Soccer Scenarios and Stuff

After a rather thrilling USA/Slovenia matchup - especially during the last day of school - it became quite clear I needed my World Cup scenarios (for Group C) explained.

Meet Koman Coulibaly. Jim Joyce thinks he blew that call...badly.
Credit: AP

Have no fear, for CNNSI.com's Georgina Turner has us covered:

Group C is wide open after Friday's play, with three points separating all four teams. When the last two games kick off simultaneously at 10 a.m. ET next Wednesday, almost anything could happen. Here's how the various scenarios pan out for the U.S.:

If the U.S. defeats Algeria -- It will go through regardless of the other result, though its final ranking will be affected by that result. If Slovenia beats England, the U.S. will qualify second. If England beats Slovenia, it will be level on points with the U.S. and goal difference will come into play -- currently, that goes in favor of the U.S.

If the U.S. loses to Algeria -- It cannot progress to the next round, no matter the other result.

If the U.S. ties with Algeria and England loses to Slovenia -- Bob Bradley's team will qualify second behind the Slovenians.

If the U.S. ties and England wins -- England and Slovenia will qualify.

If the U.S. ties and England and Slovenia also draw -- Slovenia will top the group. England and the U.S. will be split by goal difference, but the U.S. currently has a two-goal advantage in goals scored in that category.

Be warned: If Wednesday's results mirror Friday's -- with England drawing 2-2 with Slovenia and the U.S. tying 0-0 with Algeria -- Slovenia will qualify first, and FIFA will draw lots for second place.

As for Saturday and Sunday's slates, here are 5 questions I am pondering...

1) Will the "real" Cameroon (vs. Denmark) either STAND UP or just fade away with a disappointing showing this World Cup?
2) After Germany's hiccup (or more) against Serbia earlier today, will Ghana prove to be the top dog in Group D (vs. Australia)?
3) Can Ivory Coast, with Drogba perhaps starting in Game #2, keep up with Brazil up and down the field?
4) Is Italy the next "giant" due for major disappointment in their second game?
5) How good is Paraguay?

We'll find out soon enough, right? RIGHT!?

What Happened to UAB?

In our January 26 edition of the PHSports NCAA Tournament projections, we left UAB out of the field. One reader took exception, using favorable statistics and insults to support his argument, such as beating "ranked" teams Butler (still ranked because they play in a weak conference) and Cincinnati (has not sniffed the rankings in 2010). To his credit, UAB was 18-2 (6-0) at the time and they had come off a big home win against Tulsa.

In my arguments, I shared that UAB had a low margin for error, because they had eked out wins against weaker competition, had a tendency to waste offensive possessions, and that they would lose to UTEP, to Memphis (twice), and to one another team before succumbing to defeat in the C-USA Tournament. After the discussion had exhausted itself, we agreed to let the basketball play out.

UAB has lost 3 of 4
Credit: blog.al.com

And believe me, it has. After suffering a heartbreaker at home in double OT to UTEP, the Blazers lost at Memphis. Following a comeback win at basketball giants Rice, UAB faltered at home to Marshall, which dropped the Blazers to a record that we expected.

In short, PHSports did its research, spotted the trend before other sites and national columnists, and UAB fan is somewhere hiding with his tail between his legs.

Now, it's time to write about tournament teams ...

Friday FourCast: Bubble Talk Continues...

The FourCast, barely two days old in its college basketball format, is already undergoing several radical changes.

First off, we’re going to target the eight best matchups of the day (because 4 +4 is 8!). Fortunately for your eyes, we’re only giving each game ONE sentence.

We’re also projecting four thoughts from the past day (in this case, Thursday). Finally, I’m asking our “Bracket expert” Paymon (who I assure you won’t change his picks at 5:52pm Sunday evening) four questions that are clawing me deep into my bone marrow.

Yes, I said bone marrow.

Some of us "experts" need to take quantum physics to explain how VCU and the "Dagger" will return to the tourney in 2008.
Credit: NY Times.com

FourCast Four Thoughts:

1) West Virginia not only pushed itself into “lock” status, but might start climbing up the big board with its impressive victory over (my pick to cut down the nets in MSG) the UCONN Huskies. Joe Alexander poured in 34 and the Mountaineers might have exposed UCONN’s questionable perimeter defense.

2) Houston said bye-bye to a desperately-needed Conference USA tourney run with a rather embarrassing loss to UTEP. Does this affect a certain Richmond-based team who needs Houston to look as good (but not too good)?

3) Apparently, UCLA doesn’t need all the calls. Often, teams like this can be discounted or even swept under the radar. What appears clear is that UCLA should earn the West’s #1 seed and even if they do not, they may be just as dangerous as they were last as the #2 seed out of their preferred region.

4) Teams who are livin’ on a bubble prayer (hello VCU!) better hope that teams like New Mexico, UNLV and Texas A&M are bit by the upset bug. Of course, that’s highly unlikely. HIGHLY.

FourCast Four Questions:
1) How damaging was Baylor’s 2-overtime loss to (12-19) Colorado?

It’s damaging enough to place them firmly onto the bubble, rather than near “lock” status. I think their early season neutral court wins will get them over the hump. I’ll take 9 wins in a top 3 conference and a neutral court victory over ‘Gody over most of the bubble boys any day.

2) Is Villanova truly “in” with their victory over Syracuse? Or was their drubbing from Georgetown (combined with a 3-6 record against the RPI Top 50 and several BAD losses – DePaul & Rutgers notably) enough to put them as one of the last four teams out?

Anyone familiar with Villanova knows exactly how aggravating it is to follow the team. Because of the criteria set before you, Villanova will be among the teams that Clement and I will be discussing at length on Sunday afternoon.

3) Arizona State’s standing has been far more pessimistic in brackets outside of yours. How damaging was their 4-point loss to OJ Mayo and the Trojans?

According to the Bracket Matrix, 41 of 53 bracket projectionists have Arizona State in the field of 65, but the average seed is 11. On their loss, I didn’t see it as damaging at all, except for it meaning that Arizona State has a losing conference record and an ugly RPI. They played tough defense against a stout USC team and fell short of forcing overtime, no thanks to PAC-10 officials.

4) Why is everyone so in love as of late with New Mexico?

I’ve been absent from this love party for New Mexico. There’s this bizarre belief that the Mountain West will be a two-bid conference, even if BYU wins the conference tournament. The 24 wins are impressive, but they are due in large part to fattening up on weak teams and at home. Of their 31 games, the Lobos played 18 on their home court. Their best win outside of Albuquerque was at San Diego State.

8 Games to Watch on Friday (or as WJFK’s Don & Mike say…Fri-dee!):

Michigan vs. Wisconsin
-Alright UM fans, this is your shot to make a 9-21 season end on as high a note as possible for a 9-21 team.

Texas vs. Oklahoma State
-A #1 seed for Texas is still far from out of the question.

Miami (FL) vs. Virginia Tech
-Hokie fans were crying to me how much they wanted to avoid the ‘Canes. Tough break.

Xavier vs. St. Joseph’s
-The Red Hawks need this win if they want to keep their legit tourney hopes alive.

Georgetown vs. West Virginia

A) Who underrated Georgetown a month ago (ME!)

B) Who underrated WVU’s 11-win conference performance (Pay!)

Temple vs. UMass Charlotte
-With UMASS coughing up an 18-point lead, will Pay’s brilliance of sticking with Temple be rewarded with an A-10 Championship Game birth?

USC vs. UCLA
-This should clinch a #1 seed, in my opinion, for UCLA…if they win, of course.

Washington State vs. Stanford
-Forget this matchup, what about the Thursday night losers and their bubble fates (Arizona does seem safer than Oregon, right?)?

Hope you enjoyed the new format! It’s gonna be around for another 12 hours or so…