Clement's Weekly Picks and Prognostications...Week 11

...sans intro...

NFL Picks: 28-16 [Of all the games to get wrong, I'm happiest it was a 47-3 victory for the Jets.]
Upset Specials: 7-7 [It's the return of the...oh wait...no way...he didn't just say, what I think he did, did he?]

While you won't find any New England/NY Jets talk...I will mention one key name you'd never expect. Jet LB David Bowens has mighty shoes to fill behind Kris Jenkins with David Harris still injured and out of the lineup. This is an unknown X-factor to the "press".

Credit: Flckr.com

Arizona @ Seattle (+3)
If Arizona had lost Monday night, this game would've taken on a whole new level of interest. Instead, greedy fantasy owners feast off of the Cardinals while Matt Hasselbeck returns as the starting QB...but for how long? Cards win, by much more than 3 in not-so-tough Seattle.

Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3)
Jacksonville is 4-5 and definitely can't afford 6 losses after 10 decisions. Meanwhile, Tennessee aired it out last week and won in Chicago. With another tough road test, I have to wonder if 10-0 is in their future? Yes. Why? Titans can stop the run. Jags can't win without it.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh (-4 1/2)
Rivers' stats are overinflated this season. This game is in Pittsburgh and the Stillers aren't losing back-to-back there. Their O-Line better beat up on a banged up Charger D. The real key in Pittsburgh is the health of "Fast Willie" and whether or not Santonio Holmes can be at least mildly productive this weekend. The Steelers - as well as a few fantasy owners - need that desperately.

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay (-3 1/2)
The 1/2 scares me; however, this game means way too much in both the NFC South, NFC North, and NFC Wild-Card. While APete is my #2 in the MVP-race (behind Warner), the Bucs D is rested and their offense should have a healthy Joey Galloway, Warrick Dunn, and even word of Cadillac Williams getting carries. I'm taking the home team to frustrated Frerotte into a pick-six (or two) and a vastly important home victory...somehow.

Upset Special #1
Dallas @ Washington (+2)
Most books won't take bets because of injury concerns to Romo (returning) and Portis (50/50) so early in the week. Not me. The Cowboys have too many new faces returning (Romo, Newman, & Jones) for me to pick them on the road. However, a win equals 6-4 and makes the NFC more wide open than ever. Interesting, if nothing else.

Upset Special #2
Denver @ Atlanta (-6)
Who would've ever imagined this number in Week 10 at the beginning of the season? NOBODY. While Jay Cutler may break down carrying this team, I don't want to give the Falcons too easy a road to 7-3. I imagine this being a FG type game. Extra interesting with new-kid Prater battling Bronco-vet Jason Elam. While I like the Falcons, I don't by 6.

Top Ten Fantasy Insights of the Week...You Didn't Expect
1) Depending on wideouts - even your Andre Johnson and Brandon Marshall types - isn't safe come fantasy playoff stretch run.
2) Larry Johnson...avoid starting him this or any week.
3) Thomas Jones isn't going to have another 40-point week, but he's a weekly start now.
4) There's still enough upside to start guys like Steve Breaston.
5) Tony Gonzalez may quietly be this season's highest scoring tight end.
6) Defenses can win fantasy championships. Seriously.
7) Marvin Harrison just might be done.

Oh yeah, three NFL Thoughts to finish out the top 10.

8) Atlanta is going to make the playoffs.
9) So is Baltimore.
10) One of the above teams won't...obviously.

Until next time!

Fantasy Advice YOU Can Actually USE!!!!

So you can’t decide which fantasy magazine to purchase? The one with Adrian Peterson in the purple home jersey or the one with the white away jersey? Or maybe the one that has “sleepers” like Braylon Edwards (16 TDs last season) or to avoid drafting Brett Favre in the early rounds (anybody heard the “rumor” that he might be coming back to play!).

Look at Brett Favre play in the snow. It's like he's a kid again!!!

Credit: YouthBlog.org

Or you could listen to the “savvy” ESPN-ites who suggest it’s a good idea to target Tom Brady and avoid Kellen Clemens. Ditto for Randy Moss and Arnaz Battle.

So I shouldn’t take Nate Burleson as my top wideout? How about a 1-2 running back punch of Felix Jones and Kevin Smith? Yes, I said Kevin Smith (not Jones, get over him for once!).

In the end, we’ll all just settle on taking LT first (even when we have the 10^th pick). If only he’d fall!

Any idiot with a pulse knows Brady, Manning, and Palmer are legit early-round QBs. What you need is someone who might tackle a more pressing QB-issue, like the health of Jake Delhomme.
Credit: RawSportsBlog

In the end, the “real” fantasy analysis won’t come from anywhere but your own head. Put aside that McNabb jersey that’s been tattering for years in the back of your closet. Don’t hold the Patriots being cheaters against them. Just because David Tyree won you a TON at Vegas from that catch, he isn’t viable for the swing position at WR/TE.

Use your head, avoid the pains of the heart and stick with the surest thing. That is, unless the risk is just too good to be true (ala Moss in 2007? YES!)

Here’s the first of many – or so I say – or five, to be exact, issues you better solve quickly before your fantasy draft approaches.

Of course, I’ll answer them for you…but if I’m wrong, at least I posed the questions.

Question #1: Is it time to give up on Marvin Harrison?

Yes, this is an inflamed bursa sac. Also known as a "Marvin Harrison-knee".
Credit: Eorthopod

In a word, YES. First off, Manning, Addai and Wayne are absolute studs. They all actually have the potential to be tops in their respective positions. Yes, I said that about Joseph Addai. Nevertheless, Harrison’s knee may never be the same. Now, while he’s easily a candidate for 80+ receptions, 1100+yards and 6-10 TDs, his value has shrunk. While you can’t lump him in with an Arnaz Battle or a Patrick Crayton yet, it’s only fair to remember Harrison can’t be your #1 receiver (unless you completely neglect the position). Harrison will struggle to recover and might struggle to deal with being THE #2 guy officially. Avoid it at almost all costs, people.

Question #2: Who’s the can’t miss kid: LT or Peyton Manning?

Sorry ESPN the AD (I mean MAG), APete might be NEXT...but he isn't fantasy's #1...yet.
Credit: ESPN.com

Manning’s bursa-sac/knee issue isn’t anything to lose your sleep over. In fact, it’s more than likely that the entire issue is resolved weeks before Week 1. While Brady won’t tab 50 TDs again (I guarantee that in writing, of course), Manning and Touchdown Tom should each push 40. I guarantee that. Meanwhile, despite the LJ 2006 and Stephen Jackson 2007 love being sent this season to Adrian Peterson (anybody else remember how banged up he gets EVERY year), LT is the MAN to covet as an RB (and frankly as a wideout some weeks). While either LT or Manning could be one hit away from missing an entire season, outside of the impenetrable Brady (even with a “boot”), it’s highly unlikely any other two players would miss substantial time. While it’s a coin flip, always take the higher scorer according to your league’s points. Simple as that.

Question #3: What will the departure of Donte Stallworth mean to the Patriots offense?

Yeah, the picture is pretty random. But he hasn't suited up for the Browns yet, and we DO KNOW it snows a lot in Cleveland. Call it an alternate uniform. Just imagine the Hang Time they get!!!
Credit: AltaSnowMobile

More than you might think, seriously. Without having to target Donte for 2-3 screens or inside slants, that means another deep ball to Mossy Moss and Wes “Silent Trashtalker” Welker (where’s your ring again?) gets another dump off or two. The real impact may go towards another few carries to “underachieving fantasy boy” Maroney or even “tippy-toes-bobbling-against-Baltimore” Gaffney. While Gaffney isn’t the strongest of weekly starts, pegging him those “right” 3-4 weeks will be very nice for the luckiest of owners. Enjoy the Dawg Pound, Donte.

Question #4: Will the Jets offensive line save the fantasy-career of Thomas Jones?

Don't let the "experts" fool you with the easy picks, this guy was the consensus top free agent available on most teams' lists.
Credit: CNNSI.com

Jones, averaging a meager 3.6 yds/carry last season, overcame a bumbling offensive line, mediocre QB play and a lack of downfield threats at the wideout spot (Cotchery is solid though) to rush for 1100+ yards. Of course, he had one TD (he waited until Week 16, too) and was an overall letdown in all conceivable fantasy leagues. Nevertheless, Alan Faneca arrives and the Jets bolster their O-Line, but not enough. The tight end and #3 wideout position are only less unproven than the QB situation. Jones is a #3 RB at best. Knowing the depth and importance of that position, that means taking Jones as your #2 RB is a mistake because that’s where he’ll likely be selected. Good luck C-I-T-Y Guy.

Question #5: Who is this season’s most likely candidate to pull a “Not so Action” Stephen Jackson (of 2007)?

Too easy of a joke? Yeah, probably.
Credit: FilmPeek

Jackson wasn’t a total bust but he was a complete and utter bust in 2007 due to injury. So what do you do? You suck it up and draft him again. Yep, draft him again. As for who will pull the rug from under everyone? The smart money has Adrian Peterson getting dinged (don’t protect him with Chester Taylor too early either folks) far too often for a top 3 pick OR Derek Anderson struggling with the bigger money contract. But that’s too easy. I want a challenge! I’m going out on a limb and saying Eli Manning will still be an all-too-typical 22-24 TD/16-20 INT guy. Whoops, that bandwagon is full ESPN! Instead, I’ll go a different route and say that Marion Barber III will break down too early and fail to reach 800 yards, 8 TDs or 15 catches. He won’t be that #1 you want. SORRY COWBOYS!!!

That’s all I gots…for now. Join me later for more fantasy focus and frenzy.

And a little more Pats hating! And a little bit MORE!!!

Until next time…

Quick Hits: The Weekend Version

Busy, busy, busy times. Here are ten random ramblings that only scratch the surface on a busy sport’s week.

…in no particular order…
1. Calling the Diesel.
Shaq is back…for now. Averaging 22.5 ppg since D-Wade’s injury, the big fella has seemed more energetic, much more physical, and incredibly motivated to carry the Heat. Question is: can he really keep this up? Yes and no. While the injury bug can’t bite him as hard when he’s this focused and working so hard, the Heat’s best hope, sans-Wade, is to actually meet the Pistons in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. Yes, you read that correctly. Only by knocking them out early could they sustain enough momentum to ride the big fellow deeper into the playoffs.

2. Carmelo v. Coach.
Don’t let management fool you, George Karl can only win this argument for so long. Karl might be making a huge mistake calling out his star when the majority of the blame is due to a poorly constructed team (thanks Kiki). It’s one thing to address the consistently bad shots of a shooter, but another to pretend his lack of defense is the only major reason for an underachieving squad.

3. Mavs drive for 70.
From 0-4 to 51-9, Big D has become a team about D. Yes, Dirk flops a lot. But he is also the MVP this season (barely, over Nash) and Josh Howard is the closest thing to Scottie Pippen-in-the-mid-90s we’re gonna see these days (sorry Lamar). While I seriously doubt they can hit 70 (which entails, despite a current 16-game streak, winning 19 of 22 to close out the season in which they may clinch #1 in 2-3 weeks), Avery Johnson has his team as ready as they possibly could be to take home the NBA Title finally.

4. Running Backs on the Move.
Thomas Jones is now a Jet. Willis McGahee a Raven. Jamal Lewis a Brown. Dominic Rhodes a Raider. Reuben Droughns a Giant. Travis Henry a Bronco. Ahman Green a Texan. Tatum Bell a Lion. All of these moves should aid their respective new teams. However, the Jets and Ravens clearly made the top moves in this grouping…by quite a margin, in fact, for what they had to pay.

5. Big Money for the Big Boys.
Wanna see overspending at its best? Escape a place like Express or Abercrombie and venture over to the NFL. Only there could Leonard Davis get $50 million. Seriously. Derrick Dockery is worth $49 million? Not a chance. Eric Steinbach worth $49.5 million? Maybe $29.5, at best. I just hope guys like Wade Smith, Luke Petitgout, and Anthony Clement won’t see $10-million plus in guarantees anytime soon. Hutchinson’s contract last year with the Vikes broke the bank to say the very least.

6. Bubble’s bursting.
As of Saturday…VCU held suit in the CAA. Winthrop did as well in the Big South. Butler did not in the Horizon. Neither did Xavier in the A-10 or Nevada in the WAC. The Zags took home the WCC title to escape the bubble. Creighton more then solidified its standing from the MVC. And we still have plenty of tournaments to go. Big eyes focused on NC State, Illinois, Kansas State, Arkansas, and Mississippi State (among others) in the next two days.

7. One Seeds.
Let’s be foolish and assume a few things: Ohio State matches up with Wisconsin in the Big Ten final. Kansas wins the Big XII title. UCLA is done in the Pac-10 tourney (okay, we do know that). Florida wins the SEC. UNC wins the ACC. Wow. How do you choose those four #1s now? Here’s how: East-UNC, South-Florida, Midwest-Ohio State, West-Kansas. This is assuming Ohio State defeats Wisconsin again, moving the Badgers to the East regional as a #2. If the Badgers win, can you flip-flop Ohio State to a 2 or do you push out someone? Don’t get me started on a new scenario please. UCLA fans are already starting their hate-mail against me...

8. Last Four In, Last Four Out.
Heartbreaking words for a lot of teams this year. My major prediction of predictions? Everyone is sleeping on the one big-name school who will get in as a joke (much like Air Force last year, which was much more conference-affiliated than big name). The CAA will see either Drexel OR Old Dominion sadly be sent to the NIT. It's a cold, hard truth I'm staring to realize. Probably due to a school like Stanford, Illinois, or Arkansas. That's just wrong.

9. Simon says Suspension.
Once a year or so, some hockey player does something downright horrific and senseless. It’s talked about for a few days, shunned by everyone involved, the player acts remorseful, and ghastly reviewed highlights are shown over and over and over. Finally, a big suspension is handed out. Problem solved? Not a chance. It happens again a year later. My advice? Suspend Simon for two seasons without pay. And if he ever commits a similar offense, under ANY circumstances, enforce a lifetime ban and blackout his name from every history book the NHL has to offer. It’s time for zero tolerance in hockey. And more italics.

10. Dice-K’s Arrival.
Looks promising thus far. But just like any of the Cubans that the Yankees sign (surprising the BoSox spent more this off-season than the Evil Empire, or is it?)…wait until a primetime outing against a fierce lineup (such as against New York, Detroit, Anaheim, or Chicago) before we immortalize him Cy Young: Part Deux. Also wait until the pitching motion catches up with hitters, ala Hideo Nomo and Jose Contreras over the next two or three seasons.

Sounds like a good rant to me…except for this.

Fox Sports Radio is the worst thing going today.
I'll take the 4-Letter Network any day for my sports radio.