenario in which Villanova wins. A realistic one. And I don't mean losing by 1 or by 99. That doesn't matter. You come up with a scenario where the Wildcats, in '09 and not '85, advance. I honestly can't. And Tar Heels fans, don't give me a "scared prediction" because you don't want to predict a blowout.

North Carolina wins, 80-65.

In case you missed it...here it is again.

Saturday Afternoon Running Blog

Check out Pay's latest brackets.
Jim Calhoun haters, rejoice!!!

7:00 pm

The afternoon becomes the evening...

The health of Robbie Hummel is much more important than Purdue winning tomorrow afternoon.
It wouldn't hurt the Boilermakers though.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

* #1 UNC goes down to Florida State in a great game. Derwin Kitchen sinks two clutch free throws and Ellington/Green misfire on late three-point attempts. Two games to remember for Kitchen in back-to-back-days (see: game winning layup against Georgia Tech in the closing seconds). Toney Douglas ia an amazing talent; however, he's very fortunate to be surrounded by a rock solid sidekick. Fear not Tar Heel fans, you're going to get a #1 seed. Your team more than earned it. In fact, you'll still be in Greensboro. Start snapping up tickets soon.

* Meanwhile, the Seminoles will meet the Blue Devils of DOOK tomorrow afternoon. I just might post a few questions tonight to Pay concerning the ACC Tournament Championship. Although I gotta wonder out loud: how many Seminole fans thought they'd win the ACC Championship...in basketball. By the way, the Dookies won't get a #1-seed, even if they wack the 'Noles AND the Orange defeat the Cardinals in MSG. Why? Duke needed to beat UNC to get the 1-seed, despite an uber-impressive resume. Disagree?

* Michigan State lost out on their only chance at a 1-seed, further dare-I-say-guaranteeing Louisville a chance to secure a #1-seed tonight at MSG. Pitino's boys are HEAVILY favored. For good reason, too. Ohio State just moved up a line or two as well, far away from the bubble.

* Is LSU trying to get the SEC a third bid by losing to Mississippi State? No. Is LSU as likely a top seed as there is to be upset VERY early next weekend? Yes. No wait. YES! The Bulldogs will match up with the Vols, who may have ended the season for the Tigers of Auburn. Somewhere, Chris Porter isn't happy. I remain unfazed altogether about SEC basketball.

* Temple leads Duquesne 42-37 at the half. Both teams aren't "stealing" bids. Why? Because every team on the bubble has dug their own grave. Two times over.

* Purdue defeated Illinois, avoiding their third straight loss. That's as sexy as a one-liner you'll get from a Big Ten result.

* Missouri leads Baylor by 4 points at the half. It's fun watching the Bears pull upset after upset, unlike Georgia last season. That team was very very bad, while I believe Baylor is a good team.

* Arizona State leads USC by 15 at the break. While USC worked their way closer to the bubble, an ugly loss here proves that the Trojans aren't going to be "in".

* San Diego State is one of the roughest bubble teams to gauge I've seen in the last 3-4 years. They can avoid any conflict and a sleepless night if they upset the Utes of Utah tonight. Will they? No. Why? To make the life of the Selection Committee more difficult. Seriously? No. But it sounds better, doesn't it?

* Also out west, in the WAC, Utah State could become the first 27-win team to NOT make the tournament. How? They might lose the automatic bid to mainstay Nevada. What changed the Wolfpack's season? Please don't mention the ,"Coach's ejection that led to a Friday night Bracketbuster weekend against VCU and my boy Eric Maynor who was too tired to carry his entire team who stood around and watched him play and wouldn't step up and make even one shot on the road, although I'm glad they did; especially Larry Sanders in the CAA Championship Game." Call it a hunch, but I'm predicting a Wolfpack upset. Why? To be a pain in every bracketologist's butt. Sorry Pay.

* There's also that aforementioned primetime game involving the "Overtime Orange" and the talented Cardinals of Louisville. Terrance Williams is licking his chops; meanwhile, Johnny Flynn and Eric "K-Fed" Devendorf better be ready for another 40-minute dogfight. Or will it be 40-minutes plus? You decide.

Back later. Maybe Pay can interject more sensible bracket banter.

3:30 pm

Coach Cal and Memphis cut down their yearly nets at the Conference USA Tournament.
Might as well be called the "Memphis Tigers Challenge".
By the way, could Memphis inch closer to a 1-seed if Louisville was upset by the (insert: tired) Orange?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

* Mississippi State joined Baylor (Big XII) & USC (Pac-10) as "Georgia's of 2009", aka teams trying to "steal bids with spots in their respective championship games". Although let it be know that Georgia was horrific last year and their coach was going to be fired any second. The Bulldogs and Trojans largely underachieved this season, thus far.

Note: Nobody should feel bad for any of the bubble teams. Nobody - even the most bleeding heart Maryland fans (who remember, lost to UVA on Sunday) - will be robbed of a birth this year.

* Pay proves to me yet again why he's the "bracket master", proving to me why many experts - including himself - has Arizona (with 3 wins against Conference Champions - Washington, Kansas, & Gonzaga) outside the bubble.

* Tony Kornheiser can rejoice as Binghamton is in the big dance, via the American East automatic bid. I'm always happy when Vermont is absent.

* Memphis keeps on winning. By a lot. There should be no debate about them being a 1 or 2 seed. If they are tired of the disrespect Conference USA is getting, leave the conference or share the wealth of your recruiting classes.

* Ohio State is ending the argument for Michigan State to earn a #1-seed, leading the Spartans 69-58 during the under-4 timeout at Conseco Field House. The Buckeyes will also lock down a spot in the Big Dance, recently a 10-seed with a few lingering questions in today's bracket from Pay.

* Florida State and UNC are enjoying the game of the afternoon. Psycho T with a rare "frustration foul" to earn his 4th. He won't earn a 5th. Mark it down. Seminole fans have been asking for the calls to even out; however, the refs have been steady. Toney Douglas is a baller, folks. This kid could carry this underrated team DEEP into the tournament. Welcome Wayne Ellington to playing well in a big time game. Yes, the Heels are still sans-Lawson.

* Auburn and Tennessee are prepared to tip off. If the Tigers want to go dancing, they need to pull off the upset.

An Unbiased Sweet Sixteen Analysis…UNLEASHED!!! [Part Deux]

Pay and I have decided to stick with what works, revisiting last year’s Elite Eight format we enjoyed so much, as we deliver your Unofficial Unbiased Preview to the Sweet Sixteen.

Don’t worry. We aren’t afraid to tick off a few coaches, call out non-professional athletes, or let our gut reactions – not our corporate sponsors or contacts – decide our analysis and perhaps, a prediction or two.

Without further banter, let’s roll!

Thursday’s game get their pub yesterday, with Friday’s slate arriving today.

Midwest Region

Contrary to what some of the "majors" have failed to tell you, guys like Jason Richards (8 assists a click) are teammates of recent all-world baller Stephen Curry for the Davidson Wildcats.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#3. Wisconsin vs. #10. Davidson [Pay]

Here is one of the biggest misnomers in the NCAA Tournament: Davidson is a one-man team. Why? It’s because Jason Richards is one of the best point guards in the country. PERIOD. Additionally, the Wildcats have a host of players who The Rock would love, because they know their damn role. On the other side of the scorer’s table, Wisconsin brings a suffocating brand of defense that many thought during the season was symptomatic of the anemic offenses in the Big Ten. They thought wrong. While the Badgers are capable of scoring points, they prefer to slow it down. Chances are that if they are successful in that pursuit, they will be deemed victorious.

Players to Watch: Hmm, let me check. Oh yeah, Stephen Curry. Not only is he a classic tournament player who was not recruited by the big schools, he is one of the nation’s best ten players … as a sophomore. For an undersized shooting guard, Curry finds ways to get open, score and involve teammates against taller, stronger guards. As always, Jason Richards (8.0 apg) will be a vital role in making certain that Curry gets his looks. Of course, Michael Flowers and Travon Hughes have the grand responsibility of not only gloving both players while staying out of foul trouble, but also forcing action at the other end. Brian Butch, Marcus Landry and Joel Krabbenhoft almost always present matchup problems for opponents and can be a source of frustration for Thomas Sander, Andrew Lovedale and Boris Meno. This battle of the boards can be a game-decider.

Moment of Truth: When the Wildcats are inevitably down by double digits in the second half, what coaching decisions will Bo Ryan to prevent his men from being a self-fulfilling prophecy? If and when Stephen Curry gets hot, what adjustments will the Badgers make if Michael Flowers is unable to control the sophomore stud?

#1. Kansas vs. #12. Villanova [Clement]

Role players interchange as stars and vice-versa for the Jayhawks (i.e. Russell Robinson).
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Is a 12-seed from a power conference truly a Cinderella? Whether or not they reached the Sweet Sixteen or not, Villanova isn’t a true Cinderella story. However, they will be the second after they defeat Kansas. Of course, that isn’t very likely to happen. Despite our problems with their coach being able to win the big games, Kansas’s rosters is LOADED with shooting, athleticism and clutch play. In fact, they probably have pound-for-pound the most talented roster in the entire country. Fortunately for the Wildcats, this game is in Detroit and not Kansas City. At least, that’s working for them.

Players to Watch: Despite losing his size, the injury to Casiem Drummond won’t decide this game. More important to the Villanova attack is the play of their three guards (Reynolds, Cunningham, and Fisher). While their frontcourt has plenty of work to do against the able-bodied Jayhawks, the Wildcats will only go as far as their slashing and shooting guards can carry them. As for Rock Chalk, the Jayhawks have a trio of guards of their own (Chalmers, Collins, and Robinson) who need to take care of the ball, attack the basket at will, and keep up with the intensity of the aforementioned Wildcats. It’d be too much to ask for Scottie Reynolds to put up a Herculean effort to carry his team to the Elite Eight, right? Right?

Moment of Truth: The first eight minutes of the game are always important. Duh. However, Kansas would be well-served to jump out early and put their feet on the throats of the Wildcats. If Villanova can keep it close early – or perhaps take a lead or two – Jay Wright will be able to push the buttons he wants to on offense, rather than try and keep up with the high-scoring Jayhawks.

South Region

AJ Abrams will need to offer more than a helping hand to the Longhorns offensive attack.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#2. Texas vs. #3. Stanford [Pay]

Forget Texas’s perceived home court advantage. If Stanford wants to win it all, they will have to beat everyone. Everywhere. This is the furthest the Cardinal have gone in the NCAA Tournament since 2001 and head coach Trent Johnson isn’t about to make excuses. He only has two NBA-ready 7-footers who deny and/or alter all shots in the half-court set that are 12 feet and in. Not to mention, they can score the ball. For the “home” team, DJ Augustin paces the Longhorns and must lead the way in harassing opposing ball-handlers en route to disrupting the Cardinal’s lethal half-court offense. The question for me is wildly clear: Will someone please induce a full-court press against Stanford and force the Cardinal out of their comfort zone? Perhaps, this is a testament to what Mitch Johnson means to this team in terms of engineering the offense.

Players to Watch: If AJ Abrams gets hot from behind the arc early, then the Cardinal are in serious trouble. Despite having tall defenders in Fred Washington, Lawrence Hill and Taj Finger who can cover on the perimeter, Abrams can shoot over them. Since Texas is decidedly smaller than Stanford, expect the Longhorns to use the physical 6’10” 299-pound Dexter Pittman or wiry big man Alexis Wangmene at the same time as center Connor Atchley during brief spells for Damion James. Meanwhile, the Cardinal perimeter players must hit open shots created by collapses on the Lopez brothers if they want to keep the Texas defense honest.

Moment of Truth: In a one-possession game, Rick Barnes has the luxury of turning to his trusty point guard, DJ Augustin. Though Mitch Johnson has been spectacular at the point for the Cardinal, he has only faced one team with a guard tandem as talented as Texas’s. Rick Barnes and his staff have likely watched the Stanford-Marquette game tape at least five times, and dissected exactly how the Longhorns can exploit the Cardinal.

#1. Memphis vs. #5. Michigan State [Clement]

Coach Izzo's championship-experience and Morgan's stature are two reasons MANY people are lovin' the Spartans to be the first to bounce a 1-seed (Memphis).
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Never in the history of the Final Four have all four 1-seeds made the Final Four. While several analysts (notably Jay Bilas, Clark Kellogg and “America’s Bracket”) warmed up to the idea a few weeks back, popular theory has Memphis being the most vulnerable of the 1-seeds. Whether that’s due to their competition (a stacked bracket remains) or their own deficiencies (free throws and a 3-point obsession, of course) is up to you. If it’s up to me, I see a Spartans team that is easily playing its best basketball all season. That’s lethal when you have a seasoned coach (with a national title), a senior driven to overcome a disappointing year and a Big Ten pedigree that is in stark contrast to Memphis’s style of running and gunning with incredible depth, no less. Is this where the first, and potential only, 1-seed takes its bow before the Final Four? We know where history stands on that possibility.

Players to Watch: Most people think of Memphis and isolate their backcourt: Chris Douglas-Roberts and Derrick Rose. While they will have their impact for sure, I can’t help but target two Tiger big-men – Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier (combined 16 points and 16 boards a game) – who may have just as much with the Tigers continuing their winning-ways. Their ability to control the boards, block shots and spark transition is key for the Tigers to dictate the pace of the game. As for the Spartans, you know they’re dead-set on forcing the Tigers to play Big Ten basketball. While Raymar Morgan is the team’s leading scorer, it’s the Spartans leading rebounder, Goran Suton, that needs to replicate his performance versus Pitt against the Tiger big men. His 14 points, 9 rebounds, and most importantly, 3 fouls were key in dealing with the plethora of Pitt bigs. He’ll need to take advantage of easy shot opportunities, crash the offensive glass and make smart passes to shooters behind the arc named Neitzel.

Moment of Truth: As soon as the game reaches the penalty, in either half, (which can be quite early in a Spartans game) the Tigers’ greatest weakness will be exposed: free-throw shooting. The worst in the nation and in the NCAA Tournament (remember, 15-32 against Mississippi State in Round 2), free throws may afford Memphis a lead before the half and the ability to put away Izzo’s crew. If they can’t, John Calipari’s consistent care-free attitude towards poor free-throw shooting may again bury the Tiger’s Final Four aspirations.

See you Saturday and Sunday with the treatment for the Elite Eight!

Until next time…