NFL SWOT Analysis: NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Strengths – This is a great offense that came into its own last year once they settled their QB and coaching situation. Matt Ryan and Roddy White formed an elite QB-WR combination. Michael Jenkins finally showed that he can be a decent #2 WR. Michael Turner played like an MVP while his backup, Jerious Norwood became one of the most underrated RB2’s in the league. The young offensive line gelled under Todd McClure’s leadership. Add to all of that, the arrival of Tony Gonzalez, and this offense has all the pieces to be a top 3 offense. Gonzalez should be a huge help to Matt Ryan avoiding a sophomore slump.

Weaknesses – Most, if not all, of the questions reside on the defensive side of the ball. This team boasts some of the weakest CBs in the league. Chris Houston has to step up and fulfill his vast potential. He can’t play like he has Deion’s coverage reputation, without building that reputation first. The defensive line was abused last year and they chose to address that with a sub-300 pound DT. Losing Michael Boley was a blow which was not fully addressed with the Mike Peterson signing.

Opportunities – Trey Lewis could end up with a lot of playing time as he is the only DT on the club who is worthy of getting playing time and also has some true run-stopping girth. He seemed to take a slight step backwards last season, but if he can return to the promise he showed as a rookie, he could be a lifeline for the D-Line.

Threats – Michael Turner cannot expect to last long if he carries as much of a load as he did last season. A large chunk of his running style is the kind that shortens a RBs career. Outside of Jonathan Abraham, the front seven lacks the speed on the outside positions to contain a spread offense. At the same time it has the lack of size in the middle to stop the power running games. With the loss of Harry Douglas as the WR3, will the Falcons get production out of newly signed Robert Ferguson and Marty Booker.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Eventually, this season, John Abraham will pass his aura as the defensive leader to Curtis Lofton, as long as Lofton can keep from having lapses. This may be early, but it's as close a thing to a potential torch-passing they have.

Position Battle - CB: Chris Houston vs. Chevis Jackson. Houston should win it hands down, but Jackson will make a push. Brent Grimes might be in the mix too.

Rookie Contributor – DT Peria Jerry will probably start from Day 1. He needs to prove he can take a beating. He runs about 299 pounds and will play alongside Jonathan Babineaux who is even lighter. Before William Moore got hurt (which might take him out of the early part of the season), he had a chance to push Coleman and DeCoud.

Carolina Panthers

Strengths – DeAngelo Williams was a pleasant surprise last season. He looked dominant at times. Teaming him up in a “Lightening/Thunder” combination with Jonathan Stewart is a lethal combo for any defense. Stewart had flashes last season showing he could be a starting back. Teams with RB situations like this tend to thrive late into the year. To give them a boost, the Panthers have a strong O-Line made for run blocking. The group is made up of a nice mix of veterans and youngsters. LT Jordan Gross will lead the way again, with C Ryan Kalil and RT Jeff Otah ready to take a step up the ladder this year.

Weaknesses – The Defensive line was already lacking a decent bookend for Julius Peppers, but received the next biggest blow to losing Peppers for the year. They lost Ma’ake Kemoeatu to an achilles tear. Kemoeatu was an unsung cog of the line last year, tying up extra blockers. Now the team must turn to Nick Hayden and rookie Corey Irvin to fill in. Adding a veteran DT could be a solution.

Opportunities – Damione Lewis has a shot to prove why he was worthy of a 1^st round pick years ago by the Rams. He may have a long year ahead of him, but the coaches will know his true value in the absence of Kemoeatu. Charles Godfrey is in his second year as the starting FS, and can take this opportunity to take the reigns on the DB calls. As a former CB, his coverage skills can provide the extra support for when Chris Harris wants to roam near the line.

Threats – Jake Delhomme’s targets outside of Steve Smith are not impressive. If Delhomme falters early, due to a lack of good targets, will the fans start chanting Josh McCown’s name? Losing Geoff Hangartner and Frank Omiyale to free agency leaves the team with very little depth on the offensive line. One injury can put that line in a bad place. Jon Beason could be the biggest loser in the Kemoeatu injury. He may have to deal with blockers that were previously tied up by the big guy.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Not many changing hands here. Closest would be Richard Marshall finally stepping into a full time starting role, now that Ken Lucas is elsewhere. This was somewhat in effect last year, but will be interesting to see if he takes a step up or down this year.

Position Battle – DE: Tyler Brayton vs. Charles Johnson (maybe vs. Everette Brown). The left DE spot should be wide open for these two to compete. Everette Brown is entrenched behind Peppers, but if he’s the best pass rusher of the three, he needs to be out there on passing downs opposite Peppers.

Rookie Contributor – DT Corey Irvin looks to be part of the DT rotation now. With the lack of O-Line depth, Duke Robinson could see some snaps. However, there is a Dark Horse. RB Mike Goodson has the coaches intrigued, and could get a few carries. You can’t keep that kind of talent off the field.

New Orleans Saints

Strengths – This was one of the best offenses in the league last season. There is no reason to think it won’t continue that this season. Drew Brees could have the MVP award in his sights. He proved last year that he has no problem posting huge numbers while spreading the ball around. The offensive line lacks big names, but plays well together and keeps Brees off his back.

Weaknesses – The defense has been a weakness of this team for years. They are almost like a 6-pack. They have all the pieces in place, but lack that little plastic thingy that holds it all together. There is very little depth in the front seven. This came to light with last year’s absences. They can only really afford one injury at DE.

Opportunities – Could the passing attack get even better with a healthy Colston around all year? Sedrick Ellis had some flashes of brilliance last season. Could he become the stud DT that this defense has desperately been missing? Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams likes to bring the rush from multiple areas of the defense. The current set of DBs possess some physical attributes that makes them great candidates to rush off the edge. Will they put this defense over the top?

Threats – Will Reggie Bush’s knees become an issue? Pierre Thomas is the starting RB, and an underrated one at that. But, Bush is the home-run threat that keeps defenses honest, allowing the offense to open up.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Darren Sharper, from VACANT, as the QB of the defense. Sharper could prove to be one of those missing cogs that this defense needs to put it over the top. If Sharper doesn’t show his age, this is within reach. If he does, look for Malcolm Jenkins to proceed to take the torch from Sharper.

Position Battle – CB: Randall Gay vs. Jason David vs. Jabari Greer. Gay should have the spot locked up, but Gregg Williams apparently really likes Jabari Greer. Jason David is in the mix, but still has a lot to prove, as he never really fulfilled the potential the team thought it was bringing in.

Rookie Contributor – Malcolm Jenkins and SS Chip Vaughn are the rookies with any chance of getting playing time. They may end up only getting spot duty and special teams work, but both are an injury (or poor play) away from starting.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strengths – Can someone tell me where this offensive line came from? LT Donald Penn came out of nowhere and proved to be a good pass blocker. RT Jeremy Trueblood plays with heart (and sometimes too much, leading to on field fights). RG Davin Joseph is a stud. Jeff Faine has proven to be a great addition. At LG, Arron Sears’s career may be in jeopardy, but Jeremy Zuttah deserved a shot at a starting job anyway. The team might have a bunch of no-namers now, but the talent of this defense is still at LB. The LB corps run deep and boast a lot of speed. They will be led by Angelo Crowell and Barrett Ruud.

Weaknesses – This D-Line does not resemble a Monte Kiffin D-Line. The talent is lacking in a big way, especially at defensive end. Outside of Antonio Bryant, the WRs need to step it up, because they haven’t proven anything, and need to give the rookie QB some nice targets. Dexter Jackson has been talked up this off-season, but that’s about it. Can Michael Clayton ever regain rookie form?

Opportunities – Aqib Talib looked great on the field last season (ahem…ON the field). He could put himself into position to take on #1 WRs this year. Tanard Jackson and Sabby Piscitelli boast a lot of potential going into their third years with the club. We could see them manning the middle of the D-Backfield for years.

Threats – Are the RBs as good as their hype? Ward looked great in New York, but was playing for a contract. He also doesn’t have Jacobs, and almost more importantly, Bradshaw to team up with. Earnest Graham is decent, and had a good year two years ago, but which Graham will show up this year. Cadillac Williams is a wild card, but cannot be counted on. Kellen Winslow could be a great addition for Josh Freeman to use as a safety valve, or he can continue to be a head-case. Apparently, one Bucs coach has made a comment about the latter.

Passing/Receiving the Torch – Weak-side LB Jermaine Phillips moves over from safety to take the torch from departed defensive leader Derrick Brooks. This is the playmaking position of the defense. The front-seven is schemed in a way to open this position up to make a lot of plays.

Position Battle – QB: Josh Freeman vs. Byron Leftwich. The strong-armed (almost Flacco-ish) rookie versus Roethlisburger’s capable fill-in.

Rookie Contributor – Obviously Freeman, if he lands the starting gig. However, don’t rule out DT Roy Miller and DE Kyle Moore. There will be plenty off opportunity for playing time on that D-Line.

Saturday Night Live Blog: InClement Weather's Two Snapshots & 1 Video

One of these is courtesy of yours truly. The other has to go to Yahoo! Sports. The final props goes to YouTube.

Arizona Cardinals defeat (SHOCK!!!) Carolina Panthers 33-7. Seriously. Those Arizona Cardinals. Seriously. See? See? See? See?

I could choose to do the popular thing and chew out Steve Smith. Who I despise and have always called out for being the antithesis of a team leader . Don't you dare cite that useless touchdown in the final 50 seconds either. Or better yet, Jake Delhomme. Happy 34th birthday!!! Who for some reason I love to watch F-A-I-L. He looked ready to turn the ball over ten times. Or maybe Jon Beason (who I highlighted in the 5 Questions column this morning) for being irrelevant outside of a nice INT when the team was down 20 in the 3rd quarter. Or how about Julius Peppers? Remember him? Me neither after today. I could just chew out an overrated NFC South, right? Nah.

Instead, fellow staff writer Sum inspired this...

Boy will I miss hearing about how the Cardinals are 0-5 on the East Coast. So so much.
Source: ME!

One final thought on this game. Did it look like the Cardinals missed Anquan Boldin? Not so much. Rest up 'Quan. Get healthy for the NFC Championship. The game in which the Cardinals are playing. Seriously.

Baltimore Ravens defeat (outlast) Tennessee Titans, 13-10.
I can honestly admit I didn't watch a single snap of the game. Family obligations take 1 of 4 Divisional Round Playoff games every year. However, Yahoo Sports! had this to say...

(Chris Chase) Another game, another officiating error in the NFL. On a key 3rd and 2 with 2:52 remaining in today's divisional playoff game between the Baltimore Ravens and Tennessee Titans, the play clock clearly expired well before Joe Flacco received the snap, but no delay of game call came from the officials.

See the picture yourself (below). I'm more than certain this video is coming to your next Sportscenter. And no, we're not talking about a split-second delay between 0 and snap either. Drop that excuse. Props to typical Raven offensive MVP Matt Stover though. And no, I don't think Baltimore won because of this play alone.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

My "analysis" says if you turn the ball over 3 times in the redzone, you're never likely to win. Nevertheless, this was a major miscue from the zebras.

As for the video...now THIS is a playoff h-i-t. Whomever Baltimore travels to next weekend, don't focus too much on Ed Reed (as hard as that is) or a hit like THIS (see video below) might happen to you and your fullback. Although what we really want is more of this.

One word: OUCH.




See you Sunday morning...

5 NFL Questions - Divisional Round Saturday

5 Questions for EACH game. Lucky you, right?

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans [4:30 pm, CBS]

If Albert Haynesworth is the BEAST of this defense, it only makes its leader (above) that much more lethal.

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

1) What type of impact will the Raven wideouts (Mason & Clayton) have against the suddenly-vaunted duo of Finnegan & Harper?
2) How will the Titans handle the impact of missing All Pro C Kevin Mawae; specifically, with Ravens monster DT Haloti Ngata?
3) Which duo will see more carries today: McClain/McGahee or White/Johnson?
4) Which team will be able to convert redzone possessions into TDs rather than FG attempts?
5) Over/under for Ed Reed INTs is 2. Over/under for Ed Reed pick-sixes is 1. Your calls?

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers [8:15 pm, FOX]

If you don't know who Jon Beason is yet...be prepared to after Saturday night.
Credit: MM.news-record

1) Can Anquan Boldin again defy the doctor's expectations and be a factor - or suit up at all - Saturday night?
2) Does Arizona stand any reasonable chance of stopping the duo of DeAngelo Williams and "The Daily Show"?
3) Who's the better deepball, downfield threat in this game: Larry Fitzgerald or Steve Smith?
4) Will Jake Delhomme take care of the ball like a playoff quarterback must?
5) Will Julius Peppers reign havoc on a statue-esque Kurt Warner?

Enjoy the games. Feel free to comment with some of your own questions, answers to mine, or score predictions.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Arizona at Carolina

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do follow Edge's hot hand. He and Kurt Warner have legit playoff experience, and Edge proved that he is still a force to be reckoned with last week. Carolina's run D may be better than Atlanta's, but a committment to the run helps out the aged Warner.

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Yes, this is a repeat from last week, but it worked against Michael "Burner" Turner, and the Panthers have an incredible two-headed beast in the running game. If both DeAngelo and The Daily Show are stymied early, John Fox may panic and become too reliant on Jake Delhomme.

Do pray for Anquan Boldin's health. Yes, Steve Breaston is a capabable WR2 ... but he's no Quan. Plus, Boldin was a bright spot in the regular season matchup against the Panthers, where he caught 9 passes for 63 yards and 2 TDs and had a 30 yard scamper on his sole rushing attempt. And that was just his first game back from his earlier injuries.

Don’t be afraid to use Kurt Warner's arm this week. Warner torched the Carolina secondary for 381 yards in the first game, and probably can get near that total again if Boldin plays. I may dog Warner from time to time, but he does have the playoff wisdom and experience, and it would be smart to rely on him here ... just as he relies on his Depends.

Don’t let Jake Delhomme get comfortable. Remember, this is the guy that only managed 72 passing yards against Oakland and only 102 yards against Detroit. He only threw 3 more TDs than INTs on the season. In other words, his mistakes are your keys to winning ... period.

Carolina Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do knock the stuffing out of Kurt Warner. Atlanta didn't listen to me and see what happened to them. Put grandpa on his derrier early and often, or at least hurry him before Fitzgerald and Co. have time to break free in the secondary.

Do what you do best ... run the damn ball. Yes, it's a simplistic point, but a key one. Atlanta only ran the ball 24 times (including 4 rushes by Matt Ryan) compared with 40 passing attempts. You will lose 7/10 playoff games if you stick to that math. Even if the run sputters early, stay committed to it. If you can achieve the same 29-rush/28-pass balance that you had in the regular season, you'll be in the NFC Championship Game next weekend.

Do get the crowd involved early. Arizona thrived off its fans cheers last week ... at least that's what Cris Collinsworth kept telling me. So if fan cheers can motivate Arizona's D to play above its potential, logic dictates that negative fan reactions (read: BOOO's) should make them play like the team that gave up 56 points to the Jets.

Don’t forget to feed DE Charles Johnson his Wheaties before the game. The relatively quiet lineman notched 2 sacks and a forced fumble in the Week 8 contest. It will take efforts from all members of the defense to stop the potentially high-powered Cardinals offense, just like it did 11 weeks ago.

Don’t be too afraid to rely on Jake Delhomme. He may not be the same QB who took you to the Super Bowl where you got to see Janet Jackson's boobie, and he may have struggled against teams like the Lions (the LIONS!?!?!?) this season, but he can put on a show when necessary. Just build up his confidence early with a few simple passes, and he'll remember that he's kind of a big deal.

Key Matchups:

When Arizona has the ball
OTs Levi Brown & Mike Gandy vs. DEs Charles Johnson and Julius Peppers
As I noted above, and as I've noted every time I've spoken about Kurt Warner, if he gets time he's a beast to the other team, but if he's rushed/hurried then he's a beast to his own team. Johnson had solid success against Levi Brown in Week 8, but Peppers was limited to just 3 tackles, no sacks and no passes defensed by Gandy. If the OTs can limit these defensive linemen to a max of 1 sack and only a handful of hurries, the Cardinals should do well.

When Carolina has the ball
RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart vs. OLB Karlos Dansby
Maybe I'm slighting the Arizona D-Line a bit (I hereby give you permission to use this as bulletin board material) since that unit did a lot to stop Michael Turner last week. However, Karlos Dansby scored 8 tackles (6 solo), 3 of which were for a loss. Working against Dansby's favor is that the Panthers have two reliable running backs, thereby enabling them to keep their RB fresh while Dansby will grow tired as the game goes on. Working in Dansby's favor is the Week 8 game where he logged 9 tackles (6 solo), a sack and a forced fumble. This should be good.

Intangibles:

Jet Lag
0-5. That's Arizona's record in road games outside the NFC West. This team just does not travel well outside its time zone. I will give Coach Whisenhunt props for trying to be creative this year by opting to stay on the East Coast between his team's games against the Redskins and Jets. Of course, that resulted in giving up 56 points to the Jets and losing Anquan Boldin for a few weeks ... but it was creative. The Cardinals need to get past the mental road block against their East Coast slide, or else this game is already over.

Consistency
Both teams had some impressive wins this season. Carolina can look to its crushing of Denver, the Week 1 squeaker against San Diego, and can even take some pride in its loss in the slobberknocker of a game against the Giants. Arizona takes pride in its demolishing of Buffalo (in the first half of the season when the Bills were still good), its quality early season win against Dallas, and decent performances against the Giants and Panthers. However, each team also had some mind-boggling games as well. Carolina has to deal with the thrashing handed out by Tampa Bay in Week 6, the 17-point loss to Atlanta in Week 12, and the fact that they only beat Detroit by 9-points. Arizona, of course, got "blowed out" by the Jets, the Vikings, and the Patriots. The time for inconsistent play is gone, it's the playoffs.

Final Score Prediction:
Carolina wins, 31-23.

Tuesday FourCast: Week 14

Not much of an intro to this week's FourCast. But I must point out that I really, really had to fight the urge of my childish mentality (equivalent to that of an 11-year old boy) which wanted me to post the video clip of Visanthe's "Shiancoe." I mean, to post a link to the obvious flub by Fox would be unprofessional and immature. Seriously, we here at PHSports consider ourselves a legitimate media outlet and would never even consider linking to a video clip at the expense of the Minnesota Tight End and his "Viking." Never.

1. Long Schaub Silver's
Matt Schaub was once regarded as a diamond in the rough. NFL scouts and analysts thought he was the second coming of Joe Montana or Johnny Unitas. Hell, Schaub received enough praise to make Beano Cook's love of Ron Powlus look like a schoolgirl crush. Of course, this was before Schaub had ever taken a meaningful regular season snap. Now that Matty has played nearly two seasons (19 games) as the Houston Texans starting QB, he has thrown for only 3 more TDs than INTs (21 to 18), and has a QB rating of somewhere in the viscinity of 89.6. Not terrible numbers ... but nothing that would lead you to believe that he'd win more Heismans than Powlus. That leads us to Sunday's game against the Packers. The Pack's defense is not a group of pushovers, especially not the secondary. Yet Schaub managed to pick that unit apart for 414 yards and 2 TDs, including a 58-yarder to Kevin Walter (chicks dig the long ball). If that's the Schaub that the NFL was clamoring about, then the Texans have a shot at a bright future. But for now, he's just as consistent as Kordell Stewart.

2. "Do women (or the Bills) know about Shrinkage?"
4-10 since 1994. 2-7 all-time in games after December 1. Those are various win-loss records of the Miami Dolphins in Buffalo. Obviously the Fins don't like cold weather. So Sunday's game at Buffalo should've provided the Bills a chance at recovering from their current slump. Even with J.P. Los"er"man starting in place of the injured Trent Edwards, that frigid upstate New York weather was going to paralyze Miami. Problem: the game wasn't in Buffalo. Huh? Ralph "A penny saved is a penny earned" Wilson was so s-m-r-t as to give away the edge the weather gave his team over a warm weather franchise and have the game played indoors?
Evidently, the Wilson's bank account isn't the only place where he needs help. Sure, I get the idea of testing out a new market for your team. Especially one that has a larger population and higher tv-viewership than Buffalo. But why not move the game against New England there? Or the Jets? Why let the "warm fuzzies" known as the Dolphins play in a stadium that's protected from the ball-freezing weather in Buffalo in December? It makes no sense. Sorry Buffalo fans, but this decision by your team's ownership was "wide right."

3. Is That a Concealed Handgun in Plaxico's Pocket? Or Are You Just Happy to See Me?
Back in the pre-season, I declared that the New York Giants didn't need lots of talent at wide receiver. That statement was prompted by the Giants performance during the all-important third week of the pre-season in which Eli Manning completed seven passes to five different receivers, none of whom was named Plaxico or Amani. Last week, against the Redskins, my observation appeared to be accurate. Eli threw for 305 yards, completing 21 passes to six different receivers, all with Plaxico out due to his inability to control his piece. But this past Sunday, against the Eagles, it seemed the Giants receivered not named Burress weren't up to the task. Domenick Hixon (the same guy who caught two TDs in the aforementioned pre-season game) dropped a beautiful lob from Manning that was a surefire TD. The drops were all over the place as the receiving crew did all they could to try and prove me wrong. Unfortunately, I'm stubborn (yes, I'm hard headed) and refuse to admit that I'm wrong quite yet. I still say that Manning doesn't need Burress or an exceptional WR to make plays happen. Last week was the exception ... week 13 against the Redskins was the rule.

4. Which NFC Division Has the Stroke?
A month or so into the season, many were declaring the NFC East as the best division in football. None of the four teams had a losing record, and the only losses for any of the teams had occured within the division. Fourteen weeks into the season and still all four teams are above .500. But the same holds true for the NFC South. After the slobber-knocker between Tampa and Carolina last night, the NFC South has a combined record of 34-18 (.654). The NFC East stands firm at 33-18-1 (.644). Outside of their respective division games, the East is 24-9-1 (.721) and the South is 24-8 (.750). The difference between the two divisions is like splitting hairs. In two weeks the current division leaders will meet as the Giants (11-2) will face the Panthers (10-3) in a game that will determine the #1 seed in the NFC playoffs. Not to take away from the NFC East's achievements thus far, because the combined win-loss record of those four teams is truly stellar. But, perhaps, self-proclaimed sports-gurus were a bit too quick to "crown their ass."

Clement’s Weekly Picks & Prognostications…Week 13

13 weeks and there are 5 questions you have to ask yourself this time of the season:

1) Is my team in the playoff hunt?
2) Is my fantasy team contending for the regular season championship?
3) Is my favorite player healthy?
4) What is the odds on Super Bowl?
5) Where in the standings are the team(s) I hate the most?

Unfortunately, several people have negative answers for all of them.
To you, I say…stop rooting for the Lions and drafting them in fantasy football.

Let’s roll on towards our push for 40 correct picks before Week 15.

Ike Taylor will need more than motivation from head coach Mike Tomlin come Sunday.
Mission: Cover Randy Moss
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

…Turkey Day results included…
NFL Picks: 35-19 (With prospective, my Iggles prediction was a little crazy.)
Upset Special: 9-10 (This isn’t the ‘Year of the Upset’.)

…Sportsbetting.com gets the honors (but don’t bet!)…

Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
Not sure what the Colts did to keep this game under a touchdown spread; however, I’m not buying for one second that Peyton and co. will have to squeak this one out. Derek Anderson is going to be a well paid backup next season. Colts win BIG.

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)
Never rely on the ‘Aints. The Bucs are quietly becoming one of the more solid teams in the NFC this past month. Nevertheless – even though I’m picking them to cover this week – who doesn’t believe this is the team you want to play come playoff time.

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers (-3)
Two tricky teams for me all season, I’ll take the Pack at home to be a little more desperate than the Panthers. I also don’t trust Carolina on the road. Memo to the Pack: run run run with Ryan Grant. Preferably away from Julius Peppers.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots (-1)
Just about a pick’em game, this is the type of game the experts love to avoid. NOT ME! While Roethlisberger can pick apart the Patriot secondary, I’m looking at another Pro Bowl Steeler – Troy Polamalu – to make the plays this team needs to win. He will. Steelers win a brutally tough road game. Somehow, someway.

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Major game in the NFC North as 7-5 might be the driver’s seat to a title (especially with a Pack loss earlier in the day). As much as I love Matt Forte’s impact with da Bears, I’m taking Apete at home to break off a big run or five against a Jekyl and Hyde defense from Chicago.

Ten Fantasy Insights this Weekend
1) There were a TON of major fantasy plays this weekend, especially Warner/Romo/TO/Westbrook/McNabb/Titan RBs/Calvin Johnson/Cardinal WRs/Marion Barber III/anyone else I didn’t mention. Thursday may have impacted fantasy games more than Sunday.
2) For all of you who picked up Shaun Alexander after the Skins signed him…ha ha.
3) Kevin Walter may catch 10 TDs this season. AJ…5 or less. Wow.
4) Don’t start Zach Miller. He’s still a Raider.
5) Tyler Thigpen had the ’09 KC QB job before the turnover-fest began last week.
6) When do we get a Peyton Manning/Greg Oden commercial?
7) Chester Taylor is worth a flex start.
8) Jabar Gaffney is not.
9) Santonio Holmes is a risky play if you need a TD out of your receiver badly this week.
10) How many of you sat Brian Westbrook??? Ouch.

See you next week!!!

5 NFL Questions - Week 7

1. Which Carolina Panthers team will come to play versus the healthy New Orleans Saints?
2. Can Adrian Peterson (the good one) have a repeat performance of his last visit to Soldier Field?
3. How will San Diego react to the 10am Pacific time start in Buffalo? It'll be 51 degrees at kickoff. The last time it was 51 degrees in October in San Diego ... it was the ice age.
4. In the Cleveland/Washington late game today, who will be Jekyll and who will be Hyde?
5. What tactics will Bill Belichick employ in order to limit Brandon Marshall's production against the largest collection of retread cornerbacks?

5 NFL Questions - Week 5

1. Will the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers be able to play and be effective?
2. With both starting tackles out for Carolina, can Kansas City actually get to the quarterback?
3. Can Indianapolis hold Houston's backs to under 125 yards?
4. Which unconventional formation (if any) will we see from the Miami Dolphins?
5. Is Adrian Peterson due for a 200-yard game?

5 NFL Questions – Week 3

1. How will Tony Romo be received at his homecoming?
2. Will the Raiders be smart and kick away from Roscoe Parrish?
3. Will the Eagles’ offense continue to roll or will Pittsburgh make them return to reality?
4. Which late game will yield the most points scored?
5. Which underdog (excluding Carolina) will win today?

2008 Season NFL Predictions

Last year I began what I hoped would become an annual tradition. Making my NFL regular season and playoff predictions by going through and picking a winner in each of the 256 games played during the regular season. Following that, I determine which teams make the playoffs by handling all tie-breakers according to NFL rules. And unlike many other "professional" sports writers, I held myself accountable before the next season, taking myself to task when I f'd up, and patting myself on the back for the few correct things (like picking the Chiefs to go 4-12).

Without further ado, here are my predictions for the 2008-2009 NFL Season, berate them as you must:

NFC
NFC East *Dallas 13-3 **Philadelphia 10-6 NY Giants 8-8 Washington 6-10 Dallas is clearly the class of this division. The high powered offense plus the mean defense means another dominant season for Jerry Jones’ squad. Meanwhile, the Iggles should be back behind D-McNabb and Westbrook. The Giants defense is too banged up to be able to drag the offense into the playoffs again. And the Redskins will have growing pains under first year coach Jim Zorn.	NFC North *Minnesota 12-4 Green Bay 8-8 Chicago 5-11 Detroit 4-12 Minnesota should do very well this season, despite having Tarvaris Jackson at the helm. But if he plays the “Trent Dilfer” role, then the Vikes will be atop the Norris division again. Green Bay will perform decently as Aaron Rodgers gets used to leading the team, but they’ll be better next year. Chicago is slightly less abysmal with Orton at QB. Detroit … well, Matt Millen will somehow avoid being fired.
NFC South *Carolina 11-5 **New Orleans 10-6 Tampa Bay 7-9 Atlanta 4-12 Carolina will work out some early season kinks and Delhomme will find his touch just in time to guide the Panthers well. The Saints will also be back in the mix of things with their high-powered offense and average defense. Tampa will try a few different QBs and stumble their way through a sub-par season. Atlanta may finish with the same record as last year, but they’ll be a stronger team as Matt Ryan gets his NFL education.	NFC West *Seattle 12-4 San Francisco 6-10 Arizona 6-10 St. Louis 5-11 A piss poor division to say the least. Seattle is a solid team surrounded by mediocrity. The Hawks will follow their defense and a running back by committee routine to the top of the division. San Fran will have a steady hand in J.T. O’Sullivan, but will have enough troubles to avoid achieving success. The Cardinals are still mired in their QB controversy, and I don’t see it going away. The Rams … well, they need an overhaul at WR and QB.
Tie breaker note: MIN gets the 2-seed due to a better in-conference record than SEA; NO gets the 5-seed by virtue of a better won-lost-tied percentage than PHI in common games.
AFC
AFC East *New England 13-3 NY Jets 9-7 Buffalo 5-11 Miami 5-11 The Pats will not finish undefeated again, an aging defense will stop that from happening. However, they’re still atop the AFC and will dominate the East. The Jets will bounce back from the garbage they fed their fans last year, but the vanilla offense led by Favre will be figured out by teams as the season goes on. Buffalo and Miami are both better than their records suggest, but each still has some bugs to work out before they can crack an 8-8 season.	AFC North *Pittsburgh 10-6 Cleveland 8-8 Cincinnati 5-11 Baltimore 4-12 Pittsburgh wins this division, almost by default. Even with a diminished offensive line, they should win out here. Cleveland isn’t as bad as their 8-8 finish, but they won’t be in contention for the playoffs this year. Anderson’s magical ride will start to turn sour and we’ll see the rise of Brady Quinn. Cincy may or may not have Chad Ocho Cinco, depending on his torn labrum, but even with him, the defense is too weak to have much success in the AFC. The Ravens are too green on the offense and too old on the defense.
AFC South *Indianapolis 12-4 **Jacksonville 11-5 Tennessee 9-7 Houston 7-9 The Colts have a nice strangle-hold on the South … even though they’re in the Midwest. Peyton has plenty of targets, and he’ll make use of all of them. The Jaguars like what they have on the offense, and Matt Jones may finally emerge as a solid receiver. The Titans need Vince Young to learn to throw the ball before they become a truly serious threat. Houston will need to solve its running back quartet before they can truly expect to compete for a playoff spot in the AFC.	AFC West *San Diego 13-3 **Denver 11-5 Oakland 4-12 Kansas City 3-13 Norv Turner may just have a heart attack. Poor guy isn’t used to this success thing, but when L.T. leads your team, it’s hard not to find it. I expect Denver to have a solid season with Jay Cutler having his diabetes under control and finding rhythm with both Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler. Oakland’s record is tied to the health of Darren McFadden and the use of outlet receivers by JaMarcus Russell. Kansas City is just bad. Barring a return to glory by L.J., they’ll be worse than last year.
Tie breaker note: NE gets the 1 seed by virtue of a head-to-head win over SD. JAC gets the 5-seed due to a head-to-head win over DEN.

Wildcard Playoffs (winner in Italics)

Philadelphia at Seattle – Seattle has had an awesome home advantage in the playoffs in recent history. That continues against the more talented Philly team.

New Orleans at Carolina – Carolina let the Saints win the regular season finale since that really wouldn’t affect their playoff stance. However, the real Carolina team shows up this time.

Denver at Indianapolis – Cutler performs remarkably throughout the season, and gives Peyton a run for his money in this match-up. Ultimately, however, the Colts are a far more complete team than the Broncos.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh – Garrard and MoJoDro lead the way as the Steelers don’t even put up a real fight.

Divisional Playoffs

Carolina at Dallas – Another year, another playoff disappointment for Tony Romo. Marion Barber, III plays his heart out, but in the end it’ll be the two-headed rushing attack of Carolina that’ll leave T.O. in tears again.

Seattle at Minnesota – Seattle’s defensive line will put way too much pressure on Tarvaris Jackson to allow the mediocre QB to do anything other than hand the ball off. The lack of a passing game will be enough to allow Seattle to squeak by the Vikes.

Jacksonville at New England – Wow. This AFC Divisional round looks kinda similar, no? The result of this portion will look similar as well, with Tom Brady looking picture perfect in a nail-biter against the talented Jags.

Indianapolis at San Diego – This half of the AFC Divisional round, however, won’t be a repeat. Indy romps the Bolts in San Diego, setting up football’s equivalent of Nadal vs. Federer in the AFC Championship game.

Conference Finals

Seattle at Carolina – The Panthers return to the Super Bowl, this time following the lead of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Delhomme likes having more than one option at WR, and guides his team past a stingy Seattle defense.

Indianapolis at New England – Tom Brady has one thing on his mind … another Super Bowl ring. Joe Cool, Jr. is up to the task and directs his less talented team to a nice victory in the frigid Massachusetts weather.

Super Bowl

Carolina vs. New England – I don’t like predicting repeats of recent Super Bowls (especially if there’s no chance of a repeated wardrobe malfunction), but I guess I’m really high on the Panthers this season. On paper, the Panthers should win this one with their strong offense against the aging Pats defense. But that won’t happen. New England makes up for it’s crappy play in the last Super Bowl and wins this one 24-20.

2008 NFL Draft: Final Review

The 2008 NFL Draft is over. There were some highs and lows, as with any draft. However, the theme that I would give this draft is the "Draft for Need" strategy. There weren't as many Best Player Available (BPA) picks as with past drafts. The "Draft for Need" strategy is exactly why we saw a run on offensive linemen in the first round as teams began to panic. Overall, while most teams helped themselves, we saw some add as many as 4 potential starters to their teams.

Everyone had Glenn Dorsey as the obvious steal of the top 5, but who else might be a regular name that was all but stolen in this year's selection show?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Top 5 Drafts

1) Kansas City Chiefs: They went 6 deep with players that could offer the team help immediately. Glenn Dorsey fell in their laps, and instead of kicking back and basking in the sunlight of their fortune, they Chiefs went to work. Trading up for Branden Albert was huge, after he dropped further than his hype would have led some to believe. Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr have potential to get some significant playing time on this team as backup corners. Jamaal Charles will replace another Texas back (Holmes) as Larry Johnson's backup. Brad Cottam is a sleeper who could end up turning some heads, and he will learn behind one of the greatest TEs of all time in Gonzo.

2) Dallas Cowboys: Jerrah Jones puts some nice drafts together. He didn't let down this year. Felix Jones and Mike Jenkins will fill big roles with that team and could eventually be stars. However, my favorite picks for them were Martellus Bennett and Orlando Scandrick. Bennett, in my opinion was the best talent at TE in the draft, just based on his upside and similar ability to Antonio Gates. Scandrick was a 3rd round projection for me, but was stolen in the 5th round. Tashard Choice was an interesting pick with Felix Jones already onboard. However, Choice could be a nice steal in a couple of years too.

3) Washington Redskins: No, this is not a homer pick (Editor's Note: This is such a homer pick. Who passes on a defensive lineman with three picks in the top 51). The Redskins actually had a draft this year. Furthermore, they trade they made with the Falcons while still landing the top ranked WR on my list. Devin Thomas, Fred Davis and Malcolm Kelly could all help the team this season. The Danny stocked the shelves for his new head coach and his West Coast Offense. Chad Rinehardt was one of my sleeper picks who has vast potential at guard, while he could back up four positions for this team once he works on some mechanics. Justin Tryon and Kareem Moore could help out more than expected on a secondary that is short on bodies. Tryon may be small, but has the athletic ability and attitude to make a difference. Moore is a playmaker. They also added the top punter in the draft.

4) Carolina Panthers: Regardless of the first rounder that they miss out on next year, drafting Jonathan Stewart and Jeff Otah in the first round helps the teams at two positions where they needed the most help. They got what I felt were two Day One players on Day Two in Charles Godfrey and Dan Connor. All four players could earn significant playing time as rookies. Tight end Gary Barnidge could be a sleeper.

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Though lacking many pressing needs, the Buccaneers addressed them with value. First, they selected oft-criticized CB Aqib Talib, who can be plugged into the starting lineup to fill the void left by Brian Kelly who jettisoned for Detroit. Knowing that at least eight games per year are played in sweltering heat, the Bucs latched onto the speedy Dexter Jackson out of App State. Before you know it, OG Jeremy Zuttah and DT Dre Moore may be starters on the respective lines, while Josh Johnson has plenty of upside at QB.

If you were the GM/Owner of the Cowboys, might you have tabbed Mendenhall over Jones?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Worst 5 Drafts

1) Tennessee Titans: Ouch. For the third straight year, the Titans selected a running back in the first two rounds of the draft. Not to mention, Chris Johnson was on no one's radar as a 1st-round draft pick before the combine. If that's not a red flag, then I would like to know what is. Defensive end Jason Jones and WR Lavelle Hawkins may very well be the keys to any value being reaped out of this draft for Tennessee.

2) New York Jets: Sorry, Clement. Despite the Gholston pick not being as debilitating (yet) as some pundits have put it, the Jets did not have an effective draft. Simply stated, trading up to select Dustin Keller (hello, 2nd-round grade AT BEST) is appalling. At the 30th pick, the Jets could have addressed a need at WR. Meanwhile, they waited until the pick #171 to do that.

3) Jacksonville Jaguars: If Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves do not produce in the next two years, there will be an overhaul in management. It's that obvious. While I laud the Jags aggressive player target approach, they gave up too many draft picks and did not address other needs. Rumors are abound that they are trying to acquire Eagles CB Lito Sheppard. If they do, it will be with 2009 draft picks.

4) Cincinnati Bengals: Who doesn't take a 1st-round pick and a conditional 3rd-round pick for Chad Johnson? Apparently, the Bengals don't. After the no-brainer Keith Rivers pick at #9, the Bengals went with WRs in the next two rounds. Though Anthony Collins and Pat Sims could start at some point, I look at these selections and ask myself, "Did this team get tougher?" The short answer is no.

5) Atlanta Falcons: This was a top choice, because I thought some of the late-round selections merited praise. Nevertheless, the Falcons passed up a stud defensive tackle in Glenn Dorsey, and for that, they will suffer. Later in the first round, the Falcons did a rare thing and made Vinny Cerrato look good, jumping up 13 spots to reach for Sam Baker. Though Curtis Lofton and Harry Douglas could push for starting positions immediately, the Falcons remain thin and weak on the D-Line.

Is it just Clement, or would Gholston be considered the "prize" of the draft Jerod Mayo suddenly became if the all-too-brilliant-and-perfect Patriots drafted him?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports (and a bitter Jets fan tired of the post-draft HATE)

Steals

1) Glenn Dorsey and Branden Albert, Kansas City Chiefs: Are you kidding me? The only thing I see that can hurt Dorsey's value is the effect that lengthy contract negotiations will have on his psyche. I added Albert because many had him going in the top 10.

2) Limas Sweed, Pittsburgh Steelers: Todd McShay rated him with a first-round grade. If he is able to stay healthy, Sweed immediately becomes a deep threat for the Steelers and could work his way into becoming a long-term replacement for Hines Ward.

3) Brandon Flowers, Kansas City Chiefs: According to the game tape, Flowers has amazing technique, physicality and ball skills. Strike the 40-time and his smaller build, and you have a top 11 pick.

4) Dan Connor, Carolina Panthers: Expected to be selected by the middle of the second round, Connor fell to the 74th pick overall. With Connor, the Panthers acquire tough, intelligent and grounded linebacker who can contribute immediately.

5) Quentin Demps, Philadelphia Eagles: Taken in the 4th round, Demps is a ball-hawking safety who had 17 interceptions as a three-year starter at UTEP. Demps needs to get stronger, but can compete with Sean Considine and Quentin Mikell for the starting safety spot opposite Brian Dawkins.

Reaches

1) Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans: 24th pick? I'm just not convinced that Johnson is a three-down back. Unless he's the second coming of Thurman Thomas or Barry Sanders, which he is neither, he's a late second-round pick at best.

2) Dustin Keller, New York Jets: No chance. No way. No how. Keller will need to put up Gonzo's career numbers to validate trading up and selecting a tight end in the first round in this draft.

3) Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers: Is it just me or were the Panthers begging for the next Stephen Davis with this pick?

4) Duane Brown, Houston Texans: Brown (Richmond-native) could be great. We just don't know yet. He's a project lineman with minimal experience. Translation: The Texans should've traded down again.

5) Donnie Avery, St. Louis Rams: Addictions are dangerous. An addiction to speedy receivers may be kryptonite for a team that has been a perennial Charmin Award nominee.

There's one primetime star who wasn't dealt on draft day.
We have to ask. Who has a more inflated ego: Jason Taylor or the Tuna?

Credit: Yahoo! Sports

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