Underrated's Last 10 Seasons

Am I short changing the Spartans too easily? Perhaps.
Not like it hurt me with UNC's last outing though.
Nevertheless, let's take a peak at the past ten national championship games and see how similar trains of thought would've fared.

And yes, I am calling some #1-seeds pretty heavy favorites over other #1-seeds (see: 2007). Why? Because I'll back it up.
We're not talking about many, or any, coin flips here.

All odds courtesy of Statsheet.com. (NA=Not available)
The covers, well they don't need a source unless you're brain dead.
God bless the Internet.

2008 - Kansas vs. Memphis (-1.5)

Commentary: The first time four-#1 seeds had ever reached the Final Four, the earliest lines fluctuated from a pick'em to Memphis by as many as 2. This may, in fact, be as close to an actual pick'em as we've seen in the past 10 (or 1, if you wanna be a smartass) championship matchups. It should come as no surprise that the game was competitive, that it went to overtime, and that nobody would've been legitimately surprised with either team winning. Although it must be noted that Memphis seemed to have the game locked up. Key word: seemed. Perhaps this doesn't help or hurt the theory. Which probably makes it more negative than positive. Moving along...

2007 - Florida vs. Ohio State (NA)

Commentary: Despite being a #1-seed, having the future #1-overall pick (Greg Oden), and a fellow top-5 pick in Mike Conley Jr., the Buckeyes were big time underdogs to the defending national champion Gators. While Oden had plenty of dunks down low, Florida controlled nearly from start to finish. The Gators entered the tournament heavy favorites and the overall #1-seed. What resulted was a 84-75 victory that was never truly in question. Score one for the overwhelming favorites.

2006 - Florida (-1.5) vs. UCLA

Commentary: Avoiding a few early scares - namely against Georgetown - Florida breezed past Cinderella-story-of-the-century George Mason into the national championship game. Ditto for UCLA, who spanked LSU to give us one of the most borish Saturday nights in recent memory. While the Bruins had tradition, Ben Howland's defensive genius, and a talented backcourt (led by a guy named Farmar), Florida's starting 5 dominated from start to finish, defeating the Bruins with ease 73-57. A few West Coast-homers wondered if Howland had turned UCLA back into a national champion years earlier than expected. They're still waiting. Another W for the favorites...and the Gators.

Note: By the way, I still contend Vegas pushed this line so close to a pick'em in order to cash in HEAVILY with UCLA-homers. Which they did, by the way.

2005 - North Carolina (-2) vs. Illinois

Commentary: Clearly the best two teams in the country all season long, the Tar Heels were looking to help head coach Roy Williams secure his first national championship. While Illinois had plenty of talent - particularly in its backcourt (Williams & Brown) - the Tar Heels were stacked with lottery talent of their own (3, to be exact), including a guy taken over CP3 and Deron Williams (that's Marvin!). Despite a late surge from the Illini, the Heels cut down the nets for the 4th time in school history. Notice a trend? The upsets just aren't coming. No matter how close they came.

2004 - UConn vs. Georgia Tech (NA)

Commentary: Despite the heroics of Will Bynum throughout the tournament, there is NO realistic bet I would've taken, no odds friendly enough, for me to believe UConn was losing this game. Maybe if Ben Gordon and Emeka Okafor tripped over each other on the way out of the tunnel and each tore their ACL...then we might've talked. In a game that had everything to do with a dominating double-digit lead, UConn ended up winning by 9 - by the way, this was as large of a 9-point victory as I can remember - 82-73. The Jackets had zero chance, folks. The overwhelming favorites never sweated for a moment.

2003 - Syracuse vs. Kansas (-5)

Commentary: Admittedly, I'm more than a little biased. Admittedly, I didn't pick Syracuse to advance past their national semi-final of the Final Four (I had them losing to my national champ, Texas). Admittedly, the media shortchanged this roster filled with one senior and a ton of underclassmen. Admittedly, Carmelo Anthony was far-and-away the most talented player on the court (sorry Collison and Heinrich). Admittedly, Jim Boeheim had lost twice before in the Superdome; having his heart broken, by a guy with the last name of Smart, in 1987. Admittedly, Kansas was favored, by 5 points. Admittedly, Syracuse was picked to lose by a similar margin to two other Big XII teams in the Elite Eight (Oklahoma) and National Semi-Final (Texas). Admittedly, this is the most satisfying single victory of my "fandom" career. Admittedly, this result doesn't help my theory much. Admittedly, this result doesn't hurt my theory much either.

2002 - Maryland (-7.5) vs. Indiana

Commentary: Indiana nearly tripped up against a guy named Blizzard and the Seahawks of UNC-Wilimgton in the second round; however, it was the near collapse against Duke that garnered all the headlines. It's also fun to note that they had to beat 10-seeded Kent State - with Antonio Gates on the frontline - to make the Final Four. Mike Davis led the upstart Hooisers as far as he could, losing to a talented, poised, and savvy Terrapins squad that seemed predestined to avenge the mistakes and heartbreaks of 2001. And so they did. Indiana hung around as best they could, but like he always did, Juan Dixon (leading the charge with a 22-8 to run to close out the game) was simply just too good. The Terps took home their first ever national championship, defeating the storied Hoosier program - sans Bobby Knight, of course - 64-52. This Terps team may be the most underrated national champions of the (young) century. Yep, the favorites won again, with relative ease too!

2001 - Duke (-3.5) vs. Arizona

Commentary: I didn't give this Arizona team nearly enough respect as it entered the tournament (shocker!). They only defeated #1-seeded Illinois in their regional final and then the defending national champs, Michigan State, to advance to Monday night's finale. Meanwhile, the Dookies were absolutely STACKED. Names like Battier, Williams, and Dunleavy should ring a few horrific memories. They even overcame a 39-17 deficit to defeat their ACC rivals, Maryland, in their national semi-final. Lauren Woods was in his 11th year with the Wildcats; however, it wasn't enough. Despite making an impressive run mid-way through the second-half, the lottery-stacked Dookies prevailed 82-72. Typically when Dook enters a title game as a favorite, they win. Typically. The trend is all but FACT over the past ten championships, isn't it? Oh yeah, my friend John Brady, cried at the end of this game. I don't blame him one bit, especially as a devoted Terps fan.

2000 - Michigan State (-4) vs. Florida

Commentary: The Flynt-stones weren't as hobbled as the announce team wanted you to believe (even Mr. Cleaves) and the Gators, an upstart 5-seed, weren't an adequate enough match for the nation's finest team. The Spartans had everything working for them. Funny thing is, Zach Randolph still wasn't on this team. Many of these players were a part of three-straight Final Fours andall 12 on the roster have rings after an 89-76. When a Tom Izzo-coached team scores 89, they're going to win. When a team is favored in the National Championship Game, they're likely to win too!

1999 - UCONN vs. Duke (-9)

Commentary: Now here we go. Let's not discount the talent on UConn. This was a team more than a great head coach (insert: Calhoun) and a star-in-the-making (insert: Rip Hamilton, tourney MOP might I add). In fact, they were #1-ranked an extra week (10 to 9) over the Dookies. They had the memorable moment (which often seems necessary to memorable title runs) too; with Hamilton breaking the hearts of UDub fans with his fading-fade away against the Huskies. I'll admit that I didn't give the Huskies much of a chance. Duke had a sensational roster - led by Elton Brand - and a coach with two titles in his back pocket. What resulted - in a Final Four played in Tampa of all places - was one of the few upsets in recent memory, with UConn winning 77-74. Not nearly as shocking as a 15 over a 2, but most people still penciled in the Dookies for their 3rd National Championship. This proves it's a trend/theory and not fact. But could it just be the outlier we need to remove? Could it???

In the end, I'm still picking the Tar Heels by a LOT. But maybe there is proof in this pudding.
JELLO PUDDING!!!

11 National Championship Game Questions

10 would be too cliche and 12 would be too much. So what do we do? 11!!!

If the Spartans want a realistic chance, exit Thabeet and insert Hansbrough in this picture.
Easier said than done, Clement.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) The oddsmakers have UNC as 7 1/2-point favorites. Which side are you on?

2) Which Tar Heel will walk out MOP with a win: Lawson, Hansbrough, Ellington, or Green?

3) Which Spartan will walk out MOP with a win: Lucas, Morgan, Sutton, or Lucious?

4) Which coach is most likely to earn a third, not just second, national championship?

5) Is this UNC team (Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington, Green) better than 2005's (May, Felton, McCants, M. Williams) national championship team?

6) What is the largest halftime deficit the Spartans could realistically overcome? Is their a deficit too large for the Heels?

Izzo better have a Calhoun-type lock on the refs if his team can avoid Lawson drawing double-digit fouls on the entire depth chart of Michigan State.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

7) I hate to say it, but could an injury to Lawson's toe (which seems as close to 100% as possible) be the best shot for the Spartans?

8) How large of an upset would the Spartans pull if they can go Giants over Patriots in a championship game "rematch"? In the span of ten years, is this potential storied upset most comparable to 1999's UConn over Duke (Dookies favored by 7, in case you forgot)? Do you have a better one?

9) Whose 3-point shooting is more important to their team winning? Is there a method to forcing Ellington into early misses in Izzo's playbook?

10) Will this game need an extra session like last year's title game (Kansas vs. Memphis)?

11) Mario Chalmers moment-time. Down 3, and you have the ball, with less than 10 seconds to go. Is Lawson or Lucas passing or taking the shot themselves? (Better question: is either coach calling for the foul?)

I hope all these answers are, in fact, answered. However, I remain Dr. Skeptismo.
We'll hopefully get more from Pay tomorrow - and perhaps myself - as tipoff approaches.
As for my score prediction...let's just say I have one team by 25+. I see shades of Duke/UNLV in '90, not '91.

That should say plenty. And yes, I'm saying the all-time largest margin of victory may be in danger.

Beware Tark. That record may be in trouble. Seriously.
Admittedly, this cover is MUCH better.
Credit: CNNSI.com

InClement Weather: Final Four Harsh Realities

In case you didn't know, none of us have to suck up to anyone when we post.
Often we post with our hearts over our heads (okay, this is the "royal we" as in me, or I), but we also don't pull punches in order to keep people reading.

Those who still do read us (thank you!) know this by now.

With that in mind, the Final Four tips off in a little over 2 hours and I have 10 things you need to know about EACH game.

#1. UConn @ #2. Michigan State [6:07 p.m.]

I don't expect Walker and the Huskies to be down very often today. Not at all.
Credit: LATimes.com

1) Yes, I declared this a road game for the Huskies. It won't matter though. It'll be the equivalent of them playing in MSG @ St. John's. They won't be fazed one bit.
2) Playing these, or any, tournament games in gigantic football stadiums is lame beyond belief. The court looks ridiculous, I keep waiting for a terrible injury on a hustle play out of bounds on the sideline, and the idea of charging over $100 a ticket to sit a mile away is a joke.
3) Jim Calhoun is not a moral coach. However, he's a winner. Guess which one of those most fans and alumni want? Me included.
4) Tom Izzo is so short it's bordering on evil.
5) I don't know if I see a star pro on Michigan State. I do, however, on UConn with Thabeet, Walker, and (maybe) A.J. Price.
6) If Michigan State wants to win, they have to use up every foul possible in order to foul out Thabeet. It only took the Orange nearly 5 OTs to do it. Good luck, Spartans.
7) A.J. Price is a fantastic player. However, I don't think he can lead this team to two more victories and ultimately a national championship. Not without Jerome Dyson by his side.
8) Stanley Robinson is UConn's "Danny Green". As for the Spartans, they'll need at least 2 or 3 "Danny Green's" of their own to pull off the upset.
9) If Sutton can shoot a ridiculous number, perhaps 5 of 8 from behind the arc, than the Spartans can score - for a while, at least - with the Huskies.
10) UConn will do this evening what they've done EVERY game this tournament. They'll start red hot, clamp down early on the glass, and their opponent will only tease us with a few futile comebacks. I know Missouri had a brief lead, but the key word was brief. UConn is winning this game because of an edge in talent and a (very slim) edge in coaching. This won't be an entertaining game.

UCONN wins, 72-63.

Note: Pay is a long-time loyal Tar Heel fan. I know I sound a little "Jim Rome-esque" saying Tar Heel fan, but I am not calling out Pay. He's too smart of a fan not to realize what's at stake and how amazingly good his team's chances are.

#1. North Carolina vs. #3. Villanova

Yes, I'll be discussing the one known as Psycho T. Let the emotions fly!!!
Credit: MSV.com

1) What do these rankings mean anymore honestly? You tell me.
2) North Carolina is an overwhelming favorite in my mind. I mean by a HUGE margin, too.
3) I picked Villanova to emerge out of the East because of how they matched up against Pitt. I still would've given the Panthers a much better shot to take down the Tar Heels. Much much better.
4) Despite the previous two sentences, I don't hate Villanova. Not even close. They are, in fact, be one of the few non-Orange Big East teams I can stand rooting for. I just don't like this matchup for them at all.
5) If Wayne Ellington makes 2 of his first 3 shots, Jay Wright and his team are in serious trouble.
6) I previously wondered out loud - on more than one occassion - if Scottie Reynolds hurt this team more than he helped it. Clearly, I was wrong. And no, it didn't take a breathtaking 3/4 court drive for the game-winner to prove me wrong. That just helped.
7) Dante Cunnigham is in a bit of a mess today. Why? He loves that 16-18 foot jump shot; however, it doesn't take an analyst like John Thompson (whose said it all tournament long) to tell you that Cunnigham must dominate inside, rather than outside, if the Wildcats have the slightest chance tonight. Even if the jumpers start to fall early.
8) Pay brought up an excellent point via text. North Carolina has had a week to deal with "Villanova and the baseline". I typically give Roy Williams the benefit of the doubt with extra time. Especially if it's 5 days over 1.
9) Ty Lawson has become the face of North Carolina. That makes them much more likeable for people like me, who kinda cringe with Hansbrough. It's not because he hustles, he's white, or because he's a Tar Heel. It's because it just doesn't feel right. Much like the famed-celebration against the Hokies in last year's ACC tournament quarterfinals (after an amazing shot), the guy just irks most of us more than a little bit. True Tar Heel fans don't need to cry for him to be respected. The hate, or distaste, has everything to do with the realization of how hard he works, how talented he is, and how much our teams need a guy just like that. So take a deep breath Tar Heel fans, you - or your star player - don't have to be liked, admired, and respected by every one. Nobody should want that.
10) You come up with a scenario in which Villanova wins. A realistic one. And I don't mean losing by 1 or by 99. That doesn't matter. You come up with a scenario where the Wildcats, in '09 and not '85, advance. I honestly can't. And Tar Heels fans, don't give me a "scared prediction" because you don't want to predict a blowout.

North Carolina wins, 80-65.

In case you missed it...here it is again.