Syracuse 127, UCONN 117 [6 OT]: Best Game EVER???

Best ever? It's not hyperbole. It's legitimately up for debate. In my short viewing experience - my first memories are of the 1989 title game between Michigan & Seton Hall - it takes the cake.

You've seen the stats. You know I am a Syracuse fan.
Nevertheless, here's 12 things you gotta know about perhaps the best college basketball game e-v-e-r.

All pictures credit to Yahoo! Sports and ESPN.com

1) Johnny Flynn played 67 of the 70 minutes. He also played 35 minutes of the 40 last night. Math majors, that's 102 minutes since 9:30 pm last night until 1:30 am this morning.

2) Syracuse committed only 16 turnovers in 70 minutes. Even UCONN's 27 don't seem unforgiveable considering the circumstances. UCONN had a rebounding edge of 76 to 62. How many teams overcome -14 rebound deficit to win? Not many.


3) Flynn deserves the gameball; however, don't discount AJ Price. He might've gotten all of his last-second misses out of his system tonight. Price went for 33 points and 7 assists. Yet, the late game misses will hurt...until UCONN throttles their first round opponent next week. He and Jeff Adrien both left a lot of shots on the floor tonight in the closing minutes. Kemba Walker deserves a lot of credit, especiall as a freshman, for the effort. He's obviously no Jerome Dyson though. Not many are.

4) 4 straight Big East Tournament losses for UCONN. Surprising or shocking? Although here's a number in their favor, 6 times they've won 15 games or more in regular season-Big East play. The rest of the field? No more than once each.

5) Paul Harris missed more "gimmes" and "puppies" than anyone could imagine. Nevertheless, the "Niagara Falls Boys" (Flynn & Harris) made 29 of 30 free throws.

Quote of the Day:
Radio Caller: Why doesn't Paul Harris shoot more jumpers? He has a sweet-looking shot.
Jim Boeheim: Two people in the world love Paul's jump shot. You and Paul Harris.

6) Speaking of free throws. What was more shocking: Onuaku making 2 consecutive free throws near the end of regulation OR Cuse as a team making 40-51 (78%) overall and 23 of 26 (88%)? If you know anything about the Cuse in the Boeheim-era, you know this ain't exactly normal.

Credit: HuffingtonPost.com

7) Remember that the UCONN kids and their coach had to interview after this loss. Imagine losing in 6 OTs - never actually trailing in the first 5 OTs - and having to talk about it snotty reporters and blog writers. Now is the time Calhoun - who I admitedly despise - can legitimately tell people to shutup, if he so chooses.

8) Look at the box score lines. Just look. These are unofficial.
A) Paul Harris - 29 points, 22 rebounds, (13-14 free throws), and yet it was a few layups and a missed dunk that almost cost the team. Blake Griffin has a lot of these nights in 30-25 mintues. Not in MSG against UCONN though.
B) Johnny Flynn - 33 points, 10 assists, (16-16 free throws), and only 2 personal fouls.
C) Andy Rautins - 20 points, (6-12 3 point field goals), and the backbreaking 3-pointer a mere 13 seconds in the 6th OT. Yes, the 6th OT.
D) Stanley Robinson - 29 points, 14 rebounds, 7 offensive rebounds, (11-19 FGs), and a potential return to form that will greatly enhance this Huskie team.
E) Hasheem Thabeet - 19 points, 15 rebouds, 6 blocks, and a 5th foul that left his team a shred of what is is with him. Blair, Griffin, and Hansbrough won't get 50+ minutes to draw a 5th foul on the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. Oh yeah, the guy logged 50+ too.
F) Justin Thomas (walk-on) - 19 minutes all season, grabs his first rebound in the 5th OT.
G) Scottie Harrelson - 5 points and two baskets that normally win games and make Bucky Dent's out of 11th men.

9) I bitched a lot about the refs (who doesn't in the Big East against Calhoun???), but they let the kids play down the stretch. My only legitimate gripe: Jeff Adrien committed 12+ fouls. However, he was also out there to miss two potential game-winning shots. And yes, I admit the Devendorf shot was after the buzzer. I still wanted it to count...

10) Devendorf's shot was after the buzzer. Yeah, I said it again. Maybe by 0.0000001 seconds. Honestly, it was THAT close. Imagine that's the difference between a win in regulation and a historic shot AND a 6 OT game unlike any other. In the end, I honestly don't know which moment I wanted more. Doctors across upstate New York just made a fortune with elevated heart rates (credit to Pay for that gem).

Only Shane Falco has more heart than Johnny Flynn. Maybe.
Credit: MovieForum.com

11) Johnny Flynn taking that body blow trying to screen an unaware Thabeet on Devendorf's eventual miss. That is HEART. Shane Falcon-esque heart. Yeah, I said it.

12) Name a better game. Seriously. Name it. Even without a true buzzer beater for the win. Name a better game. Maybe this one?

Bracket Banter: Thursday Running Blog

3:00 pm: A few highlights from early afternoon action

* #1-seed Kansas was upset by Baylor in the quarterfinals of the Big XII tournament. I was more than a little suspect of the recent media-driven fascination with Kansas "deserving" a shot at a 1-seed. Nevertheless, Kansas will be an odd draw wherever they end up. How do you gauge this team? Unfortunately for the Bears, this doesn't get them in the tournament. However, I do want to invoke one team from last season to remind people how dangerous upsets like this are: Georgia.

Sorry Kansas. But in the words of JoJo, your hopes for a 1 or 2 seed are just "Too Little, Too Late".
By the way, what's up with the robot by the window?
Credit: Clipov.com

* Virginia Tech took out Miami in a very boring 8/9 matchup. Next up: North Carolina. The real question remains the status of Ty Lawson. Judgment call: he plays 15-20 minutes. Question to Pay: If Ty Lawson doesn't play, could that damage the value of a Hokie win? Enough at least to keep them outside of the bubble still?

* #1-seed Louisville jumped up on Providence early and never sweated during a double-digit victory. Will Providence be the "last" Big East team? Not likely. It looks like the conference will get 7 bids this season, not 10 as some predicted earlier this season.

* Villanova is up 34-22 in the first half against Marquette. Clearly the Golden Warriors are going to suffer as much as 2 or 3-seed lines due to loss of Dominic James. It's a shame considering how entertaining the first two matchups were, with a healthy James, between these two teams. Looking at the recent schedule and subsequent performance, you can't really blame the tournament committee if they make that decision. Villanova has a legitimate chance to cut down the nets in MSG. Seriously.

* Arizona and Arizona State are tipping at 12 noon on the "Left Coast". I'll be interested to see whom that affects more. Arizona can't afford a blowout here. Although the skeptic in me believes they'll make the tournament regardless. Any chance the Sun Devils want to make a statement after their bubble was bursted last season???

* Xavier avoided a letdown in the A10 opener. Sorry, but this conference lost my attention after the Musketeer's run to the Elite Eight last season ended.

Plenty to enjoy the rest of the day.
Oh yeah, Donte Green continues to be a bad memory for Cuse fans.

9:45 pm: Checking back in...

In the words of Trik Turner, "You know I'm down even when them odds are against us. It doesn't even matter, nothing else matters." Of course I'll watch the Cuse, win or lose.

Credit: MTV.com

* Georgia Tech upset Clemson. No surprise as the Tigers start 16-0 and finish 7-8. They did sneak up on a few people last season come bracket time though. Not this season, in my opinion.

* BYU got rid of pesky Air Force in the 2nd half.

* Washington continues to roll. They may be the hottest team west of the Mississippi.

* In case you haven't heard, West Virginia toppled #2-seed Pitt in the first real upset of the quarterfinals, 74-60. This proves Bob Huggins has his team playing rock solid basketball AND that Pitt is a legit Final Four contender. Not expending themselves completely this weekend is a good thing. Of course, this does mean no Pitt/UCONN #3.

* Over/under for Thabeet's blocks tonight is 7. He may have a triple double against the hobbled Onuaku and erratic Jackson/Ongenaet.

* James Anderson hit two free throws with 2.3 seconds to go and the Cowboys took out the Sooners 71-70. Blake Griffin and company are a shaky skaky bet in the coming weeks. I just don't trust this team and this coach to make the Final Four, Terminator and all.

* Missouri, in the "driver's seat" for the Big XII championship, draws Texas Tech and Mike Singletary (aka Mr. 29-points-in-a-row) tonight. Could the Big XII potentially have another "Georgia of 2008" on their hands?

Time to pull my hair out to the tune of Jeff Adrien collecting another W against the Orange.
Stanley Robinson is an annoying ass.

Peaking Ahead to Thursday's College Basketball Slate

Check out Pay's latest bracket projections.
Also check out the schedule for conference tournaments.
Last night's reactions are up too.

Tomorrow has quite a lineup. Here are some things to take note of (thanks Pay for the help):

Tubby Smith and Minnesota, Pay's third to last team in, are in action tomorrow against Northwestern, a team a little further down the bubble chart.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Games in RED have major bubble implications.

ACC First Round
Game 1: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Miami, noon
Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, ESPN2, 7 p.m.

Big East Quarterfinals
Game 1: No. 1 Louisville vs. No. 8 Providence, ESPN, noon
Game 2: No. 4 Villanova vs. No. 5 Marquette, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 2 Pittsburgh vs. No. 7 West Virginia, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 3 Connecticut vs. No. 6 Syracuse, ESPN, 9 p.m.

Big Ten First Round
Game 1: No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, noon
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, ESPN2, 5 p.m.

Big XII Quarterfinals
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Texas, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, 7 p.m.

PAC-10 Quarterfinals
Game 3: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 3 p.m.
Game 5: No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 9 p.m.

SEC Opening Round
Game 1: E4 Kentucky vs. W5 Ole Miss, 1 p.m.
Game 4: E3 Florida vs. W6 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.

Mid-major alert! Big West, MAC, MEAC, MWC, Southland, SWAC, and WAC (is that mid-major really?) games tomorrow as well. Enjoy!!!

InClement Weather: Midnight Musings

Check out Pay's latest bracket projections.
Also check out the schedule for conference tournaments.

A few highlights from the night of college basketball...

Close to a brawl at MSG. No dice though. Shocker. K-Fed was involved.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Dexter Pittman led Texas past Colorado. No surprise. The Buffs have lost 22 games this season. One word. OUCH!

Robert Morris received a lucky bounce down the stretch and defeated Mount St. Mary's 48-46 to secure their first NCAA Tournament bid since 1984 as Northeast Conference Champions. In case you didn't know, "The Mount" took out Robert Morris the past two seasons in the Championship game, on their own homecourt no less. Did any of that interest you?

Portland State and Montana State are tied up at 50 at the under-16 timeout in the Big Sky Championship. I'm not watching. Sorry, folks.

I can't feign an interest in the A10 Tournament yet. Sorry yet again. Ditto for the opening rounds of the SWAC, Mountain West, Conference USA, MEAC (quarterfinals), and the Pac-10 opener (Stanford over Oregon State and Oregon vs. Washington State). Oh yeah, Oregon has 22 losses too. Symmetry is cool.

...as for the rating draw of the night...

The Big East left ESPN360 and hit the "real networks" to broadcast the (real) opening round of the Big East Tournament.

As expected, teams 1-8 survived.

DePaul flirted with Providence, but ran out of gas down the stretch to a better team. Pay was right, this win meant nothing for Providence (who is squarely on the bubble). As Pay's second team out, the Friars may not get their at-large bid with just a valiant effort against #1-seed Louisville. In this writer's opinion, the Friars need the outright W for the outright bid. Don't worry symmetry opponents, DePaul has 24 losses.

Marquette broke a 4-game winning streak, leading by as much as 38-10 at the half. Don't get too excited. They were playing St. John's.

West Virginia took an early lead on Notre Dame and never looked back. In case you didn't know, I l-o-v-e watching Notre Dame lose. Here is a memo to Mike Brey:
1) Wear a tie.
2) Luke Harangody is the WORST defensive player I have ever seen.
3) Kyle McAlarney is a liability as he can't score inside 23-feet (and not efficiently enough outside of it).
4) Seriously dude, wear a tie.

Syracuse fought off a scrappy Seton Hall team, who actually led the Orange 37-36 in the second half. Turning point (outside of Cuse having superrior talent) was a scuffle between Arinze Onuaku and John Garcia (who?). AO taunted with a sissy-clap, earning a technical after Garcia shoved him, and a play later a flagrant foul (which should have led to an immediate ejection) led to Cuse opening up a 20-point lead in the next 8 minutes. Eric Devendorf going white-trash on the crowd was just a perk, I suppose. Jay Bilas then gave a 10-minute lecture. Not so good.

Luke didn't look faxed after getting posterized. Why? It happens a lot.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections -- March 11, 2009

After the thumping heard ‘round the world, the scuttlebutt across the net has been where the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee might place St. Mary’s. Right now, they are in our LAST 2 IN. This puts St. Mary’s in a tenuous position leading up to their home game against Eastern Washington on Friday night. Patrick Mills will need to perform, as the Committee will be following that game with a keen eye. Or so, we hope.

Sticking with the mid-majors, Butler fell a seed line after losing a tight home decision to Cleveland State, who effectively stole a bid. Under the current scenario, Auburn is on the outside looking in as a result of the thievery. If Florida defeats Arkansas and Auburn defeats Florida, then Auburn has an even stronger argument as to why they should be included.

As you will notice, there was a difference in the placement of Big Ten bubble teams since the last bracket. To better understand the problem, I determined the records of the Big Ten teams under heavy consideration (sorry, Northwestern, you’re not there yet) against the top 9 teams in the conference. I used the records and key wins to differentiate the teams and determine seeding. As a result, Ohio State seems to be on shaky ground, as their wins continue to lose value.

Penn State: 7-7 (@ Michigan State; Illinois (2); v. Purdue)
Michigan:7-8 (v. Duke; UCLA –N; v. Purdue)
Wisconsin: 7-7 (v. Illinois)
Minnesota: 6-9 (Louisville – N; v. Illinois)
Ohio State: 6-8 (v. Butler; win v. Purdue w/o Hummel)

Here are some impact games taking place tomorrow:
DePaul v. Providence: If Providence loses, they are eliminated from consideration. A win by the Friars has the nutritional equivalent of lettuce.

Iowa State v. Oklahoma State: If Oklahoma State loses, it opens the door for a number of teams to sneak in. The Cowboys lack quality wins away from Stillwater and a good showing is key to an at-large bid.

Notre Dame v. West Virginia: By my count, West Virginia is in, but a loss here could damage their seeding. Notre Dame needs to win this if they have any hope of making the tournament. If they can demonstrate that Harangody is not the entire team against a legitimate opponent, then that helps their cause that much more.

Texas Tech v. Texas A&M: Tech played A&M to two single-digit contests in the regular season and they proved against Kansas that they could catch fire. After their win against Missouri, A&M will be in if they avoid defeat here.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Minnesota

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Western Kentucky

If you have questions, comments, uninhibited hatred, or think I really need some sleep, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, GONZAGA (WCC)
6: Marquette, California, Texas, Arizona State
7: Butler, Tennessee (SEC), Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, Penn State, Michigan
10: SIENA (Metro Atlantic), Oklahoma State, UNLV (MWC), Wisconsin
11: Creighton, Arizona, St. Mary’s, WESTERN KENTUCKY (Sun Belt)
12: Minnesota, Ohio State, Utah St. (WAC), VCU (CAA)
13: CLEVELAND STATE (HORIZON), NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit), Portland State (Big Sky)
15: Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy), RADFORD(Big South)
16: Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), CHATTANOOGA (Southern), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Cleveland State, Portland State, Chattanooga
OUT: Auburn, Weber State, Charleston

Last Four In: Creighton, Minnesota, St. Mary’s, Ohio State
Last Four Out: Auburn, Kansas State, New Mexico, Providence
Next Four Out: South Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
West Coast: 2/9
Horizon: 2/10
MVC: 2/10
SEC: 2/12
A-10: 2/14

Did You Know ... The RPI Edition

How many Big Ten teams are in the RPI Top 19?
1 -- Michigan State (6)

How many ACC teams are in the RPI Top 19?
5 -- Duke (2), UNC (3), Wake Forest (10), Florida State (16), Clemson (19)

How many Big East teams are in the RPI Top 19?
5 -- Pittsburgh (1), UConn (4), Louisville (9), Villanova (14), Syracuse (17)

Which teams have 7 RPI Top 50 wins or more?
Michigan State (12), Pittsburgh (9), Oklahoma (9), Kansas (9), Louisville (8), UConn (8), Illinois (8), Duke (7), Tennessee (7)

Which RPI Top 80 teams in at-large bid contention are 3 or more games under .500 against the RPI Top 50?
Oklahoma State (3-9)
West Virginia (3-7)
Ohio State (5-8)
Wisconsin (4-9)
Temple (1-5)
Florida (2-6)
South Carolina (1-5)
Miami-FL (2-7)
USC (2-8)
Tulsa (2-6)
Virginia Tech (2-8)
Auburn (2-5)
Maryland (3-8)
Northwestern (6-9)
Notre Dame (3-11)

Does Utah's gaudy #11 RPI factor in all of their results?
NO! The Utah RPI does not factor in a home defeat Division II Southwest Baptist, which would likely drop the Utes' rating to at least the 20s.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 9, 2009

Let’s call this the best 34 at-large team edition. After agonizing over including an unprecedented 8th team from the Big Ten, I wilted and included Ohio State over Kansas State, who may earn an at-large bid without winning in the Big XII Tournament (likely versus Texas). Do I think that the Big Ten will carry 8 bids on Selection Sunday? Not really. However, for this last week, I am going to let the basketball do the talking. The week that just ended has been like reading tea leaves through a thick London fog.

Among the top seeds, Louisville replaced Duke on the 1 line. Why? Louisville won the Big East outright and finished 2-1 against the teams who have double byes in the Big East Tournament. It’s all about who you have beaten, and where and when you beat them. When you put that together, Louisville is a top 4 team. If one of the top 3 Big East teams do not make the semifinals and Michigan State or Wake Forest win their conference tournaments, then they may steal the final #1 seed.

Beyond determining the final at-large bids, Championship Week will have an immense say in seed lines 4 through 8, which is as settling as a bad hairpiece. At this juncture, I am projecting that 22 at-large bids have been locked up, leaving 12 bids for the taking. Among our last 12 in are 5 (count ‘em, 5) Big Ten teams! If Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State lose in succession coupled with a Notre Dame or a Georgetown making the Big East semis, then we may see as few as 5 teams in from the Big Ten. Stranger things have happened.

Who Slid One Seed Line Due To Seeding Conflicts?
Marquette

Who Benefited by One Seed Line Due to Seeding Conflicts?
Butler

If you have questions, comments, or uninhibited hatred, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: Pittsburgh (Big East), North Carolina (ACC), UConn, Louisville
2: Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest, Oklahoma (Big XII), Duke
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Florida State, Missouri, Xavier (A-10), Clemson
5: Illinois, UCLA, Syracuse, Butler (Horizon)
6: Marquette, California, Gonzaga, Texas
7: Tennessee (SEC), Arizona State, Purdue, West Virginia
8: Utah, Boston College, BYU, LSU
9: Dayton, Texas A&M, St. Mary’s (WCC), Penn State
10: Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Wisconsin
11: Michigan, UNLV (MWC), Creighton, Ohio State
12: Utah St. (WAC), Arizona, Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
13: NORTHERN IOWA (MVC), VCU (CAA), American (Patriot), Buffalo (MAC)
14: Weber State (Big Sky), Binghamton (America East), Stephen F. Austin (Southland), North Dakota State (Summit)
15: Charleston (Southern), Robert Morris (Northeast), E. TENNESSEE STATE (Atlantic Sun), CORNELL (Ivy)
16: RADFORD(Big South), Long Beach State (Big West), Morgan State (MEAC), MOREHEAD STATE (Ohio Valley), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Texas A&M, Michigan, Arizona, Northern Iowa, Binghamton, Charleston, Radford, Morehead State
OUT: Kansas State, Providence, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Davidson, Vermont, VMI, Tennessee-Martin

Last Four In: Creighton, Ohio State, Auburn, Arizona
Last Four Out: Kansas State, Providence, New Mexico, South Carolina
Next Four Out: Maryland, Virginia Tech, Temple, Notre Dame
Next Four Out: Miami-FL, Davidson, Florida, UAB

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
Big Ten: 8/11
ACC: 6/12
Pac-10: 5/10
Big East: 7/16
Big XII: 6/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
West Coast: 2/9
MVC: 2/10
A-10: 2/14

Tournament Schedules for the Power Conferences

With the tournament matchups set for all of the power conferences, I have included the matchups and schedules below. Those games with clear bubble implications are in red font.

ACC (Georgia Dome -- Atlanta)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Virginia Tech vs. No. 9 Miami, noon
Game 2: No. 5 Clemson vs. No. 12 Georgia Tech, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 NC State, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Boston College vs. No. 11 Virginia, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 5: No. 1 North Carolina vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, noon
Game 6: No. 4 Florida State vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Wake Forest vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN2, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Duke vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 1:30 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 4 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 1 p.m.

BIG EAST (MSG - New York City)

FIRST ROUND
Tuesday, March 10
Game 1: No. 9 Cincinnati vs. No. 16 DePaul, noon
Game 2: No. 12 Georgetown vs. No. 13 St. John's, 2 p.m.
Game 3: No. 10 Notre Dame vs. No. 15 Rutgers, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 11 Seton Hall vs. No. 14 South Florida, 9 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 5: No. 8 Providence vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 6: No. 5 Marquette vs. Game 2 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 7: No. 7 West Virginia vs. Game 3 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 6 Syracuse vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 9: No. 1 Louisville vs. Game 5 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 10: No. 4 Villanova vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN, 2 p.m.
Game 11: No. 2 Pittsburgh vs. Game 7 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 12: No. 3 Connecticut vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 13: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 7 p.m.
Game 14: Game 11 winner vs. Game 12 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 15: Game 13 winner vs. Game 14 winner, ESPN, 9 p.m.

BIG TEN (Conseco Fieldhouse -- Indianapolis)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: No. 8 Minnesota vs. No. 9 Northwestern, noon
Game 2: No. 7 Michigan vs. No. 10 Iowa, ESPN2, 2:30 p.m.
Game 3: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Indiana, ESPN2, 5 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 4: No. 1 Michigan State vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN, noon
Game 5: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 5 Ohio State, ESPN, 2:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 Illinois vs. Game 2 winner, 6:30 p.m.
Game 7: No. 3 Purdue vs. Game 3 winner, 9 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 8: Game 4 winner vs. Game 5 winner, 1:40 p.m.
Game 9: Game 6 winner vs. Game 7 winner, 4:05 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 10: Game 8 winner vs. Game 9 winner, 3:30 p.m.

BIG 12 (Ford Center -- Oklahoma City)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Baylor, 12:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Colorado, 3 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Iowa State, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 5: No. 1 Kansas vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, 12:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Game 2 winner, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Missouri vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 9:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 6 p.m.

PAC-10 (Staples Center -- Los Angeles)

FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Oregon State vs. No. 9 Stanford, 9 p.m.
Game 2: No. 7 Washington State vs. No. 10 Oregon, 11:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 3: No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Arizona, 3 p.m.
Game 4: No. 1 Washington vs. Game 1 winner, 5:30 p.m.
Game 5: No. 3 California vs. No. 6 USC, 9 p.m.
Game 6: No. 2 UCLA vs. Game 2 winner, 11:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 7: Game 3 winner vs. Game 4 winner, 9 p.m.
Game 8: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 11:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 6 p.m.

SEC (St. Pete Times Forum -- Tampa)

FIRST ROUND
Thursday, March 12
Game 1: E4 Kentucky vs. W5 Ole Miss, 1 p.m.
Game 2: W3 Mississippi State vs. E6 Georgia, 3:15 p.m.
Game 3: W4 Alabama vs. E5 Vanderbilt, 7:30 p.m.
Game 4: E3 Florida vs. W6 Arkansas, 9:45 p.m.
SECOND ROUND
Friday, March 13
Game 5: W1 LSU vs. Game 1 winner, 1 p.m.
Game 6: E2 South Carolina vs. Game 2 winner, 3:15 p.m.
Game 7: E1 Tennessee vs. Game 3 winner, 7:30 p.m.
Game 8: W2 Auburn vs. Game 4 winner, 9:45 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Saturday, March 14
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, ESPN2, 1 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, ESPN2, 3:15 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Sunday, March 15
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, 1 p.m.

Sunday's Running Bracket Blog

There are plenty of meaningful games starting with Purdue @ Michigan State. I will have a close eye on some other matchups taking place later today:

• Virginia Tech @ Florida State, 2pm
• Illinois State v. Northern Iowa (MVC Tournament Final), 205pm
• Old Dominion v. VCU (CAA Tournament Semifinal), 300pm -- These two schools hate each other with a passion unlike any other except for maybe ...
  
• Duke @ North Carolina, 400pm
• Northwestern @ Ohio State, 500pm
• Towson v. George Mason (CAA Tournament Semifinal), 530pm
• Clemson @ Wake Forest, 600pm
• Charleston v. Davidson (Southern Conference Tournament Semifinal), 600pm
• Portland v. St. Mary's (WCC Tournament Semifinal), 1130pm -- I will not watch this one, but a loss by St. Mary's may delay the posting of Monday's bracket projections.

* Michigan State put the chokehold on Purdue in the 2nd half and demonstrated why they have a legitimate chance at a #1 seed. Meanwhile, the Boilers have played themselves into a 7/8 seed. Though they lost two games without Robbie Hummel, this is who they are.

* #1 seed American squeaks by Army in the Patriot League, 61-60.

* While Tennessee is certainly in the NCAA Tournament, the unanticipated home loss to Alabama will have bearing on their seeding. Chances are that we will not see a SEC team on the top 6 seed lines.

* Right as Virginia Tech storms back into the game, Delaney and Allen get their 4th fouls.

* In a minute of watching the MVC Tournament Final, the lead has changed twice. Osiris Eldridge is scorching hot!

* VCU is struggling. Down 24-16 to their rival Old Dominion, Eric Maynor (3) and Gerald Lee (2) have combined for a total of five points.

* Congratulations to Northern Iowa, who survived an onslaught of deep shots from Illinois State to start the overtime session. They won 60-57 in the Lou.

* VT has lost, signifying that they must win two in Atlanta to be in (assuming the second will be against the ACC's top 3 teams). A tall order.

* Just received a text from Clement, who is at the CAA Tournament in Richmond. Joey Rodriguez has "countless" turnovers. In visiting the CAA website, I can now report that "countless" equals 2. You can also visit CAA Courtside for ... courtside chatter from the CAA Tournament. After a 30-point explosion yesterday, Gerald Lee has 2 points. VCU up 32-30 right before the under 16 in the second half.

* VCU defeats ODU. George Mason fans can watch the game and participate in a live blog here.

* Coach K is complaining, but what's new? UNC up 6 at the under 12 in the second half.

* UNC wins against Duke despite a lackluster defensive performance. Mason defeats Towson for the 15th straight time. Yes, 15 straight wins.

* For the second time in two days, a bid may be stolen from another conference. Charleston defeats Davidson for the second time. Congratulations to Bobby Cremins! That said, it makes the brackets that much tougher.

Saturday's Running Bracket Blog

* Preseason Automatic Bid Picks: 1 of 4
* Pre-Conference Tournament Automatic Bid Picks: 1 of 4

* Cornell was the first team to win an automatic bid. Radford outlasted VMI to take home the Big South crown. East Tennessee State triumphs in the A-Sun Final. It's a sad day when an OVC Tournament Final does not include Murray State. Nevertheless, we congratulate Morehead State, who are going back to the NCAA Tournament after a 25-year hiatus.

* Pitt's sweep of UConn will put the Panthers among the top two overall seeds. UConn will stay on the 1 line, likely in the #3 overall seed, if UNC beats Duke tomorrow. Staying at the top of the heap, Louisville, Kansas and Washington claim their conferences outright.

* Michigan just revived its season and Minnesota is back on the bubble. There will be a maximum of seven teams from the Big Ten. The Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis will determine the NCAA Tournament fate of as many as five teams, who are within half a game of .500 in conference play.

* Boston College, behind their 9-7 ACC record coupled with two wins over teams on my top seed line, is in the tournament for certain.

* C'est la vie, Cincinnati and Vermont. It was nice knowing you. Kentucky continued digging itself six feet deep. Maryland did not help themselves out after blowing a 13-point lead at rival UVa.

* Kansas State and South Carolina win games they absolutely could not lose. New Mexico continues to win, this time on the road against Wyoming. Rhode Island does not. I am anticipating that they will need to at least make the finals of the A-10 Tournament in order to earn at-large consideration.

* Syracuse starts strong (OOC wins against Kansas on a semi-away floor and at Memphis) and ends strong (wins last four in Big East to finish 11-7 in conference). Kinda like an Oreo with the orange creme that no one likes. Could Marquette fall to the 6 line?

* Texas A&M scores one of the biggest wins of the day against Missouri and they hop Kansas State and will hop Oklahoma State unless they score the master stroke against Oklahoma in the bedlam game. Though lower in magnitude, Auburn scores a comfortable win against LSU. That's 8 of their last 9, so of which are against clear tournament-caliber competition.

* Penn State lost a double overtime decision at Iowa, but they should be in the tournament. It will definitely hurt their seeding and at least push them into the 8/9 game (or worse).

* Creighton has been thumped by Illinois State, who will face Northern Iowa for the automatic bid. This was Creighton's first loss since January 17. They are likely to remain in the field of 65, but their bid may be stolen next week.

UPDATE: Creighton has suddenly become huge fans of Butler (a winner tonight against Wright State), Gonzaga, and the winner of Portland/Pepperdine (faces St. Mary's).

* Who's watching the WBC? Neither am I.

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 7, 2009

If you were a bubble team and you had a game this week, there’s a good chance you fell out as a result of losing a game that you should have won. Among those ranks were Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame and Arizona – all of whom lost games that they either should have won or absolutely needed to. Replacing them are Oklahoma State and St. Mary’s (welcome back, Patty Mills), and two teams seemingly chosen from out of thin air – Providence and Auburn. The argument in favor of Auburn is their surge to 2nd place in the SEC West gives them momentum leading into their game against LSU as well as the SEC Tournament. (Among the automatic bids, I was forced to discard Belmont after their loss to East Tennessee State.)

On the cusp of the tournament are Texas A&M, Rhode Island and South Carolina. The Aggies are on a roll, having won their last 5, but how many of them were they not supposed to win? A win versus Missouri assuredly makes the win streak legitimate and puts them in the field (for now). The same can be said about Rhode Island, though they lack a marquee win (best win: @ Penn State). As for South Carolina, 10-6 would have been good enough had they defeated Tennessee at home on Thursday. Without that win, the ‘Cocks are a big 0-fer against the RPI Top 50.

When you think of the first 12 teams out of my field and who can benefit the most, look no further than the Cougars of Washington State. If they somehow defeat their rivals (Washington) on the road, they will have claimed road victories against the 1st, 2nd and 4th place teams in the conference – all of whom are unquestioned tournament teams. Despite their 13 losses, no other team on the bubble can stake that claim. Meanwhile, Michigan (@ Minnesota) and Northwestern (@ Ohio State) may knock Ohio State from the 7th spot with road victories.

Who Slid One Seed Line?
Kansas State, St. Mary’s


Who Benefited by One Seed Line?
Providence, Virginia Tech

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)
2: Louisville, Michigan State (Big Ten), Oklahoma (Big XII), Wake Forest
3: Memphis (C-USA), Villanova, Kansas, Washington (PAC 10)
4: Xavier (A-10), Clemson, Marquette, Missouri
5: Florida State, Illinois, California, Butler (Horizon)
6: Tennessee (SEC), Syracuse, Gonzaga, UCLA
7: Penn State, Purdue, Boston College, Texas
8: West Virginia, LSU, Arizona State, Utah
9: Wisconsin, Creighton (MVC), BYU, Minnesota
10: Ohio State, Siena (Metro Atlantic), UNLV (MWC), Dayton
11: Providence, Maryland, Davidson (Southern), Virginia Tech
12: Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Utah St. (WAC), St. Mary’s (WCC)
13: Auburn, Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), Vermont (America East), VCU (CAA)
14: North Dakota State (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), American (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: CORNELL (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), VMI (Big South), Robert Morris (Northeast),
16: E. Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC)


IN: Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s, Providence, Auburn, E. Tennessee State
OUT: Georgetown, Florida, Notre Dame, Arizona, Belmont

Last Four In: Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Providence, Auburn
Last Four Out: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Arizona
Next Four Out: Michigan, Georgetown, Northwestern, Miami-FL
Next Four Out: Washington State, New Mexico, Notre Dame, Tulsa

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12
Big Ten: 7/11
Big East: 8/16
Big XII: 6/12
Pac-10: 4/10
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
A-10: 2/14
West Coast: 2/9

Answers from the Editor - Bracket Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Late last night/early this morning, Clement posed a series of questions. Tonight, I provide answers to those questions that surround the NCAA Tournament.

"Quin Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher.

Q: With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?
A: For starters, I projected Oklahoma was the #6 overall team in the Big XII despite projecting them to win their conference tournament. Why is this the case? They lack the quality wins that the top 3 Big East and top 2 ACC teams have. Not to mention, Oklahoma has often played to the level of their competition, needing to pull away late in games against inferior competition. While "style points" get scrutinized more often in college football, it will be difficult to argue that OU has a stronger resume than the aforementioned teams, as well as Michigan State and Wake Forest.

"Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own).
Q: Is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?
A: Yes. It was already going to be tough sledding for Marquette with James. Without James, Jerel McNeal is a shell of himself. In two road games against Louisville and Pittsburgh, he has shot 11-for-43 from the field.

"Really an Upset?"
Q: Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?
A: Because of their horrible strength of schedule, I have not drank the LSU Kool-Aid yet. Don't get me wrong, they have some quality guard play and Trent Johnson is an excellent Xs and Os coach. That said, the Purdue's loss was more surprising, because I thought they were turning the corner. I thought wrong. That Kevin Coble is some player!

"Rambling Wreck!"
Q: Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?
A: Absolutely. Miami lost a must-win game against an ill-disciplined yet talented Georgia Tech team. It was a must-win game because the value of their best OOC win is decreasing by the minute. It's not quite over for Miami because bubble teams continue to lose and they can make up plenty of ground during Championship Week.

"It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Q: Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?
A: First off, thank you, Boyz II Men. Second, the Florida/Kentucky tussle this weekend is an at-large bid elimination game. Third, I think it is possible for the winner to have a chance an at-large bid if they make the SEC Tournament Final.

"Mired in the Muck"
Q: Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Siena, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or, was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?
A: It's too early to say. These smaller tournaments must first happen, but Creighton and Siena are definitely benefitting while St. Mary's and Davidson are not far behind. Other potential winners are Rhode Island and Washington State. Both are peaking at the right time and have resumes that look better with every passing loss by every bubble team.

***Bonus Question***
"Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan.
Q: What are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.
A: Here are my thoughts ...
Penn State: IN
Wisconsin: IN
Ohio State: IN
Minnesota: IN
Michigan: OUT
Northwestern: OUT

Further Proof Describing How Little We Know

If last night taught us something, teams on the right side of the bubble were losers and teams on the wrong side were winners.

There were some crushing losses ...

• Kentucky loses AT HOME to Georgia ... get that resume ready, Billy Gillispie!
• Miami loses to Georgia Tech. 6-9 is not good enough and neither is 7-9 with the away win at Kentucky diminishing value by the nanosecond
• Florida loses to Mississippi State ... a second straight NIT trip. Clement can tell you all about how that feels. At least, the Gators have football. Forever.
• UAB loses by double digits to UTEP
  

Some lost opportunities ...

• Va Tech loses to UNC
• Houston fights hard, but comes up short against Memphis

Even off of the bubble, some teams lost a seed line with unexpected losses ...

• Northwestern upsets Purdue on the road, making it two away wins against the Big Ten elite (is that an oxymoron?).
• LSU loses a home decision against Vanderbilt, who shot 52% from the field.
• Kansas gets thrashed on senior night against the Ragin' Voskuhls!
  
• Boston College loses a close one at NC State.

And others seizing the moment or just plain taking care of business ...

• Mizzou and Pitt scoring big victories adding to their resumes ... is Duke now the 4th best team as some dude noted on Monday which was met by criticism.
  
• UNLV, BYU, A&M, WVU, Tulsa and San Diego State all won games they were supposed to win.
• Minnesota all but confirmed their ticket to the Big Dance with a 10-0 run to end the game against Wisconsin.
  

This is March Madness. Two weeks early. Savor it.

10 Questions to the Editor - Bracket-Style [Mid-Week Edition]

Pay reads my thoughts sometimes. Probably not vice versa though.

After 3 successful weeks - and just about 10 days until Selection Sunday - I decided to disturb Pay's week and throw out a pick-six of questions (of course, you know that means SEVEN) after three nights of pre-March Madness.

Don't worry, we'll be back this weekend too.

Yep, we know TO got released. But we're here to talk brackets. Not about his quarterback. In fact, we knew it when it was reported at midnight by Michael Smith on Sportscenter. Yeah, what!?!?!
Credit: Millions of Hilarious Google Image Searches

1) "Quinn Snyder Who?"
Blake Griffin goes for 16 and 20, yet the Oklahoma Sooners lose to Missouri (who is 18-0 at home btw). Meanwhile, Kansas loses @ (2-12 in conference) Texas Tech in a relative 19-point laugher. With that in mind: has Oklahoma ruined their chances at a #1 seed?

2) "Missing in Action"
Marquette thumped Pitt in the opening stretch of the second half - with a 21-5 run out of the gates - but couldn't seal the deal, ultimately losing 90-75 to DeJuan Blair and company (largely due to a 21-2 run of their own). Question is: is the loss of senior guard and captain Dominic James simply too devastating to take the Golden Eagles seriously come tourney time?

3) "Really an Upset?"
Let's make it simple. Whose home loss was more surprising: LSU's to Vanderbilt or Purdue's to Northwestern?

4) "Rambling Wreck!"
Admit it, after tonight's loss to Georgia Tech...even the staunchest Miami (Florida-style) supporters have to shut their yaps. Right?

5) "It's So Hard To Say Goodbye..."
Is it possible that both SEC stalwarts Kentucky (losing to Georgia) and Florida (losing to Mississippi State) sealed their bubble fates with damaging losses tonight?

6) "Mired in the Muck"
Is it possible a mid-major (i.e. Creighton, Sienna, St. Mary's, Davidson) was the big winner with SO MANY bubble teams losing in the past 48 hours (Va. Tech, Maryland, Florida, Kentucky, Miami (Fl), Georgetown, Notre Dame, Kansas State)? Or was it a major conference squad like Providence, Texas A&M, or Arizona (who does draw Cal tomorrow)?

***Bonus Question***
7) "Isn't this a FOOTBALL Conference?"
No it isn't a trivial question this time. Minnesota moves to 9-8 in the Big 10 with a HUGE home victory against Wisconsin. Next up: Michigan. Problem is, what are we mere mortals to make of Big Ten bubble squads Penn State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan, and even Northwestern? A simple in/out (as of tonight) would suffice.

Quote of the night: Shawn Taggart of Memphis.
“I feel like a lot of people out there disrespect our conference,” Taggart said. “A lot of people act like it’s the worst conference in the country. To keep winning like this is a big deal. I’m sure if you put North Carolina in this conference, they wouldn’t go undefeated. It’s very tough.”

Oh yeah, here's a clip to make you smile (especially YOU Pay).
Credit to Dan B via YouTube on this gem.

March Madness: Examining the Top of the Class

While it’s unrealistic to pretend there are only 4 finite teams who will contend for the national championship, it’s round enough a number to work with.

Below are (my) the 4 teams, highlighting one key performer - you might not automatically assume - whom might just be cutting down a pair of nets come March Madness.

Yes, that’s 1 for going to the Final Four and 1 after the National Championship game. Duh.

While these are FAR from role players, they are also not the “it” guys…yet.

And no, I'm still not looking for the next Josh Pace. Or am I???


UCONN Huskies

Senior leadership, in the frontcourt, is highly underrated.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Jerome Dyson’s injury is HUGE news for the #1 team in the country. Obviously, Clement. However, the recent play of Hasheem Thabeet (minus against a guy named Blair) and depth in the backcourt (Austrie, Price, & Walker) doesn’t mean UCONN is up the creek without a paddle. In fact, it might be the performance of leading scorer and 34 minute/per game power forward Jeff Adrien that propels UCONN to a third national championship.

Why? Adrien is often forgotten on the front line due largely to Thabeet; however, he’s a senior with a ton of experience, an affinity to bang, and offers up plenty of mismatches in the post. He would also draw assignments including Hansbrough, Griffin, Henderson, and Clark in the post.


North Carolina Tar Heels

If Ellington can draw extra defenders, UNC may be unguardable.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Hansbrough is the stud, Green is the glue, and Lawson is the dynamic playmaker. So why am I calling on Wayne Ellington? The former Mr. Basketball in Texas has been way too up-and-down this season. In fact, I consider him an outright top 10-recruit B-U-S-T. However, if he can go Ben Gordon on the field during the NCAA Tournament, he becomes a matchup nightmare and makes me settle up to dine on some crow.

Why? While UNC is far from a 3-point shooting team (which is a GOOD thing in Williams’ system), Ellington can put up 4 or 5 treys in less than 10 minutes and really deflate teams attempting to score with the Heels. He also afford the Heels a chance to break out of the funks many half-court defenses have attempted to put them in.


Oklahoma Sooners

Pay brought up to me the Terminator's brother; however, I took a different route.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Blake Griffin, as evident yet again after a 40 point, 23 rebound performance against Texas Tech, is going to be the most talented performer come tournament time. The concussion won’t linger either. Don’t worry about the Terminator. However, that didn’t exactly work out for the likes of fellow Big XII studs Kevin Durant and Michael Beasley (combined 1-2) in recent tournaments. Fortunately for Griffin, he has a talented roster surrounding him and a coach (while very young) who is pushing the right buttons; especially in Big XII play. Enter into the equation a pair of guards, Willie Warren and Tony Crocker, who w ill likely each need a pair of games for Oklahoma – while ranked #2 in the country – to appear to be the real thing. They couldn’t carry the Sooners sans-Griffin against Texas & Kansas, but with the big man back…they can be vital parts, even if they aren’t legitimate #1-scoring options.

Why? If neither can become a legitimate 18-20 point scorer come tourney time opposite Griffin, Oklahoma appears one of the “easier” 1-seeds to draw. Yeah, I said it.


Pittsburgh Panthers

Pitt's "Big 3" (Fields, Young, & Blair) can't do it alone. They'll need a Jermaine Dixon-type role player to help put them over the edge to cut down a pair of nets.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

DeJuan Blair and the Panthers can’t afford to make the same mistake they always seem to (yet nobody every mentions); specifically, putting too much stock in the Big East Tournament and coming out flat in the second weekend of the real March Madness. Perhaps if all there games could be in Madison Square Garden, the Panthers would have made at least one Final Four – or an Elite Eight no less - over the past decade. Perhaps with enough talent now – especially with NBA-ready Sam Young and 7-assist-a-game Levance Fields – Jamie Dixon finally has his ticket to reach a Final Four. I still am skeptical because of their reliance on the aforementioned conference tournament, as well as lacking a sharpshooter from beyond the 3-point line, and Blair’s ability to pile up fouls and “unclog” the post (while on the bench). Enter into the equation three names: Brad Wanamaker, Jermaine Dixon, and Tyrell Biggs. All three need to be that “extra” option – whether starting or off the bench – who can provide more than energy & foul relief (which Pitt will need with non-Big East refs). The real key is hitting open shots (particularly 3s) and allowing the Panthers to accumulate early leads, thus putting less pressure on Blair to stay in the game.

Why? Without them, Pitt is vulnerable as a bruising team who might run into a Curry, Harden, Delaney, McClinton, Calathes, or even a (homer pick) Maynor before the end of the second weekend. One shooter can put the Panthers into an offensive battle, which isn’t their forte necessarily.


Just for fun, here’s a list of some other “names” to consider…

"The Colonel" will need his senior guard to defer far more than take over.
Credit: Yahoo! Sports

Louisville’s up-and-down-to-the-extreme Edgar Sosa. Especially in the closing minutes of tight games.

Memphis’s Shawn Taggart seems to have all the pieces; yet, I remain as skeptical as ever. As long as he lives in the paint – and away from the longball – he offers up plenty-of-athleticism-and-difficult-to-matchup-with-size to bring on one key word: mismatch.

Duke’s is-he-starting-or-more-effective-off-the-bench Greg Paulus. Especially if Duke isn’t hitting its threes early on and its opponent is. In fact, nobody can save Duke if THAT happens. And it will…

(Mistake) Wake Forest’s phenomenal-freshman–who-does-more-without-the-ball-in-his-hands-on-offense-than-with-it Al Farouq-Amin. Especially if Jeff Teague isn’t decisive down the stretch with the basketball. This team is WAY too average the past four weeks.

Michigan State’s I-turn-over-the-ball-far-more-often-than-I-reward-teammates-in-the-post sophomore guard Durrell Summers. Especially since the dynamic sixth man might see more minutes than most starters for Izzo’s Spartans. Lucas better get healthy, too.

…sorry, I’ll try and find a West Coast school…

UCLA’s sensational-freshmen-who-needs-to-boost-his-draft-stock-ASAP Jrue Holliday, who appears unwilling to take big shots – especially inside the 3-point line – in the closing minutes of game. Especially when Collison needs to kick it out to a perimeter option.

Sorry Marquette, Clemson, Villanova, Missouri, Xavier, LSU, Butler, Kansas, Arizona State, and Gonzaga…you just don’t make the cut…yet.

Pay's brackets definitely got a shakeup (or two) after last night's hiccups.
Just like Jimmy Rollings, if you wanna be a champion, you gotta want it!

Desperation is a Stinky Cologne

Georgetown and Cincinnati confirmed that notion this evening.

After holding a firm 15-point lead in the Garden, Georgetown blew it. Plain and simple. Though they were hard done by a timeout that should not have been granted and a foul that was not in the last 15 seconds of regulation, it never should have even been a game at that juncture. Three letters summarize my thoughts. N-I-T. JT3 should pay back his salary a la Bob Knight. His players looked clueless and underprepared in the closing minutes.

Meanwhile, Oklahoma State won a must-win game against fellow bubble team Kansas State behind the leadership of senior guard Byron Eaton. 15 for 15 from the charity stripe. 'Nuff said.

At Cameron Indoor, Duke was behind for much of the night but they seem to be in firm position with under a minute left behind some hot shooting by Kyle Singler. In an amazing development, Leonard Hamilton is still wearing his tie.

Also, Maryland, Ohio State, Utah and Syracuse are knotted up in close games, all with severe at-large bid implications.

Our Time Is Now: ACC Breakdown and pre-Tournament Forecasting

A few nights ago, I broke down the Big East and predicted what each non-lock Big East team still vying for an at-large bid needed to do in order to dance in two weeks. Today, it’s the ACC’s turn.

To date, I posit that no less than five ACC teams have punched their ticket for The Big Dance and no more than three teams will be considered outside of the mix unless they win the automatic bid at the ACC Tournament in Atlanta. That leaves four teams vying for at-large bids. This piece takes a look at each of these teams’ key wins, projects their remaining regular season games, and determines what work needs to be done. To make the projected record somewhat objective, I am once again using KenPom.com’s projected record, which is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the individual game predictions.

IN: UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Florida State, Clemson
OUT: NC State, Virginia, Georgia Tech
NOT YET IN: Boston College, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Miami-FL

Boston College 20-9 (8-6)
Key Wins: @ UNC, v. Duke, UAB (N), v. Florida State, @ Maryland, v. Providence
Remaining Games: @ NC State (L), v. Georgia Tech (W)
Projected Record: 21-10 (9-7)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-3

Maryland 18-10 (7-7)
Key Wins: v. UNC, Michigan State (N), Miami-FL (S), v. Virginia Tech, v. Michigan, v. Vermont
Remaining Games: v. Wake Forest (L), @ Virginia (W)
Projected Record: 19-11 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 1-6

Virginia Tech 17-11 (7-7)
Key Wins: @ Wake Forest, Clemson (AS), @ Miami-FL, Boston College (S)
Remaining Games: v. UNC (L), @ Florida State (L)
Projected Record: 17-13 (7-9)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 3-5

Miami 17-10 (6-8)
Key Wins: v. Wake Forest, Florida State (S), Boston College (2), Maryland (S)
Remaining Games: @ Georgia Tech (W), v. NC State (W)
Projected Record: 19-10 (8-8)
Record v. ACC Top 5: 4-5

As a result of this exercise, Boston College finishes 9-7, which ties them with Clemson; however, Clemson wins the head-to-head tie-breaker. That said, BC earns the 6th seed. Maryland takes the tie-breaker for 7th place over Miami by virtue of their win over North Carolina. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech would finish 7-9 (even though I think they will split their last two) and would face Miami in the 8/9 clash.

********

So, what does that leave each team to do secure an at-large bid?

Boston College: Nothing (so long as they have 9 conference wins given their high number of quality wins)

Maryland: Win at least 1 game (likely versus NC State) and compete admirably against the #2 seed (likely Duke)

Miami: Win at least 1 game (likely versus Virginia Tech) and play like they belong in the NCAA Tournament against UNC

Virginia Tech: Win 1 game (likely versus Miami) and hope that no bids are stolen in the Horizon League, Conference USA, the Mountain West, the A-10 and the West Coast Conference. Also, Tech would definitely be in the NCAA Tournament with 2 wins (likely versus Miami and UNC).

NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections - March 2, 2009

If you did not realize yesterday, we have entered March and are less than two weeks (and counting) from Selection Sunday. Out of the many years I have done this exercise, this has been the toughest. Why? There is a higher number of teams among the Last Four In and the Last Eight Out who have signature wins. Simply look at some of the teams that our top 4 overall seeds have lost to (v. Georgetown, @ Maryland, @ Providence, @ Michigan) and you will begin to understand that the Tournament Selection Committee already has with 13 days of basketball yet to played.

At the top, I decided to elevate Duke based on two crucial road wins against teams that we have in the field. Though the officials made as many as three errors in the final four minutes (all favoring Duke) against Virginia Tech, this is an improved team with Elliott Williams as a starter. Louisville, who continues to rack up quality wins, inches closer to the #1 line, while Oklahoma is hurting badly in the style points department.

In the next two weeks, there will be heavy movement between the 4th and 9th seed lines, as many of these teams will face each other in the middle and latter stages of their conference tournaments. Meanwhile, nothing is shored up on the bubble. In a week that expected to see shrinkage in the number of teams vying for spots, we saw more teams join the fray. Though not in the field, Michigan, Providence, Oklahoma State and Washington State earned a closer look with some unexpected wins taking shape.

Normally, we look at the Last Four In. This time, let’s look at the Last Seven In, because that is when the headache of choosing these evenly matched teams begun.

* My 28th at-large bid, Virginia Tech, won a shocker at Littlejohn, and nearly overcame a horrible first 10 minutes against Duke to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. While only 7-7 and with bad losses against Seton Hall and Georgia, Tech has the look and feel of a tournament team, with road wins against Wake Forest and Clemson.

* My 29th at-large bid, Georgetown, added another quality win on a floor other than their own by defeating Villanova. This gave them a real chance at finishing 8-10 in the Big East, which would likely gain them the #11 seed in the Big East Tournament. Two wins, which is very possible, and they are in with no questions asked.

* My 30th at-large bid, Maryland, willed themselves to victory against NC State in a game they badly needed and that is the profile of a tournament team. Additionally, the Terrapins have elevated their play and now hold signature victories over two teams among my top 7 overall seeds. One point of information: Maryland’s inclusion meant that Miami would not be in the field as the ACC will not include a 9th team.

* My 31st at-large bid, Florida, is in a world of hurt. They have a weak SOS and their best win was against Washington on a neutral court in November. Two wins this week (see assumptions) and they have a puncher’s chance at the NCAA Tournament.

* My 32nd at-large bid, Notre Dame, is playing better despite not achieving results. If they defeat Villanova, then that gives them wins v. Louisville, Villanova, Texas (N), Georgetown, and @ Providence. All things considered, Mike Brey should consider investing in a tie. Seriously.

* My 33rd at-large bid, Arizona, disappointing this weekend in the Pacific Northwest. In a game that would have been an ornament on their resume, Arizona blew a double-digit second-half lead at Washington. That said, Arizona can keep its streak of tournament bids going, but they must first sweep Cal and Stanford. Good luck.

* My final at-large bid is Kansas State. Kansas State? If they can defeat Oklahoma State in Stillwater and do not slip up versus Colorado, they are certainly in, as that would give them a 10-6 clip with a split against Missouri and road wins against the #2-4 teams in the Big XII South.

As I said, this was the toughest Last Four Out decision that I have to make so far this season. As a result of unanticipated losses on Saturday and concern about how they will play in their remaining games, I omitted Kentucky and South Carolina, who both had little margin for error. As mentioned, not much separates those Last 7 In and the Last 9 Out (the 9th is Washington State).

Who Slid One Seed Line?
West Virginia, Penn State, Ohio State, Maryland

Who Benefited by One Seed Line?
Texas, Creighton, BYU, Florida

Key Assumptions This Week
* UConn wins at Pitt
* UNC defeats Duke
* Minnesota wins versus Michigan
* Virginia Tech splits against UNC (home) and Florida State (away)
* Georgetown sweeps St. John’s (away) and DePaul (home – does it matter?)
* Florida takes out Mississippi State in Starkville and Kentucky at home
* Notre Dame versus Villanova and St. John’s
* Arizona pulls out a Bay Area team sweep in Tucson
* Kansas State wins at least one of two at Oklahoma State and versus Colorado
* Maryland achieves a split versus Wake Forest and at Virginia

Next Update: Friday, March 6 (results ending Thursday, March 5)

If you have any questions, comments, or just wish to send a shout, shoot me a line at phashemi@gmail.com.

The Seedings
1: UConn (Big East), North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Duke (ACC)
2: Louisville, Oklahoma (Big XII), Michigan State (Big Ten), Wake Forest
3: Kansas, Villanova, Clemson, Memphis (C-USA)
4: Marquette, Washington (PAC 10), Xavier (A-10), Illinois
5: Florida State, Missouri, Purdue, Arizona State
6: Butler (Horizon), Syracuse, UCLA, Gonzaga (WCC)
7: California, Boston College, LSU (SEC), Texas
8: Wisconsin, Utah, West Virginia, Tennessee
9: Dayton, Minnesota, Creighton (MVC), BYU
10: Virginia Tech, Penn State, Davidson (Southern), Ohio State
11: Georgetown, Florida, Siena (Metro Atlantic), Notre Dame
12: UNLV (MWC), Maryland, Arizona, Kansas State
13: Utah State (WAC), Vermont (America East), Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), VCU (CAA)
14: North Dakota State (Summit), Buffalo (MAC), American (Patriot), Stephen F. Austin (Southland)
15: Cornell (Ivy), Weber State (Big Sky), VMI (Big South), Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
16: Robert Morris (Northeast), Tennessee-Martin (Ohio Valley), Morgan State (MEAC), Long Beach State (Big West), Alabama State (SWAC)

IN: Virginia Tech, Georgetown, Kansas State
OUT: Kentucky, Miami-FL, South Carolina

Last Four In: Florida, Notre Dame, Arizona, Kansas State
Last Four Out: Miami, Kentucky, South Carolina, Michigan
Next Four Out: Cincinnati, Providence, Oklahoma State, St. Mary’s

Seeding Summary (Multi-Bid Conferences Only in Order of Percentage)
ACC: 8/12
Big Ten: 7/11
Big East: 9/16
Pac-10: 5/10
Big XII: 5/12
Mountain West: 3/9
SEC: 3/12
A-10: 2/14

Hello, March!

A couple of months ago, I made a promise to do regular (daily) posts dedicated to college basketball. Unfortunately, the requirements for the day job over the last two months necessitated that I work beyond my reach and made my promise as earnest as Kenny Hasbrouck's 2-for-20 performance from the field on Friday night. I thank Clement for being the real thought leader behind this tiny operation over the last few months to keep us afloat.

That said, this project ended on Thursday night, I used Friday to recuperate and now I am back. Not to mention, it's March and I would have reached deep into the reserves regardless. Spanning the globe, I found this piece by Brian at The Bracket Project which uses a scoring rubric that seems vaguely familiar. This just in, I am average. Exactly zero standard deviations from the mean. Eat your heart out, Curtis from the Orlando Sentinel (-0.1 average variance)! Seriously, I am looking to enter the upper echelon of bracketologists; however, I stand by the fact that the teams I did not include in the field (Oregon and South Alabama) had no right being in the NCAA Tournament.

The real reason I am writing to you today is talk about the marriage between college basketball and television. If you ever doubted this, just take a gander at my local CBS TV affiliate's schedule.

12pm Marquette @ Louisville
2pm Missouri @ Kansas
4pm Michigan State @ Illinois

How will Marquette handle the Louisville full-court pressure without their floor general? After a phenomenal February, will Missouri complete the season sweep of Kansas on the 1st of March? Which defense will reign supreme when two of the top 12 (adjusted defensive efficiency) face off in Champaign? All teams are ranked. All are on CBS. I rest my case.

Enjoy the bball!