InClement Weather: Salary Crunch

Props to Armin on the fantastic work on the SWOT analysis. Be sure to check that out ASAP. His latest was the AFC North. Tweet tweet.

I'll poke my head in, if only for a moment, to talk NFL salaries. Why? Eli Manning's mega-deal (6 years at a reported $97-million, with $35-million guaranteed) has a lot of people talking.
Credit: NFLGoddess.com

No, I am not here to analyze that contract. Feel free to check that out elsewhere.

What I am here to discuss is a few interesting notes related to team salaries in 2008 and individual salaries in 2009.

Which team had the highest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) They had the #1 overall pick in 1997.
B) They won a total of 5 games last season.
C) They beat Brett Favre last season.

Which team had the lowest total payroll in 2008? I'll give you three clues:
A) Their star RB likes to spit alcohol on women.
B) They're in the same division as the team listed above (highest payroll).
C) They are no longer in last place, thanks in large part to a newly acquired quarterback.

As for the rest of 2008, there were a few "team-related" surprises:
A) New England was third...to last. Wow.
B) Washington was in the middle of the pack. Wow.
C) Cleveland and New Orleans went #4 and #5 overall.
D) Despite Peyton Manning's insane contract, Indianapolis was in the bottom four.

As for the players, in 2008, the contracts were (of course) MASSIVE for the elite stars.

This man's smiling face was the NFL's highest paid defender last season. Not this year, thanks in large part to the tricky stipulations of NFL contracts.
Credit: PocatelloShops.com

Now it's important to note four things when viewing NFL player salaries, especially on a year by year basis:
1) No contract is guaranteed for every dollar on the penny. Eli signed for $97-million, but was guaranteed $35-million. I won't say only. You don't say only when $35-million is being discussed.
1) Base salary is often tiny compared to how much they make.
2) Signing bonuses often vault players you'd never expect in certain years. A 5-year/$50-million deal will almost never pay a guy $10-million exactly each season. Not a chance.
3) Cap value can be massaged quite a bit, especially with loaded contracts (whether front or back-loaded)
--> This means that a player might see 75% of his contract in a 2-3 year span, even if it's a 6 or 7-year deal. You'll see what I mean below.

For example, this guy's contract, which earned him over $27-million last season, broke down as such:
Base Salary = $ 2.5 million
Signing Bonus = $25.2 million
Other Bonus = $1,920
Cap Value = $7.9 million

That quarterback happened to win THIS.

But let's compare, for comparison's sake, him to the second highest paid quarterback, who made nearly $17-million last season, with his contract broken down as such:
Base Salary = $370,000
Signing Bonus = $0
Other Bonus = $16.5 million
Cap Value = $4.8 million

That quarterback had a QB rating of 77.2 in his second season as a quarterback, his first as the established full-time starter. Question is: will he have a third?

As for 2009, well that's not official just yet. Why? A few rookies have held out, a quarterback or two is still on the market (*cough* Favre), and the lingering CBA-crisis of 2010 has affected a few potential contract extensions (*cough* Leon Washington).

Nevertheless, Eli vaulted into the 3rd slot in 2009. Who is he behind?

Player #1: Carolina is paying this man more than $1-million a game. A GAME!!! The 1-year franchise tender made him the highest paid defensive player, if only for 1-year, E-V-E-R.

Player #2: Extending for 6-years (some semantics have it at 9-years total) at potentially $118.75-million is nothing to balk at. Especially when you've never won a playoff game. Check that. Never finished the one playoff game you were in. Okay, maybe that wasn't his fault. Nevertheless, the Bungles are paying A LOT of money for a quarterback for a perennial loser.

Right behind Eli? One name you might not know, but SHOULD and one contract you definitely know, but COULD'VE been even richer.

Leave it to the Raiders to hand out an "unprecedented contract". Fortunately, for once, the money was extremely well spent on the top cornerback in the league, Nnamdi Asomugha. Even better for the talented corner, he signed for only 3 years in Oakland...at a whopping $45.3 million. Of course, this is also the same team who gave their offensive MVP - punter Shane Lechler - a 4 year deal worth an insane $16-million. Yes, for a PUNTER!!!

Nobody was surprised when the Skins broke the bank for Haynesworth. Nobody.
Credit: Swampland.com

Albert Haynesworth, who rumors say turned down an even richer deal from Tampa Bay, broke the free agent bank biggest this offseason with a 7-year, $100-million dollar deal. That's an average of $14-million (plus) a year for the defensive tackle. Not too shabby and not too surprising considering Snyder and Cerato were involved.

If you want some outside perspective, here you go...in terms of total value:
1) A-Rod netted 10 years at $275-million from the Yanks, surpassing his previous record for a sport's contract.
2) The Yankees have handed out four of the five richest contracts ever (A-Rod, Jeter, Teixeira, and Sabathia). Surprise surprise, right?
3) Mike Vick used to have a contaract, at the time the richest in NFL history, for 10 years and $130-million. Now that's a distant memory, of course.
4) Kobe Bryant is the NBA's highest-paid player ever, pre Summer of 2010 Free Agent class though.
5) Bary Zito, Vernon Wells, and Rashard Lewis both have contracts at $126-million. Which surprises you most???

There's plenty to talk about with contracts - especially when guaranteed money is involved or not - and I plan on returning to the issue.

Of course on my teacher's salary, I'll need a good cry or two first. Tweet tweet.

THE PER: July 23, 2009

After a long hiatus, I am returning to the blogosphere with a long overdue edition of THE PER, otherwise known to the cool kids as "Point - Evidence - Relevance".

It's not an original idea, but it's pragmatic. I'll offer a point, provide the evidence and say why it matters. In some cases, there's less evidence out there, and in others, one may not initially grasp the relevance.

Instead of a normal case where I discuss one issue, I'll be discussing a few across many sports.

#1 Who cares if LeBron smoked weed in high school? You may think, "here's another LeBron apologist," but you're dead wrong. What I care about is that the guy who cannot take a loss like a man and congratulate the team that soundly defeated his team in a 7-game series. What I care about is that the guy gets away with more traveling no-calls than any other player in NBA history. What I care about is that the guy straight up lost confidence in his teammates and tried to overcompensate as a result. What I care about is that the guy and his representation concealed a potentially embarrassing posterization by a college player. So, who cares if LeBron smoked weed in high school? I'm more concerned about his cowardice and his escapability from accountability.

#2 ESPN should have reported the accusation about Ben Roethlisberger well before today. Why they did not report the allegations when everyone else seemed to is beyond me. It feeds into the growing belief that ESPN does not report stories unless they are able to take credit for it. From a customer service perspective, that's an embarrassment. My thoughts? I don't trust Ben Roethlisberger, or his mole. But seriously, it has to be frustrating to work for ESPN, have knowledge of the story, and not be able to report for whatever reason.

#3 If he doesn't play in the NFL this year ... or ever again, Brett Favre has a future on Broadway. His prior addiction to painkillers makes him an even better fit. This could be one of the more seamless transitions in history. Now that John Madden is retired, the two can finally stage their love story. This will require as much as acting as a movie in which Nicholas Cage is playing Elvis or a guy who steals cars.

#4 A very scant number of our readers care about European football, but Manchester City's (yes, City) strike force is borderline intoxicating. Robinho, Tevez, Adebayor, Santa Cruz, Bellamy ... and that's excluding Bojinov, Mwaruwari and Caicedo. All are top choice strikers for their international squads. I will laugh if and when they do not crack the top 4.

#5 Who cares if some SEC coach did not vote Tim Tebow as the top pre-season QB in the conference? Tebow will torch your team and make you pray with him after the game. Forget his awkward throwing motion, the fact that he is a lefty, and his love of Jesus. Tebow is a winner. When the chips were down last year, he was accountable and he amassed the team's stack en route to a national championship in which Florida took down all comers (or, as many as possible given the flawed postseason system). I hated typing that, but it's true.

#6 Who doesn't love the baseball trade deadline? That's all. Many eyes will be on the St. Louis - Philadelphia series. If the Cardinals play teeball against the Phillies' starting pitchers, you had better believe that they will cave and include Kyle Drabek in a package for Roy Hallday. Meanwhile, if St. Louis continues to sputter (let's hope for this because I am obligated to hate them ... and the World Series as a Cubs fan), they will up the chase for Matt Holliday and obtain some veteran arms.

InClement Weather: Dog Days of Summer

Sports is coasting right now on fumes. Frankly, many of us are bored to tears with it altogether.

College football, the NFL, MLB playoffs, and final majors for tennis and golf still linger...but they are all still way too far out there. At least the Premier League's 2009-2010 season is upon us...even if it's Newcastle-less (sigh).

While I'd love to deliver something inciteful, it isn't happening in this climate.
Baseball banter can be found all over and anything revolutionary won't be offered up by someone who hardly ever embarks outside the AL East (go Yanks!).

Nevertheless, here are 4 stories on my mind. How about you?

1) The Erin Andrew story is not as joyous as I expected one with her naked could be.

This is a much as Erin Andrews planned on exposing to America.
Which was f-i-n-e for me.
Credit: Deadspin.com

Erin Andrews is the hottest thing in sports today. If you disagree, I want visual evidence. It doesn't hurt she's competent, unafraid to call out players, and doesn't hide behind her beauty (or run away from it). However, the story of a tape being released - in which she was allegedly videotaped naked in her hotel room unbeknowingst to her - is deeply depressing. What it means for female sportscasters, Andrews herself, and the privacy we don't have in this Twitter/blog/YouTube/MySpace world is more apparent than ever.

Words well spoken from Yahoo's Maggie Hendricks are HERE.
Ditto for David Hinckley at the New York Daily News HERE.

I feel for Andrews and her family right now. There's a major difference between posing for a magazine, an SI Swimsuit shoot, and this. Unfortunately, our society continues its foray into the infinite darkness...

2) NBA Free Agency Hot Stove = Overkill

Does Odom really elevate the Heat any higher than 5th in the East (where they were last season)? You tell me.
Credit: BestSportsPhotos.com

Shoot me now. Seriously. The waters are so silent in sports right now that multiple sites are grading performances in the NBA Summer Leagues. ROAR! Ever since Gordon and Villenueva signed in MoTown, the NBA Free Agent Summer of 2009 (just wait for 2010) won't calm down...or at least the news media won't let it. While most of the big names have landed, there's still plenty of talk to be had about the mediocre remains. Do you really care where Ike Diogu lands? DO YOU!?!? Perhaps the biggest story remaining is that of Lamar Odom. Don't get me wrong, he plays a potentially pivotal role in the landscape of the NBA (especially for the champion Lakers); yet, I don't exactly believe this is front page or lead-story news. Or maybe I just don't want it to be. Especially when it's, "Miami interested in Odom". I just wish a decision would be made and we could move on from the former Rhode Island Ram. Maybe that offer sheet the Cavs gave to Jamario Moon will hold us over until training camp opens in the NFL. BOO YA! (Sigh)

3) Is ESPN afraid?
Note: PLEASE don't put anything "extra" into my words either. The claim is just a claim and thedetails are far too hazy for me to even try and speculate.

Why ESPN isn't reporting the allegations, alleged of course, against Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is beyond me. It may turn out to be untrue. It may be dismissed by the time I post this article. Nevertheless, is it not relevant news?

Posted by Mike Florio, so buyer beware...
A media source tells us that, late last night, ESPN issued a "do not report" memo to all of its outlets and reporters. The directive came without explanation. "Even some of the reporters are wondering why," the source said, "but haven't been told." This time around, ESPN can't claim that the report of a civil suit alleging sexual assault isn't true. Clearly, it is; Roethlisberger has hired attorney David Cornwell, who has denied the allegations in a statement initially sent to us, and then sent to other media outlets. And we've seen, and reported on, the contents of the complaint.

What is true and what isn't may take some time. Seems a little like "All the President's Men" with the controversy about reporting the controversy though.

4) Jason Campbell's status

The future of these two men are totally dependent on each other.
Credit: CNNSI.com

I bet Washington Redskins QB Jason Campbell doesn't put much stock into all the rumors - for better or worse - surrounding his status with the team. All I know is this: his contract is up after the end of this season and the team may have already made their decision by not offering him a new contract (when you think the price might be far cheaper).

People are on different sides of the Campbell argument and I can see why. He has an impressive physical skill set and the right attitude. Contrastingly, he doesn't have every throw in the book other QBs seem to possess and often seems to hesitate a little too much in the pocket, often checking down too regularly.

Personally, I think he's an above average quarterback, but nowhere near the superstar QB the city demands. He might lead a team to the playoffs; however, he isn't a top 10 NFL talent. I felt going after Cutler was wise and avoiding Favre was wiser. Don't even get me started on the potential Vick-storylines in the nation's capital.

Do I think Campbell win end up in DC after this season? No. While looking at the schedule I see another strong start for the Skins only to be undone in the closing campaign due to durability of Portis/the wide receiving corps "talent"/overall talent of the NFC East/Campbell's limitations in Zorn's system. Time will tell though, as always.


That's all I got...for now. Feel free to comment. In fact, I demand it!!!

5 NFL Questions: Super Bowl Sunday

Okay, so it's gonna be more like "15 Questions".
What we need from YOU ALL is some answers, before the opening kickoff (if you dare).

***Poll Results***
"Who Will Win the Super Bowl"
Steelers edge the Cardinals 145 votes to 126 (46% to 40%).
For you political junkies, that means there wasn't a plurality.
Why? Because 41 votes came in from people who "Didn't Care".
How many of those were Pay, though?

Next poll is up: Super Bowl MVP.
You have the guys to call it now?
Or before its awarded?

Feel free to check out the following too:
Previews and Pre-Game Analysis
Final Score and MVP Predictions/Projections
Madden Simulation [Super Records SHATTERED!!!]

Checking the "tale of the tape" the average PHSports projection comes out to 27-21 Pittsburgh.
Think you can do better??? Comment and let the record stand!!!
Credit: SportsWarehouse.com

5 "Super" Super Bowl Questions:
1) What are the respective health and psychological statuses of Cardinal WR Anquan Boldin and Steeler WR Hines Ward?
2) Which QB is more pivotal towards their team winning Super Bowl XLIII (and their second Super Bowl, respectively): Warner or Roethlisberger?
3) I hate to be "that guy"; nevertheless, will we see any of Matt Leinart or Byron Leftwich in this game?
4) Will Edgerrin James or Tim Hightower or even JJ Arrington receive the majority of touches out of the Arizona backfield?
5) Since too many fans (myself included) blame the refs for every loss: which team is getting hosed more often tonight?

5 Arizona Questions:
1) How will Neil Rackers and Ben Graham play in the biggest moments of their respective kicking lives?
2) Can Karlos Dansby put on the top performance - for either team - at the linebacker position?
3) How will Bertrand Berry and Darnell Dockett apply pressure and bring down Big Ben most effectively?
4) Will the tight ends for Arizona be able to do anything of value in the receiving game?
5) Will Kurt Warner protect the ball or become statue-esque?

5 Pittsburgh Questions:
1) Is Ike Taylor a mediocre cornerback or perhaps one of the NFL's most unknown emerging talents?
2) Which of the linebackers - specifically Harrison and Woodley - gives Warner the most anxiety?
3) Will Heath Miller be a redzone target the Cardinals neglect to locate?
4) What's your call for another big play from Santonio Holmes on offense and/or special teams?
5) Will Casey Hampton be able to plug the middle and stiffle the Arizona rush attack from early on?

Man I love this catch. But seriously, who goes from unknown to known in a matter of 60 seconds after today's game? Nate Washington? Jeremy Urban? I know who it won't be...Limas Sweed.
Credit: Google Images

We've seen the previews, the predictions, a Madden simulation, and now 15 questions.
All we have left to do now is enjoy the game.

Check in for quarter-by-quarter analysis and some live streaming.

See you after kickoff!!!

PHSports Simulation Series: Super Bowl XLIII [Madden-Style]

Check out previews and predictions before enjoy the Madden Simulation.
Quarter-by-quarter streaming updates and instant analysis (from the entire staff) will begin tomorrow at 6pm. See you then!!!

It worked so well last year…it’s back!!!

It’s not about who’s the BIGGEST.
It’s not about who’s the STRONGEST.
It’s about something MORE.
It’s about WHO WANTS IT MORE!

In a tradition that has gone as far back as…last year…we here at PHSports are ready to do away with computer and metric-based simulations and instead focus on something random, yet incredible entertaining.

Super Bowl XLIII…one day early.
How does it happen? The power of technology!

Enter an XBOX360, the Pittsburgh Steelers versus the Arizona Cardinals, a 26-inch flat-screen television and Microsoft’s willingness to update rosters on a seemingly weekly basis.

The difficulty was boosted to All-Madden, attributes were reset to system levels, ditto for rules/preferences/options. We tried to silence Cris Collinsworth as much as we could, but we had no hope.

Even an MVP was named.

Remember Jet fans. Blame the "Madden-curse" for this year's downfall. Duh.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Let’s check the highlights…

1st Quarter

Pittsburgh called the toss (heads) and lost. Cardinals receive and the game is underway. Arizona opened running the ball unsuccessfully with Edgerrin James (2 carries for -3 yards) and a short hitch to Edge from Warner that resulted in only 5 yards and a 3 and out. After an average punt and good field position – on their own 44 – Pittsburgh followed with a 3 and out as Santonio Holmes dropped a first down in Arizona territory. The game’s first 1st down came on a 3rd and 3 in which Warner saw the blitz coming and hit Fitzgerald on a 13-yard hitch route. 3 runs from Edge ensued after a key 3rd down to Fitz again and the Cardinals were inside the Steeler 20. Roughing the passer on James Harrison led to a 3 yard TD plunge by Edgerrin James and a 7-0 Arizona lead with 4:43 to play in the 1st quarter. Edge looks very good thus far.

Pittsburgh again 3 and out. Great pressure from Dockett up the middle on 3rd and 6. Hines Ward has not been a factor, being targeted 0 times. After a quick 1st down, a steady diet of Edge leads to 3rd and 15 and a big sack by LaMarr Woodley for a 9-yard loss. Cardinals punt from their own 42. Big Ben fumbles the snap on 2nd and 10 (0-2 with a 39.2 QB rating and the aforementioned fumble) and its recovered on the Pittsburgh 25 by Karlos Dansby. Cardinals in business. Shocking news from the sideline. Kurt Warner’s shoulder is bruised and he is probable (2 quarters) to return. Enter Matt Leinart and on 1st down a second sack for Woodley on an all-out blitz. 35-yard FG by Rackers is GOOD; fortunately, Leinart found Fitz on second down for a much-needed 10 yard completion. 2:49 left in the first.

Steelers go three and out again. Roethlisberger’s first completion to Miller for only 5 yards on 1st down. Pittsburgh’s offense is strug-a-ling. Leinart sacked by Aaron Smith on 3rd and long – too much JJ Arrington this drive – on his own 11. Leinart without a first down in two drives. Steelers have a costly false start penalty and – you guessed it – go 3 and out. Ben has plenty of time, but his receivers aren’t open. His checkdowns aren’t looking well. Ball is punted down inside the 10 yard-line. No Edge or Hightower again, surprising to see so much Arrington. Cardinals 3 and out, punt from their own 11 yard line. Holmes makes the fair catch at mid field. Steelers get their first 1st down on a 12 yard completion on 3rd and 2 from Big Ben to TE Heath Miller. Francisco on a safety blitz gets Big Ben down, no attempt for a 50-yard FG by Jeff Reed. Cardinals begin the 2nd quarter at their own 6 yard line. 10-0 Arizona after 1.

After a great first quarter, Fitzgerald would become a forgotten man.
Credit: EASports

2nd Quarter

4 rushes in 6 plays for Edge for a total of 21 yards. Fitzgerald already has 6 catches for 75 yards. Bad drop by Fitz though inside the Steeler 20 on 3rd and 6 from the 32. No attempted 49-yard FG for Rackers. Punt is a touchback, barely. Great play by Holmes to let it bounce. And just like that, we have a game. 80-yard TD from Roethlisberger to Santonio “Playoffs 2009” Holmes. Rod Hood was beat on a double-move without a safety over the top. Rolle blitzed and Parker picked him up beautifully. 10-7 Arizona leads.

Keisel and Hampton team up for a big sack on 2nd down. Let it be known Edgerrin James has 18 rushes for 66 yards and a TD already. Leinart is 6 of 8 but has been sacked in critical spots. Big Ben with a key 3rd down conversion on a 6-yard rush, shaking of DRC on another Cardinal blitz. Holmes drops a touchdown – after beating Hood again – that forces another Steeler punt in Arizona territory. Cardinals dodge a big bullet with 4:27 left in the 1st half. Leinart sacked again, Woodley’s 3rd on the day, on 3rd down. He isn’t reading blitzes on the outside well at all. Casey Hampton is giving the Arizona interior line fits. Hines Ward with his first two catches – for a total of 28 yards – Big Ben goes 5 for 5 on the drive, including an 11-yard TD toss to Heath Miller on 3rd and 9 on the Arizona 11. Miller beats Dansby to the corner on a beautiful tight end waggle. Pittsburgh leads 14-10. Will Kurt Warner be ready after halftime to return?

Leinart hits his tight ends (Pope for 16 yards on 3rd down & Patrick for 13 yards on 3rd and 7) for big completions downfield. The blitz is being picked up much better with Edge in the backfield on 3rd down. Hightower without a carry thus far. Another Blitzburgh sack, this time Keisel by himself, on 3rd down. Cardinals punt as the 2-minute warning approaches. Pittsburgh doesn’t call a timeout to save 12 seconds. Steelers start on their own 3, but punt by the time they reach their 21. Leinart sacked AGAIN – that’s 7 first-half sacks. 0 for James Harrison though. Odd fake punt call by the Cardinals from the Pittsburgh 41 on 4th down. Ryan Clark with an INT at the 30. Steeler ball. Big Ben is on fire. 4 for 4 on the drive for 59 yards. Holmes is wide open 2 out of every 3 plays. Hines Ward catches his 2nd Super Bowl TD of his career (1st of the night) with 6 seconds left on a 3 yard WR screen from Big Ben. 3 2nd quarter TDs for the Steelers. 21-10 Pittsburgh leads. Halftime.

Remember this run from "Fast" Willie? Get ready for plenty more this second half.
Credit: EASports

3rd Quarter

Steelers fair catch a great kickoff. After a quick first-down by “Fast” Willie, Big Ben is sacked on consecutive downs by Bertrand Berry. Steelers punt. Kurt Warner returns, yet the Cardinals stall out near midfield as Warner is sacked by Polamalu on 3rd down. Anquan Boldin is not starting the second half due to leg cramps. 1 catch all game. Steeler football returns as the rush game comes alive. A methodical drive ensues with manageable 2nd and 3rd downs. Parker plunges over the top for 1 yard for a fourth-consecutive Steelers TD. 28-10. Warner and Wisenhunt look rattled on the sideline. Leinart doesn’t. Wouldn’t you know it, but another Arizona 3 and out. This game is rapidly ending already. This game appears over with another dominant Pittsburgh drive. Willie Parker has been unstoppable this 3rd quarter. He may only have 88 rushing yards, but 79 of them are in this quarter alone. Funny enough, Mewelde Moore tacks on a short TD dive from the goalline to give the Steelers yet another 3rd quarter touchdown. Pittsburgh is now winning 35-10.

Warner’s first throw of the next drive is intercepted by James Farrior down to the Arizona 11. Next play: Roethlisberger’s 4th TD toss and second to Hines Ward. Pittsburgh is beating down the Cardinals in a 3rd quarter that is in the record books now. The quarter ends and the Cardinals have nothing left to play for but pride. 42-10.

You won't be seeing this. The guy played ZERO snaps in the second half.
Credit: Photobucket

4th Quarter

Kurt Warner hits Fitzgerald for a nice 21-yard pass play downfield. However, next pass ends up in Polamalu’s hands at the goalline. After a bad pass interference call on Adrian Wilson, Willie Parker goes 59-yards for his second touchdown. The guy loves dynamic Super Bowl rushes over 50 yards, right? 49-10 Steelers. Is the scoring record of 55 in danger? YES.

Arizona gains 2 meaningless first downs and Warner is picked AGAIN, this time by Ike Taylor. A lazy drive ensues, with Fast Willie still burning it up, before it stalls inside the 5. Jeff Reed, who must be dog tired, kicked a 19-yard FG. 52 unanswered points has it 52-10. No Boldin still. Each team trades 3 and outs. An Arizona QB is sacked for the 10th time. Wow. Jeff Reed ties the Super Bowl record of 55 points with a 48-yard FG. The Steelers might as well give Tomlin the Gatorrade bath now with 4:27 remaining.

Byron Leftwich enters after Warner is unsuccessful on 4th and 2 from the Pittsburgh 41. Fitzgerald is visibly frustrated (obviously!). New scoring mark set at 58. Pittsburgh plays for blood as it keeps Willie Parker in – alongside Doug E Fresh (Leftwich) after sacking Warner on his own 32. Reed’s 28 yarder with 1:22 left is the last score of the game (I pray). Edge pads his stats with 5 useless rushes for 33 yards. Tick tock. Bryant McFadden intercepts Warner who may lose the Hall of Fame bid after this second half. Remember it was once 10-0 Arizona. Leftwich downs it and Super Bowl XLIII is O-V-A. 58-10. Yes, you read that right. Thankfully, this abomination is over for me too.

Tomlin gets the bath as Pittsburgh annihilates Arizona. Sorry Cinderella, go home. Pittsburgh with 714 yards of total offense and 0 turnovers (compared to Arizona’s 5). Pittsburgh was 7 for 7 in the redzone with 5 TDs and 2 FGs. Great day for Jeff Reed, too.

Doug E Fresh took a few snaps after it was 55-10. Now there's a moment.
Seriously, other people besides myself and SVP see it, right?
Credit: Z.About.com

Pittsburgh earns it’s 6th Super Bowl ring in record fashion.
Here are some more specifics…

Final Score: Pittsburgh wins 58-10
MVP: Ben Roethlisberger [30-39, 409 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs]

Scoring Summary

1st Quarter

Cardinals: Edgerrin James 3 yard rush for TOUCHDOWN.
[14 plays, 79 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- 15-yard personal foul on James Harrison setting up Arizona 1st and goal on the 6.
Arizona leads 7-0.

Cardinals: Neil Rackers 35-yard FIELD GOAL.
[3 plays, 4 yards]
Key Play -- Ben Roethlisberger fumbles the snap on his own 25, recovered by Dansby.
Arizona leads 10-0.

2nd Quarter

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger 80-yard pass to Santonio Holmes for TOUCHDOWN.
[1 play, 80 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- Holmes not fait catching a punt at the 8, allowing it to bounce for a touchback.]
Arizona leads 10-7.

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger 11-yard pass to Heath Miller for TOUCHDOWN.
[8 plays, 60 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- Hines Ward’s first two catches softened up sideline routes later in the drive.
Pittsburgh leads 14-10.

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger 3-yard pass to Hines Ward for TOUCHDOWN.
[7 plays, 70 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- Big Ben avoids a mega-blitz and goes 9 yards to Holmes on the sideline on a key 3rd and long.
Pittsburgh leads 21-10.

3rd Quarter

Pittsburgh: Willie Parker 1-yard rush for TOUCHDOWN.
[13 plays, 89 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- Arizona commits a stupid 5-yard offsides penalty on a 3rd and 3.
Pittsburgh leads 28-10.

Pittsburgh: Mewelde Moore 3-yard rush for TOUCHDOWN.
[11 plays, 75 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- Anytime Willie Parker touched the ball, he gained at least 7 yards.
Pittsburgh leads 35-10.

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger 11-yard pass to Hines Ward for TOUCHDOWN.
[1 play, 11 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- Farrior’s interception of Warner followed by a stiff arm to Warner on the return.
Pittsburgh leads 42-10.

4th Quarter

Pittsburgh: Willie Parker rush for 59-yard TOUCHDOWN.
[2 plays, 80 yards, XP Good]
Key Play -- Willie Parker shook off Dockett for a potential 5-yard loss and then was untouched.
Pittsburgh leads 49-10.

Pittsburgh: Jeff Reed 19-yard FIELD GOAL is good.

Pittsburgh leads 52-10.

Pittsburgh: Jeff Reed 48-yard FIELD GOAL is good.
[5 plays, 39 yards]
Pittsburgh leads 55-10.

Pittsburgh: Jeff Reed 28-yard FIELD GOAL is good.
[6 plays, 32 yards]
Pittsburgh leads 58-10.

Key Statistics

Arizona Cardinals
Kurt Warner: 17-33, 148 yards, o TDs, 4 INTs
Matt Leinart: 11-16, 120 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Edgerrin James: 34 rushes, 140 yds, 1 TD
Tim Hightower: 0 rushes, 0 receptions
Jeremy Urban: 7 catches, 84 yards
Larry Fitzgerald: 9 catches, 81 yards, 2 drops
Anquan Boldin: 1 catch, 18 yards
Gerald Hayes: 19 tackles, 1 sack
Karlos Dansby: 9 tackles, 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery
Bertrand Berry: 4 tackles, 3 sacks
Adrian Wilson: 2 tackles, 1 sack, 3 penalties
Rod Hood: 1 tackle (gave up 3 TD passes in coverage)

Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger: 30-39, 409 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
Willie Parker: 31 rushes, 198 yards, 2 TDs
Mewelde Moore: 15 attempts, 79 yards, 1 TD
Santonio Holmes: 9 receptions, 183 yards, TD
Hines Ward: 7 catches, 96 yards, 2 TDs
Heath Miller: 4 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD
Casey Hampton: 11 tackles, 3 sacks
LaMarr Woodley: 5 tackles, 3 sacks
Brett Keisel: 7 tackles, 2 sacks
Ryan Clark: 6 tackles, 1 INT
Troy Polamalu: 5 tackles, 1 INT
Ike Taylor: 3 tackles, 1 INT

PHSports Play of the Game: Santonio Holmes' 80-yard touchdown pass was the moment in which the game officially slipped away from Arizona. Up 10 with the Steelers on their own 20, Holmes burned Hood down the sideline and ran with open field for 65 yards. It might've been 10-7, but Pittsburgh clearly had seized control.

Art Monk Award: Casey Hampton, DT [Pittsburgh]
-Despite not as much barking as Foote and Farrior, Hampton led the Steeler D with 11 tackles and 3 sacks. He was unstoppable from start to finish. Unreal performance from the DT.

Defining Moment: Kurt Warner’s injury with the Cardinals leading 10-0 allowed the Steeler D time to relax (with Leinart in) and their offense enough time to start the motors running. Remember that it was 10-0 after the 1st quarter in Arizona’s favor, 58-0 the final 3 for Pittsburgh.

In case this worried you about tomorrow. Check this out for a smile!
God bless you, YouTube.



I hope you enjoyed it, it was horrific to watch. But kinda fine to write.

Until next Super Bowl…

Super Bowl XLIII: Final Thoughts and Predictions from the PHSports Football Experts

The Steel crew are 7 point favorites ... but will any of the PHSports crew pick the Cards to peck away at victory?

Armin:

I used the perfect analogy last year. Mike Bibby and the 1997 Arizona Wildcats, playing the role of giant killers and the team of destiny, all the way to the National Championship. The Arizona Cardinals would be a better fit, if for nothing else than the fact that they play in the same state as the Wildcats. While this year is not as big of a giant killing situation, as the Patriots went into the game 18-0, the signs still point to Pittsburgh winning this game. Last year, I should have followed my gut and predicted a Giants win. This year, I'm not going against my gut (except maybe going on a diet). I pick the Cards (which might be bad news for the Cards). My home-away-from-home team will win the championship and bring credibility to the franchise. Most importantly, they will do it as partial payback to the legacy of Pat Tillman. Somewhere he will be smiling down on the Cards as they celebrate as World Champs.

Cardinals 31

Steelers 27

MVP: Kurt Warner, QB

Clement:

I’d be lying if I said I was a supporter of either of these two teams. While I used to be quite anti-Pittsburgh, I respect Mike Tomlin (aka Omar Epps), root for Big Ben when he's crazy in the pocket, and like guys like Farrior/"Fast" Willie/Ike Taylor. Meanwhile, Arizona has always been a bit of a joke; nevertheless, I’ve enjoyed their ride through the playoffs this season. Watching Fitzgerald is pure fun and I hope Boldin has a big play or two in him on Sunday evening. I’ll be rooting for Arizona, but suspect the Pittsburgh (or Blitzburgh) defense will be a little too much for Warner, Fitz, and Edge. A large part of me wants to see Edge with a ring in the desert; especially with all the good he has done for rookie Tim Hightower. After last year’s epic affair, what we all should be rooting for (those of us not with specific rooting interests, of course) is a fun, competitive game. It won’t happen. Polamalu will make his mark (and earn an MVP award, even as a safety) and Hines Ward will be game enough to catch his second Super Bowl TD (this time from Big Ben). I just don't think Arizona will be able to convert on 3rd and less than 5 as often as they need to. Steelers win 21-10, in a game odd reminiscent of the 2006 Super Bowl. Or is it eerily reminiscent…

Steelers 21
Cardinals 14
MVP: Troy Polamalu, S

Paymon:

I contemplated completely boycotting this farce of a Super Bowl, as my Eagles were on the business end of two horrendous calls in the final minutes. The first was a block in the back by Reggie Wells on Darren Howard at the 10-yard line (I have DVR'd the play and it's obvious), which opened the pathway for rookie running back Tim Hightower to fight his way to paydirt. The second was a blatant pass interference in which Rod Hood (on an island, no less) pushed off against Kevin Curtis. To many, this is ancient history. To the vigilant, it is one more instance of officials deciding games. Seriously, who cares about the game other than Steelers fans? Pittsburgh wins it because they are the tougher team on both lines and Arizona will actually get flagged for holds and blocks in the back, because referees always call it tight during the Super Bowl. Don't worry, Big Ben will turn the ball over once or twice to keep it mildly exciting.

Steelers 28
Cardinals 16
MVP: Ben Roethslisberger, QB

Sum:

There have been three constants in the NFL Playoffs and their coverage in PHSports. 1) I have analyzed the Arizona Cardinals game each week. 2) I have predicted the Cards to lose each week. 3) The Cards have shat on my prediction each week. (A fourth could by my mentioning of Kurt Warner + Depends each week ... but nah). Each week I have suggested that Arizona's opponent would learn from the mistakes of the team(s) in the week(s) before. That the opposing team would stay true to its running attack and would also beat the snot out of Kurt Warner with an intense pass rush. And it seems that those teams have steadily avoided my advice as if I was Dave Shula. But there's really no way that Dick LeBeau doesn't rush a QB. And there's no way that a Pittsburgh football team goes pass-happy. Right? It just wouldn't make sense ... it'd be like the Cardinals winning three straight playoff games ...

Steelers 31
Cardinals 23
MVP: Willie Parker, RB

Super Bowl XLIII Pre-Game Analysis: Pittsburgh vs. Arizona

Pittsburgh Do’s and Don’t’s - Clement:

Do your best to jam Larry Fitzgerald at the line of scrimmage. If Fitzgerald is given too much space, he's going to cause havoc in the worst ways possible. Before you know it, a trick player will be opening up – even with Polamalu's savvy – and Breaston/Boldin will be running deep sideline routes. While Fitzgerald is murder in the redzone, the crossing route allows him plenty of space to rumble. Beware.

Do your best to allow Woodley and Harrison to go 1 on 1 with the Arizona tackles. The Arizona tackles have been the weakest link on the Cardinal line. Harrison, the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year, is a sack machine and Woodley may, in fact, be the more talented overall pass rusher. Both are strong and sturdy throughout the game. Arizona will need to mix up protection schemes and their backs – especially the rookie Hightower – better be more than ready to chip. Effective runs to the outside and screens against the blitz are perfect remedies.

Do your best to get Santonio Holmes in open space. If you didn't see his punt return against the Chargers or his YAC-scamper against the Ravens, you missed out. With Ward "dinged" up and Limas Sweed being a PUNK, Holmes may be asked to make 2 or 3 big downfield catches. The best way to free him up isn't with the deep ball though, it's within the 10-15 yard range with space to run. That means Big Ben better be ready to withstand plenty of hits within the pocket.

Don't forget about Anquan Boldin. Larry Fitzgerald may be the best wideout in the NFL; however, Boldin isn't far behind. Sure he's been unhealthy and too much of a primadonna in recent weeks, but Boldin is also a redzone B-E-A-S-T and lethal on the edges. He'll play his heart out and has seen far more bad than good with this franchise. Don't forget just how deadly this duo is.

If the Steelers worry too much about Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin may give them nightmares they won't recover from.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Don't underestimate the talent in the middle of the Cardinal defense. Darnell Dockett, Karlos Dansby, and Adrian Wilson are flat out studs. While there are other playmakers on that side of the ball – see Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie – these three have to seize control of the line of scrimmage, the center of the field, and the deep ball. While Wilson's run stopping abilities aren't too shabby, his ability to lock into a quarterback is highly underrated. Each will need to help their defense for 2-3 Big Ben miscues for the Cardinals to pull off the upset.

Don't forget about "Fast" Willie Parker. The rush game is vital to the Steelers opening up their playbook and putting real pressure on the Cardinals. If Warner struggles early, the Steelers would be wise to pound the Cardinals into submission with the speedy, yet stealthy Parker. Just ask the Seahawks of 2006 how quickly Parker can hit the corner and rush to paydirt. If Parker has 20+ carries, the Steelers should win by two touchdowns.

Don't underestimate the importance of special teams. I don't want to elaborate too much. However, if you can pin the Cardinals inside the 10, you better. Free yardage is the LAST thing you want to give Warner, Fitz, Boldin and company. If Rackers struggles with his kickoffs, burn the Cardinals early and often.

Arizona Do’s and Don’t’s - Sum:

Do make use of the plethora of bulletin board material out there. You've been underdogs EVERY WEEK of this postseason, and the Super Bowl is no exception with the Steelers as 7 point favorites. Heck, even President Obama wants Pittsburgh to win. That's gotta sting ... now turn that sting into solid play on the field. If Barack won't be bipartisan on Super Sunday, you shouldn't be either.

Do keep on executing your playoff game plan. I know I've used that one before, but it's working. The shift away from your pass heavy offense (15 more rushes than passes against Carolina; 29 rushes to 28 passes against Philly) gives one playoff veteran (Warner) time to breathe, while another playoff veteran (Edge) gets to prove his worth again. The D has been stout against the run, and it will need to be again this week since Pittsburgh likes to grind it out.

Do go to Steve Breaston early and often. I expect Pittsburgh's heavy hitters to come out hard early, whacking whoever has the ball. The last thing the Cards need is for Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin to be laid-out by Polamalu and Co. Breaston is a quality receiver, so he can make the catches ... and as evil as this sounds, it's better for him to get upended than Fitz. Plus, with Boldin already hobbling around the field, he'll be an easy target early in the game.

Don’t expect Kurt Warner to have the same time to throw the ball as he has had in 11 of 12 quarters this postseason (the 3rd quarter of the NFC Championship being the exception). Dick LeBeau has himself a mighty fine defense with an exceptional front seven. They will look to smack Warner around early and often. This is why it will be key to keep running the ball, even if it's with limited success. If you don't, then pack some extra Depends for Kurt.

The Cards had better hope Warner doesn't wear this uniform on Sunday ...

Don't think that an injury to Roethlisberger will be good for you. Byron Leftwich has proven himself more than capable in his relief appearances this year, particularly in the Monday Night game at Washington. But if Big Ben does go down to an injury, CHANGE YOUR DEFENSIVE SCHEME. Byron is a different quarterback who won't be rattled in the same ways that Ben will be. Still keep the heat on him, but rushing only one extra guy at a time. You WILL need your secondary beefed up if Leftwich comes in the game.

Don’t buy into this crap comparing Whisenhunt to Jon Gruden of the 2003 Super Bowl. Yes, both took their new teams to face their old teams in the Super Bowl, but there are key differences. First, Oakland promoted Gruden's successor, Bill Callahan, from within and kept Gruden's system intact. Pittsburgh brought a new head coach altogether into the fold and immediately began adapting some of the offense, giving Ben Roethlisberger more responsibilities. Second, Gruden faced his old team the very same year he left them. The Steelers have had 2 seasons to change their Whisenhunt-isms on offense. If the Cards win this game, it will not be due to Pittsburgh using the same signals and playcalls that they used 2 years ago.

Matchups - Armin:

When the Pittsburgh has the Ball:

Hines Ward vs. Roderick Hood & Santonio Holmes vs. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ("DRC")

Hood and DRC have been playing their best football in the playoffs, while Roethlisburger, Ward and Holmes have nothing to prove. The questions remain: Can Hood play that physical game with Ward, and can DRC keep in stride with Holmes. If Ward starts making those tough catches down the stretch, and Holmes gets open for a couple of big plays, Arizona faces a steep uphill battle.

When Arizona has the Ball:

Mike Gandy and Levi Jones vs. James Harrison and Lamarr Woodley

How do you beat Kurt Warner? It's simple. You hit him. Gandy and Jones are up for their toughest task of the season. They must keep NFL Defensive Player of the Year, Harrison, off Kurt Warner. At the same time, they're dealing with Harrison's bookend, Woodley, who is surging during the playoffs. If Gandy and Jones don't step their game up a notch and keep Warner off his back, the Steelers defense will make short work of the Cardinals offense.

Intangibles - Armin:

Super Bowl Experience

Both 2nd year head coaches are in their first Super Bowl in that role. However, Whisenhunt won a Super Bowl as the offensive coordinator for the Steelers and Tomlin won one as the DB coach for the Buccaneers. Which coach will do a better job pulling from his Super Bowl experience? Tomlin also has a bit of an advantage here. He has many players that were on the team during Pittsburgh's triumph in Super Bowl XL. Whisenhunt, on the other hand, has very few who draw upon that experience. Kurt Warner is about all he has. There is no question that Whisenhunt is at an intangible disadvantage. However, the Cards seem to have destiny on their side.

... and the Steelers had better hope Coach Tomlin quits his day job alongside Gregory House

Win It For Pat

Last time around, the Steelers wanted to win it for Jerome. Now, it's the Cards who are the Team of Destiny. Can they muster up enough intestinal fortitude to play like Pat Tillman is standing behind them? Can they win it for Pat? While some don't like cliche's like "Win one for the Gipper", this situation screams for Tillman to be the reason for a franchise he proudly played for to win the Lombardi. Here's hoping that if the Cards are holding that trophy after the game, that they point their fingers to the sky and pay homage to a man who may have been the first in the NFL to say, I WANT to play football for the Arizona Cardinals.

Predictions

Come back tomorrow for final predictions from the PHSports crew...

NFL Championship Weekend Pre-Game Analysis: Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Expect the defenses to get UGLY (courtesy of nytimes)

Pittsburgh Do’s and Don’t’s

Do let Willie Parker do his best Chris Johnson impersonation…except for the part where Johnson didn’t play the 2nd half. If Chris Johnson had played the 2nd half of the game, the Titans would probably have been the opponent here.

Do put 8 to 9 men in the box and stifle the Ravens run game. Jim Schartz did it last week, holding Ravens RBs to 50 yards on 30 carries. The Titans nearly shut down the Ravens offense, if not for a non-call on a big play. If McGahee and/or McClain get going, the Ravens offense will open up for business.

Do attack the banged up secondary of the Ravens. All DB starters, including S Ed Reed (knee, hamstring), S Jim Leonhard (concussion), CB Samari Rolle (groin) and CB Fabian Washington (neck) are nicked up. This is also a group that isn’t boasting much depth.

Don’t let the refs give the Ravens any cheap plays. The Flacco to Heap play on what should have been a Delay of Game penalty gave the Ravens the leg-up they needed to beat the Titans. It is hard enough to beat the Ravens. Playing against the Ravens and the Refs could make the mission impossible. Then again, do hope that the refs take your side and allow another controversial catch (ala the Santonio Holmes’s TD in Week 15).

Don’t let the Ravens’ 1-7 record at Heinz field fool you. They marched into Tennessee and walked away with a W. In a match up like this one, the Ravens may be forced to push the envelope and try to make some aggressive plays. Be patient, and wait for them to make mistakes.

Baltimore Do’s and Don’t’s

Do what is necessary to get Flacco hot early. Against a defense like the Steelers, it takes one to set up the other, either pass to set up the run or run to set up the pass. The Steelers should be hell-bent on stopping the run, so the Flacco will be key in getting the offense running on all cylinders.

Do put Ed Reed in position to get 2+ turnovers. This sounds oddly familiar. Oh yeah, I said this last week. The Ravens are undefeated when Reed gets 2 or more turnovers. Redundant? Yes. Dismissible? No.

Do take some chances. The Ravens are the underdogs, and winning the momentum game is a requirement. How do you get momentum? Big plays. Time to get Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason into their track shoes, as some long-balls should be coming.

Don’t expect the defense to do 100% of the work. The Ravens offense cannot put up another 211 yard, 9 first down, offensive performance again. It worked against the Titans, but it will not work against the Steelers. While it’s tougher against a defense like the Steelers, it is an imperative if you want to make it to Super Bowl Sunday.

Don’t let the regular season sweep by the Steelers make you think you have no chance here. Since 1970 teams who swept their division rival in the regular season have gone 11-7 against that team when they’ve met in that season’s playoffs. There is some light at the end of the tunnel for the Ravens.

Key Match ups:

When either team has the Ball
Defense vs. Defense
These are the top two defenses in the league. One of these teams will be playing for the championship against an NFC team that shouldn’t stand a chance against them. Could we see the game go into overtime, knotted up at 0-0? Improbable, yet not impossible, and awe-inspiring.

When either team has the Ball
Offensive QB vs. Defensive QB
It’ll be a match up of Flacco vs. Polamalu and Roethlisburger vs. Reed. Which QB can cut down on the mistakes, and which safety can cause the opposing offense to make mistakes?

Intangibles

Keep It Clean
With the rivalry (hatred?) between these teams, we’ve seen a lot of hard hits and cheap shots in past games. Both teams received warnings this year. The Ravens in particular are scrutinized as Terrell Suggs and Co. were called out for their bounty hunting Hines Ward and Rashard Mendelhall. It would be unfortunate for this game to be decided on stupid penalties resulting from immature behavior. No death threats from Bart Scott either.

Escaping Logic
As much as I’ve been talking up the defenses, this match up actually comes down to Cam Cameron and Bruce Arians. Which offensive coordinator comes in and calls the right play at the right time that determines this game? Can either of their offenses put up 20+ on the best defenses in the league?

Final Score Prediction
In a battle for the ages, the Steelers edge the Ravens 16-13 in Overtime.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: San Diego at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Do’s and Don’t’s

Do take advantage of the renewed health on the league’s most dominant defense. NFL Defensive MVP James Harrison, safety Ryan Clark, and corner Bryant McFadden are all ready to go. Somewhere, Norv Turner is wondering why his prayers went unanswered.

Do get Big Ben and the receivers in rhythm early. The Chargers defense is not the best against the pass, and gives up a lot of yardage. Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Nate Washington and Heath Miller all need to step up to take the pressure off Roethlisburger and Parker who are playing this game below 100%.

Do pray for the worst weather. The Chargers will be out of their cozy southern California element. If the weather is cold and rainy at Heinz Field, the Steelers will have a big advantage.

Don’t get 13 penalties for 115 yards like the last time against the Bolts. With Roethlisburger passing for 300+ and Parker rushing for 100+, it was still an 11-10 game. Discipline will go a long way in helping the Steelers move to the AFC Championship.

Don’t hesitate to bring in Leftwich if Roethlisburger is struggling. Big Ben suffered a nasty concussion in week 17 (where both of his arms went numb). Apparently Tomlin has dismissed the notion of pulling Big Ben, but that could be a mistake. Leftwich isn’t your run-of-the-mill backup. He has a lot of valuable experience as a starter, and should be ready to step up.

San Diego Do’s and Don’t’s

Do get Darren Sproles heavily involved. In their first meeting of the clubs, Sproles only handled the ball three times. Obviously, if Tomlinson is out for this game, Sproles will get the lion’s share of touches.

Do attack through the air and let Phillip Rivers’s hot hand do the damage. In the Colts game, we saw Gates, Jackson, Chambers and Sproles get looks. That should continue. Hopefully Vincent Jackson isn’t held out of the game for the DUI.

Do let your front seven control the game. Feeding off the nasty play from the defensive line (Williams, Castillo & Olshansky) over the last 5 games, this defense blossomed, giving opposing QBs fits as they don’t have much time to make their throws.

Don’t let this turn into the 11-10 knock-down drag-out match earlier in the season. The Steelers will take the close game. They have the more seasoned team. And another Polamalu invisible TD could send fans over the edge, and the media trolling for hours to figure out what the final score should have been.

Don’t count on Kaeding with the game on the line. He has a history of choking in the playoffs. However, don’t fret when punting. If Mike Scifres punts like he did against the Colts, the field position battle heavily favors the Bolts. Any offense with their back against the end-zone plays a much more conservative offense, and the Bolts defense could capitalize.

Key Matchups:

When Pittsburgh has the Ball
C Justin Hartwig vs. NT Jamal Williams
Jamal Williams has been straight-up NASTY lately. He has as much to do with the success of the San Diego defense late in the season as anyone. Hartwig is one of the most underrated centers in the league. Steelers FB Carey Davis might need to step up and help out.

When San Diego has the Ball
TE Antonio Gates vs. Troy Polamalu
Antonio Gates has recently looked like the Gates of old, who was one of the most prolific pass receiving TEs in the game. Polamalu will probably draw this assignment on most pass plays. This is one of those classic battles where you have two of the best players at their respective positions facing off. Definitely keep this match up in your periphery when the Chargers are in the Red Zone.

Intangibles

Game Day Interview
Like Rex Ryan of the Ravens and Jim Schwartz of the Titans, this is also the case-study portion of Ron Rivera’s job interview on the sidelines. Expect more of the same stuff you saw in the Wild Card Playoff game against the Colts.

Ride the Streak
The streak is at 5 games, and coming off a win against a very hot Colts team, the Bolts are on a high. The question is: What team is going to show up? The Bolts who are on a rampage, tearing through any team in their path, or a team with an inflated ego facing a dominant Steelers defense who’s ready to burst their bubble?

Final Score Prediction
Steelers edge the Bolts 23-21

Tuesday FourCast: Week 5

With a quarter of the season down the chute, we expected trends to start developing and performances to begin normalizing. Did we see that in Week 5? Nope. That said, here’s the Week 5 FourCast …

#1. The Washington Redskins Are For Real (and in October, not March)
Being from the Washington area, I am accustomed to hearing fans celebrating … in the month of March whenever a free agent is signed or whenever the team trades for a high-profile player. For years, I would mock Redskins fans and dub them the “Super Bowl Champions … of March”. In the last couple of seasons, the Redskins organization has discovered this thing called continuity and see that there’s some value. In spite of a new offensive system brought by a new coach, Jason Campbell’s millionth (seventh, actually) since he earned his high school diploma, the organization kept many of its coaches and players in place. They even had draft picks, one of which – Chris Horton – was defensive rookie for the month of September. The only return to business as usual for the Redskins was a trade for perennial Pro Bowl defensive end Jason Taylor; however, many, including myself, would argue that it was necessitated by season-ending injuries to two defensive ends on the same day in training camp and that it was not a move made by Dan Snyder for the sake of catching headlines. Since the nationally televised debacle against the New York Giants, Washington has rattled off four straight victories – two in succession at Dallas and Philadelphia. More importantly, the Redskins #6 offense (351.2 yards per game) has not given away the ball over nearly a third through the season and the defense has forced seven turnovers. Moving forward, the onus will be on head coach Jim Zorn to prepare his team for the next three games, in which the Redskins are expected to be favorites.

#2. Please Relegate the Detroit Lions
I don’t even want to call it football. That’s not what the Lions play. This team (a contradiction in terms, I know) has zero pride. If they had any, they would not fold like a lawn chair every time they stopped onto the field. I have and will continue to call the 11 (and sometimes, 12) people who stand on the field at the same time as their opponents’ offense a “Pop Warner Defense”.

Knowing this, I humbly request that the NFL relegates the Detroit Lions organization to either NFL Europe or the Arena League (or even, the CFL – they are close enough to Canada to become the Windsor Lions). My only requests for the promoted team is (a) that they have a cool name and (b) play as close or closer to the north as the Arizona Cardinals were to the east.

#3. Not Sold on Pittsburgh as a Contender
If you had an opportunity to watch Pittsburgh’s 26-21 victory at Jacksonville, then you are more likely to consider Ben Roethlisberger as one of the game’s best. After throwing a pick six to … you guessed, Rashean Mathis, Roethlisberger was undeterred in his pursuit to win and made plays all throughout the season despite lacking his top three running backs and a cohesive offensive line. Though Big Ben had a gymnast’s dexterity whenever the game hinged on his performance and the defense was impenetrable for much of the game, I am not sold on Pittsburgh’s ability to make a sustained run in the AFC. Despite playing in what many thought was the NFL’s weakest division prior to the season, the Steelers have required heroics to win the last two weeks and are another Big Ben body blow away from missing valuable snaps. Additionally, Pittsburgh is only 20th in rushing yards per game, a far cry from their #3 rank last season.

#4. Awkward Games Are This Season’s Calling Card
Anyone who watched last night’s Minnesota/New Orleans game or watched the highlights know that this was an awkward. It’s not every day that you see a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, a halfback pass for a score and two punt returns taken to the house (Craig Kluwe is so cut and gets the “Durant Brooks Award” for kicking two low line drives to Reggie Bush in succession after one was already returned for a score).

However, awkward games have been this season’s calling card. Less than thirty hours before the Monday Night game, Indianapolis was down three scores to Houston with less than five minutes to go. I’ll spare you the highlights, because all of our readers have already seen the meltdown and know that Indy has been given a lifeline. As a rule of thumb moving forward, any game involving New Orleans, Denver, Reliant Stadium, Minnesota (against real NFL teams only), Ed Hochuli’s crew, the Wildcat formation and the desert have an elevated awkwardness rating. Let’s call it “Code Orange”.

The Code Orange games for Week 6 include the following:
* Oakland @ New Orleans. The Saints will either lose and give up a 1.5 yards per carry against the Raiders or win and give up 400+ yards of total offense.

* Miami @ Houston. This is actually Code Red due to two factors being satisfied. If Hochuli does this game, we have a trifecta.

* Jacksonville @ Denver. The Broncos can easily win despite giving up 8 yards per carry and 80 yards to three Jags backs. Good luck tackling David Garrard.

* Dallas @ Arizona. Bizarre things happen in the desert. The quicker you accept this fundamental verity, the better you can handle the consequences. Last week, no one knew why the Cardinals were 1-point favorites against then-undefeated Buffalo (I picked them only because I had to for my pick ‘em league) despite not having the services of top-flight wide receiver Anquan Boldin and they won by 24.

5 NFL Questions - Week 5

1. Will the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Aaron Rodgers be able to play and be effective?
2. With both starting tackles out for Carolina, can Kansas City actually get to the quarterback?
3. Can Indianapolis hold Houston's backs to under 125 yards?
4. Which unconventional formation (if any) will we see from the Miami Dolphins?
5. Is Adrian Peterson due for a 200-yard game?