Week in Review: Ides of March...Madness

Been a busier week than usual here at PHSports.

First off, check out the NEW POLL top right of the page. Vote on!!!!

Picture of the Week: Wesley Johnson flying high against the Zags

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Let's check in on what transpired...

1) Pay posted his final bracket projections.
--> As always, job well done. 64 of 65 teams.
--> Pay's reflections can be found HERE.

2) I reflected upon Fab Five Memories and highlighted some potential for the week ahead.

3) Running commentary resumed. Highlights below...
--> Thursday
--> Friday
--> Saturday (I and II)

4) Kansas BUSTED some brackets with their loss on Saturday.
--> STONES: thy name is Ali Farokhmanesh.

5) Syracuse was impressive early Sunday afternoon.

Reflections on This Year’s Bracket Projections

From my biased view, it was another successful year for PHSports’s bracket projections. While readership was down, comments increased. When the brackets were released, PHSports finished an admirable 17th out of 83 brackets.

Like many, I was left scratching my forehead when A-10 regular season and postseason champions Temple were given a #5 seed and a matchup with a senior-laden Cornell squad. Clement and I still can’t tell how Notre Dame got a #6 seed, but they did earn a date with an undesirable opponent in ODU. Also, we have no clue how Duke’s resume was better than that of Syracuse, or West Virginia and Ohio State (WITH Evan Turner, which is how they should have been evaluated).

I was appalled by the laziness of the committee in putting two Big East in the same sub-region TWICE.

Back to our performance this year. What did I do differently?

First, I watched less basketball, in comparison with the last 3 years. Yes, I didn’t stutter. In 2006 (and a few years prior), before PHSports was on the World Wide Web, I did bracket projections for my own edification. The catch was that I was on international travel for 2 weeks during January, was completing graduate school, and even went out of town during Selection Sunday weekend. Had I posted my bracket, it would have finished first. By a lot. Why? Because I probably watched as much basketball as the members on the committee evaluating teams, meaning I did not peel as many layers of the onion (i.e. examine all available data) as many of my colleagues in the bracketology community.

Second, I avoided the horserace journalism mentality of updating brackets every week during the conference season. This year, mostly due to time constraints and life choices, I chose to update brackets once every two weeks during the regular season. I cannot tell you the number of times that I saw sites – great and awful – overseeding teams who had a 2-win week and then crushed them for a letdown the following week.

Third, I factored in whether a team either won a share of a conference or won outright. This is why I was one of the few who gave Maryland a #4 seed. This is why UTEP, Utah State, and Cal (#8 seed, my behind) were all in my field with zero hesitation.

Fourth, to gather data, I populate team-specific index cards (yes, I’m old school) including school name, team record, conference record, injuries / suspensions, RPI, Pomeroy rating, key wins and losses. This year, I noted whether a team won their conference, as well as their record against the RPI Top 50, and record against the RPI Top 100. Late Saturday night / early Sunday morning, I recognized that Tennessee was 2-5 (wins against Kansas, Kentucky at home) against the Top 50, and moved them from the 4 to the 5 line.

Fifth, I conducted a more thorough final examination of teams from the one-bid conferences, usually residing along seed line #s 13 through 16. In 2009, when you plow through the data, PHSports’s final projections were as good as nearly everyone else (if not better) for the first 12 seed lines. When it came to those last four seed lines, I was among the worst. This year, PHSports did not reach world-beater status, but because we addressed this concern, the site finished ahead of some of the big guns.

So what will we not change? Of course, PHSports spots relevant statistical trends almost as fast as Usain Bolt runs, and we’ll continue to do that. We’ll also continue to encourage our readers to study the data, and not just point out the elements within the data that support an assertion (yes, I’m talking to you, UAB fan, and to several Minnesota haters).

Until next year, stay classy San Diego.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections (FINAL) -- March 14, 2010

The games have been played and the tournament field will be revealed. We delve into some key themes.

#1 Seeds
The top overall seed, Kansas, is a no-brainer. Despite losing to Georgetown, we felt that Syracuse was the 2nd-best based on the strength of their victories. Kentucky then occupied the 3rd #1 seed. Finally, we had a tough choice between West Virginia, Duke, and Ohio State. Again, by strength of their wins and when they won (@ Villanova, against Georgetown twice, v. a hot Notre Dame, etc.), West Virginia take the spoils over Ohio State and Duke. We would not be surprised at all if Duke gets the nod, because they won a share of their conference's regular season title and the conference tournament.

The Argument for UTEP and Utah State
If you watched either of these teams throughout the season, they are DEFINITELY among the 34 best at-large teams. Each team had 15+ game win streaks during the heart of the basketball season. The sticking point for critics of both teams is who they've played. UTEP is a different team since Derrick Caracter joined the team. Utah State took a while to gel, but they are among the most dominant offensive teams nationally.

Last Four In, Last Three Out
When I completed the seedings late last night, 33 of the at-large teams were decided quite easily. After studying the entire body of work, at-large team #s 30-33 were UTEP, Minnesota, Utah State and California. That left Illinois, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, and Florida.

Ultimately, our deciding point answered the questions, "Who did you play?", "Who did you beat?" , and "How did you play?". If you only looked at the eye test, Virginia Tech would have been the odds-on favorite. If you looked out who you played, Illinois had the best OOC schedule. In the end, Illinois not only challenged themselves the most, but they beat the most teams, and the wins are staggered throughout the course of the season. Do not get me wrong. Mississippi State was fantastic in Nashville and I feel for them, because Kentucky seems to hand-pick referees for SEC games, and I am not sure how DeMarcus Cousins did not foul out of today's game. As far as Virginia Tech's argument that they tested themselves by going on the road to Penn State and Iowa, neither were picked to go to the tournament in the pre-season. Therefore, the argument holds little to no water.

Seeding Conflicts

• Villanova fell from a 3 to a 4 seed, while Purdue went from a 4 to a 3 seed.
  
• Oklahoma State fell from a 7 to an 8 seed, while Marquette went from an 8 to a 7 seed.
• Missouri fell from an 11 to a 12 seed, while California went from a 12 to an 11 seed.

Last Four In
Minnesota, Utah State, California, Illinois

Last Three Out
Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Florida

Seedings (Not Including Conflicts)
1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, West Virginia
2: Ohio State, Duke, Kansas State, Georgetown
3: Baylor, Pittsburgh, Temple, Villanova
4: Purdue, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Maryland

5: Tennessee, Michigan State, Vanderbilt, Butler
6: Texas A&M, Brigham Young, Richmond, Xavier
7: Northern Iowa, Texas, Gonzaga, Oklahoma State
8: Clemson, Marquette, San Diego State, UNLV

9: St. Mary’s, Florida State, Notre Dame, Old Dominion
10: Georgia Tech, Louisville, Wake Forest, Washington
11: Missouri, UTEP, Minnesota, Utah State
12: California, Cornell, Illinois, Siena

13: Murray State, New Mexico State, Oakland, Wofford
14: Sam Houston State, Houston, Montana, Ohio
15: UCSB, Morgan State, North Texas, East Tennessee State
16: Vermont, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Winthrop, Arkansas-Pine Bluff

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- February 22, 2010

After two weeks, the biggest change was seeing Purdue's two road upsets in Columbus and East Lansing. The two wins put them as a clear #4 overall team, who can move even higher if Kentucky falters. Also, despite severe internal resistance, Kansas State was elevated to the final #2 seed. In no way am I big believer in the Wildcats, as I see them as that#2 seed who can go down to the 7/1o winner.

Meanwhile, we began to drink the Virginia Tech Kool Aid. This is a good team, but in no way are they home free. This is about the point in which Seth Greenberg's teams of the past have believed themselves rather than believed in themselves. A few miles west and south, Oklahoma State defeated Baylor at home to squeak into the field. Their key win was at Kansas State; if the Wildcats falter, then there will be collateral damage for James Anderson & Co.

This week, we had two minor victories. First, in a rare show of supporting anything related to Jim Calhoun, we have thought that UConn is an out-and-out tournament team. After some huge victories (and some team play for a change), the Huskies are back on pace to make the tournament. Second, though they still have a ton of work to accomplish, the Minnesota Golden Gophers have a real shot to finish 9-9. Despite failing the eye test (in my opinion), they have the key wins against tournament teams, something that their at-large bid competitors do not have.

One final note is that we again have some bid stealing in Conference USA (this time, Memphis taking the bid) and the Pac-10 (Arizona State). Just missing the mark are Dayton (Duquesne .. ouch), UAB (who can play their way in their last four), St. Mary's, and Rhode Island.

Last Four In: UConn, Oklahoma St., Minnesota, Mississippi St.
Last Four Out: Dayton, UAB, St. Mary’s, Rhode Island
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, San Diego St., Charlotte

Conference Breakdown (multiple bid conferences only)
Big East (8) -- Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, UConn
ACC (7) -- Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida St., Georgia Tech
Big XII (6) -- Kansas, Kansas St., Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Baylor, Oklahoma St.
Big Ten (6) -- Purdue, Ohio St., Michigan St., Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota
SEC (5) -- Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi St.
Mountain West (3) -- New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
A10 (3) -- Temple, Xavier, Richmond
C-USA (2) -- Memphis, UTEP
Pac-10 (2) -- Arizona St., California


Seedings (does not account for seeding conflicts)
1: Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky, Purdue
2: Duke, Villanova, Ohio St., Kansas St.
3: West Virginia, Michigan St., Texas, Wisconsin
4: Pittsburgh Georgetown, New Mexico, Temple
5: BYU, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Maryland
6: Gonzaga, Wake Forest, Missouri, Tennessee
7: Baylor, Xavier, Butler, Northern Iowa
8: Virginia Tech, Illinois, Richmond, Florida
9: Clemson, Florida St., Louisville, Georgia Tech
10: Marquette, Utah St., UTEP, UNLV
11: Old Dominion, California, Cornell, UConn
12: Oklahoma St., Minnesota, Siena, Mississippi St.
13: Arizona St., Memphis, Murray St., Kent St.
14: Oakland, Charleston, Sam Houston St., Coastal Carolina
15: Weber St., UCSB, Middle Tennessee St., Stony Brook
16: Morgan St., Lehigh, Robert Morris, Belmont, Jackson St.

Next Update: When time allows ...

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- February 8, 2010

In the last two weeks, the three best teams -- Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse -- have begun separating themselves from the pack. The most plausible situation is that if Duke wins the ACC regular season and conference tournament, then they will be the final #1 seed. Not far behind are Texas and Michigan State. Both have undergone a rough stretch, but both have not yet waved a white flag and will be in the hunt for a #1 seed all season. Unlike many projections we are seeing, we have left Georgetown off of the top two seed lines because they lack depth and are susceptible to performances like the one against South Florida.

The toughest problem in this bracket was selecting the final three protected seeds (i.e., teams 14-16). BYU, Maryland, and Wake Forest all lack the portfolio of a team that qualifies for that seeding. It is logical to think that the best team in the Mountain West and second-best team in the ACC are good enough for the #4 seed.

In the A-10, we sense that 4 teams in is a plausible option, but 5 (if we would have included Charlotte or Dayton) is too many. Though Charlotte has impressed of late, we are predicting that they will lose at least 3 games before the A-10 tournament. Further, it's worth noting that Louisville was missing 3 guards in their game against Charlotte earlier this year.

In C-USA, UTEP replaces Memphis as the at-large bid. In a two-week span, UTEP won in double OT at UAB and held serve at home against Houston and Tulsa. The Miners play great team defense and have played some of their best games away from home.

In the Pac-10, it has become increasingly clear that no one can predict this conference. That said, we are erring on the side of an at-large bid being stolen during their conference tournament.

Meanwhile, you will see that UConn is in our tournament field. We expect them to go 9-9 in Big East play, which is somewhat of a stretch. In the end, their SOS, name recognition and talent will get them in similar to the way that Arizona got in last year.

Among our last four in, Minnesota and UTEP were relatively simple choices. We think Mississippi State will right the ship and win 10 games in conference which should be enough. The final spot came down to Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, and UAB. Given their relatively weak ACC schedule and their poor OOC SOS, the Hokies need to go 10-6 in conference, or go 9-7 with a signature win. We don't think they will do either. St. Mary's has some decent wins, but to be in the tournament, you have to beat tournament teams. As for UAB, though we called it, their recent form and results has us concerned. Ole Miss showed a lot of character in their comeback win against Alabama, and that was enough (along with a neutral court win against Kansas St.) to hang on by a thread.

Last Four In: Minnesota, UTEP, Mississippi St., Ole Miss
Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s, UAB, South Florida
Next Four Out: Charlotte, Dayton, Cincinnati, North Carolina

Conference Breakdown (multiple bid conferences only)
Big East (8) -- Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, UConn
Big XII (6) -- Kansas, Texas, Kansas St., Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri
ACC (6) -- Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida St.
SEC (6) -- Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi St., Ole Miss
Big Ten (6) -- Michigan St., Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio St., Illinois, Minnesota
A10 (4) -- Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier, Richmond
Mountain West (3) -- BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
C-USA (2) -- UTEP, Tulsa
Pac-10 (2) -- California, Washington

Seedings
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: Michigan St., Texas, Wisconsin, Villanova
3: Purdue, Georgetown, West Virginia, Kansas St.
4: Ohio St., BYU, Maryland, Wake Forest
5: Baylor, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
6: Gonzaga, New Mexico, Temple, Georgia Tech
7: UNLV, Tennessee, Missouri, Cornell
8: Butler, Florida, Northern Iowa, Marquette
9: Clemson, Xavier, Rhode Island, California
10: Florida St., Siena, Louisville, Illinois
11: Richmond, Old Dominion, UConn, Mississippi St.
12: Minnesota, Utah St., UTEP, Ole Miss
13: Washington, Tulsa, Kent St., Murray St.
14: Charleston, Oakland, Sam Houston St., Coastal Carolina
15: UCSB, Middle Tennessee St., Montana, Morgan St.
16: Belmont, Stony Brook, Lehigh, Robert Morris, Jackson St.

Next Update: After games ending on February 21

(Bracket to be posted soon)

The Bracket Outlier Five-Pack ... and then some

This week, PHSports drew some ire for having a few unwelcomed predictions this week. Some of it was deserved. Some of it was passion-filled conjecture.

In this post, we look at our outliers and see how they stack up nearly a week following our predictions. Just so that we're all on the same page, our operational definition for an outlier will be a seed line difference of two or more in comparison with the average seed on the Bracket Matrix, brought to you by The Bracket Project (BPBM).

PHSports's outliers currently bears a very high number. Therefore, we will profile five and summarize the others.

Tennessee
BPBM Seed: 4
PHSports: 6
How we stack up? PHSports looks fairly prophetic. In our January 11 predictions, we docked Tennessee 3 seed lines for dismissing their best player. Since what was perhaps the biggest upset of the season against Kansas, the Vols have come down to earth and lost two games that they may not have with the services of Tyler Smith. The truth is, this is a team which will struggle away from Thompson-Boling, and they'll have to will their way just to be a 6 seed.
Decision: PHSports

Pittsburgh
BPBM Seed: 4
PHSports: 6
How we stack up? Pitt has a very impressive wins, but their loss to Seton Hall should have let you know that they were wildly overperforming and that the home loss to Georgetown let the air out of their tires. While I was not betting on South Florida, I was not shocked to see the scoreline.
Decision: PHSports

BYU
BPBM Seed: 5
PHSports: 3
How we stack up? If BYU is to earn a protected seed (i.e., 4 or better), then they need to win games like Wednesday's tussle at The Pit against the New Mexico. For those that were too engrossed with The State of the Union speech and the choreographed waste that came on after it to see the game, good job. That said, they were outplayed and lost.
Decision: The Field

Vanderbilt
BPBM Seed: 5
PHSports: 8
How we stack up? The Commodores are better than an eight seed after a series of wins in a row, which came to a screeching halt in Lexington yesterday. They have a tricky next 6 games ahead of them that will ultimately decide their fate.
Decision: The Field (by a whisker)

Ohio State
BPBM Seed: 6
PHSports: 4
How we stack up? With Evan Turner, Ohio State is a 4 seed or better. Without him, they are in the NIT (and generally look lost). And they'd be higher had they not blown a double-digit in Morgantown.
Decision: PHSports

*****
They Are Who We Thought They Were:

UAB (BPBM: 8; PHSports: not seeded): Perhaps, we were harsh and short-sighted to think UAB did not deserve a bid. Or, we thought they would start losing games now that they have the target on their chest. UAB can still make the tournament, but they will not make it as an 8 seed. That's ludicrous.

Butler (BPBM: 6; PHSports: 8): If you look at their resume, you will agree with me. And if you know that they beat Turner-less Ohio State, you'll really agree. If they win their BracketBuster, we'll talk, but the Bulldogs will not go undefeated in conference play.


We Should Re-Think Our Decision:

UConn (BPBM: 7; PHSports: 4): We thought they had turned the corner following a victory against Texas. We were very wrong. Despite having watched this team several times (once live), UConn is an unknown quantity, because you don't know what team is stepping onto the floor.

New Mexico (BPBM: 6; PHSports: 11): To be honest, I'm not sure how good this team is. They have one of the biggest home court advantages in college basketball, and their best win away from The Pit is against the 7th best team in the Big XII. If the Lobos lose 2 or 3 more games in conference play (@ UNLV, @ BYU, plus 1), they may candidates for an 8/9 game.

Mississippi State (BPBM: 10; PHSports: 5): At any moment, this team can get hot. That has not occurred and they will be lower than a 5 seed.

Memphis (BPBM: unseeded; PHSports: 11): The loss to SMU was a wake-up call. Gonzaga's loss to San Francisco was a compounder. Why? If Memphis defeats the Bulldogs (a win we still predict), then their win carries less value.

Let February Play Out:

Missouri (BPBM: 8; PHSports: 5): When you look at their resume right now, it's insane to think they're a 5 seed. The truth is, the Tigers' style, depth, and ability to play defense make them a chic pick to flourish in February.

Xavier (BPBM: 8; PHSports: 10): The Musketeers have a critical 5-game stretch (@UMass, @ Dayton, @ Florida, v. St. Joe's, @ Charlotte) that will determine what type of team this is. This program has a taking-all comers mentality, and that will help with seeding, but how much if they don't win them?

North Carolina (BPBM: 10; PHSports: 7): Yes, the Tar Heels have disappointed. And it's been public. More than anything, this was a good faith pick, because Roy Williams knows how to win games. On Tuesday night, the Heels took it to their in-state rivals at the defensive end -- something that has been foreign to UNC's arsenal all season. I think some of my colleagues forgot about their early season wins versus Ohio State and Michigan State. If they can hold form tonight against Virginia, then they will be on the better side of the 7/10 game.

PHSports "Pre-Season" Field of 65

So I realize that the season is well underway. Prior to the season starting, I had developed a field of 65, but did not make the time to post it. That time is now (bracket below).


Prior to our next update (late December / early January), we will post early season observations.



POWER 16
1: Kansas, Michigan State, Texas, Kentucky
2: Villanova, Purdue, Duke, West Virginia
3: Tennessee, North Carolina, Ohio State, Oklahoma
4: Butler, UConn, Washington, Syracuse

LAST FOUR IN: Oregon, Florida, Oregon State, Boston College

LAST FOUR OUT: Pittsburgh, Illinois State, Alabama, UNLV

NEXT FOUR OUT: Seton Hall, Nevada, Old Dominion, Houston

Final NCAA Tournament Bracket Projection Stats

Here is PHSports’s final numbers (unofficial) for this year’s bracket:

Teams correct: 63/65
Exact seeds: 29/65
Seeds within one of seed line: 58/65
Score: 305

Though the final statistics are underwhelming and while I will agree to disagree that Arizona and Wisconsin did not deserve to be at-large teams, I was happy with the overall job that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee did and I was happy with my overall bracket projections. Below, you will see the scores by seeding quadrants. The take-home message: the Committee and I saw eye-to-eye on ranking the protected seeds, but not so much with the last 17 teams (who I admittedly pay less attention to).

Scores by Quadrant

Seed #s 1-4
Teams correct: 16
Exact seeds: 13
Seeds within one of seed line: 16
Score: 90

Seed #s 5-8
Teams correct: 16
Exact seeds: 6
Seeds within one of seed line: 14
Score: 74

Seed #s 9-12
Teams correct: 14
Exact seeds: 5
Seeds within one of seed line: 12
Score: 64

Seed #s 13-16
Teams correct: 17
Exact seeds: 5
Seeds within one of seed line: 16
Score: 77

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 13, 2009

Win & Lock Up A Bid
Minnesota (v. Michigan State)
Virginia Tech (v. North Carolina)
Wisconsin (v. Ohio State)
Michigan (v. Illinois)
Maryland (v. Wake Forest)

New Locks
Boston College, Oklahoma State, Penn State

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Marquette, Michigan

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Texas, Siena

If you have questions, comments, uninhibited hatred, or think I really need some sleep, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Pittsburgh, Louisville (Big East), Michigan State (Big Ten)
2: UConn, Wake Forest, Duke, Memphis (C-USA)
3: Villanova, Oklahoma, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Syracuse, Florida State, Xavier (A-10), Missouri (Big XII)
5: GONZAGA (WCC), UCLA, Illinois, Texas
6: Clemson, Marquette, Arizona State, Butler
7: Tennessee (SEC), West Virginia, California, Purdue
8: Utah, BYU (MWC), Boston College, LSU
9: Oklahoma State, Penn State, Dayton, SIENA (Metro Atlantic)
10: WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt), Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin
11: Creighton, St. Mary’s, Ohio State, Texas A&M
12: Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA), Auburn, CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON)
13: Arizona, NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), PORTLAND STATE (Big Sky)
15: Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Auburn
OUT: UNLV

Last Four In: St. Mary’s, Ohio State, Auburn, Arizona
Last Four Out: South Carolina, San Diego State, Kansas State, Virginia Tech
Next Four Out: Maryland, Temple, New Mexico, Providence
Next Four Out: Florida, Tulsa, USC, Baylor


No Longer Under Consideration: New Mexico, Providence, Notre Dame, Miami-FL, Davidson, Rhode Island, Northwestern

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 4/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
SEC: 3/12
Mountain West: 2/9
West Coast: 2/9
Horizon: 2/10
MVC: 2/10
A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 11, 2009

After the thumping heard ‘round the world, the scuttlebutt across the net has been where the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee might place St. Mary’s. Right now, they are in our LAST 2 IN. This puts St. Mary’s in a tenuous position leading up to their home game against Eastern Washington on Friday night. Patrick Mills will need to perform, as the Committee will be following that game with a keen eye. Or so, we hope.

Sticking with the mid-majors, Butler fell a seed line after losing a tight home decision to Cleveland State, who effectively stole a bid. Under the current scenario, Auburn is on the outside looking in as a result of the thievery. If Florida defeats Arkansas and Auburn defeats Florida, then Auburn has an even stronger argument as to why they should be included.

As you will notice, there was a difference in the placement of Big Ten bubble teams since the last bracket. To better understand the problem, I determined the records of the Big Ten teams under heavy consideration (sorry, Northwestern, you’re not there yet) against the top 9 teams in the conference. I used the records and key wins to differentiate the teams and determine seeding. As a result, Ohio State seems to be on shaky ground, as their wins continue to lose value.

Penn State: 7-7 (@ Michigan State; Illinois (2); v. Purdue)
Michigan:7-8 (v. Duke; UCLA –N; v. Purdue)
Wisconsin: 7-7 (v. Illinois)
Minnesota: 6-9 (Louisville – N; v. Illinois)
Ohio State: 6-8 (v. Butler; win v. Purdue w/o Hummel)

Here are some impact games taking place tomorrow:
DePaul v. Providence: If Providence loses, they are eliminated from consideration. A win by the Friars has the nutritional equivalent of lettuce.

Iowa State v. Oklahoma State: If Oklahoma State loses, it opens the door for a number of teams to sneak in. The Cowboys lack quality wins away from Stillwater and a good showing is key to an at-large bid.

Notre Dame v. West Virginia: By my count, West Virginia is in, but a loss here could damage their seeding. Notre Dame needs to win this if they have any hope of making the tournament. If they can demonstrate that Harangody is not the entire team against a legitimate opponent, then that helps their cause that much more.

Texas Tech v. Texas A&M: Tech played A&M to two single-digit contests in the regular season and they proved against Kansas that they could catch fire. After their win against Missouri, A&M will be in if they avoid defeat here.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Minnesota

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Western Kentucky

If you have questions, comments, uninhibited hatred, or think I really need some sleep, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, GONZAGA (WCC)
6: Marquette, California, Texas, Arizona State
7: Butler, Tennessee (SEC), Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Penn State, Michigan
10: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), Oklahoma State, UNLV (MWC), Wisconsin
11: Creighton, Arizona, St. Mary’s, WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt)
12: Minnesota, Ohio State, Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA)
13: CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON), NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), Portland State (Big Sky)
15: Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Cleveland State, Portland State, Chattanooga
OUT: Auburn, Weber State, Charleston

Last Four In: Creighton, Minnesota, St. Mary’s, Ohio State
Last Four Out: Auburn, Kansas State, New Mexico, Providence
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
Horizon: 2/10
MVC: 2/10
SEC: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

Hello, March!

A couple of months ago, I made a promise to do regular (daily) posts dedicated to college basketball. Unfortunately, the requirements for the day job over the last two months necessitated that I work beyond my reach and made my promise as earnest as Kenny Hasbrouck's 2-for-20 performance from the field on Friday night. I thank Clement for being the real thought leader behind this tiny operation over the last few months to keep us afloat.

That said, this project ended on Thursday night, I used Friday to recuperate and now I am back. Not to mention, it's March and I would have reached deep into the reserves regardless. Spanning the globe, I found this piece by Brian at The Bracket Project which uses a scoring rubric that seems vaguely familiar. This just in, I am average. Exactly zero standard deviations from the mean. Eat your heart out, Curtis from the Orlando Sentinel (-0.1 average variance)! Seriously, I am looking to enter the upper echelon of bracketologists; however, I stand by the fact that the teams I did not include in the field (Oregon and South Alabama) had no right being in the NCAA Tournament.

The real reason I am writing to you today is talk about the marriage between college basketball and television. If you ever doubted this, just take a gander at my local CBS TV affiliate's schedule.

12pm Marquette @ Louisville
2pm Missouri @ Kansas
4pm Michigan State @ Illinois

How will Marquette handle the Louisville full-court pressure without their floor general? After a phenomenal February, will Missouri complete the season sweep of Kansas on the 1st of March? Which defense will reign supreme when two of the top 12 (adjusted defensive efficiency) face off in Champaign? All teams are ranked. All are on CBS. I rest my case.

Enjoy the bball!

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - January 12, 2008

Talking points coming soon ...

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), Duke (ACC), North Carolina, UConn
2: Wake Forest, Michigan State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big XII), Texas
3: Louisville, Notre Dame, UCLA (PAC-10), Syracuse
4: Gonzaga (WCC), Tennessee (SEC), Georgetown, Clemson
5: Minnesota, Butler (Horizon), Xavier (A-10), Michigan
6: Memphis (C-USA), Marquette, Purdue, Arizona State
7: Davidson (Southern), Miami-FL, California, West Virginia
8: Ohio State, Villanova, UNLV (Mountain West), Baylor
9: Arkansas, Wisconsin, Illinois, St. Mary’s
10: Kansas, Boston College, Kentucky, Florida
11: BYU, Dayton, Maryland, Arizona
12: Creighton (MVC), Florida State, South Carolina, San Diego State
13: Siena (Metro Atlantic), Utah State (WAC), VCU (CAA), Portland State (Big Sky)
14: Miami-Ohio (MAC), Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), VMI (Big South)
15: Vermont (America East), North Dakota State (Summit), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), American (Patriot), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Hampton (MEAC), Cornell (Ivy), Robert Morris (Northeast), Prairie View A&M (SWAC)

Last Four In: Arizona, Florida State, South Carolina, San Diego State
Last Four Out: USC, Providence, Texas A&M, Washington
Next Four Out: Illinois State, Penn State, George Mason, Cleveland State

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11
ACC: 8/12
Big East: 9/16
SEC: 5/12
Pac-10: 4/10
Big XII: 4/12
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/8
A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - December 27, 2008

It has been a long time since I had an opportunity to do a set of projections (and predictions), so I have taken advantage of this extended holiday period. As expected, North Carolina remains the team to beat and Ty Lawson has taken his game to a whole ‘nother level. The unexpected element is the rise of the Big Ten Conference. Many expected this to be a pedestrian year for the conference; however, Michigan, Illinois, and Minnesota never got the memo. Arguably, Michigan has the two most important OOC wins. On the flipside, the SEC is just bad. We knew that the SEC West would suffer, but the entire conference (except South Carolina). Eventually, we expect a 4^th (and possibly a 5^th) bid from the conference.

Because we use the projection/prediction model, there are some picks that are off putting to say the least.

One is Louisville as the last #2 seed. The Cardinals have struggled out of the gate with losses to Western Kentucky and Minnesota, but Pitino’s Louisville teams generally do what they do now and then gel in late January to early March. I just think they’re getting to used to life without David Padgett.

The other is USC among the last four. The Trojans have done exactly squadoosh to justify an at-large bid. Nevertheless, USC storms and norms until mid-January under Tim Floyd. Because of attrition related to recruiting practices (i.e. possessing an utter willingness to take on one-year players), it takes a while for his new players to learn how to defend well. That said, do not be surprised if they come out as the #3 team out of the PAC 10.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings

1: North Carolina, UConn (Big East), Pittsburgh, Oklahoma (Big XII)

2: Duke (ACC), Texas, UCLA (PAC-10), Louisville

3: Gonzaga (WCC), Notre Dame, Purdue (Big Ten), Tennessee (SEC)

4: Syracuse, Michigan State, Clemson, Ohio State

5: Georgetown, Arizona State, Wake Forest, Michigan

6: Villanova, Davidson, Xavier (A-10), Memphis (C-USA)

7: Miami-FL, Baylor, Butler, Minnesota

8: St. Mary’s, UNLV (Mountain West), Kentucky, Arizona

9: Creighton (MVC), Wisconsin, Florida, BYU

10: Marquette, Kansas, Maryland, Illinois State

11: West Virginia, Texas A&M, Dayton, Illinois

12: Florida State, USC, Cleveland State (Horizon), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

13: VCU (CAA), Nevada (WAC), Portland State (Big Sky), Siena (Metro Atlantic),

14: Oakland (Summit), Akron (MAC), Vermont (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)

15: American (Patriot), Cornell (Ivy), Liberty (Big South), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)

16: Pacific (Big West), Hampton (MEAC), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Jackson State (SWAC)

Last Four In: Texas A&M, Illinois, USC, Florida State

Last Four Out: Missouri, California, UAB, Stanford

Next Four Out: Washington, LSU, Cincinnati, Temple

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 7/11

ACC: 7/12

Big East: 9/16

Big XII: 5/12

Pac-10: 4/10

SEC: 3/12

West Coast: 2/8

Mountain West: 2/9

Horizon: 2/10

Missouri Valley: 2/10

A-10: 2/14

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- November 14, 2008

The college basketball season has begun (barely), but something’s missing … the PHSports preseason NCAA tournament bracket projections.

Make no mistake about it. The North Carolina Tar Heels are the team to beat this season. Despite injuries early on, Tyler Hansbrough’s injury is not of the long-term variety. Who’s the best among the rest? Try UCLA, Texas, Duke, Tennessee and The Big East Conference.

Yes, I went there. In past seasons, the Big East has struggled to get the elusive 9th bid from its conference. Not only will the conference earn all nine bids, they boast three of the nation’s best eight teams. While some love Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, I favor the teams of Calhoun and Pitino.

Among the sleeper conferences, look no further than the Western time zone. The Mountain West (UNLV, San Diego State, BYU, Utah) and the West Coast Conferences (Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, San Diego) are this year’s Atlantic 10. That said, this will not be a big year for the mid-majors as some of the nation’s best mid-major programs lost players (to graduation, of course).

Let the basketball begin! If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina, UConn (Big East), UCLA (PAC-10), Louisville
2: Texas (Big XII), Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC), Tennessee
3: Notre Dame, Purdue (Big Ten), Oklahoma, Gonzaga (WCC)
4: Memphis (C-USA), Marquette, Arizona State, Florida (SEC)
5: Michigan State, Miami-FL, Kansas, USC
6: Georgetown, Ohio State, Villanova, St. Mary’s
7: Clemson, Xavier, Syracuse, Kentucky
8: Creighton (MVC), Baylor, Wake Forest, UNLV (Mountain West)
9: West Virginia, Wisconsin, UAB, Oklahoma State
10: Washington, San Diego State, Davidson (Southern), Vanderbilt
11: Nevada (WAC), LSU, VCU (CAA), Virginia Tech
12: BYU, Washington State, St. Joseph’s, Ole Miss
13: Cleveland State (Horizon), Western Michigan (MAC), Siena (Metro Atlantic), Oakland (Summit)
14: American (Patriot), Vermont (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), Portland State (Big Sky)
15: Cornell (Ivy), South Alabama (Sun Belt), Belmont (Atlantic Sun), Cal State Northridge (Big West)
16: Winthrop (Big South), Delaware State (MEAC), Murray State (Ohio Valley), Mount St. Mary’s (Northeast), Jackson State (SWAC)

Last Four In: BYU, Washington State, St. Joseph’s, Ole Miss
Last Four Out: Missouri, San Diego, Arizona, Temple
Next Four Out: Minnesota, Providence, Alabama, Utah

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)

Big East: 9/16
ACC: 6/12
SEC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big XII: 5/12
Big Ten: 4/11
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/8
C-USA: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

Six Thoughts on the Field of 65: Pay & Clement Vent

Here were our final bracket projections
We were proud of our work (63 out of 65), but less than enthused with several unfair major-biased outcomes and several odd-seedings.

Chris Wright might be the most talented player NOT in the field,
but his injuries were not a reason Dayton should have been allowed in the field.
Credit: ViewImages

1) Mid-Majors Get the Rawest of Deals

34 at-large bids. 28 go to “Majors” and 6 go to “Mid-Majors”. How sweet! Sadly, ESPN’s Jay Bilas (picking the four #1 seeds, pansy) openly stated during ESPN's watered-down Bracketology 101 that mid-majors get a break on their schedules (please, who will schedule 95% of them?) while CBS’s brilliant duo of Nantz/Packer (hah!) believe the mid-majors are going to continue to lose steam as conferences continue to expand. I'm asking this to all parties involved: explain to me how Illinois State isn’t getting half the pub of half-runs like Dayton, UMASS, Virginia Tech, and even UAB (since when was Conference USA reputable in the least bit?) as being snubbed? Point is: ESPN needs to cancel Bracketbusters. They don’t matter. It just excites those of us who support the little guys and boosts established mid-majors in that particular season (i.e. Kent State, Gonzaga, Drake, and Butler.) VCU’s win at Akron (or winning the CAA by 3-games) was useless and the MVC (8-2 in Bracketbusters) couldn’t land a second team in the field while the Sun Belt got 2 and the WCC 3 (Illinois State again, anyone?)

2) Sheet of Integrity: Who Cares!

I’m not going to hide my emotions. I’m far from excited about this bracket. It’s going to be #1-team heavy in most Final Four predictions, experts and novices (not me though!). UNC, Kansas, and UCLA will be in at least 75% of most bracketeer’s Final Fours. Is Memphis, as a #1 seed, truly a wild-card? At least Bob Knight picked Pittsburgh to win the while thing. With so few mid-majors present (go Mason!), Oregon a 9-seed, several rather ludicrous seedings (Kansas State all the way down to #11, Kent State a 9-seed, and USC only a 6-spot?) and plenty of undeserving teams (nearly every seed 10 through 12)…how can I be excited??? Nice try tournament committee matching up UNC/Indiana potentially and offering up Beasley/Mayo in the opening round. Pay and I instantly realized that both were simply TV-based matchups. Those typically don’t work out, either. I have to fairly admit though, a small portion of my skepticism is rooted in the fact that my childhood team is the Orange and I am an alum of VCU.

3) Last Two Out?

I’m ecstatic Ohio State (2-10 vs. the RPI Top 50) and Virginia Tech (1-7 against the RPI Top 50) didn’t ride overrated final weeks to get in. As inspiring as Seth Greenberg (who I love) tried to be following Tech’s 2-point last-second loss to the Heels, Greenberg yelled and screamed because his team didn’t have the credentials to lay out for anyone. You don't get into the tournament for "almost-beating" anyone either. No matter how close it seems or where the game is played. As for the Buckeyes, two home wins against Big Ten squads just ain’t enough. My frustration with Oregon’s #9 seed is only quenched minimally with the exclusion of the Buckeyes and Hokies.

4) Switching Around a Few Things…

Interesting, to say the least, to see Georgetown acquiesced so much (first for not being able to play in DC and for Texas not being able to be grouped in the same region as Texas). In fact, they might’ve moved down two full rankings and allowed Kansas a much easier pass to the Final Four (remember who coaches them though) and an easier path for them to the Elite Eight against Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk. Tennessee was arguably the 5^th or 6^th overall seed and is now in the same bracket as overall #1 UNC. Is this fair? Probably not.

5) An Arizona Argument Not Involving John McCain

Arizona proved how mighty a fantastic (#2 overall) SOS is. While the RPI had to matter behind closed doors, it’s clear conferences and conference marks didn’t (according to the tourney chairman, at least). That’s the only reason I can conceive ASU (who swept Arizona and owns a win versus Stanford which Zona doesn’t) was the first Pac-10 team out and Arizona was the last Pac-10 team in (again, don’t get me STARTED on Oregon). Arizona State had a putrid out-of-conference schedule. Then again, it is their fault LSU and Illinois stunk up the joint? ASU also won against #3-seed Xavier by 22 points! I knew Arizona would be in, but I don’t like it at the expense of ASU, no matter how many RPI Top 100 opponents they had. (I also HATE Arizona. Yeah, I said it.)

6) Predictions and Projections

For the last eight years, I have taken my pre-season champion pick immediately after I first see the field of 64/65. At least when it’s humanely possible. At the beginning of the season, here was my Final Four: North Carolina, UCLA, Kansas, and Michigan State (whoops). I won’t reveal who I picked as my pre-season champs; however, it’s fair to say they will be a popular pick to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Oh yeah, MJ didn’t play there. There’s one clue.

Note: The four-letter network has angered me a lot over the past few weeks. However, their special 'Black Magic' (Documentary about athletes who attended black colleges and universities, specifically during the Civil Rights Movement) is powerful and moving. It should be mandatory viewing in ALL classrooms (and will be in my own).

…Pay will be up shortly to rant and rave much more effectively…

Clement has cited many of the bones that I was to pick, so to avoid being redundant, I will mention some other things on my mind following the Tournament Selection Show.

1) Bracket Results

As Clement stated, we successfully picked 63 of 65 teams in correct fashion. Here are the unofficial bracket metrics:

Correct Teams: 63/65

Exact Seeds: 32/65

Within One Seed: 52/65

In sum, I am not too happy with the results given the amazing work that both Clement and I put in. Did I mention humility was among my strongest attributes? While I am not surprised by the inclusion of either South Alabama or Oregon (they were our last two out), their seedings remain curious. This leads us to ...

2) What On Earth Were You Thinking?

As a fan, I love that George Mason (my alma mater) is in a pod with Notre Dame (i.e. the team that every mid-major wants to play) and Washington State. As someone who projects brackets, I was shocked. Up until Arkansas choked, WASU was our top #7 seed and was immediately ousted from the conversation for a #4 seed. Why? Try 0-5 against the conference brass. If you don't buy that one because UCLA and Stanford are really superb, why don't you consider their 4-7 mark against the RPI Top 50? Were the road wins versus Boise State, Baylor and Gonzaga in non-conference play more important than a 10-8 finish?

3) Do Vanderbilt's Wins at Memorial Gymnasium Count As Neutral Court Victories?

That's the only way they deserve a #4 seed. Yes, I understand that they defeated mighty Tennessee. So did the team that forgot how to play basketball, Arkansas - not to mention, they did it on an actual neutral court. Oh wait. They also defeated the Commodores twice. I laud Kevin Stallings for his amazing coaching job the last two seasons and his ability to craft a schedule that largely avoids facing off against the lower-third of Division I college basketball. With that said, the bulk of Vandy's results were within the friendly confines of Memorial Gymnasium (a very underrated home court advantage). They sustained 3 losses of 16 points or more away from home, two of which were against non-tournament teams. I apologize if I sound hostile. I just provide the facts, rather than some distorted, politically correct hogwash.

4) While I Love Blake Griffin, I Am Not In Love With Oklahoma's #6 Seed

Since January 27, you have had floor seats to my somewhat unhealthy man crush on Blake Griffin. Though the Sooners sustained injury after injury (by the way, their medical team deserves an award) this season, they had 11 losses, went 6-8 against the RPI Top 50 and were a meager 8-8 on road and neutral settings. Oklahoma had zero signature victories and had its best victory (by the seedings) in Charleston against West Virginia. Meanwhile, Phil Martelli has to be licking his chops with this favorable matchup and a veteran team led by Pat Calathes. If the team that beat Xavier twice comes out, then this may be decided by the third media timeout.

5) Let's Not Fake The Funk

Over the course of a few months in which you become familiar with team resumes, it's comical to think that conference affiliation is not brought up. It's irrelevant. Why? Because if you actually know the resumes of teams, then you know their credentials. If you still have a few brain cells remaining, you can extrapolate the conference in which the team plays. Since everyone knows exactly who is being discussed, let's talk about conference affiliation. Let's bring up the records of double-digit seeds from major conferences in years past. Let's just be honest and lay it all out there. Then, we can all have our ice cream celebrating your informed decisions.

6) Penalize Conferences That Play Their Tournaments on Home Courts Of Non #1 seeds

I'm talking to you, Mountain West and West Coast Conferences. UNLV earned a #8 seed with two home wins against BYU (only wins against the RPI Top 50), the second leading to an automatic bid. Mind you, the Runnin' Rebels required late-game heroics against basketball giants Texas Christian and benefited immensely from the home crowd against a determined yet considerably weak Utah squad. In the West Coast Conference, we all know about San Diego. If you watched the tournament, you could not have scripted better choke jobs from St. Mary's (15-2 run to end regulation forcing overtime) and Gonzaga (they fell two seed lines for not showing up entirely). As a result, the tournament selection committee made an unprecedented decision to include three teams from the 14th-rated conference in what was a perfect storm scenario - both Gonzaga and St. Mary's are legit. In addition to punishing conferences that play tournaments on the home court of a team that did not win the regular season, let us punish teams that lose their conference tournament on their home floor (South Alabama), especially when it's not to the team that wins the automatic bid.