2007 NFL Scouting Combine Highlights
by Armin Mohajeri

Why does the NFL Combine have so much value tied to it? Why are season-long accomplishments thrown out the window for a few quick drills? It can make or break a rookie’s draft status, and more importantly, their paycheck. We all remember Mike Mamula, the poster-child for overrating a player based on his numbers at the combines. It’s also a place where players like Tom Brady get overlooked. However, teams are always looking for that diamond in the rough. Coaches are looking for that player that may have lacked the coaching that they think they can offer. Potential is the word that dominates all thought processes.

Quarterbacks

Ohio State QB Troy Smith seems to be the only big name QB that may have slightly hurt himself at the combines. Michigan State’s Drew Stanton, Houston’s Kevin Kolb and Florida’s Chris Leak looked decent. The surprise of the combine was Central Missouri State QB Toby Korrodi, who had the strongest arm and showed pinpoint accuracy.

Running Backs

Oklahoma’s Adrian Peterson and California’s Marshawn Lynch were hoping to run in the 4.35 range. Neither reached that level, but neither did damage to themselves. Lynch ran a 4.46 while Peterson only ran a 4.38. Auburn’s Kenny Irons ran a 4.46, though at his size, he probably should have been closer to Peterson’s time to impress. Ohio State’s Antonio Pittman ran a 4.4, as did Arizona’s Chris Henry. At Henry’s size (220), he probably just helped himself a lot. Minnesota’s Gary Russell probably took himself completely out of the draft by running successive 4.8s. Brian Leonard of Rutgers, who wants to be rated as a halfback rather than a fullback, ran an impressive 4.5 at 240 pounds.

Receivers

Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson solidified his standing as a top 5 pick. He chose to run, putting up a 4.35. At 6’4”, 235, he is everything David Boston was, without the cocaine or steroids. USC’s Dwayne Jarrett chose not to run, intensifying rumors that he is running in the 4.7s, while Tennessee’s Robert Meacham ran in the high 4.3s, possibly moving himself to the mid-first round. Washington State’s Jason Hill saw his stock rise when he ran a 4.32, which is impressive as he goes around 210 pounds. Lane’s Jacoby Jones is getting a lot of attention. He is threat as a receiver and as a return man. Scouts praised his hands and route running precision. Mike Walker of Central Florida is working out with the WRs, but may even have value as a DB. He is 6’2”, 200 pounds and runs a 4.39. Kansas State’s Yamon Figurs may be drafted just for his special teams capabilities, and the fact that he was clocked at 4.30 in the 40. Miami TE Greg Olsen may have vaulted himself into the top half of the first round, as put up a 4.45 in the 40. On the other hand, Arizona State’s Zach Miller may have crippled himself with times in the 4.8s.

Offensive Linemen

USC center Ryan Kalil solidified a spot in the first round with a very strong combine showing. However, the talk of the combine was Wisconsin offensive tackle, Joe Thomas. He ran a 4.93 in the 40, leading many to believe that the Lions could flip-flop with the Raiders to guarantee that they get Thomas in the draft. Penn State’s Levi Brown may have hurt himself with a slow 40 time. Texas guard Justin Blalock ran pedestrian times as well, however he led all at the combine in benching 225.

Defensive Linemen

Clemson DE Gaines Adams looked the part of the top ranked DE this year. He received great reviews on all of his drills. He ran a 4.64 in the 40, which was tops among DEs at the combine. Miami’s Baraka Atkins and Florida’s Jarvis Moss ran 4.7s. Central Arkansas DE Jacob Ford posted a 4.65 timing. Texas DEs, Tim Crowder and Brian Robinson had great days. Robinson showed his explosion by jumping 40+ inches in the vertical leap. No other DE was close to that number. At DT, Michigan’s Alan Branch and Louisville’s Amobi Okoye looked as good as advertised. While Branch clocked over the 5-second mark, Okoye clocked slightly under. They did 33 and 29 bench press reps respectively. UNC’s Tank Tyler led all DTs in bench press reps with 42, and Ohio State’s Quinn Pitcock had the best 40 time among DTs with a 4.93.

Linebackers

Some linebackers showed up strong. Michigan’s David Harris made a name for himself on the field this year, and backed it up in the combines with a 4.5 timing in the 40. Patrick Willis of Ole Miss solidified his ranking with a low 4.5 time. The surprises of the day were former Florida International DE turned LB Antwan Barnes who ran a blistering 4.40. New Mexico’s Quincy Black turned in a 4.42. Small schools put some speedsters in the field. Hampton’s Justin Durant and Brown’s Zak DeOssie both ran in the low 4.5s. Penn State’s Paul Posluszny may have hurt himself by timing in the 4.6s.

Defensive Backs

Several defensive backs shone. Most notably were the top rated CB and S at the combine. LSU’s Laron Landry solidified his top safety ranking by running a 4.35, and may have secured a spot in the top ten. Michigan’s Leon Hall is a physical CB, but also impressed with his 4.39 timing. Arkansas CB Chris Houston ran the fastest time at 4.32. Houston may push Hall as the top CB selected. Tennessee’s Jonathan Wade ran in the mid-4.3s, as did UNLV’s Eric Wright. Texas FS Michael Griffin helped himself with a mid-4.4 timing.

Another Masking Activity

This edition of the masking activity features three different teams. All three are not from BCS conferences and two have been ranked regularly in both polls throughout the season. Last week's activity exposed West Virginia as a clear bubble team rather than a team being characterized as one on the 8/9 seed lines.

In this edition, I've decided to eliminate the Conference RPI indicator, as conference affiliation already heavily plays its way into determining overall RPI. To the best of my knowledge, none of these teams have injuries or suspensions to key players.

Rather than rank these teams from 1 to 3, I am suggesting something different. Can any or all of these teams get into the NCAA as an at-large?

Team A
Overall Record: 22-7
RPI: 26
SOS: 69
Record v. RPI 1-50: 3-4
Record v. RPI 51-100: 4-1
Losses v. RPI 100+: 2; lost @ #132, @ #200
Non-Conf RPI: 27
Non-Conf SOS: 141
Last 10: 5-5
Road/Neutral: 9-6
RPI Top 50 wins since 1/1/07: 1

Team B
Overall Record: 21-7
RPI: 42
SOS: 100
Record v. RPI 1-50: 3-2
Record v. RPI 51-100: 4-3
Losses v. RPI 100+: 2; lost @ #191, @ #186
Non-Conf RPI: 4
Non-Conf SOS: 7
Last 10: 7-3
Road/Neutral: 13-4
RPI Top 50 wins since 1/1/07: 1

Team C
Overall Record: 24-5 (D1 games only)
RPI: 33
SOS: 115
Record v. RPI 1-50: 4-1
Record v. RPI 51-100: 3-1
Losses v. RPI 100+: 3; lost @ #142, @ #161, v. #106
Non-Conf RPI: 14
Non-Conf SOS: 24
Last 10: 7-3
Road/Neutral: 10-3
RPI Top 50 wins since 1/1/07: 0

Unbalanced Scheduling & How It Affects Bubble Teams

With conference seasons coming to a close and many people joining the college basketball universe for this next month only, I feel it is necessary to tackle the growing issue of unbalanced scheduling as it relates to five BCS conferences (Pac-10 has balanced scheduling). We'll be looking at three of the most pronounced cases of optical illusions amongst the bubble teams while also taking a look at one team whose intra-conference schedule supercedes its unassuming conference record.

Optical Illusions

Kansas St. (20-9, 9-5 Big XII): In most years, having 20 wins and 9 in conference with two to play puts you in great position for an upper seed. Not so. Among their 9 conference wins, only one (@ Texas) is against a team in the RPI Top 50. Their neutral court triumph over USC is barely holding up a nearly hollow resume. The Wildcats will need to win at least two more games to create some separation between them and other bubble teams.

Illinois (21-9, 9-6 Big Ten): Illinois may very well be the most fraudulent 9-6 team in Big Ten history. They played Ohio State and Wisconsin just once each - both losses. In this stretch where the Illini have won 6 of 7, they've beaten only one RPI Top 50 team (v. Michigan St.), who was a bubble team themselves just one week ago. In fact, 5 of their 9 conference wins were against the trio of Penn St., Minnesota, and Northwestern - who have a combined six wins in conference.

Notre Dame (22-6, 10-5 Big East): I'm not going to say anyone from ESPN even glances at this blog, but they have conveniently focused on West Virginia's weaker-than-presumed resume since the resume-masking activity last week. For that reason, I'll focus on Notre Dame, who has only boosted their resume as a result of winning games they're supposed to win and getting a great string of results lately from Maryland, Louisville, and Syracuse (sweep). In their 13 non-conference games, all of three were played against teams with a RPI better than 180 and only one was played outside the state of Indiana. Also, what is up with playing South Florida the same number of times as Georgetown, Pittsburgh, and Marquette ... combined (2)?

Better Than They Seem

Villanova (19-9, 7-7): By record, Villanova is 9th in the Big East standings. Yes, 9th. But there's a reason why a team without a superb non-conference schedule can be catapulted to 7th in SOS during the conference season whilst only playing in the 5th-best conference. It's called playing the top 6 teams by record (Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette and Notre Dame) a total of eight times - twice each for Georgetown and Notre Dame.

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 7.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

With Selection Sunday thirteen days away, teams are shooting their way up the brackets. However, the forgotten truth is that more [bubble] teams play their way out of the tournament than the opposite way around. This is why after two home wins over Wisconsin and Indiana, Michigan State shot up from 66^th to 25^th on the board. The signature win against a full-strength Wisconsin was further legitimized by the 2^nd-half resurgence in a victory over Indiana.

Speaking of the Badgers, they revisited heartbreak on Sunday, as they fell to Ohio State in a defensive struggle and ceded victory to the Big Ten regular season champions. As a result of the two losses and Ohio State finally earning a signature win to match their on-court display, they come in this week as the fourth of the 1-seeds. Following the perfect storm of results (losses for Florida & UNC) and taking care of business in Westwood, UCLA arrives this week as the #1 overall seed.

Either entering or re-entering the projected field of 65 are Illinois, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, and Kansas State. Both Tech and Syracuse have make-or-break weeks ahead of their respective conference tournaments. After weeks of thinning patience with Alabama, I was forced to leave them out after their dreadful home defeat [and sweep] to Auburn. Ditto on the Cowboys, who are now 5-8 in the Big XII and have forgotten how to defend. West Virginia is a judgment call, and this judge decided not to give full credit to the Mountaineers for defeating UCLA sans Mr. Collison. I was also forced to come to grips with reality by omitting cult-favorite/resume boaster Appalachian State. There’s no chance that the Southern Conference (RPI: 19) will get 2 bids given ASU’s jaw-dropping losses, so I’m projecting Davidson [due to the personal bias rule] who won their conference by two games.

Lastly, don’t be overly surprised (but be angry) if the WAC gets a second team in the field even if Nevada wins the conference tournament. They are the 9^th-rated conference according to the RPI – albeit, by a rather large margin – and their top seven teams won in ESPN BracketBusters games. I’m certain that if Doug Elgin was the WAC commissioner, all of North America would know about their ESPNBB record (7-2) in addition to having five RPI-top 100 teams.

For your information, the teams in bold represent automatic bids and the parentheses surrounding the regions indicate the overall seed of the top team in that region. As always, if you have any comments or questions, drop a line in the comment box.

Seed	East (3)	South (2)	Midwest (4)	West (1)
1	North Carolina	Florida	Ohio St.	UCLA
2	Wisconsin	Kansas	Texas A&M	Georgetown
3	Pittsburgh	Memphis	Duke	Southern Illinois
4	Washington St.	Virginia Tech	Nevada	Maryland
5	Vanderbilt	Oregon	Marquette	Indiana
6	USC	Virginia	UNLV	Kentucky
7	Butler	Tennessee	Arizona	Michigan St.
8	Texas	Louisville	Texas Tech	Air Force
9	BYU	Xavier	Stanford	Villanova
10	Boston College	Creighton	Notre Dame	Winthrop
11	Old Dominion	Illinois	Missouri St.	Drexel
12	Syracuse	Kansas St.	Georgia Tech	Georgia
13	Davidson	Holy Cross	Akron	Gonzaga
14	Pennsylvania	Vermont	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Sam Houston St.	Marist	E. Tennessee St.	Western Kentucky
16	Weber St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	Austin Peay	Delaware St.

Seedings
1s: UCLA, Florida, UNC, Ohio St.
2s: Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Kansas, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Duke
4s: Nevada, Washington St., Virginia Tech, Maryland
5s: Oregon, Vanderbilt, Marquette, Indiana
6s: UNLV, Kentucky, USC, Virginia
7s: Michigan St., Tennessee, Arizona, Butler
8s: Texas, Louisville, Air Force, Texas Tech
9s: Stanford, Boston College, Villanova, Xavier (Stanford and BC could not fit on the same seed line; therefore, Boston College is placed on the 10-line)
10s: BYU, Notre Dame, Creighton, Winthrop
11s: Old Dominion, Missouri St., Illinois, Drexel
12s: Georgia Tech, Georgia, Syracuse, Kansas St.
13s: Gonzaga, Holy Cross, Akron, Davidson
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Vermont
15s: Western Kentucky, Marist, Sam Houston St., E. Tennessee St.
16s: Austin Peay, Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Michigan St., Illinois, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Kansas St., Gonzaga, Sam Houston St., Western Kentucky
Out: Alabama, Purdue, West Virginia, Appalachian St., Oklahoma St., Santa Clara, Texas A&M-CC, South Alabama

Last Four In: Georgia Tech, Georgia, Syracuse, Kansas St.
Last Four Out: Appalachian St., West Virginia, Florida St., Purdue
Next Four Out: Alabama, UMass, Oklahoma St., Utah St.

Summary
ACC: 7
Big East: 7
PAC-10: 6
Big Ten: 5
Big 12: 5
SEC: 5
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2

Hopes Dashed and Revived - Clemson and Oregon

On Thursday night, two fading squads who badly needed victories on their home court against Power 16 teams had a dissimilar fate. By the end of the night, hopes were shot in Clemson while they were revitalized in Eugene.

Clemson continued their sharp ACC descent as they lost at home to Duke. While the Tigers and their fans may lament three missed Duke travel calls, one mistaken travel call against them, and a mistaken basket interference call; however, how do you get down by 23 to a team that does not know how to score consistently? Credit the fans at Littlejohn Coliseum for never giving up in the pursuit of a comeback. Also, credit Duke for buckling down on defense whenever the lead got to within two baskets.

Just minutes from halftime, Oregon trailed Washington State by double digits. When losing 6 of 8 games in a cut-throat conference, character is needed to overcome such deficits against quality opponents. Not giving in, the Ducks rallied behind Tajuan Porter to defeat the surging Cougars. Putting things in perspective, Oregon avoided being 8-8 in conference and should be in the tournament given their resume.

Additionally, following up on the Wednesday post, the 3rd best resume belonged to West Virginia, who averages a 9-seed according to a collection of bracket projections at the Comparing the Seeds page (link on the right). The first was Old Dominion and the second was Illinois. Something to think about as we move closer to the final stretch of the regular season.

A Masking Exercise

I'm neither the first to do this, nor the best. Not to mention, there's plenty of basketball to be played before Selection Sunday. However, it's important to begin masking teams so that the name of the school and the reputation it carries doesn't affect this year's resume.

In this masking exercise, we look at three resumes of teams who are firmly on the bubble. How would you rank the teams based on the criteria presented?

[RPI data collected using kenpom.com]

Team 1
Team RPI: 45
Conf RPI: 13
Record: 21-7
Conference Record: 13-3
SOS: 97
Non-Conf SOS: 38
Road/Neutral Rec: 7-5
Rec v. top 50: 3-2
Rec v. top 100: 2-3
Loss v. 101 & lower: 2; lost to #111, #299
Last 10: 9-1

Team 2
Team RPI: 43
Conf RPI: 4
Record: 19-9
Conference Record: 7-6
SOS: 24
Non-Conf SOS: 59
Road/Neutral Rec: 6-6
Rec v. top 50: 3-8
Rec v. top 100: 2-1
Loss v. 101 & lower: none
Last 10: 6-4

Team 3
Team RPI: 53
Conf RPI: 5
Record: 20-7
Conference Record: 8-6
SOS: 100
Non-Conf SOS: 272
Road/Neutral Rec: 7-6
Rec v. top 50: 2-5
Rec v. top 100: 2-1
Loss v. 101 & lower: 1; lost to #166
Last 10: 6-4

NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 6.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

Georgetown represents one of the biggest climbers this week and I am now projecting them to be the Big East’s automatic bid. A few weeks ago, they weren’t among the field, but Hibbert and Green seem unstoppable, especially when games are on the line. The injury to Aaron Gray (status undetermined) allowed me to give the Hoyas the nod for this week. Staying in the Big East, Louisville justified the Pitt slaughtering on Monday at Peterson [where Pitt almost never loses] by shell-shocking Marquette in Milwaukee on a buzzer-beating 25-foot shot.

Three changes in the land of the non-BCS conferences take place. First, despite Gonzaga’s valiant effort in a loss to Memphis, two home losses in the space of a week when the national microscope was magnified on them following the dismissal of Josh [S]Heytvelt (16ppg, 8rpg) puts them 1.5 games behind Santa Clara in the West Coast Conference and out of the current at-large picture. Second, VCU showed zero poise versus Bradley, and unfortunately, this is a microcosm of the last three weeks since their loss at Hofstra. Meanwhile, ODU seems to find a way to win no matter what the situation and have the fundamentals down pat. For those reasons and many others, we have the Monarchs projected to win in Richmond. Third, Jackson State regained first place in the SWAC, so they’re once again projected to participate in the “opening round game”.

The controversial inclusions are Drexel and Appalachian St. Appalachian St. got the nod not only due to their win at Wichita St., but also because Vanderbilt, a team they knocked off, defeated Florida. As for Drexel, they are a road machine and the selection committee loves that. After laying a major egg at William & Mary, the Dragons overcame their offensive woes behind the shooting of Mejia and the inside game of Elegar to defeat Creighton in Omaha. If both teams win out and lose in the finals of their conference tournament to the current projected champions, both will be at the whims of projected conference representatives who must take care of business during Championship Week.

The Big Ten middlers – namely, Purdue, Michigan St., and Illinois - should suffer for either scheduling only home games and/or cupcakes during non-conference play. Ultimately, a 4^th team should separate itself at the conference tournament.

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	North Carolina	Florida	Wisconsin	UCLA
2	Ohio St.	Georgetown	Kansas	Texas A&M
3	Washington St.	Southern Illinois	Memphis	Pittsburgh
4	Nevada	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt	Duke
5	Marquette	Air Force	Virginia	Kentucky
6	Butler	Oregon	USC	Indiana
7	Texas Tech	Boston College	Maryland	Stanford
8	Arizona	Louisville	Creighton	UNLV
9	Alabama	Texas	BYU	Missouri St.
10	Xavier	Tennessee	Villanova	Winthrop
11	Old Dominion	Purdue	Georgia	Appalachian St.
12	Oklahoma St.	Drexel	West Virginia	Notre Dame
13	Holy Cross	Davidson	Akron	Santa Clara
14	Pennsylvania	Texas A&M – Corpus Christi	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Vermont	South Alabama	Marist	Austin Peay
16	Delaware St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	E. Tennessee St.	Weber St.

Seedings
1s: Florida, Wisconsin, UCLA, North Carolina
2s: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Washington St., Pittsburgh
4s: Nevada, Duke, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
5s: Kentucky, Virginia, Air Force, Marquette
6s: USC, Indiana, Butler, Oregon
7s: Stanford, Boston College, Texas Tech, Maryland
8s: Arizona, UNLV, Creighton, Louisville
9s: BYU, Alabama, Missouri St., Texas
10s: Tennessee, Villanova, Winthrop, Xavier
11s: Old Dominion, Georgia, Purdue, Appalachian St.
12s: West Virginia, Drexel, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame
13s: Akron, Davidson, Santa Clara, Holy Cross
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Texas A&M CC
15s: Vermont, Marist, South Alabama, Austin Peay
16s: E. Tennessee St., Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Texas Tech, Louisville, Appalachian St., Drexel, Santa Clara
Out: Clemson, Kansas St., Florida St., VCU, Gonzaga

Last Four In: Appalachian St., Drexel, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame.
Last Four Out: Michigan St., Illinois, Bradley, Kansas St.
Next Four Out: Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Clemson, VCU

Summary
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2

Ramblings from a Rambler...

Sure, I'm Mr. NFL to most in the blogsphere...but it isn't that way once March Madness hits.

While my allegiance is almost always with the Orange up in Syracuse...this year has been downright disastrous when it's mattered the most. Tourney hopes are pretty weak at this point. Without an amazing winning streak to end the season (@Providence, Georgetown, and @ Villanova)...there's little to no chance we're in.

And then of course there's my VCU Rams. I'm a current graduate student there, already with an undergrad degree wrapped up, and I have been fiercely loyal to the team, even Derrick Reid, since I've been here. We saw a CAA Title a little over 3 years ago and man did it feel good to be there. Back when guys like BA Walker and Jesse Pellot-Rosa were freshman. Fast forward to 2007 and the two seniors have been a little flat as of late (especially losing at Hofstra, at ODU, and a pathetic drubbing from Bradley just last night in this year's Bracketbuster).

The conference tournament is merely a week away, of game-action (just under two weeks on the calendar), with a putrid schedule remaining for the league's top teams. Shame on the CAA (yes, SHAME) for this horrific lineup. Hofstra, Mason, ODU, Drexel, and VCU (yes, the big guns of the conference) won't see each other post-Bracketbuster.

Why did this happen? Probably so the "big-guns" would have a week of softies in order to be better prepared for showdowns in the conference tourney. Point is: I don't like it. I don't expect any upsets whatsoever this week...foolish or not.

So where would that leave us? [Assuming everyone wins out with their remaining two in-conference matchups]

#1. VCU [16-2] #2. ODU [15-3] #3. Hofstra [14-4] #4. Drexel [13-5]

That is your elite four of the CAA. Impressive. All worthy of a bid, in my opinion, in the NCAA Tourney. Problem is, they aren't all worthy enough to take away spots from the POWER conference squads who have a quality win or two...yet were as inconsistent as they could've possibly been with their talent (ironic, Syracuse fits that bill quite well).

Don't worry, this isn't a true Clement-tirade. I don't have the patience. I just feel frustrated when a 16-13 team gets in over someone who is 25-5. It happens. Of course, we all realize that BCS-team might be more talented and more built to compete in its major conference. But we don't take into consideration how many chances it got to beat great teams. Mid-majors get one or two major matchups a year. Usually on the road and VERY early on in the season. Good luck with that. Check in with a team like Alabama, Syracuse, Duke, Gonzaga (no longer a real mid-major), South Carolina, Oklahoma, or Michigan...and they got half-a-dozen or more marquee matchups. I get even more upset when I see two mid-level Big Ten schools get a juicy 12pm Saturday tip on ESPN while a mid-major showdown sees ESPN on one Bracketbusting Sunday.

It's just politics with the haves and have-nots. All I will say to each of the four major-contenders to the CAA tournament is this: Show up in Richmond for three days, win the conference tourney, and avoid the agony of being on the bubble.

-VCU lacks a real quality win outside of the CAA and its past 10 might not look to attractive...especially losing at home to a superior Bradley squad (5th in the MVC).
-ODU could be on-fire, but might fall early in the tourney if the refs limit their physicality.
-Hofstra has some BAD losses and may be seen as too live-or-die with their backcourt.
-Drexel seems to have the weakest resume, despite a nice win v. Creighton, in a conference that will only get 2-bids in a best-case scenario.

All of these teams, for ANY sort of hope at an at-large, must lose a nail biter in the conference tournament to have a prayer. It makes for what could be an amazing final two days in Richmond during the CAA Tournament. Hope you have ESPN 8 to be able to see any of them.

Because honestly, even with George Mason of last year (which still doesn't get nearly enough credit for what it did)...neither of the three other teams (or four if Mason makes a similar miracle run) has much of a realistic shot of getting love on Selection Sunday.

BracketBusters Fallout

Outside of Selection Sunday, the ESPN BracketBusters weekend is the most important for mid-major programs in terms of exposure to a national audience. Although the competition has become diluted by including a whopping 102 teams, it demonstrated yet again through the 13 televised games that the mid-majors can produce high quality basketball.

Performance by Conference
Big West (3-5): Double digit losses for Long Beach St. and Cal St. Fullerton can't help seeding.
Colonial (5-7): A bit deceiving. 3-1 for the top four teams in the conference. The caboose continues to let down the conference.
Horizon (7-2): Wright St. continues to gain credibility as the potential team who may win the league tournament. Butler's home loss to Southern Illinois may have been more meaningful than all seven wins.
Metro Atlantic (6-4): Nothing of import. Marist, Siena, and Loyola (MD) all win.
Mid-American (6-6): Akron trounces an outmatched Austin Peay team while Toledo falls at home to Old Dominion. If Kent State can learn to value the ball, they could win the league tournament.
Missouri Valley (5-5): So-so performance from the Valley. I expected more from the conference with the RPI of 7. SIU and Bradley took care of business while Creighton and Wichita St. disappointed. Northern Iowa and Missouri St. (to a lesser degree) lost to better teams in Nevada and Winthrop, respectively.
Ohio Valley (3-8): Ugly on all accounts.
Western Athletic (7-2): Another case of being undermatched, but the league took care of business. Utah St. and Hawaii with big road wins while Nevada continues to roll. New Mexico State gets its biggest non-conference win, although it's not enough to make a case for an at-large bid. Overall, their performance begs the question about a second bid allotment.

Big Winners1. Southern Illinois: The Salukis defeated Butler on the Bulldogs' home court, making an even stronger case for a #3 seed.

2. Winthrop: When your RPI suffers as a result of your conference affiliation, the Golden Eagles have to capitalize on every opportunity and capitalize they did.
T-3: Drexel & Bradley: Both teams were not supposed to win, especially if you watched the first 10 minutes of each game. Rebounding at both ends of the floor and never giving up earned these two teams victories crucial to their at-large bid resumes.
5. The WAC: The top seven teams in the conference won their games while the two that didn't carried 7 wins into Saturday ... combined. Expect heavy consideration for a second bid even if Nevada steamrolls through the conference tournament.

Honorable Mention: Appalachian St. defeated a hungry Wichita St. team who is just starting to come around after a disastrous January. DJ Thompson hit 'the shocker' to stun the crowd at Koch. Add that to neutral court victories against Vanderbilt and Virginia, as well as a road victory at VCU.

The Losers
1. VCU: They needed a win against a RPI top-50 opponent. They failed. No excuses.
2. Creighton: The home loss to Drexel appears worse than it actually is because Drexel has played less than stellar basketball in the last two months, falling earlier this week to William & Mary. Bluejays fans will now have nightmares about Frank Elegar for days on end.
T-3. Wichita St. & Missouri St.: Had Wichita pulled this off, I wonder if the media would've hailed this a quality win. Same case with Missouri State. Teams like Winthrop and Appalachian St. often get disrespected by pundits because of ignorance. When the day is done, the conference RPI of 7 is called into question following losses like these.
5. Butler: A win against a quality opponent would have refreshed the minds of fans who saw them win the Preseason NIT. Graves' bout with the flu made matters worse.

BracketBusters Underway: Winthrop Wallops MVC #3

Earlier this year, I did not talk up the Winthrop Eagles. Ok, I'm lying. I did. I told you that they weren't afraid to play anyone anywhere. That's why despite being down 8 points late in the first half, they did not buckle and eventually coasted to a 77-66 victory at Missouri State.

Currently, Winthrop stands at 22-4 (12-0 Big South) with all four losses to teams (UNC, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Maryland) currently in the projected field of 65. They present a very interesting case to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee should they not win the automatic bid in the Big South.

The Wrap Sheet
RPI: 81
Record v. RPI top 100: 3-4
Big Wins: @ Mississippi St. (70), @ Old Dominion (52), @ Missouri St. (34)
Bad Losses: None

The Hidden Truth

Long story short, Winthrop is a victim of its own conference. There are only 2 conferences with a lower RPI than the Big South, and their representatives are permanent fixtures in the play-in game. On the non-conference side of things, absolutely no one will play Winthrop at home. Not just the majors, but the solid mid-majors as well. In fact, four of Winthrop's five true non-conference home games were against non-D1 opponents - Mount St. Mary's (RPI: 271) being the only in Division I.

Ultimately, the Winthrop argument for an at-large bid will be a moot point should they coast in the Big South tournament. Should they not win, remember during Championship Week that they have capitalized on more opportunities (and a much higher percentage of them) than many of their potential bubble compatriots have.