BracketBusted

So much for the CAA winning 4 of 5 TV matchups this weekend.

Old Dominion is kicking themselves for being outrebounded 29-22 and for giving up 10 three-pointers in a loss to Northern Iowa.

William & Mary is playing like the 11th-best team that Michael Litos predicted them to be. Great timing.

Now, it seems that the only way in which the CAA will earn two bids is if ODU wins out and loses in the final of the CAA Tournament. ODU's at-large candidacy also took a hit this week, as Georgetown - who they defeated at McDonough - has suffered consecutive defeats and is down to 8-6 in conference. Their next biggest OOC win was versus Charlotte, who has also slipped.

What Happened to UAB?

In our January 26 edition of the PHSports NCAA Tournament projections, we left UAB out of the field. One reader took exception, using favorable statistics and insults to support his argument, such as beating "ranked" teams Butler (still ranked because they play in a weak conference) and Cincinnati (has not sniffed the rankings in 2010). To his credit, UAB was 18-2 (6-0) at the time and they had come off a big home win against Tulsa.

In my arguments, I shared that UAB had a low margin for error, because they had eked out wins against weaker competition, had a tendency to waste offensive possessions, and that they would lose to UTEP, to Memphis (twice), and to one another team before succumbing to defeat in the C-USA Tournament. After the discussion had exhausted itself, we agreed to let the basketball play out.

UAB has lost 3 of 4
Credit: blog.al.com

And believe me, it has. After suffering a heartbreaker at home in double OT to UTEP, the Blazers lost at Memphis. Following a comeback win at basketball giants Rice, UAB faltered at home to Marshall, which dropped the Blazers to a record that we expected.

In short, PHSports did its research, spotted the trend before other sites and national columnists, and UAB fan is somewhere hiding with his tail between his legs.

Now, it's time to write about tournament teams ...

Bubble Teams: Stock Up, Stock Down

So far this week, we have seen a number of surprises, especially among our bubble teams. PHSports conducts a pulse check to determine where these teams are now.

Virginia Tech - The Hokies have defeated exactly 1 team in our field of 65. If they hold serve at home (win against UVa, Wake, Maryland, NC State), they are in with no questions asked. If they are 8-3 in ACC play after Tuesday, not only will they be in our field, they will be a 8 seed or better.

Mississippi State - Right when they needed a win, they came out strong against their rival (as we predicted). This team remains barely in the tournament.

Illinois - And off of the bubble they go. Everyone - and I mean everyone - outside of Champaign thought the Fighting Illini would be 7-5 in the Big Ten after two fatal blows to the ego against two of the conference's finest teams. Now, this team is clicking on all cylinders, and suddenly, someone other than Bo Ryan is in the discussion for Big Ten Coach of the Year. 11-7 in conference is very, very possible, which would make them a shoe-in for the tournament. As a result, the resumes of Missouri and Gonzaga improved.

North Carolina - a great performance for 33 minutes was not enough. If the Heels put in the same effort for 33 minutes at the defensive end in their last 7 games, they can win 6. They will not though. Off to the NIT ... or CBI.

The A-10 - We knew Charlotte was in for a difficult stretch, but a whopping 28-point loss to Dayton was not what we envisioned. The Flyers have some good OOC wins (v. Georgia Tech on a neutral court, @ George Mason, v. Old Dominion), and boast one of the most talented rosters in the conference. Rhode Island has the RPI numbers, but surprised us with a loss against the Richmond Spiders. U of R, who another PHSports contributor may call the 2nd best team in Richmond, has a strong resume thanks to some great scheduling. They will be one of the interesting case studies to examine come the weekend of March 14.

Louisville and Notre Dame - The Cardinals mailed it in against St. John's on Thursday night. As for Notre Dame, they fought hard against The Hall, but they lost in true Fighting Irish fashion surrendering 90+ points. To boot, 'Gody is injured.

UConn - They fought hard and fell short. Because ESPN did the game, some of the talking heads are raising a stink about poor officiating. Don't get me wrong, this team is very talented, and I like what George Blaney has done by widening his bench. If UConn goes 9-9, they are in. If they 8-10 with another signature win, they will make it in over a more deserving mid-major.

Minnesota - Shame on you, Golden Gophers. Way to lose on national television to a struggling Michigan team! They are in better shape than Northwestern, but not by a whole lot.

UTEP - A completely different team since Derrick Caracter entered the fray. If you get to watch this team, they are not the most crisp on offense, but they take no prisoners on defense. A trip to Tulsa may be among their toughest tests to date.

St. Mary's - A 19-point loss is close to exactly what we expected at Gonzaga. That's why they were on the outside looking in. For them to get in, they need to win a game that they are not supposed to win. Ultimately, they will need to win the WCC Tournament.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- February 8, 2010

In the last two weeks, the three best teams -- Kansas, Kentucky, and Syracuse -- have begun separating themselves from the pack. The most plausible situation is that if Duke wins the ACC regular season and conference tournament, then they will be the final #1 seed. Not far behind are Texas and Michigan State. Both have undergone a rough stretch, but both have not yet waved a white flag and will be in the hunt for a #1 seed all season. Unlike many projections we are seeing, we have left Georgetown off of the top two seed lines because they lack depth and are susceptible to performances like the one against South Florida.

The toughest problem in this bracket was selecting the final three protected seeds (i.e., teams 14-16). BYU, Maryland, and Wake Forest all lack the portfolio of a team that qualifies for that seeding. It is logical to think that the best team in the Mountain West and second-best team in the ACC are good enough for the #4 seed.

In the A-10, we sense that 4 teams in is a plausible option, but 5 (if we would have included Charlotte or Dayton) is too many. Though Charlotte has impressed of late, we are predicting that they will lose at least 3 games before the A-10 tournament. Further, it's worth noting that Louisville was missing 3 guards in their game against Charlotte earlier this year.

In C-USA, UTEP replaces Memphis as the at-large bid. In a two-week span, UTEP won in double OT at UAB and held serve at home against Houston and Tulsa. The Miners play great team defense and have played some of their best games away from home.

In the Pac-10, it has become increasingly clear that no one can predict this conference. That said, we are erring on the side of an at-large bid being stolen during their conference tournament.

Meanwhile, you will see that UConn is in our tournament field. We expect them to go 9-9 in Big East play, which is somewhat of a stretch. In the end, their SOS, name recognition and talent will get them in similar to the way that Arizona got in last year.

Among our last four in, Minnesota and UTEP were relatively simple choices. We think Mississippi State will right the ship and win 10 games in conference which should be enough. The final spot came down to Ole Miss, Virginia Tech, St. Mary's, and UAB. Given their relatively weak ACC schedule and their poor OOC SOS, the Hokies need to go 10-6 in conference, or go 9-7 with a signature win. We don't think they will do either. St. Mary's has some decent wins, but to be in the tournament, you have to beat tournament teams. As for UAB, though we called it, their recent form and results has us concerned. Ole Miss showed a lot of character in their comeback win against Alabama, and that was enough (along with a neutral court win against Kansas St.) to hang on by a thread.

Last Four In: Minnesota, UTEP, Mississippi St., Ole Miss
Last Four Out: Virginia Tech, St. Mary’s, UAB, South Florida
Next Four Out: Charlotte, Dayton, Cincinnati, North Carolina

Conference Breakdown (multiple bid conferences only)
Big East (8) -- Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, UConn
Big XII (6) -- Kansas, Texas, Kansas St., Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri
ACC (6) -- Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Florida St.
SEC (6) -- Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi St., Ole Miss
Big Ten (6) -- Michigan St., Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio St., Illinois, Minnesota
A10 (4) -- Temple, Rhode Island, Xavier, Richmond
Mountain West (3) -- BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
C-USA (2) -- UTEP, Tulsa
Pac-10 (2) -- California, Washington

Seedings
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: Michigan St., Texas, Wisconsin, Villanova
3: Purdue, Georgetown, West Virginia, Kansas St.
4: Ohio St., BYU, Maryland, Wake Forest
5: Baylor, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh
6: Gonzaga, New Mexico, Temple, Georgia Tech
7: UNLV, Tennessee, Missouri, Cornell
8: Butler, Florida, Northern Iowa, Marquette
9: Clemson, Xavier, Rhode Island, California
10: Florida St., Siena, Louisville, Illinois
11: Richmond, Old Dominion, UConn, Mississippi St.
12: Minnesota, Utah St., UTEP, Ole Miss
13: Washington, Tulsa, Kent St., Murray St.
14: Charleston, Oakland, Sam Houston St., Coastal Carolina
15: UCSB, Middle Tennessee St., Montana, Morgan St.
16: Belmont, Stony Brook, Lehigh, Robert Morris, Jackson St.

Next Update: After games ending on February 21

(Bracket to be posted soon)

Listen to Bob Knight...

A few weeks ago, following Kansas State's victory over then-#1 Texas (now #10, by the way with a HUGE home game against #1 Kansas upcoming this week), former coach and current ESPN commentator Bob Knight had a pearl of wisdom following the upset in Manhattan.

"Why chant overrated (if you're the home team's crowd)? That devalues the effort and performance of your own team. Instead, why not chant, 'Good job. Well done.'"

While Knight's alternative wasn't exactly poetic, it was true.

Enter today's impressive 40-minute effort from the Hoyas - despite an avalanche unleashing itself upon the nation's capital - against the 2nd ranked Wildcats of Villanova.

Despite epic winter conditions outside, the Hoyas were all business on the court today.
Wow, that was cliched and corny. Sounds like the AP wrote it, right?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Georgetown won this game, plain and simple. They outplayed, outhustled, and outexecuted one of the very best teams in the nation.

So don't cheapen it, no matter how easy or fun it is, by calling your opponent "overrated". Instead, embrace the victory, your team's stellar performance (100+ points!), and recognize how talented you are; instead of how your opponent just isn't that good.

I know it's a minor detail, but life is about the details.

On a side note, Villanova fouling down the stretch led to Georgetown making a run - with Monroe driving the length of the floor with 15 seconds to go - trying to score 100. A hard foul came in the paint and Monroe took obvious exception. Villanova followed suit.

A few quick memos:
A) To Villanova: If you continue to foul and try and lengthen the game - for whatever reason you want - with less than 70 seconds to go and a 14-point deficit...don't cry if Georgetown tries to score.
B) To Mr. Monroe: If you're going to play in the Big East and try and put 100 on an opponent...expect some physicality and some bruising.

Big East basketball isn't all the way back. If it were the mid-80s, Monroe would have come up bleeding or limping.

Here's a fun moment from Bob Knight, in closing...

Big East Bubble - You Make The Call

Currently, the Big East has five teams that are in great position to make the tournament. They include Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown and Pittsburgh.

Arguably, there are six more teams that are vying for 2 to 3 additional at-large bids. They include Louisville, Notre Dame, South Florida, Marquette, Cincinnati and UConn.

Using data from, RealTimeRPI.com, kenpom.com and remaining schedules, PHSports made game-by-game predictions, leading to a determination of NCAA Tournament status. Additional Big East tournament scenarios are also considered.

So, who do you think will make the NCAA Tournament among these Big East teams? What seed line do you see them falling?

Louisville (14-8, 5-4)
RPI: 40
Pomeroy Rank: 25
Remaining Schedule: v. Rutgers, @ St. John's, @ Syracuse, v. Notre Dame, @ DePaul, v. Georgetown, @ UConn, @ Marquette, v. Syracuse
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-W-L-W-W-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (10-8)
IN/OUT: IN
Can the Cards lose their first game and still punch their ticket? If Louisville loses 3 in a row heading into the Garden, then a 4th may tip them over the edge. Unless they get blown away, the Cards will be in.


Notre Dame (16-7, 5-5)
RPI: 62
Pomeroy Rank: 77
Remaining Schedule: v. South Florida, @ Seton Hall, v. St. John's, @ Louisville, v. Pittsburgh, @ Georgetown, v. UConn, @ Marquette
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 20-11 (9-9)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-12 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-L-W-L-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (8-10)
IN/OUT: OUT
How far must the Irish go at MSG? A run to the finals, and perhaps winning it because of their poor OOC schedule


South Florida (15-7, 5-5)
RPI: 48
Pomeroy Rank: 66
Remaining Schedule: @ Notre Dame, @ Marquette, v. Cincinnati, v. St. John's, @ Villanova, v. Providence, @ DePaul, v. UConn
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 20-10 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 19-11 (9-9)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: L-L-L-W-L-W-W-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 18-12 (8-10)
IN/OUT: OUT
If the Bulls go 9-9 or better, will they be in with a pre-round win? Honestly, it depends on how the teams that USF beat perform the rest of the way. If they finish 10-10, they are in.


Marquette (14-8, 5-5)
RPI: 65
Pomeroy Rank: 18
Remaining Schedule: @ Providence, v. South Florida, v. Pitt, @ Cincinnati, @ St. John's, @ Seton Hall, v. Louisville, v. Notre Dame
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 19-11 (10-8)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 20-10 (11-7)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-W-L-L-W-L-W-W
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-11 (10-8)
IN/OUT: IN
Can Marquette get in with a loss in their first game at the Garden? Yes.


Cincinnati (14-8, 5-5)
RPI: 50
Pomeroy Rank: 69
Remaining Schedule: v. Syracuse, @ UConn, @ South Florida, v. Marquette, v. DePaul, @ West Virginia, v. Villanova, @ Georgetown
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 16-14 (7-11)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 17-13 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: L-L-W-W-W-L-L-L
PHSports Predicted Record: 17-13 (8-10)
IN/OUT: OUT
How far must Cincinnati go to be among the last four teams in? Semifinals of the Big East Tournament


UConn (13-9, 3-6)
RPI: 52
Pomeroy Rank: 47
Remaining Schedule: v. DePaul, @ Syracuse, v. Cincinnati, @ Villanova, @ Rutgers, v. West Virginia, v. Louisville, @ Notre Dame, @ South Florida
RealTimeRPI.com Predicted Record: 18-13 (8-10)
Pomeroy Predicted Record: 18-13 (8-10)
PHSports Game-by-Game Prediction: W-L-W-L-W-L-W-W-W
PHSports Predicted Record: 19-12 (9-9)
IN/OUT: IN
What if UConn finishes 8-10 in conference? How many wins do they need in the Big East Tournament? 1 or 2, depending on how the rest of the field shapes up

Drew Brees or Peyton Manning: Who Dat???

So...who ya got???
Credit: Boston.com

Quarterbacks are generally the stars of their teams, so there's no real surprise why I'm coming to you from this angle (check the poll to the top right of the page).
However, it's still a fun question to ask. So we will. On our own terms, of course.
So...who do YOU think will come up bigger in Super Bowl XLIV???

No need to explain, unless you got the stones to comment. (Yeah, consider that a double-dog dare.) Just vote.

In the end, it's like choosing between Friday Night Lights' two resident hotties: Lyla Garrity (aka Mrs. Soon-to-be Jeter) or Tyra Collette. Do you really lose either way?

Tyra or Lyla??? In the end, you can't lose.
Credit: NBC.com

Minka or Adrianne???
Man, this decision may be the tougher one than deciding between two MVP-caliber quarterbacks.
Minka or Adrianne???
Hmmm.

Time to dwell on that one a little longer...

Age Old Debate: Who's #1???

There are four teams that are vying for #1 in the polls, various power rankings, and in the minds (not necessarily hearts) of America's college basketball electorate.

One of them is a team I have a particular fondness for. Duh.

Kris Joseph. You want me to depend nightly on Kris Joseph? Seriously? Seriously!?!?
Credit: Blog.Syracuse.com

Entering the season, I had tempered expectations. Maybe not to the tune of the Big East coaches - the Cuse were ranked preseason #6 - although I can't admit I figured them for such an impressive 22-1 start.

If you would have asked me which 5 issues were most pressing to the 2009-2010 edition of the Syracuse Orange, I might've sounded similar to this:
A) How do we replace three of our top contributors from last season (Flynn, Devendorf, & Harris) during a tougher-than-usual non-conference schedule?
B) Is Andy Rautins ready to be the on-court leader of this team?
C) Can Arinze Onuaku stay healthy during Big East play?
D) Who is this team's point guard and further more...who on Earth is the backup?
E) I've heard enough talk. How good is Wesley Johnson going to seriously be?

Fortunately, answers weren't as difficult as I thought they'd be. Even after the humiliation of exhibition losses to Le Moyne.

Rather than compiling answers on all 5, I'd be lying if I didn't admit the first question has lingered throughout the season first and foremost, until recently that is. The concept of addition by subtraction - especially with Devendorf and Harris - never rang so true for me.

A lot of eligibility was left on the table. Funny thing is, maybe their leaving (Devendorf, Flynn, & Harris) was the best thing for everyone involved. Even the Orange.
Credit: Syracuse.com

Devendorf and Harris were extremely gifted players, although the game didn't flow so smoothly through either of them. Devendorf was far too erratic off and on the court (to say the very least); meanwhile, Harris relied on physical talent, but lacked the mental toughness to ever truly be a standout. Both of them seemed to hinder the team as much as they helped it at times. Flynn was as talented a PG as this PG-rich school had ever seen. Problem was, he was a shoot-first point guard who didn't play a lick on defense. As soon as he was off, the team was in a funk they couldn't recover. Although I'll never forget their heart during Six in the City. Never.

Top Pro: The 2-3 zone looks as effective as it did in 2003.
Johnny Flynn, unlike Paul Harris or Eric Devendorf, certainly wasn't addition by subtraction on the offensive end. On defense though, Flynn isn't missed at all. Triche is strong and sturdy and Andy Rautins had better be a 1st-team Big East defender. The top of the zone is steady as a rock right now. Meanwhile, the post is clogged regularly by the extremely long and athletic Johnson, alongside big-men Onuaku and Jackson. Enter Kris Joseph's versatility and Jardine's quick hands and quicker feet and the Orange may be the best defensive team in the Big East. A far, far cry from a season ago.

Top Con: Depth. 7 deep and an injury away from trouble.
Pay already hinted at it earlier and he couldn't have been more right. Fortunately for Boeheim and Orange fans, their top 7 is pretty stacked. Especially if the duo of Jardine/Triche continues to play well at the point and Kris Joseph remains one of the nation's top reserves. I can't believe I just said that. If if I had to be picky, I wouldn't mind 5-6 minutes a night for Mookie Jones. Then again...

In the end, there's still far too much to learn in the next six-or-so weeks before tournament time officially begins. Nevertheless, I hope I can enjoy a few more of these from #4 along the way...

If You Were Wondering Why The ACC Ranks Highly, Look No Further Than Defense

Sometimes, the ACC often gets a bad rep for being a soft conference. When coaches and fans alike think soft, they think that a team cannot play defense. Au contraire, mon frere.

Entering Monday's play, the ACC had a whopping 7 of the 20 best defensive teams (by adjusted defensive efficiency).

Florida State 1st
Clemson 3rd
Georgia Tech 6th
Virginia Tech 11th
Wake Forest 16th
Duke 17th (despite committing zero stops against Georgetown on Saturday)
Maryland 20th

In comparison with other conferences using the same standard, the Big XII (Kansas, Texas, Missouri - all in the top 9) and the Big Ten (Wisconsin, Purdue, Minnesota) have 3 teams each.

BracketBuster Breakdown

Earlier this evening, the ESPNU BracketBusters were announced. Call me biased, but 5 of the 11 televised matchups include teams from the Colonial Athletic Association.

Top Matchup:
Siena @ Butler

Who has the most to gain?
Siena followed closely by Old Dominion

What will the CAA need to do in televised matchups to stake a claim at a 2nd bid?
Win 4 of 5 including Old Dominion @ Northern Iowa

What will the MVC need to do in televised matchups to get a 2nd bid?
Winning 2 of 3 televised matchups and 8 of 10 overall

How many BracketBuster participants will make the tournament? How many tournament games will the competition's participants win this year?
If a reprise of 2006 or something familiar does not occur, then this competition will continue to lack luster. We think Butler and Northern Iowa have a great chance to win a game, and we anticipate two more will. Sadly, this will be more like 2009 (3 wins) rather than 2006 (12 wins; 1 Final Four team, 3 Sweet Sixteen teams).

The Bracket Outlier Five-Pack ... and then some

This week, PHSports drew some ire for having a few unwelcomed predictions this week. Some of it was deserved. Some of it was passion-filled conjecture.

In this post, we look at our outliers and see how they stack up nearly a week following our predictions. Just so that we're all on the same page, our operational definition for an outlier will be a seed line difference of two or more in comparison with the average seed on the Bracket Matrix, brought to you by The Bracket Project (BPBM).

PHSports's outliers currently bears a very high number. Therefore, we will profile five and summarize the others.

Tennessee
BPBM Seed: 4
PHSports: 6
How we stack up? PHSports looks fairly prophetic. In our January 11 predictions, we docked Tennessee 3 seed lines for dismissing their best player. Since what was perhaps the biggest upset of the season against Kansas, the Vols have come down to earth and lost two games that they may not have with the services of Tyler Smith. The truth is, this is a team which will struggle away from Thompson-Boling, and they'll have to will their way just to be a 6 seed.
Decision: PHSports

Pittsburgh
BPBM Seed: 4
PHSports: 6
How we stack up? Pitt has a very impressive wins, but their loss to Seton Hall should have let you know that they were wildly overperforming and that the home loss to Georgetown let the air out of their tires. While I was not betting on South Florida, I was not shocked to see the scoreline.
Decision: PHSports

BYU
BPBM Seed: 5
PHSports: 3
How we stack up? If BYU is to earn a protected seed (i.e., 4 or better), then they need to win games like Wednesday's tussle at The Pit against the New Mexico. For those that were too engrossed with The State of the Union speech and the choreographed waste that came on after it to see the game, good job. That said, they were outplayed and lost.
Decision: The Field

Vanderbilt
BPBM Seed: 5
PHSports: 8
How we stack up? The Commodores are better than an eight seed after a series of wins in a row, which came to a screeching halt in Lexington yesterday. They have a tricky next 6 games ahead of them that will ultimately decide their fate.
Decision: The Field (by a whisker)

Ohio State
BPBM Seed: 6
PHSports: 4
How we stack up? With Evan Turner, Ohio State is a 4 seed or better. Without him, they are in the NIT (and generally look lost). And they'd be higher had they not blown a double-digit in Morgantown.
Decision: PHSports

*****
They Are Who We Thought They Were:

UAB (BPBM: 8; PHSports: not seeded): Perhaps, we were harsh and short-sighted to think UAB did not deserve a bid. Or, we thought they would start losing games now that they have the target on their chest. UAB can still make the tournament, but they will not make it as an 8 seed. That's ludicrous.

Butler (BPBM: 6; PHSports: 8): If you look at their resume, you will agree with me. And if you know that they beat Turner-less Ohio State, you'll really agree. If they win their BracketBuster, we'll talk, but the Bulldogs will not go undefeated in conference play.


We Should Re-Think Our Decision:

UConn (BPBM: 7; PHSports: 4): We thought they had turned the corner following a victory against Texas. We were very wrong. Despite having watched this team several times (once live), UConn is an unknown quantity, because you don't know what team is stepping onto the floor.

New Mexico (BPBM: 6; PHSports: 11): To be honest, I'm not sure how good this team is. They have one of the biggest home court advantages in college basketball, and their best win away from The Pit is against the 7th best team in the Big XII. If the Lobos lose 2 or 3 more games in conference play (@ UNLV, @ BYU, plus 1), they may candidates for an 8/9 game.

Mississippi State (BPBM: 10; PHSports: 5): At any moment, this team can get hot. That has not occurred and they will be lower than a 5 seed.

Memphis (BPBM: unseeded; PHSports: 11): The loss to SMU was a wake-up call. Gonzaga's loss to San Francisco was a compounder. Why? If Memphis defeats the Bulldogs (a win we still predict), then their win carries less value.

Let February Play Out:

Missouri (BPBM: 8; PHSports: 5): When you look at their resume right now, it's insane to think they're a 5 seed. The truth is, the Tigers' style, depth, and ability to play defense make them a chic pick to flourish in February.

Xavier (BPBM: 8; PHSports: 10): The Musketeers have a critical 5-game stretch (@UMass, @ Dayton, @ Florida, v. St. Joe's, @ Charlotte) that will determine what type of team this is. This program has a taking-all comers mentality, and that will help with seeding, but how much if they don't win them?

North Carolina (BPBM: 10; PHSports: 7): Yes, the Tar Heels have disappointed. And it's been public. More than anything, this was a good faith pick, because Roy Williams knows how to win games. On Tuesday night, the Heels took it to their in-state rivals at the defensive end -- something that has been foreign to UNC's arsenal all season. I think some of my colleagues forgot about their early season wins versus Ohio State and Michigan State. If they can hold form tonight against Virginia, then they will be on the better side of the 7/10 game.

Blind Resume - Bubble Edition

In what order would you rank these teams?

Team 1
Record: 16-3
Team RPI: 13
v. RPI Top 100: 5-3
v. RPI Top 50: 2-2
v. RPI Top 25: 1-2
v. RPI Sub 200: 3-0
Conf RPI: 6


Team 2
Record: 14-6
Team RPI: 50
v. RPI Top 100: 4-4
v. RPI Top 50: 3-2
v. RPI Top 25: 1-0
v. RPI Sub 200: 5-1
Conf RPI: 12

Team 3
Record: 16-4
Team RPI: 35
v. RPI Top 100: 6-3
v. RPI Top 50: 3-2
v. RPI Top 25: 1-2
v. RPI Sub 200: 7-0
Conf RPI: 7

Wednesday Night Dribbles

A few quick hitters to sum up the night in college basketball:

• Temple and BYU both lost opportunities to strengthen their cases for a protected seed. Kudos to Chris / Craig on calling the Charlotte upset. Though, I still don't think they are or will be a tournament team.

• Anyone who had William & Mary as an at-large team can gently take them out of the discussion. Tonight, they lost to CAA strugglers James Madison. David Schneider has shot 11-for-45 in their last three games - all losses. Ultimately, their demise comes down to their defense (246th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency). Meanwhile, my preseason pick, George Mason, is 9-1 in conference play.

• If no one in the SEC West separates themselves from the pack, Vanderbilt may turn out to be the SEC's 2nd-best team despite a shaky start to the season. They now have wins over Missouri, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Middle Tennessee St., St. Mary's, and Arizona. Not bad for the end of January. After their Rocky Top high, Tennessee is looking like a team without the services of its best player.

• Oklahoma State is starting to normalize with another win at Texas A&M. The margin for error remains small for Travis Ford. Their next four are @ Missouri, v. Texas, @ Texas Tech, v. Oklahoma. So, that's 2 road games, 1 against a top 5 opponent, and another against your in-state rival who hates your guts and has a mental edge from a prior win. We'll know a lot more about this team's heart (Eaton and Harris were huge losses) very soon.

PHSports Field of 65 -- January 26, 2010

After an amazing NFC Championship game (and that thing that pays the bills), little time was left to do our bracket projections. But alas, they are complete. As a reminder, PHSports is of the brand that uses the projection / prediction model. In other words, we're a different cup of tea, and we wouldn't have succumbed to having UVa as the automatic bid from the ACC last week.

In the last two weeks, Kansas re-established the #1 overall seed, while Texas slipped to the 5th overall seed because of some lackluster team defense. Though I do not trust Duke or their 1-3 true road record, they get the #1 seed because the ACC is the nation's top conference and they have some solid non-conference wins. Kentucky and Syracuse complete the #1 seeds, though Texas may be the second #1 seed from the Big XII when this is all said and done.

There are a few teams that I like which other bracketologists or fans may not be too fond of. Some may BYU has no right being a #3 seed. I see a team that crushes the eye test with top 16 ratings nationally in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. The second is Missouri as a #5 seed. On paper, they are a 7 through 9 seed, but this team plays great defense and has depth -- two things that will be on their side come later in February. North Carolina at #7 seed may be seen as a homer pick, and that is fine. They have the talent, plenty of depth in the frontcourt, and they have the coach, though it hasn't quite gelled yet.

Moving down to our last four teams in the tournament, I was fairly confident about UNLV and Minnesota, despite the latter's internal turmoil. Prior to tonight's win against Northwestern (which was predicted), Minnesota lost 3 games in a row by 12 times, 2 of which were to Michigan State, who is undefeated in the Big Ten. If Harvard only loses to Cornell from this point onward (which is what we're predicting), and no bids are stolen from the multiple bid conferences, then they are worthy of an at-large. The same goes for St. Mary's. If they win out, except in games against Gonzaga, and the same principles apply, then they are our 65th team, due to some good out of conference wins. Ultimately, a 3rd team from C-USA or a 2nd team from the Pac-10 may be more realistic.

Last Four In: UNLV, Minnesota, Harvard, St. Mary's
Last Four Out: UAB, Illinois, Virginia Tech, Northwestern
Next Four Out: Arizona St., Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Notre Dame

Conference Breakdown (multiple bid conferences only)
ACC (7) -- Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Florida St., Clemson, Maryland
Big XII (7) -- Kansas, Texas, Kansas St., Missouri, Baylor, Oklahoma St., Texas A&M
Big East (7) -- Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville
SEC (6) -- Kentucky, Mississippi St., Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Florida
Big Ten (5) -- Michigan St., Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio St., Minnesota
A10 (3) -- Temple, Xavier, Dayton
Mountain West (3) -- BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
C-USA (2) -- Tulsa, Memphis
Ivy (2) -- Cornell, Harvard
WCC (2) -- Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Seedings
1: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke
2: Texas, Villanova, Michigan St., Purdue
3: West Virginia, Georgetown, BYU, Wisconsin
4: Kansas St., Temple, UConn, Ohio St.
5: Gonzaga, Mississippi St., Missouri, Georgia Tech
6: Pittsburgh, Baylor, Tennessee, Wake Forest
7: North Carolina, Florida St., Clemson, Northern Iowa
8: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Butler, California
9: Oklahoma St., Siena, Maryland, Cornell
10: Xavier, Texas A&M, Tulsa, Florida
11: Dayton, New Mexico, Memphis, Old Dominion
12: Louisville, UNLV, Minnesota, Murray St.
13: Harvard, St. Mary's, Charleston, Louisiana Tech
14: Oakland, Coastal Carolina, Northern Colorado, Akron
15: Sam Houston St., Arkansas St., Morgan St., Pacific
16: Lafayette, Stony Brook, Jacksonville, Prairie View A&M, Quinnipiac

(Bracket will be posted later in the week)

NEXT UPDATE: After results ending February 7

Four Identities

Interesting take right HERE on the perceptions of whom CBS is rooting for. Any conspiracy theorists will find this all-too-juicy. All this is juicer.

While there may be different names, jersey numbers, or unsung heroes who rise to acclaim, here are the four names the media is immediately prepared to sell Super Bowl week.

Indianapolis: Peyton Manning (QB)
NY Jets: Rex Ryan (Head Coach)
New Orleans: Drew Brees (QB)
Minnesota: Adrian...oh who am I kidding? Brett Favre (QB)

However, here are the four names you might want to be singing instead. For their difference-making abilities are criminally unsung.

Indianapolis Colts

Jeff Saturday, despite the juxtaposition of this picture, is an all-too-forgotten staple in the decade-long run of the Colts. Calling out formations and MIKES, even before King Peyton at times, is just a part of the reason why he anchors this underrated offensive line to continued success. With a guy named Pouha lining up in front of him, Saturday won't make the mistake of breathing easy that Kris Jenkins isn't lining up this weekend. Jets fans (ahem) know that smacking around Peyton will only happen if his veteran center fails to keep things in order on the offensive line.

New York Jets

Alan Faneca was one of the biggest free agent fishes in the 2008 summer class. While 30-year old Pittsburgh Steelers who play the offensive line don't get much acclaim, he's perhaps the best guard the game has seen this decade. He's surrounded by Pro Bowlers and All Pros named Ferguson and Mangold, who owe a lot to Faneca for their continued steady play and recent "offensive line" stardom. Sometimes landing the best free agent, not just the biggest name, is the coup a GM needs to build and reputation and, of course, a winning football team.

New Orleans Saints

You want to beat quarterbacks like Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, and even (gasp) Mark Sanchez...put constant pressure on them. Hit them in the mouth - with or without the football - and make them think twice about standing tall in the pocket. Take their trusted offensive lineman and turn him into a giant question mark that annoys the quarterback like no other that Sunday afternoon. While the name Will Smith immediately conjures up anything but a 13-sack defensive end; nevertheless, this man will need to have a personal meeting (or 3) with Favre on Sunday, in order to let the aggressive Saint secondary make enough plays to allow their own QB enough possessions to put up the points necessary to secure the franchise's first ever Super Bowl appearance. What a run-on sentence that was!

Minnesota Vikings

We'll try to ignore that Favre-guy. (Trust me, it won't be too hard.) I'll stay away from Sidney Rice's emergence, Percy Harvin's migraines, and McKinnie memories triggering the Love Boat theme song. The Vikings, long before the 40-year old Golden Boy (dang!) and A.D. (or should it be A.P.) racked up double-digit touchdowns with relative ease, had a suffocating run defense and two interior lineman NOBODY wanted to see. They're All Pro-talent standing right next to each other. Scary, huh? Good thing the Saints rush to the outside quite a bit. Or is it? Eventually, you gotta test these guys. Unfortunately for you, Kevin and Pat Williams don't like losing the battle in the middle of the interior line.

A few more names are sure to pop up. I didn't even mention Revis Island...until now.

What names do you think will be mentioned more often than most might expect???

Good article on Coach Cal reaching out to John Wooden

Over the last year, I've had an opportunity to read a good amount about John Wooden and have come to admire his coaching styl,e and generally speaking, how he went about his life beyond basketball. Believe it or not, coaches and players reach out to the Wizard of Westwood.

I hope I'm half as sharp as Wooden at 39 as he is at 99.

Which Peyton do you prefer???

With enough analysis to shake something cool at (yeah, writer's block at 11:13 pm), I decided I wanted to tackle a pressing issue. An important issue.

Which kind of person are you?

Commercial A: On Fire



..or...

Commercial B: Chinese, Sucka


Well???

Personally, I gotta go with the FIRE-man (Timberlake in a role I actually enjoyed him in).

As for you...that remains to be told.

UConn Seeks Craig Austrie Clone

After the insanity that Clement put you through Sunday night and yesterday, I bring you back down to earth.

While watching UConn blow a 19-point lead against Georgetown a couple Saturdays ago, two things were evident.

First, this team lacks a leader. That was to be expected given that AJ Price (and Hasheem Thabeet) is in the pros now. The production that these two players give you is irreplaceable.

Second, this team is missing Craig Austrie - an unheralded glue guy who was respected by teammates, and who also annoyed the heck out of the opposition. As for Austrie, he never averaged more than 7.5 points or shot more than 38% from the field, but he was the gritty type who'd change momentum by forcing a turnover or silence crowds with a contested 16-footer with only seconds to go on the shot clock and in the game. Apparently, the intangibles that Austrie brought have proved tougher to replace.

The season is by no means over. Yes, the team has lost 3 games in a row. Yes, Jim Calhoun is taking medical leave, but he's the type who would rather die than not coach. (And yes, I am loving every second of watching UConn fail.) That said, UConn has one of the 5 most talented front lines nationally, and should win four of their next six games. But, if they want to make noise at either MSG or during the NCAA Tournament, they will need a calming influence in the backcourt who has ice in his veins and never loses track of his defensive assignment during critical junctures of the game.

NSFW Content: F*** the Police

Attica!!!

Radio silence for several weeks and suddenly, after a Jet win (typical), I can't shutup suddenly, with 3 posts in less than 20 (not even 24!) hours.

Via the JetsBlog via Deadspin (worst guest hosts for the Dan Patrick Show ever)...

This overenthusiastic Jets fans was hauled out of Qualcomm Stadium yesterday for ...? We're not exactly sure, but when even the Chargers fans are defending his incessant hooting, you know something's fishy.

There is obviously something missing from this video, as we arrive in the middle of about half dozen security/police dudes trying to wrangle this guy to the ground. And he's not exactly being cooperative. But most of the fans around him don't seem happy to see him go. The police are heckled by what seems to be Charger fans and, at the end, one guy in a Chargers jersey appears to trade contact info with Jet Dude's female friend. Either to serve as a character witness or comfort her in her time of need, we may never know.

If you want a REAL laugh, check out the YouTube comments. It gets to a point where it sounds like the scene outside the courtroom in A Time to Kill. 90s flashback!!! 00s flashback may be better, though.

Side note: The best comment I saw from a Charger fan on a message board:
"They arrested the wrong guy! Kaeding was still on the field."

The "old" Nate Kaeding, sans the attitude.
Credit: BleacherReport.com

For a closing shot, isn't it funny how Mike Vamderjagt was Nate Kaeding 5 years ago. Regular season percentages, no matter how high, mean D*CK when you're talking playoffs.

Afterthoughts: MMQB

Straight from the horse's mouth. Of course, that horse is really a jackass. Except today, for some reason.

More "escaped inmates" on Revis Island this weekend.
Credit: Profootball.scout.com

A cornerback can’t play much better than Darrelle Revis did Sunday.
“We’ve got a ton of respect for Revis,” Philip Rivers told me Friday at the Chargers’ training facility, “but we’re not going to avoid him. We’ll take some shots at him.”

Oh really? Rivers went back to pass 45 times (40 passes, two sacks, three runs after being chased from the pocket), and I charted Revis’ coverage pattern on every one of Rivers’ pass-drops. By my count, Rivers threw four passes into the zone where Revis had primary coverage, or to the man Revis was playing man-to-man. One was complete, to LaDainian Tomlinson, for a loss of four yards. One, to Legadu Naanee, was batted down by a diving Revis on a cross route. One, to Vincent Jackson, a deep pass up the left seam, was overthrown, with Revis and Jackson running stride for stride. And the fourth, to Jackson, was up for grabs between the two, with Revis coming down with a juggled ball for an interception in a spectacular play.

Four times Rivers went at Revis in 45 pass calls. One completion, for minus-four. One interception. You cannot play the position better than Revis played it Sunday. I don’t care if you’re Deion Sanders or Night Train Lane. Revis put on a clinic, a masterful display of clinging coverage and bump-and-run when the situation called for it.
“We were playing a lot of man coverage on his side regardless who the receiver was,”Rex Ryan said, “and on the other side we were running some loaded zones and mixes and things like that. He had the tough guy most of the time.”

I told Revis the numbers in the tunnel after the game, just before he boarded the team buses for the airport. “I guess they gave me a lot of respect. It’s my job, to cover guys, and I hope I do it pretty well.”

More than pretty well.