Your UNOFFICIAL Colonial Athletic Association Conference Tournament Preview

It doesn’t take any reader of this blog very long – whether viewing daily or yearly – to recognize a friendly bias towards the CAA.

And why not? We have alums from Mason and VCU working hard to spread the good word of one of America’s most underrated conferences. The term mid-major isn’t going anywhere, although this conference is looking to change that perception via their postseason impact.

Need I remind you all of what a certain George Mason team did in 2006? [Hint: FINAL FOUR!]

To a lesser extent, USC fans (not to mention, Sam Clancy) won’t forget the name Brett Blizzard, Duke fans are sick and tired of Eric “The Dagger” Maynor, and Aaron Coombs would haunt Maryland fans if it weren’t for the heroics of Drew “St.” Nicholas.

UNC-W's Brett Blizzard may have been the best mid-major performer of the last 10 years. Seriously.
Credit: BlizzardAcademy

Nevertheless, championship weekend in the CAA kicks off early Friday afternoon with a few snoozers (we’re not exactly getting UP for Northeastern vs. James Madison). Fortunately, there is hope on the horizon as Saturday may have an upset or two in mind (not likely, as you’ll see below) and Sunday could potentially offer up what could become a tantalizing pair of appetizers before the conference championship game gets the royal treatment on The Ocho.

While it’s too early to start predicting results (or is it?), let’s take a look at what the conference’s twelve squads have to offer this weekend, and perhaps, determine their chances of cutting down the nets and earning one of the nation’s first automatic qualifying bids.

We’re not predicting any losing record squads to go all the way, but they deserve their just due. Call me crazy - or a hater (I prefer hata’ by the way) - but I have a hard time NOT envisioning a 1/4 vs. 2/3 semi-finals. In case you didn’t know, the conference only sports (sadly) 4 teams with overall winning records this season.

#12. Georgia State

-Thought to be an up-and-coming squad, Georgia State has a knack for losing games in the closing minutes time and time again. An enticing matchup against an overachieving William & Mary squad may afford them the opportunity to pull off a Friday afternoon upset.

#11. James Madison

-In shambles after a surprising start (they did beat VCU back in 2007), the Dukes have a lame-duck coach and a roster that lacks athleticism at most positions. While Northeastern is far from a juggernaut, both teams are on different sides of the CAA universe during the last two months.

#10. Drexel

-Easily the biggest disappointment of the season, Drexel lost key senior leadership and, surprisingly, any form of last season’s dominant interior presence from 2006-07 Defensive Player of the Year, junior Frank Elegar. You’d think a team with Bruiser Flint riding them would be a darkhose to pull a few upsets this weekend (at least the pro-Bruiser media would), but the Dragons will be fortunate to be competitive ten minutes into a game they may not reach on Saturday.

#9. Towson

-A lot can be gained in their 8/9 matchup against Hofstra, especially considering VCU will garner some mild national interest as the Rams have a decent chance of securing an at-large bid (although that becomes far less likely with a quarterfinal choke-job). While thoughts of CAA-legend Gary Neal have vanquished, the Tigers still have enough athleticism to make it to Satuday.

#8. Hofstra

-After losing last year’s Player of the Year, Loren Stokes, to graduation, Hofstra clearly stood on the fence of pre-season rankings for the conference. It should come as no surprise that they enter the tournament as an uneven 8-seed. What isn’t a surprise is the stellar play of likely CAA 1^st teamer Antoine Agudio. If you can make it to any of Hofstra’s games, he’s easily worth the price of admission alone.

#7. Delaware

-Every year, I wonder if the Blue Hens will make a legitimate tournament run. Outside of a mild upset here or there, Delaware has been far from amazing since joining the conference. While Herb Courtney provides presence in the paint, they appear a rather easy matchup for 10-seed Drexel to pull of the potential “upset”. Although, it must be stated that Delaware’s overall record is a little flawed since several talented transfers after December 15.

#6. Northeastern

-To be honest, the only true interest Northeastern offers for us is the potential for a quarterfinal rematch with recent regular season foe George Mason. Why you ask? Northeastern stunned Mason (sort of) by 11 points on Saturday and cost the Patriots the 2-seed and their wildest of pipe dreams of at-large consideration. Honestly though, that result might not make much of a difference, as Mason in recent years has been able to turn on impressive play for their annual weekend in Richmond in early March. Northeastern may not even reach that matchup if they overlook at nothing-to-lose JMU squad.

#5. William & Mary

-10-8 in conference is a definitive step up for the Tribe; however, 14-15 overall means the NIT won’t even consider them. Yet, if the Tribe is serious about contending in conference in the coming seasons (and alleviating some anxiety from certain VCU fans), they need to control the pace of their 5/12 matchup early and often (remember, Georgia State loves to play you close) and then give self-proclaimed darkhorse-ODU a real run for their money in an under-the-radar 4/5 matchup. This weekend will go a long way in determining the next few seasons for William & Mary basketball in the CAA.

…now for the big boys…

#4. Old Dominion

Pros: Seemingly the hottest teams in the conference before last Saturday, those illusions were swept under the rug after being manhandled on both sides of the balls and the boards at UNC-Wilmington. Coach Blaine Taylor’s squad doesn’t have the starpower of year’s past; however, they have the right blend of talent to give VCU, in particular, fits in the semi-finals. A relatively easy road there should leave the Monarchs more than ready for their 3^rd matchup of the season with the Rams (each winning on each other’s home court).

Cons: ODU can live and die by the three-ball. Despite having a talented bench, that is often the result of less than stellar starters. Only sophomore Gerald Lee has been a consistent scorer in and out of the paint this season. Hitting clutch shot after clutch shot last month against VCU, ODU still clanged two key free throws in the closing seconds and walked away victors only after an apparent no-call on an obvious arm slap on Eric Maynor (ODU won by 1 at the Siegel Center, the only conference opponent of the Rams to do so). ODU’s early schedule (UNC, Georgetown, Louisville) tested them for high-pressure conference tourney moments; nevertheless, they have shown they will play down to their lesser opponents just as often as they’ll play up to their elite ones.

#3. George Mason

Pros: Three key performers remain from the Final Four-squad of 2006; especially PF Will Thomas (the conference’s top interior performer) and Folarin Campbell (the best shot-maker in the conference…when he’s on). Always capable of three good days during the second weekend in March, the Patriots have a proven coach and plenty to play for. Not to mention, they are the only CAA team to not lose to #1-seed VCU. There’s a reason they are a consistent second choice to win this conference tourney.

Cons: Sloppy play down the stretch has erased any at-large considerations for the Patriots. Collapsing against Ohio in their bracketbuster was inexcusable and a late-season loss to Northeastern was downright embarrassing. Although, that’s the exact motivation this team needs entering this weekend. Campbell has been uneven this past month and Mason often becomes far too streaky from behind the arc (hello, Dre Smith!). It remains to be seen if they can perform for 40 minutes for three straight days.

#2. UNC-Wilmington

Pros: Anybody who’s been to a CAA Tournament this millennium knows that the teal t-shirts of UNC-W flood the Coliseum. In fact, per capita, it’s not even close who draws the most fans year in and year out. After a horrific 2006-2007 season, the W swept Mason and earned the tie-breaker for the #2-seed. Interestingly enough, it allows a likely third matchup with Mason in the semi-finals. TJ Carter’s playmaking ability is well known to GMU fans, as is UNC-Ws recent ability to continuously foul the Patriots in the blocks without repercussion from the zebras. After last season’s embarrassing run, UNC-W is hungry to perform well in a tournament that has treated them exceptionally well the last half-dozen years.

Cons: UNC-Wilmington was handled on the road and at home in the second-half of both of their games against VCU. Even though they swept George Mason, we all know how annoying it is to hear about beating a team three times in one season, no matter the sport. More importantly, if the refs handcuff the physicality in the paint of Todd Hendley and Vladimir Kuljanin (or their palming of the ball nearly every position), Wilmington has shown it can lose to lesser opponents badly (Drexel, JMU by 20+, and Delaware).

#1. Virginia Commonwealth {VCU}

Pros: VCU’s perimeter game is led by a dynamic scoring duo of junior PG Eric Maynor and combo senior guard/forward Jamal Shuler (also a lockdown defender). Both are able to score away from the basket and at times appear unstoppable while driving to the basket. Eric Maynor is a lock for Player of the Year and has the ability, unlike any other player in the conference, to carry his team the entire weekend on his back to a championship. The Rams have won this tournament two of the last three seasons and been a staple in the finals the past five seasons (including two wins over George Mason and a loss to ODU). Anthony Grant is 1 for 1 so far in winning CAA Tournaments, while seniors Michael Anderson and Will Fameni both appear healthier and sharper, especially Anderson, than in weeks and months past. Freshmen Larry Sanders also is 10^th in the nation at 3 blocks a game.

Cons: VCU’s inside game has shown plenty of holes. If Maynor can be contained on the perimeter (Mason displayed that blueprint flawlessly) or Shuler finds foul trouble/erratic shooting early, the Rams may have to depend on wildly inconsistent freshman like PG Joey Rodriguez and PF Larry Sanders (who lacks any true offensive post-up game). Both should be limited to 4-5 key plays a game, at best. In fact, Rodriguez has appeared a downright liability at times in the closing moments of games. CAA pundits know that George Mason always plays VCU extremely well and was the only CAA foe the Rams couldn’t knock off (to be fair, they played only once, in Fairfax). ODU also stunted a ton of VCU momentum (who couldn’t equal their 16-2 conference mark of last year thanks to the Monarchs) with their big-time W in late February. If the paint is unkind to the Rams, they may not be able to shoot their ways out of early deficits on Sunday or Monday. Despite defending the 3-ball better than any of the other 340 teams in Division 1, the Rams often become far too reliant on the deep ball at times.

???Projection???

VCU is, but does not have to be, the favorite to win the tournament after winning their last three games in impressive fashion (8 of 9 overall as well). Despite it being held less than five miles away from their home court (Siegel Center) at the Richmond Coliseum, the Rams may not necessarily have the most fans in attendance during all stages of the weekend. Eric Maynor, the likely CAA Player of the Year, has anchored the Rams to a potential at-large birth, but that is FAR from set in stone. It’d be a mistake not to consider the experience of 2007 tournament runner-up George Mason as well, especially considering it took a Herculean effort from Maynor in the closing minutes in last year’s finals to push the Rams to victory over the Patriots. UNC-W and ODU obviously have the talent and coaching to punch their ticket to March Madness as well. What I don’t see is the big-time upset on Saturday or continuing through Sunday…which almost assures us of one. Enjoy the tournament!

Until next time…

Thursday Game Previews

We are just an hour and a half from the start of the first games of the 2007 NCAA Tournament. Today, we look at five games on our radar that should be on yours as well.

At day's end, the tournament field will have shrunk from 64 to 48 and sixteen dreams will have ended with others looking forward to fulfillment on Saturday. Without further ado, here are today's previews.

#5. Butler vs. #12. Old Dominion [2:40 pm] Midwest Region
- The question for me is, “Which ODU team will come out?” If it’s the team that won 12 in a row leading up to the CAA Tournament, Vasylius, Williamson, and the boys will be too much to handle for Miss November. Butler absolutely needs AJ Graves to get out of the funk he left on Wright State’s home court. The guard matchups up will be key as well as Vasylius’ ability to assert himself on the offensive end.
Deciding Factor: ODU’s ability to cause turnovers and get Dahi back on track.

#6. Duke vs. #11. VCU [7:10 pm] West Region
- Likely to get a ton of deserving national attention, VCU has a golden opportunity to try and really test this underachieve Duke squad. Yet, don’t let the Blue Devils fool you…they’re still loaded with talent. VCU will have to shoot 40% or better from the three-point line and their three bigs (Anderson, Fameni, and Roland) must stay out of serious foul trouble.
Deciding Factor: Duke’s ability, or inability, to handle the VCU press.

#8. Marquette vs. #9. Michigan State [7:20 pm] East Region
- The game to get UNC. Never underestimate Tom Izzo (23-8 record in the NCAA Tournament), despite how youthful this team is this season. Dominic James and Drew Neitzel are a pair of dynamic backcourt players who should be seen by anyone with a television set. Important to note, Michigan State is fourth in the nation in scoring defense and should be able to out rebound the Golden Eagles due in large part to this.
Deciding Factor: The sprained thumb of Marquette guard Jerel McNeal, clearly the team’s top defender, may strip Marquette of too prized of a possession against the pesky Spartans.

#8. BYU vs. #9. Xavier [9:30 pm] South Region
- I have to admit, I’ve seen these teams play a combined four times this season. In that short time, I realize that the 3-ball will be hoisted early and often. Both teams shoot above 37% as a team from behind the arc and run very fluid offenses. The teams are absolutely even when it comes down to the major categories. It will be a battle of wills between Keena Young and Stanley Burrell.
Deciding Factor: Lavender’s ability to exploit the BYU guards on both sides of the ball and bench play.

#7. Indiana vs. #10. Gonzaga [9:40 pm] West Region
- Two things jump out to me. Indiana’s abysmal road/neutral court record (5-10) and their record since the Wisconsin victory against non-bottom three teams in the Big Ten (1-5). I’m not that keen on Gonzaga either. While they’ve regrouped as a team since the suspension of Josh Heytvelt, Kuso has little chance of stopping DJ White. In the end, if Gonzaga has a lead late, the free throw shooting of Derek Raivio and leadership of Jeremy Pargo will be too much for the struggling Hoosiers.
Deciding Factor: Pargo vs. Wilmont.

Responses to Selection Sunday
by Chris Clement and Paymon Hashemi

Bracket Projection Results

TEAMS SELECTED: 63/65 (32/34 at-large)
PREDICTED WITHIN ONE LINE: 49/65
EXACT SEEDS PREDICTED: 27/65

At this time last year, I was not a member of the blogosphere, but I did predict 62 of 65 teams correctly. After last year’s committee focused on conference allocation, I still went with my better judgment rather than unconventional idiocy. I’ll take solace in picking Syracuse and Drexel over the two Big Ten strugglers, Purdue and Illinois.

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Big Ten love?

When the committee says that it doesn’t look at last year’s results, it’s true when it comes to the Big Ten. If you recall, the Big Ten didn’t even make it out of the first weekend last year. It would be ignorant to suggest that a conference representative won’t make it out of the first weekend, but frankly, the Big Ten was not that good this season. Ohio State and Wisconsin were stellar and the rest were either mediocre of just plain bad.

Sure, Illinois had 11 conference wins, but six were against the bottom three teams (Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn St.). Purdue had 10 conference wins, half of which were against the same bottom three. They even lost a game against Minnesota. How many times did either team defeat Ohio State and Wisconsin? Squadoosh. How many RPI top 25 teams did either team defeat? Squadoosh.

As for Indiana, how on earth do they get a 7 seed? They were 5-8 against the RPI top 50, 5-10 on road and neutral courts, stunk up the court ever since they defeated Wisconsin at home. After that signature win, Indiana went 1-5 against teams not named Minnesota, Northwestern, and Penn St. That’s unacceptable, and the Hoosiers were better suited for the 10/11 lines rather than the 7 line.

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Egregious Seeding Errors

To be honest, this is where the tournament committee really messed up with this bracket. Neither of us work for CBS, ESPN, or any of the networks who might feel they need to show some allegiance towards the selectors. Instead, we're calling them out, specifically the vague Gary Walters (who interviewed terribly on ESPN), for a variety of reasons. Point number of my complaints with this bracket: egregious seeds. We realize they have to protect certain regions and certain potential matchups, but some of the seedings had no excuse. We’ve already pointed out Indiana’s undeserved 7-seed. Let’s analyze four others that stood out as boneheaded mistakes mere seconds after I heard them.

1) Virginia as a 4-seed

This is a talented team, especially the backcourt duo, that clearly got boosted up 2 or 3 seeds. Sure, they took out Virginia Tech and won a share of the regular-season ACC title. But look at these losses down the stretch (@Miami, @Wake Forest, and in the ACC tournament NC State). Away from John Paul Jones, the 'Hoos were just 3-9. Did we stutter? There is no way this team is deserving of the four-seed. Unfortunately, this will become a recurring theme as we study some of the mistakes below.

2) Butler (AKA Miss November) as a 5-seed

Obviously, this seed was a reward for the Preseason NIT, which was almost 6 months ago. They shared the Horizon regular-season title with Wright State and were beaten again in the conference tournament finale by five to the Raiders. Despite being a fun team to watch and beloved by a lot of the media, Butler should be playing in an 8/9 game.

3) UNLV as a 7-seed

Yes, the Mountain West Conference has struggled in the Big Dance since its formation (5-21). However, the Runnin’ Rebels had an impressive RPI (10^th) and won 11 of their last 13 (with losses against San Diego St. and BYU mixed in-between). Look no further than the two teams listed above to see why the Rebels were shafted with the tough 7-seed.

4) Purdue as a 9-seed

What a surprise! Another Big Ten team getting far too much pub for “good losses”. Their RPI (45) is far from attractive as a 9-seed. If you want to talk about good wins out of conference (Virginia and who else?), then you better discuss the bad ones in-and-out (@Indiana State, @Minnesota, @Michigan). Outside of inconsistent-at-best Big Ten play, I really wonder why Purdue was rewarded over VCU, Creighton, Old Dominion, and some other conference champion teams as well as those already being mentioned as being left out.

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An Overall Poor Job By The Committee

Again, I'm not here to pretend I could do better, but I know people (no, not Joe Lunardi) who actually watched the games and utilized more useful indicators in determining the best 34 at-large teams. With this blog as my podium, I’m also more than in the right to complain and ask the essential question “why?”

Why did Arkansas, according to the tournament committee, merit the final at-large birth [over the likes of Syracuse and Drexel] before the result to the Florida game occurred?

Why did Old Dominion deserve to be in and Drexel be out from the CAA? Why was the CAA given less respect than the A-10 and Horizon League?

Why was Syracuse snubbed from the field entirely? Why did Illinois and Purdue get in with less quality wins, similar futility against the RPI top 50, and weaker road and neutral court production?

Why were only 6 at-large births given to mid-majors after only 8 last year?

Why doesn’t the tournament committee watch the Sunday games in detail?

Was Akron, with that shot-clock discrepancy, completely forgotten with just cause for an at-large bid?

How much will the tournament miss guys like Al Thornton, Cartier Martin, Demetrius Nichols, Frank Elegar, and Mario Boggans (didn’t deserve to be, but an amazing talent)?

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Clement’s Overall Thoughts

I’m not gonna lie, I’m heartbroken that Syracuse didn’t get in. Even more so with Drexel. With allegiances to my favorite team (the Orange) and my favorite conference (the CAA), I know I’m biased. However, I also believe that the Orange (3 wins against the top 25, 10 wins in conference, & .500 record on the road in conference) had enough quality wins to get in (Georgetown by 14, @Marquette handily, Villanova handily, @Providence on senior night), but I also realize our out-of-conference schedule was lacking as well as having losses to @St. John’s, @UCONN, and Drexel. We did lose games to Oklahoma St. and Wichita St., which turned out to be bad losses in retrospect despite both teams playing very well at the time. [Countless teams hung their seeds and selections on similar early victories and tough in-conference defeats.]

The real travesty (wow, I’m agreeing with Dick Vitale) had to be Drexel who had strong wins (wins @Syracuse, @Villanova, and @Creighton in a BracketBusters game) that outweighed the bad losses (@Penn, @Rider, @William & Mary). Yet, they were criticized for conference play – a double standard when thinking of Illinois, Purdue, Stanford, and especially Arkansas.

Staying with the talking heads, Jay Bilas made a major mistake during Bracketology tonight. Losses to VCU and ODU (even a sweep) are not bad losses for Drexel, since both teams are in and deserved to be in the tournament. An ever bigger error was from Doug Gottlieb, who is ten times better on radio than on TV. He claimed Air Force was snubbed. All they had to do was win one of their last four games and they folded.

In the end, I’ll ride my VCU Rams as long as they can go and enjoy the tournament as much as I can. Even with the obvious insight that ‘Cuse & Drexel would’ve struggled in tough first-round matchups, I still hate the fact I’ll spend the majority of this tournament rooting against people rather than rooting for them.

Message to Coach Boeheim: Please schedule tougher matchups out of conference earlier outside of New York.

Message to Bruiser Flint: You did everything you could and still got screwed. Screwed.

Hopes Dashed and Revived - Clemson and Oregon

On Thursday night, two fading squads who badly needed victories on their home court against Power 16 teams had a dissimilar fate. By the end of the night, hopes were shot in Clemson while they were revitalized in Eugene.

Clemson continued their sharp ACC descent as they lost at home to Duke. While the Tigers and their fans may lament three missed Duke travel calls, one mistaken travel call against them, and a mistaken basket interference call; however, how do you get down by 23 to a team that does not know how to score consistently? Credit the fans at Littlejohn Coliseum for never giving up in the pursuit of a comeback. Also, credit Duke for buckling down on defense whenever the lead got to within two baskets.

Just minutes from halftime, Oregon trailed Washington State by double digits. When losing 6 of 8 games in a cut-throat conference, character is needed to overcome such deficits against quality opponents. Not giving in, the Ducks rallied behind Tajuan Porter to defeat the surging Cougars. Putting things in perspective, Oregon avoided being 8-8 in conference and should be in the tournament given their resume.

Additionally, following up on the Wednesday post, the 3rd best resume belonged to West Virginia, who averages a 9-seed according to a collection of bracket projections at the Comparing the Seeds page (link on the right). The first was Old Dominion and the second was Illinois. Something to think about as we move closer to the final stretch of the regular season.