Monday, July 21, 2008

Fantasy Advice YOU Can Actually USE!!!!

So you can’t decide which fantasy magazine to purchase? The one with Adrian Peterson in the purple home jersey or the one with the white away jersey? Or maybe the one that has “sleepers” like Braylon Edwards (16 TDs last season) or to avoid drafting Brett Favre in the early rounds (anybody heard the “rumor” that he might be coming back to play!).

Look at Brett Favre play in the snow. It's like he's a kid again!!!

Or you could listen to the “savvy” ESPN-ites who suggest it’s a good idea to target Tom Brady and avoid Kellen Clemens. Ditto for Randy Moss and Arnaz Battle.

So I shouldn’t take Nate Burleson as my top wideout? How about a 1-2 running back punch of Felix Jones and Kevin Smith? Yes, I said Kevin Smith (not Jones, get over him for once!).

In the end, we’ll all just settle on taking LT first (even when we have the 10th pick). If only he’d fall!

Any idiot with a pulse knows Brady, Manning, and Palmer are legit early-round QBs. What you need is someone who might tackle a more pressing QB-issue, like the health of Jake Delhomme.
Credit: RawSportsBlog

In the end, the “real” fantasy analysis won’t come from anywhere but your own head. Put aside that McNabb jersey that’s been tattering for years in the back of your closet. Don’t hold the Patriots being cheaters against them. Just because David Tyree won you a TON at Vegas from that catch, he isn’t viable for the swing position at WR/TE.

Use your head, avoid the pains of the heart and stick with the surest thing. That is, unless the risk is just too good to be true (ala Moss in 2007? YES!)

Here’s the first of many – or so I say – or five, to be exact, issues you better solve quickly before your fantasy draft approaches.

Of course, I’ll answer them for you…but if I’m wrong, at least I posed the questions.

Question #1: Is it time to give up on Marvin Harrison?

Yes, this is an inflamed bursa sac. Also known as a "Marvin Harrison-knee".
Credit: Eorthopod

In a word, YES. First off, Manning, Addai and Wayne are absolute studs. They all actually have the potential to be tops in their respective positions. Yes, I said that about Joseph Addai. Nevertheless, Harrison’s knee may never be the same. Now, while he’s easily a candidate for 80+ receptions, 1100+yards and 6-10 TDs, his value has shrunk. While you can’t lump him in with an Arnaz Battle or a Patrick Crayton yet, it’s only fair to remember Harrison can’t be your #1 receiver (unless you completely neglect the position). Harrison will struggle to recover and might struggle to deal with being THE #2 guy officially. Avoid it at almost all costs, people.

Question #2: Who’s the can’t miss kid: LT or Peyton Manning?

Sorry ESPN the AD (I mean MAG), APete might be NEXT...but he isn't fantasy's #1...yet.

Manning’s bursa-sac/knee issue isn’t anything to lose your sleep over. In fact, it’s more than likely that the entire issue is resolved weeks before Week 1. While Brady won’t tab 50 TDs again (I guarantee that in writing, of course), Manning and Touchdown Tom should each push 40. I guarantee that. Meanwhile, despite the LJ 2006 and Stephen Jackson 2007 love being sent this season to Adrian Peterson (anybody else remember how banged up he gets EVERY year), LT is the MAN to covet as an RB (and frankly as a wideout some weeks). While either LT or Manning could be one hit away from missing an entire season, outside of the impenetrable Brady (even with a “boot”), it’s highly unlikely any other two players would miss substantial time. While it’s a coin flip, always take the higher scorer according to your league’s points. Simple as that.

Question #3: What will the departure of Donte Stallworth mean to the Patriots offense?

Yeah, the picture is pretty random. But he hasn't suited up for the Browns yet, and we DO KNOW it snows a lot in Cleveland. Call it an alternate uniform. Just imagine the Hang Time they get!!!
Credit: AltaSnowMobile

More than you might think, seriously. Without having to target Donte for 2-3 screens or inside slants, that means another deep ball to Mossy Moss and Wes “Silent Trashtalker” Welker (where’s your ring again?) gets another dump off or two. The real impact may go towards another few carries to “underachieving fantasy boy” Maroney or even “tippy-toes-bobbling-against-Baltimore” Gaffney. While Gaffney isn’t the strongest of weekly starts, pegging him those “right” 3-4 weeks will be very nice for the luckiest of owners. Enjoy the Dawg Pound, Donte.

Question #4: Will the Jets offensive line save the fantasy-career of Thomas Jones?

Don't let the "experts" fool you with the easy picks, this guy was the consensus top free agent available on most teams' lists.

Jones, averaging a meager 3.6 yds/carry last season, overcame a bumbling offensive line, mediocre QB play and a lack of downfield threats at the wideout spot (Cotchery is solid though) to rush for 1100+ yards. Of course, he had one TD (he waited until Week 16, too) and was an overall letdown in all conceivable fantasy leagues. Nevertheless, Alan Faneca arrives and the Jets bolster their O-Line, but not enough. The tight end and #3 wideout position are only less unproven than the QB situation. Jones is a #3 RB at best. Knowing the depth and importance of that position, that means taking Jones as your #2 RB is a mistake because that’s where he’ll likely be selected. Good luck C-I-T-Y Guy.

Question #5: Who is this season’s most likely candidate to pull a “Not so Action” Stephen Jackson (of 2007)?

Too easy of a joke? Yeah, probably.
Credit: FilmPeek

Jackson wasn’t a total bust but he was a complete and utter bust in 2007 due to injury. So what do you do? You suck it up and draft him again. Yep, draft him again. As for who will pull the rug from under everyone? The smart money has Adrian Peterson getting dinged (don’t protect him with Chester Taylor too early either folks) far too often for a top 3 pick OR Derek Anderson struggling with the bigger money contract. But that’s too easy. I want a challenge! I’m going out on a limb and saying Eli Manning will still be an all-too-typical 22-24 TD/16-20 INT guy. Whoops, that bandwagon is full ESPN! Instead, I’ll go a different route and say that Marion Barber III will break down too early and fail to reach 800 yards, 8 TDs or 15 catches. He won’t be that #1 you want. SORRY COWBOYS!!!

That’s all I gots…for now. Join me later for more fantasy focus and frenzy.

And a little more Pats hating! And a little bit MORE!!!

Until next time…


Sum said...

Clement, Clement, Clement. You're a likable guy ... really you are. But you've got to put your Pats-envy aside and remind yourself that it's been about 40 years since the Jets even got to the Super Bowl :-)

All jokes/ribbing aside, the Brady/Manning call you make is an interesting one. On the one hand, most logical people know that 50 TDs one season guarantees far less than 50 TDs the next (just ask Peyton about how he followed up his 49 TD season). But I'm not so sure that Peyton will put up better #'s than GQ Brady this season either. Although Brady's lost Stallworth, Manning has lost Harrison. Aside from that, I'd call their "weapons" pretty much even. In my honest opinion it'll come down to whether or not Brady will be able to be "Mr. Cool" again like he was for about 14 weeks of the regular season, and also to how much Manning overthinks things (his greatest weakness, and mine).

I may have to rely on the Magic 8 ball on this one ...

Clement said...

It's really tough when a Pats fan is educated and not covered in a Youklis-style goatee.

Nevertheless, I have to hate...even on an 18-0 team.

And yes, 40 long long long years. Sadly, it'll be 80 before I know it.

Although Super Bowl III, and the SUPREMELY OVERRATED Namath, did finally force the NFL to merge with AFL and for the league to grow into what it was today.

Would it have happened anyways? Of course. But we Jet-fans have to believe its more important than just, "The Greatest Sports Upset of (its time or all-time?).

I will draft Brady in almost any league possible; however, I dub Manning and LT fantasy sure-things because of the last 5 years.

True over that time Brady has been far from average; however (I like that semi-colon and transition today), he hasn't been the force (especially in leagues we've seen) Peyton and LaDanian have been.

Of course, now he not only deserves that accolade, but owns it.

Just another thing for "Mr. Cool". Not a cool nickname. "Joe Cool" was. "Touchdown" Tom. Or maybe "God's Chosen Golden Boy" work better.

Someone has been smiling on Bostonians for far too long.

But at least it hurt Kobe.

At least it hurt Kobe.

Now it's time for a fist-pound to the chest, ala Gasol after a wussy tap-in putback, and sleep.

G'night New England.


Paymon said...

These are some of your best YouTube clips rolled up into one.

I love the education provided by the picture of the inflamed bursa sac. Can't get that from SportsCenter.