Monday, January 28, 2008

2008 NCAA Tournament Projections - January 28, 2008

It’s official. Kansas is Self-proof. And by that, I mean by that this Kansas team can win the National Championship in spite of Bill Self’s record in big games. For that reason, I’ve decided to place to Jayhawks – who have shown zero vulnerability since the Arizona game – ahead of Memphis who is fantastic in their own right. Meanwhile, the battle for the final #1 seed tightened as North Carolina has forgotten how to defend and Duke continues to churn out victories.

Following the top 11 spots, there is a considerable drop-off in resume quality. Despite a loss on their home floor to UConn who was missing two players, Indiana’s high upside keeps them right above the 4-line. On the 4-line, Arizona and Drake are unexpected inhabitants. For the former, Jerryd Bayless is healthy and the ‘Cats are 13-3 when he plays (1-3 when he does not). As for Drake, they continue to win close games in the ultra-competitive Valley, but their luck may soon run out.

In the ever-changing Mountain West, UNLV is the conference’s lone representative this week, as they defeated San Diego State in enemy territory. Staying out west, New Mexico State validated my confidence in them by thumping Utah State, who played without four players due to suspension.

In the battle for the final two at-large selections, it was a four-way scrum between Maryland, Arkansas, Syracuse and Villanova. By virtue of winning 6 of 8 and giving Duke all it could handle, Maryland has shown plenty moving into February. In spite of having the single strongest win between the three (versus Pittsburgh), Villanova’s play this week was appalling at best and they seem to be heading in the opposite direction. Though Syracuse was impressive in defeat (@ Georgetown) and in victory (vs. Providence), Arkansas gets the nod due to having more quality wins.

That’s all for now. If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at

The Seedings
1: Kansas (Big XII), Memphis (C-USA), UCLA (PAC-10), North Carolina (ACC)
2: Duke, Tennessee (SEC), Michigan State (Big Ten), Georgetown (Big East)
3: Washington State, Texas, Xavier (A-10), Indiana
4: Butler, Marquette, Arizona, Drake (MVC)
5: Wisconsin, Kansas State, Gonzaga (WCC), Vanderbilt
6: Dayton, Oklahoma, USC, Pittsburgh
7: St. Mary’s, Louisville, Stanford, Texas A&M
8: UConn, Clemson, West Virginia, Mississippi State
9: Ohio State, Florida, Baylor, Kent State (MAC)
10: Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Rhode Island, Miami
11: UNLV (MWC), Purdue, South Alabama (Sun Belt), St. Joseph’s
12: Illinois State, Cleveland State (Horizon), Maryland, Arkansas
13: George Mason (Colonial), Davidson (Southern), Sam Houston State (Southland), Oral Roberts (Summit)
14: Cal State Northridge (Big West), New Mexico State (WAC), Cornell (Ivy), Siena (Metro Atlantic)
15: Winthrop (Big South), Hampton (MEAC), Bucknell (Patriot), UM-Baltimore County (America East)
16: Northern Arizona (Big Sky), Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Sacred Heart (Northeast), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Oklahoma, UConn, UNLV, Purdue, St. Joseph’s, Maryland, Arkansas, Oral Roberts, Cornell
OUT: Arizona State, UMass, San Diego State, Villanova, Providence, Virginia, Creighton, Yale, IUPUI

Last Four In: St. Joseph’s, Illinois State, Maryland, Arkansas
Last Four Out: Syracuse, Villanova, UMass, NC State
Next Four Out: Arizona State, Boston College, Oregon, Georgia Tech

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Pac-10: 5/10 – UCLA, Washington State, Arizona, USC, Stanford
Big XII: 6/12 – Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Baylor
SEC: 6/12 – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Florida, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Big East: 7/16 – Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Louisville, UConn, West Virginia, Notre Dame
Big Ten: 5/11 – Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Purdue
ACC: 5/12 – North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami, Maryland
A-10: 4/14 – Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, St. Joseph’s
Missouri Valley: 2/10 – Drake, Illinois State
Horizon: 2/10 – Butler, Cleveland State
West Coast: 2/10 – Gonzaga, St. Mary’s


Sum said...

What!??! No Villanova? Why do you hate the Big East so much? Everybody in their right minds knows that Villanova is at least a 3 seed!! Jeez. You suck. In my totally unbiased projections I have 'Nova as a 2 seed.

Oh wait ... they tried that argument last week ::grin::

Clement said...

Beware the RAC! What a week for the Scarlet Knights.

Man, Syracuse could've used that win against the Hoyas. Although, it helped ZIPPIE last year.

Fairfax on Tuesday night. I suppose all my Ram-clamoring won't help if we lose their. However, if we do...I'm protesting outside your house next Monday with an unfavorable opinion.

Keep up the good work.


Paymon said...

Let's lay off the Villanova representation. They are still reeling from a horrible week. Despite a week that included losing to Rutgers (who also sold their souls and won @ depleted Pitt ... side note: Who else is tired of hearing about their record at the Peterson Events Center?). After that beating, they were handled by a Notre Dame team who perpetually struggles to win away from home.

As for the CAA, if George Mason loses at home to VCU, then a reconsideration is in the cards barring injury to a key VCU player.

I shall be there, if the day job and I-495 allow.

Anonymous said...

Word of advice: Despite the fact that the Nova people were criticizing you last week, they were still reading your blog. But to come here this week and see an unprovoked attack on them is slightly unprofessional.

Paymon said...

Advice noted. I am happy to attract readers from across the country who are as passionate and infomred about college bball as I am.

For the record, I (Paymon) wrote this entry and there is no "unprovoked attack" on Villanova. I said their play was appalling at best this week and based on the box scores and game tape, my statement is accurate.

As an aside, I do not control what other contributors say. I think their goal was humor.

In my humble opinion, banter is part and parcel of fun activities such as bracket projections. of course, there will be delvings into the unprofessional realm, especially when I get called "the worst bracketologist ever" tag by someone who is unfamiliar with my criteria and metric results.

Also, the banter widens my perspective and understanding. It also educates all involved.