InClement Weather: Salary Crunch

Props to Armin on the fantastic work on the SWOT analysis. Be sure to check that out ASAP. His latest was the AFC North. Tweet tweet.

I'll poke my head in, if only for a moment, to talk NFL salaries. Why? Eli Manning's mega-deal (6 years at a reported $97-million, with $35-million guaranteed) has a lot of people talking.
Credit: NFLGoddess.com

No, I am not here to analyze that contract. Feel free to check that out elsewhere.

What I am here to discuss is a few interesting notes related to team salaries in 2008 and individual salaries in 2009.

Which team had the highest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) They had the #1 overall pick in 1997.
B) They won a total of 5 games last season.
C) They beat Brett Favre last season.

Which team had the lowest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) Their star RB likes to spit alcohol on women.
B) They're in the same division as the team listed above (highest payroll).
C) They are no longer in last place, thanks in large part to a newly acquired quarterback.

As for the rest of 2008, there were a few "team-related" surprises:
A) New England was third...to last. Wow.
B) Washington was in the middle of the pack. Wow.
C) Cleveland and New Orleans went #4 and #5 overall.
D) Despite Peyton Manning's insane contract, Indianapolis was in the bottom four.

As for the players, in 2008, the contracts were (of course) MASSIVE for the elite stars.

This man's smiling face was the NFL's highest paid defender last season. Not this year, thanks in large part to the tricky stipulations of NFL contracts.
Credit: PocatelloShops.com

Now it's important to note four things when viewing NFL player salaries, especially on a year by year basis:
1) No contract is guaranteed for every dollar on the penny. Eli signed for $97-million, but was guaranteed $35-million. I won't say only. You don't say only when $35-million is being discussed.
1) Base salary is often tiny compared to how much they make.
2) Signing bonuses often vault players you'd never expect in certain years. A 5-year/$50-million deal will almost never pay a guy $10-million exactly each season. Not a chance.
3) Cap value can be massaged quite a bit, especially with loaded contracts (whether front or back-loaded)
--> This means that a player might see 75% of his contract in a 2-3 year span, even if it's a 6 or 7-year deal. You'll see what I mean below.

For example, this guy's contract, which earned him over $27-million last season, broke down as such:
Base Salary = $ 2.5 million
Signing Bonus = $25.2 million
Other Bonus = $1,920
Cap Value = $7.9 million

That quarterback happened to win THIS.

But let's compare, for comparison's sake, him to the second highest paid quarterback, who made nearly $17-million last season, with his contract broken down as such:
Base Salary = $370,000
Signing Bonus = $0
Other Bonus = $16.5 million
Cap Value = $4.8 million

That quarterback had a QB rating of 77.2 in his second season as a quarterback, his first as the established full-time starter. Question is: will he have a third?

As for 2009, well that's not official just yet. Why? A few rookies have held out, a quarterback or two is still on the market (*cough* Favre), and the lingering CBA-crisis of 2010 has affected a few potential contract extensions (*cough* Leon Washington).

Nevertheless, Eli vaulted into the 3rd slot in 2009. Who is he behind?

Player #1: Carolina is paying this man more than $1-million a game. A GAME!!! The 1-year franchise tender made him the highest paid defensive player, if only for 1-year, E-V-E-R.

Player #2: Extending for 6-years (some semantics have it at 9-years total) at potentially $118.75-million is nothing to balk at. Especially when you've never won a playoff game. Check that. Never finished the one playoff game you were in. Okay, maybe that wasn't his fault. Nevertheless, the Bungles are paying A LOT of money for a quarterback for a perennial loser.

Right behind Eli? One name you might not know, but SHOULD and one contract you definitely know, but COULD'VE been even richer.

Leave it to the Raiders to hand out an "unprecedented contract". Fortunately, for once, the money was extremely well spent on the top cornerback in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha. Even better for the talented corner, he signed for only 3 years in Oakland...at a whopping $45.3 million. Of course, this is also the same team who gave their offensive MVP - punter Shane Lechler - a 4 year deal worth an insane $16-million. Yes, for a PUNTER!!!

Nobody was surprised when the Skins broke the bank for Haynesworth. Nobody.
Credit: Swampland.com

Albert Haynesworth, who rumors say turned down an even richer deal from Tampa Bay, broke the free agent bank biggest this offseason with a 7-year, $100-million dollar deal. That's an average of $14-million (plus) a year for the defensive tackle. Not too shabby and not too surprising considering Snyder and Cerato were involved.

If you want some outside perspective, here you go...in terms of total value:
1) A-Rod netted 10 years at $275-million from the Yanks, surpassing his previous record for a sport's contract.
2) The Yankees have handed out four of the five richest contracts ever (A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia). Surprise surprise, right?
3) Mike Vick used to have a contaract, at the time the richest in NFL history, for 10 years and $130-million. Now that's a distant memory, of course.
4) Kobe Bryant is the NBA's highest-paid player ever, pre Summer of 2010 Free Agent class though.
5) Bary Zito, Vernon Wells, and Rashard Lewis both have contracts at $126-million. Which surprises you most???

There's plenty to talk about with contracts - especially when guaranteed money is involved or not - and I plan on returning to the issue.

Of course on my teacher's salary, I'll need a good cry or two first. Tweet tweet.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Arizona at Carolina

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do follow Edge's hot hand. He and Kurt Warner have legit playoff experience, and Edge proved that he is still a force to be reckoned with last week. Carolina's run D may be better than Atlanta's, but a committment to the run helps out the aged Warner.

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Yes, this is a repeat from last week, but it worked against Michael "Burner" Turner, and the Panthers have an incredible two-headed beast in the running game. If both DeAngelo and The Daily Show are stymied early, John Fox may panic and become too reliant on Jake Delhomme.

Do pray for Anquan Boldin's health. Yes, Steve Breaston is a capabable WR2 ... but he's no Quan. Plus, Boldin was a bright spot in the regular season matchup against the Panthers, where he caught 9 passes for 63 yards and 2 TDs and had a 30 yard scamper on his sole rushing attempt. And that was just his first game back from his earlier injuries.

Don’t be afraid to use Kurt Warner's arm this week. Warner torched the Carolina secondary for 381 yards in the first game, and probably can get near that total again if Boldin plays. I may dog Warner from time to time, but he does have the playoff wisdom and experience, and it would be smart to rely on him here ... just as he relies on his Depends.

Don’t let Jake Delhomme get comfortable. Remember, this is the guy that only managed 72 passing yards against Oakland and only 102 yards against Detroit. He only threw 3 more TDs than INTs on the season. In other words, his mistakes are your keys to winning ... period.

Carolina Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do knock the stuffing out of Kurt Warner. Atlanta didn't listen to me and see what happened to them. Put grandpa on his derrier early and often, or at least hurry him before Fitzgerald and Co. have time to break free in the secondary.

Do what you do best ... run the damn ball. Yes, it's a simplistic point, but a key one. Atlanta only ran the ball 24 times (including 4 rushes by Matt Ryan) compared with 40 passing attempts. You will lose 7/10 playoff games if you stick to that math. Even if the run sputters early, stay committed to it. If you can achieve the same 29-rush/28-pass balance that you had in the regular season, you'll be in the NFC Championship Game next weekend.

Do get the crowd involved early. Arizona thrived off its fans cheers last week ... at least that's what Cris Collinsworth kept telling me. So if fan cheers can motivate Arizona's D to play above its potential, logic dictates that negative fan reactions (read: BOOO's) should make them play like the team that gave up 56 points to the Jets.

Don’t forget to feed DE Charles Johnson his Wheaties before the game. The relatively quiet lineman notched 2 sacks and a forced fumble in the Week 8 contest. It will take efforts from all members of the defense to stop the potentially high-powered Cardinals offense, just like it did 11 weeks ago.

Don’t be too afraid to rely on Jake Delhomme. He may not be the same QB who took you to the Super Bowl where you got to see Janet Jackson's boobie, and he may have struggled against teams like the Lions (the LIONS!?!?!?) this season, but he can put on a show when necessary. Just build up his confidence early with a few simple passes, and he'll remember that he's kind of a big deal.

Key Matchups:

When Arizona has the ball
OTs Levi Brown & Mike Gandy vs. DEs Charles Johnson and Julius Peppers
As I noted above, and as I've noted every time I've spoken about Kurt Warner, if he gets time he's a beast to the other team, but if he's rushed/hurried then he's a beast to his own team. Johnson had solid success against Levi Brown in Week 8, but Peppers was limited to just 3 tackles, no sacks and no passes defensed by Gandy. If the OTs can limit these defensive linemen to a max of 1 sack and only a handful of hurries, the Cardinals should do well.

When Carolina has the ball
RBs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart vs. OLB Karlos Dansby
Maybe I'm slighting the Arizona D-Line a bit (I hereby give you permission to use this as bulletin board material) since that unit did a lot to stop Michael Turner last week. However, Karlos Dansby scored 8 tackles (6 solo), 3 of which were for a loss. Working against Dansby's favor is that the Panthers have two reliable running backs, thereby enabling them to keep their RB fresh while Dansby will grow tired as the game goes on. Working in Dansby's favor is the Week 8 game where he logged 9 tackles (6 solo), a sack and a forced fumble. This should be good.

Intangibles:

Jet Lag
0-5. That's Arizona's record in road games outside the NFC West. This team just does not travel well outside its time zone. I will give Coach Whisenhunt props for trying to be creative this year by opting to stay on the East Coast between his team's games against the Redskins and Jets. Of course, that resulted in giving up 56 points to the Jets and losing Anquan Boldin for a few weeks ... but it was creative. The Cardinals need to get past the mental road block against their East Coast slide, or else this game is already over.

Consistency
Both teams had some impressive wins this season. Carolina can look to its crushing of Denver, the Week 1 squeaker against San Diego, and can even take some pride in its loss in the slobberknocker of a game against the Giants. Arizona takes pride in its demolishing of Buffalo (in the first half of the season when the Bills were still good), its quality early season win against Dallas, and decent performances against the Giants and Panthers. However, each team also had some mind-boggling games as well. Carolina has to deal with the thrashing handed out by Tampa Bay in Week 6, the 17-point loss to Atlanta in Week 12, and the fact that they only beat Detroit by 9-points. Arizona, of course, got "blowed out" by the Jets, the Vikings, and the Patriots. The time for inconsistent play is gone, it's the playoffs.

Final Score Prediction:
Carolina wins, 31-23.

NFL Monday Wrap-Up

Is it fair to "wrap-up" the NFL week before Monday night's game? Yes.

We all try our best to supply a top-notch Fourcast; however, I feel the juice of a successful Sunday running through my veins (J-E-T-S) and think it's time our loyal reader(s) get to enjoy Monday analysis outside of Peter "Stiller" King and whomever else wants to rant today.

While I could generate talk of the week galore, instead I want to focus on the "awards chase", which changes weekly (of course).

Awards Index: Monday of Week 12

MVP
1) Kurt Warner
-The 300+ yards would've looked better with a W, more than 1 TD, less than 2 turnovers, and countless other reasons. Nevertheless, the Cardinals remain 7-4 and primed for a NFC West title and good shot at a bye (the NFC South will beat each other up). What was truly telling - even with the G-Men absent Jacobs & Plax - was the Cardinals expecting to win yesterday. Guess who changed that philosophy??? Warner (and Whisenhunt).
2) Peyton Manning
-Don't look now but the Colts are becoming the favorite in the AFC playoff picture. If they get in. To think, David Thomas might end up playing a huge role in a tie-breaker between Colts/Pats. The more likely scenario has the Ravens falling off and the Colts/Pats being lethal 5 and 6 seeds. Yikes.
3) Eli Manning
-Jacobs and the RBs get all the acclaim; however, it's obvious Eli is a changed QB. Despite some struggles at times, he is a poised passer who can win games. The Giants are 10-1 and the consensus best team in the league. It's because of their QB they are 10-1. Thus, the #3 slot.
4) Michael Turner
-Matt Ryan's story is getting more pub; yet, Turner changed Atlanta. A few frowned at how much of an impact he could have, until he finally won me over with a 4 TD day. He's 3rd in the NFL in rushing and is a fantasy force to boot. Turner has Atlanta in prime contention for a playoff spot. Nobody saw that. NOBODY.
5) Brett Favre
-Jets fan, right? Of course. Check the atmosphere in New York around Favre and the team. He breeds confidence and winning. The Jets are 8-3. After the 1-2 start and that loss at Oakland, I questioned the move. Now, I realize why Green Bay fans love the guy so much. He's an egotistical prick who wanted everything handed to him. Now, he's winning with a team that has a lot more talent - and spent their money oh so well this off-season - and is becoming dangerous.

Offensive Player of the Year
1) Clinton Portis
-On a gimpy knee he carried the Skins to victory in Seattle. Then Ladell Betts ruined it. Why Jim Zorn had to back up Betts the way he did is beyond me.
2) Adrian Peterson
-Durability is still an issue...or is it? A-Pete is likely to take home a rushing crown, but can he get his team into the playoffs out of a crowded NFC North?
3) Kurt Warner
-As talented as Fitz/Boldin/Breaston are, do you honestly think Matt Leinart would have them at numbers anywhere close to they are now? Seriously?
4) Brandon Jacobs
-Missed a week; however, his rushing prowess, goalline abilities, and the steamrolling attitude has been a godsend for the Giants. He's also made Derrick Ward and Bradshaw better because their contrasting styles are a nightmare after Jacobs bulldozes you.

Defensive Player of the Year
1) Kris Jenkins
-Slips past Alby due to shutting down he gameplan for the Titans. Guess how many rushing attempts Len Dale had? ONE. That isn't because the Titans planned on passing. (Not with Revis, Rhodes, & Elam playing so well) Instead, the Titans knew Jenkins would swallow up the inside rush attack and CJ had to be deployed outside the tackles. Didn't work either way. Jenkins or Favre is a great "better off-season trade" debate.
2) Albert Haynesworth
-One week doesn't take away from an incredible campaign. He is getting better. Although, I don't like the excuses of him being dinged up in the second half. He was barely a factor in the first. Faneca has breathed life back into Mangold. It's ironic Mangold and Mawae were on the same field yesterday, at least for me.
3) Charles Woodson
-He might intercept 12 passes...tonight. Drew Brees is overrated as an offensive force. So what if he throws for a lot of yards. His team constantly underachieves and it isn't 100% the defense. The offense makes plenty of mistakes, including Brees. As Pay told me, his stats are biggest in his losses. I smell a pick-six for good old AllProCW2 (plug!).
4) Julius Peppers
-His return to dominance might've been rushed. He's been a force this year, yet I want to see it in a big game. A really big game. He'll get his shot soon enough.

Offensive Rookie of the Year
1) Matt Ryan
-If you thought the Falcons would be 7-4 and that Ryan would have 7 games without an INT, go to Vegas and start placing multiple bets.
2) Joe Flacco
-If you thought Joe Flacco would be 7-4 as a rookie starting QB, you'd have to think the Ravens defense from 2000 was cloned in 2K8.
3) Matt Forte
-Amazing he's an obvious third-selection. The guy is a force of nature as of late. By the way, this dude can catch the ball too. If anything, he would've been a great third down back by this point for any other team who might've drafted him.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
1) Jerod Mayo
-Enough said. Oh wait, he's a BEAST. (Damn Patsies)

I'll let you all worry about Comeback and Executive of the Year and all the rest.

Although I gotta give more Jet love to our former QB Chad Pennington.
Could he really win Comeback Player of the Year two years in a row?
Stranger things have happened...

See you next Monday!!!