PHSports Simulation Series: Super Bowl XLII (pictures to come soon ...)

by Chris Clement

In a tradition that has gone as far back as…today…we here at PHSports are ready to do away with computer and metric-based simulations and instead focus on something random, yet incredible entertaining.

Super Bowl XLII…three days early.

How does it happen? The power of technology!

Enter an XBOX, the New England Patriots versus the New York Giants, a 26-inch flat-screen television and XBOX’s willingness to update rosters on a seemingly monthly basis.

The difficulty was boosted to All-Madden, attributes were reset to system levels, ditto for rules/preferences/options. We tried to silence Madden as much as we could, but we had no hope.

Even an MVP was named.

Let’s check the highlights…

1st Quarter
The coin toss led to New England receiving the ball. Unfortunately for Giants fans, the score wasn’t tied for long. After a rather ho-hum 27-yard return from Laurence Maroney, the Patriots marched down the field 73 yards in 5 plays. Along the way were two runs from Maroney (tabbing 20 total yards) and 3 straight Tom Brady completions to Randy Moss. The end result was the game’s first score, a 24-yard grab from a wide-open Moss. Where were you Gibril Wilson? The Giants struggled out of the gate on offense, with Hixon’s return only reaching the 15 before a 3-and-out with three incompletions from Eli “Don’t Cal me Peyton’s Little Brother” Manning. Kevin Faulk’s 8-yard punt return gave the Pats the ball inside Giant territory. After 2 short rushes, Brady continued his perfect start with 4 completions (2 to Stallworth and 2 to Welker) before hitting Donte Stallworth on a short slant for a 6-yard touchdown on the last play of the 1st quarter. 14-0 Patriots as Brady was 8-for-8 with 2 TDs. A third Super Bowl MVP Trophy seemed apparent.

2nd Quarter
Lightning nearly struck again for Hixon as he took back the Pats kick…to the 15 yard line. Two rushes from Brandon Jacobs and then a TE waggle to Kevin Boss afforded the Giants 1st and goal at the 2-yard line. Eli snuck it in himself on 1st down to give the Giants their first TD of the game, now trailing 14-7. Somehow, New England ran 3 straight times for only 8 yards and punted. After a fair catch from RW McQuarters, the Giants marched downfield on a 8-play, 54 yard drive resulting in a 24-yard field goal from Lawrence Tynes. The key plays on the drive included a 3 and 2 conversion by Ahmad Bradshaw on a screen pass and a crushing hit from Asante Samuel in the endzone, jarring the ball loose from Amani Toomer on 3rd and Goal. With the score 14-10 and less than 45 seconds remaining in the half, it appeared the Giants had officially made a game of it. Not so fast. Randy Moss took a reverse 33 yards and then caught a 41-yard touchdown with 7 seconds left to give the Patriots a 21-10 halftime lead. Eli could only hand the ball off to Jacobs to run out the clock following a mediocre kickoff return. 21-10 at the half, Randy Moss had officially woken out of his playoff slumber.

3rd Quarter
The game saw its first turnover on the first pass of the second-half, resulting in a pick by Adalius Thomas of Eli Manning (who had targeted Steve Smith in the flat). Thomas rumbled 15 yards down to the 6-yard line before being tackled by Plaxico Burress (who, to this point, had 0 catches). Laurence Maroney needed 2 rushes to piledrive into the endzone. Pats fans celebrated while Tom Coughlin stared blankly from the sidelines at a 28-10 deficit. The Giants struggled to move the ball, but benefited from two pass interference penalties on Randall Gay to allow Tynes to sail through an impressive 45-yard field goal. Eli’s completion percentage had dipped below 45% while Brady had only 3 incompletions in over fifteen attempts to that point. The Patriots weren’t able to score on their second drive of the second half; however, they ran out the clock before pinning the Giants inside their own 10 yard-line. 28-13 after three quarters of play.

4th Quarter
In a play eerily familiar to Donald Driver’s 90-yard NFC Championship Game TD, a Super Bowl record was set on 3rd and 3 from their own 13 when Eli Manning hit Steve Smith for an 87-yard touchdown. Simply burning All-Pro cornerback Asante Samuel and free safety Rodney Harrison, Smith went untouched into the endzone in what was by far the game’s most exciting moment. Tipping the score to 28-20, the Giants were somehow only one-possession away from tying the game. Thoughts of a tie game seemed realistic after a poor kickoff return and two stuffed rushes by the Giant defense. Then, in one of the oddest playcalls I can remember, the Patriots called a rush up the middle on 3rd and 13 against a rather stacked line. With only three minutes remaining, Laurence Maroney shook off a brutal hit 4 yards in the backfield by Fred Robbins and sliced and diced his way to a 58-yard rush. Pushing him over 100 yards and crippling the chances of the Giant offense, Maroney would remain in the game and broke off another big run, this time of 18 yards, placing the ball on the 4 yard line. A play-action bootleg by Brady, never a norm for New England, resulted in Touchdown Tom’s third TD of the day, this one to Benjamin Watson to give the Patriots a 35-20 advantage. The game’s closing minutes saw Plaxico’s first catch (21 yards) and a forced fumble on Eli Manning by Vince Wilfork (also recovered by Wilfork). The Patriots took two kneels after securing one last first-down on a personal foul late hit downfield by Sam Madison on Wes Welker (after a 8-yard reception on 3rd and 15) and Super Bowl XVII was over. Bill Belichick was lifted up by his players and New England enjoyed their fourth Super Bowl trophy in four years, while Giants players, notably Manning/Jacobs/Strahan (he and the entire Giant team was held sackless), held their heads down in remorse. The camera was even shook by the eventual MVP, enjoying his first Super Bowl victory.

Final Score: New England wins 35-20
MVP: Randy Moss [4 receptions, 106 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 33 yards]

Scoring Summary
1st Quarter
Patriots: Tom Brady 24-yard pass to Randy Moss for TOUCHDOWN
[5 plays, 73 yards, XP Good.]
New England leas 7-0

Patriots: Tom Brady 6-yard pass to Donte Stallworth for TOUCHDOWN
[6 plays, 49 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 14-0.

2nd Quarter
Giants: Eli Manning 2-yard rush for TOUCHDOWN
[4 plays, 15 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 14-7.

Giants: 24 yard-field goal attempt by Lawrence Tynes is GOOD
[8 plays, 54 yards, FG Good.]
New England leads 14-10.

Patriots: Tom Brady 41-yard pass to Randy Moss for TOUCHDOWN
[4 plays, 76 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 21-10.

3rd Quarter
New England: Laurence Maroney 2 yard rush for TOUCHDOWN
[2 plays, 6 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 28-10.

New York: 45-yard field-goal attempt by Lawrence Tynes is GOOD
[5 plays, 45 yards, 1 penalty]
New England leads 28-13.

4th Quarter
New York: Eli Manning 87-yard pass to Steve Smith for TOUCHDOWN
[3 plays, 93 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 28-20.

New England: Tom Brady 4-yard pass to Benjamin Watson for TOUCHDOWN
[5 plays, 85 yards, XP Good.]
New England leads 35-20.

Key Player Statistics
Patriots
Tom Brady: 14-17, 169 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
Laurence Maroney: 16 rushes, 128 yards, TD
Randy Moss: 4 receptions, 106 yards, 2 TDs, 1 rush, 33 yards
Donte Stallworth: 2 receptions, 26 yards, TD
Wes Welker: 3 receptions, 27 yards, 2-first downs
Benjamin Watson: 3 receptions, 1 yard, 1 TD
Adalius Thomas: 5 tackles, INT, sack
Vince Wilfork: 2 tackles, 1 sack, forced fumble, fumble recovery
Rodney Harrison: 8.5 tackles, 0 penalties

Giants
Eli Manning: 11-19, 222 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rush TD, 1 lost fumble
Brandon Jacobs: 8 rushes, 38 yards, 1 reception, 10 yards
Plaxico Buress: 1 receptions, 21 yards, 2 drops, 1 tackle
Amani Toomer: 4 receptions, 60 yards
Steve Smith: 4 receptions, 126 yds, TD
Kevin Boss: 1 reception 5 yards, 1 drop
Michael Strahan: 1 tackle, 0 sacks, 0 QB hurries
Antonio Pierce: 11.5 tackles, 2 pass deflections
Lawrence Tynes: 2/2 FGs, 2 XPs, 8 points

PHSports Play of the Game: Steve Smith’s untouched 87-yard touchdown reception.
Art Monk Award: Laurence Maroney
-For carrying the ball with intensity and quiet composure. Rushed for 7 first downs on 16 carries, including drive during which Maroney carried the ball 4 times for 81 yards.
Defining Moment: Maroney’s 54-yard scamper on 3rd and 13 to break open a 28-20 game.

I hope you enjoyed it. I wish the game had been closer, but it was surprisingly fun to watch.

Until next time…

Record Day for PHSports

Yesterday, PHSports not only broke its previous record number of hits for a single day, but tripled it leading to a wild day that was pretty unfathomable in the eyes of each of our unique contributors.

On behalf of the contributors, I'd like to thank all who helped shatter that record.

We will continue to provide you in-depth NFL and NCAA coverage. Have a great day!

PHSports 2008 NFL Mock Draft: Super Bowl Week

Once again via conference call, the PHSports foursome conducted our pre-Super Bowl Mock Draft. This time we went two rounds deep.

Team Allocations

Clement: NY Jets, Cleveland, Dallas, Tennessee, Oakland, Chicago, Atlanta, St. Louis

Paymon: Miami, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit, Carolina, Arizona

Sum: New England, San Francisco, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, NY Giants, Denver, Green Bay, New Orleans

Armin: Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Washington, Houston, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota


1st Round:
1. Miami: Glenn Dorsey, DT - LSU
2. St. Louis: Jake Long, OT - Michigan
3. Atlanta: Matt Ryan, QB - Boston College
4. Oakland: Darren McFadden, RB - Arkansas
5. Kansas City: Chris Long, DE - Virginia
6. New York Jets: Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB - Ohio State
7. New England*: Mike Jenkins, CB - South Florida
8. Baltimore: Brian Brohm, QB - Louisville
9. Cincinnati: Sedric Ellis, DT - USC
10. New Orleans: Keith Rivers, OLB - USC
11. Buffalo: Adarius Bowman, WR - Oklahoma State
12. Denver: Kenny Phillips, FS - Miami
13. Carolina: Ryan Clady, OT - Boise State
14. Chicago: Andre' Woodson, QB - Kentucky
15. Detroit: Derrick Harvey, DE - Florida
16. Arizona: Calais Campbell, DE - Miami
17. Minnesota: Quentin Groves, DE - Auburn
18. Houston: Aqib Talib, CB - Kansas
19. Philadelphia: Malcolm Kelly, WR - Oklahoma
20. Tampa Bay: Sam Baker, OT - USC
21. Washington: Limas Sweed, WR - Texas
22. Dallas**: DeSean Jackson, WR - California
23. Pittsburgh: Gosder Cherilus, OT - Boston College
24. Tennessee: James Hardy, WR - Indiana
25. Seattle: Rashard Mendenhall, RB - Illinois
26. Jacksonville: Phillip Merling, DE - Clemson
27. San Diego: Tracy Porter, CB - Indiana
28. Dallas: Leodis McKelvin, CB - Troy
29. San Francisco***: Mario Manningham, WR - Michigan
30. Green Bay: Justin King, CB - Penn State
31. New York Giants: Dan Connor, LB - Penn State
-- New England forfeits pick

* = from San Francisco
** = from Cleveland
*** = from Indianapolis

2nd Round:
32. Miami: Reggie Smith, DB - Oklahoma
33. St. Louis: Ali Highsmith, OLB - LSU
34. Oakland: Kentwan Balmer, DT - North Carolina
35. Kansas City: Chris Williams, OT - Vanderbilt
36. New York Jets: Felix Jones, RB - Arkansas
37. Atlanta: Jeff Otah, OT - Pittsburgh
38. Baltimore: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB - Tennessee State
39. San Francisco: Shawn Crable, OLB - Michigan
40. New Orleans: Antoine Cason, CB - Arizona
41. Buffalo: Charles Godfrey, CB - Iowa
42. Denver: Frank Okam, DT - Texas
43. Carolina: Joe Flacco, QB - Delaware
44. Chicago: Anthony Collins, OT - Kansas
45. Detroit: Jamaal Charles, RB - Texas
46. Cincinnati: Tony Hills, OT - Texas
47. Minnesota: Marcus Griffin, DB - Texas
48. Atlanta****: Early Doucet, WR - LSU
49. Philadelphia: Lawrence Jackson, DE - USC
50. Arizona: Jonathan Stewart, RB - Oregon
51. Washington: Pat Sims, DT - Auburn
52. Tampa Bay: Branden Flowers, CB - Virginia Tech
53. Pittsburgh: Marcus Monk, WR - Arkansas
54. Tennessee: DeJuan Tribble, CB - Boston College
55. Seattle: Martellus Bennett, TE - Texas A&M
56. Cleveland: Mike Hart, RB - Michigan
57. Miami*****: Curtis Lofton, ILB - Oklahoma
58. Jacksonville: Earl Bennett, WR - Vanderbilt
59. Dallas: Steve Slaton, RB - West Virginia
60. Green Bay: John Carlson, TE - Notre Dame
61. Indianapolis: Chris Ellis, DE - Virginia Tech
62. New York Giants: Jonathan Hefney, DB - Tennessee
63. New England: Jerod Mayo, LB - Tennessee

**** = from Houston
***** = from San Diego

Here's a link to the last mock draft we conducted for Week 12

Please leave comments. We're big boys, we can take the criticism (and some praise too)

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - January 28, 2008

It’s official. Kansas is Self-proof. And by that, I mean by that this Kansas team can win the National Championship in spite of Bill Self’s record in big games. For that reason, I’ve decided to place to Jayhawks – who have shown zero vulnerability since the Arizona game – ahead of Memphis who is fantastic in their own right. Meanwhile, the battle for the final #1 seed tightened as North Carolina has forgotten how to defend and Duke continues to churn out victories.

Following the top 11 spots, there is a considerable drop-off in resume quality. Despite a loss on their home floor to UConn who was missing two players, Indiana’s high upside keeps them right above the 4-line. On the 4-line, Arizona and Drake are unexpected inhabitants. For the former, Jerryd Bayless is healthy and the ‘Cats are 13-3 when he plays (1-3 when he does not). As for Drake, they continue to win close games in the ultra-competitive Valley, but their luck may soon run out.

In the ever-changing Mountain West, UNLV is the conference’s lone representative this week, as they defeated San Diego State in enemy territory. Staying out west, New Mexico State validated my confidence in them by thumping Utah State, who played without four players due to suspension.

In the battle for the final two at-large selections, it was a four-way scrum between Maryland, Arkansas, Syracuse and Villanova. By virtue of winning 6 of 8 and giving Duke all it could handle, Maryland has shown plenty moving into February. In spite of having the single strongest win between the three (versus Pittsburgh), Villanova’s play this week was appalling at best and they seem to be heading in the opposite direction. Though Syracuse was impressive in defeat (@ Georgetown) and in victory (vs. Providence), Arkansas gets the nod due to having more quality wins.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Kansas (Big XII), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10), North Carolina (ACC)
2: Duke, Tennessee (SEC), Michigan State (Big Ten), Georgetown (Big East)
3: Washington State, Texas, Xavier (A-10), Indiana
4: Butler, Marquette, Arizona, Drake (MVC)
5: Wisconsin, Kansas State, Gonzaga (WCC), Vanderbilt
6: Dayton, Oklahoma, USC, Pittsburgh
7: St. Mary’s, Louisville, Stanford, Texas A&M
8: UConn, Clemson, West Virginia, Mississippi State
9: Ohio State, Florida, Baylor, Kent State (MAC)
10: Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Rhode Island, Miami
11: UNLV (MWC), Purdue, South Alabama (Sun Belt), St. Joseph’s
12: Illinois State, Cleveland State (Horizon), Maryland, Arkansas
13: George Mason (Colonial), Davidson (Southern), Sam Houston State (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cal State Northridge (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic)
15: Winthrop (Big South), Hampton (MEAC), Bucknell (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East)
16: Northern Arizona (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Oklahoma, UConn, UNLV, Purdue, St. Joseph’s, Maryland, Arkansas, Oral Roberts, Cornell
OUT: Arizona State, UMass, San Diego State, Villanova, Providence, Virginia, Creighton, Yale, IUPUI

Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Illinois State, Maryland, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Syracuse, Villanova, UMass, NC State
Next Four Out: Arizona State, Boston College, Oregon, Georgia Tech

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 5/10 – UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, USC, Stanford
Big XII: 6/12 – Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Baylor
SEC: 6/12 – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Big East: 7/16 – Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, UConn, West Virginia, Notre Dame
Big Ten: 5/11 – Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue
ACC: 5/12 – North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Maryland
A-10: 4/14 – Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s
Missouri Valley: 2/10 – Drake, Illinois State
Horizon: 2/10 – Butler, Cleveland State
West Coast: 2/10 – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

My Somewhat Unhealthy Blake Griffin Man Crush

Be it an open court dunk or a fight for a loose ball on the blocks, Blake Griffin does it.

Credit: CNN

Earlier this week, I made the decision to exclude the Oklahoma Sooners from the Big Dance entirely upon learning that freshman forward Blake Griffin would be out with a knee sprain for approximately four weeks. Prior to this knowledge, the Sooners were rated among my top 25 teams. That’s because since watching Griffin’s grit and determination against Gonzaga and then in a hostile semi-away game versus West Virginia in Charleston, yours truly has developed a basketball man crush. After working 12 hours two Mondays ago, I took solace in that I would be watching Blake Griffin take on Kansas’s big man trio of Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun. Sadly, Blake Griffin sprained his knee early in the first half in a game which Oklahoma had zero margin for error. When the news of four weeks on the shelf hit the wire, the expectation of returning to the NCAA Tournament went to the wayside.

Of course, as we now know, four weeks happened to be 11 days, as Griffin unexpectedly returned Saturday to play at Baylor with his customary contribution of 17 points and 15 rebounds ... but only in 22 minutes. The result was a 77-71 triumph.

A calming influence and a leader, Griffin reminds me of Sean May at the collegiate level with more athletic ability. Evidence to that fact was Griffin’s return to the hardwood last night. Entering with 14 minutes remaining in the first half, Griffin took down a board, delivered a dish and scored a bucket that buoy the Sooners on a 10-0 run that placed the team in a position of relative comfort for the remainder of the game.

Many are pondering whether Griffin will stay in Norman with his brother, Taylor, or bolt for greener pastures of the Association. At present, Griffin may garner lottery considerations, but may be best served to stay in school for at least one more year due to an impressive crop of one-year wonders who might very well be selected before him.

Looking ahead, the Sooners (14-5, 2-2) have a tricky next five games in which they hope to win four of five.

Mon, Jan 28 – vs. Oklahoma State
Sat, Feb 2 -- @ Texas A&M
Wed, Feb 6 – vs. Texas
Sat, Feb 9 -- @ Colorado
Wed, Feb 13 – Iowa State

Pro Football HoF Missing an Important Piece

Do you remember that kid in high school who everybody loved? You know, the one who was good at so many things, but hardly ever bragged about it? The one who was always there when you needed him? The one who had the potential to be the star at everything, but spent his time quietly helping others achieve their personal best? That’s right … the one who everybody knew should have been voted “Most Likely to Succeed” instead of the loudmouth showboat who ended up winning that particular superlative.

Well, the NFL and the Pro Football Hall of Fame have their very own version of “that kid.” His name is Art Monk. He was the first player in NFL history to break the 100-reception mark in a season, a barrier that was not broken by another player for six more season. He retired in 1995 as the all-time receptions leader with 940 catches. He caught all of these passes without whining to his coaches or quarterbacks (none of whom were named or played at the level of Joe Montana, Steve Young or Troy Aikman) about wanting more catches. In fact, he caught 940 passes while helping his fellow wideouts break loose for long plays, and helping his teams’ running backs by some of the best downfield blocking seen from a wide receiver.

Photo from SI.com

Yet, Art Monk has been snubbed by the Hall of Fame Voters time and time again. They point to the fact that his career yards-per-reception stands at “only” 13.5, ignoring the fact that he put his body on the line to go across the middle time and time again. How many times have we seen supposed star receivers develop a case of the alligator arms while trying to catch a first-down pass across the middle? You never saw Monk pull back. To that end, during his 14 years as a Redskin, nearly two-thirds of Monk’s 888 receptions were for first downs. How’s that for a statistic?

The case for placing Art Monk in the Hall of Fame would take up pages upon pages of this blog, space which we do not have. However, I urge you to take a look at this letter and either cut/paste it or use it as inspiration for your own letter to any or all of the Hall of Fame voters. The names and contact info for all but 6 of the voters is below. If you have info on any of the ones I’m missing, please pass it along.

Finally, I’d like to leave you with two items. First is a link to an excellent website devoted to getting Art Monk into the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Second is an excerpt from an article that SI.com’s Peter King wrote about how he changed his mind from being a Monk hater to a believer:

“As I made my rounds of training camps this year, I asked veteran coaches about Monk and the one word that kept coming up was “unselfish.” His downfield blocking prowess kept coming up. His long-term numbers were almost Yastrzemski-like (one or two great years, lots of productive ones, very reliable). But when I talked to Joe Gibbs on Friday, the one thing that stood out was the body of work we don’t see — the downfield blocking, the quiet leadership, and this: Unlike his louder receiving mates Clark and Ricky Sanders, Monk, according to Gibbs, never once said he wanted the ball more. “We used him almost as a tight end a lot,” said Gibbs, “and not only did he do it willingly, he was a great blocker for us. If he’d been a squeaky wheel, who knows how many catches Art would have had. But he cared about one thing — the team.” (SI.com - 11/27/2006)

Kent Somers, Arizona Republic	kent.somers@arizonarepublic.com
Len Pasquarelli, ESPN.com
Scott Garceau, WMAR-TV	Garceau@wmar.com
Mark Gaughan, Buffalo News	mgaughan@buffnews.com
Charles Chandler, Charlotte Observer	cchandler@charlotteobserver.com
Dan Pompei, Chicago Tribune	dpompei@tribune.com
Chick Ludwig, Dayton Daily News	cludwig@daytondailynews.com
Tony Grossi, Cleveland Plain Dealer	tgrossi@plaind.com
Rick Gosselin, Dallas Morning News	rgosselin@dallasnews.com
Jeff Legwold, Rocky Mountain News	sports@RockyMountainNews.com
Mike O'Hara, The Detroit News	mohara@detnews.com
Cliff Christl, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel	cchristl@journalsentinel.com
John McClain, Houston Chronicle	john.mcclain@chron.com
Mike Chappell, Indianapolis Star	mike.chappell@indystar.com
Sam Kouvaris, WJXT-TV	skouvari@wjxt.com
Bob Gretz, KCFX Overland Park, KS	http://www.kcchiefs.com/feedback/
Edwin Pope, Miami Herald	epope@herald.com
Sid Hartman, The Minneapolis Star-Tribune	sports@startribune.com
Ron Borges, HBO Sports/Pro Football Weekly	borges@globe.com
Pete Finney, Times-Picayune	pfinney@timespicayune.com
Vinny DiTrani, Bergen Record	sports@northjersey.com
Paul Zimmerman, Sports Illustrated
Frank Cooney, The Sports Xchange	FCooney@sportsxchange.com
Paul Domowitch, Philadelphia Daily News	pdomo@aol.com
Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette	ebouchette@post-gazette.com
Bernie Miklasz, St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Jerry Magee, San Diego Union Tribune	jerrymagee@uniontrib.com
Ira Miller, The Sports Xchange	miller@sportsxchange.com
Clare Farnsworth, Seattle Post-Intelligencer	clarefarnsworth@seattlepi.com
Ira Kaufman, Tampa Tribune	kaufman@tampatrib.com
David Climer, The Tennessean	dclimer@tennessean.com
David Elfin, Washington Times
Charean Williams, Ft. Worth Star Telegram	cjwilliams@star-telegram.com
Howard Balzer, The Sports Xchange	HBalzer@sportsxchange.com
Jarrett Bell, USA Today	bell@usatoday.com
John Clayton, ESPN/ESPN Magazine
John Czarnecki, FoxSports.com	http://msn.foxsports.com/feedback
Nancy Gay, San Francisco Chronicle	ngay@sfchronicle.com
Dave Goldberg, Associated Press	dgoldberg@ap.org
Peter King, Sports Illustrated
Bob Oates, Los Angeles Times	oatesinla@aol.com

Postseason-less Blues…Revived: The AFC

As many of you know, most fans of the non-playoff bound variety have turned their heads towards two of the most important stages of any NFL “off-season” (is there truly one?):
A) The NFL Draft
B) Free Agency

Every team faces these issues. However, they’re far more apparent for those who aren’t watching film any longer of upcoming opponents.

AFC East

…Miami Dolphins…
After a dreadful 1-15 season (thank you, Brian F. Billick), Dolphins fans can at least enjoy the #1 overall pick AND the addition of the Tuna into South Beach. With an offense that lacks any real firepower outside of the still-recovering Ronnie Brown and Ted Ginn Jr., things still remain bleak. While adding RB Darren McFadden to the backfield remains unlikely, who exactly will be brought into Miami to aid its skill positions on offense. While high expectations will be given to second-year wideout Ted Ginn, it will come down to the front office-driven decision of what to do at the quarterback position – filled currently by QBs Cleo Lemon and John Beck – that dictates the first year of the Parcells regime in Miami.

…New York Jets…
10-6 and a playoff darling spiraled into 4-12 and calls into whether there is a “Mangenius” in New York. With the 6^th pick in the draft, it seems clear that if a certain playmaking Razorback hasn’t slipped, a pass rusher or stand-up 3-4 backer is desperately needed. Not to mention, with their bitter rival Pats picking at #7 right behind them, the Jets have a lot of pre-draft studying to do. While questions surround veterans Laveranues Coles and Jonathan Vilma, we yet again fall into the quarterback trap with the Jets. While a top pick on a QB is highly improbable, it appears two-time winning playoff QB Chad Pennington will be back with the Jets and will compete with third-year QB Kellen Clemens. While neither was far from impressive in ’07, was enough of a stride made by Clemens to secure the lead in the quarterback derby? Methinks not.

…Buffalo Bills…
With Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and Lee Evans in place, the offense seems to have a core it can build around. As for the defense, it was beat up and battered last year, no more than rookie LB Paul Posluzny. While a large target to go over the middle is needed, it’s hard to believe the Bills are set with KR Terrence McGee being their off corner. With the Jenkins brothers (related only by last name) both likely to be drafted in the middle of the first-round, the Bills might be wise to stockpile secondary depth ready to cover the plethora of talented Patriot wideouts.

AFC North

…Cincinnati Bengals…
Fortunately, any talk of trading Chad Johnson died long ago. While the defense has been labeled time and time again as the weaker unit, the entire team has taken several steps back since their fateful playoff loss in 2005 to Pittsburgh. So who’s under the microscope? Marvin Lewis and the entire Bengals coaching staff. Without a strong improvement, don’t expect this regime to stick around much longer in the second city of Ohio.

…Baltimore Ravens…
Point and case: the quarterback position. With Steve McNair headed to the green pastures of retirement, Kyle Boller using up his fourth and fifth last chances and Troy Smith unlikely to be penciled into the starting lineup in Week 1, who will quarterback the Ravens next season? With John Harbaugh lined up as their coach, might a higher-than-usual draft pick may address this issue immediately? However, with an aging roster, is it likely a rookie QB taking snaps is the best medicine?

…Cleveland Browns…
Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn? That’s child’s play. The real question Browns fans are asking is: How long can we rely on RB Jamal Lewis to be our running back? Likely to see another one or two-year tender, Lewis should remain a Brown, but was this season a return to superstar-form or a one-year aberration. Though the backups (Jason Wright and Jerome Harrison) are adequate, the Browns can’t afford to bet wrong on Lewis.

AFC South

…Houston Texans…
8-8 and the only AFC South team not in the playoffs. Despite a strong surge late from backup Sage Rosenfels, QB Matt Schaub was plenty effective when healthy. With a slew of talented draft picks developing (Robinson, Ryans, Williams, and Okoye), the Texans must continue to strengthen their defense. Despite stunting a bit in his growth since his rookie season, CB Dunta Robinson needs a lot of help. The secondary must be addressed, early and often in both the draft and free agency.

AFC West

…Kansas City Chiefs…
Falling down to Earth as hard as any team in the past season, the Chiefs have a glaring issue at QB (Croyle/Huard/???), a lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball, and free agents (Jared Allen) galore. Fortunately, the draft has been good to the Chiefs of late. However, the staple of the Chiefs – especially during their numerous playoff runs – has always been their offensive line. With countless departures, injuries, and underachievers, it’s clear that the line needs to add two or potentially three new starters…FAST.

…Oakland Raiders…
The Lamont Jordan project was a bust, ditto potentially for Dominic Rhodes. Meanwhile, Justin Fargas isn’t a 250-carry back during an entire season. With a name like Darren McFadden on the board, the Raiders may have their back for the future … and then some. Perhaps, they may seek a wideout for 2^nd-year QB JaMarcus Russell (DeSean Jackson perhaps?) Either way, the Raiders are likely to bolster the offensive unit even if it’s on the line.

…Denver Broncos…
Missing out on the playoffs is tough, especially in Denver. The two Super Bowls in Denver occurred nearly a decade ago and the roster seems split between aging veterans (Rod Smith & John Lynch) and promising young stars (DJ Williams & Brandon Marshall). Despite countless attempts in the draft and via Cleveland, the defensive line better get help. Pounded by San Diego twice a year, Denver needs to stop going for the quick-fix and instead must bolster their line depth – alongside a recovering Jarvis Moss (last year’s #1 pick) – as Denver attempts to rebuild the mojo in the Mile High city.

While countless teams seem to be addressing the quarterback issue, it’s clear that there is plenty to offer for every team in the NFL this season: playoff-bound or not.

Remember, the NFL Draft is only 3 months away!

Until next time…

---

Postseason-less Blues…Revived: The NFC

By: Chris Clement

As many of you know, most fans of the non-playoff bound variety have turned their heads towards two of the most important stages of any NFL “off-season” (is there truly one?):
A) The NFL Draft
B) Free Agency

Let’s dissect a few issues surrounding the playoff-less.

NFC East
…Philadelphia Eagles...
-Without any contract issues and a rehabbing knee (2-year recovery, remember!), QB Donovan McNabb seemed to turn a few heads back to his side after winning their last three games in impressive fashion. Despite rumors that he was briefly put on the trade market, it seems highly unlikely the Kevin Kolb era is any closer to starting in Philadelphia.

NFC North
…Detroit Lions…
-Selecting outside of the top 10 for the first time in years, disappointment was still the resounding sentiment in Detroit following a second-half collapse. Finishing near dead-last in every meaningful defensive category, the Lions have invested a ton of cash in their interior defensive line. Whether isolating one of the Jenkins’ CBs in the draft or a free agent, look for the Lions to make a big play for a replacement (finally) for departed CB ‘Dre Bly. None better on the market than potential former-Pat CB Asante Samuel.

…Minnesota Vikings…
-Losing their final 2 games – and thus, missing the playoffs – may have left more than a few doubts in Brad Childress’s mind about current starting QB Tarvaris Jackson. While it seems likely they’ll miss out on one of the three big draft QBs (Matt Ryan, Brian Brohm, Andre’ Woodson), the Vikings have to start deciding who is or isn’t the quarterback of the future.

...Chicago Bears…
-Everyone is talking Rex Grossman and the QB position in Chicago. Yet, two of its biggest free agents are its starting wideouts [Bernard Berrian & Muhsin Muhammad]. Berrian appears ready to cash in big time as an emerging young wideout with big play ability on the market. With a mid-level First Round pick available to the Bears, offensive playmakers seems to be the idea. Quarterback? Receiver? Offensive Line???

NFC South
…Atlanta Falcons…
-Another team with a QB debacle, the Falcons have the aging Warrick Dunn and an underdeveloped Jerious Norwood in their backfield. With a name like Darren McFadden lingering among the likes of QBs Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm, the Falcons need an offensive stud, but who do they like the most?

...Carolina Panthers…
-Underachieving again and again, this has to be the last year John Fox is given to realize his team’s true potential. While playmakers are needed on both sides of the ball, the injury to QB Jake Delhomme further proves this team’s need for a young QB to build their franchise around. However, if a Brohm or Woodson is selected…what does that mean for an aging Delhomme?

…New Orleans Saints…
-With the honeymoon officially over for Sean Payton, Drew Brees and Reggie Bush, 2008 will display whether the Saints are an NFC contender or pretender. After the disastrous free-agent signing of CB Jason David and health issues for Mike “the Predator” McKenzie, the Saints are likely, with the 10th pick, to have top choice at a top-flight CB.

NFC West
…San Francisco 49ers...
-Without their 1st-round pick (#7, which now belongs to the 16-0 Pats of all teams), the 49ers will have to test both the free agent market and the later rounds in the draft to add new talent. While they don’t have a shot at a first-round QB, perhaps competition would be better suited in the 2nd or 3rd round (i.e. John David Booty) rather than overspending on a free-agent like Derek Anderson. With so much money invested in former overall #1 pick QB Alex Smith, the entire position is one of contention.

…St. Louis Rams…
-After spending a recent 1st-rounder on OT Alex Barron, is it too early, especially with the 2nd pick, to focus on Jake Long. Whether Glenn Dorsey is available after the 1st-pick has a lot to do with that. Nevertheless, protecting Marc Bulger and blocking for a healthy Steven Jackson is a top priority this off-season for the Rams. Whether via a veteran backup, depending on LT Orlando Pace staying healthy isn’t a wise option.

…Arizona Cardinals…
-After a 27-touchdown season – playing through multiple injuries mind you – QB Kurt Warner’s career seems far from dead. Yet, a ton of cash and promise is packaged into playboy QB Matt Leinart. The former Heisman winner has had trouble both staying on the field and performing at a consistent level. With a steady #3 QB Tim Rattay a solid backup, could Warner be on the blocks? Or might we have a real interesting training camp controversy brewing in the desert?

…The AFC will receive the treatment later today…

I'm Pulling A Villanova For The Evening

... and going to bed. Here are a few observations at 930pm.

• Quietly, Purdue is making the case for a 5th Big Ten team. In my humble opinion, they will have to win at least one game against the trio Wisconsin (v. 1/26, @ 2/9), Michigan State (v. 2/12) and Indiana (@ 2/19).
• Kent State defeats Akron as expected but in comeback fashion.
• NC State and UVa lose games that they'll regret come March.
• Baylor up 52-50 at A&M with under 10 minutes to go. Are they for real?
• Memphis in a tight one ...

Have a good night!

Trend Data Trumps Big East Passion

Question: Should the Big East remain the 3rd-rated conference according to the RPI, what percentage of their teams will they advance? What does the trend data suggest?

Year	Conference	Fraction of Participants	Percentage (%)	Seed Numbers
2007	PAC-10	6/10	60.0	2,3,3,5,8,11
2006	ACC	4/12	33.3	1,3,4,10
2005	Big XII	6/12	50.0	2,3,3,6,8,9
2004	Big East	6/14	42.9	3,5,5,6,7,8
2003	ACC	4/9	44.4	2,3,6,9

Total Percentage: 26/57 (44.1%)

As evidenced by the trend data, the last two years have been statistical anomalies and deviate from the five-year average by more than 10 percent. Given this data, it would be reasonable to posit that the #3 conference (currently, The Big East) should gain approximately seven bids. Projections above eight bids or below six bids would be considered statistical outliers.

As for seeding, #11 is the lowest seeding to be gained over this five-year period (Stanford, 2007). Perhaps, the Big East seedings (3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 13, 13) from the January 21 NCAA Tournament Projections may have been harsh. Nevertheless, the allocation percentage (50.0%) is more generous than the five-year average of 44.1%.

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - January 21, 2008

Suicide Saturday has come and gone. North Carolina and UCLA not only lost, but succumbed to defeat on their home courts against who were not members of the 65-team field last week.

Along the 3rd seed line, Texas A&M and Marquette lost two double-digit games this week, bringing them down at least one tier. Reaping the benefits are Indiana and Xavier who simply took care of business. Another high riser is Kansas State who affirmed last week’s road victory against Oklahoma with a lopsided triumph against Texas A&M.

Speaking of Oklahoma, we are now projecting that they will be out of the mix given that Blake Griffin will be out for four weeks. Despite a win at home against Texas Tech without Griffin’s services, the Sooners are too thin to compete in the Big XII with a 7-deep squad. If they happen to win half of those games, that will go a long way in reconsidering the Sooners case for an at-large bid.

Syracuse (giving up 50+ in the second half at home to Villanova) and Arkansas (two losses to the SEC East cellar dwellers) did nothing to help their status and are now on the outside looking in. Syracuse’s Big Monday affair tonight at Georgetown will go a long way in determining which tournament they’ll be playing in March.

In the Mountain West, we have decided to switch allegiance to San Diego State for now due to their spotless conference and a win over Utah. In the WAC, many are predicting Utah State, but we are sticking with New Mexico State. Blue-chip recruit Herb Pope (#31 according to Rivals.com) finally stepping onto the hardwood (5 pts, 9 reb, 4 ast, 6 TOs in 23 minutes) in a win versus Louisiana Tech cements that decision.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Memphis (C-USA), Kansas (Big XII), UCLA (PAC-10), North Carolina (ACC)
2: Duke, Tennessee (SEC), Michigan State (Big Ten), Washington State
3: Georgetown (Big East), Texas, Indiana, Xavier (A-10)
4: Drake (MVC), Butler (Horizon), Dayton, Texas A&M
5: Marquette, Wisconsin, Gonzaga (WCC), Kansas State
6: Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Stanford, Pittsburgh
7: Rhode Island, Arizona, Ohio State, Louisville
8: Clemson, St. Mary’s, Arizona State, Kent State (MAC)
9: UMass, West Virginia, Miami-FL, Florida
10: USC, Illinois State, San Diego State (MWC), South Alabama (Sun Belt)
11: George Mason (Colonial), Baylor, Cleveland State, Villanova
12: Davidson (Southern), Sam Houston State (Southland), Mississippi State, Virginia
13: Providence, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Notre Dame, Creighton
14: Cal State Northridge (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC), Winthrop (Big South), Hampton (MEAC)
15: Bucknell (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Yale (Ivy), IUPUI (Summit)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Northern Arizona (Big Sky), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: USC, San Diego State, Villanova, Mississippi State, Providence, Creighton, Cal State Northridge, Bucknell, Northern Arizona, Alabama State
OUT: Oklahoma, Syracuse, Arkansas, Oregon, Utah, Boston College, UC-Santa Barbara, Holy Cross, Montana, Jackson State

Last Four In: Virginia, Providence, Notre Dame, Creighton
Last Four Out: Oregon, Boston College, Oklahoma, NC State
Next Four Out: Arkansas, Akron, Maryland, UConn

Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10 – UCLA, Washington State, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, USC
ACC: 5/12 – North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami-FL, Virginia
Big East: 8/16 –Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova, Providence, Notre Dame
Big XII: 5/12 – Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Kansas State, Baylor
SEC: 5/12 – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Florida, Mississippi State
Big Ten: 4/11 – Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Missouri Valley: 3/10 – Drake, Illinois State, Creighton
A-10: 4/14 – Dayton, Rhode Island, Xavier, UMass
Horizon: 2/10 – Butler, Cleveland State
West Coast: 2/10 – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

5 Questions for Championship Sunday in the NFL

Who will be hoisting the conference championship trophies today???
Credit: USAToday.com

1) Given the success of AJ Feeley and Kyle Boller against seemingly undaunted New England, can Billy Volek's relative anonymity be a boon to the Chargers should the QB be forced into duty?

2) Will Sunday evening’s NFC title tilt be the coldest game in Playoff history?

3) Will Antonio Cromartie’s presence as a starter in the Chargers secondary, which he wasn’t in Week 2, play a major role in the outcome of the AFC Championship?

4) Will the Giants depleted secondary be able to contain Donald Driver in the flat, Greg Jennings along the sidelines, and the wizardry of the forever-young Brett Favre?

5) Seriously, how many personal fouls are you tabbing Rodney Harrison for?

Scoring Recommendations for Consideration by the Bracketology Community

Scoring Recommendations for Consideration by the Bracketology Community

Thanks to Brian at the Bracket Project, we have the Bracket Matrix. This bracket clearinghouse not only updates bracket projections on a regular basis and lists links and names of bracketologists ranging from experts like Joe Lunardi (who finished 30th … out of 30 in 2007) to your slightly better Joe with considerably less pub, but it also averages the projected seed. At the end of the season, the final bracket projections are evaluated based on three metrics:

* Teams picked correctly
* Teams seeded correctly
* Teams seeded within one of NCAA seed

Last year, Gary Parrish from CBS Sportsline informally suggested giving one point for each accomplished metric. Nevertheless, at present, there is no gold standard for scoring bracket projections.

With that said, here are my scoring recommendations.

1. Teams picked correctly – Among the three metrics, this is the most important. Additionally, all bracketologists should know the 31 automatic bids by 5pm Eastern Time. Given this premise, I recommend that we give three points for each of the 34 at-large bids that are picked correctly.
2. Teams seeded correctly – Right beneath selecting the correct at-large teams is picking the exact seeds of those teams. Therefore, let’s give two points for picking the exact seeds.
3. Teams seeded within one seed of NCAA seed – Though important, this is the least important of the metrics and is largely present to accommodate the near-misses of bracketologists. You see the trend … one point for accurately placing teams within one NCAA seed.

Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Conference Championships

Just when you thought regular season glory was good enough, playoff spreads bite you in the butt. Anyone can go 3-1 picking games straight up, but 1-3 via the spread results in wasting the almighty dollar. Fortunately, less teams equals higher stakes. Not to mention, with the Pats still around, there are higher and higher spreads to tackle.

Let’s roll!

AFC Championship Game:
San Diego @ New England [-14]












Don’t even get me started on how many injuries the NFL’s
dirtiest player, "accidental cheater" Rodney Harrison, might
cause on pile-ups against several of the banged-up Bolts.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Combined, they’re enjoying winning streaks of 25 games (17 for the Pats, 8 for the Bolts). Though, sadly, I’ve come to the all-too-true conclusion that this New England team is completely unbeatable. Yep, even as a die-hard Jet fan and SpyGate preacher, I finally have lost all hope and given in to the supremacy that emanates from Foxboro. In fact, the 2007 edition of the Patriots may end up being the greatest NFL and sports team ever. So, do you think I’m honestly gonna take Phillip Rivers/Billy Volek over Tom Brady? Norv Turner over Bill Belichick? Not a chance, folks. I just can’t bank on this team, even with talent so rich from the likes of Chambers, Merriman, Gates, Cromartie and a guy named LT. Call me a pessimist, depressed, or simply pragmatic, but the point remains: The Chargers don’t stand a chance. They won’t get to Brady nearly enough and won’t make the key plays (i.e. stopping Faulk on the screen, Welker in the flat, Moss deep, Donte on the screen) on defense to allow their own injury-infested offense to keep up. Sorry haters, the Pats do it to us again in blowout fashion as they continue their march to immortality.

NFC Championship Game:
New York @ Green Bay [-7]













Some weather reports have the negatives winning out for the game-time temperatures.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Straight up, you know I’m granting the request of every Giant fan and taking the Packers. As for the spread, perhaps it’s a bit too large despite homefield advantage and the extra week of rest for the Pack. Personally, I am already sick over the media hype of Favre vs. Brady. The Swansong vs. Perfection. A far more fascinating story has taken place the last three weeks concerning the team many “experts” (who me?) pegged for 4th place in the NFC East, the road-warrior Giants. The same team who, after their now wise Week 17 throwdown against those aforementioned unbeatable Pats, just might get another shot at Brady and company in Super Bowl XLII. Clearly, it seems that Eli/Coughlin are a far stronger tandem WITHOUT Tiki "Remember Me?" Barber. Despite all the good mojo coming out of NYC, I’m backing the all-too-feel-good story of Favre, the phenom Ryan Grant’s continuous surge, Greg Jennings’ affinity for the big play and a immensely talented duo of cornerbacks for the outright W. The Pack win and cover, in a less than exciting NFC Championship Game tilt. You’re welcome Giants fans.

We’ll return in a little under two weeks with staff picks on Super Bowl XLII. After a rather strong staff showing for the BCS Title game (not to mention nearly perfect predictions with Colts/Bears in Super Bowl XLI), we look forward to yet another challenge!

Until next time…

NFC Championship Game Preview: New York Giants at Green Bay

New York Do’s and Don’t’s – Chris Clement

Do balance the offensive game-plan as brilliantly as you have the previous two playoff match-ups. Eli went 12-18 in the passing game while Jacobs (14 carries) and Bradshaw (6 carries) shared duties in the rush game. While 163 yards through the air and 88 on the ground will not be enough against Green Bay’s red-hot attack, balancing the equation will allow the Giants to control the clock…which keeps Favre and company off the field for as long as possible.

Do open up the playbook early and often. Winning without targeting the big play to Plaxico isn’t likely to work for a second-straight week. Not to mention, it’s highly unlikely that All-Pro caliber cornerbacks Al Harris & Charles Woodson won’t make similar mistakes to what Cowboys defenders did. As they did by flying all over the field last weekend against the Seahawks, the Packers may overplay a few deep routes. Since the Pack are completely capable of putting up 30+ in rough weather, the Giants may need to match touchdown-for-touchdown in the first half.

Do thank the front office for allowing Tom Coughlin another year with the team. The absence of Tiki Barber and the relatively capable handling of the Strahan “holdout” look more than steady with the proper perspective. Ditto with a slew of injuries, a shaky Eli, and the prospects of play vs. sit in Week 17 against the Pats. I never thought I would say this, but the Giants were right to see Tiki leave and Tom stay.

Don’t allow R.W. McQuarters to see too much of Greg Jennings. White-hot in the regular season and now the playoffs, Jennings is an 80-yard touchdown reception threat every time a drive starts for the Packers. With Sam Madison, Kevin Dockery, and now Aaron Ross banged up, a lot will be asked of McQuarters. Pairing him with the likes of free agent rookie (from Howard University, of all places) Geoffrey Pope may be a glaring weakness that Favre tries to expose immediately. This spells even more responsibility for the linebackers, safeties, and the entire defensive coaching staff. Good luck.

Don’t fear Ryan Grant. As rookies will show you often, one minute they’ve fumbled their first two meaningful snaps and the next they have 201 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Grant’s numbers over the last eleven weeks surpass everyone, including LT. While running at home, potentially in the muck, is tempting to Grant, the Giants survived a dominant Marion Barber, III (100+ yards in the first half) and shut down the bruising back in the second half. While Grant is a different runner, the results must be similar this weekend.

Don’t stop believing. I firmly believe the Giants felt they would beat the Patriots. Ditto with the Bucs and Cowboys. Now, while every team must exude confidence in order to win, the Giants are basking in it. Don’t stop that train of thought. Not even for a second.

Green Bay Do’s and Don’t’s – Armin Mohajeri

Do let Brett Favre do what he does best and sling the rock long. Go for some big plays early. Donald Driver, Gregg Jennings and James Jones can eat the Giants secondary alive. There is nothing to fear about the Giants secondary other than the fact that they're been playing better than they truly are during the run the team has made. A couple of early TD passes by Favre should send the Giants secondary into a downward spiral as they come back to earth.

Do have confidence in your DBs. Woodson and Harris can shut down Plaxico and Amani. This is a match up of veteran WRs against veteran CBs. The veteran CBs won't succumb as easily to precise route running. With Nick Collins and Atari Bigby stepping up this season, they can work their switches in coverage and run a variation of the Cover 2 with the luxury of a linebacker covering TE Kevin Boss (who isn't going to win any foot races). This will allow the Packers front seven to go after Eli.

Do it for Brett. As cheesy as it sounds (and no, John Madden is not pushing me to say this), the Packers have to dedicate themselves to getting their captain back to the Super Bowl. Mark Schlereth said it best during an interview: one of the great motivating factors for his two Super Bowl rings with the Broncos was the fact that the team pulled together and said, "If we can't do it for ourselves, let's do it for John." Brett Favre has accomplished so much; he has dealt with so much adversity; he has suffered so much pain. Yet, he gets out there on the field and performs. He may already have a ring, but he deserves a shot to earn another.

Don't forget the RBs that got you here. Ryan Grant has proven to be a big-play back. He is as critical to the success of the Packers as any player on that squad this season. While the big plays should be flowing, the meat of the game should be using Grant (and Brandon Jackson who's had a few nice plays of late) to wear down the Giants front seven. Wearing down Strahan, Umenyiora and Tuck by constantly running at them will go a long way towards keeping them off Favre late in the game. Of course, unless there's some sort of sack record that Favre feels Strahan needs to break. Then, all bets are off.

Don't let Eli Manning beat you. The Cowboys had the right idea, though they still lost in the end. Go after Eli. Knock him down. It's highly doubtful that Eli will be able to pull off last second heroics if he's hearing footsteps. This will be the test to see whether Eli is maturing, or if he's the same old Eli that eventually folds under the pressure when his team needs him the most. Defensive Coordinator Bob Sanders should send two LBs to help Aaron Kampman in the pass rush. Keep an eye on Brady Poppinga, a former DE who the Giants should not forget.

Don't believe the hype. The Packers are the better team. However, the second they buy into the Giants and their hot play, the game is over. The Packers should take note of the Giants game against the Cowboys. The Cowboys played down to the Giants' level. This is how Cinderella teams are born. If they can overlook the hype and play the Giants for the team they are, the Packers shouldn't have too much problem putting them away. Be confident, yet not over-confident. However, this is much easier said than done.

Key Matchups - Sum Mehrnama

When New York has the ball

RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw vs. LBs Nick Barnett and AJ Hawk

Normally this paragraph would be about establishing and/or stopping the run. However, after witnessing the intriguing idea to lineup Jacobs and Bradshaw as wide receivers on numerous occasions, this is now a paragraph about the passing game. With Jeremy Shockey out, the Giants needed something different in their offense. Thus we had everyone utter a collective gasp of awe when Brandon Jacobs lined up wide and caught a pass as a TE or WR would normally catch. Barnett and Hawk were the better pass-defending LBs for the Packers this year, and they’ll need to be ready for the Giants duo to run underneath receiving routes. If they aren’t ready, then Eli Manning will hit some easy passes to his RBs and will hit his stride early.

When Green Bay has the ball

WR Donald Driver vs. the Entire Giants Secondary

Somehow, someway, the Giants secondary played better on Sunday after Aaron Ross exited the game and left them with exactly zero of their starting CBs in the game. Perhaps Ross’ heroics in using his injuried shoulder to bring down Marion Barber, III inspired his teammates, or perhaps it was the sense of urgency. Regardless, the secondary stepped up at that point (and also received a huge assist from the front-seven pressuring Romo). Unfortunately for the Giants, I think the injuries will leave their secondary exposed this weekend and that spells out an amazing opportunity for Donald Driver. New York’s corners will tire quickly and Driver should be able to capitalize for a career day … unless they manage to re-create that sense of team that carried them through the second half at Dallas. If that happens, then Driver will have to serve as a decoy in order to free-up Greg Jennings.

Intangibles – Sum Mehrnama

Snow

As cliché as it is, the weather is a huge intangible for this Sunday’s game in Green Bay. Last week, the frozen tundra resulted in the sack-happy Seahawks managing only one sack (which should’ve just been ruled a tackle for no gain). This week that same snow will require Steve Spagnuolo to devise some ingenious method of pressuring Brett Favre. Slippery conditions will slow down Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan and Kawika Mitchell as they rush the corners. Furthermore, Green Bay knows how to handle the snow. New York’s experience in this weather is greatly limited … in fact, the Giants may want to travel to the greater Boston area to practice in the 20 inches of snow they have up there.

Calm Quarterbacking

Both signal-callers have been prone to succumbing and thriving off of emotion during their careers. Eli Manning has become more accustomed to letting his emotions rattle him than inspire him, while Brett Favre (neé Madden) has both won and lost games due to emotional swings. This outcome of this game depends heavily upon which quarterback is more able to rely on calm and logical decision-making. The instant either of them becomes flustered, a mistake will be imminent. Favre returned to greatness this season by buying into a systematic game-plan rather than relying on his gun-slinging past. The Giants proved that they can beat a quarterback who resorts to gun-slinging (cough*Romo*cough). Eli, on the other hand, has seemingly stolen Peyton’s mojo the past three weeks and become, dare I say it, the better Manning. But we’ve seen his meltdowns far too often to expect them to be gone for good. In a sport that is dominated by clichéd mantras, it’s no surprise that these quarterbacks need to remember that slow and steady wins the race.

Final Predictions

Armin: New York wins, 23 – 20

Clement: Green Bay wins, 33 – 24

Summy: Green Bay wins, 24 – 21

AFC Championship Game Preview - San Diego at New England

San Diego Do's & Don't’s – Armin Mohajeri

Do go with what's been working and Don't make it complicated. The team is on an 8 game winning streak, and they're coming off a win against arguably the second best team in the league. The formula: Let the defense own the game giving the offense enough opportunities to make the big plays that devastate the opposing defense. As much talent as the team has on offense, the defense is what has kept this team on track to make it to the AFC Championship.

Do send the linebackers after Brady. The Bolts already faced one of the best offensive lines in football. The scheme the Colts run is designed to keep Peyton off his back. The fact that the Bolts front seven was able to break that line down, especially at crucial moments, gives them some hope. The Pats deploy a similar line scheme (I call it Quality over Quantity of Time and Space) built for a QB that can make quick reads. For Merriman, Philips and Co. to get to Brady, they will have to rely on their amazing athletic ability to get that first step that will force Brady out of his game.

Do drop to the ground after making a game clinching interception. No repeats of the Marlon McCree interception, then fumble that put the Patriots back in the game in last year's match up. All humor aside, the Chargers defense is a young athletic defense, and if they can translate their athletic ability into a couple of turnovers, the Bolts could be sitting pretty at the end of this contest.

Don't let the injuries get you down. Rivers and Tomlinson could be out (or playing a limited amount). The Bolts should remain confident in Billy Volek and Michael Turner. Volek proved when he was with Tennessee, that he can throw the rock effectively if it comes to a passing game. The question is moreso in regards to his timing with the first team receivers. Michael Turner is one of the top 2 or 3 backup RBs in the league. He's capable of carrying the load for the Bolts.

Don't hold back on offense. Attack the Patriots defense. Facing an offense like New England's, where they practically score at will, you must look to hit the Pats at their weakest spot. Though it is strange to use the term "weak" when referring to the Pats defense, it is the weakest point on a dominant team. Regardless of if Rivers is back at the helm, or if Volek is running the show, the Bolts need to get the ball in the air. The team must go in for the kill.

Don't beat yourselves. It's no secret that the 2007 Patriots are one of the all time great teams. It's going to take a stroke of luck and magic to pull off the victory here. The mistakes must be limited, or else we're going to get another LT tirade about how the Patriots are cheaters.

New England Do’s and Don’t’s – Sum Mehrnama

Do trust every single player you have on offense. From Randy Moss to Kevin Faulk to Heath Evans and even to that Brady-guy who slings the football, this is a line-up that has gelled like no other. The play-action pass against Jacksonville, when Brady had his back to the defense for a good second, says it all. Every offensive player knows where each of his teammates are at all times.

Do dig up L.T.’s whining from last year’s playoffs for the bulletin board. No team rises to the defense of its coach like the Patriots do, and I don’t mean via the airwaves. The Pats defend Belichick’s honor on the field of play. If it wasn’t for “spygate” then this team would’ve had a loss or two on its record. So dig up L.T. calling your coach “classless.” Or just wait for Philip Rivers to open his big mouth.

Do play physical on both sides of the ball. The Chargers got the snot knocked out of them all game last week (granted, they did some snot-knocking of their own too). While they are a solid physical team, there’s only so much punishment a body can take. Hard tackles when you’re on defense will tire them out that much quicker than normal.

Don’t expect their defense to under perform, like the Jags did. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Philips will come after Brady with an intense passion, and should get a solid number of knockdowns and sacks. In the secondary, Antonio Cromartie has proven his studliness twice against the Colts and it’s no fluke, the boy can play, play fast, and play hard. Bring your A+ game on offense, or go home.

Don’t rely on your defense. At times, the unit looked pathetic against the Jags offensive unit, particularly when David Garrard threw the ball. If the good Philip Rivers shows up, this will be a problem again. Your linebackers are old, Rodney Harrison will get at least one or two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties called against him, and your cornerbacks leave much to be desired. Bottom line: score at least 30 points.

Don’t believe your own hype. For 17 games, you’ve held the proper cliché mantras of “one game at a time” and “we win as a team.” This is not the time to lose that focus and attitude, but I fear it may have started happening. Tom Brady, ever the politician in post-game interviews, might have slipped when he jokingly requested an Academy Award for his brilliant acting job on the aforementioned play-action TD pass to Wes Welker. Sure, it was a tiny comment, and sure it was in jest … but he’s rarely, if ever, publicly praised himself for anything this season. Why start now?

Key Matchups – Chris Clement

When San Diego has the Ball

TE Antonio Gates vs. SS Rodney Harrison

Hobbled with a bum ankle, Gates still amassed over 75 receptions, nearly 1,000 yards, and 9 TDs during another Pro Bowl season. Despite being whisper quiet in Indy, Gates will be relied upon as heavily as his fractured toe will allow. Enter ball-hawking and cheap-shoting safety Rodney Harrison. Self-proclaimed “victim” while on the field to countless penalties, Harrison is as dirty – and effective – a safety in the NFL. When it counts, it’s likely he’ll have his hands on or around the football. Catching a TD late in the blowout back in Week 2, Antonio will need a Winslow Sr.-esque performance if the Bolts wish to keep this game close. Word to the wise, Antonio: don’t get caught in the bottom of the pile with your ankle exposed around good ol’ Rodney.

When New England has the Ball

RB Kevin Faulk vs. Chargers LBs

Often forgotten by the media, teams don’t game-plan to avoid Kevin Faulk. Instead, the reality is that Faulk is as slippery and sneaky a back in the NFL. Never one to pound it 20-plus times, Faulk has excelled as a do-everything back in the Patriot system. Whether catching screens, slants/hitches past a blitz, or taking handoffs around the corner…Faulk is lethal on any down, whether second and short or third and long. While many people believe Shawn Merriman, Stephen Cooper, and Shaun Phillips must establish constant and consistent pressure on Tom Brady (good luck) or watch for Ben Watson (a time-slot hit at TE), it may be more important to monitor what Faulk does, even if he sees less than 50% of the snaps. As solid as second-year back Laurence Maroney has been as of late, Faulk is the Patriot runner the Bolts should fear the most.

Intangibles – Chris Clement

Streaks

By now we all know that the Pats have won 17 out of 17 games this season (take THAT Mercury Morris!). What we may not know is that the Chargers are winners of 8 in a row and 12 out of their last 16. Mighty impressive, but it pales in comparison to perfection. In fact, due in large part to a down year in the AFC West, many people (including myself) questioned exactly who San Diego had beaten. However, a pair of victories over the Titans and a road win in Indy (which San Diego has an affinity towards doing) changed any previous perceptions. Meanwhile, we can venture back to Week 2 (Pats dominated following SpyGate 38-14) as perhaps the week that the road to unbridled dominance began. It seems light years ago, back during the days of Marty-Ball, when the Bolts decimated the Pats in Foxboro. A sort of informal coming out party took place that day. That also may have been the last time Tom Brady didn't have a completion percentage in the high 80s. One way or another, Sunday afternoon will witness the death and the birth of a new set of streaks. Highlighted by either the Pats being the first to see 18-0…or the Chargers, behind Norv Turner of all coaches (3-1 in the playoffs, mind you), allowing the Dolphins to sip their bitter champagne as they remain the sole undefeated Super Bowl champions.

Gravity

What goes up must eventually come down. Thanks Isaac Newton, but we've all heard it before when it comes to sports. Even the Bulls lost two games in the NBA Finals during their 72-win season. Yet, New England has been impervious to any scientific theories or rational laws this season. In fact, even when the score is tied or the Pats face a 12-point deficit late in the 3rd quarter, all appears fine and dandy on the sideline. It's not important the Chargers start well (ala Baltimore, New York, and Jacksonville), it's imperative they start and finish well. Going up 7-0 doesn't faze New England. Especially when they tie it up 7-7 on their next drive. You want to scare the Pats? Stop them on their first drive and then YOU score. Then stop them again. Good luck on that accord. The same mistakes made by Peyton last weekend, at home no less, cannot be expected from Brady. Interestingly enough, has Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding ever made a kick with anything or value on the line? Methinks not. While what goes up must eventually come down, it doesn't appear likely that will happen this season to the all-mighty Patriots.

Final Predictions

Armin: New England wins, 31 – 20

Clement: New England wins, 42 – 23

Summy: New England wins, 38 – 24

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections -- January 14, 2008

OJ Mayo may be playing in March ... in the NIT!

Credit: Hoops USA

Another week. Another week of domination by the top four teams in the nation. Michigan State dropped an ugly game to Big Ten strugglers Iowa and Texas lost to an upstart Missouri squad. As a result, Texas slipped to the 10th overall ranking and Washington State stepped into the 2-line despite falling to UCLA.

In this week’s edition of “My Patience Ran Out”, enter USC. If the Selection Committee invites seven PAC-10 teams, then I like Trojans’ chances, but history shows that they will not. As for the Trojans, they possess all the talent in the world, yet Tim Floyd fails in developing contributors off the bench. Additionally, OJ Mayo has yet to discover that he is neither Dwyane Wade nor Kobe Bryant, and that he must pass the ball out of the double team. The result is frustration and diminishing returns from Davon Jefferson and Taj Gibson.

I have also run out of patience with Southern Illinois, who continue to lose games in heartbreaking fashion. A good Salukis squad plays suffocating ‘D’ and efficient ‘O’, leaving the opposition’s heart to be chopped up in many pieces long before the shot clock turns off. One out of two won’t get the job done in an ultra-balanced Missouri Valley Conference.

Two teams that restored some faith were Louisville and Oregon. While neither team is where they should be, one is as healthy as it’s been all year and the other is playing its best basketball of the season.

For the final four spots, it was quite the tussle. West Virginia and Baylor won games that they had to in order to remain in the field of 65, while Cleveland State debuted as a 13 seed. As for the 65th spot, Boston College laid an egg early in the week, but responded with a 112-point effort against Wake Forest. As a result, that froze the aforementioned Trojans out. Providence and UConn will be fighting all season to show their worth, and San Diego State will battle a host of NIT-worthy teams in the Mountain West for a possible at-large berth.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com. As always, feel free to comment on the board.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10), Kansas (Big XII)

2: Duke, Michigan State (Big Ten), Georgetown (Big East), Washington State
3: Tennessee (SEC), Texas, Texas A&M, Marquette

4: Butler (Horizon), Dayton (A-10), Vanderbilt, Indiana
5: Rhode Island, Ole Miss, Drake (MVC), Wisconsin
6: Clemson, Xavier, Arizona, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: Ohio State, Oklahoma, Stanford, Louisville
8: Virginia, Pittsburgh, Kent State (MAC), St. Mary’s
9: Syracuse, Miami-FL, Arizona State, Kansas State
10: Arkansas, Notre Dame, Oregon, Florida
11: South Alabama (Sun Belt), Illinois State, George Mason (Colonial), UMass
12: Sam Houston State (Southland), Utah (MWC), West Virginia, Baylor
13: Cleveland State, Davidson (Southern), Boston College, Siena (Metro Atlantic)

14: UC-Santa Barbara (Big West), Winthrop (Big South), New Mexico State (WAC), Hampton (MEAC)

15: Holy Cross (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Yale (Ivy), IUPUI (Summit)

16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Montana (Big Sky), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Jackson State (SWAC)

IN: Oregon, Florida, South Alabama, Illinois State, Cleveland State, IUPUI, Jackson State
OUT: Southern California, Villanova, Valparaiso, Southern Illinois, New Orleans Oakland, Grambling State

Last Four In: West Virginia, Baylor, Cleveland State, Boston College
Last Four Out: Southern California, Providence, San Diego State, UConn

Next Four Out: Minnesota, Akron, Creighton, California

Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10 – UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, Stanford, Arizona State, Oregon

ACC: 6/12 – North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Virginia, Miami-FL, Boston College

Big XII: 6/12 – Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor

Big East: 7/16 –Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Notre Dame, West Virginia

SEC: 5/12 – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Florida
Big Ten: 4/11 – Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State

A-10: 4/14 – Dayton, Rhode Island, Xavier, UMass

Missouri Valley: 2/10 – Drake, Illinois State
Horizon: 2/10 – Butler, Cleveland State

West Coast: 2/10 – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

Saturday’s College Basketball Wrap-Up

We’ll start at the top with North Carolina. As expected, they took care of business, but 43-13 is an embarrassing halftime scoreline to swallow for in-state rival North Carolina State. While giving praise to the Tar Heels for their play, ESPN’s Jay Bilas also suggested that the Wolfpack have major chemistry issues. Having viewed as much as I can handle with a full slate of competitive games on the docket, Bilas’s conjecture seems correct. Of course, it’s easy to be down to North Carolina by 30 points at the interval when they are rolling on all cylinders and the opposition settles for long-distance heaves.

Anyone who did not see the finish to the UConn-Georgetown game may be thinking that there’s another Hibbert on the Hoyas roster, because the 7’2” center nailed a three-pointer with less than five seconds in regulation to earn the home team a 72-69 triumph at the Verizon Center. Right now, I am kicking myself for not getting tickets when I could have to see the Hibbert/Thabeet showdown.

Vanderbilt got knocked from the ranks of the unbeatens at Rupp Arena. Welcome to traveling on the road in the SEC.

Texas got scorched by Missouri. While receiving solid production from their big three – DJ Augustin, Damion James and AJ Abrams – the rest of the team contributed a whopping 19 points and 16 rebounds. This will have to change if Texas wants to remain in 2-seed consideration come Selection Sunday.

Another victim of the shock was none other than Michigan State. Who knew that you could beat a legitimate top 10 opponent by shooting 27.5% from the field and miss 13 free throws? Iowa head coach Todd Lickliter must have preached ball security, because committing eight turnovers versus eighteen for the Spartans is what won the game for the Hawkeyes.

At Westwood, UCLA outlasted Washington State. It was a story of two games – the first 38 minutes where WASU failed to make a basket and the second when they knocked down 7 straight three-pointers. Yes, seven.

Outside of the BCS conferences, Drake and Illinois State continue to be the pacesetters in the Missouri Valley. At some point, I expect at least one member of the old guard – Southern Illinois, Creighton, Northern Iowa, Wichita State – to wake up.

In the Colonial, Delaware (you mean that was picked 12th by the foremost expert on the conference?) is 5-0 in conference play and have been a different team since one game after a number of transfers joined the squad. This week, the Blue Hens required overtime in wins against George Mason and Old Dominion.

I could dabble with the goings-on of other conferences, but they will get their fair share of love in the bracket projections that will be available tomorrow.

2007 NFL Rookie Year End Report

It's January. The month named after the two-headed Greek god Janus. One head looked back on the year, one head looked forward. As we look back on the rookies of the 2007 NFL season, this also marks the point where we will look ahead, and get the rookie scouting and mock drafts of the 2008 NFL season started. Below are the Top 10 Offensive and Defensive Rookies, a list of the three teams that fared the best in the 2007 draft, and the 2007 PHSports NFL All-Rookie Team.

Top 10 Offensive Rookies:

1. Adrian Peterson, RB – Minnesota Vikings
2. Joe Thomas, OT – Cleveland Browns
3. Marshawn Lynch, RB – Buffalo Bills
4. Dwayne Bowe, WR – Kansas City Chiefs
5. Tony Ugoh, OT – Indianapolis Colts
6. Selvin Young, RB – Denver Broncos
7. Mason Crosby, K – Green Bay Packers
8. Nick Folk, K – Dallas Cowboys
9. Calvin Johnson, WR Detroit Lions
10. James Jones, WR – Green Bay Packers


Top 10 Defensive Rookies:

1. Patrick Willis, LB – San Francisco 49ers
2. David Harris, LB – New York Jets
3. Jon Beason, LB – Carolina Panthers
4. Darrelle Revis, CB – New York Jets
5. LaRon Landry, S – Washington Redskins
6. Reggie Nelson, S – Jacksonville Jaguars
7. Gerald Alexander, S – Detroit Lions
8. Leon Hall, CB – Cincinnati Bengals
9. Tanard Jackson, S – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
10. Gaines Adams, DE – Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Top 3 Rookie Squads (By Team):

1) Minnesota Vikings: RB Adrian Peterson, WR Sidney Rice, CB Marcus McCauley, DE Brian Robison, WR/KR Aundrae Allison
2) Tampa Bay: DE Gaines Adams, G Arron Sears, S Tanard Jackson, DT Greg Peterson
3) New York Jets: CB Darrelle Revis, MLB David Harris


2007 PHSports NFL All-Rookie Team:

QB: Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills – While he did not put up impressive numbers, Edwards played a lot more than any other rookie QB in the league. He completed 56% of his passes (151/269) for 1630 yards. He threw 7 touchdown passes and 8 interceptions. He did, however, lead the Bills to wins in weeks 13 and 14. He showed flashes during those games, playing nearly mistake free in one, and throwing four TD passes in the other. (Backup: Troy Smith, Baltimore Ravens)

RB: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings & Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills – Easily the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Adrian Peterson nearly turned the league upside down. By mid-season he was on pace to go over 2000 yards, but recovery from a sprained knee put those hopes to rest. He still ended up with 1341 yards and 12 touchdowns. He broke the single-game rushing record by racking up 296 yards against San Diego (his second 200+ yard 3 TD performance on the season). Marshawn Lynch racked up 1115 yards rushing with 7 TDs in 13 games. He also threw a TD pass in a dominant performance versus the Bengals. Drafted among questions about too many similarities between Lynch and his predecessor Willis McGahee, Lynch did more than enough as a rookie to fill those shoes. (Backup: Selvin Young, Denver Broncos)

WR: Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs & Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions – Bowe, by far the top rookie WR in the league, had 70 receptions for 995 yards and 5 TDs. He proved to be a big play threat that the Chiefs have sorely lacked to go along with Gonzo. Calvin Johnson somewhat proved that he is a big play threat for the Lions. While he didn’t have the most impressive season (47 catches, 756 yards, 4 TDs), he showed flashes. He also averaged ~16 yards per catch, which you don’t usually get from a receiver of his stature. (Backups: James Jones, Green Bay Packers; Anthony Gonzalez, Indianapolis Colts)

TE: Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – Miller finished with a decent campaign in 2007. He had 44 catches for 444 yards and 3 TDs. The key to his performance came late in the season when JaMarcus Russell showed some comfort in throwing the ball Miller’s way. (Backup: Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears)

C: Samson Satele, Miami Dolphins – It didn’t take long for Satele to settle in at center and become the anchor of the line, making the pre-snap line calls. Satele started every game for the Fins, and looks like he could anchor the line for years.

G: Arron Sears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Ben Grubbs, Baltimore Ravens – Aaron Sears is another rookie lineman who started from the onset of the season. He was arguably Tampa’s best offensive lineman this season. When Grubbs got his shot, he was an integral part of paving the way for Willis McGahee to rush for 1200+ yards. (Backup: Justin Blalock, Atlanta Falcons)

T: Joe Thomas, Cleveland Browns & Tony Ugoh, Indianapolis Colts – Thomas had a great year protecting Derek Anderson’s blindside, and opening holes for Jamal Lewis. He played every snap for an offense that had a coming out year. Derek Anderson was only sacked 14 times, while playing all 16 games. Tony Ugoh did something rare, by joining the Super Bowl champs, starting as a rookie and protecting the blind-side of their franchise QB all season. Some credit the scheme that has been in place for what seems like an eternity in Indy. However, Ugoh did more than earn his keep this season. (Backups: Marshal Yanda, Baltimore Ravens; Joe Staley, San Francisco 49ers; Levi Brown, Arizona Cardinals)

DT: Amobi Okoye, Houston Texans & Ed Johnson, Indianapolis Colts – Okoye hit his stride early in the season, amassing 5.5 sacks, penetrating offensive backfields regularly. While many noticed that he hit the rookie wall in the second half of the season, many forget that he came into the NFL as a 19 year-old. Johnson, an undrafted rookie, was a season-long starter for the Colts. He’s the run-stuffing type who was the one massive body among an undersized defensive line, solidifying the Colts run defense. (Backups: Adam Carriker, St. Louis Rams; Clifton Ryan, St. Louis Rams)

DE: Gaines Adams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers & Tim Crowder, Denver Broncos – Gaines Adams proved, in a weak year for ends, why he was the top DE off the board. He led all rookie defensive ends with 6 sacks. For the Broncos, losing Jarvis Moss for the season was a letdown. However, Tim Crowder filled in and posted 4.5 sacks. (Backups: Jay Richardson, Oakland Raiders; Brian Robinson, Minnesota Vikings)

MLB: Patrick Willis, San Francisco 49ers – Willis led the NFL with 174 tackles. He also tallied four sacks and two forced fumbles. Against Tampa Bay he had 20 tackles, 2 sacks, and forced a fumble. (Backup: Jyles Tucker, San Diego Chargers)

OLB: David Harris, New York Jets & Jon Beason, Carolina Panthers – I couldn’t allow myself to make David Harris a backup, so I’m personally moving him to OLB for the purposes of this rookie team. Even though he didn’t get a bulk of his playing time until Jon Vilma went down for the season, Harris finished 8th in the NFL with 127 tackles (100+ in the last 8 games of the season). Harris also posted 5 sacks. Beason, finished 3rd in the NFL in tackles with 140. He shored up the weakside LB spot on the Panthers that they’ve been trying to address for a few years now. (Backup: LB Brandon Silar, San Diego)

CB: Darrelle Revis, New York Jets & Leon Hall, Cincinnati Bengals – Revis solidified a position that was in shambles on the Jets. He finished the season with 87 tackles and 3 interceptions. In an often overlooked, yet important stat for DBs, Revis also broke up 17 passes. He proved to be a starter for years to come in the NFL. Hall tied for the rookie lead with 5 interceptions. While he had his bumps as a rookie, he showed flashes that solidified his draft status. He also showed that he has no problem physically matching up with the bigger receivers. (Backups: Fred Bennett, Houston Texans; Aaron Ross, New York Giants)

S: LaRon Landry, Washington Redskins & Reggie Nelson, Jacksonville Jaguars – Landry lived up to his status of being a heavy hitter. While he didn’t record his first INT until the post season, he became an intimidating force. He was 4th among rookies with 95 tackles. Reggie Nelson had a nice year for one of the NFL’s most feared defenses. He had 62 tackles, 5 interceptions and broke up 11 passes. A big year for rookie safeties, all three of the backups here could have easily been starters on the PH Sports All-Rookie Team. (Backups: Gerald Alexander, Detroit Lions; Tanard Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Nedu Ndukwe, Cincinnati Bengals)

Special Teams: K Mason Crosby, Green Bay Packers & Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys – Two kickers?! They both deserve this spot. Crosby ended up leading the NFL in scoring with 141 points. He hit 31 of 39 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Folk scored 131 points while hitting 26 of 31 field goals. Both played key roles on the top teams in the NFC.

Clement’s Weekly Picks and Prognostications…Divisional Round Playoffs

Everything looked more than peachy after Saturday (2-0); however, things took a turn for the worst on Sunday (0-2).

As for this weekend’s predictions, let’s take some time to review some final numbers for the regular season and let’s see if the playoff tide can turn.

Regular Season: 32-15-2
Playoffs: 2-2

…by the way, have you ever seen so many touchdown-plus spreads in a division weekend…

Seattle @ Green Bay [-8]













Over the last 10 weeks, Grant leads the NFC in rushing yards.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

An amazing matchup a few years back, this opening game of the divisional round may prove to be the weekend’s best. While the weather in Lambeau isn’t predicted to be terrible, homefield advantage really means something in this game. While Ryan Grant allows the Pack to be multifaceted on offense, I don’t see this game getting out of hand. I’ll take Seattle to squeeze the spread – even in a loss – but I fear the return of a late Al Harris pick-six may haunt me.

Jacksonville @ New England [-13.5]
















After a week off, will the momentum only increase?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

A playoff spread at nearly two TDs? That’s what happens after 16-0. While they will see 17-0, the Jags should be able to keep this much closer than they did two years ago with Leftwich at the helm. Then again, these are the Patriots. Despite the temptation of a two TD spread, I’m taking the Pats to cruise early and often. No Jacksonville hype here.

San Diego @ Indianapolis [-8.5]












Early reports have Harrison near 100%. Believe the hype?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

We all know Peyton Manning isn’t going to toss 6 INTs, Adam Vinatieri won’t miss a chip-shot FG, the Bolts won’t return 2 punts for TDs and Marvin Harrison/Dallas Clark are active. What else should we learn? Indy is gonna blow this open early in the 4th quarter, especially with a banged-up Antonio Gates giving Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders more freedom than ever.

New York @ Dallas [-7.5]















Who else wants to never hear about Tony & Jessica? Me too!
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Is it that difficult to beat a team three times in one season? It’s been done. And it will be done again. However, this is a tricky spread. I’m predicting an old fashioned 1-possession game. The last game of the weekend may be the one getting the most East Coast love, so I’m all ears.

We will continue our ban on the mockery that is fantasy football during the playoffs.

Championship Weekend looms, I for one can’t wait for my dream scenario:
Green Bay @ Dallas Indianapolis @ New England

However, we all know "dream" scenarios have a way of leaving egg on our faces.

Until next time…

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: New York at Dallas

Dallas Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do allow Marion Barber III plenty of touches. While the duo of Jones/Barber III usually starts out with a lot of Orange Julius, Barber III has shown he can run effectively between the 20s, as well as inside the red-zone. His bruising style can complement downfield play-action passing, especially to Pro Bowl tight end Jason Witten.

Do focus downfield double-teams on Plexico Burress. While Eli showed plenty of patience with Amani Toomer against Tampa, it’s key that Eli doesn’t hit Burress early and often with the deep ball. Torching the Cowboys D for 3 opening week TD receptions, Plaxico’s size and strength can be a real issue for banged up CBs Antonio Henry and Terrance Newman. Not to mention a certain oft-target free safety.

Do gameplan for TO. He’ll suit up. And when he does, keep moving him all over the field. Owens has shown he can play through pain and isn’t afraid to go over the middle. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be targeted with at least a dozen of Romo’s attempts.

Don't believe any of the overhyped and borderline-ridiculous media coverage about Jessica Simpson’s vacation-fling with Tony Romo. Whether or not they went is irrelevant. Romo won’t play any better or worse because of who he is seen canoodling off of US-waters a week before the game.

Don't put any stock in the two previous meetings earlier this season. While beating a team three times isn’t easy, it’s been done. This Giants team did a complete 180, for the better, after the first minute of their Week 17 matchup against New England.

Don't leave Roy Williams out an island. Ken Hamlin played Pro Bowl-caliber safety this season…Roy Williams did not. After years being unrecognized by a too-often pro-Dallas national media, (ESPN) has realized what many offensive coordinators now know: Williams can be picked on up the middle and especially with the long-ball (anybody else remember Brunell to Moss in the 4th quarter in primetime a couple years ago?). Whether it be a deep pass to Plaxico or perhaps an undernearth route to Boss, Smith, or Toomer inbetween the hashmarks, Williams should have a busy afternoon…for better or worse.

New York Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do use both Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw throughout the game. In recent weeks, big backs like TJ Duckett have given Dallas some issues. Don’t be afraid to run at a bull-rushing DeMarcus Ware with the speedy Bradshaw and run away from him with a power-back like Jacobs.

Do your best to win the special teams battle. Nick Folk is a rookie kicker and the return game in Dallas is, at best, hit or miss. Breaking open a few big plays can change the tide, especially on the road for the Giants.

Do allow Eli to get in a rhythm early. Using Amani Toomer and Kevin Boss, as well as targeting Plaxico for the big play, is imperative. Allowing Dallas to simply target Jacobs and Plaxico, the top Giant playmakers, is far too easy a task with such a speedy, talented defense.

Don't fall behind early. Despite trailing Tampa 7-0, the Giants controlled the pace of the game and willed their style of play upon the Bucs. That won’t be so easy against Dallas. Able to score at the flick of their QB’s wrist, Dallas is far more flammable. The Giants don’t want to be trailing when they receive a heavy diet of Barber III and short underneath throws to Jason Witten in the second half.

Don't underestimate Patrick Crayon and Terry Glenn. While the health and impact of both wideouts could be null and void, only focusing on Witten and TO (especially if he is near 100%) leaves the slot and deep corners potentially wide-open for these Crayton and Glenn. Aaron Ross and Kevin Dockery have their plates full.

Don't panic in the 1st quarter. The worst thing the Giants can do is fall into old tendencies – specifically a frustrated and belittled Eli – as early turnovers occur. This team can’t target winning a shootout. Brandon Jacobs needs to catch screen passes and sure tackles need to be made by the linebackers to avoid an early deep hole on the scoreboard.

Key Matchups

When Dallas has the ball
Jason Witten vs. Gibril Wilson

While Wilson is far from the only Giant responsible for covering Witten, he will often be responsible for the middle of the field…Witten’s forte. Jumping an early route or giving Witten a nice hit-stick will be key for the Giants D to hope to contain a valuable Cowboy-weapon.

When New York has the ball
Kareem McKenzie vs. DeMarcus Ware

As important as it is to pick on suspect-cornerbacks, Eli Manning won’t have much time at all unless DeMarcus Ware, who will rush from both sides of the defensive line, is contained. Able to force fumbles at an alarming rate, Ware can isolate the well-known fact that Eli isn’t the best under-pressure pocket-passer. Ware, one of the top defenders in all of football, has a knack for changing games with one crushing hit. Center Shaun O'Hara's absence may already be costly.

Intangibles

Bye Week vs. Momentum

One of the tougher jobs in this world is winning multiple playoff games, on the road, in the NFL. Meanwhile, homefield advantage – especially in the NFC – is as good as gold in recent years. Will both trends be disproved this weekend?

Tony Romo in January

All we know thus far is the botched hold during the wild-card round last year in Seattle. It’d be unwise to speculate any further, until Monday morning that is on Romo’s January performances.

Final Score Prediction

Dallas wins, 34-28.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: San Diego at Indianapolis

Indianapolis Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do lean on the passing game. When the teams met earlier this year, the Colts were without Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark. According to John Clayton, Harrison has been looking great. A Marvin Harrison with some spring back in his step is just what the doctor ordered for the Colts to succeed.

Do stack the line while on defense. The Colts DBs outmatch the Bolts receivers on paper. This allows the 8 men in the box to key in on LT and take the Bolts out where they usually succeed, in the run game. This will force the Bolts into a passing game, where the defense can take advantage of a mistake prone Rivers.

Don’t let the Chargers special teams beat you again. Darren Sproles returned a kick off and a punt for TDs last time, crippling the offensive gameplan. As much as the team should lean on the pass, they should also get Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith some carries. If Manning throws 50+ times again, it’s probably because Indy is playing catch-up again.

Don’t get scared if it comes down to a Vinetieri kick to win the game. He will not miss again.

Don’t play that stupid simulated crowd noise. Let the fans show up, if they truly are fans.


San Diego Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do feed a steady diet of LT to the Colts front seven. They’re a little light in the bread-basket. Norv Turner couldn’t have a more simple plan for this game. LT is the key to winning (as in most games). If the Bolts get behind, their receivers don’t match up favorably with the Colts and NFL Defensive MVP, Bob Sanders will make it a long day for Rivers.

Do find a way to get Antonio Gates involved, which will take Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea somewhat out of their game. If the Colts even think of putting a linebacker on Gates, Rivers will have a field day.

Don’t break away from the defensive plan if it doesn’t work early. The Merriman and Phillips need to be cut loose and go after Manning. The Colts have a system on offense that has been solidified over many years. Not many teams are successful at rushing Manning, but teams that do succeed have had positive results with the final score.

Don’t expect Peyton to throw 6 picks again.


Key Matchups:

When Indianapolis has the ball

RB Peyton Manning vs. CBs Quentin Jammer and Antonio Cromartie
Several variables stand out here. Manning will most likely not have another 6 INT game. Quentin Jammer was out last time these teams faced each other. Peyton didn’t have two of his favorite targets available (Harrison & Clark).

When San Diego has the ball

OT Marcus McNeil vs. DE Robert Mathis
Last time these teams faced, Mathis had a sack against McNeil. McNeil has to keep Mathis out of the backfield. If the Bolts are forced to play catch-up, Mathis can make short work of the offense as Rivers will be forced to find an open receiver, giving Mathis more time to get to him.


Intangibles:

Can Norv Turner beat a solid team in the playoffs?
I hate to make this about Norv Turner, but the theme works for me. Last week, the question was: “Can Norv Turner win a playoff game?” Now that coached his team to a victory against a Titans team that was a little banged up on offense, they face a tougher challenge. If the Bolts can knock out the defending Super Bowl champs, they may pose the biggest threat to the Patriots this season. But, let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.

Special Teams
Going back to their regular season match up, the special teams are what dictated the game early on. Two return TDs and a field goal put the Bolts ahead 16-0, forcing Manning to throw the ball the rest of the game. The return game will be key again, on a fast field in Indianapolis. Whomever wins the field position game will win the game (barring that more important stat of turnovers).


Final Score Prediction:

Indianapolis wins, 29-22

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Jacksonville at New England

Jacksonville Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do wear down the aging New England linebackers. Whether that means constantly running the ball or completing a lot of passes underneath, you want to tire out these guys. They’re the heart of the defense, and if they’re struggling to breathe, so will everyone else.

Do bring the occasional blitz on Brady. I don’t mean only once or twice during the game, but rather a handful of times early on, and maybe twice after halftime. I also don’t mean bringing everyone on the blitz, but just one or two extras. This will force New England to run more than they like to.

Do watch the Philadelphia and Baltimore game tapes. Hell, bring in Andy Reid during the week and consult with him. These teams had a solid game plan and nearly upset the Pats. Now imagine if they were as good as you are…

Don’t be intimidated. The last few weeks of the season demonstrated that the Patriots are mortal, even though they don’t believe they are. Get in their heads, make Brady doubt himself even for a minute, and you’ll have the biggest upset of the year.

Don’t get comfortable. Even if you build up a good lead, say 12 points, don’t start taking it easy. New England never feels that it’s out of a game, and will do everything it can to win the game, even if it’s in the final seconds.

Don’t forget about Ben Watson and Wes Welker. These two have stepped it up whenever Randy Moss gets the double coverage, and both have made teams pay all season. This is especially true in the red zone.

New England Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do stick to the game plan that proved so successful all season. In other words, no mercy. The past few weeks have shown a possible chink in your indestructible armor, so now you need to put an end to that. If you can make this a statement game, the awe you inspired in other teams will return.

Do pressure Garrard into mistakes. He won’t make the stupid mistakes on his own, but on this stage, I think he can be easily pressured into making them. Maybe even have one of the linebackers shadow him for most of the game.

Don’t forget about defending against the run. This aspect of your defense has been spotty all season. Now, with the best two-headed running tandem in the league coming to town, you need to step it up. Otherwise, Taylor and Jones-Drew will win this game on their own.

Don’t forget about Kevin Faulk. Especially if you’re having a hard time establishing the running game through Maroney. In this case, bring in Kevin Faulk and make use of the patented “Steve Spurrier running game.” AKA screen passes up the wazoo. Faulk has proven time and time again that he can work wonders when needed to, so rely on him.

Key Matchups:

When Jacksonville has the ball

QB David Garrard vs. New England’s Linebackers

Don’t get me wrong, New England’s front three can bring pressure on the quarterback, but the game changing plays will likely come from the linebackers. Whether it’s Vrabel, Bruschi, Seau, Thomas or anyone else, these are the guys that can put effective pressure on Garrard. Now, if Garrard is properly prepared to sidestep and rush by these aging heroes, then it’ll be a long day for the New England defense.

When New England has the ball

LT Matt Light vs. DE Paul Spicer

As mentioned earlier, the key to slowing down the Patriots offense is to get to Brady on a regular basis. Paul Spicer is the guy who should be able to do that. Of course, he’s also probably on the New England bulletin board thanks to his comments about spygate. That should be enough extra motivation for Matt Light, but Spicer is too good to be shut down by one man, especially if that man is Matt Light. So the Pats will need to get some help to their left tackle, otherwise Brady’s effectiveness will be drastically minimized.

Intangibles:

Hotness

Some hack on PHSports labeled these two teams as being “hot” heading into the playoffs. The question now is which team can translate its momentum into a victory? Jacksonville looked like its momentum was going to increase early on in the game against Pittsburgh, but the fact that they let the Steelers get back into the game might hurt that ego. Then again, winning a close game at Heinz field might give them extra juice. New England, on the other hand, just won a shootout against the Giants in their last game. And who can forget about that 16-0 season?

Coaching

We all know Belichick will coach his team up well for this game. But the question is, how will Jack del Rio do? Will he be able to inspire his team and encourage them to an improbable victory? Will he be able to devise a perfect game plan? Or will he fail to bring the necessary motivation and preparation to the table? Either way, he will likely be labeled the hero or the zero following Saturday night’s game.

Final Score Prediction:

New England wins, 38 - 21

NFL Divisional Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Seattle at Green Bay

Seattle Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do have faith in your running game … at least early on. You fooled the Greg(g) Williams (I’m docking him the second “g” b/c of the crappy first half last week) defense last week by running a handful of times early in the game. This proved especially helpful later, on the 20 yard TD pass to DJ Hackett in that riDONKulous 4^th quarter.

Do hound the hell out of Brett Favre. No, Favre is not Todd Collins and will not be as easily flustered. Green Bay’s O-Line also isn’t as depleted and incompetent as Washington’s. Nonetheless, keep hurrying and knocking down Favre. He’s old … he can be hurt.

Don’t pick on the cornerbacks. They may not be spring chickens anymore, but Al Harris and Charles Woodson are beast-like and will eat Hasselbeck alive if he gets cocky and/or careless. Stick to the underneath routes early on.

Don’t get into a shootout. If the Falcons can beat you in a shootout, even in Week 17, then Brett Favre can own you in a shootout in the playoffs. Keep the pace of the game slow for at least the first three quarters, and then if you’re successful, maybe you can try to blow it open in the fourth.

Don’t let Matt Hasselbeck open his mouth. We all know what happens there, especially after the overtime coin-toss.

Green Bay Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do make it the Ryan Grant Show. Seattle’s defense relies on its speed, particularly it’s pass defense. If you can establish a solid running attack, it will keep the talented LBs, such as Lofa Tatupu, honest.

Do use the “frozen tundra of Lambeau Field” to your advantage. SI.com rated your stadium as the best “NFL Fan Value Experience." But what they don’t mention in that article is how much opposing teams hate playing there. I’d rather take on Seattle’s 12^th man. So use Lambeau, and its boisterous fans, to your advantage. Oh, and pray for frigid weather.

Do bring in John Madden to give the pre-game pep-talk. Just in-case the team is starting to doubt it’s QB.

Don’t expect an 80/20 pass/run ratio. Seattle knows teams expect this, and will run it when you least expect. If you do keep their running attack to where it was for most of the regular season, then you have a chance against Hasselbeck’s arm.

Don’t let Brett Favre be Tony Romo. Romo is trying to be the Brett Favre of yesteryear … goofy, always smiling, flinging the ball every which way just for $hits and giggles. Unfortunately, Favre generally can’t get away with that any more, and if he tries, Marcus Trufant and Jordan Babineaux will make him pay.

Don’t confine Brett Favre too much. Yes, I know this directly contradicts the above point. And I’m not saying to let him be a gunslinger. I am, however, saying to let him be the boyish character that somehow manages to unite this team. Let that grin roam free … and yes, a couple of crazy, over-the-shoulder and through-the-legs throws are ok. But only a couple.

Key Matchups:

When Seattle has the ball

QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. CB Al Harris and CB Charles Woodson

I know it’s blurry to us, but I’m sure to Matt Hasselbeck and Al Harris, the memory of the below video is clear as day:

Even if Seattle does incorporate the run into its attack, that means a 65/35 split at best, in favor of the pass. Matt will have to maintain his composure and not be stupid or cocky in testing these two veteran corners. If he does, then he just might win out this time.

When Green Bay has the ball

RB Ryan Grant vs. LB Lofa Tatupu

Ryan Grant has done the unthinkable and given the Packers a chance to draft at a position other than running back in the first round of the 2008 NFL Draft. However, he meets one hell of a linebacker in Lofa Tatupu this Saturday. The Packers need Grant to pound the rock well all day in order to allow Brett Favre to have time in the pocket. If Tatupu and pals can stop Grant, then Patrick Kerney and Julian Peterson will stop Favre.

Intangibles:

Play Calling

Mike Holmgren reverted to a pass happy offensive scheme this season when his running game wasn’t producing. Yet last week, against the Redskins, he wasn’t afraid to run it on occasion, catching Washington off-guard. Weather may have some impact on this intangible, but not a whole lot. Whatever Holmgren decides to do by mid-week will probably stick … and that decision will make-or-break the Seahawks’ season.

Brett Favre

Generally, as Favre goes, so go the Packers. I know … I’ve cited Favre a hundred times in this short piece. But how can I not? The man is one hell of an athlete and will continue to play his heart out until the final whistle blows. However, that doesn’t mean that he’ll necessarily play well during the game. The past few years have seen inconsistency become Favre’s new trademark. This past regular season, largely, was a reversion to the Favre of the 1990’s. Cheeseheads worldwide are hoping that trend sticks for 3 more games.

Final Score Prediction:

Green Bay wins, 34 - 17.

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections -- January 7, 2008

Right when you thought North Carolina was going to lose at Littlejohn (YEAH!), Wayne Ellington reminds us exactly how good he is. Furthermore, Ellington let us know that Chris Lofton is, at best, the second-best contested long-distance shooter in the nation.

Although it is early, there is an increasing amount of separation between the top four teams in the nation and everyone else. Though Michigan State and Duke are also among the upper echelon, both seem to be missing a piece that the top four teams have.

Among the risers are Drake, Dayton and Wisconsin. While Drake has yet to seal a signature win, they have been consistent behind first-year coach Keno Davis. Sound familiar? He’s the son of Iowa legend Dr. Tom Davis. As for Dayton, Brian Roberts is the real deal. Not only did they crush Pittsburgh prior to an injury suffered by Levance Fields, they won ugly against a good Akron team. As I highlighted early on in the preseason rankings, the A-10 is no kiddie pool and is at its strongest since my adolescent days when John Cheney wanted to strangle John Calipari. In Madison [and Austin], absolutely no one has forgotten about Michael Flowers’s three-point shot and subsequent hustle play to buoy Bucky to an unlikely victory against the Longhorns. The high-profile win really went a long way in showing the Badgers’ resolve.

There are also a bunch of teams that raise serious concerns. The first two are Arizona and Southern California. First, how long can the Wildcats go without Jerryd Bayless? Sure, Nic Wise has deputized decently well and improved greatly since last year, but his out-of-control style brings horrific memories of the Mustafa Shakur years. Second, what lessons have Tim Floyd learned since blowing a double-digit lead last year in the Sweet 16? I’ll spell it out. Grow a bench! If this was a straight prediction model, I would not have included the Trojans at all, but I think USC will hit their stride in about two weeks’ time. Of course, there is Pittsburgh, who raises major red flags due to long-term injuries to two starters. If the Panthers finish 5th or better in the dog-eat-dog Big East Conference, then you can consider this to be Jamie Dixon’s best coaching job.

Lastly, Arkansas’s victory at Baylor went a long way in determining the last four teams in the field of 65. For Arkansas, it meant that they got to stuck around. It was only a few days earlier that they lost to this year’s Appalachian State team. Thanks to Michigan football, we all know where Appalachian State is. As for BC, they beat out North Carolina State as the 6th team to represent the ACC. For the 65th pick, I went with a flyer in Valpo. No … no member of the Drew family plays for this team, but they have been good enough to the be the #2 team in the 9th-rated conference and three of their four losses have been away to teams in my Power 16.
Cases can be made for Providence and Oregon, but is it realistic to have a 9th Big East team and a 7th PAC-10 team represented? History shows that it is unlikely in the eyes of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. Of course, there may be a third team represented from the Missouri Valley once the smoke clears and the dust settles from an upside-down start to the season.

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com. As always, feel free to comment on the board.

The Seedings
1: North Carolina (ACC), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10), Kansas (Big XII)
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Duke, Texas, Georgetown (Big East)
3: Washington State, Tennessee (SEC), Texas A&M, Marquette
4: Vanderbilt, Butler (Horizon), Rhode Island, Ohio State
5: Dayton (A-10), Ole Miss, Clemson, Drake
6: Oklahoma, Indiana, Stanford, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: UMass, Arizona, Syracuse, Southern California
8: Wisconsin, Virginia, Pittsburgh, Xavier
9: Kent State (MAC), Louisville, St. Mary’s, Miami-FL
10: Sam Houston State (Southland), West Virginia, Arizona State, Notre Dame
11: Villanova, George Mason (Colonial), Kansas State, Boston College
12: Arkansas, Southern Illinois (MVC), Utah (MWC), Baylor
13: Valparaiso, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Davidson (Southern), UC-Santa Barbara (Big West)
14: Holy Cross (Patriot), Winthrop (Big South), Hampton (MEAC), New Orleans (Sun Belt)
15: New Mexico State (WAC), UM-Baltimore County (America East), Yale (Ivy), Oakland (Summit)
16: Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), Montana (Big Sky), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Grambling (SWAC)

IN: Drake, Arizona State, Notre Dame, Boston College, Valparaiso
OUT: Creighton, Oregon, North Carolina State, Providence, Brigham Young

Last Four In: Boston College, Arkansas, Baylor, Valparaiso
Last Four Out: Providence, Illinois State, Oregon, UConn
Next Four Out: Houston, Florida, Akron, Minnesota

Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 6/10 – UCLA, Washington State, Stanford, Southern California, Arizona, Arizona St.
Big XII: 6/12 – Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor
ACC: 6/12 – North Carolina, Duke Clemson, Virginia, Miami-FL, Boston College
Big East: 8/16 –Georgetown, Marquette, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, West Virginia, Villanova, Notre Dame
Big Ten: 4/11 – Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Wisconsin
SEC: 4/12 – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Arkansas
A-10: 4/14 – Rhode Island, Dayton, UMass, Xavier
Missouri Valley: 2/10 – Drake, Southern Illinois
Horizon: 2/10 – Butler, Valparaiso
West Coast: 2/10 – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s

BCS Title Pre-Game Analysis: #1. Ohio State vs. #2. LSU

0-4 with my initial BCS picks? OUCH is definitely the word.

I haven't felt like such an airhead since...

Ohio State Do’s and Don’t’s:

Most PHSports writers tab Beanie Wells for a big night.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do pound the ball early and often with Chris “Beanie” Wells (5.8 yds/rush). Even if the LSU defense roars early, Wells should have well over a dozen carries before halftime. It’s essential, especially when attempting to open up play-action passing downfield, that LSU being given a steady diet of the Buckeyes most talented offensive threat.

Do take advantage of turnovers. LSU has proven they’ll give the ball away and give up the big play on special teams. If Ohio State is given a short field, it must score points. We’re not talking field goals either.

Do open up some big play opportunities. While Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline won’t jump off of the stat pages, they’re solid possession wideouts. Don’t be afraid to air out the ball, especially on 2nd and short, and try to hit the home run against the Tigers D.

Do not give 2007’s BCS Title game a single thought. The game was a complete disaster from start to finish. Jim Tressel appeared outcoached 1 second after the Ted Ginn Jr. kickoff return for a TD. While Urban Meyer isn’t across the field, Les Myles is a savvy coach who isn’t afraid to make a gutsy call.

Do not leave Boeckman without extra protection in the pocket. While speed obviously favors LSU, size can help Ohio State. Keep extra tight ends and backs in the backfield whenever possible. We’ve seen in previous title games (USC/Oklahoma & Florida/OSU just how much size can succumb to raw speed).

Do not allow Vernon Gholston to remain on one side of the line for very long. Move this absolute beat of a pass rusher around. One or two hits to Matt Flynn and the Tigers will have to change the entire protection scheme. Gholston’s too talented a defender not to be flying all over the field.

LSU Do’s and Don’t’s:

More than just media attention must be paid to DT Glenn Dorsey.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Do isolate a few gadget plays from Trindon Holliday. It’s important that LSU doesn’t lose its identity. While the Tigers have won and loss seemingly countless games in the closing seconds, there’s no reason to become uber-conservative and not take advantage of a glaring speed and overall athletic-advantage numerous players on their roster offer them.

Do switch up defensive looks and keep Todd Boeckman guessing. Only his first-year as a starter, Boeckman has never seen a defense – out of the SEC too – like the Tigers. Glenn Dorsey may be next year’s number 1 pick, but there is a ton of talent on this roster. The secondary has issues, so be sure to disguise blitzes and zone schemes whenever possible to prevent giving up the big plays.

Do pound Jacob Hester on 3rd and short. He’s a solid short-yardage runner who grinds out tough yards. While that would appear to play into a Big Ten mentality, Hester’s nose for the redzone is too good to pass up.

Do not believe the numbers. Sure, Ohio State is 0-8 against the SEC in bowl games. Big deal. This isn’t about 2007 or any other year for that matter. The Tigers have a bad loss, at home, to an unranked Arkansas team to prove how beatable they can become. Simply showing up won’t equate to a second BCS title.

Do not lose big on the special teams battle. One area where Ohio State may have a decided advantage is special teams. If the game is close, don’t allow poor kickoff coverage or missed field goals be the difference. Avoid costly penalties and wrap-up at all costs.

Do not stop rotating QBs Matt Flynn and Ryan Perrilloux. It’s become more and more apparent than in the modern landscape of college football, variety is the ultimate benefit at the position. Balance using both QBs legs and redzone abilities as you have done all season thus far.

Key Matchup:

Jim Tressel vs. Les Miles
Tressel is in his third national title game (seeking his second win) and second consecutive. Miles may be in his first title hurrah, but was coveted my Michigan and is as flamboyant a sideline personality as you’re likely to find. LSU has lived and died in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter, while Ohio State has been rather quiet this year (only making headlines when losing at home to Illinois and then defeating Michigan). While Tressel no longer surprises anyone with his expertise and game-planning, it’d be a mistake to believe that LSU and Les Miles have won simply by showing up.

Intangible:

Homefield Advantage?
Don’t give it a second thought. Superdome or not. The Buckeyes travel as well as any team, the tickets are allotted reasonable well, and Hurricane Katrina has NOTHING to do with this game. Sorry, Chris Berman.

PHSports Final Score Predictions:
Clement: LSU wins 27-20
MVP: Jacob Hester

Armin: Ohio State wins 44-38
MVP: Chris Wells

Sum: LSU wins 31-23.
MVP: Glenn Dorsey

Pay: LSU wins 28-24.
MVP: Chris Wells

Until next season…

Saturday’s College Basketball Musings

Exactly like the title indicates, these thoughts are unsystematic …

Kansas is awfully good. I still think they’re still a player thin in the frontcourt, but having Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson and Sasha Kaun as your only bigs is a major positive. Mario Chalmers may be the nation's best defensive player. PERIOD.

Butler is doing everything to legitimize the 4-seed I gave them in the pre-season projections. We all knew the backcourt tandem of Green and Graves (yes, in that order) would be dominant, but freshman Matt Howard has made some forget about the losses of Brandon Crone and Brian Ligon.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Oregon has done nothing but disappoint. Mark January 5 as a possible turning point. Though Arizona was without do-everything guard Jerryd Bayless, the Ducks were unstoppable from behind the arc (10 for 22). Consider this a step back for the Wildcats who have shown marked improvement on the defensive end with Kevin O’Neill at the helm.

Despite improving to 10-3, NC State has driven me nuts. Sure, you lost your point guard for the year to a brutal injury. To have Presbyterian (1-18) sniffing at your heels for about 39 minutes is insulting to a program that has NCAA tournament aspirations. This can’t be too encouraging with the ACC schedule right around the corner.

If Vanderbilt continues to play with this level of fervor and resolve all season, you can just give National Coach of the Year honors to Kevin Stallings. After losing SEC Player of the Year Derrick Byars (17.0 ppg) and Dan Cage (11.2 ppg), they were an afterthought. Someone forgot to send that memo to Stallings and company.

Kentucky sucks. No analysis needed. Youth or not, these results are unacceptable given the talent in place. Imagine if Tubby was 6-7. It would have never gotten that far.

Here’s a scary statistic: the SEC is the 8th-rated conference according to the RPI. Entering today’s play, only five SEC teams are rated in the top 100. Does this mean that the SEC, if this ranking holds, will have no more than three representatives dancing in March? If the ranking holds and justice is served, then that answer will be an emphatic “YES!”

Clement’s Weekly Picks and Prognostications…Wild-Card Weekend

Playoff weekend. Or is it payoff weekend? Spreads are shrinking rapidly outside of San Diego, and plenty of moolah is to be made over the weekend. Or is it?

While some teams are red hot (Washington), others have rested for nearly a month (Tampa Bay). While some teams stumbled into the playoffs (Pittsburgh), others have everyone shaking in their boots (Jacksonville).

We have a media darling (the Jags), a sentimental favorite (the Skins), a classic overachiever (the Titans), road warriors (the Giants), and experienced homers (the Seahawks).

In the end, we have what should amount to a competitive, yet firework-free, NFL wild-card weekend.

Tennessee lacks star power and Vince Young isn’t even healthy!
San Diego has as vanilla a coach and as lackluster a home playoff record as anyone.
Washington still has Todd Collins, 3-0 or not, under center.
Tampa doesn’t have three skill players most fans can name off the top of their head.
The Giants can play the Patriots tightly until the closing seconds or lose 35-3 any given week.
Jacksonville is beloved, but was doodoo in the playoffs two years ago.
Pittsburgh lost Fast Willie, Aaron Smith and their swagger a month ago.
Seattle’s former MVP runs a 9.5-40 yard dash these days.

So while you may have rooting interests, don’t expect ratings to be through the roof.

…Waiting in the Wings…
NFC’s #1 seed Dallas Cowboys and #2 seed Green Bay Packers.
AFC’s #1 seed New England Patriots and #2 seed Indianapolis Colts.

Without further banter, let’s get the predictions started!
Since the other staff writers here did such a fantastic job, I’m talking spreads only!

...spreads will be updated Saturday & Sunday morning...

Washington @ Seattle [-3.5]














Guess who gets to try and bottle up red-hot Santana Moss this weekend?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

While the Skins are as hot as any current team not playing in Foxboro, Seattle at home is something I’m not willing to bet against this postseason.

Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh [+2.5]












What will be the state of the "field" Saturday night?
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Disrespecting the Steelers and overrating the Jags could be costly. Not for me.

NY Giants @ Tampa Bay [-3]














All he does is make the playoffs...in the NFC.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Despite being 7-1 on the road, it’s hard to trust the Giants. I’ll take a rested Tampa team with a suffocating zone attack for the push.

Tennessee @ San Diego [-10]














Several Titans' health may decide more than the spread in this game.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Who have the Chargers beaten outside of Tennessee (due to a very questionable non-call) during their recent 6-game winning streak? Win or lose, this spread is too large for my wallet.

By the way, there will be zero mention of NFL Playoff Fantasy Football. Blasphemy.

Until next weekend...

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Tennessee at San Diego

San Diego Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do get the ball in the hands of Tomlinson early and often, then follow up with Turner/Sproles. LT’s magic on the field is what frees up Gates and Chambers. Throwing some mid-game and early 4th quarter carries in Turner’s and Sproles’s direction will offer enough of a breather for Tomlinson to take over at the end of the game.

Do force Vince Young to pass the ball (assuming Young is healthy enough to play). While Young has a slightly better completion percentage than Rivers, the TD/INT ratio is not even close (Young 9/17, Rivers 21/15). If Kerry Collins gets the nod, the Chargers pass rush might have a field day.

Don’t let Vince Young take the defense out of its game. While it might be a good idea to have either Merriman or Phillips spy on Young, it would be disastrous to allow more than one player focus on him. That’s what frees up players like Roydell Williams and Chris Henry to break long ones.

Don’t let Phillip Rivers within LT’s vicinity if he’s fresh off throwing an interception.


Tennessee Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do run the ball and tire out the Chargers defense. The Chargers are in the middle of the pack when it comes to run-defense. Sending LenDale White, Chris Brown and Chris Henry after the defense could wear out the Chargers defense enough for the Titans to make a move late in the game.

Do let the defense slow down the tempo of the game. The more vanilla the game, the more advantage for the Titans. This is a defense that found success over the last five games of the year by lulling opposing offenses to sleep. Keith Bullock and David Thornton must bring their A-games, to keep LT in check.

Don’t let the game get out of hand early. The Titans don’t have the best system for playing catch-up. In a three-game losing streak at the start of the second half of the season, they let Jacksonville, Denver and Cincinnati get early leads, and the Titans never recovered. Furthermore, they were games where Young averaged about 38 pass attempts per game totaling 2 TDs and 5 INTs.

Don’t let LT beat you. Put the ball in the hands of Rivers and let him try to beat you. Rivers is more prone to fatal errors than LT is. When Rivers has to force his game, he’s usually good for two to three picks.


Key Matchups:

When San Diego has the ball
TE Antonio Gates vs. S Michael Griffen
Gates put together another dominant season from the TE position. While most TEs in the league can be covered by an athletic linebacker, there are few linebackers in the league that can cover Gates. Griffen will have to spend most of the day shadowing Gates limiting his free space in center field. Griffen, a swing safety who can play corner, has the coverage skills to shut down Gates. Gates will have to bring his best.


When Tennessee has the ball
RB LenDale White vs. NT Jamal Williams
A matchup of some of the beefiest at their respective positions. White must move the pile on a consistent basis in order to open things up for Chris Henry and Chris Brown on the outsides. If Vince Young plays, one of the keys to success on offense will be the play-action. Not only will this open up receivers, as the play is designed for, it will also buy Young a precious second or two to decide whether he throws the ball, or tucks and runs for a gain.


Intangibles:

Will Vince play?
This is the big question in this game. Young likely gives the Titans their only chance to win. Unfortunately, as much as Kerry Collins has helped this franchise in the past two years, he will most likely be helpless against the Chargers pass rush. The Titans desperately need Young’s mobility in the pocket (and outside of the pocket) if they plan on moving to the next round.

Can Norv Turner win in the playoffs?
This remains to be seen. We’ve already seen some unraveling at points (LT walking away from Rivers in disgust). Norv Turner coached teams have always shown a tendency to make mental errors late in games, especially in the playoffs. This lack of discipline has haunted him his entire head coaching career. For the Chargers players, however, last year’s letdown could fuel them to keep up their current momentum heading into the playoffs.


Final Score Prediction:

San Diego wins, 31-17

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: New York at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do use your zone scheme to confuse and frustrate Eli Manning. While Plaxico is healthier than ever this season, the Giants lack true downfield speed and – due to the injury to Jeremy Shockey – a threat in the middle of the field. The Bucs D allowed a league low in points per game and have the personnel to both stack the box and drop into zone coverage.

Do balance the offensive attack with a steady diet of play-action. Jeff Garcia (13 TDs, 4 INTs) is as protective of the ball as any quarterback this side of Foxboro. By using Earnest Graham (10 rush TDs) early and often, downfield passing plays can be made to touchdown-threat Joey Galloway.

Don't start slowly. After taking nearly 3 weeks off, the Bucs can’t afford to be too rusty. While the Giants have blown leads before (see Week 17), they have a power running game and a solid pass rush. Those aren’t two things that are easily overcome in the playoffs.

Don't put your tackles out on an island. Use a blocking tight end or leave some in the backfield. While Garcia is plenty nimble, he isn’t going to escape a collapsing pocket more often than not. Allowing Umenyiora and Strahan free cracks at the QB can cost this team the game.

New York Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do get Eli started early. Whether it’s a deep-shot to Burress or quick out-routes to Toomer, Boss, or Smith…Eli has to get an early feel for the game. This doesn’t mean the running game has to be abandoned, but don’t wait until 3rd and long to force Eli to make plays.

Do allow Antonio Pierce and Kavika Mitchell to spy on Garcia. A master of play-action all-season long, Pierce and Mitchell must use their athleticism to prevent dangerous screen passes and potential 1st-down scrambles by Garcia.

Don't lose the special teams battle. Seemingly every week the Giants plug in a new kickoff returner who can take it to the house. While Tampa broke their infamous non-kickoff return TD record this season, don’t allow the floodgates to open. Tynes hasn’t be tested regularly either, so don’t ask him to kick a 50-yarder…good weather or not.

Don't panic. Whether you fall down 14-0 early or need a TD-drive late in the game, the Giants can’t afford to panic. Eli has never been known as a 4th-quarter QB and often gets the shakes when the game is on the line. Value the ball (no drops Amani) and look for plays downfield to Plaxico. If the game is on the line, Eli has the talent to make the necessary plays.

Key Matchups:

When Tampa Bay has the ball
Jeff Garcia vs. Antonio Pierce
While the two offensive tackles against the two defensive ends is a sexier matchup on paper, watching these two savvy veterans is the real eye candy. Pierce will have to disguise blitzes and coverage schemes for Garcia, who can easily play small ball or go deep across both sidelines.

When New York has the ball
Plaxico Burress vs. Ronde Barber
It’s no secret that Burress (12 TDs, 1 for each mention in this post) and Eli Manning have chemistry. Even if they don’t practice together regularly, Plax is the top target (especially in the redzone) for his QB. However, Eli has proven that he isn’t always able to avoid the pick-six. Enter one of the best to ever do it, CB Ronde Barber…and there’s a couple Pro Bowlers just waiting to do battle all game long.

Intangibles:

Mo
Yep, momentum. An ugly word when it comes to playoff prognosticating. The Bucs clinched the NFC South almost a month ago and haven’t played 100% in 3 weeks. Meanwhile, the Giants played Week 17 as if it were their Super Bowl. After blowing a 3rd quarter lead of 28-16, one wonders if last week took too much out of the Giants OR not enough out of the Bucs.

Homefield Advantage?
The Giants are 7-1 on the road this season (only a Week 1 loss in Dallas) and seem to play better away from the Meadowlands each and every week. The Bucs, meanwhile, have a solid home record; yet lost their last home playoff game (in 2005 to Washington). Many people feel this game would be a different prediction if it were in New York, which is quite interesting considering the typical leverage towards the home team in the wild-card round.

Final Score Prediction:

Tampa Bay wins 23-19.

Pay's Pick & Roll - January 2, 2008

Conference Play Is Here

Hallelujah! Full-scale conference play is finally here, yet I had a hole in my heart thanks to the alma mater - shortly after 5pm Eastern time no less!

Over the last few weeks, I've been consumed with things other than college basketball, yet I assure you that while the updates will not be daily as I originally would have hoped, it will be more regular as conference play continues to take shape. What I love about the start of conference play is the optimism that almost all teams carry into the season. Unless your team has a RPI in the 300s, then it's likely that at this point, they have yet to go through that February funk. They have yet to take possessions off. They have yet to give up on their coach. Freshmen are still freshmen, and even if Dick Vitale had a voice, he'd wait until late February or early March to remark that "they (freshmen - usually from Duke) are no longer freshmen".

With all of the love showered upon conference play, recognition must be given to the likes of Kent State, who fearlessly traveled to Chapel Hill to battle the Tar Heels (albeit, in defeat); to Houston and Massachusetts for putting on an entertaining end-to-end show; and to Ohio University who will play absolutely anyone, anywhere, anytime if given the opportunity.

Here are some key matchups leading into the weekend:

Non-Conference Play
Virginia @ Xavier - Singletary versus Lavender is more than enough reason to watch this game.

Conference Play
UCLA @ Stanford - Can UCLA stop the Lopez twins? Can Anthony Goods involve himself early and often when being gloved by Darren Collison? This game could literally mean millions to Brook Lopez and Kevin Love.
Providence @ Marquette - Stocks are up in Creanland. Four Friars averaging double-digit points may very well initiate depreciation.
Marist @ Rider - Some love for the little guys. Don't use that term around Syracuse transfer Louie McCroskey or the other Mr. Double Double Jason Thompson (19.9ppg, 11.0rpg, 2.9bpg).

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Jacksonville at Pittsburgh

Jacksonville Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do let your two headed running attack go buck wild on the Pittsburgh D. In game one Fred Taylor and Mo-Jo-Dro had 37 combined carries for 216 yards (5.84 yards per carry).

Do torment Big Ben. You sacked the wannabe golden boy 5 times in the first meeting, yet he still torched you for 3 TDs. Keep the pressure on him.

Don’t rely too much on the passing game. Yes, David Garrard has been key for you all season, but that’s due to the awesome running game. Don’t switch things up now.

Don’t let the Steelers’ long injury list fool you. The Steelers define the word “grit” and will come out swinging.

Don’t get cocky. Many writers, including one here on PHSports, have labeled you as a “hot” team entering the playoffs and Vegas has you as 1.5 point favorites. Don’t buy the hype … show up to play.

Pittsburgh Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do make use of your home-field edge. The condition of the turf is pathetically horrid, so practice on it all week long. That’s what makes it “home-field advantage” … you get to know the field (plus you have thousands of fans screaming for you).

Do stack 7 men in the box on defense. Take a page from the Washington/Minnesota week 16 game and make the Jags beat you through the air. It’s not a surefire strategy, but it’s easier to beat a one-dimensional team.

Don’t give up the running game. Najeh Davenport is a solid back and can pound away at that Jacksonville front 4. Even if you’re struggling to establish the run, keep with it.

Don’t underestimate David Garrard. While he probably can’t beat you entirely on his own, he also won’t lose the game for his team with stupid mistakes. Focus on your run D, not on hoping that Garrard makes errant throws.

Don’t let Big Ben ride a motorcycle. Sorry, had to.

Key Matchups:

When Jacksonville has the ball
Fred Taylor/Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Pittsburgh’s Front 7
The two RBs are Jacksonville’s bread and butter, in that order. Pittsburgh will need to stack the box and add Polumalu to the mix as well. If they don’t, then I wouldn’t be surprised with a 6-7 ypc average for the Jags’ duo.

When Pittsburgh has the ball
TE Heath Miller vs. FS Reggie Nelson
Roethlisberger will need to settle his nerves early and throughout this game, and he’ll need his TE to be reliable in order to do that. Reggie Nelson (and the rest of Jacksonville’s D) will have to rough Miller up regularly and keep him from making solid grabs. If they can do that, Big Ben might be feel pressured enough to make regular mistakes.

Intangibles:

Injuries
Like I referenced earlier, the Steelers are suffering from a long list of injuries. Those with minor bumps and bruises will need to step up and play like the blue-collar community they represent. And the second and third-stringers who will get to see solid playing time will need to drop the playoff jitters too, or else it’ll be a long day for the Steel crew.

Field Condition
Another earlier mentioned factor, field condition, will be a major issue as well. Fred Taylor has already expressed his concerns about the field, and based on earlier showings he’s got a point. If there’s any inclement weather, this will be a really, really ugly game.

Final Score Prediction:
Jacksonville wins, 27-17.

NFL WildCard Playoffs Pre-Game Analysis: Washington at Seattle

Seattle Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do let the Redskins beat themselves. The Redskins coaching staff has shown comfort with small leads, keeping the other team in the game. Seattle needs to keep it close going into the fourth quarter, where Redskins opponents have proven to be the better team for most of the season

Do attack the Redskins center field. Sean Taylor being posthumously named as a pro bowl starter was no fluke. The Redskins are weak in coverage at the safety position now. Between Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett, the Seahawks can take advantage. The slot receiver could get a lot of looks.

Do get in the Redskins backfield. Todd Collins is running an offense that he knows like the back of his hand. If Patrick Kerney can spend the game in the Redskins backfield, Collins will be more susceptible to mistakes.

Don’t let the Redskins pass rush touch Hasselbeck. Hasselbeck is already hurt (wrist). The last thing the Seahawks need is for Hasselbeck to be taken out of his game (or knocked out of the game entirely).

Don’t underestimate the Redskins. Even though they barely squeezed into the playoffs, the Redskins are winners of four straight, and are one of the hottest teams in the conference. They also played in a tough NFC East. The Seahawks, on the other hand, played in the weakest division.


Washington Do’s and Don’t’s:

Do get the receivers involved early. Getting Collins in sync with his receivers early will do wonders for Portis and the running game. If effective, the Redskins receivers could pull a linebacker into coverage, allowing the offensive line to open big holes.

Do allow the front seven to attack. As surprisingly well (or lucky) as the corners have been playing for the Redskins, they can't be left on their own for too long. The front seven must rush Hasselbeck to get rid of the ball early. If Hasselbeck has time, it will be a long day for the Redskins.

Do run up the score. The Redskins can't expect to hold the Seattle offense down the entire game. The Redskins offense will need to step up and put up big numbers to keep up.

Don’t give up the big play. If there is something that has consistently beaten the Redskins in close games this season, it is the big play. Gregg Williams seems to have found a way to stop that during the last four games of the regular season. If Hasselbeck can find his receivers deep, the Redskins won't be able to keep up.

Don’t settle for conservative play. While Saunders and Gibbs should put the ball in the hands of Portis and let him run wild, they can't sit back and allow Seattle to stick around while attempting to run the clock down. As previously mentioned in the Week 10 FourCast, in the second Gibbs era, the Redskins have 13 blown halftime leads in the last four years. In the first Gibbs era, the team blew 11 halftime leads in 12 years.


Key Matchups:

When Seattle has the ball
LT Walter Jones vs. DE Andre Carter
Expect Carter to be cut loose against Seattle. With Hasselbeck already hurt, Jones must keep Carter from rushing Hasselbeck's throws. If Jones wins the battle Hasselbeck is free to throw to his deep set of receivers.

When Washington has the ball
WR Santana Moss vs. CB Marcus Trufant
A bit of a mismatch. Trufant doesn't have Moss's deep speed, and Moss doesn't have Trufant's size. Trufant must jam Moss at the line, or else Moss will get by him and draw safety coverage, leaving another receiver open for Collins.


Intangibles:

Riding the Emotional High
While the Redskins were on an emotional low after Taylor's death and losing to the Bills, they have come together over the last four games, and are playing the best football of the season. The Redskins have been rallying and have found ways to win games.

Rematch of the 2005 Playoffs
Despite turning the ball over three times, the Seahawks played a solid enough game to win 20-10 in the Divisional Playoffs. For the Redskins, the loss left a bitter taste in their mouth, as some felt the Redskins had the better team coming off a 6-game winning streak. Many of the players from both of those teams remain.


Final Score Prediction:

Washington wins, 27-24.

Tuesday FourCast - Week 17

The final Fourcast. Personally, I liked this experiment even though I drew the short-straw and had to write it more often than others. I liked it because it allowed the readers to get four different perspectives on the week-to-week state of the NFL. Further, it’s not a 7 page short-story, like Peter King’s Monday Morning QB, nor is it one-third football and two-thirds unrelated (and oft-times unintelligible) drivel, like Gregg Easterbrook’s Tuesday Morning QB. I might have been a bit biased in that last sentence, but I stand by it, just like Charlie Weis stands by cheeseburgers.

1. 16-0 Does Mean Something … So Stick it in Your Ear, Shula

Who here has ever played a full-season in John Madden Football ever since they got Tony Bruno to do the faux sports radio bit? That’s what I thought … everyone. Now, if any of you have ever guided a team to a 16-0 regular season you’ve heard Bruno wet himself as he excitedly discusses what a great achievement that is. And you know what? It sure as hell is. No team has ever won 16 games in the regular season, and nobody thought it was possible in a league which has become the epitome of parity. But, love ‘em or hate ‘em, the New England Patriots did the unthinkable by running the table. What’s most remarkable about this, for me, is that even though there are superstars on that team, they have been unflappable in their public claim that it’s a full team effort. No single member of that team, from Tom Brady to Junior Seau to even Randy “Look at me” Moss, ever claimed that he was the reason they were the money.

Of course, if New England falters in the playoffs they won’t get the glory of matching the 1972 Dolphins … but 16-0 is still one hell of an achievement.

2. Screw Logic, Play the Starters!

Week 17 of the NFL regular season is usually pretty boring and meaningless, as evinced by the fact that most every fantasy football league ends its season in week 16. Teams that have shored up playoff spots bench their starters to ensure health for the playoffs, and teams that have stunk it up all year hand the reins to the rookies to see what they can do. Aside from a couple of games, week 17 is usually a backup’s paradise. But it appears that somebody forgot to pass that memo to the New York Giants who, although they had locked up the 5-seed in the NFC and had absolutely nothing to play for, still played all starters the entire game and force the aforementioned Patriots to earn win #16. Playing until his team’s final offensive snap, Eli Manning looked like he thought he was his older brother in guiding the Giants through four well played quarters and racking up 35 points against the Pats. Tom Coughlin gets mad props from me for sticking to what football is about and playing his starters and playing them hard until the season’s final whistle.

3. Hot Like Hansel … But Does It Matter?

Looking ahead to the playoffs, everyone is anticipating the “real” Super Bowl between the Patriots and Colts in the AFC Championship game. Of course, I point to the only words of wisdom ever uttered by Herm “4-12” Edwards:

That said, I would like to point out that some teams have been playing with more fire than others during the homestretch into the playoffs. Whether this determined play, which has vaunted these teams to their respective slots in the postseason, continues next weekend or falls by the wayside, these are the 4 teams that the other 8 don’t want to face:

NY Giants: even with the spotty play of Eli, this is a team that stepped it up against the Patriots. Further, they’ve played with grit in the second half of 4 of their last 5 games, earning the 3 wins necessary to get to the playoffs.

Jacksonville: Byron who? Ignoring the fact that their second-stringers lost to the Texans on Sunday, the Jags are playing inspired football. David Garrard has proven to be an effective leader and an efficient passer in clear-cut wins the last few weeks, and in a near upset of Indianapolis on the road.

New England: yes, I know they’re the #1 seed … but considering their win streak and the fact that they see themselves as invincible (even when down by 12), nobody can say they’re not hot. Plus, who really wants to play them?

Washington: This team believes they have guidance from a friend in heaven, and a dominating win over arch-rival Dallas (who played its starters in the entire first half and still accomplished nothing) gives them even more mojo. Not to mention that they’re already riding the fact that the margin of victory over Dallas matched Taylor’s jersey number. They smell fate.

4. What a Year

Without question, this NFL season has been a memorable one. We started out with a perceived “tragedy” in spygate, experienced a real tragedy with the death of Sean Taylor, witnessed a miraculous recovery by Kevin Everett, and saw an unthinkable accomplishment by the undefeated Patriots. When a head coach breaches his contract before the end of his first season in order to jettison to the college game, and that doesn’t make the top-stories of the season … wow. The 2007 season has definitely been one for the ages, and many of the events and occurrences of this year will have a ripple effect on the league for seasons to come. Things to keep an eye on for 2008? How about: Will the reeling-in of Tuna harm the Dolphins? Does the NFL really need to go overseas? Should the influx of injuries in 2007 lead to a revamping of the rules on kickoff coverage? Does anyone really want to coach the Falcons? And one more to keep you thinking … Who can eat more donuts in one sitting, Wade Phillips or Romeo Crennel?

Thanks for keeping up during the regular season! Now make sure to stick with us throughout our playoff coverage, which will start around 9:30 AM tomorrow!