NCAA Tournament Projections – Version 6.0

(Editor’s Note: In order to adjust for personal bias, I have not allowed myself to project a team over another in a one-bid unless they are within one game of first place.)

Georgetown represents one of the biggest climbers this week and I am now projecting them to be the Big East’s automatic bid. A few weeks ago, they weren’t among the field, but Hibbert and Green seem unstoppable, especially when games are on the line. The injury to Aaron Gray (status undetermined) allowed me to give the Hoyas the nod for this week. Staying in the Big East, Louisville justified the Pitt slaughtering on Monday at Peterson [where Pitt almost never loses] by shell-shocking Marquette in Milwaukee on a buzzer-beating 25-foot shot.

Three changes in the land of the non-BCS conferences take place. First, despite Gonzaga’s valiant effort in a loss to Memphis, two home losses in the space of a week when the national microscope was magnified on them following the dismissal of Josh [S]Heytvelt (16ppg, 8rpg) puts them 1.5 games behind Santa Clara in the West Coast Conference and out of the current at-large picture. Second, VCU showed zero poise versus Bradley, and unfortunately, this is a microcosm of the last three weeks since their loss at Hofstra. Meanwhile, ODU seems to find a way to win no matter what the situation and have the fundamentals down pat. For those reasons and many others, we have the Monarchs projected to win in Richmond. Third, Jackson State regained first place in the SWAC, so they’re once again projected to participate in the “opening round game”.

The controversial inclusions are Drexel and Appalachian St. Appalachian St. got the nod not only due to their win at Wichita St., but also because Vanderbilt, a team they knocked off, defeated Florida. As for Drexel, they are a road machine and the selection committee loves that. After laying a major egg at William & Mary, the Dragons overcame their offensive woes behind the shooting of Mejia and the inside game of Elegar to defeat Creighton in Omaha. If both teams win out and lose in the finals of their conference tournament to the current projected champions, both will be at the whims of projected conference representatives who must take care of business during Championship Week.

The Big Ten middlers – namely, Purdue, Michigan St., and Illinois - should suffer for either scheduling only home games and/or cupcakes during non-conference play. Ultimately, a 4^th team should separate itself at the conference tournament.

Seed	East	South	Midwest	West
1	North Carolina	Florida	Wisconsin	UCLA
2	Ohio St.	Georgetown	Kansas	Texas A&M
3	Washington St.	Southern Illinois	Memphis	Pittsburgh
4	Nevada	Virginia Tech	Vanderbilt	Duke
5	Marquette	Air Force	Virginia	Kentucky
6	Butler	Oregon	USC	Indiana
7	Texas Tech	Boston College	Maryland	Stanford
8	Arizona	Louisville	Creighton	UNLV
9	Alabama	Texas	BYU	Missouri St.
10	Xavier	Tennessee	Villanova	Winthrop
11	Old Dominion	Purdue	Georgia	Appalachian St.
12	Oklahoma St.	Drexel	West Virginia	Notre Dame
13	Holy Cross	Davidson	Akron	Santa Clara
14	Pennsylvania	Texas A&M – Corpus Christi	Oral Roberts	Long Beach St.
15	Vermont	South Alabama	Marist	Austin Peay
16	Delaware St.	Jackson St./Central Connecticut St.	E. Tennessee St.	Weber St.

Seedings
1s: Florida, Wisconsin, UCLA, North Carolina
2s: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Kansas, Georgetown
3s: Southern Illinois, Memphis, Washington St., Pittsburgh
4s: Nevada, Duke, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
5s: Kentucky, Virginia, Air Force, Marquette
6s: USC, Indiana, Butler, Oregon
7s: Stanford, Boston College, Texas Tech, Maryland
8s: Arizona, UNLV, Creighton, Louisville
9s: BYU, Alabama, Missouri St., Texas
10s: Tennessee, Villanova, Winthrop, Xavier
11s: Old Dominion, Georgia, Purdue, Appalachian St.
12s: West Virginia, Drexel, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame
13s: Akron, Davidson, Santa Clara, Holy Cross
14s: Penn, Oral Roberts, Long Beach St., Texas A&M CC
15s: Vermont, Marist, South Alabama, Austin Peay
16s: E. Tennessee St., Weber St., Delaware St., Central Connecticut St., Jackson St.

In: Texas Tech, Louisville, Appalachian St., Drexel, Santa Clara
Out: Clemson, Kansas St., Florida St., VCU, Gonzaga

Last Four In: Appalachian St., Drexel, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame.
Last Four Out: Michigan St., Illinois, Bradley, Kansas St.
Next Four Out: Georgia Tech, Arkansas, Clemson, VCU

Summary
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
PAC-10: 6
SEC: 6
Big 12: 5
Big Ten: 4
Missouri Valley: 3
Mountain West: 3
Colonial: 2
Southern: 2