Anatomy of an Upset:

You want to know why Butler WON tonight's game? Syracuse lost it.

I know that wreaks of sour grapes, but it's true.
And don't get me wrong...I'd have killed to have Butler lose it.
But they didn't. Syracuse did.


18 turnovers to 7. Syracuse was lazy, undisciplined, and lacking any touch on lob passes into the paint.

That's just the start of what went wrong.

In a word: pathetic.
Credit: ESPN.go.com

1) Jim Boeheim was outcoached, completely. Not that this ever surprises me anymore. Calhoun, Dixon, and Pitino have been outclassing him in the Big East for years now.
2) Wesley Johnson isn't assertive enough to create his own shot. His raw athleticism is amazing, but he did NOTHING after a nice 3 that gave Syracuse a BRIEF 41-40 lead. He may be a top 5-pick, but if he can't learn to create his own shot...bye bye relevancy in the NBA.
3) A 7-man rotation that goes to 6 - after AO's injury - showed the pathetic lack of depth on Cuse's bench. (Believe me, I don't blame DeShonte Riley one bit. Not his fault.) Pay knew it (I hated to agree, but he was soooo right), that Boeheim was playing with fire with such a short bench; especially if an injury occurred to one of his bigs. Lucky for the Cuse, AO is injury prone!!!
4) Rick Jackson is NOT someone you run your offense through. The game plan was AWFUL tonight. Jackson touched the ball far too much. He was uncomfortable, turnover prone, lazy on defense (probably due to being exhausted), and couldn't grip the basketball anywhere near the paint. Pathetic performance from Rick Jackson, who deserves a reign of boos next time he enters the Carrier Dome.

Of course, I'm INCREDIBLY dissapointed as a fan. I didn't have 100% Final Four aspirations, without AO, if Kansas State was waiting for us. However, I didn't want a season I invested so much time in, to end so poorly. I'd love to throw a few words in front of poorly. Man, would I ever.

To the victor goes the spoils. An impressive final 5 minutes, to say the least, for the Bulldogs.
Credit: CNNSI.com

But props to Butler. They made stops, hit deep 3s very late (lucky bounces or not), contained Jackson with relative ease, and made Rautins work his butt off. Syracuse had little to no chance to get second-chance opportunities on the offensive glass, force turnovers due to the zone extending, or get the fast break going.

Funny thing is, Butler didn't shoot lights out either (40% from the field, 25% from 3). Far from it. They didn't need twelve 3s or 30 trips to the free throw line to win. Syracuse beat themselves by failing to execute on the offensive side of the ball. A minor tweak may result in 2 or 3 nice possessions, only until things broke down yet again.

Obviously the point is, Syracuse played a pathetic game. With a pathetic game plan. With pathetic coaching. Outside of an above average opening stretch in the second half, I could sadly see the writing on the wall. No lead lasted long, even 54-50 with the under 4-timeout. Of course, the inbound play led to a turnover, a Butler deep 3, and an 11-0 run! Great adjustments Jimmy!!!

I knew it all too soon in the second half. This game would end in all too unfamiliar fashion.
It wreaked of that infamous Vermont game in 2005.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Up 54-50, Syracuse stalled completely. Killing any momentum by holding onto the ball too long on multiple possessions (after STOPS, no less). Why on EARTH did Boeheim allow the team to force BAD shots by Scoop Jardine (really?) late in the shot clock, allowing Butler time to settle their defense in, rebound poor shots, and then hit shots of their own on the offensive end??? Why not call a timeout and map out an offensive gameplan. Maybe one through Johnson, Rautins, or Joseph (who looked like his 2008-self) and NOT Jackson or Jardine. Then of course, the aforementioned turnover and 11-0 run came after the 4-minute timeout. No surprise Brad Stevens had a better game plan for the final 4 than Jimmy, right?

A team of overachievers just underachieved.
And I want real answers. From Boeheim.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Unfortunately, much like the Vermont-loss in 2005...I won't get any (answers).

I'll just get Gus Johnson unabashedly rooting for underdogs to hit deep 3s.
At least he doesn't hide it, I guess.

Utterly embarrassed to be a Syracuse fan right now.
I'd feel better if I were a Jayhawk fan right now, I think.

Now I'm going to stop pouting, grow up, and move on.
At least I didn't break anything...expensive.

Sweet Sixteen: Questions without Answers...yet (Part IV)

Extending to a final (extra day) in which I took a detailed look at each of the four regionals for this weekend's upcoming NCAA Tournament action.

You might hear more from me - or Pay - otherwise; however, I'm going to ride my tournament momentum and address a few issues on the upcoming weekend of regional semi-finals and finals.

Midwest = Mid-day Monday
West = Late Monday

East = Early Tuesday
South = Early Wednesday (aka BELOW)

Darryl Bryant, now out for the remainder of the season after suffering a broken foot, and the Mountaineers got their due yesterday. Added pressure to Joe Mazzulla now, of course.
Credit: WVUMountaineersports.com

South Region:

#1 Duke vs. #4 Purdue

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Duke QUESTION: Coach K won't let this team underestimate Purdue's talent. Question is, is Duke capable of winning a tightly contested game in this tournament? Fortunately, due to the sad state of their region, the Dookies may not need to have a close game for another weekend. (Sigh)

Duke X-FACTOR: Two early (chippy) fouls on Jorge Guitierrez hurt Cal as Scheyer became more relaxed and comfortable. One of the best in the country at doing it, how does Duke get some of the more talented Boilermakers off of the court and into foul trouble. I'm looking at you Johnson, Moore, and Kramer.

Blue Devil I'm Watching: Alright. I finally am going make a stand. Is this the game where Brian Zoubek overreaches his boundaries? Crash the boards and set screens is all he has to do. Even sans Hummel, can Purdue get the Dookie big man to committ some careless fouls and open up a few and-1s?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Purdue QUESTION: Question is, how do Moore and Johnson dominate in the paint without committing ticky-tack fouls? Believe me, I'm not beating a dead drum when I talk about the Dookies and their opponents committing ticky tack fouls. If you disagree, check the tape. Any tape. As for the Boilermaker bigs, both can get foul happy and Duke takes more charges - fair or flop - than anyone in the country (times 9,787). That means the Boilermaker big men might have to give up a layup or two or take a deeper jumper than expected...all in the name of avoiding the nickle-dimer.

Purdue X-FACTOR: They've been doubted about 15 seconds after Hummel went down with the ACL tear. So why should they care what the odds are against them? Duke hasn't beat a legit team in the tournament in years and the Boilermakers made the Sweet Sixteen last year (before bowing out in the West to #1 seed UCONN). This team has nothing to lose. Embrace the suck and shock the world.

Boilermaker I'm Watching: Chris Kramer is all heart. Shane Falco-heart. I just like watching the kid play.

#3 Baylor vs. #10 St. Mary's

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Baylor QUESTION: They have one thing Villanova had (athleticism) and one they sorely lacked (size and length). So question is, how do they use that to attack Omar Samhan and put the big man - perhaps the star of the first weekend not named Ali (STONES!) on the bench in foul trouble?

Baylor X-FACTOR: Houston. Forget everything else. I've heard about two locations more than any other: BYU in Salt Laker City and Baylor in Houston. Since the Cougars have said bye-bye, I want to see if the Bears gain enough of an advantage - playing in Houston - to be noticed.

Bear I'm Watching: I'd be lying if I told you I'd seen a lot of Baylor this year. In fact, you can count the fingers on one of my hands and divide by two and get the number. Nevertheless, with a name like LaceDarius Dunn, how can your eyes not jump out of the box score. Nearly 20 points a game out of the Big XII ain't too shabby either. It's time to see what the junior can do. All the attention can't go to (Kansas State's) Jacob Pullen, right?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

St. Mary's QUESTION: Question is, how do you avoid an early letdown in the first game of the second weekend...after a flawless opening tilt? The Gaels are confident, brash, and cocky. Who can blame them? However, we've all see more than our fair share of teams who were the darlings of the opening weekend, only to flame out with crushing 20+-point defeats. The Gaels don't need to start out on fire, but they can't fall behind early. A back-and-forth pace is exatly what this team needs. Sometimes staying on your toes for 40-minutes, isn't such a bad strategy.

St. Mary's X-FACTOR: Watch the game tape of Sam Houston State's defensive scheme against Baylor, as well as the opening 10 minutes of the second half from ODU against the Bears. Now, craft your defensive strategy as such. Both of Baylor's opponents were able to find - if only for a portion of a half - something that worked. Combine that with a more potent offense and a talented big man, and St. Mary's has a shot.

Gael I'm Watching: If you want me to say a name besides Omar Samhan, you haven't been watching this tournament. Come on, you're better than that.

Sweet Sixteen: Questions without Answers...yet (Part III)

Continuing with the second day of two days and four posts.

You might hear more from me - or Pay - otherwise; however, I'm going to ride my tournament momentum and address a few issues on the upcoming weekend of regional semi-finals and finals.

Midwest = Mid-day Monday
West = Late Monday

East = Early Tuesday (aka BELOW)
South = Mid-to-late Tuesday

Denis Clemente, Frank Martin, and the Wildcats got their shot last night.
Up next, the East region.
Credit: KCConfidential.com

East Region:
#1 Kentucky vs. #12 Cornell

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Kentucky QUESTION: Simply put, question is: who stabilizes Kentucky when they start to struggle? If the Wildcats start out slow, hit a rough patch from the field mid-way through a tighter than expected second half, or suffer foul trouble from Cousins or Wall, who is the stabilizing presence on the court? Perhaps the answer can be found below.

Kentucky X-FACTOR: Speed. I talked about tempo, at length, when dissecting the Xavier/Kansas State matchup in the Midwest region. The same must be said about this affair between the Wildcats and the Big Red. Cornell has shown before - particularly against Rock, Chalk - that they can score with the big boys. Problem is: can they score for 40 minutes with Kentucky? Probably not, considering the pace John Wall and company are known to play with.

Wildcat I'm Watching: Perhaps I'm more guilty than most for underrating Patrick Patterson's versatility. While I think's it's completely moronic for him to chuck up any 3s - no less more than 1 - in a game, Cousins affords him extra spacing in the paint and his mid-range game has steadily improved this season. While he's not their top option, he's as close as the Wildcats have to a veteran on the court. Might come in hand against a team (Cornell) oozing with senior leadership.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Cornell QUESTION: Question is, does Cornell have the bodies and the legs to withstand the runs Kentucky is capable of putting together? Cornell simply can't afford to be down by double-digits early on. This doesn't mean chucking up 3s and hoping to build an early 12-5(ish) lead. Instead, it's valuing possessions, limiting second chance opportunities for the Wildcats, and getting to the charity stripe. Hitting open 3s wouldn't hurt though. Unfortunately, much of that is quite a tall order against most people's prohibitive tournament favorite, Kentucky.

Cornell X-FACTOR: Veteran leadership. Cornell has a slew of seniors who know each other, their system, and exactly what their coach asks of them. Sounds a little like Northern Iowa, doesn't it? Cornell won't be rattled by Kentucky; however, let's not pretend Temple and Wisconsin run an offense anywhere near as talented and free-wheelin' as the Wildcats do. I don't buy any sort of hometown discount playing in Syracuse, either. Kentucky travels as well as any program in the nation. Bank on that.

Big Red I'm Watching: Ryan Wittman may be the star of Cornell, but beating Kentucky will take a star-making performance from senior point guard Louis Dale. Clark Kellog noted, quite wisely, that Dale plays at a speed that's "as fast as the situation calls for." Dale doesn't need to blow by opponents on every possession, just the ones where the lane is clear. His ability to make Wall work on defense - and effectively attack the paint - will go a long way in Cornell pulling off the upset.


#2 West Virginia vs. #11 Washington

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Washington QUESTION: Star power is the name of the game. Question is, can Quincy Pondexter go toe to toe with De'Sean Butler?

Washington X-FACTOR: Washington needs to get to the free throw line 20+ times and make 80% of them. That's not gonna be easy. 9-14 (64%) and 10-20 (50%) in their two opening victories are HIGHLY unimpressive numbers. West Virginia has 4 players on the court who can hit a 3 - covered or uncovered - deeper than you'd expect. To nullify that, make your free throws and force the Mountaineers into working for their shots, wherever they come from.

Husky I'm Watching: Quincy Pondexter is the star of this team. He may need to score 30+ and effectively bang for 35+ minutes against a team of forwards. Nevertheless, Isaiah Thomas Jr. needs to isolate West Virginia's glaring weakness, the point guard position. If Thomas can protect the ball and establish himself with a confident penetrating dribble, Mazzulla is foul prone and Bryant can turn into a walking disaster in little to no time. Win the point guard battle and Washington's improbable run can more easily continue.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

West Virginia QUESTION: I hate to be redundant, but if the point needs to be made...in fact, I'll make it two or three times if I have to. For the Mountaineers, question is: how do they limit Quincy Pondexter's touches and if they can't, how do they avoid fouling him as he attacks the hoop off the dribble?

West Virginia X-FACTOR: It's obviously the point guard position. Bob Huggins would be foolish to expect the duo of Mazzulla/Bryant to go for 15 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists (with less than 5 turnovers). Problem is: he's gonna need that. Isaiah Thomas Jr. is a young, dynamic point guard in the making who can cause trouble for the WVU backcourt. Unless they can find one of the two to be a steadying force, West Virginia may be forced late in possessions to take tough, contested shots. Or to rely to heavily on Mr. Butler (if that's possible).

Mountaineer I'm Watching: Devin Ebanks seemed like a safe pick as preseason All-America. On a team full of forwards, he was the most willing to give up his body and make a play in the lane. Or so we thought. While his stats are far from dissapointing (12 points and 8 rebounds), I keep expecting Ebanks to show his lottery potential and take over games mid-way through the second half. Perhaps Bob Huggins and De'Sean Butler have something to do with that. Nevertheless, if Butler struggles - which isn't out of the question - can Ebanks control the glass or get to the free throw line (two things he can excel at) often enough to stem the tide before Mr. Clutch (eventually) arrives?

The final region, the South, gets its due later tonight.

Sweet Sixteen: Questions without Answers...yet (Part II)

Continuing what will be two days and four posts.

You might hear more from me - or Pay - otherwise; however, I'm going to ride my tournament momentum and address a few issues on the upcoming weekend of regional semi-finals and finals.

Midwest = Mid-day Monday
West = Late Monday (aka BELOW)

East = Early Tuesday
South = Mid-to-late Tuesday

Izzo and Sparty already got their due.
Up next: the West Regional.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

West Region: #1 Syracuse vs. #5. Butler

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Syracuse QUESTION: The health of Arinze Onuaku is a pre-existing circumstance. One I've mentioned more than enough, right? That aside, question is: what can Syracuse expect from the point guard position (duo of freshman Brandon Triche & sophomore Scoop Jardine) on both sides of the ball?

Syracuse X-FACTOR: How does Butler deal with the 2-3 zone? If they can't hit outside shots early and the Orange can rebound, much like they did against Gonzaga, things should go quite smoothly again for the Orange. Key word: can't.

Orange(man) I'm Watching: Wes Johnson was Big East Player of the Year and a 1st-team All American. Whether or not Onuaku plays (broken record?), he needs to be more selfish. Problem is, that's against Johnson's nature. Bigger problem is, how do you ask that without giving him potentially too much range? Credit the relationship he has with his teammates and, most of all, Jim Boeheim for that answer.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Butler QUESTION: Out of conference opponents often struggle mightily against Syracuse's 2-3 zone. You don't see a zone like it often (or at all) and especially not with the length and athleticism Syracuse has. Butler has 3 days to prepare to attack it. Question is, how do you simulate that type of length and proficiency in practice?

Butler X-FACTOR: Outside shooting. His 10+ 3s and you can beat the Orange. Louisville did it, twice. Attack the zone and run and gun with the Orange and you can beat them. Georgetown did. Greg Monroe gave the blueprint for a big man. Either way, you need to score 90+ or hold the Orange 20% below their FG average to beat them. Don't turnover the ball either. And defend Andy Rautins well. Don't underestimate Butler being able to do a few of those things potentially.

Bulldog I'm Watching: Shelvin Mack. 25 against UTEP, but only 11 against Murray State. Mack will need to be productive from the perimeter and help break down the zone in order for the Bulldogs to keep up a consistent offensive pace. Long lapses are the worst nightmare for the Bulldogs next Thursday.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#6. Xavier vs. #2. Kansas State

Xavier QUESTION: No need to ellaborate. TEMPO is the be all, end all of this game. Question is, how do the Musketeers force Kansas State into their tempo and avoid running up and down the court against superrior athletes?

Xavier X-FACTOR: Xavier didn't rebound very well down the stretch against Pitt (outrebounded 35-29). That could be an issue against Kansas State. It you give Jacob Pullen multiple opportunities, he'll burn you. Big time.

Musketeer I'm Watching: Dante Jackson better stop missing free throws late. He did in the A-10 semi-finals and it burned the Musketeers. He did it against the Panthers on Sunday evening and it ALMOST did again. If Jackson can't contribute in late stretches - and more than just on a leadership level - the Musketeers won't put up enough points to defeat the Wildcats.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Kansas State QUESTION: Question is, how does Frank Martin allow his guards to have free range without turning the ball over and forcing poor shots? Xavier values possessions as well as any team in the nation. That means you better do the same. Otherwise, an 7-8 point lead against the Musketeers may feel like 15+ from other opponents.

Kansas State X-FACTOR: Speed and athleticism. Pullen and Clemente should get to the line 10+ times EACH. Both are ridiculously quick off of the rebound, can create their own shot with relative ease, and have no problem hitting from the outside. These two guards must dictate the pace of this game. Which means run, run, run.

Wildcat I'm Watching: Jacob Pullen is a star. His hip-injury is a little overplayed and it won't bother him. If he wants to do so much more than what Michael Beasley ever could in Manhattan (Kansas), he'll deliver in the clutch on Thursday night and put his team close to the brink of what was once seemingly unthinkable: a Final Four appearance.

The East regional gets it due earlier tomorrow. Until then...

InClement Weather: Weekend Bracket Banter

Been a while since we spoke, in fact it was Pay's 4-0 Thursday performance that left you wanting more.

Let's dive in head-first...

Get used to this smiling face. He may impact the Final Four as much as any player next season.
Credit: Streetball.com

Midwest Region

Louisville waxed Arizona 103-64. It didn't come as much of a surprise honestly. Right?
Arizona in 2009: No idea who the coach is. Likely it won't be Russ Pennell. In fact, despite the Sweet 16 appearance it appears Pennell may not be on the Wildcats bench at all. What do we know about the Wildcat roster? Jordan Hill is going to be a top 5 pick. He's gone. Chase Buddinger gave the Wildcat faithful an extra year and he's flirting with the lottery. He's gone. As for Nick Wise...he's a talented junior who should be back for a senior season. At least there's that for Wildcat fans.
Offseason Question: "Will Jamie Dixon be the next head coach of Arizona?"
Recruit to Watch: None. The coaching situation can't help. Interestingly, the only recruit signed (according to Rivals.com) was Tremayne Johnson. Why do I find it (somewhat) interesting? He was recruited by Reggie Geary.

Michigan State outlasted Kansas 67-62. While it seemed Collins was going to take control of the game down the stretch, a few lapses in judgment ultimately took out the defending national champions.
Kansas in 2009: This is a very young team. At the epicenter are Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins. The likelihood of Collins staying seems pretty high. As for Aldrich, I wouldn't be surprised if he made an immediate decision. If that's the case, he may be in those pre-draft rookie camps trying to climb up a few boards. If both stay, Bill Self has Final Four talent yet again.
Offseason Question: "Alright, Cole. What's it gonna be? Staying or going?"
Recruit to Watch: After bringing in 7 quality recruits in 2008, Bill Self tabbed two more. I'm most interested in 6'8 Thomas Robinson, who may see a lot more court time if Mr. Aldrich bolts early.

West Regional

UCONN controlled Purdue from start to finish, defeating the upstart Boilermakers 72-60. Jim Calhoun continues his march to a potential 3rd title in 10 years. Impressive to say the least.
Purdue in 2009: Matt Painter was frequently quoted as saying his team was working "ahead of schedule". You can't blame him one bit when you look at the roster he has. The team is likely to again be at the top of the Big Ten and, if Hummel stays healthy, can use this year's tournament run to their advantage this season. Look out for the Boilermakers in 2009.
Offseason Question: "How do they keep Hummel healthy an entire season and work their way up to a high seed?"
Recruit to Watch: Looking for depth is a recruiting advantage. Building for the future has to be considered when you bring back your entire starting 5. D.J. Byrd said no to Notre Dame, Indiana, Butler, and Xavier. That grabs my attention for Matt Painter and company.

Missouri somewhat stunned the Memphis Tigers 102-91. To put this in perspective: John Calipari's teams have never given up 100 points in a game. Ever. Until tonight.
Memphis in 2009: At the beginning of the season, I would've told you that Tyreke Evans was the #1 choice to be 1-and-done. Not so much anymore. In fact, can Evans be talked back into staying? Probably not. Nevertheless, it's not just Evans that is leaving potentially. Seniors Antonio Anderson and Robert Dozier will be sorely missed. Shawn Taggart and Doneal Mack may feel kinda lonely next season. Then again, judging by their highly ranked recruiting class, Memphis will be just fine in Conference USA and come tourney time. More than fine, in fact.
Offseason Question: "Is there a legitimate scenario which Calipari takes to bolt to another program?"
Recruit to Watch: Xavier Henry is signed. No surprise that he's a top-5 overall recruit. DeMarcus Cousins has verbally committed and may be the top recruit in the country. If (my) #1-ranked John Wall ends up joining the Tigers (is he waiting for Evans to make a decision?), I might put Memphis as the preseason favorites to cut down the nets. Scary good potential trio of freshman phenoms.

East Regional

Pitt fended over Xavier, in large put due to (trash) an incredible shot from senior leader Levance Fields. Xavier falls just short yet again. I continue to feel for them.
Xavier in 2009: After losing so much in 2008, I wondered if the Musketeers had enough to be a top program in 2009. I won't misunderestimate this team again. Having only one senior on the roster is a good thing. Although being that it's BJ Raymond makes it sting a little extra.
Offseason Question: "If the dominoes start to fall, will Sean Miller be leaving for (of all places) Pitt?"
Recruit to Watch: I'm not picking a name. Chances are I won't value the right kid and he'll end up being a 3-4 year stud for the Musketeers. Yeah, it's like that.

Villanova fizzled early; fortunately, DOOK stunk up the joint for the entire 40 minutes suffering their worst tournament loss in nearly 30 years.
Duke in 2009: I hate to be a hater, but getting Greg Paulus off of this roster will only be a good thing. As for losing Gerald Henderson, that will hurt quite a bit. His athleticism and attitude will be sorely missed by Coach K. However, a few All-American blue chippers will enter this season (as always) and there is still a foundation with Singler, Scheyer, Smith, Williams, and Thomas in place.
Offseason Question: "What's the first step towards Duke regaining its status as a yearly Final Four contender?"
Recruit to Watch: Ryan Kelly appears to be the typical 5-star Duke recruit. Here's my typical-issue with a Duke recruit: he's 6'9 and 205 lbs. I bet he has an affinity for the flop and the three-point shot too, right?

South Regional

North Carolina coasted past Gonzaga 98-77. By the way, Ty Lawson looks more than ready to lead this team to a national championship.
Gonzaga in 2009: Not many teams are losing as many names at the Zags. Who you ask? Jeremy Pargo, Micah Downs, and Josh Heytvelt have been staples the past couple of seasons in Spokane. Don't cry for Mark Few just yet though. He'd an incredible savvy recruiter and his team always loads up his schedule before WCC-play to prepare them for tourney play.
Offseason Question: "Is this a team capable of taking the next step and reaching its first ever Final Four or are they (and Xavier) a perennial "almost there" team?
Recruit to Watch: Mangisto Arop. What can I say? I love the name.

Oklahoma started with a confident swagger early and never looked back against Syracuse, winning by more than the 13-point margin on the scoreboard as time expired.
Syracuse in 2009: No excuses about Flynn's back are necessary. The team shot 0-10 from behind the arc in the 1st half and were downright sluggish and lazy for the game's opening 25 minutes. While returning to the Big Dance after a two year absent was nice, the Orange better be hungry for more next season. Onuaku, Jackson, and Harris will finally have some depth behind them with Iowa State transfer Wesley Jonathan joining the Orange in '09. Kris Joseph can only improve and a few recruits, or even a healthy Jones/Jardine duo may steal a few backcourt minutes. Problem is: without Jonny Flynn, this team is in serious trouble. Potential redshirt point guard Mookie Jones isn't ready to run the point yet. If Flynn stays, he also has backcourt mates Devendorf and Rautins back. I hate to sound biased, but if he does stay, this team has serious national championship-potential.
Offseason Question: "Plain and simple: Is Johnny Flynn staying to fuel national title hopes in 2009?"
Recruit to Watch: 6'11 DaShonte Riley committed to Georgetown and then selected Syracuse over Marquette after some "second or third" thoughts. He'll have plenty of time to develop behind Onuaku and Jackson. Nevertheless, can he make a leap from year one to year two? Or will he redshirt and make what I just said even more irrelevant?


See you in a few to talk Elite Eight...

PHSports Sweet 16 Preview

Last weekend, we saw very few upsets in the 1st round and none in the 2nd round. This weekend, we see the most “chalk” matchups in recent tournament history.

West Region
#1 UConn v. #5 Purdue

From laptops, to suspensions, to torn ACLs, to MOP of the West Region? Could happen.
Credit: TampaBay.com

A day after the news of an alleged recruiting violation hits the airwaves, UConn must step onto the court for a crucial showdown against Purdue, who is no pushover now that they are finally healthy. The Boilers will need to make up for their size and rebounding gap (UConn has a +8.3 rpg margin while Purdue has a -0.3 margin) with good decision making and shooting.

Keys to Victory for UConn
1. Outphysical (not a word) Purdue and pound them on the boards
2. Alter shots and force the Boilers to settle on the perimeter
3. Get JaJuan Johnson and Nemanja Calasan into early foul trouble

Keys to Victory for Purdue
1. Hit mid- and long-range jump shots early to pull Thabeet away from the basket (a la Notre Dame)
2. Protect the ball (+3.5 turnover margin per game)
3. Have Chris Kramer glove AJ Price

Prediction: UConn, 67-62

#2 Memphis v. #3 Missouri
To date, Memphis has not met a team who likes to play the Tigers at their own game. That changes tonight. In Missouri, you have a team that averages 18.5 assists per contest and has two ball handlers who have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.5 or better. In Memphis, you have a team that defends among the best in recent college basketball memory (opponents shoot 36% and 29% from three-point range).

Keys to Victory for Memphis
1. Put their stamp on the game via defensive will
2. Collect offensive rebounds en route to 2nd-chance points
3. Defend the perimeter

Keys to Victory for Missouri
1. Put pressure on Tyreke Evans
2. Hit 3-point shots early and set the press
3. Attack Memphis’s bigs

Prediction: Missouri, 67-61


East Region
#1 Pittsburgh v. #4 Xavier
This matchup pits two of the best rebounding teams in the nation. Pitt and Xavier have rebounding margins of +9.8 and +8.4 per game, respectively. While Xavier does not want a street fight, they are not afraid of one like most of Pitt’s competition. One final key stat to think about: Pitt’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.5 while Xavier’s is 0.9.

Keys to Victory for Pittsburgh
1. 2nd-chance points
2. Domination at the point → easy opportunities in the low post
3. Keep DeJuan Blair and Sam Young out of foul trouble

Keys to Victory for Xavier
1. Use slashing cuts
2. Hit (39.9% as a team) & defend (33.2% against) the trifecta
3. Get DeJuan Blair into foul trouble

Prediction: Pittsburgh, 74-65

#2 Duke v. #3 Villanova

Assuming Dante Cunningham is the constant, which of the countless Villanova role players will take their turn and step up for Jay Wright's Cats?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

This is another strength versus strength matchup in the East Region. Both teams have multiple good ball handlers and both teams average 8 or more steals per game.

Keys to Victory for Duke
1. Covet the ball
2. Provide help-side defense on dribble drives
3. Singler/Henderson must stay out of foul trouble

Keys to Victory for Villanova
1. Get to the charity stripe early & often
2. Get the Coreys going
3. Force Duke to settle for deep shots

Prediction: 71-67, Villanova

InClement Weather: Sweet Sixteen Thoughts

Opening Round Reactions can be found HERE and HERE.

Oh yeah, in case you didn't know, people HATE Eric Devendorf.
See! See! See! [All three posted next to the Syracuse result for today. COOL RIGHT!?!?]
Guess who loves it? Eric Devendorf.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Midwest Region

Louisville put the load on Terrence Williams and he responded with a stellar performance down the stretch against Siena. Their reward? An NBA-loaded squad from Arizona who is playing with house money. Execution in the opening 5 minutes and closing 5 minutes of each half will dictate who advances to the Elite Eight in this game.

Arizona proved a lot of experts correct. 1) They didn't deserve to be in the tournament field based on their regular season resume. 2) Once they got in, Arizona had a favorable draw and was very likely to make their way to the Sweet Sixteen due to their incredibly talented roster. Funny how things work out, right?

Kansas escaped a slow start against Dayton, mainly due to Dayton's even slower start. Cole Aldrich further impressed NBA scouts with a triple-double (13 pts, 20 rebs, 10 blocks!). The defending champs aren't afraid to grind out tough victories. Enter their next opponent...

Michigan State executed down the stretch, USC couldn't. The lack of urgency from the Trojan players during the final possession had to be unsettling for Tim Floyd (or was it?). The Spartans had 7 players log over 17 minutes and seem as balanced a squad remaining. Question is: do they have the offensive firepower necessary to win games in which they can't slow down the tempo to a crawl?

West Region

UCONN dispatched Texas A&M (as expected) with relative ease on Saturday afternoon. I was out watching I Love You, Man. I bet you wish you had too.

Purdue withstood all Washington could deliver in the 2nd half to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. Obvious memo out to the Boilermakers: you'll need two stellar halves to have a chance against UCONN. The real question remains: who can put Thabeet and Adrien on their butts on the Purdue front line? Any takers?

Missouri's ending against Marquette was one of the oddest endings you're likely to see in an NCAA Tournament game, without a buzzer beater being involved. J.T. Tiller made a fantastic Eaton-esque move to the hoop, with the game tied at 79 with 5.5 seconds to go, and drew a foul. After an awkward fall, "pinch-shooter" Kim English - yes, to add drama he is a freshman - nailed two free throws. Any Marquette fan was ballistic. Unfortunately, things only got worse when Lazar Hayward turned the ball over by stepping over the baseline before inbounding the ball. I don't want to hear about Acker's half-court heave/no foul call either, please. The final result was Missouri outlasting a gutsy Marquette squad. I thought if McNeal went for 30 and James played it'd be enough; however, Mike Anderson's incredible reclamation project at Missouri continues to improve.

Memphis dispatched Maryland early on. Tyreke Evans now has a gritty Missouri roster to deal with. Good luck to both sides on that front.

East Region

Pittsburgh trailed Oklahoma State with less than 3 minutes to go and then promptly answered the bell with its big 3 (Young, Blair, & Fields) making plays down the stretch. Can they dodge a third potential bullet against Xavier? Probably not. Will they storm out early and finally establish themselves as a legit #1-seed? Probably. By the way, Jamie Dixon has quickly become a Coach K-esque whiner on the sideline. He is livid after every call and has not lived up to the moniker of a tough coach on a tough team. He's a whiner. Plain and simple. Odd since DeJuan Blair walks a thin line between outworking and outright bullying opponents in the blocks.

Xavier withstood a brutal Wisconsin defensive effort in the first-half and executed down the stretch in the second half. I keep finding myself baffled at how much Xavier lost from last season's roster and has rebounded to make the Sweet Sixteen. They'll need nothing short of a stellar effort to make a second consecutive Elite Eight; however, if they can click on offense early and establish their tempo against Pitt, it's more than possible.

Villanova took out UCLA outside of the school's business building. Ridiculous.

Duke may have defeated Texas. They also may have gotten one too many fortunate calls down the stretch. Not that it should come as a surprise. Sure, I can hate all I want. Problem is: Duke may be Final Four bound if John Scheyer is going to be this heady a player. Uh oh.

South Region

UNC got an incredibly gutsy performance from Ty Lawson to overcome a scrappy LSU team down the stretch. It was nothing short of gutsy, but not heroic. Calm down, beat writers. Marcus Thornton tried his best; yet, the Heels were simply too much thanks in large part due to their talented point guard. They'll need this for four more games from Lawson. If healthy, this team would be a lock to cut down any and all nets. Problem is: he won't be 100%. That makes things slightly more dicey.

Gonzaga offered us as close a buzzer beater as possible. WKU had a legit gripe after not getting the timeout call. I can't imagine being in their shoes. Nevertheless, the tough reality is that Gonzaga still made the shot and still won. I'm pumped for UNC/Gonzaga. Which means the Tar Heels are gonna rout the Bulldogs and win by 30. Why? Because they can be that good.

Syracuse stiffled Arizona State for much of the game, responding to any adversity with calm outside shooting and a suffocating zone. The fourth Sweet Sixteen for Boeheim since '98, the Cuse should already be drawing up plans to hope to "contain" Blake Griffin. Good luck. Meanwhile, I am not pleased with the AP headline of Cuse "edging" ASU. When the Sun Devils cut the game long double-digit lead to 5, two straight 3s put it back to 11. The culprit was the most hated man in the tournament himself, Eric "K-Fed" Devendorf. James Harden is lucky NBA defenses aren't able to use a true zone defense. If so, the past two games might've knocked him out of the top 10. Cuse advanced and I sleep easy for a few more night.

Oklahoma defeated Michigan after the Wolverines excited their fanbase a little too much early on. Griffin took control, had a sensational posterizing-dunk, and the Sooners are quietly shaping back into form. Jeff Capel has a huge task ahead of him. One star player, no matter how incredibly talented, won't be enough without a solid gameplan that attacks the zone and isolates the Cuse big men to produce down the stretch.

Enjoy a few days of rest. If you have a team alive, keep on livin' the dream.
If not, don't resort to watching the NIT. Please.

InClement Weather: Opening Round Reactions [Part I of II]

I don't like text limits. That being said, I'm using them today. All day. Seriously. No, seriously.

Saturday afternoon update: Villanova leads UCLA 44-31 at the half. Role reversal for both teams. Nova trailed 10 on Thursday night to American and UCLA led VCU (tear) by 10. Sometimes I wonder if Villanova is better off with Scottie Reynolds on the bench. I also wonder if everyone is better off without Jay Bilas commentating.

Meet the new "stockbroker" America.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Midwest Region

Louisville defeats Morehead State 74-54. The Cardinals allowed the pesky play-in-game winners to stick around in the 1st half; however, too much talent and too much athleticism won out.

Siena took down Ohio State 74-72 in double overtime. The debate continues: should you or should you not foul a team down 3 with under 10 seconds to go?

Arizona "upsets" Utah 84-71. If you're ever looking for a first-round upset, always target the most talented 12-seed from a major conference (see: Villanova last season).

Cleveland State throttled Wake Forest 84-69. Perhaps the best team out of the Horizon (seriously), this is the same team that won in the Carrier Dome earlier this year. Wake Forest hasn't been right for 2+ months, this shouldn't have been a major shock.

Dayton took out West Virginia 68-60. I'm now allowing any injury-excuses for the Mountaineers, Bob Huggins and this group straight-up underachieved in this region. Props to the Flyers.

Kansas beat North Dakota State. Ben Woodside was a lot of fun to watch. Kansas is NOT a lock to easily take out Dayton; yet, with every win they get more and more dangerous.

USC stormed past Boston College 72-55. Maybe a lot of the "experts" picked USC a year too early. Yet again, the (middle of the) ACC has no established tempo and has the game dictated by their opponent.

Michigan State hardly breezes past Robert Morris. The motivation of playing in Ford Field may not be enough; however, this Spartan team might just need to win by any means possible (despite how ugly it looks).

West Region

No offense to Charles Abouo, but it won't be so easy for A&M to suffocate Thabeet and Adrien on Saturday.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

UCONN dismantled Chattanooga 103-47. Jim Calhoun is a brilliant coach, but why has he missed 3 tournament games over his career?

Texas A&M defeated BYU (again) 79-66. 1) Why did this have to be a repeat matchup? 2) How often do teams lose when they make their first 10 shots?

Purdue held on against Northern Iowa 61-56. The Boilermakers are a popular sleeper pick, but will need a far better second half on Saturday to survive and advance.

Washington defeated Mississippi State 71-58. I think a few too many people overestimated the Bulldogs and underestimated the Huskies. Mistake!

Marquette outlasted Utah State 58-57. Their second win without James, the Golden Eagles aren't going to be able to keep up with the Tigers without a spectacular individual effort from Jerel McNeal.

Missouri outpaced Cornell 78-59. If the Tigers can start their games a little hotter from the field, this is the darkhorse of the region far too few are talking about.

Maryland beat California 84-71. Anyone who depended on a Mike Montgomery-coached team...sit down. Vasquez talks just as much as Devendorf, and I love it!

Memphis fought back to defeat CSU Northridge. Tyreke Evans is an uber-talented kid, but can he realistically lead a team to the Final Four?

A Preview Ahead...

UCONN matches up against Texas A&M. The Aggies may need to make their first 10 shots again to keep up with the Huskies. Calhoun should be back in action and the gameplan has to focus around limiting open shots for Josh Carter. If the Aggies want to pull the upset, attack Thabeet and hope for foul calls. Meanwhile, the Huskies need Jeff Adrien to establish himself early and wear down the A&M frontline.

Purdue and Washington could likely put up one of the most competitive matchups of the second round. Purdue started rock solid and then ended with a thud against Northern Iowa. That won't be acceptable today. Washington can win this game if they develop an inside-outside attack. The key to that is the play of PG Isaiah Thomas, who can't shoot 3-13 from the field again.

Maryland draws a wounded Memphis team who can't be underestimated, despite a very poor effort in the opening round. Tyreke Evans must limit fouls - on both sides of the ball - and involve his teammates early. For the Terps, Vasquez will have the be Superman - perhaps to the tune of a near triple-double - and play within his emotions. The Terps will need their role players to control weak side rebounds and hit open shots. Maryland needs an A+ effort to advance to the Sweet Sixteen; especially if Memphis doesn't return with their D game.

Tomorrow, Marquette and Missouri meet up. This was a highly entertaining OT game in 2003, the last time these two teams met up in the NCAA Tournament. Marquette has four guys who can carry the scoring load; however, they still aren't the same team without their senior PG James. Meanwhile, Missouri must value possessions by blending good shots and offensive rebounding. It's hard to outwork a team like Marquette. With such tremendous balance on offense for both teams, a star may need to rise above everyone else for either team to advance.

Enjoy today's action. We'll be back later with Part II.

InClement Weather: Sweet Sixteen (Thoughts)

No doubt by now you've filled out a bracket (or 12) and begun to overanalyze what lies ahead for us all in the coming weeks.

Take a deep breath and calm down. In fact, enjoy sixteen (or so) thoughts about the bracket.

No, I'm not here to talk bubble either.

Midwest Region
1) Utah is already the most overrated team according to the entire country. Not me. But you say to me: "name on player on their team." That doesn't say anything negative about them; instead, it speaks to the lunacy in picking Arizona to march to the Sweet Sixteen automatically. Despite a load of talent, the Wildcats are undisciplined and unfocused (especially come March Madness in recent years). I would favor Cleveland State over Arizona. And that's not even because of the "hate".

2) Ohio State and Siena is a game you order the Direct Ticket package for, even if you don't know much about either team. It's going to be entertaining as two contrasting styles go to war. Both of these teams can scare Louisville. Big time.

3) USC ran through the Pac-10 Tournament all the way to their automatic bid, but they'll struggle with BC. If Rice hits his shots early, this game will be over very very early.

4) West Virginia is an up-and-coming team at the perfect time. If Ebanks can control himself against Kansas' bigs in the second round, the Mountaineers can shoot lights out from the beyond the arc and grab an early lead. Then Bob Huggins can switch up his defenses and frustrate you into bad shots. Just ask Pitt.

West Region
5) Nobody deserves BYU/Texas A&M again. Nobody.

6) Purdue and Washington are two teams that I fully expect to battle for a spot in the Elite Eight. Read that again and understand what I'm really saying.

7) Memphis might've gotten the break they needed by receiving the 2-seed. They get to play with a chip on their shoulder and one of the easier halves of their region's bracket. I don't buy Missouri just yet as an Elite Eight team. Despite having a fantastic coach, it won't happen this season for the Tigers.

8) Marquette is now done with that muderous Big East schedule - five-straight ranked opponents - and has (I think) finally adjusted to life with James. Nevertheless, they have a tricky first-round matchup against an underrated Utah State team. Can they win one game without James in the tournament? Of course. 2? Not so fast.

East Region

9) Two very contrasting styles when Wisconsin and Florida State meet up. Leonard Hamilton needs to be prepared for Toney Douglas to see two defenders at all times. If Kitchen attacks the hoop efficiently and the Noles use their size on both sides of the ball early on, the Noles will roll.

10) Texas and Tennessee both appeared to be top 10 squads at different points this season. During others, I wondered seriously if they were worthy of a tournament bid. One of them is bound to pull a major upset. But who? Paging Mr. Abrams and Mr. Chism.

11) Villanova playing in Philadelphia is better than 1-seed. This team is NOT afraid of meeting up with Pitt in the Elite Eight. Not one bit. They also shouldn't discount a scrappy trio of teams (American, VCU, and UCLA) in their way of a potential showdown with Duke. Yes, I actually just called UCLA "scrappy". Compared to the last three years, that's a compliment for this team.

12) Don't fall too in love with Eric Maynor and the VCU Rams pulling the "automatic upset" just yet. Even you Seth Davis. Darren Collison is the better PG on the floor, college-wise, if 100% healthy. Meanwhile, Larry Sanders will have to bang without picking up cheap fouls. While I like the Rams to win - especially if they shoot the 3 well and guard the 3 even better - the Bruins have several key players remaining (especially Collison and Shipp) from a squad that has made 3 straight Final Fours. Beware of Maynor though. Just ask the Patriots of George Mason. If the Rams start well, they don't lose very often.

South Region
13) Butler and LSU won't be able to keep up with UNC for even a half. Nevertheless, I'm interested to see how UNC manages Lawson - whom I expect to be 100% healthy - in their second round matchup. With the look of the draw, they'll need him healthy by the Sweet 16, especially if Gonzaga rolls in the opening weekend (which is far from automatic).

14) Syracuse vs. Oklahoma is a matchup many are already salivating over in the Sweet 16. Something tells me it won't happen, which would be a shame; especially for bleeding heart Orange fans like myself.

15) Look out for Temple, especially if Dionte Christmas can shoot over the Arizona State zone. The Sun Devils gave up big leads in their past two games, losing against USC in the Pac-10 final. While James Harden is the best player on the court, if he's cold early on, I like the Owls to gring this game out and potentially knock out the 6-seed.

16) If you have any ideas for gauging Clemson and Illinois: let me know, please?

An Unbiased Sweet Sixteen Analysis…UNLEASHED!!!

Pay and I have decided to stick with what works, revisiting last year’s Elite Eight format we enjoyed so much, as we deliver your Unofficial Unbiased Preview to the Sweet Sixteen.

Don’t worry. We aren’t afraid to tick off a few coaches, call out non-professional athletes, or let our gut reactions – not our corporate sponsors or contacts – decide our analysis and perhaps, a prediction or two.

Without further banter, let’s roll!

Thursday’s game get their pub today, with Friday’s slate arriving tomorrow morning.

East Region

Their opening matchups were a little on the easy side, so Terrence Williams and his fellow Cardinals are in for a much tougher affair against the Volunteers.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#1. North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #4. Washington State Cougars [Pay]

Perhaps, the most intriguing matchup of the Round of 16, UNC and WASU has the potential to be the second coming of Kansas and Southern Illinois (Kansas went on to win by the skin of their teeth). It all comes down to tempo and who sets it. If the Tar Heels own the tempo battle, then the score will be in the 70s or perhaps the 80s; however, if the Cougars have any say, the UNC scoreline may be closer to the 56.1 ppg that WASU has allowed this season under the tutelage of Tony Bennett. Over the last three halves of action, the Cougars have undeniably been the East Region’s second-best team after Carolina. They will need to trump their performance against Notre Dame (Luke Harangody wonders how that is possible) and frustrate the heck out of Tyler Hansbrough and obtain production from unexpected sources (e.g. Daven Harmeling, Caleb Forrest and Nikola Koprivica).

Players to Watch: Because he’s still not 100%, all eyes are always on Ty Lawson (who will be shadowed all night by either Derrick Low or Kyle Weaver), whose silky smooth moves split double teams in the backcourt on a regular basis allowing for easy Carolina points. Of course, there’s Wayne Ellington, who has quietly (don’t say that to Clemson) averaged 17 points per contest. Nevertheless, the key player for Carolina in this tournament run is none other than Danny Green (11.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 44 blk, 42 stl), who is the nation’s most influential 6^th-man and can change a game with his energy on both sides of the floor. He will likely be challenged by senior forward Robbie Cowgill who has had an up-and-down season. Meanwhile, the Tar Heels must be concerned with Taylor Rochestie’s ability to get on a hot streak from behind the arc. Though more than a few can light it up from three-point range, none can shoot at Rochestie’s 44% clip. What teams often forget is that Rochestie can make decisions with the best of them (146 assists to 54 turnovers) once defenses begin to overplay his deep shot.

Moment of Truth: If UNC finds itself down late in the first half due to a high turnover amount, what changes will Roy Williams make? On the flipside, if WASU is down by double digits entering the break, do they continue their deliberate style or go small to up the pace and maximize possessions? If the Cougars can punish the Tar Heels for liberal ball-handling, get three players in double figures and avoid foul trouble, then they have a chance. Of course, it’s important to know that the Cougars were 0-5 against UCLA and Stanford, teams who have dominant bigs who can be mentioned in the same breath as Psycho T.

#2. Tennessee Volunteers vs. #3. Louisville Cardinals [Clement]

As the only region to hold seed, one might think the East Region is the toughest out there. Not so fast. While the Tar Heels have been nothing but lights out their first 80 minutes of PT, the 2-seeded Vols have been far from impressive. Struggling against Jeff Jones and American was borderline embarrassing, especially considering how the Eagles were completely dominant on the glass. Transition to Sunday and the Vols nearly coughed up a second-half double-digit lead before narrowly escaping Butler (Mike Green, could you miss so many gimmies like that ever again?) in OT. Fortunately, the region regains its momentum with the phenomenal play of the Cardinals. Keep in mind that Rick Pitino is as savvy a coach remaining in the tournament field. With his team playing EXACTLY how Pitino knew they could, this is a lethal team that presses, passes, and hits deep threes at will.

Players to Watch: Chris Lofton’s injury may or may not end up being a big deal. Whether his “leg injury” limits his time or his range is extremely important for the Vols. There’s no better way to quiet a streaky three-point shooting team (like Louisville) than to knock down early shots and encourage them to force up rushed shots of their own. As for Pitino’s bunch, if you know anything about me – and my feelings towards Louisville – you’d know I have both of my eyes constantly, for better or worse, focused on Edgar Sosa. Whether he can play intelligent or not is pinnacle to his team’s ability to step up from above average to sublime.

Moment of Truth: When either team faces that early 19-11 deficit (and trust me, one of these teams undoubtedly will), will there reaction be panic or steely resolve? In a game likely to be filled with momentum shifts and runs, the team that can adjust in the half court and isolate the best shot opportunity for each possession will walk away the victors.

West Region

Westbrook's flair for the dramatics - on both sides of the ball - must be present for the Bruins to end Cinderella's run.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

#3. Xavier Musketeers vs. #7. West Virginia Mountaineers [Clement]

It’s no secret that I’ve been calling out nearly every major media pundit (ESPN, CNNSI, CBSportsline, etc.) for labeling the Musketeers as a potential “Cinderella” story. Obviously, no true upset occurs any earlier than a 6/11 matchup (and when teams like Villanova are a #12 seed, additional requirements must be filled). However, I can’t blame the media for not loving what Xavier brings to the table. Despite choking away the end of their season (two bubble-busting losses to St. Joe’s) in A-10 play, the Musketeers have senior leadership, tremendous guard play and tournament pedigree. It doesn’t take Bob Knight to realize that those are three vital components for a championship contender. Meanwhile, on the PHSports bubble for quite some time, WVU rode a wave of momentum through the Big East Tournament semi-finals (including an impressive W over UCONN) and were seemingly under the radar to an overrated Arizona squad and given far too little a chance against the Dookies [sic]. Meanwhile, despite lacking any sufficient depth, the Mountaineers have a tourney-tested coach (sans his thugs), a dynamic scorer in Joe Alexander and resolve after battling through arguably the nation’s most competitive conference.

Players to Watch: We all should know the big names (Alexander, Burrell, Lavender, Duncan, & Butler) by now. However, each team possesses vital role players – whether starters or reserves – that are key to each reaching the Elite Eight. For the Musketeers, Derrick Brown (11 & 7) might draw the unenviable task of Joe Alexander duty (good luck). Just as important as staying out of foul trouble for Brown is Xavier’s need for him to crash the boards on offense and add some garbage points to their scoring total. As for the Mountaineers, I’m remembering back to Xavier’s classic 2^nd-round matchup versus the Buckeyes. I’m remembering the clutch threes that ultimately blew Xavier’s late lead and buried the A-10 representatives. So, who is most likely to deliver that from Coach Huggins’ country boys? Alex Ruoff is that guy. Around 3 for 7 a game from behind the arc, he has the ability to hit those shots that cut deficits or break the backs of opponents. That’s a lethal combination when the Elite Eight is on the line.

Moment of Truth: My question for the Musketeers, my personal selection to win this game by double-digits, is how they’ll (Xavier) react in the final, not the first, ten minutes of the first half. While WVU has shown lights-out shooting in the second half, I want to see if Lavender (offensively) and Burrell (defensively) can completely suffocate the overachieving WVU guards. Adjusting against an unbalanced Duke is one thing; however, if Duncan stays out of foul trouble, Xavier’s balanced attack on both sides of the ball will be far too much for the Mountaineers to overcome in the second-half.

#1. UCLA Bruins vs. #12. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers [Pay]

The Hilltoppers enter Thursday are gunning for their 30^th victory. Enter UCLA. While conventional wisdom suggests that #12 seed Western Kentucky has little chance to advance, their perimeter shooting and ability to cause turnovers provides real hope. Additionally, Josh Shipp and Russell Westbrook have struggled mightily in their last three games. As a result, two players – Darren Collison and Kevin Love – scored 40 of their 51 points on Saturday night against Texas A&M. Though much credit goes to Mark Turgeon’s young men, if a repeat offensive performance occurs on Thursday night, UCLA’s exit will dominate water cooler conversations on Friday morning. That’s because the Hilltoppers can score (77.3 ppg and shoot it from behind the arc (six leading scorers shot 38% or better in the regular season).

Players to Watch: We all know to watch for Kevin Love when he winks for the camera going into every other media timeout. In all seriousness, Josh Shipp must regain his beloved mid-range jumper if UCLA wants to cut down nets in San Antonio. Even if Westbrook struggles offensively, he is too much of a defensive stud to let that get to him. For Western Kentucky, Courtney Lee will likely be gloved by Westbrook, so Tyrone Brazelton, who has been the Hilltoppers’ best player in the NCAA Tournament, must continue to be aggressive, but, at the same time, make good decisions.

Moment of Truth: When the ball is tipped, which Western Kentucky will we see? Will we see a team who feels fulfilled by simply making it to Phoenix or a team with a chip on its shoulder that is continuing to seek respect for its institution and conference? Many intangibles, including (dare I say) whistles must not go in UCLA’s favor for WKU to continue dancing. In all honesty, I see this as a three-possession game until the final three minutes.

See you Friday morning with the treatment for the Midwest and South regions!

Until next time…