Saturday, October 03, 2009

Your Job's Your Credit!!! Week 4 NFL & Fantasy Predictions

Much like the opening two titles to this weekly column (Lightning in a Bottle, I’d Like To Touch Jennifer’s Body, Falling, Falling, Falling) and we’re sticking with the nonsensical title route. In fact, it's not going ANYWHERE anytime soon.

Time for the 10 Questions of the Week...

Is Cedric Benson truly a must-start in fantasy these days. Absolutely!!!

1) Which fantasy star will be missed most on Sunday rosters: Michael Turner or Larry Fitzgerald?
2) Can the Jets survive their trip to the Superdome down two corners (Sheppard and Strickland)?
3) Will Rashard Mendenhall take advantage of his opportunity this weekend in a primetime game?
4) Is LT going to be an injury nightmare each and every weekend?
5) Are Virginia Tech players naturally undisciplined in the NFL?
Seriously, check out the names and consider it.
6) Which Redskin back should've been traded MOST a few years back: Portis or Betts?
7) Might the Lions have a different type of streak (
winning?) in mind after this weekend?
8) Who's your post-4 Weeks MVP gonna be?
Does his name rhyme with Shmoo Schmees?
9) Which Saints wideout will see the most of Darrelle Revis?
10) How many INTs do you have for Derek Anderson this Sunday?

Weekly Picks
Last Week: 5-2 (Carolina played closer than 14 points - a late pick-6 doomed me - and Miami suffered from a Pennington injury on their trip out West. The game was brutal beforehand, although much closer. Still a solid week.)
Season Total: 12-6 (I'm picking tougher games, with fewer cupcakes than most. I'm gonna set a target of 20-10. It's gonna take a rock solid Week 3 to do so.)
Upset Special: 3-1 (The Phins had won 7 in a row in San Diego and were giving 5.5 points. I bit off more than I could've chewed. Colts big @Zona was an easy call, but far too many people made it.)
Survivor Selection: 3-0 (Picking the Ravens to annihilate the Browns wasn't exactly rocket science.)

Let's make these short and sweet...

Guess who is your NFL touchdown leader after Week 3. Yeah, Mr. McGahee.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Jack Del Rio sucks and the Jags have the worst "homefield advantage" in the NFL. Look for the Titan D to wake up and stack the box against MJD. Titans roll.

Baltimore Ravens @ New England Patriots (-1 1/2)
The game is in Foxboro. I want to see Joe Flacco drive his team down the field when they're trailing in a key game. Oh wait, he did that in the Divisional Round last year. Too bad Brady has done it a lot more. Pats win, barely.

Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos (-3)
Denver could win this game and become a quasi-legit 4-0 game. Tashard Choice is the best RB in Dallas. Because he gets carries on Sunday afternoon, Dallas wins a close one.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (-10)
Same old Lions. Bears roll as Forte FINALLY gets on track. Although memo to fantasy owners, his rookie season may be his statistically best. Exactly how many Bear RBs have staying power in Chicago since Sweetness. Zippie.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Redskins (-7 1/2)
They're teasing you to take the Bucs. Don't. Who the hell is Josh Johnson anyways? At least we don't have to hear teases about a 3-1 Skins team (which would be a complete fraud).

Upset Special #1
San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-7 1/2)
Not sure about LT, Polamalu, or why this spread is so big. What I do know is Phillip Rivers isn't intimidated by anyone. I like the Stillers, but not at this number to cover.

Upset Special #2
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings (-4)
A-Rod typically doesn't win games like this, on the home or on the road. Ironically, it could be Ryan Longwell who walks away with the game-winning points (another former Packer). Notice who's name I'm not mentioning? This number won't be covered, one way or another.

…Survivor Selection… [Gone: New England, Minnesota, and Baltimore]
NY Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs
You can't pick on the Browns and Rams every week. Plus, both have divisional matchups. Give me the Giants, who reved up Jacobs quite a bit last week. Things are gonna continue to stink for Todd Haley and company.

Fantasy Studs and Duds
[Note: Scoring this week was a tricky as it has been in recent memory. Let me explain.]

...Last Week...[4-3-1, 15-11-1 on the year. Iffy iffy]

Boo Ya: Santana Moss was LARGE, Brett Favre was retro-Favrian in a GOOD way, while Watson and Maroney STUNK up the joint.

What the ???: Matt Cassell completed only 9 passes, but two were for TDs. Len Dale White barely got any touches, but in TD-heavy leagues...he did score one.

Meh: Manningham had less than 60 yards, Shockey didn't eclipse 75 but was over 50 as a tight end, and Berrian caught a season-high but was nowhere near 100 yards or a touchdown. White didn't have 10 touches not 30 yards though, so his TD was neutralized in points per touch leagues quite a bit. Tricky tricky to interpret. Gonna call it 1-1-1. for this week...

A big "holla" to all Santana Moss owners this weekend. Expect a back-to-back BLOWUP!!!

1) Earl Bennett will catch one of Jay Cutler's 3 TDs this weekend. A Chicago Bear QB is gonna toss 30+ TDs this season. His name is Jay Cutler.
2) Heath Miller will choose this weekend to catch one of his 3 TDs on the season. If you're in a pinch, waiver-wire the Steeler tight end.

3) Eddie Royal is breaking out of his funk this week with 75+-yards and a TD. Bank on it.
4) The Titans D is out there in a ton of leagues. The Jags will make them look good, with at least 1 pick-6 this weekend.

1) Don't expect much from Cadillac Williams or Derrick Ward this weekend. Not much at all.
2) Lee Evans is going to end up being the biggest loser in the soon-to-be TO melodrama in Buffalo.
3) Glen Coffee isn't going to be the fantasy-beast you expect this weekend.
4) Zach Miller isn't the only Oakland starter you should have in your fantasy lineup. No Raider should earn that honor.

Parting Thought of the Week


A two time winner of the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award, Chad Pennington's career should be appreciated...even if it may be over. The guy has been discarded a few too many times (especially by the team I love) and he's responded with class, dignity, and more than a few wins. A few of my fondest memories...
A) Leading the Jets to a 41-0 dismantling of Peyton Manning and the Colts on Wild Card Weekend.
B) Following a preseason injury, he cheered on his team and worked the playcalling on the sideline (unlike Michael Vick, who was wheeled around in a wheelchair by his team owner).
C) Flexing his gun, with a torn rotater cuff, after a deep TD pass during a road win against San Diego on Wild Card weekend.

Chad...hope to see you back under center next year.

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