NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 15, 2009 -- 3am edition

It’s another day in the books and it’s another day in which I do not buy Memphis as a #1 seed. Even without Jerome Dyson, UConn is the better team using the “Eye Test” (which lazy pundits love to use as ammo) because they are stronger at every position on the floor, except for perhaps shooting guard. They are obviously the better team on paper, but of course … games aren’t played on paper … they are played inside TV sets.

Staying on the 1 line, Louisville EARNED the Big East double, which easily undoes the unsightly losses that invaded their resume in 2008. While they still go through shooting slumps, this is a different team because they play defense for 40 minutes. On December 27, 2008, I placed Louisville as high as I could (a #2 seed) without being forced into an insane asylum. The average seed according to the Bracket Matrix Tracker for the week of December 29, 2008 was 6. My rationale in 2008 was as follows:

“One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.”

Moving to the 2 line, it was a tough choice at the tail end between Syracuse, Kansas and Villanova. The run by Syracuse legitimized earlier wins against Kansas, Memphis and Florida. Coupled with neutral court wins against UConn and WVU (and a trip to the Big East Tournament Final), the Orange trumps any set of wins by Kansas (best win: @ Oklahoma sans Blake Griffin) and Villanova (v. Pitt).

While today was not a big moving day, two teams capitalized on their opportunities. USC completed the improbable and defeated its 3rd straight tournament team in succession and claimed the automatic bid from the PAC 10. The result was moving from the 4th team out to a #9 seed. Ohio State manhandled Michigan State, who looked awful in Indianapolis and went up from a 10 to a low #7 seed.

Throughout the course of the day, the 62nd and 63rd teams in the field became clear to me. First, Texas A&M had built enough good will to overcome one very bad half against Texas Tech. Despite the loss, A&M was buoyed by Missouri’s championship run, because the Aggies only defeated them a week ago in College Station. Second, at the end of the day, Penn State just has too many quality, even if all of them happen to be against Big Ten teams. Penn State had a 4-3 record with two away wins against the three teams who scored 11 or more conference wins in the regular season. That was the deal maker for Penn State, who of course tried to schedule the Xenon Int’l School of Hair Design Fightin’ Barbers. Based on a determination made last night, I had rated St. Mary’s above Arizona and Creighton, which granted them the 64th spot. Unfortunately, the determination for the 65th slot was not as simple. For now, San Diego State is the 65th team by a slim margin over Arizona followed by Auburn (who lost today) and Wisconsin (who has a strong SOS, but no really strong wins) with Creighton trailing further back. The ultimate decision came down to how these teams played in the face of urgency. While Arizona lost 5 of 6 down the stretch (4 to clear tournament teams), San Diego State won their last three regular season games, defeated the tournament host in Round 1, avenged a regular season sweep by the #1 seed in Round 2, and fought to within one basket of taking down a very good Utah team. At the end of the day, if Arizona wins one of those five games, there is no conversation whatsoever about whether they are in. They did not.

Assumed Winners for Sunday’s Games
Duke, Tennessee, Stephen F. Austin, Purdue

If the Underdog Wins …
ACC Final: Duke v. Florida State. Duke will stay on the 2 line, but will likely fall 1-2 spots. If Florida State pulls off the upset, they will force their way onto the 3 line, likely forcing Oklahoma to the 4 line.

SEC Final: Tennessee v. Mississippi State. Tennessee would fall at least a seed line and Mississippi State would claim a spot on the 12 or 13 line. Good luck to the 4 or 5 seed who would have to face Jarvis Varnado.

Southland Final: Stephen F. Austin v. UT-San Antonio. If UT-San Antonio punches the surprise ticket, then they will be a 16 seed who may have the honor of being in the play-in game, likely against Chattanooga, who has the most losses in the field and made the most of an unearned homecourt advantage during the Southern Conference Tournament.

Big Ten Final: Purdue v. Ohio State. If this game did not end 20 seconds before the pairings are announced, then it might have a real impact on seedings. Depending on how Ohio State, they may rise as high as the final 5 seed or fall to an 8. This may also have an effect on the 7th Big Ten team.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Boston College, Maryland, Texas A&M, Penn State

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
USC, Michigan, Cleveland State, St. Mary’s

Have comments? Send them to phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, LOUISVILLE (Big East), Pittsburgh, UConn
2: Duke (ACC), MEMPHIS (C-USA), Michigan State, Syracuse
3: Kansas, Villanova, Missouri, Oklahoma
4: Washington, Wake Forest, Florida State, GONZAGA (WCC)
5: Purdue (Big Ten), Xavier, Arizona State, Clemson
6: West Virginia, Tennessee (SEC), UCLA, UTAH (MWC)
7: Illinois, Texas, Marquette, Ohio State
8: Butler, BYU, LSU, California
9: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), USC (PAC 10), Oklahoma State, Michigan
10: Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Maryland
11: TEMPLE (A-10), UTAH STATE (WAC), CLEVELAND STATE (Horizon), St. Mary’s
12: Texas A&M, Penn State, San Diego State, VCU (CAA)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), AMERICAN (Patriot), WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
14: NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), BINGHAMTON (America East), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky), AKRON (MAC)
15: ROBERT MORRIS (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: MORGAN STATE (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CAL STATE NORTHRIDGE (Big West), ALABAMA STATE (SWAC), CHATTANOOGA (Southern)

IN: USC, Akron, Cal State Northridge
OUT: Auburn, Buffalo, Pacific

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Penn State, St. Mary’s, San Diego State
Last Four Out: Arizona, Auburn, Wisconsin, Creighton
Next Four Out: Mississippi State, Tulsa, Virginia Tech, Niagara

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 7/12
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
A-10: 3/14
Horizon: 2/10
SEC: 2/12

Desperation is a Stinky Cologne

Georgetown and Cincinnati confirmed that notion this evening.

After holding a firm 15-point lead in the Garden, Georgetown blew it. Plain and simple. Though they were hard done by a timeout that should not have been granted and a foul that was not in the last 15 seconds of regulation, it never should have even been a game at that juncture. Three letters summarize my thoughts. N-I-T. JT3 should pay back his salary a la Bob Knight. His players looked clueless and underprepared in the closing minutes.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State won a must-win game against fellow bubble team Kansas State behind the leadership of senior guard Byron Eaton. 15 for 15 from the charity stripe. 'Nuff said.

At Cameron Indoor, Duke was behind for much of the night but they seem to be in firm position with under a minute left behind some hot shooting by Kyle Singler. In an amazing development, Leonard Hamilton is still wearing his tie.

Also, Maryland, Ohio State, Utah and Syracuse are knotted up in close games, all with severe at-large bid implications.

The Future’s For Discovering: Big East Bubble Breakdown and Pre-MSG Forecasting

To date, a conservative estimate posits that no less than five Big East teams have punched their ticket for March Madness and no more than five teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at Madison Square Garden. That leaves a whopping six teams vying for additional at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions. For that reason, I underlined two projected upsets that may be controversial.

IN: UConn, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Villanova
OUT: Seton Hall, St. John’s, South Florida, Rutgers, DePaul
NOT YET IN: Providence, Syracuse, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Georgetown

Providence 17-11 (9-7)
Key Wins: v. Pittsburgh, v. Syracuse, Cincinnati (2x), Rhode Island
Remaining Games: @ Rutgers (W), @ Villanova (L)
Projected Record: 18-12 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-4

Syracuse 20-8 (8-7)
Key Wins: Florida (N), Kansas (SA), @ Memphis, v. Notre Dame, v. West Virginia, Georgetown (S)
Remaining Games: v. Cincinnati (W), v. Rutgers (W), @ Marquette (L)
Projected Record: 22-9 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

West Virginia 19-9 (8-7)
Key Wins: v. Villanova, @ Ohio State, @ Georgetown, v. Providence, v. Notre Dame
Remaining Games: @ South Florida (W), v. DePaul (W), v. Louisville (W)
Projected Record: 22-9 (11-7)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Cincinnati 18-10 (8-7)
Key Wins: Georgetown (2x), v. West Virginia, v. Notre Dame, @UNLV, v. UAB
Remaining Games: @ Syracuse (L), @ South Florida (W), v. Seton Hall (W)
Projected Record: 20-11 (10-8)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 0-5

Notre Dame 16-12 (7-9)
Key Wins: Texas (N), Louisville (S), Georgetown, @ Providence
Remaining Games: v. Villanova (W), v. St. John’s (W)
Projected Record: 18-12 (9-9)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 1-5

Georgetown 15-12 (6-10)
Key Wins: @ UConn, v. Memphis, @ Villanova, Syracuse (S), v. Providence, Maryland (N)
Remaining Games: @ St. John’s (W), v. DePaul (W)
Projected Record: 17-12 (8-10)
Record v. Big East Top 5: 2-4

As a result of this exercise, West Virginia finishes alone in 6^th place. Three teams tie for a 10-8 regular season mark. If the tie-breaker of choice is each team’s record against the other three, here is how it would break down.

Providence: 3-0 (7^th seed)
Syracuse: 1-1 (8^th seed)
Cincinnati: 0-3 (9^th seed)
Notre Dame earns the 10^th seed and Georgetown takes the 11^th.

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

West Virginia: Absolutely nothing (if they defeat Louisville in the season finale)
Providence: Win at least 1 game (win would have to be against Notre Dame) and advance to quarterfinals
Syracuse: Nothing (barring no costly injuries)
Cincinnati: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Syracuse) and advance to quarterfinals
Notre Dame: Win 2 games (2nd win would be against Providence) and advance to quarterfinals
Georgetown: Win 1 game; 2nd win (would be versus West Virginia) would lock up a certain bid with road/neutral wins against UConn, Villanova, West Virginia and Maryland.

2008 NCAA Projections - March 12, 2008

Last night, the committee arrived in Indianapolis. Tomorrow, they will submit their list of “lock teams”. As of the end of play on Tuesday night, we estimate that the teams listed in seed lines #1-7 are considered to be “locks” for the NCAA Tournament. While I love what Kentucky has done, they are truly one injury away from being on the outside looking in despite an impressive 12-4 record in the SEC and having crushed the subjective eye test since the Vanderbilt debacle.

That leaves 18 bids for the taking. What does that mean? In brief, the next four days of basketball will go a long way in determining who is in and out (Sunday is not a big moving day for tournament seedings, unless your name is Joe Lunardi and the clock has just struck 5:50pm ET). In other words, no team beyond Mississippi State excluding automatic bids are safe.

Here are Paymon’s early thoughts …

• If teams are considered by team and not WCC #3, it will be hard to unseat St. Mary’s.
• Davidson deserves a massive jump in the seedings because they took care of business. Because some bubble teams will win unexpectedly, they will likely become a #10 seed.
• The fate of VCU and South Alabama from here on out may be determined by their opponents who have games yet to play. The decider is multifactorial. First, VCU won its conference by 3 games. Second, they won three neutral/away games in non-conference play.
• I’m having a difficult time understanding why Arizona State is out of Joe Lunardi’s bracket. They earned the #5 seed in the nation’s best conference; a conference which uses a round-robin scheduling mechanism. In doing so, they defeated the conference’s #2, #4, #6 and #7 (sweep) teams in addition to the A-14’s #1 team. In a field with such a dearth of good wins, the Sun Devils don’t have enough bad losses to counteract their good wins.
• If Florida and Ole Miss BOTH make the SEC semifinals, it will be a play-in/elimination game.
• While results are important, scorelines on the neutral court play a role as well. If a team such as Ohio State loses badly against Michigan State, then their recent home resume-padders are diluted. This may result in an invitation to the Not Important Tournament.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, which is highlighted by over ten hours of opening round coverage of the Big East Tournament, Clement tackles four games that are on his mind. To no one’s surprise who reads this blog religiously, we start with …

1) Big East Tournament: Syracuse vs. Villanova
-Far from fans of South Alabama and Gonzaga after Monday Night, the Orange and the Wildcats both sit at 9-9 in the Big East. Both own a win on the other’s homecourt, both have underachieved quite a bit this season and both are in just about every media pundits “last four out”. This game obviously appears to be an elimination game. The loser stands little to no chance of securing anything but a 2-seed in the NIT. In fact, the winner may simply be the Big East team first left out. A win over Georgetown would be vital for either to stake a truly legitimate claim. The problem is: if all these at-large bids keep closing up, is a semi-final appearance truly enough for either Big East .500 squad?

2) Big East Tournament Opening Round: West Virginia vs. Providence
-A home win against Pitt this past week almost assuredly locked the Mountaineers into the last “safe bid” in the Big East. Right? Not so fast, especially when you consider how strong the media has been pushing them onto the bubble and their somewhat hidden #5 seed in the Big East Tournament. Not to mention that 10+-win in the Big East is nice, but not as nice considering they now play an 18 game schedule (thank you, Doug Gottlieb). Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. Providence knocked off UCONN within recent memory and is a rather dangerous #12 seed. If WVU loses, and perhaps Syracuse, Villanova or a surprise team makes a Big East run, could WVU be entrenched in bubble fever come 6pm on Sunday night? My inside sources tell me yes (thank you, Peter Vecsey).

3) Pac-10 Tournament Opening Round: Arizona vs. Oregon State
-Typically, there wouldn’t be any consideration given to a team as terrible as the Beavers this season. However, with their loss to Oregon this past Saturday night, #2 SOS Wildcats (come on, that’s their motto these days), opened the door for potentially two Pac-10 teams with losing conference records getting in (it’s never happened to one Pac-10 team before). The one thing Arizona can do to help itself most is crush OSU and take out the “are-they-struggling” Cardinal. The worst: lose to Oregon State and any SOS may have to go straight out the window.

4) A-10 Tournament Opening Round: Charlotte vs. Rhode Island
-In A-10 play, Xavier is easily a sure-fire tournament team. However, the rest of the conference appears much murkier than it did only six weeks ago. In fact, this matchup of #6 Charlotte vs. #11 Rhode Island may lead to an interesting quarterfinal matchup against #3 UMass. The Minutemen appear the safest bet to acquire an at-large bid, for now. In truth, eyes will be focused intently on potential upsets that could prevent a tricky A-10 final four: Xavier/St. Joe’s & UMass/Temple could. A nightmarish scenario unfolds if Dayton upsets top-seed Xavier in the quarterfinals. Don’t even get me started on that…

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Tennessee (SEC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10)
2: Kansas (Big XII), Texas, Duke, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Wisconsin (Big Ten), Louisville, Xavier (A-10), Stanford
4: UConn, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Drake (MVC)
5: Purdue, USC, Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon)
6: Washington State, Indiana, Pittsburgh, Marquette
7: Clemson, Kansas State, Gonzaga, Mississippi State
8: Kentucky, BYU, Kent State (MAC), Miami-FL
9: Arizona State, Oklahoma, Davidson (Southern), Arkansas
10: Baylor, Arizona, UNLV (MWC), St. Mary’s
11: Texas A&M, Villanova, West Virginia, Illinois State
12: Ohio State, Temple, VCU, George Mason (CAA)
13: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit), Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: Cornell (Ivy), San Diego (WCC), UC Santa Barbara (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC)
15: American (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South)
16: Portland State (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Morgan State (MEAC), Alabama State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Illinois State, Ohio State, Temple, VCU
Last Four Out: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s, UMass
Next Four Out: Syracuse, Dayton, UAB, Ole Miss
On The Radar: Maryland, New Mexico, Florida

IN: Western Kentucky, San Diego, VCU
OUT: South Alabama, Oregon, St. Joseph’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 5/12
West Coast: 3/8
Big Ten: 5/11
ACC: 4/12
Mountain West: 2/9
Missouri Valley: 2/10
Colonial: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

Bubble Breakdown in the Power Conferences

Can the PAC 10 actually have seven bids? TaJuan Porter thinks so.

Credit: Digital Headbutt

With conference play coming to a close in the six major college basketball conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big XII, PAC 10, SEC), it's time to debunk a huge myth. To be brief, I'm talking about a team's overall conference record. In conferences with unbalanced scheduling (e.g. Big East), some teams get fat on the weakest of teams who do not even get invited to the postseason conference tournament at Madison Square Garden. Others may face the elite teams more than once, and in the cases in which they face them once, it's at the opposition's venue.

In this breakdown, conferences are dissected to determine through resumes that are about as clear as mud heading into an exciting week of conference tournaments that should provide not only a great deal of excitement but plenty of clarity.

ACC
IN: UNC, Duke, Clemson, Miami
Bubble: Virginia Tech, Maryland

Virginia Tech
Record vs. IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: @ UNC, v. Duke, @ Clemson, v. Miami

Maryland
Record vs. IN: 1-4
Wins: @ UNC
Losses: Duke (2), v. Clemson, @ Miami

* Virginia Tech swept Maryland this season

Analysis: Despite being a game up and holding a season sweep over the Terrapins, Maryland has a slight advantage in that they have better wins. Not to mention, they are the only team to defeat Carolina with a healthy Ty Lawson. Nevertheless, both Maryland (1-6) and Tech (0-6) are abysmal against the RPI Top 50.

Big XII
IN: Texas, Kansas, Kansas State
Bubble: Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas A&M

Oklahoma
Record vs IN: 0-4
Wins: None
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas, v. Kansas State

Baylor
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Kansas State
Losses: Texas (2), @ Kansas

Texas A&M
Record vs. IN: 1-3
Wins: v. Texas
Losses: @ Texas, v. Kansas, @ Kansas State

* Against like teams, Oklahoma is 3-1; Texas A&M is 2-2; Baylor is 1-3.

Analysis: Of these three teams, A&M is the only one with a signature win. Of the three, Oklahoma is winning the eye test, but could change with another injury to a key player. Additionally, the Sooners hold 3 more (six) wins than their bubble counterparts over the RPI Top 50. A three-game stretch that included wins over Gonzaga, Arkansas and West Virginia push them near a lock status for a NCAA bid.

PAC 10
IN: UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
Bubble: Arizona State, Oregon, Arizona

Arizona State
Record v. IN: 2-6
Wins: v. Stanford, v. USC
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), @ USC

Oregon
Record v. IN: 1-7
Wins: v. Stanford
Losses: UCLA (2), @ Stanford, Washington State (2), USC (2)

Arizona
Record v. IN: 3-5
Wins: Washington State (2), @ USC
Losses: UCLA (2), Stanford (2), v. USC

* Against like teams, Arizona State is 3-1; Oregon is 3-1; Arizona is 0-4.

Analysis: First, can the PAC 10 send seven teams to the NCAA Tournament? Despite going .500 in what I consider to be the toughest conference this season, Arizona State boasts a humble RPI of 74. Yet, they hold wins over Xavier, Stanford, USC, Oregon and a season sweep of Arizona. As for Oregon, they have went 3-0 in March to reach 9-9 in conference, but possess a shoddy non-conference resume (best win: @ Kansas State) with bad losses against Nebraska and Oakland. In Tucson, the Wildcats are just 3-7 in their last ten, but have battled injuries and hold the nation's #2 strength of schedule. A season's sweep of Washington State doesn't hurt either.

Big East
IN: Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse, Villanova

West Virginia
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Marquette, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: v. Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ UConn, @ Pittsburgh

Syracuse
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Georgetown, v. Marquette
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, @ Notre Dame, v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh

Villanova
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. UConn, v. Pittsburgh
Losses: @ Georgetown, @ Louisville, v. Notre Dame, v. Marquette, @ Pittsburgh

* Against like teams, West Virginia is 1-1; Syracuse is 1-2; Villanova is 2-1.

Analysis: With six teams from the Big East considered to be already included in the field of 65, three teams are jockeying for one, possibly two spots. The eye test nod goes to West Virginia, because they have lost the fewest games. Meanwhile, their best win is at home against Marquette. Both Syracuse and Villanova are 9-9, yet seem to hold stronger in-conference resumes against the best six teams. Will the Mountaineers have to do more than simply avoid defeat in the 1st round? If UConn defeats Cincinnati later today, then Syracuse and Villanova will play each other in an elimination game with a right to face off against regular season champ Georgetown.

SEC
IN: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss

Arkansas
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

Kentucky
Record v. IN: 2-3
Wins: v. Tennessee, v. Vanderbilt
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Vanderbilt, @ Mississippi State

Florida
Record v. IN: 1-4
Wins: v. Vanderbilt
Losses: Tennessee (2), @ Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State

Ole Miss
Record v. IN: 2-2
Wins: v. Vanderbilt, v. Mississippi State
Losses: @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State

* Against like teams, Arkansas is 2-2; Kentucky is 3-1; Florida is 1-3; Ole Miss is 2-2.

Analysis: On February 11, one cavalier bracketologist projected Kentucky to be in the field of 65 stating that 11 SEC wins was not out of the question. Well, he (I) was wrong. They got 12 SEC wins. While there are valid arguments against Kentucky (best away win against South Carolina - RPI: 148 and the injury to Patrick Patterson), this team is resilient. Arkansas is likely in barring a collapse. As for Florida and Ole Miss, both have work cut out for them, but are capable of stealing consideration for an at-large bid should either (but not both) make the SEC Final.

Big Ten
IN: Wisconsin, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue
Bubble: Ohio State

Ohio State
Record v. IN: 2-5
Wins: v. Purdue, v. Michigan State
Losses: v. Wisconsin, @ Michigan State, Indiana (2), @ Purdue

Analysis: As Clement noted in our conversations last Sunday before deciding upon the last bracket, Florida and Ohio State had a great opportunity to right the ship this week. It turns out that we picked the wrong team. While the Buckeyes are not a lock, the Selection Committee loves March victories against bona fide tournament teams regardless of the venue and rates them very close to the "true value" of the team.

Wednesday Night Musings

It's another Wednesday and all the more pivotal with huge games taking place in every corner of the country. We've got our eyes on a few themes.

First, I really hate Duke. Growing up a UNC fan, I normally have little trouble mustering up disgust for the Blue Devils. This year, it's been difficult. Why? Because Mike Patrick is unwatchable and he covers EVERY GAME! That said, kudos to whomever gave Greg Paulus a black eye. That's what he gets for incessant instigation and flops (Coach K calls it "leadership"). Meanwhile, UVa just broke a six-minute scoreless streak and Duke is up 12 at JPJ.

Second, could there be a changing of the guard in the Patriot League? The conference staples, Bucknell (AKA Bucky ... sorry, Wisconsin ... go beat Kansas as a #14 seed and you'll get the name back) and Holy Cross are road dogs in the Patriot League Conference Tournament, which topped off at 7pm. Right now, Bucky is down 10 at the half to Navy and Holy Cross is up 5 after the first media timeout at top-seed American.

Third, from the bubble, here are some early one-liners ...

• Patrick Patterson, who? Kentucky is up 9 at the half at South Carolina. Realistically speaking, the 'Cats can't shoot 63% or better in the second half - not even against the 'Cocks.
• In a game that Miami badly needs, they're down 7 to BC Rices. Tyrese has 18 of the Eagles' 27 points at the half. If my math is correct, that's a greater points percentage than his output on Saturday versus North Carolina.
• Dayton blew an early 12-point lead and is tied at St. Bonaventure.
• Will Jim Boeheim write the sequel to "How To Blow A Double-Digit Lead in Three-And-A-Half Minutes"? It's possible.
• UMass apparently doesn't want to be a part of the A-14. They are actually winning in a game that they are supposed to win.
• I wish I had ESPN Full Court, so I can hear Ron Franklin utter the words, "It's Bedlam". Beyond being "Bedlam", Oklahoma is in the NCAAs with a win and no further injuries. It's a tall order against a Cowboys squad that is rejuvenated and playing at home.

Checking back in at 8:45pm

• Jack McClinton has awaken from his slumber! Once down by 11 in the 2nd half to BC, the 'Canes are now up 8. Both teams are streaky, so don't be shocked if Miami blows this with five and change to go.
• Minnesota took a brief lead at Indiana on Senior + Eric Gordon Night. Yes, the whole purpose of this one-liner was to take a knock at one & down players. I had to.
• Hopes fading fast for Bucky. Down 6 with 2 to go at the Naval Academy. You can go ahead and shred the pages on the Patriot League in the Blue Ribbon Yearbook.
• Temple and Dayton are doing their best to live up to the standard of losing must-win games and have this be a 2-bid league.
• The 'Cuse lead is down to single digits and Clement is likely pulling his hair out.
• Mississippi State is up 3 late in the 1st half at Vanderbilt. Despite their 2-6 mark against the top 50, if the Bulldogs win this one, they are absolutely in the NCAA Tournament in everyone's mind.

9:30pm

• Kentucky, Dayton, Temple and Miami score crucial wins this evening. At 8-7 in the ACC with a signature win against Duke and holding non-conference wins versus VCU on a neutral court and at Mississippi State, Miami is a 99.9% lock for the NCAAs. As for Joe Crawford, who Clement highlighted in this article earlier tonight, he shot 10-for-19 from the field and sank 11 of 12 from the charity stripe en route to a cool 35 in Columbia.
• Syracuse actually holds on. Does it speak to how well the Orange played or how much control that Bobby Gonzalez has lost from Seton Hall?
• American eeks out a close one against Holy Cross. The Jeff Jones Dream is still alive. Perhaps, one mid-major from the DC area will make the NCAA Tournament.
• Meanwhile, once dead, Bucky fights on. They're in the 3rd OT with Navy. The Midshipmen's Greg Sprink had 32 points after regulation.

...Clement hacks in at 10:05pm...

• Florida is up 55-45 on Tennessee at the half. How? Shooting 68% from the field and hitting 7 of 12 from behind the arc doesn't hurt. Not to mention, Bruce Pearl's squad has 11 team fouls (including several starters with two a piece).
• Mississippi State and Vandy are notched at 74 as we enter (at least) 5 minutes of OT. The SEC is on fire tonight!
• Plenty of teams avoided a costly upset (Indiana, Duke, Notre Dame, Memphis, and Wisconsin appears to be joining them, already up 34-17 on Penn State at the half).
• Bucky took down #2-seeded Navy out of the Patriot League in 3 OT 87-86. What an incredible quarterfinal pair of matchups this conference offered up today. [I am intensely loyal to Bucknell forever due to the victory over Kansas in the '05 tourney.]
• New Orleans beat Denver. NBA Playoff implications? Nah. Just good ole' fashioned Sun Belt Conference action. GOTCHA!
• Tony Crocker did his best Blake Griffin impersonation tonight. Sooners with a nice W in Stillwater.
• Yes, I'm a Cuse fan. They held on due to opportunistic rebounding late; however, they turn the ball over WAY too much to beat ranked-Marquette...even with maybe 30,000 screaming fans in the Dome this weekend.
• I'm pumped for the CAA Awards tomorrow. It can't just be me, can it? Any predictions on Defensive Player of the Year? Anyone?
  

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

Pay is back at 10:55pm and he thanks Verizon Online DSL for a service stoppage.

• On the Bucky win, John Griffin nailed a desperation 40-footer to seal that victory. If that's not what Bucky is all about, then I don't know what is.
• Up 8 with less than two minutes to go, it looks like A&M is going to get a much-needed road victory against Baylor. The Aggies have held the Bears to 34% from the field. Curtis Jerrells has a grand total of 7 points.
• JaJuan Smith and Chris Lofton are stepping up in the second half on senior night. It's too bad that this is Florida's senior night. With under three minutes in regulation, Tennessee holds a slim advantage. Even if they win this game, Tennessee is failing the subjective "eye test" despite the second strongest set of wins (Texas).

Final words at 11:15pm

• While it's great to win close games, Bruce Pearl has to be slightly concerned. I understand that it's been a hellacious 11 days dating back to the Memphis game, but I expect more poise in March from the Volunteers.
• Big Winners: Texas A&M, Miami, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Shan Foster, A-14, Tony Crocker
• Big Losers: Florida, Baylor, Mississippi State, Navy
• Under the Radar: UAB, Houston

The Bubble: 7 Minutes in Heaven or …

As we welcome the entrance of the “mid-major” conference tournaments and the final weekend of play for the “big timers” [Duke/UNC anyone?], there are more than enough teams clinging to desperate hopes of a bid on Selection Sunday .

Some have seen their entire conference struggle down the stretch (that’s you, A-10), others have watched promising seasons wash away (Syracuse), while others have seen the highest of the high and lowest of the low (Texas Tech beats Texas and loses to Oklahoma & Kansas by over 100 points combined in the span of a week).

Nevertheless, there are plenty of schools out there – from those aforementioned “power conferences” – which need as many as 3 or 4 more wins to secure a selection.

While it remains to be seen if teams like Syracuse, Villanova, Texas Tech and St. Joe’s have put themselves in a position to only secure a bid via the automatic circuit (i.e. winning their conference tournament), at least, we have drama.

Along with that drama are the anticipated performances of star players. For, as you will soon see, X-factors on the bubble are not your key swingman off the bench or even your third option.

It’s the #1 guy, stud or dud, who might have to pull a Gerry McNamara and will their team into the NCAA Tournament.

Maryland – Grievis Vasquez

Capable of a triple-double most nights...with turnovers likely the third statistic.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Game(s): March 9 - @ Virginia
Comment: Vasquez has the unique ability to keep both teams on the floor in the game (thanks Kevin Sheehan of Redskins Radio for that gem). The Terps can ill afford a letdown on the road in Charlottesville, as they don’t have the playmaking ability required to make a deep ACC Tourney run.

Syracuse – Donte Greene

Three straight seasons on the bubble has fans grimacing more than Boeheim.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Game(s): March 5 - @ Seton Hall, March 9 – Marquette
Comment: Sadly, it took Greene nearly 30 games into his freshman year in upstate New York to abandon the idea of chucking up sixteen 3-balls a game. Unfortunately, Cuse’s 6-man rotation has reeked [sic] havoc on their play in conference. Likely needing to sweep this week and make as many as 2 or 3 major statements in New York in two weekends, it may be two years in a row Syracuse is toiling with NCAA tournament talent in the NIT.

Ohio State – Jamar Butler

From star to role player to star again. The circle of college basketball life.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Game(s): March 9 – Michigan State
Comment: Pay and I made sure to target in our talking points that Ohio State was afforded a tremendous opportunity drawing ranked-Purdue and Michigan State in the final week of the regular season. Holding serve at home against Purdue Tuesday night went a long way in affording the Buckeyes a crucial banner win. Pulling the upset at home on Saturday versus the Izzos would almost assuredly secure them a tournament bid. Jamar Butler’s 25 against Purdue will need to be repeated, at least, for the Spartans to fall on Saturday.

St. Joseph’s – Pat Calathes

You can't spell A-10 without hustle. Oh wait, maybe you can.
Credit: CollegePublisher.com

Remaining Game(s): March 6 – Xavier, March 8 – @Dayton
Comment: Their 1-point loss to Temple on Sunday night hurt the entire conference potentially. Even worse, the Hawks may wind up on the wrong side of every conceivable bracket projection after losing two games this week they’re more than likely not favored to win. In fact, their showdown at Dayton will almost assuredly knock one of at-large bid contention. That is, unless the Hawks can strike down the top-10 Musketeers and potentially expose their #2 or #3 seed potential.

Kentucky – Joe Crawford

Now that he's hurt (Patterson), we can mention the "other" Kentucky Wildcats.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Remaining Games: March 5 - @South Carolina, March 9 – Florida
Comment: You’ll notice more than a little symmetry with the next two teams. Kentucky lost Patrick Patterson for the season and still played Tennessee to a close 3-point game in Knoxville. Suddenly, that 39-point loss to Vanderbilt back before Valentine’s Day seems a distant memory (or does it?). Much like Maryland and their UVA game, Kentucky can’t afford to fall into the trap-door game at South Carolina tonight. As for Sunday’s matchup with Florida, it’s going to be for more than just positioning in the SEC Tournament. Already losers in OT over a month ago in Gainesville, the Wildcats may not be on the smiling side of the bubble if they drop two of their next three (or worse).

Florida – Marreese Speights & Nick Calathes

So wait, you're telling me that we don't get an automatic bid despite being two-time defending champs?
Credit: TheHype.com

Remaining Games: March 5 – Tennessee, March 9 - @Kentucky
Comment: Almost a mirror image of Ohio State (ironically last year’s national title game opponents), the Gators have plenty of upcoming opportunities this week to impose their will on the Selection Committee. The two-time defending champs have only faced four ranked opponents this season, yet face a potential #1 seed tonight and another bubble team from the SEC East on Sunday. Two losses and even an upset in the SEC Tournament might not be enough for Billy Donovan’s crew.

Dayton – Brian Roberts

Okay, not THAT Brian Roberts. But come on! Catch the fever of O's Baseball!!!
Credit: Journals.AOL.com

Remaining Game(s): March 5 - @ St. Bonaventure, March 8 – St. Joseph’s
Comment: 14-1 seems so long ago. In fact, too long ago (Come back, Chris Wright). One of the ultimate arguments behind closed doors must focus on the Flyers (who at 6-8 in conference right now) own victories @ Louisville and over Pittsburgh (then ranked #6). However, they also have damaging in-conference losses and may end up losing a critical season finale to St. Joe’s. Suppose this team is out by the A-10 semi-finals … good luck keeping them in or out in under three hours of deliberation.

…also considering attention…
Oklahoma State – Byron Eaton
Virginia Tech – A.D. Vassallo
Southern Illinois – Randal Falker
Texas Tech – Martin Zeno
Villanova – Scottie Reynolds

Who is MISSING? It’s not Waldo. However, we’d like to hear YOUR teams and YOUR impact x-factor PLAYERS that will make our jobs as bracket projectionists easier…or much more difficult.

Until next time…

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Top College Basketball Recruiting Classes for 2007

Tonight marks the culmination of events that began in mid-October when teams began practicing with one goal in mind: win the national championship. For Florida or Ohio State, it will become a reality. For everyone else, they can look forward to next year and the fruits of their seemingly ceaseless recruiting pitches.

Data from Rivals.com

1. Kansas St.
***** Michael Beasley, PF, 6-9 235 (1)
***** Bill Walker, SF, 6-6 220 (7)
*** Dominique Sutton, SF, 6-4 195 (97)
*** Fred Brown, SG, 6-3 185
*** Jacob Pullen, PG, 6-1 175

Next year, Kansas State will not be in the discussion as a bubble team, because they’ll have top recruit Michael Beasley playing the 4 for them. Bill Walker should be able to return from injury and the Wildcats should return most of its players. Not to mention, Bill Huggins will have another year to mold his players to his likening.

2. Syracuse Orange
***** Donte Green, SF, 6-9 217 (10)
***** Johnny Flynn, PG, 5-11 170 (22)
**** Antonio Jardine, SG, 6-1 180 (57)
**** Rick Jackson, PF, 6-8 235 (95)
*** Sean Williams, C, 6-11 220

The Orange reloads at every position, with Flynn and Green leading the recruiting class. Syracuse will need leadership at the guard and forward, as they lose crucial starters in both areas. The maturation process of Paul Harris may play a big role in determining how far these Orange may go next season.

3. USC Trojans
***** OJ Mayo, PG, 6-5 215 (6)
***** Davon Jefferson, SF, 6-7 190 (15 – class of 2006)
*** Leonard Washington, SF, 6-6 225 (108)
*** Venoy Overton, PG, 6-0 165
*** Marcus Simmons, SF, 6-4 175

USC was 10 minutes and a couple of fresh bodies away from upending #1 seed North Carolina in the East region. Next year, that excuse won’t apply, as the Trojans have reloaded with speed and skill. Note to Tim Floyd: Keep OJ Mayo on the court and out of trouble.

4. Arizona Wildcats
***** Jerryd Bayless, SG, 6-3 193 (9)
***** Jamelle Horne, SF, 6-7 205 (19)
*** Laval Lucas-Perry, PG, 6-1 191 (128)
*** Zane Johnson, SF, 6-6 200 (132)
*** Alex Jacobson, C, 7-1 223

Lute Olsen is just dying for leadership. He didn’t get it with Mustapha Shakur and he’s hoping that Bayless is more than a one-and-done player. Horne will immediately step into the Marcus Williams role, who’s more than likely NBA-bound. With that said, will Jacobson fill the shoes of Ivan Radenovic, who was by far, the most consistent player on last year’s underachieving roster.

5. Florida Gators
***** Nick Calathes, PG, 6-5 185 (13)
**** Chandler Parsons, SF, 6-8 190 (21)
**** Alex Tyus, PF, 6-8 210 (47)
**** Adam Allen, SF, 6-6 185 (68)

With this recruiting class, you can expect a mass exodus from the Florida player ranks. If Billy Donovan jettisons for Lexington, you can expect at least a couple of de-commits to occur. Meanwhile, the Gators are still chasing 5-star big man Patrick Patterson. Should the Gators land Patterson, they’ll have to be considered a top 3 recruiting class.

ON THE PERIPHERY

Ohio State: It should be no shock to anyone that Thad Matta can recruit. Knowing Greg Oden is very likely to ascend to the NBA ranks this summer, Matta signed Kosta Koufos, a 7-footer with skill who is a 5-star recruit. Matta signed four other young men, all of whom can fight for minutes upon arrival in Columbus.

Purdue: Knowing that his squad lacks size, Matt Painter signed four versatile 4-star recruits, three of which are 6’8” and taller.

Duke: Coach K must’ve known that his team would have scoring problems this season, because he’s snapped up Kyle Singler, who’s considered the most complete recruit entering college basketball next season. After a year’s hiatus, Duke gets a commit from the nation’s top white player. Taylor King can light it up from deep and Nolan Smith provides some badly-needed ball-handling skills.

Indiana: No matter how he got him (google "Gregg Doyel" + "Kelvin Sampson" + "Gordon" and you're golden), Kelvin Sampson landed Eric Gordon, the nation’s #2 recruit according to Rivals. Gordon should make sure that Indiana scores more than 13 points in a half versus UCLA. Sampson also signed imposing center Eli Holman, Jordan Crawford (PG), Jamarcus Ellis (JUCO-SG), and Brandon McGee. Can the talent get Sampson back into the Sweet 16 for the first time in what seems like forever?

Responses to Selection Sunday
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

Bracket Projection Results

TEAMS SELECTED: 63/65 (32/34 at-large)
PREDICTED WITHIN ONE LINE: 49/65
EXACT SEEDS PREDICTED: 27/65

At this time last year, I was not a member of the blogosphere, but I did predict 62 of 65 teams correctly. After last year’s committee focused on conference allocation, I still went with my better judgment rather than unconventional idiocy. I’ll take solace in picking Syracuse and Drexel over the two Big Ten strugglers, Purdue and Illinois.

****
Big Ten love?

When the committee says that it doesn’t look at last year’s results, it’s true when it comes to the Big Ten. If you recall, the Big Ten didn’t even make it out of the first weekend last year. It would be ignorant to suggest that a conference representative won’t make it out of the first weekend, but frankly, the Big Ten was not that good this season. Ohio State and Wisconsin were stellar and the rest were either mediocre of just plain bad.

Sure, Illinois had 11 conference wins, but six were against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn St.). Purdue had 10 conference wins, half of which were against the same bottom three. They even lost a game against Minnesota. How many times did either team defeat Ohio State and Wisconsin? Squadoosh. How many RPI top 25 teams did either team defeat? Squadoosh.

As for Indiana, how on earth do they get a 7 seed? They were 5-8 against the RPI top 50, 5-10 on road and neutral courts, stunk up the court ever since they defeated Wisconsin at home. After that signature win, Indiana went 1-5 against teams not named Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn St. That’s unacceptable, and the Hoosiers were better suited for the 10/11 lines rather than the 7 line.

****
Egregious Seeding Errors

To be honest, this is where the tournament committee really messed up with this bracket. Neither of us work for CBS, ESPN, or any of the networks who might feel they need to show some allegiance towards the selectors. Instead, we're calling them out, specifically the vague Gary Walters (who interviewed terribly on ESPN), for a variety of reasons. Point number of my complaints with this bracket: egregious seeds. We realize they have to protect certain regions and certain potential matchups, but some of the seedings had no excuse. We’ve already pointed out Indiana’s undeserved 7-seed. Let’s analyze four others that stood out as boneheaded mistakes mere seconds after I heard them.

1) Virginia as a 4-seed

This is a talented team, especially the backcourt duo, that clearly got boosted up 2 or 3 seeds. Sure, they took out Virginia Tech and won a share of the regular-season ACC title. But look at these losses down the stretch (@Miami, @Wake Forest, and in the ACC tournament NC State). Away from John Paul Jones, the 'Hoos were just 3-9. Did we stutter? There is no way this team is deserving of the four-seed. Unfortunately, this will become a recurring theme as we study some of the mistakes below.

2) Butler (AKA Miss November) as a 5-seed

Obviously, this seed was a reward for the Preseason NIT, which was almost 6 months ago. They shared the Horizon regular-season title with Wright State and were beaten again in the conference tournament finale by five to the Raiders. Despite being a fun team to watch and beloved by a lot of the media, Butler should be playing in an 8/9 game.

3) UNLV as a 7-seed

Yes, the Mountain West Conference has struggled in the Big Dance since its formation (5-21). However, the Runnin’ Rebels had an impressive RPI (10^th) and won 11 of their last 13 (with losses against San Diego St. and BYU mixed in-between). Look no further than the two teams listed above to see why the Rebels were shafted with the tough 7-seed.

4) Purdue as a 9-seed

What a surprise! Another Big Ten team getting far too much pub for “good losses”. Their RPI (45) is far from attractive as a 9-seed. If you want to talk about good wins out of conference (Virginia and who else?), then you better discuss the bad ones in-and-out (@Indiana State, @Minnesota, @Michigan). Outside of inconsistent-at-best Big Ten play, I really wonder why Purdue was rewarded over VCU, Creighton, Old Dominion, and some other conference champion teams as well as those already being mentioned as being left out.

****
An Overall Poor Job By The Committee

Again, I'm not here to pretend I could do better, but I know people (no, not Joe Lunardi) who actually watched the games and utilized more useful indicators in determining the best 34 at-large teams. With this blog as my podium, I’m also more than in the right to complain and ask the essential question “why?”

Why did Arkansas, according to the tournament committee, merit the final at-large birth [over the likes of Syracuse and Drexel] before the result to the Florida game occurred?

Why did Old Dominion deserve to be in and Drexel be out from the CAA? Why was the CAA given less respect than the A-10 and Horizon League?

Why was Syracuse snubbed from the field entirely? Why did Illinois and Purdue get in with less quality wins, similar futility against the RPI top 50, and weaker road and neutral court production?

Why were only 6 at-large births given to mid-majors after only 8 last year?

Why doesn’t the tournament committee watch the Sunday games in detail?

Was Akron, with that shot-clock discrepancy, completely forgotten with just cause for an at-large bid?

How much will the tournament miss guys like Al Thornton, Cartier Martin, Demetrius Nichols, Frank Elegar, and Mario Boggans (didn’t deserve to be, but an amazing talent)?

****
Clement’s Overall Thoughts

I’m not gonna lie, I’m heartbroken that Syracuse didn’t get in. Even more so with Drexel. With allegiances to my favorite team (the Orange) and my favorite conference (the CAA), I know I’m biased. However, I also believe that the Orange (3 wins against the top 25, 10 wins in conference, & .500 record on the road in conference) had enough quality wins to get in (Georgetown by 14, @Marquette handily, Villanova handily, @Providence on senior night), but I also realize our out-of-conference schedule was lacking as well as having losses to @St. John’s, @UCONN, and Drexel. We did lose games to Oklahoma St. and Wichita St., which turned out to be bad losses in retrospect despite both teams playing very well at the time. [Countless teams hung their seeds and selections on similar early victories and tough in-conference defeats.]

The real travesty (wow, I’m agreeing with Dick Vitale) had to be Drexel who had strong wins (wins @Syracuse, @Villanova, and @Creighton in a BracketBusters game) that outweighed the bad losses (@Penn, @Rider, @William & Mary). Yet, they were criticized for conference play – a double standard when thinking of Illinois, Purdue, Stanford, and especially Arkansas.

Staying with the talking heads, Jay Bilas made a major mistake during Bracketology tonight. Losses to VCU and ODU (even a sweep) are not bad losses for Drexel, since both teams are in and deserved to be in the tournament. An ever bigger error was from Doug Gottlieb, who is ten times better on radio than on TV. He claimed Air Force was snubbed. All they had to do was win one of their last four games and they folded.

In the end, I’ll ride my VCU Rams as long as they can go and enjoy the tournament as much as I can. Even with the obvious insight that ‘Cuse & Drexel would’ve struggled in tough first-round matchups, I still hate the fact I’ll spend the majority of this tournament rooting against people rather than rooting for them.

Message to Coach Boeheim: Please schedule tougher matchups out of conference earlier outside of New York.

Message to Bruiser Flint: You did everything you could and still got screwed. Screwed.

Ramblings from a Rambler...

Sure, I'm Mr. NFL to most in the blogsphere...but it isn't that way once March Madness hits.

While my allegiance is almost always with the Orange up in Syracuse...this year has been downright disastrous when it's mattered the most. Tourney hopes are pretty weak at this point. Without an amazing winning streak to end the season (@Providence, Georgetown, and @ Villanova)...there's little to no chance we're in.

And then of course there's my VCU Rams. I'm a current graduate student there, already with an undergrad degree wrapped up, and I have been fiercely loyal to the team, even Derrick Reid, since I've been here. We saw a CAA Title a little over 3 years ago and man did it feel good to be there. Back when guys like BA Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa were freshman. Fast forward to 2007 and the two seniors have been a little flat as of late (especially losing at Hofstra, at ODU, and a pathetic drubbing from Bradley just last night in this year's Bracketbuster).

The conference tournament is merely a week away, of game-action (just under two weeks on the calendar), with a putrid schedule remaining for the league's top teams. Shame on the CAA (yes, SHAME) for this horrific lineup. Hofstra, Mason, ODU, Drexel, and VCU (yes, the big guns of the conference) won't see each other post-Bracketbuster.

Why did this happen? Probably so the "big-guns" would have a week of softies in order to be better prepared for showdowns in the conference tourney. Point is: I don't like it. I don't expect any upsets whatsoever this week...foolish or not.

So where would that leave us? [Assuming everyone wins out with their remaining two in-conference matchups]

#1. VCU [16-2] #2. ODU [15-3] #3. Hofstra [14-4] #4. Drexel [13-5]

That is your elite four of the CAA. Impressive. All worthy of a bid, in my opinion, in the NCAA Tourney. Problem is, they aren't all worthy enough to take away spots from the POWER conference squads who have a quality win or two...yet were as inconsistent as they could've possibly been with their talent (ironic, Syracuse fits that bill quite well).

Don't worry, this isn't a true Clement-tirade. I don't have the patience. I just feel frustrated when a 16-13 team gets in over someone who is 25-5. It happens. Of course, we all realize that BCS-team might be more talented and more built to compete in its major conference. But we don't take into consideration how many chances it got to beat great teams. Mid-majors get one or two major matchups a year. Usually on the road and VERY early on in the season. Good luck with that. Check in with a team like Alabama, Syracuse, Duke, Gonzaga (no longer a real mid-major), South Carolina, Oklahoma, or Michigan...and they got half-a-dozen or more marquee matchups. I get even more upset when I see two mid-level Big Ten schools get a juicy 12pm Saturday tip on ESPN while a mid-major showdown sees ESPN on one Bracketbusting Sunday.

It's just politics with the haves and have-nots. All I will say to each of the four major-contenders to the CAA tournament is this: Show up in Richmond for three days, win the conference tourney, and avoid the agony of being on the bubble.

-VCU lacks a real quality win outside of the CAA and its past 10 might not look to attractive...especially losing at home to a superior Bradley squad (5th in the MVC).
-ODU could be on-fire, but might fall early in the tourney if the refs limit their physicality.
-Hofstra has some BAD losses and may be seen as too live-or-die with their backcourt.
-Drexel seems to have the weakest resume, despite a nice win v. Creighton, in a conference that will only get 2-bids in a best-case scenario.

All of these teams, for ANY sort of hope at an at-large, must lose a nail biter in the conference tournament to have a prayer. It makes for what could be an amazing final two days in Richmond during the CAA Tournament. Hope you have ESPN 8 to be able to see any of them.

Because honestly, even with George Mason of last year (which still doesn't get nearly enough credit for what it did)...neither of the three other teams (or four if Mason makes a similar miracle run) has much of a realistic shot of getting love on Selection Sunday.